Friday, June 06, 2025

OCT.7 BAD TRIP

When trauma and psychedelics meet: new Reichman University study finds reduced anxiety and PTSD among Nova festival survivors




Reichman University

Dr. Zohar Rubinstein of the Baruch Ivcher School of Psychology at Reichman University 

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Dr. Zohar Rubinstein of the Baruch Ivcher School of Psychology at Reichman University

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Credit: Oz Schechter





A groundbreaking new study conducted by researchers from Reichman University and other Israeli  institutions explored the psychological aftermath of the deadly terrorist attack at the Nova Festival in southern Israel. The attack, which took place on October 7, 2023, claimed the lives of nearly 400 people and left hundreds more physically and psychologically wounded. Three weeks after the massacre, the researchers administered in-person psychological questionnaires to 343 survivors aged 18–64, examining the participants’ mental state, the psychoactive substances they consumed before and during the festival, and the ways those substances may have affected their physical and psychological response to trauma.

 

While the phenomenon of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and anxiety following exposure to war and terrorism is becoming an increasingly pressing global mental health concern, scientific understanding about the neurobiological mechanisms underlying the development of these conditions remains partial and limited. To date, most knowledge in the field is based on research in animal models, rather than on direct evidence from humans exposed to extreme traumatic events — especially not under the influence of mind-altering substances. This is what makes the Nova Festival an exceptional event — it was a real-world situation, as opposed to a laboratory simulation, in which trauma and psychedelics intersected.

 

The study’s findings show that survivors who had used “classic” psychedelics — including hallucinogenic mushrooms (psilocybin), LSD, mescaline, and 2C-B — reported significantly lower levels of anxiety and post-traumatic symptoms compared to those who had not used psychedelics or who had consumed other substances, such as MDMA, cannabis, or alcohol. These results remained statistically significant even after controlling for factors such as age, gender, previous psychiatric history, and prior psychedelic use. For example, while the average anxiety symptom score across the entire sample was 1.90, it dropped to 1.38 among the survivors who had taken classic psychedelics.

 

Dr. Zohar Rubinstein of the Baruch Ivcher School of Psychology at Reichman University said: “This is a powerful example of the simultaneous exposure of almost 4,000 people to a traumatic event on a massive scale. The survivors’ willingness to cooperate with us during such a difficult time allowed us to examine the effects of psychedelics at a relatively early stage of symptom onset, and in a more natural setting (compared to therapeutic settings). These data are of great clinical importance.”

 

Einat Karp Barnir, a clinical psychologist at the Baruch Ivcher School of Psychology at Reichman University, said: “A few days after October 7th, I began volunteering as a clinical psychologist in a healing space. After dozens of conversations I had with survivors, I started to notice that some of those who had been under the influence of certain substances appeared to show milder symptoms — less anxiety and fewer post-traumatic responses. Around the same time, I came across an article claiming that substance use could increase the post-traumatic stress of those who were at the Nova Festival. The discrepancy between what was being said in the media and what I was seeing on the ground sparked the idea for this study. I contacted Dr. Zohar Rubinstein, and we decided to explore the connection between the type of substance taken at the party and the severity of psychological responses after the event. At a time when understanding and treating trauma is more relevant than ever, there is still a lack of sufficient information about the factors that influence the formation of traumatic memories. Our study sheds light on the differing effects of various substances and contributes to our understanding of how traumatic memories are formed and retained. Such an understanding could one day not only improve treatment, but even help prevent the development of PTSD.

 

Prof. Rany Abend of the Baruch Ivcher School of Psychology at Reichman University said: “What the survivors have given us — through tremendous courage — is a unique glimpse into how mind-altering substances affect the formation of trauma, based on their personal experiences. The main finding of our study indicates that the brain systems activated by classic psychedelics are involved in the connection between the experience of a life-threatening event, the formation of a traumatic memory, and the emergence of psychological symptoms.”

 

This study adds to a growing body of research on this important topic, provides new insights for researchers and therapists, and presents real-world evidence that the use of classic psychedelics may reduce trauma symptoms — an important finding with implications for both research and clinical practice.

 

However, the researchers emphasize the need for caution. “The study’s findings are not intended to encourage the free and unsupervised use of psychedelics, nor do they suggest that such use constitutes a form of treatment,” Dr. Rubinstein clarifies. “Rather, they point to potential mechanisms — which need to be further investigated — that may explain how supervised use within an integrative psychological treatment setting may yield therapeutic benefits.”

 

 

Self-harm in adolescence: young people report on strategies to alleviate mental suffering in a booklet



The publication, which resulted from a project conducted at the Federal University of São Carlos, is available in Portuguese and English and has the potential to be an important, low-cost therapeutic and educational tool.



Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

 




Adolescence is a time of intense emotional and social transformation when many young people face significant psychological challenges, including social isolation and self-harm – the practice of intentionally harming oneself without suicidal intent. It is estimated that one in seven adolescents suffers from a mental illness, with around half of these cases beginning before the age of 14. In addition, it is estimated that 14% of adolescents have self-harmed at least once in their lives, using this behavior as an attempt to cope with internal distress, such as depression, anxiety, or trauma.

This type of behavior is not just an isolated symptom; it is a reflection of deep suffering that directly impacts the young person’s quality of life. Self-injury can affect self-esteem, interpersonal relationships, and school performance, and it increases the risk of suicide. Unsurprisingly, adolescent mental health has become a global concern in recent years, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies indicate that symptoms of depression increased by 26% and symptoms of anxiety increased by around 10% among young people up to age 19 during the health crisis. In Brazil, the number of self-harm cases among young people increased by 21% between 2011 and 2022.

In 2018, before the pandemic, Luiza Cesar Riani Costa, a psychologist and then a student at the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, carried out a scientific initiation project funded by FAPESP. It aimed to understand issues related to non-suicidal self-harm among young people. Specifically, it sought to understand how adolescents who experienced this self-harm conceptualized the phenomenon and why it occurred. The results revealed that adolescents viewed self-harm as a means of alleviating emotional suffering, underscoring the importance of a welcoming environment to cope with psychological pain.

“At the time, self-harm was a relatively new phenomenon in Brazil, but it gained prominence after some social media challenges encouraged many teenagers to cut themselves. A state school in São Carlos, where we had projects, noticed an increase in cases and encouraged us to research the issue,” says Professor Diene Monique Carlos, who now works at the University of São Paulo (USP) on the Ribeirão Preto campus.

After her undergraduate research, Costa continued her studies on self-harm among adolescents, during her master’s degree at the same university. Also funded by FAPESP, the study explored the meaning of non-suicidal self-harm in greater depth.

The research findings were transformed into the booklet What relieves my pain: photos and experiences of adolescents, which has been made available digitally to schools, health services, and professionals working with adolescents. The project was also presented at the 15th Ibero-American Congress of Qualitative Research (CIAIQ2025) in Spain and published in New Trends in Qualitative Research.

The origin of the booklet

To develop the booklet, Costa began a qualitative research project that did not require a large number of participants, as the aim was to gain a deeper understanding of the situation. Nine adolescents between the ages of 12 and 17 who were experiencing psychological distress, had a history of self-harm and had spontaneously volunteered to participate in the project were assessed.

One of the highlights was that all of the adolescents were female, which was a coincidence since boys were also invited to participate but showed no interest. “We noticed a strong gender issue present, so we came up with another project that focuses specifically on boys. Why don’t they seek help?” asked Professor Diene Carlos, the project supervisor.

Costa began by asking the following question: “What relieves your pain?” She then asked the teenagers to answer using photographs they had taken, showing other strategies they would use to cope with difficult situations that cause them pain, as long as they did not involve self-harm. The research used the Photovoice methodology to accomplish this. Photovoice is a technique widely applied in contexts of vulnerability in which images are used as a form of expression to address sensitive issues. “It’s a methodology often used by researchers in situations where it’s difficult to talk about a certain subject,” Carlos explains.

The participants had two weeks to photograph scenes that answered the question. At the end of the period, Costa received 50 images. The initial idea was to discuss the photos with the teenagers, but due to the pandemic, this was not possible (the interviews took place between March and July of 2021). For this reason, the material was analyzed individually. The photos served as a starting point for deeper reflection guided by questions such as: “What do you see in this photograph?” “What motivated you to take this photo?” “What does this image awaken in you?” and “How does this relate to self-harm?”

The images depicted scenes of nature, pets, and physical activities, such as skateboarding and cycling. They also depicted moments of cooking, art (with drawings, music, and films), affection, and spirituality. After a reflective analysis, the teenagers came up with the idea of jointly creating a booklet to showcase the photos and what they meant as a way of drawing attention to the issue and helping other teenagers who might also be suffering.

“Contact with the girls revealed that what they were doing was more complex and profound than merely creating coping strategies. They were showing in a totally creative way what sustained them,” wrote the author of the study in a letter to the reader presented with the public defense of her master’s degree.

According to Carlos, despite their individual particularities, it was possible to identify common elements in the photographs produced by the teenagers when analyzing them: a focus on nature, the importance of emotional relationships, the presence of family, affection for animals, music, films, and other forms of artistic expression. “We found many similarities among the images, so we concluded that they could resonate with other teenagers. For us, this was the most beautiful moment of the research since the original idea wasn’t to have a booklet,” says the advisor.

The publication is available in Portuguese and English and has the potential to be an important, low-cost, therapeutic, and educational tool, especially as it uses accessible language that resonates with adolescents. “Self-harm is still very present in the lives of these young people as a way of alleviating pain and suffering. That’s why this tool can be used to explore other ways of alleviating this pain,” says Carlos.

About FAPESP

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration.

 

Researchers uncover hidden airport hotspots in global wildlife trafficking using AI



New study highlights predictive power of AI in identifying airports used as key nodes in illegal wildlife trade networks



University of Southern California




A study recently published in Communications Earth & Environment reveals how AI and network science can help authorities and conservation organizations combat the illegal wildlife trade by identifying trafficking hubs—even at previously unflagged airports and before incidents are reported.

Researchers from the University of Southern California School of Advanced Computing (a unit of the USC Viterbi School of Engineering) and the University of Maryland, College Park, analyzed characteristics of almost 2,000 global airports.

Their model predicted 307 airports as potentially involved in illegal wildlife trading, despite no recorded seizures in the available data. Of those, 11 emerged as high-confidence “hidden hotspots” — including two U.S. airports, Dallas Fort Worth International and Denver International, that had not been previously flagged in global trafficking databases.

The predictive model used patterns in historical trafficking data and current insights about key airport features, such as an airport’s centrality within flight networks, to identify locations likely involved in the illegal trade. The incidence of flora-related crimes at an airport, along with the strength of local counter-trafficking or law enforcement resilience measures, also emerged as significant predictors.

This approach offers conservation organizations, federal agencies and other decision makers novel insight into global illegal wildlife trade patterns via airports. In addition to the U.S. airports, other hotspots were identified in China, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, and the Philippines.

The paper, titled “Encoding and Decoding Illegal Wildlife Trade Networks Reveals Key Airport Characteristics and Undetected Hotspots,” was lead authored by Hannah Murray, a Ph.D. student in the Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science at USC, with co-authors USC Computer Science Associate Professor Bistra Dilkina, co-director of the USC Center for AI in Society, and Meredith Gore, a professor and research director in the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland, College Park.

“These findings can empower decision-makers to make more proactive choices on how to prevent wildlife trafficking, rather than the current reactive approaches,” said Murray, a student leader at the USC Center for AI in Society (CAIS).

“The most significant outcome of our model is the practical insights it offers to those invested in combating the illegal wildlife trade, such as how to allocate limited resources and prioritize where interventions are needed to make the most impact.”

Revealing the unseen

The illegal taking, trading, and transporting of wild animals, plants, and their products is a major driver of biodiversity loss—but efforts to curb this activity remain underdeveloped, said Dilkina, a leader in the AI for biodiversity conservation space.

“Illegal wildlife trade is the second biggest threat to wildlife after habitat loss and fragmentation, and we urgently need to address it more effectively in order to preserve key biodiversity,” she said, “Yet, the knowledge and data-driven tools available for the fight against wildlife trafficking are limited. It doesn’t have to be this way.”

Murray, who discovered her passion for wildlife conservation while working on her master’s in data science at Georgia Tech, where Dilkina previously taught, said her work is inspired by the challenge of revealing what is “unseen” in the illegal wildlife trade.

“What we do know comes from documented seizures,” she said. “But what about the incidents that go undetected or are never reported? Our model offers a tool for making those invisible patterns visible.”

From insight to action

Armed with this new information, customs authorities could consider starting or increasing cargo and hand-luggage screening at the newly-flagged airports.

“Airlines operating at those locations might also require crew members to complete annual wildlife trafficking awareness training, such as those offered by the International Air Transport Association,” said Gore. “In parallel, the conservation community could step up engagement with the airline and passenger transport sectors in Oceania to support awareness-building, monitoring, and improved data collection.”

Understanding complex relationships

Dilkina’s research on data-driven methods to combat wildlife trafficking includes a prior NSF-funded project focused on detecting and interdicting illicit supply chains, and an ongoing major international initiative called Operation Pangolin, which brings together cutting-edge sensor technology, big data, AI, and interdisciplinary conservation science to combat one of the world’s most trafficked species.

Dilkina emphasized the potential of this latest work to inform our understanding of the complex relationships between wildlife trafficking and airport operations.

“Using machine learning models allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between the different factors that may play a role in the likelihood of illegal wildlife trade activity at an airport,” said Dilkina.

“Importantly, we can also use the model to extrapolate beyond the training data to airports that may not have prior seizures reported and hence uncover possible hidden hotspots.”

A foundation for the future

The research expands on earlier National Science Foundation-funded work by USC alumnus Aaron Ferber, now a postdoctoral researcher at Cornell University, who developed an AI model to predict flows of illegally traded wildlife.

The team hopes this latest study will lay a foundation for future research that gives decision-makers a stronger, data-driven edge in combating illegal wildlife trade. The approach could also be adapted to address other forms of illicit activity, such as drug and human trafficking.

“Authorities and conservation actors have been frustratingly stuck reacting to offenders who are constantly innovating,” said Gore. “This research leap-frogs over these challenges using the best available open data, exposing previously entombed information about the illegal wildlife trade in the global airline network and laying a soundtrack for a substantial advancement in computational approaches with regard to conservation criminology and team science.”

 

Western researchers show the effects of nostalgia on our desire to groove to familiar songs



Nostalgia for songs like ‘TiK ToK’ and ‘Call Me Maybe’ get twenty-somethings up and dancing


University of Western Ontario





\Getting one’s groove on, A.K.A. busting a move, is an age-old tradition that dates back more than 50,000 years to the time of Neanderthals and Cro-Magnon humans, who rhythmically writhed to drumming and even vocalizations.

Many contributing factors influence why we get a sudden urge to move to music, often referred to as groove, but familiarity with a song or tune is key.

In a recent Western University study, neuroscientists investigated groove beyond familiarity, digging deeper into the largely unexplored influence of nostalgia. That feeling involves familiarity but also taps into pleasant, sad and even wistful emotions. The study builds on ongoing research on understanding why we move to music and potential therapeutic benefits of musical rhythm for patients with movement disorders, such as Parkinson’s disease.

“Groove is the pleasurable urge to move to music. When we are studying the motor system in people with and without movement disorders, the brain spontaneously lights up when they listen to music. It really does seem to be about the rhythmic aspects of it,” said Grahn, a psychology professor and director of Western’s Centre for Brain and Mind. “Every great wedding DJ inherently knows this, and now, we have the scientific results to back it.”

Grahn, PhD candidate Riya Sidhu and their collaborators studied the impact of both familiarity and nostalgia on the desire to tap, move and dance along to music. They found nostalgic songs elicited a higher desire to get groovy than familiar songs across all three movement categories.

“The more familiar you are with a song, the more likely you are to enjoy it. And familiarity and nostalgia are inherently very tied to each other, because the more you know a song, and the more it makes you feel, the more it’s going to take you back to a special place and make you want to move,” said Sidhu, lead author of the study.

Pop hits are familiar, but not always nostalgic

To evoke nostalgia, the researchers selected popular songs from study participants’ adolescent years. As the participants were largely in their early to mid-twenties, the playlist included familiar hits released between 2009 and 2015 such as TiK ToK by Ke$ha, Call Me Maybe by Carly Rae Jepsen and Dynamite by Taio Cruz.

These three songs all scored very high for familiarity and nostalgia, but no song scored higher on familiarity than Katy Perry’s Firework. Alas, the Grammy-nominated anthem no longer hits quite right for twenty-somethings, as Firework scored amongst the lowest tested for nostalgia, along with OMG by Usher and featuring will.i.am and Glad You Came by The Wanted.      

The findings were published in the high impact journal, PLOS One.

For the study, participants completed an online experiment, rating songs based on their desire for three different movement types (tap, move and dance), as well as enjoyment, familiarity and nostalgia. Additionally, both familiarity and nostalgia predicted move and tap ratings, but only nostalgia emerged as a predictor for dance ratings.

Ke$ha’s TiK ToK, which spent nine weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100 in 2009, scored the highest for the ‘desire to dance’ category, edging Uptown Funk by Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars and Party Rock Anthem by LMFAO featuring Lauren Bennett and GoonRock.

“Our results suggest a distinctive role for nostalgia, beyond the influence of familiarity, in motivating the desire to dance,” said Grahn, a trained concert pianist who also studies how music is processed in the brains of those who have control movement dysfunction, as happens in Parkinson’s disease.

More recent songs like Don’t Start Now by Dua Lipa, Sucker by Jonas Brothers and Bad Guy by Billie Eilish served as a low-nostalgia but familiar control for the study.

 

Multitasking isn’t one skill: new study reveals it’s a mix of general and specific abilities 



University of Surrey




From checking emails while on a call to cooking dinner and helping with homework, we all operate through multitasking. But new research suggests that our ability to juggle multiple tasks isn't a single, universal skill. Instead, it is a combination of general abilities (applying across different situations) with more specific abilities (unique to particular multitasking situations).  This helps explain why past studies have reported conflicting gender differences in multitasking - often depending on the specific type of task used. 

The study, led by the University of Surrey and published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, brought together 224 university students who tackled nine different multitasking challenges.  

These challenges were carefully chosen to represent three main types of multitasking: concurrent multitasking, like talking on the phone while driving. Involves doing two things at once; task switching, such as replying to emails while attending to notifications, requires rapid shifts between two tasks; and complex multitasking, like managing a busy kitchen, demands prioritisation and flexible planning. 

By analysing individual differences in how participants performed on these varied tasks, the researchers discovered that no single multitasking ability explains performance across all tasks.  

Instead, they found that task-switching performance is largely driven by a general multitasking ability that applies broadly across different situations. However, concurrent multitasking and complex multitasking involve both this general ability and specific skills unique to those types of multitasking. For example, complex multitasking often demands more “working memory capacity” - the brain's ability to hold and manipulate information temporarily. 

 This helps explain why previous studies have produced conflicting results - often due to focusing on just one type of multitasking. For example, some research suggested women were better multitaskers (often based on task-switching tests), while other studies hinted men were superior (often based on concurrent multitasking tests). This new study suggests these differences might be due to the specific type of multitasking being measured, rather than a universal gender difference. 

Dr Alan Wong, Senior Lecturer and Programme Lead, MSc Psychology in Game Design & Digital Innovation at the University of Surrey, says: 

"These findings show that multitasking is not a one-size-fits-all skill. To understand and improve multitasking, we need to consider both the broad capabilities that apply across tasks and the specialised skills needed for specific situations." 

Dr Yetta Kwailing Wong, Lecturer at the University of Surrey, adds: 

“Training to improve multitasking abilities shouldn't focus on just one type of task. Instead, a variety of challenges is required to build both general multitasking ability and specific skills needed for particular scenarios.” 

 

[ENDS] 

  • Images of Dr Alan Wong and Dr Yetta Kwailing Wong are available upon request. 

China’s rare earth weapon changes contours of trade war battlefield

By Reuters
June 06, 2025 

In this photo, workers use machinery to dig at a rare earth mine in Ganxian county in central China's Jiangxi province.
 (Chinatopix via AP) (The Associated Press)

BEIJING — China has signaled for more than 15 years that it was looking to weaponise areas of the global supply chain, a strategy modeled on longstanding American export controls Beijing views as aimed at stalling its rise.

The scramble in recent weeks to secure export licenses for rare earths, capped by Thursday’s telephone call between U.S. and Chinese leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, shows China has devised a better, more precisely targeted weapon for trade war.

Industry executives and analysts say while China is showing signs of approving more exports of the key elements, it will not dismantle its new system.

Modeled on the United States’ own, Beijing’s export license system gives it unprecedented insight into supplier chokepoints in areas ranging from motors for electric vehicles to flight-control systems for guided missiles.

“China originally took inspiration for these export control methods from the comprehensive U.S. sanctions regime,” said Zhu Junwei, a scholar at the Grandview Institution, a Beijing-based think tank focused on international relations.


“China has been trying to build its own export control systems since then, to be used as a last resort.”

After Thursday’s call, Trump said both leaders had been “straightening out some of the points, having to do mostly with rare earth magnets and some other things.”

He did not say whether China committed to speeding up licenses for exports of rare earth magnets, after Washington curbed exports of chip design software and jet engines to Beijing in response to its perceived slow-rolling on licenses.

China holds a near-monopoly on rare earth magnets, a crucial component in EV motors.

In April it added some of the most sophisticated types to an export control list in its trade war with the United States, forcing all exporters to apply to Beijing for licenses.

That put a once-obscure department of China’s commerce ministry, with a staff of about 60, in charge of a chokepoint for global manufacturing.

The ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ questions sent by fax.

Several European auto suppliers shut down production lines this week after running out of supplies. While China’s April curbs coincided with a broader package of retaliation against Washington’s tariffs, the measures apply globally.

“Beijing has a degree of plausible deniability – no one can prove China is doing this on purpose,” said Noah Barkin, senior adviser at Rhodium Group, a China-focused U.S. thinktank.

“But the rate of approvals is a pretty clear signal that China is sending a message, exerting pressure to prevent trade negotiations with the U.S. leading to additional technology control.”

China mines about 70 per cent of the world’s rare earths but has a virtual monopoly on refining and processing.


Even if the pace of export approvals quickens as Trump suggested, the new system gives Beijing unprecedented glimpses of how companies in a supply chain deploy the rare earths it processes, European and U.S. executives have warned.

Other governments are denied that insight because of the complexity of supply chain operations.

For example, hundreds of Japanese suppliers are believed to need China to approve export licenses for rare earth magnets in coming weeks to avert production disruptions, said a person who has lobbied on their behalf with Beijing.

“It’s sharpening China’s scalpel,” said a U.S.-based executive at a company seeking to piece together an alternative supply chain who sought anonymity.

“It’s not a way to oversee the export of magnets, but a way to gain influence and advantage over America.”
DECADES IN THE MAKING

Fears that China could weaponise its global supply chain strength first emerged after its temporary ban of rare earth exports to Japan in 2010, following a territorial dispute.

As early as 1992, former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping was quoted as saying, “The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths.”

Beijing’s landmark 2020 Export Control Law broadened curbs to cover any items affecting national security, from critical goods and materials to technology and data.

China has since built its own sanctions power while pouring the equivalent of billions of dollars into developing workarounds in response to U.S. policies.

In 2022, the United States put sweeping curbs on sales of advanced semiconductor chips and tools to China over concerns the technology could advance Beijing’s military power.

But the move failed to halt China’s development of advanced chips and artificial intelligence, analysts have said.

Beijing punched back a year later by introducing export licenses for gallium and germanium, and some graphite products. Exports to the United States of the two critical minerals, along with germanium, were banned last December.

In February China restricted exports of five more metals key to the defense and clean energy industries.

Analysts face a hard task in tracking the pace of China’s approvals following the Trump-Xi call.

“It’s virtually impossible to know what percentage of requests for non-military end users get approved because the data is not public and companies don’t want to publicly confirm either way,” said Cory Combs, a critical minerals analyst with Trivium, a policy consultancy focused on China.

(Reporting by Laurie Chen in Beijing; additional reporting by Michael Martina in Washington and Victoria Waldersee in Berlin; editing by Kevin Krolicki and Clarence Fernandez)
Canada’s domestic tourism industry could net billions due to U.S. trade war: report

By The Canadian Press
 June 03, 2025 

Hundreds of people walk near the lighthouse in Peggy's Cove, N.S., Tuesday, July 4, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese

Canada’s tourism industry might be in for a boost as Canadians boycott the United States and spend their travel dollars closer to home this year.

In a report released May 29, the Conference Board of Canada estimates the net economic benefit for the domestic tourism sector could be as high as $8.8 billion.

The think tank said its April travel intentions survey suggests roughly 27 per cent of Canadian respondents are considering a trip to the U.S. in the next few years - down from more than 50 per cent in the same survey last November.

Statistics Canada data shows the number of Canadians returning to the country from the United States by car fell 35.2 per cent year-over-year in April - the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

“This shift is so unique. It’s driven by political and economic conflict,” said Kiefer Van Mulligen, senior economist at the Conference Board of Canada and the report’s author.


Van Mulligen said that 2025 was shaping up to be a return to normal for much of the tourism sector after years of recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.

But then came the tariff dispute — kicked off by the United States in early March after weeks of threats from President Donald Trump — and with it, a wave of “buy Canadian” sentiment north of the border.

While the Conference Board’s travel intention survey shows an uptick in the number of Canadians saying they planned to travel abroad to destinations outside the United States, a larger share of those surveyed said they were shifting their holiday plans to domestic destinations.

The report predicts that a weaker Canadian dollar, dragged down by the tariff dispute, will also hold back U.S. travel plans.

Van Mulligen said that if Canadian travellers spend even a portion of the money they’d typically spend in the States on a lengthy overnight trip in Canada, the knock-on impact would add billions of dollars to the Canadian economy this year.

“We might actually see some people spending more than usual on a domestic trip, travelling farther, staying longer, things like that,” he said.

“Even under more conservative assumptions, it seems like a net positive for tourism this year.”

Fears of an economic slowdown tied to the tariff dispute could also encourage Canadians to rein in spending and opt for more affordable “staycations,” Van Mulligen said.

An Ontario family might, for example, opt to drop a few hundred dollars on a week-long camping trip in Algonquin Park rather than spend a few thousand dollars at the Grand Canyon for a similar stay.

But if Canada faces a steep downturn due to the trade dispute, Van Mulligen said, travellers might dial back their spending altogether, mitigating the size of the overall bump for Canadian tourism.

Statistics Canada data also shows that Canada is seeing a drop in visits from American tourists — typically the country’s largest source of in-bound travellers.


Van Mulligen said the Canadian response so far to U.S. trade aggression has been careful not to “alienate” American travellers.

“The rhetoric in the trade war has been aimed primarily at the administration and the policies,” he said. “Hopefully, Americans still feel welcome.”

The Tourism Industry Association of Canada warned in an open letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney dated May 16 that a “prolonged reduction of U.S. visitors could have detrimental effects.”

“The rapid drop in American visitors in a number of markets is already threatening the viability of operators across the country and putting at risk the livelihoods of the more than (two) million Canadians employed in the sector,” the letter read.

The group called for a boost in international marketing of Canada as a travel destination and measures to streamline entry for international visitors.

But Van Mulligen noted that Canada is not alone in feeling slighted by U.S. trade aggression.

He said Canada could also pick up some “slack” from overseas tourists alarmed by Trump’s efforts to upend global trade and annex nations like Greenland.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 3, 2025.

Craig Lord, The Canadian Press