Israel Reframing the Iran Threat
- Israel now views Iran’s ballistic missile program as a more urgent threat than its nuclear activities, citing lessons from the June conflict.
- Netanyahu is pressing Washington to treat missiles as weapons of mass destruction and to consider strikes on Iranian missile production infrastructure.
- Iran insists its missile program is non-negotiable, while analysts warn that enforcement and monitoring would be extremely difficult even under a new agreement.
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to meet US President Donald Trump in Florida on December 29, the agenda centers on Iran -- with a twist.
Israel is laser-focused on Iran’s ballistic missile program, which it views as the most urgent existential threat after the US-Israeli strikes severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure during a 12-day aerial campaign in June.
This shift highlights a growing US-Israel divergence. Trump has repeatedly described Iran's nuclear threat as "obliterated," crediting wartime bombings of sites in Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. Israel agrees the program is set back by a year or two.
However, it warns that missiles -- which Iran is working to amass -- could soon overwhelm defenses, as demonstrated when 36 out of 550 missiles struck Israeli soil in June, causing widespread damage.
Missiles As 'Immediate' Priority
Israeli officials, speaking to NBC News and Axios, describe Iran's missile ramp-up as "more pressing" than its nuclear program.
Israel says the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has carried out drills and has warned Washington that Tehran might use the exercises as cover for surprise attacks.
This comes amid contradictory reports in Iran over whether missile tests are actually taking place. Iranian media, including the IRGC-affiliated Fars news agency, reported on December 22 that the armed forces were conducting drills, with users on social media sharing videos and footage of contrails in the skies over central and western Iran. However, the state broadcaster swiftly denied the reports, citing an unnamed "informed source" who insisted the contrails were from "high?altitude aircraft" and claimed that no exercises were underway.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief Eyal Zamir hinted at readiness for new strikes against Iran "wherever required," prioritizing production lines that Israel fears could churn out 3,000 missiles annually.
Netanyahu plans to present Trump with strike options -- Israeli-led, joint, or US-backed -- arguing missiles enable proxy wars via Hezbollah and Houthis while shielding Iran’s nuclear revival.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that Israel is pressing the United States to reclassify missiles as weapons of mass destruction.
“Israel is trying to shift this view, using the recent war's experience to convince the United States that Iran's missile capabilities are as existentially threatening as its nuclear ones,” Nadimi said.
He noted US reluctance, viewing nukes as the core danger, now degraded, but added, “From Israel's standpoint, these should count as weapons of mass destruction for its people.”
Nadimi warned that total missile destruction could force a doctrinal pivot in Tehran.
“If Israel fully destroys Iran's offensive missile capabilities... it would either have to surrender or make a fundamental doctrinal shift,” he said, adding that Iran's technical path to nuclear warheads remains feasible in a secure lab using 90-percent enriched uranium stocks.
Iran’s Missile Red Line
Iran has long maintained that its missile program is non-negotiable, asserting it is purely defensive. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei reiterated this on December 22:
“The defensive capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been designed with the aim of deterring aggressors from any thought of attacking Iran. Under no circumstances are they a matter that can be discussed or negotiated.”
Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, noted that while the United States and Israel may want different things from Iran, they converge on one point: “Iran is weakened now, so it's time to extract more concessions.”
Iran has capped the range of its missiles at 2,000 kilometers, though in recent months it has hinted it could increase the limit if it deems necessary. Azizi said the United States and Israel want Iran to reduce the range of its missiles -- a non-starter for Tehran.
Even in the unlikely scenario of an agreement on Iran’s missile program, he noted that Washington is aware enforcement would be difficult, given the absence of any international monitoring body or safeguards regime for missile programs.
Against this backdrop, Azizi argued that missiles serve as pressure leverage:
“First, to make Iran fully abandon [uranium] enrichment on its soil; second, to secure concessions on arms transfers to groups such as Hezbollah or the Houthis.”
Iranian Media Gleeful Yet Concerned
Israeli rhetoric around Iran’s missile program has been met with a mixture of delight and alarm in Iranian media.
Highlighting Iran’s pace in replenishing its missile arsenal following the June war, the IRGC-affiliated newspaper Javan said Israel was “terrified” of Iran’s ability to launch hundreds of missiles in a potential conflict. The same sentiment was echoed by other hard-line outlets, such as Mehr news agency.
But others have urged caution. Bultan News argued that Netanyahu was exaggerating Iran’s ability to restore its missile stockpile to justify an attack. It added that Tehran must take the rhetoric seriously.
“Every piece of news or report that is published can be part of a larger puzzle. Distinguishing which news is real and which is psychological warfare is not easy. But making that effort is a national security necessity,” it argued.
By RFE/
Iran in ‘comprehensive war’ with US, Israel, Europe, president says
December 28, 2025 
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during a press conference after arriving at Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, Iran on September 27, 2025. [Iranian Presidency – Anadolu Agency]
Iran is in a state of “comprehensive war” with the United States, Israel, and Europe, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Saturday, Anadolu reports.
“We are in a state of comprehensive war with the United States, Israel, and Europe,” Pezeshkian said in an interview published on the official website of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“This war is more dangerous, more complex, and more difficult than the war with Iraq” between 1980 and 1988, he added.
The Iranian leader accused the US, Israel and some European countries of supporting the collapse of Iran.
“The situation during the war with Iraq was clear: they fired missiles and we knew where to strike. But today, they surround us from all sides, apply pressure on us, obstruct our trade, and raise public expectations inside society in various fields.”
During a 12-day war with Israel in June, the US military struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities – Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan – using bunker-buster bombs.
The strikes came more than a week after Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, killing senior military commanders and nuclear scientists and also targeting some nuclear sites.
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