Temperatures in Spain set to soar past 40C this week. Is climate change to blame?

Copyright AP Photo/Paul White

By Euronews Green
Published on 17/06/2025 -

With heatwaves on the horizon after a record-breaking May, here's how to keep yourself and others safe.


Spain is preparing for an unusually warm summer, hot on the heels of a record-breaking May.

In an update on Friday, national weather agency AEMET said there is a 60 per cent chance the country will be hotter than average from June through to August.

It follows searing temperatures at the end of last month, when the mercury climbed to 40.7C at the airports of Córdoba and Seville, and 37.5C in Zaragoza. Temperatures on 30 May averaged 24.08C - the highest reading for May since records began in 1950.

There is no doubt, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned before, that “human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increased frequency and intensity of temperature extremes”.

The last three summers have been Spain’s hottest on record - and summer 2025 looks set to continue that trend.

Related

‘Old statistics do not apply’: Record-breaking Arctic heatwave made 3C hotter by climate change

World sees second-hottest May on record as Europe faces rising drought concerns

Where will be the hottest in Spain this summer?

The likelihood of a warmer than usual summer rises to 70 per cent along Spain’s Mediterranean coast and the Balearic and Canary Islands.

The eastern coast - including Barcelona, Valencia, and the Balearics - is expected to experience frequent “tropical nights”, with temperatures failing to drop below 20C, and many consecutive days above 35C.

The summer forecast comes as AEMET issued orange‑level warnings for heat for today (17 June) in Córdoba and Seville countryside - where temperatures could hit 41C - and Vegas del Guadiana in Extremadura.

After a very rainy spring, there is no clear trend for rainfall this summer, the agency adds, though the usual pattern is long dry periods occasionally interrupted by storms.

To help people prepare for its increasingly hot summers, last year Spain’s Ministry of Health released a new map with more detailed heat alerts. It breaks the country down from 52 provincial areas into 182 meteosalud (or metro health) zones, providing a colour-based warning system for each.

The hyper-local heat alerts range from Green or no risk through to Red or high risk to health and life. Alongside a colour, these alerts come with information about sun exposure, hydration and symptoms of heat-related illness. There is even an English language version of the official heat alert website, to help alert tourists, students and newly arrived residents to the risk.

This year, Spain’s annual heat plan supplements the new meteosalud areas with a guide advising different administrations, health professionals and citizens when intense heat strikes. It follows a study from the Carlos III Health Institute, which determined the threshold for heatwaves in these different areas, taking into account variables like heat-related deaths.

Related  Italy, Spain, Germany: The European countries where the most people died from heat last summer

How is climate change turning up heatwaves?

Every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change, World Weather Attribution (WWA) states.

This is borne out by numerous previous analyses - including one that found extreme heat felt in Spain and Portugal in April 2023 would have been almost impossible without human-caused climate change.

2024 was the warmest year on record and the first calendar year where the global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide is the biggest contributor to global warming; its concentration in the atmosphere exceeded 430 parts per million (ppm) last month.

As average temperatures rise, the amount of weather at the ‘extremely hot’ end of the spectrum increases, making extreme heat events more frequent, longer, and more intense.
RelatedGlobal temperatures likely to exceed 1.5C limit over the next five years, WMO warns

How to stay safe during a heatwave in Spain

“Extreme heat is a silent killer, affecting people's health, social, environmental, and economic well-being, particularly women and vulnerable communities,” says Kathy Baughman Mcleod, CEO at Climate Resilience for All (CRA).

The women-led climate adaptation NGO shares five points to help people in Spain, Europe and beyond prepare for upcoming brutal heatwaves.

1. Know the signs of heat illness - for yourself and others

Recognise early symptoms like dizziness, headache, nausea, rapid heartbeat, and confusion. Heatstroke is a medical emergency. Watch closely for these in vulnerable groups:

Pregnant women may experience worsened dehydration and risk to the baby.
Low-income workers, especially outdoors, may ignore symptoms for fear of losing pay.
Older adults and children may not feel thirst or express discomfort clearly.
Co-workers can look fine in one moment, then collapse in the next. Learn to act fast.

2. Use trusted heat early warning systems

Download and follow AEMET for real-time, science-based heat alerts via app, SMS, or website. AEMET issues heatwave warnings by region, severity, and duration - use it to plan your day and check in on others.

3. Everyone's at risk now - even the fit and healthy

With rising temperatures, even healthy adults are suffering from heat exhaustion and heatstroke, especially during physical activity or prolonged exposure.

Don't assume you're immune. Hydrate constantly, rest in the shade or air conditioning and schedule demanding tasks for early morning.

4. Take action to protect your home and communityClose blinds and shutters during the day.
Use fans or create cross-ventilation in the evenings.
Check on neighbours, especially those living alone.
Advocate for cooling shelters, shaded workspaces, and water access points in your area.

5. Don't underestimate nighttime heat

When nighttime temperatures stay above 25C, the body can't recover from the day's stress. Poor sleep increases heart risk, reduces productivity, and worsens mental health.Use cool showers, damp sheets, or ice packs before bed.
Create a communal "cool room" with fans or AC if electricity is limited.
Let employers and schools know that heat affects performance and health - even when the sun goes down.

Portugese landowners face fines as wildfire inspections begin

Copyright Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

By Sertac Aktan with EBU
Published on 17/06/2025

Portuguese landowners have been asked to clear any undergrowth on their properties in order to reduce the risk of wildfires. Those who fail to do so now face fines of up to €5,000.

Portugal's police force, the National Republican Guard (GNR), began nationwide inspections on Monday after the deadline passed for mandatory land clearing intended to prevent wildfires.

Landowners had until Sunday to clear undergrowth near properties, a deadline that was previously extended due to rainy weather. On the ground, GNR officers explained the specific regulations to property owners.

An officer from the GNR's Environmental Protection Unit in Coruche, Felizardo, pointed out an infraction: "In this case, the grass is a bit taller than the prescribed limits, and therefore, fuel management should have been carried out within 50 metres around your building to comply with the established regulations."For some landowners, the wet weather that led to the extension created its own problems. A landowner was asked if she knew she had to clear the land.

"Yes, we do know, but sometimes things don't happen the way we want. It rained a lot. My son was supposed to plough the land before going to the fields, but the soil couldn't support the tractor's weight, and it got stuck, so he had to leave it like that."

Those who have failed to comply now face significant fines, which can reach up to €5,000 for individuals and €60,000 for companies. By the end of April, authorities had already identified over 10,000 potentially non-compliant properties.

Education is the focus, not punishment

Despite the threat of penalties, the GNR's commander in Coruche, Mateus, expressed that the immediate focus is on education rather than punishment.

"At this time, and despite being authorised by law to carry out inspections and issue fines, our approach is always focused on prevention," he said, adding that the ultimate objective is clear: "What we want is for the land to be cleared and for there to be fewer forest fires in 2025."

The urgency of the campaign has increased in significance due to an impending heatwave. All of the Portuguese mainland's districts are already under a yellow weather warning, with maximum temperatures forecast to fluctuate between 33 and 40 degrees Celsius over the next few days.

Coal-hooked Poland constructs first ever offshore wind farm

Copyright Baltic Power

By Méabh Mc Mahon
Published on 17/06/2025 

Poland, long known as one of Europe’s most coal-dependent countries, is embarking on a new journey towards clean energy. Euronews takes a boat trip through the Baltic Sea to visit the first ever offshore wind farm on Polish territory.

Once reliant on coal for the majority of its electricity, the country of 36 million that currently holds the EU rotating presidency is trying to reduce its dependence on the fossil fuel.

With many mines becoming unprofitable and old infrastructure in decline, the Polish government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk has planned a gradual closure of coal facilities in the south of the country. As the coal regions of the country come to terms with this shift, northern Poland adjacent to the Baltic Sea is booming.

Ignacy Niemczycki, the deputy minister in the Chancellery, briefed a handful of Brussels-based journalists on board the Jantar passenger ship, telling Euronews that the wind farm should have a lifecycle of up to 30 years and be a major part of the energy transition.

We don't have coal anymore and we don't want to be reliant on imports from third countries.

 Ignacy Niemczycki 

Deputy minister in the Chancellery of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk

“It’s in the interest of the Polish economy to invest in renewables, nuclear, and gas to stabilise the grid,” the minister told Euronews.

Baltic Power – a joint venture between ORLEN and Northland Power

Situated 23 kilometres off the northern coast near Choczewo and Łeba, the wind farm is among the most advanced renewable energy projects in the Polish Economic Zone. The final installed capacity of the project is expected to reach 1140 MW, enough to supply electricity to approximately 1.5 million Polish households.

Méabh Mc Mahon speaking to Baltic Powers' Anita Ceglińska from Baltic PowerBaltic Power

Poland also to invest in nuclear

Renewables will only be one part of the Polish energy mix. Plans for the first ever nuclear plant, which will also be located on Poland’s northern Baltic Sea coast, were put in place under the former Law and Justice (PiS) government and have been continued by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s current ruling coalition.

Niemczycki told Euronews that a second nuclear project is being considered and Poland is keeping a close eye on Canada as it experiments with the first ever mini nuclear plant, known as a Small Modular Reactor (SMR). SMRs could can potentially power up to 300 MW(e) per unit.

“We will see a major change in Poland’s energy mix over the next 15 years,” said Niemczycki. “Nuclear will become the new baseline, with renewables and gas providing flexibility and stability.”

 

BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Turkey’s regime keeps Sword of Trials hanging over heads of the opposition

Ozgur Ozel's mass rallies against the regime went nowhere. And gave many observers the idea that Turkey has a robust opposition. It's not so. / @eczozgurozel

By Akin Nazli in Belgrade June 11, 2025

An indictment on irregularities at the 38th general congress of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has been submitted to the High Criminal Court by the 28th Penal Court of First Instance in Ankara, government-run news service Anadolu Agency has reported.

Let’s get straight into a disclaimer before diving into the legal processes concerned: The indictments and court cases under discussion have nothing to do with the law. This commentary simply aims to discuss whether the court processes under way are signalling whether or not Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is set to seize the CHP.

On June 3, the 28th Penal Court accepted the indictment filed by the Ankara chief public prosecutor’s office. The High Criminal Court is to now decide whether suspects referred to in the indictment have committed bribery.

The indictment

Twelve people, including Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu (who served as the congress council chair), Izmir mayor Cemil Tugay, CHP Istanbul chair Ozgur Celik, Baki Aydoner, Erkan Aydin, Huseyin Yasar, Mehmet Kilincaslan, Metin Guzelkaya, Ozgen Nama, Ozgur Celik, Riza Akpolat and Serhat Can Es are accused of vote-rigging.

CHP chair Ozgur Ozel and eight more MPs are not included in the indictment since they have legal immunity. To allow trials of lawmakers, parliament must clear the way with a vote.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the ex-chair of the CHP who was succeeded by Ozel, and Lutfu Savas, ex-mayor of Hatay province, are complainants in the indictment.

Party to be seized?

The court process detailed above is not the only court move in relation to the congress.

The presented case hinges on a criminal suit targeting individuals accused of committing a crime. Separately, the 42nd Civil Court of First Instance has been conducting a trial for the annulment of the congress. This case is based on the statement filed by Savas and three other delegates.

On May 26, the 42nd Civil Court held the second hearing. The third hearing is scheduled for June 30.

It is thought that the court will not issue a final ruling on June 30 and a further hearing will be held after the summer break.

Thus, the court keeps open the possibility of a seizure of the CHP that could be executed in the autumn (around November). A seizure would mean Kilicdaroglu being reinstated as the CHP chair.

Tensions in the CHP

Imamoglu’s media proxies have been pressing Kilicdaroglu to openly declare that he would not assume the post in the event of a court ruling providing him with the option. However, Kilicdaroglu is avoiding such an open declaration.

This stance is creating tensions within the CHP and creating tensions within the CHP is the main goal of the court processes in question.

Two years of limbo?

On June 3, Alican Uludag (@alicanuludag), an Ankara-based courthouse journalist who has been closely following the cases in question, wrote on X that the civil court is now supposed to wait for the ruling of the penal court.

Therefore the decision on the annulment of the congress will await the end of the trial at the criminal court. Uludag expects that the trial process at the criminal court (a local court ruling, appeals court ruling and final supreme court ruling) will last at least two years.

So, that would mean no seizure of the party in the next two years.

June 30 remains a critical juncture for the course of the civil court trial. At that hearing or prior to that hearing, the court will issue its ruling on whether or not to continue the trial or await the penal court outcome.

What is this all about?

At the CHP congress, held in November 2023, Ozgur Ozel won the leadership election, dislodging his rival Kilicdaroglu.

Following the congress, Kilicdaroglu circulated claims that Istanbul mayor Imamoglu bribed delegates to vote for Ozel.

In March this year, Savas filed the lawsuit for the annulment of the congress, making similar allegations. The two separate indictments are both based on Savas’ statement.

Who is Lutfu Savas?

In the 2009 local elections, Savas was the candidate of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Antakya, the main central district in Hatay province. He served as the AKP mayor of Antakya to 2014.

In 2014, he joined the CHP and served as mayor of Hatay Metropolitan Municipality to 2024.

In February 2023, catastrophic earthquakes destroyed Hatay. Savas, it turned out, provided the construction and building permits for most of the buildings that collapsed.

In the March 2024 local elections, Ozel nominated Savas as the CHP candidate for Hatay despite a fuss made by CHP voters. Savas lost the elections to the AKP candidate.

In October 2024, Savas accused the CHP management of partnering with the pro-Kurdish DEM Party.

In December 2024, the CHP annulled Savas’ party membership. Savas’ lawsuit came three months later.

There was comedy value created by the coalition announcing in February that the ruling Erdogan regime and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) were collaborating.

So, what now?

The congress cases are not the only court cases that are targeting the CHP. There are dozens of different court cases targeting CHP officials. They serve as swords of Damocles hanging over their heads.

At any time, Erdogan is able to seize the opposition party or dismiss or jail an official. Last month, Ozgur Ozel was also physically attacked. His predecessor Kilicdaroglu was also assaulted.

Everyone should know to stay smart with their footwork while playing in the field provided for the controlled opposition. They can any time share the destiny of Imamoglu and others thrown in jail.

In response to this reality, the CHP opts to act as if everything is normal. Turks lose their temper over the so-called main opposition’s insistence on this attitude.

Why does the CHP serve as the opponent’s chimpanzee in this circus?

The CHP, it should be realised, is a multi-billion dollar economy. In 2025, the CHP received Turkish lira (TRY) 1.4bn ($36mn) via its Treasury grant alone. It has many assets, such as valuable real estate.

Additionally, the CHP holds municipalities that have multi-billion dollar local government budgets, while CHP MPs, mayors, officials on the boards of public institutions and many others receive salaries from the state.

Rejecting the role of whipping boy in this theatre would mean rejecting billions of dollars. The CHP cadres would rebel and overthrow the party management if such a move was on the cards.

Providing apparent legitimacy

Every ruling regime desires an opposition party that it can keep in line, for to the unenlightened observer such an opposition provides the regime with the required legitimacy.

CHP approvals of election results are particularly critical to Turkey’s regime.

The CHP, indeed, has never been shy when it comes to legitimising the election results announced by Erdogan and his henchmen. However, Imamoglu spoiled the game in the 2019 local elections by twice defeating Erdogan’s candidate, rejecting attempts to snatch away his victories in the process. As we know, he eventually ended up in jail.

Final bet: no party seizure in the foreseeable future

This theatre remains on the stage. A seizure of the CHP or, in other words, the replacement of the current CHP management, is not something that can be envisaged for the near future.

There’s a good boy. Regime happy with Ozel

Following the detention of Imamoglu on March 19, the regime became afraid of the consequent street protests. Ozel solved the problem. He held huge rallies that, however, in the final analysis, can be seen as having been controlled. They did not cross the line. And, helpfully to the powers that be, they provided images for the international media that suggested that there is actually an opposition with some heft in Turkey.

After he was physically assaulted, Ozel said that he would respond to the intimidation by holding more big rallies. His statement could be taken to suggest that the regime attacked him because it was afraid of more such rallies and saw Ozel as rebelling against the regime. Or it could suggest something else—that Ozel knows the confines and limits of his playing field and promises to stay within them.

No spanner in Kurdish policy

The assault against Ozel was executed at the funeral of a DEM Party official. Since then, Ozel has not pushed to stop Kurdish collaboration with the regime, evident since the PKK started working with the ruling coalition.

Curiously, the assault on Kilicdaroglu took place at an event related to the “Kurdish question”. It was the funeral of a Turkish official murdered by the PKK.

At that time, the regime was pointing to a claimed alliance between the CHP and the PKK (as mentioned above by Lutfu Savas).

Now, things are vice versa.

In both cases, the idea is that the Kurds and the “anti-Kurds” should not support the CHP. The regime occasionally acquires the support of one side, while keeping the other side away from the CHP.

Once more, the problem solver

When the CHP joined the consumer boycott of companies seen as Erdoganist, launched by protesters demanding the release of Imamoglu, the regime had a moment of panic. Ozel also solved this problem. The CHP only joined the boycott for a single day. The single day passed, and the boycott was left to fizzle out.

Erdogan was never abashed in voicing his happiness with Ozel’s predecessor Kilicdaroglu. And prior to the 38th CHP party congress, both Erdogan and junior ally in the ruling coalition Devlet Bahceli, head of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), openly said that they would prefer Kilicdaroglu, but if someone was to replace him, they would prefer that it be Ozel.

Bahceli calls Ozel “TipiTip”, a cartoon character developed for a chewing gum brand.

 

France closes Israeli weapons booths at Paris Air Show amid Iran strikes

Israeli defence firms have booths blocked by French organisers at Paris Air Show on June 16. / CC: Sabreen

Feedly

By bnm Gulf bureau June 16, 2025

French exhibition authorities have blocked access to Israeli defence industry displays at the Paris Air Show on June 16, prompting strong condemnation from Israeli officials as "outrageous" discrimination following its attacks on Iran and Gaza, LCI reported.

France, unlike the United States and the United Kingdom a day earlier on June 15 remained on the fence whether it would support Israel in its attacks on Iran, which began on June 13, which Israel said was a pre-emptive strike on nuclear research centres.

Black barriers were erected around five Israeli defence companies' stands at Le Bourget airfield following concerns the exhibits featured "offensive weapons" potentially used in Gaza operations, according to a French government source.

The affected companies are Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael Uvision, Elbit and Aeronautics, all manufacturers of drones, guided bombs and missiles which are believed to be currently used in both Gaza and Iran.

Speaking from Jerusalem Israel’s President Isaac Herzog described the French organisers decision as creating an "Israeli ghetto" and demanded immediate correction of the situation during an appearance on French television channel LCI.

"Israeli companies have signed contracts with the organisers," Herzog said, expressing shock at what he termed the "outrageous" decision.

The Israeli Defence Ministry accused France of hiding behind political considerations to exclude Israeli weapons that compete with French industries, particularly noting Israeli technologies' "impressive and precise performance in Iran."

An Israeli exhibitor wrote in yellow chalk on one barrier that the concealed defence systems "are protecting the state of Israel these days" whilst alleging French discrimination.

The controversy overshadowed the major aerospace industry gathering, which typically focuses on aircraft displays and major orders for manufacturers, including Airbus and Boeing.

Local lawmakers from Seine-Saint-Denis department boycotted French Prime Minister François Bayrou's opening visit in protest over Israeli participation.

"Never has the world been so disrupted and destabilised," Bayrou said during a roundtable event, urging nations to tackle challenges "together, not against each other."

Earlier, Gila Gamlil, Israeli cabinet member said "We firmly call on the United States to join the war against Iran" as the two countries continue to attack each others' infrastructure. .

 Drones take center stage as Europe races to catch up at Paris Air Show

Copyright Thibault Camus/Copyright 2025 The AP. All rights reserved.By  Sophia KhatsenkovPublished on 17/06/2025 

Europe is attempting to close the gap with the U.S. and adapt to a new era of high-intensity warfare.

At this year’s Paris Air Show, fighter jets are taking a backseat. Unmanned and autonomous technologies are driving the future of defence and dominating the conversation at Le Bourget airport in northern Paris.

With 2,400 exhibitors from 48 countries and 300,000 visitors expected, the world’s biggest aerospace event opened against an intense backdrop of global tensions.

As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth year and tensions are soaring between Israel and Iran, it has become urgent for Europe to modernise its defence capabilities.

On Monday, Italian giant Leonardo and Turkey’s Baykar Technologies announced a joint venture to co-develop a new generation of unmanned systems, with the first drones expected to be delivered in 2026.

“When it comes to unmanned systems, Europe is quite behind,” said Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani.

“First of all, I think the target is to fill the gap… We need to develop different platforms with different payloads... and offer them to different countries. That will already be a very important target in the short to mid-term," explained Cingolani to a group of reporters.

Cingolani stressed that Europe will soon need not just drones, but also land and sea-based systems. “The Ukrainian war has completely changed the landscape,” he said. “We know that we have to be ready.”

For defence consultant Xavier Tytelman, the turning point for this edition of the fair is the industrialisation of high-intensity warfare.

"In the past, we said 'We are going to make drones'. Now, we are actually offering drones with well-defined prices, which shows a very strong trend of military industrialisation," he told Euronews.

Europe’s previous lag on large drone platforms may no longer matter. Smaller, more agile systems that are cheaper to produce and easier to deploy are now proving decisive on the battlefield.

Beyond strategy and scale, sovereignty has become a defining theme aduringt this year’s edition.

The push to develop “ITAR-free” (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) equipment -free from U.S. export restrictions - is visible across the exhibition area.

“There’s one fundamental element here, and that’s the return of sovereignty. You see it everywhere with many booths labelled ‘ITAR Free.’ That means there are no American components, so the U.S. can’t prevent them from using their own equipment, like they did in Ukraine, where we supplied missiles that couldn’t be used because they contained U.S. parts," explained Tytelman.

"Now, all around us, Europeans are organising themselves to be more sovereign, independent, to work together, to complement each other’s technological capabilities, and to achieve 100% European industrialisation. That’s another major deep, structural trend.”

DOING PUTINS BIDDING

US resists EU and UK push to cut Russian oil price cap at G7 summit

The US is resisting pressure from the EU to cut the sanctions oil price cap on Russia to $45. / bne IntelliNews

By bne IntelliNews June 16, 2025

The US is resisting calls from European governments to reduce the G7 price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, frustrating efforts by the EU and UK to increase financial pressure on Moscow as leaders meet for a G7 in Canada.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the oil sanctions have largely become a spent cannon, as they have failed to cut into Russian revenues after customers in Asia ignored the sanctions and Europe itself was still forced to import large amounts of Russian LNG.

In parallel, the European Commission said it will also not limit the EU's reliance on Russian nuclear fuel alongside its proposals to ban Russian gas, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said on June 16. The Commission is due to propose legal measures this week to end the EU's Russian gas imports by the end of 2027 – a goal the EU executive announced last month.

According to officials familiar with the G7 talks, the EU and UK are still exploring the possibility of unilaterally lowering the cap if Washington does not sign up to the new sanctions. Since US President Donald Trump took office at the start of this year, the US has imposed no new sanctions on Russia whatsoever.

The new lower oil price cap proposal is aimed at curbing Russia’s oil revenues after oil prices fell to the previous cap of $60 a barrel recently. However, in the last few days oil prices have been pushed up again to around $72 following the Israel attack on Iran on June 13.

Participants at the G7 summit in June will consider cap options ranging from a $30 to $50 ceiling, according to Alexander Khara, an expert at the Center for Defence Strategies. “We expect more pressure on Russia. Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga spoke about $30 per barrel as a new price ceiling (today it is $60). I do not know whether the G7 will agree to this, but it is interesting that among the invitees is also the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. He is the person who can easily increase oil production and thus, even without agreements on a significant price reduction, lower it,” Khara told Bloomberg.

While analysts view a halving of the price ceiling as unlikely, even a moderate reduction would strain Russian finances. European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas stated the EU might lower the ceiling independently of the US.

The European Commission’s latest sanctions package proposes reducing the seaborne crude price cap to $45 per barrel. It also includes measures targeting the Nord Stream pipelines, Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers and dozens of financial institutions.

“We are ramping up pressure on Russia because strength is the only language that Russia will understand,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels a week earlier. “Oil prices have gone down (...) so we need to adapt to the changed market conditions.”

EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan told Euractiv that the “starting point” for talks on a revised cap is to seek G7 agreement. “I think if we and the rest of the G7 were to back a lower price and the Americans were not, it's still something to be envisaged,” he said. “But I think our preferred outcome is always that we move forward with the G7 as a united bloc.”

People familiar with internal discussions told Bloomberg the final decision on the cap lies with Trump, though Washington has shown no signs of altering its position since the G7 finance ministers’ meeting earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the European Commission’s eighteenth sanctions package targets nine individuals and 33 legal entities, including the Russian Direct Investment Fund and firms supporting Russia’s military-industrial complex. It also proposes sanctions on 77 additional tankers and aims to expand financial restrictions to cover 22 more banks in Russia and third countries. A ban on imports of refined petroleum products from Russian raw materials and export restrictions on goods worth over €2.5bn ($2.68bn) annually are also included.

Sanctions are starting to cut into Russian oil company profits even if they are not badly hurting the Kremlin’s revenues. And the recent falls have more to do with lower prices than the sanctions themselves say analysts.

RosStat data show that net profits of oil and gas firms dropped by nearly 50% in the first quarter of 2025 to RUB789.5bn ($8.81bn), down from RUB1.45tn ($16.18bn) a year earlier. Refinery profitability declined by 95.7% to RUB4.5bn ($50mn). Weekly oil export revenues have reached a 2.5-year low of $1.2bn.

 

Hungarian government takes anti-Ukraine fearmongering to new heights

Viktor Orban released an AI-generated video on Facebook. / bne IntelliNews

By bne IntelliNews June 16, 2025

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban released an AI-generated video on his social media depicting bombed-out buildings, bloody battlefield scenes and rows of coffins, suggesting that Hungary could be drawn into the conflict in Ukraine.

The video promotes the Voks2025, a non-binding referendum on Ukraine's EU accession. So far, more than 2mn have responded in mail or online, but these data can hardly be verified.

Orban casts the vote as a nationalist defence against a "pro-Ukrainian" opposition, linking opposition figures to Brussels and portraying EU policy working in tandem with Kyiv as undermining Hungary's sovereignty.

The caption under the new AI video reads: "We don't want our children coming home in coffins. Vote no". The post includes no disclaimer indicating that the footage is computer-generated.

Viktor Orban has intensified his campaign against Ukraine's EU accession, warning that Brussels' pro-Kyiv stance threatens Hungary's economic stability and energy security. In a series of high-profile interventions ahead of next year's election, the veteran leader has portrayed EU enlargement as a zero-sum game that would divert funding from existing members and saddle Hungary with an additional HUF800bn (€2bn) annual burden.

Ukraine's EU access could double electricity prices and more than triple household gas bills, framing this scenario as a direct cost of living crisis, according to Orban.

Since the referendum's announcement, state media and government officials have also repeatedly equated EU enlargement with security risks, portraying Ukraine as a "Trojan horse" that could draw Hungary into military conflict.

In recent posts, the Hungarian premier escalated his rhetoric, saying that Hungarian soldiers could be drawn into the conflict and Budapest does not want to see their dead bodies returning in coffins.

Tensions between Budapest and Kyiv have spilled into diplomacy after Ukraine uncovered a Hungarian spy network in the western part of the country in early May. The episode led to the suspension of bilateral talks on minority rights in Transcarpathia, underscoring the wider political stakes at play.

This weekend marked a new nadir for the Hungarian government's anti-Ukrainian rhetoric when Alexandra Szentkiralyi, head of Fidesz's Budapest wing, posted a Facebook video showing a tied-up man in a car boot. Szentkiralyi used the footage to warn of increased human trafficking, drug smuggling and organ trading should Ukraine be granted EU membership.

With just five days left until the Voks2025 vote, and almost ten months until the next general election, the government's anti-Ukraine campaign shows no signs of abating, writes independent 444.hu, which warns of the uncertain consequences ahead.

While Orban was doubling down on his hate campaign, he also took time to polish his image as the leader of transition, releasing a long post on social media in honour of the 36th anniversary of the reburial of Imre Nagy, the prime minister who was executed after the Soviets crushed the 1956 revolution. June 16 also marks the 34th anniversary of the withdrawal of the last Soviet troops from the country.

As the young leader of the newly established, liberal and anti-Communist Fidesz party, Viktor Orban delivered a fiery and defiant speech at the ceremony on June 16, 1989.

In front of a massive crowd, he boldly demanded the immediate withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary, a statement that no other speaker at the ceremony dared to make directly. The moment became a turning point in Orban's political career, catapulting him into the national spotlight and cementing his image as a fearless, outspoken rebel figure willing to challenge the Soviet empire.

In his Facebook posts, Hungary's veteran leader recalls that in "1989 the Russians had to be sent home so we could be free. It took great courage back then, and it takes courage today, too, to remain free. Empires come and go; we will not run away", he said while equating the former USSR to the EU.

Political analysts point out that Orban wants to take credit for "ousting Russian troops," from Hungary; however, nothing could be further from reality.

Formal negotiations on the departure of Soviet forces had already begun in the spring of 1989 under Hungary's reform communists, led by Prime Minister Miklos Nemeth. The talks culminated in the agreement signed in Moscow by Foreign Minister Gyula Horn and his Soviet counterpart Eduard Shevardnadze in March 1990. Horn is widely regarded as playing an instrumental role in the fall of the German Democratic Republic (GDR), after opening Hungary's border with Austria to tens of thousands of East Germans fleeing the country in September 1989.

Before the reburial, Miklos Nemeth explicitly asked the organisers not to bring up the issue of Soviet troops stationed in Hungary, but Viktor Orban defied the request, seizing the moment to publicly demand their withdrawal.

Critics in the comments on his Facebook post have confronted Orban with his hypocrisy, accusing him of repudiating his former self and turning against everything he once stood for: systematically dismantling democratic institutions, rejecting Western liberal values and becoming a servant of Russian interests.

Latin America splits over Iran-Israel conflict

Left-leaning governments in Brazil, Venezuela, and several Central American nations have aligned with Iran, whilst Argentina under Milei has strengthened ties with Israel. / bne IntelliNews

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By bnl editorial staff June 16, 2025

The escalating Iran-Israel conflict has exposed deep fractures across Latin America, with governments from Buenos Aires to Caracas staking out opposing rhetorical positions but remaining largely powerless to influence the crisis unfolding on the other side of the globe.

The split, already shaped by the conflict in Gaza, became starkly apparent following Israel's strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that began on June 13, part of an ongoing conflict in which Tehran claims 224 people have been killed including civilians, senior military commanders and nuclear scientists. Despite the gravity of the situation, Latin American responses have been limited to diplomatic statements.

Brazil's foreign ministry expressed "firm condemnation" of what it called Israel's "clear violation" of Iranian sovereignty and international law. The ministry warned that the attacks threaten to "plunge the entire region into a large-scale conflict, with a high risk for peace, security, and the world economy".

Venezuela went further, with President Nicolás Maduro, a long-time ally of the Iranian Islamic republic, comparing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "the Hitler of the present time". At an emergency session of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna on June 16, Venezuelan Ambassador Claudia Salerno accused Israel of "genocidal" disregard for international law.

Peru struck a more mediating tone, with its foreign ministry calling for an immediate ceasefire and warning of "incalculable and disastrous consequences" if the conflict escalates. The Peruvian government urged both parties to pursue negotiations "using the means and mechanisms existing in international law".

However, Argentina and Paraguay took notably different stances, with both governments focusing criticism on Iran rather than Israel. Paraguay expressed "firm support for Israel and its right to defend its existence", with Foreign Minister Rubén Ramírez receiving a briefing call from his Israeli counterpart about what Israel described as a "preemptive" operation against "Iranian tactical infrastructure".

Argentina has similarly aligned with Israel, with President Javier Milei's administration vocally lashing out at Iran. Buenos Aires condemned Tehran's retaliatory strikes and denounced the appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, noting he faces an international arrest warrant over the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people.

The divergent positions lay bare deeper regional rifts. Left-leaning governments in Brazil, Venezuela, and several Central American nations have aligned with Iran, whilst Argentina under Milei has strengthened ties with Israel. During a recent visit to Israel, the libertarian president reaffirmed his controversial pledge to move Argentina's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2026.

Cuba, Mexico, Chile, and Nicaragua have also condemned Israeli actions, with Nicaragua's government calling the strikes "reckless aggression" that violates "all laws and norms of coexistence". The Alba Union, a Bolivarian alliance of leftist Latin American nations, issued a joint statement condemning what it termed Israel's "military aggression".

Iranian diplomatic offensive

Tensions between Israel and Iran have ramped up following a recent Latin American tour by Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who visited Venezuela, Brazil, and Cuba in what observers describe as a charm offensive to build support for Tehran's position.

During his visit to Caracas, Ghalibaf met with Maduro and delivered 2.3mn vaccines as part of bilateral cooperation. In Brazil, he participated in a BRICS parliamentary forum where Iran pushed for strengthening alternative payment mechanisms to circumvent Western sanctions. Brazil holds the BRICS rotating presidency in 2025 and is gearing up to host the bloc’s summit in Rio de Janeiro on July 6-7.

“We hope and expect that just like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS will also adopt a position [against the Israeli aggression], recognising the reality in our region, where a criminal regime has illegally launched an armed attack on another country," said Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, at a weekly briefing.

The Iranian delegation's activities have raised concerns among regional security analysts, particularly regarding potential cooperation on military technology and nuclear energy programmes. Venezuela and Iran have previously collaborated on drone manufacturing, whilst both Cuba and Venezuela have been accused of providing assistance to Iran-linked militant groups.

Nuclear concerns

The nuclear dimension of the conflict has particular resonance in Latin America, where several nations have their own nuclear programmes. Brazil's statement specifically condemned attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, noting that Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Israel is not.

Venezuela's representative to the IAEA criticised what she called "double standards" in nuclear oversight, questioning why some countries are required to cooperate in defending nuclear peace, while allowing others to act outside the law.

The regional divide reflects broader global tensions, with Latin American leftist governments increasingly aligning with Iran, Russia, and China in opposition to what they perceive as Western hegemony. Conservative governments, by contrast, have maintained closer ties with Israel and the United States.

As the conflict risks spiralling out of control, Latin America finds itself increasingly sidelined as a mere spectator to a confrontation shaped by global superpowers. The United States remains Israel's principal ally, providing military aid and diplomatic cover. In contrast, China, which has become Latin America's leading trading partner, has deepened economic ties with Iran despite officially calling for restraint.

The BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil as a founding member, has emerged as a key forum for Iran to circumvent Western sanctions and build alternative financial mechanisms. Tehran's recent inclusion in BRICS is consistent with its strategy of leveraging emerging economies to challenge Western-dominated institutions.

But this multilateral posturing masks a harder reality: Latin American nations lack the economic clout or strategic importance to meaningfully influence the conflict's trajectory. Their diplomatic positions, whilst reflecting domestic political calculations, ideological alignments and historical grievances, carry little weight in Washington, Beijing, or Moscow's strategic calculations.

The region's fragmentation over the crisis is yet another demonstration of its diminished role in global affairs, with even major economies like Brazil, which already failed to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, unable to broker dialogue between the warring parties. As great power competition intensifies for control over what was once known as America's backyard, Latin America appears destined to remain on the periphery of conflicts that nonetheless threaten to reshape the international order in which it must operate.

 

China’s delicate dance in the Iran-Israel war

China’s delicate dance in the Iran-Israel war. / bno IntelliNews

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By bno - Taipei Office June 17, 2025

As tensions between Iran and Israel threaten to escalate into a broader regional conflict, the global power with the most at stake, China, occupies a uniquely complex position – one that straddles historical loyalties, economic necessity and strategic calculation.

Beijing has long pursued a foreign policy of non-intervention in the domestic affairs of others, and multipolar diplomacy, particularly in the Middle East. But the deepening crisis between Iran and Israel has tested these principles. With major energy and infrastructure ties to Tehran, and simultaneously a growing technology and investment relationship with Israel, China finds itself in a precarious diplomatic position.

Beijing is quite literally caught between two partners now locked in open hostility.

However, recent developments suggest that Beijing may be manoeuvring quietly behind the scenes. In particular, the appearance of two flights reportedly operating between China and the eastern end of the Middle East in recent days – flagged by military tracking accounts online – has raised fresh questions about whether China is simply observing events or playing a more active role in shaping them. 

China’s ties to Iran

China and Iran have steadily expanded economic cooperation over the past two decades, with energy at the heart of the relationship. Beijing is the largest and only significant buyer of Iranian oil, often circumventing international sanctions by conducting transactions through intermediaries or ship-to-ship transfers on the open seas. Since the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, and Washington’s imposition of maximum pressure sanctions, Chinese imports of Iranian crude have remained a lifeline for Tehran’s economy. In turn this has reinforced Iran’s role as a Chinese proxy of sorts in the region.

In 2021, China and Iran signed a sweeping 25-year cooperation agreement, pledging $400bn in investment across oil, gas, infrastructure and even the banking sectors. At the time this was hailed by Iranian leaders as evidence of the Islamic Republic’s ability to withstand Western isolation. Beijing painted it differently – as part of its wider Belt and Road ambitions.

As such, the current war between Israel and Iran threatens to disrupt these arrangements. Should the conflict damage Iran’s export capabilities either through sanctions, cyberattacks or physical strikes on its energy infrastructure, as is appearing more and more likely, China’s access to cheap oil may be jeopardised. Moreover, if Iran is pushed further into international isolation, China may find its long-term projects in the country, including railway and port developments, put at risk.

The possibility too of regime change would cause some consternation in Beijing. In dealing with a government willing to ignore Chinese aggression against its own Muslim minority in East Turkestan / Xinjiang, Beijing knows that Tehran has long-since accepted its role as subservient to China as both a financial and influential lifeline to the non-sanctioned world. Nonetheless, Beijing has so far avoided taking sides in the war.

Official statements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry have called for “calm and restraint” on all sides, and for respect for international law. At the same time, China has expressed strong support for the Palestinian cause; an irony not lost on the Uyghurs, Tibetans and other minorities routinely prevented from their own claims to a historical homeland.

China and Israel: a quiet but crucial partnership

Less visible, but no less significant, is the relationship between China and Israel. Over the past decade, the two countries have deepened cooperation in high-tech sectors, including artificial intelligence, water technology and agriculture. Chinese firms have invested in a number of Israeli start-ups and infrastructure projects, including the management of Haifa Port, an important shipping hub.

This burgeoning economic partnership has not gone unnoticed in Washington, where US officials have raised concerns about technology transfers to China and national security. In response to American pressure, Israel has recently become more cautious about Chinese investment in sensitive industries, but the two countries remain commercially entwined.

China’s balancing act is itself made more difficult by Israel’s historically close alignment to the US, Beijing’s primary geopolitical rival at a time tariffs remain a thorny issue and the question of Chinese claims over Taiwan in the Western Pacific remain unresolved.

At a time when Washington is reinforcing its own support for Israel, China’s refusal to criticise Tehran more harshly could be perceived as tacit endorsement of Iran’s position by a White House keen to play up any supposed faux-pas on the part of its economic and geopolitical rivals. This, in turn, risks fraying ties with Tel Aviv with Israel now walking a tightrope of sorts between Washington and Beijing.

Unusual flight patterns

Added to this, in recent days, online aircraft tracking communities have identified two unusual flights reportedly linking China and Iran – or at least Turkmenistan – with speculation swirling about their nature and purpose. While there has been no official confirmation of their contents or authorisation, some analysts have suggested they could be military-related, or involve technology transfers relevant to the conflict. Other sources have claimed the flights in question landed short of the Iranian border in Ashgabat – Turkmenistan.

The flights are particularly intriguing given the triangulated alliance that appears to be developing between Russia, Iran and China. All three share adversarial relations with the West, and each has a vested interest in undermining US influence across various theatres – from Ukraine to the South China Sea.

While the flights do not in themselves prove Chinese involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, they may indicate logistical support or intelligence-sharing taking place between Beijing and Moscow, with potential ramifications for Tehran. That at least one of the flights supposedly involved a Luxembourg registered cargo aircraft and not a Chinese plane adds to the mystery.

It is worth noting too that during the recent Syrian civil war, similar unmarked flights often preceded shifts in battlefield dynamics or weapons transfers.

To this end, should it subsequently emerge that China is indeed providing indirect support to Iran via Russia’s ally Turkmenistan or Russia itself – or in some way facilitating Iranian logistics – it would mark a significant shift from Beijing’s traditionally cautious approach to Middle East conflicts. Any future claims by Beijing that it prefers to stay out of the domestic affairs of others would also be left in tatters.

More importantly, such a move would also risk drawing China into a wider geopolitical confrontation with the United States and its allies.

Implications for China

As we stand, less than a week after the first attack was launched, the Iran-Israel war presents China with both a challenge and an opportunity. On one hand, it risks undermining China’s relationships with both sides of the conflict. On the other, it allows Beijing to continue presenting itself as a stable, non-interventionist power in contrast to the perceived heavy-handedness of the West – but only if it remains at a distance. A start would be clarifying the real purpose and intent behind the recent mystery flights towards Turkmenistan and possibly on into Iran.

If the war intensifies, however, China may find its strategy of quiet engagement and economic statecraft increasingly difficult to maintain. A drawn-out conflict could force Beijing to clarify its position one way or the other, especially if oil supplies are threatened or if US allies in the Indo-Pacific begin pressing for a coordinated diplomatic response.

Ultimately, however, while Beijing may not be fuelling the conflict directly, it is certainly shaping the geopolitical context in which it unfolds. Whether through trade, energy, or deliberate but subtle strategic alignments, China remains a quiet but critical actor in a war whose consequences extend far beyond the borders of the Middle East.