Friday, June 06, 2025

Papua New Guinea's genetic past through ancient DNA analysis

A new study reveals the significance of regional dispersals and local interactions in coastal Papua New Guinea

Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology

Papua New Guinea, illustration — image:
The new study combines ancient DNA analysis with archaeological and linguistic findings. Together, they paint a vivid picture of the pre-colonial societies that once inhabited the country's coastal regions. Illustration by Papua New Guinean artist Arison Kul.
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Credit: © Arison Kul for MPI-EVA

To the point

2.500 years of human history in Papua New Guinea: The first ancient genomes, dietary isotopes and plant microfossils from Papua New Guinea and the Bismarck Archipelago provide direct genetic evidence that refines our understanding of early dispersals and population interactions in the Pacific.
Distinct interactionspheres in the past and present: The study found that 2,000 years ago, different cultural and genetic groups inhabited the region for extended periods without mixing. The mosaic of cultures and languages today perhaps emerged 650 years ago, when networks reorganized after an environmentally challenging period. The new findings shed light on the complex settlement history and regional divergence among ancient communities.
Interdisciplinary approach: Combining ancient DNA, archaeology, and linguistics provides a more complete picture of how genetics, culture and environment influenced the rich diversity of Pacific societies.

Combining ancient DNA with dietary evidence and linguistics, the study paints a vivid picture of the pre-colonial coastal communities that once thrived in these lands. New Guinea, settled over 50,000 years ago, served as a vital launch point for early seafaring journeys into the wider Pacific—an epic chapter in human history marked by extraordinary navigational feats.

The Lapita cultural complex and early Pacific pioneers

Roughly 3,000 years ago, the Bismarck Archipelago became the cradle of the Lapita cultural complex, whose seafaring peoples, renowned for their intricate pottery and horticultural practices, and embarked on voyages that would reach as far as Vanuatu, Tonga, and Samoa. Yet until now, the genomic legacy of these early Pacific pioneers—and the islands they first called home—had remained unexplored.

"Our findings represent a significant milestone in our understanding of the genetic history of Papua New Guinea," says Dylan Gaffney, Archaeologist and co-author of the study. "For the first time, we have direct genetic evidence from ancient individuals, allowing us to refine our understanding of the Pacific past."

Co-existence in the Bismarck Archipelago

One of the study's most striking findings is the presence of individuals with completely Papuan genetic signatures on the island of Watom in the Bismarck Archipelago, where missionaries found the very first Lapita-style pottery in the early 20th century. The individuals excavated on the island are all younger than evidence for the arrival of the Lapita Cultural Complex. One of these individuals additionally displays a rare case of cultural cranial modification, suggesting the co-occupation of the island by genetically and culturally different groups.

Delayed mixing

The study also highlights the influence of migrations and interactions on the genetic makeup of ancient communities. From around 2100 years before present, the genetic profiles of individuals show varying degrees of genetic contributions associated with the arrival of the Austronesian expansion.

"Our analysis reveals a fascinating picture of the earliest encounters in the Bismarck Archipelago," explains Co-lead author Rebecca Kinaston. "Despite the co-occupation, it seems the different groups didn't mix for a long time, which is quite unusual for human encounters."

The delay in intermarriage and the presence of people with Papuan ancestry inform on a debated matter in Pacific human history: Did the first settlers in the remote islands of Western Remote Oceania arrive unmixed and, followed by people from New Guinea, mix on the islands? The new findings support previous studies, suggesting this is a likely scenario, and informing on the seafaring capabilities of Papuan ancestors.

Settlement of the Mariana Islands

One individual adds resolution to questions on the settlement of the Mariana Islands to the north of Papua New Guinea. Their genetic profile suggests the Mariana Islands were likely settled from Island Southeast Asia. This route, which required sailing against prevailing winds and currents, excludes the easier passage from islands northeast of New Guinea. "Despite some uncertainty due to a lack of ancient samples from the Philippines and Taiwan, our findings highlight the remarkable navigation skills of the early settlers of the Mariana Islands," says Cosimo Posth, one of the study's authors.

The analysis of two geographically close communities inhabiting the South Coast of Papua New Guinea between 500 and 150 years ago proved to be particularly interesting. Surprisingly, their ancestries started diverging 650 years ago, despite the absence of geographical borders. This divergence suggests the communities were shaped by distinct interaction spheres and cultural influences, with implications for our understanding of ancient trade networks and social dynamics.

Role of the environment in cultural diversification

"Our research highlights the intricate interplay between genetics, culture, and environment in shaping human history," says Johannes Krause, Director at the Max-Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology. "The genetic split coincides with a time of increased settlement activity and the emergence of regional trade networks after a climatically challenging period and highlights the role environmental factors might play in cultural diversification."

The recovery of ancient DNA from Papua New Guinea represents a remarkable feat, considering the challenges posed by the region's climate and terrain. The hot and humid tropical climates are detrimental to the preservation of organic material, including DNA. At the same time, multiple colonial invasions impacted these regions' cultural, genetic, and linguistic landscape. Investigating Papua New Guinea's human history through ancient genomes offers a glimpse into the hidden past of this culturally diverse and historically rich region.

Interdisciplinary approach

"This study underscores the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in unraveling the mysteries of human history," concludes lead-author Kathrin Nägele. "By combining archaeological data with cutting-edge genetic analysis and considering oral traditions, we can reconstruct a more comprehensive picture of our shared past."

The publication of these ancient genomes marks a significant step forward in our understanding of the genetic diversity and historical dynamics of Papua New Guinea. It invites further exploration and investigation, promising new revelations about the origins of the cultural and linguistic diversity of the diverse communities in the Pacific region.

The 2009 excavation on Watom Island, Bismarck Archipelago, Papua New Guinea.

Credit

Journal

Nature Ecology & Evolution

DOI

10.1038/s41559-025-02710-x

Article Title

The impact of human dispersals and local interactions on the genetic diversity of coastal Papua New Guinea over the past 2,500 years

Article Publication Date

4-Jun-2025

Climate risks found to heighten cryptocurrency volatility

Shanghai Jiao Tong University Journal Center

The relationship between the Bitcoin price and the CMAX indicator from 2011 to 2023 — image:
Three major crisis have marked the history of Bitcoin:
1) the European sovereign debt crisis,
2) the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange,
3) the period of increased cryptocurrency regulation, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Credit: Sirine Ben Yaala and Jamel Eddine Henchiri (University of Gabes, Tunisia)

Background and Motivation

Climate change poses systemic risks to global financial markets, yet its impact on cryptocurrencies remains understudied. Traditional finance research has extensively examined physical risks and transition risks in stocks and bonds, but cryptocurrencies’ unique characteristics demand specialised analysis. This study addresses a critical gap: how acute and chronic climate risks, coupled with technological and regulatory shifts, influence cryptocurrency volatility during crises. China Finance Review International (CFRI) is pleased to present the paper titled “Climate risks and cryptocurrency volatility: evidence from crypto market crisis”, which aligns with global calls to integrate climate considerations into financial stability frameworks, particularly as cryptocurrencies face increasing scrutiny over their environmental footprint.

Methodology and Scope

The study employed a fuzzy logic model to analyse non-linear relationships between climate indices (PRI/TRI) and cryptocurrency volatility. The fuzzy logic framework excels in handling uncertainty, making it ideal for capturing chaotic market responses to climate shocks.

Key Findings and Contributions

Climate Risks Amplify Volatility: Acute Risks and Chronic Risks significantly raise volatility. Transition Risks triggered sharp declines, underscoring the sector’s sensitivity to policy shifts.
Cryptocurrency Sensitivity: Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibited the highest volatility responses, reflecting their dominance and energy dependency. Litecoin and Ripple showed lower but still significant sensitivity, challenging assumptions that smaller altcoins are immune to climate risks.
Methodological Innovation: The fuzzy logic model achieved RMSE < 0.02 for most currencies, outperforming traditional linear models. A 3D surface plot visualised how PRI/TRI synergies drive volatility, revealing non-linear thresholds (e.g., PRI > 0.8 + TRI > 0.7 = extreme volatility).

Why It Matters

Investor Implications: Climate risks are no longer peripheral considerations but integral components of portfolio strategies. Investors must prioritise diversification and conduct rigorous stress-testing against PRI/TRI scenarios to safeguard their investments.
Regulatory Relevance: Regulatory frameworks must adapt to align with climate goals, incorporating measures like carbon taxes and incentives for renewable mining. This alignment is crucial for market stability. However, given the transboundary nature of crypto markets, global coordination is imperative.
Environmental Sustainability: The study underscores the urgent imperative for greener blockchain technology. Innovations such as proof-of-stake mechanisms and carbon offset initiatives are not just options but necessities.
Future Directions: Future research should extend the analysis to burgeoning segments, as they hold significant potential and challenges. Incorporating real-time climate data and investor sentiment metrics will enhance the granularity and relevance of our insights, which will enable stakeholders to navigate the intersection of crypto and climate with greater precision and foresight.

Discover high-quality academic insights in finance from this article published in China Finance Review International. Click the DOI below to read the full-text original!

Journal

China Finance Review International

DOI

10.1108/CFRI-09-2024-0575

Method of Research

News article

Article Title

Climate risks and cryptocurrency volatility: evidence from crypto market crisis

Do you trust me now?

Simplified “terms and conditions” contracts have a double-edged effect on consumer trust

University of Georgia

Consumers don’t trust what they don’t understand.

It makes digital service and social media companies that depend on dense terms of use contracts some of the least trusted companies out there.

But what if these companies were upfront about what consumers were giving up in return for free services? Researchers at the Terry College of Business wanted to know how much trust tech companies gain with more transparent user terms.

“You have these thousands of word-long contracts in a language that most ordinary people cannot understand,” said Tari Dagogo-Jack, an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Georgia Terry College of Business. “So, if you can rewrite this statement or rewrite sections of the contract in words that everyone can understand, then they should be more willing to trust you. But it’s a double-edged sword.”

Dagogo-Jack and his coauthor, Terry College legal studies associate professor Tim Samples, published their findings in the Journal of the Association for Consumer Research. They found that transparency increased consumer trust, but only to a point.

Samples’s past research focused on the digital contracting as well as international investment law. Dagogo-Jack’s work focuses on the consumer psychology of brands.

Decades of research show people believe and trust things that are easy to understand, but the average social media contract is 6,712 words in dense legalese. Some platforms use plain language summaries and other tools to help more laypeople understand what they’re agreeing to.

“We noticed that some platforms are taking a friendlier approach,” Samples said. “They still give you the legal jargon and the contract language, but they give you little plain English captions to go with it. It got our attention. And we were wondering: How would these be perceived by consumers and the public?”

In five studies, Samples and Dagogo-Jack presented consumers with different terms of use statements, either with or without plain language summaries. They asked how well participants understood the contracts’ terms, how much they trusted the company behind the contract, and how comfortable they felt sharing personal information with the companies.

Participants inherently trusted companies using plain language summaries more and were more willing to share personal information with them. Furthermore, that trust was driven by how well they understood the contract provisions.

“There was a symbolic interpretation of providing these summaries of the contracts and then there was the literal interpretation of what the contracts say,” Dagogo-Jack said. “Symbolically, the fact you are making it easy for me to understand is a great thing … Most companies aren’t doing that, so they’re clearly on my side.”

“On the other hand, because they’ve made it easy for me to understand, now I can read literally what they’re saying — ‘I’m taking your data, I can use it however I want, and you have no legal recourse.’ Obviously, I don’t want to give my data to a company like that.”

The space between the consumer perception of trustworthiness stemming from merely providing these summaries and the actual trust of consumers — once they read through the contract synopses — provides takeaways for marketers, consumer groups, and policymakers.

“This can be a marketing opportunity,” Samples said. “(Providing plain language summaries) provides a positive message around your contracting. You’re saying, ‘Hey, we’re not like the rest of these guys. We do things a little differently. We’re not trying to bruise you in this contracting relationship … We’re doing something reasonable here.’”

Companies such as Pinterest and Kickstarter are already taking advantage of this approach. Other tactics include Anthropic utilizing its own AI model to simplify user terms and Meta using video and interactive graphics to make their terms of use more approachable.

This could be good if users start choosing companies to do business with based on contract terms. If they gravitate toward services with more user-friendly terms in their contracts, that will incentivize companies to develop more user-friendly policies to attract users, Samples said.

On the other hand, the team also saw the danger of marketers engaging in “privacy washing” — employing friendly language and summaries to make users feel like they’re giving data to trustworthy entities.

“You’re not going to be able to summarize and animate your way to consumer trust if your company depends on selling access to people’s data to advertisers, and so on,” Dagogo-Jack said. “But that doesn’t stop them from trying.”

In the future, Dagogo-Jack and Samples hope to investigate how multimedia presentations and other aesthetic factors in terms of use contracts impact consumer trust in tech companies.

Journal

Journal of the Association for Consumer Research

DOI

10.1086/735026

Article Title

Plain English in User Terms: Spillover Effects of Enhanced Readability on Consumer Trust

Our online world relies on encryption. What happens if it fails?

Quantum computers will make traditional data encryption techniques obsolete

Boston University

In our hyper-connected world, we rely on encrypted communications every day—to shop online, digitally sign documents, make bank transactions, check our steps on fitness trackers.

But today’s encryption, which transforms data into unreadable formats to keep our information secure, is under intense pressure. Cybercriminals are increasingly sophisticated, and our networks—woven with cloud services and third-party platforms—are more vulnerable than ever. JP Morgan reports it repels 45 billion hacking attempts a day.

The most significant threat is something called Y2Q or Q-Day: the date quantum computers will make most current encryption methods obsolete. To grasp the scale, a quantum computer could do in a day what the world’s current fastest supercomputer would need millennia to accomplish: break RSA-2048 encryption, an algorithm that’s the backbone of internet security. It’s not an overstatement to say that, without encryption, the entire security of our connected world would collapse, threatening the stability of society. While Y2Q may be years away, there is also a growing need to boost the resilience of encryption. “Harvest now, decrypt later” attacks are escalating—a strategy where cybercriminals harvest encrypted data today with the intent of decrypting it later when quantum tools become available.

To address these challenges, a Boston University–led multidisciplinary research team, supported by a $3.6 million National Science Foundation (NSF) Growing Convergence Research award, is developing a groundbreaking, physics-inspired approach to data security and privacy. Their method reimagines the very foundations of encryption tools and they say it promises to be more robust, scalable, and future-ready in the face of rapidly evolving cyber threats. The team, which includes collaborators at Cornell University and the University of Central Florida, has just published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) that illustrates some of the ideas driving its approach to cryptography.

“We’re in a new era of technology, where the frontiers of computational capability lie at the intersection of classical and quantum computing, AI, and data security,” says principal investigator Andrei Ruckenstein, a BU College of Arts & Sciences Distinguished Professor of Physics. “The most urgent and complex challenges in these areas, such as safeguarding sensitive data or preparing for the quantum threat, cannot be solved by current encryption and security methods. What’s exciting about this work is that it introduces a true paradigm shift and provides new capabilities made possible only through diverse disciplines forging a fundamental change in thinking.”

Quantum computing taps into unusual properties of the very small—where particles can exist in multiple states simultaneously (quantum superposition) and stay connected over distance (entanglement), allowing a quantum computer to explore many possibilities at once, significantly speeding up certain computations.

“Our approach is expected to be inherently resistant to both classical and quantum attacks,” says Ruckenstein. “It would not only strengthen public confidence in AI systems, but also unlock new opportunities for data-powered, socially responsible innovation.”

Protecting Data During Use

Modern encryption methods, developed roughly 50 years ago, could not envision the computational demands of today—let alone those of the quantum era. Relying on hard-to-solve mathematical problems, these systems mostly only protect data in transit or at rest—leaving it exposed during use. That poses a problem for data-intensive applications like AI training models, which process vast amounts of data that is often private or confidential. Current approaches typically require models to decrypt data during training, leaving it exposed, or employ privacy-preserving techniques that slow processing speeds, making them difficult to apply at scale.

The BU-led NSF project offers a new path forward. The proposed scheme, called Encrypted Operator Computing (EOC), merges physics, computer science, and mathematics to develop scalable methods for computing directly on encrypted data—long considered the “holy grail” of cryptography.

“The approach is an alternative to Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), an elegant, state-of-the-art cryptographic tool, which has so far proven difficult to apply to large-scale practical problems,” says Ruckenstein.

The EOC allows users to manipulate and gain insights from confidential data without ever exposing the raw information to third parties. This level of security and privacy is essential for applications such as blockchain transactions, medical AI models, cloud services, and more.

“While our EOC method is designed to work on classical computers doing classical computations, the conceptual breakthrough behind it is quantum computation–inspired,” says Claudio Chamon, a CAS professor of physics. “In addressing the real-world challenge of computation on encrypted data, we also encounter fundamental questions, such as how many distinct ways a given computation can be expressed for a fixed-length circuit. We relate these questions to thermodynamic concepts like ‘entropy,’ which describes how unpredictable or random a system is based on how many ways it can be arranged.”

How entropy applies to computation is the subject of the team’s PNAS paper.

“In our framework, computation is represented as a circuit of logical elements, or gates, encoding elementary operations and which, when applied sequentially to the input data, implement the desired computation,” says Ruckenstein, who coauthored the paper with Chamon, Ran Canetti, a CAS professor of computer science, and Eduardo R. Mucciolo, a professor of physics at the University of Central Florida. “In the paper, we considered both the functionality and complexity of computational circuits—what the circuit is computing and how large a circuit is needed to implement that computation.”

The team’s physics-inspired approach treats complexity in computing as a thermodynamic quantity; thermodynamics relates to how things like heat and energy spread. The rules of thermodynamics govern how, for example, the heat diffuses in your morning coffee: as the heat spreads, the molecules become more distributed and disordered, their patterns more complex. None of which stops you from enjoying your coffee—but good luck recovering the history of all those erratic molecules. The researchers suggest that, in a computer circuit, its gates can similarly be disordered to hide information.

The PNAS paper proposes a dynamic process to obfuscate, or “hide,” any circuit by rearranging gates, randomizing its structure without altering its function. The aim is to not only scramble information fast, but also do so thoroughly—essentially destroying all patterns, so that a program is impossible to reverse engineer. The team’s vision is to create a trustworthy environment where both the data and programs that use the data stay hidden.

“Program obfuscation is an extremely powerful and versatile concept for protecting data, its processing, and its various uses in multiple scenarios and over time,” says Canetti. “However, it is notoriously hard to construct: to date, we have no general-purpose program obfuscation scheme that is even close to being practical. This exciting project has the potential to make program obfuscation a reality.”

Breaking Boundaries Through Convergent Research

The NSF-funded project aims to turn these cryptography concepts into practical tools. Together, the research team will develop the EOC framework into scalable, special-purpose hardware, merging physics-inspired insights about information with advanced cryptography and pure mathematics. The goal is to accelerate performance and make secure, privacy-preserving computing widely accessible for real-world use.

“By combining expertise from diverse areas, we can tackle problems from multiple angles at once—whether it’s understanding quantum behavior, designing new algorithms, or building better hardware,” says Mucciolo. “This synergy not only speeds things up, but also allows us to dive much deeper than any one discipline could alone. We’re uncovering connections that wouldn’t be visible without this kind of cross-disciplinary perspective.”

One of the team’s other contributors, Timothy Riley, a professor of mathematics at Cornell University, says the collaboration across disciplines is a “rare and precious opportunity” that is allowing the researchers “to understand each other’s languages, to learn from each other’s perspectives, and to share the models, problems, and abstractions that drive our work.”

Canetti, Chamon, and Ruckenstein were able to advance the work with the support of the Hariri Institute’s Quantum Convergence Focused Research Program, which facilitates convergent thinking and multidisciplinary collaborations across BU on crosscutting themes around quantum science and engineering. All three BU researchers are affiliated with the institute.

“The rise of digital infrastructure demands stronger security to protect our economy, privacy, and national interests,” says Yannis Paschalidis, a BU College of Engineering Distinguished Professor of Engineering, director of the Hariri Institute, and a member of the University’s Task Force on Convergent Research and Education. “Solving these complex challenges requires breaking down silos. This work shows how convergent research can drive real-world impact and unlock entirely new technological frontiers.”

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2415913122

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Circuit complexity and functionality: A statistical thermodynamics perspective

Article Publication Date

4-Jun-2025

Nationwide study finds that leaks in natural gas pipelines contribute to hazardous particulate air pollution

Society for Risk Analysis

New research finds that methane leaks in energy-intensive states like Texas

lower the air quality for people in neighboring states

Herndon, VA, June 4, 2025 -- In March 2022, 14 residents of a four-story apartment building in Silver Spring, Maryland, were hospitalized when a gas leak from a cut pipeline caused a major explosion. Every year in the United States, there are hundreds of natural gas (or methane) pipeline leaks -- caused by corrosion, equipment malfunctions, and construction activities. Methane leaks are not only dangerous; they contribute to air pollution and climate change.

A nationwide study of gas leak incidents, published in Risk Analysis, has revealed that gas leaks in one state have measurable impacts on neighboring states. For example, gas leaks in Texas, a state with extensive pipeline infrastructure and frequent incidents, were found to raise levels of PM2.5 in neighboring states like Oklahoma and Louisiana. (PM2.5 is a dangerous form of air pollution known as fine particulate matter, known to cause respiratory and cardiovascular issues when inhaled.)

“Pollutants like methane and its by-products (PM2.5) travel across state borders,” says Younes Ben Zaied, co-author of the study and professor of finance and sustainability at EDC Paris Business School.

He and colleagues used spatial econometric modeling to analyze the impacts of gas leak incidents from 2009 to 2019 in all 50 states, recorded by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Included in that database are the 2015-2016 Aliso Canyon Leak in California (one of the largest methane leaks in U.S. history); the 2018 Merrimack Valley Explosions in Massachusetts, which impacted over 40 homes; and numerous New York City underground leaks. Other data used in the analysis were annual average PM2.5 concentrations (for every state) over the same 10-year period from the Social Economic Data and Application Center (SEDAC) at Columbia University’s International Earth Science Information Network Center (CIESIN).

The results demonstrated that:

PM2.5 levels in a state are influenced by the energy intensity of neighboring states. For example, Illinois has moderate energy use per GDP but is surrounded by states like Indiana and Kentucky, which rely more heavily on coal and fossil fuels. This means that PM2.5 levels in Illinois can be partially explained by the energy consumption patterns of its neighbors.
Stringent environmental regulations are shown to reduce hazardous gas leaks and improve safety. Examples of high-performing states are California, New York, and Massachusetts. These states had lower reported leak incidents over time, higher pollution control investment per unit of industrial output, and beneficial spillover effects on neighboring regions, encouraging cleaner practices.

“We were surprised to find that even states with strong environmental regulations and cleaner energy practices are still affected by the energy intensity of nearby states,” says Zaied. “For example, an energy-efficient state with low energy consumption per GDP may still suffer from elevated PM2.5 levels if neighboring states are energy-intensive and leak-prone. So even if your state is doing everything right, gas leaks in neighboring states can still worsen your air quality.”

The message, adds Zaied, is that “cleaner air and safer infrastructure require interstate collaboration, not just local solutions.”

About SRA
The Society for Risk Analysis is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international
society that provides an open forum for all those interested in risk analysis. SRA was established
in 1980. Since 1982, it has continuously published Risk Analysis: An International Journal, the
leading scholarly journal in the field. For more information, visit www.sra.org.

###

Journal

Risk Analysis

Article Title

Spatial Dynamics of Natural Gas Leaks in the United States: Localized Impacts, Spillover Effects, and Policy Implications for Air Quality and Safety.

Article Publication Date

4-Jun-2025

Bat viruses similar to MERS have potential to jump to humans

Washington State University

PULLMAN, Wash.--A group of bat viruses closely related to the deadly Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) could be one small mutation away from being capable of spilling over into human populations and potentially causing the next pandemic.

A recent study published in the journal Nature Communications examined an understudied group of coronaviruses known as merbecoviruses — the same viral subgenus that includes MERS-CoV — to better understand how they infect host cells. The research team, which included scientists at Washington State University, the California Institute of Technology and the University of North Carolina, found that while most merbecoviruses appear unlikely to pose a direct threat to people, one subgroup known as HKU5 possesses concerning traits.

“Merbecoviruses – and HKU5 viruses in particular – really hadn’t been looked at much, but our study shows how these viruses infect cells,” said Michael Letko, a virologist at WSU’s College of Veterinary Medicine who helped to spearhead the study. “What we also found is HKU5 viruses may be only a small step away from being able to spill over into humans.”

During the past two decades, scientists have cataloged the genetic sequences of thousands of viruses in wild animals, but, in most cases, little is known about whether these viruses pose a threat to humans. Letko’s lab in WSU’s Paul G. Allen School for Global Health focuses on closing that gap and identifying potentially dangerous viruses.

For their most recent study, Letko’s team targeted merbecoviruses, which have received limited attention apart from MERS-CoV, a zoonotic coronavirus first noted in 2012 that is transmitted from dromedary camels to humans. It causes severe respiratory disease and has a mortality rate of approximately 34%.

Like other coronaviruses, merbecoviruses rely on a spike protein to bind to receptors and invade host cells. Letko’s team used virus-like particles containing only the portion of the spike responsible for binding to receptors and tested their ability to infect cells in the lab. While most merbecoviruses appear unlikely to be able to infect humans, HKU5 viruses – which have been found across Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East – were shown to use a host receptor known as ACE2, the same used by the more well-known SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. One small difference: HKU5 viruses, for now, can only use the ACE2 gene in bats, but do not use the human version nearly as well.

Examining HKU5 viruses found in Asia where their natural host is the Japanese house bat (Pipistrellus abramus), the researchers demonstrated some mutations in the spike protein that may allow the viruses to bind to ACE2 receptors in other species, including humans. Researchers on another study that came out earlier this year analyzed one HKU5 virus in China that has already been documented to have jumped into minks, showing there is potential for these viruses to cross species-barriers.

“These viruses are so closely related to MERS, so we have to be concerned if they ever infect humans,” Letko said. “While there’s no evidence they’ve crossed into people yet, the potential is there — and that makes them worth watching.”

The team also used artificial intelligence to explore the viruses. WSU postdoctoral researcher Victoria Jefferson used a program called AlphaFold 3 to model how the HKU5 spike protein binds to ACE2 at the molecular level, which could help provide a better understanding of how antibodies might block the infection or how the virus could mutate.

Up until this point, such structural analysis required months of lab work and specialized equipment. With AlphaFold, Jefferson generated accurate predictions in minutes. The results matched those recently documented by a research team that used traditional approaches.

Letko noted the study and its methods could be used for future research projects and aid in the development of new vaccines and treatments.

The research was funded through a research project grant from the National Institutes of Health. Jefferson’s work was supported by an NIH T32 training grant.

Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-025-60286-3

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Cells

Article Title

ACE2 from Pipistrellus abramus bats is a receptor for HKU5 coronaviruses

COI Statement

RSB is a member of advisory boards for VaxArt, Takeda and Invivyd, andhas collaborative projects with Gilead, J&J, and Hillevax, focused on unrelated projects. The remaining authors compare no competing interests.