Midwestern butterfly count: Big data yields bad news and clues

Michigan State University

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Volunteers search for butterflies at the Kalamazoo Nature Center in Michigan.

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Credit: Karen Douglas, Kalamazoo Nature Center

While analyzing the mountains of data harvested from three decades of butterfly counting in the Midwest, a Michigan State University PhD candidate had seen enough studies to be braced for bad news.

But, as reported in this week’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, finding that none of the 136 species of butterflies’ populations increased over that time took Wendy Leuenberger aback.

“We expected to find that at least some species had done well over the past 32 years,” she said.

Leuenberger and colleagues report the results after they combined more than 4.3 million observations in the U.S. Midwest from 1992-2023 to characterize changes in butterfly biodiversity. The results: Fifty-nine of the 136 species declined in abundance over the study. That means for every 10 species and 100 individuals present at a county at the beginning of the study period, there are now only nine species and 60 individuals.

Both common and rare butterflies are waning. 

“You would have such a different experience taking a walk to look at butterflies in 1992 as compared to 2023,” said Leuenberger, who is in the MSU Zipkin Quantitative Ecology Lab in the department of integrative biology. “While most of the common species like monarchs and cabbage whites are still present, you wouldn’t see nearly as many of them as in 1992. You’re less likely to spot rare species as well. These are all changes that have occurred during my lifetime, which is humbling.”

The publication comes on the heels of another big data analysis published in March in Science, which documented a national butterfly decline across the United States from 2000 to 2020. This latest study includes more butterfly surveys by going back a decade further, most collected by volunteers working more than 90,000 hours. Although the team did not evaluate the drivers of decline, the time frame is parallel to the widespread use of the insecticide class of neonicotinoids, which were introduced in 1994 and rapidly increased in use after 2003. The last several decades have also seen changes in key weather variables because of global climate change.

The level of detail in the analysis will be crucial to understanding the best ways to conserve butterflies, which fall into different trait groups – including monarchs, swallowtails and skippers. Some migrate vast distances while others stay put. Some are abundant and found in a variety of habitats, while others can only live in a few specific places or in small numbers. They have different strategies to overwinter – as eggs, caterpillars or adults.

“Traits affect how resilient butterflies are to change,” Leuenberger said. “For instance, ones that only have a single generation a year don’t do as well as multi-generational butterflies.”

This diversity is why it’s important to have a detailed understanding about how each type of butterfly is faring. Knowing specifically how a species is changing – or not – is the first step in creating effective conservation plans.

“We are lucky to be working in the midwestern U.S., an area with the highest density of butterfly surveys of anywhere in North America,” said the study’s senior author Elise Zipkin, Red Cedar Distinguished Professor and director of MSU’s Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program. “Volunteer scientists use the same protocols week after week and year after year. Without their invaluable efforts, we would not know how butterflies are faring and what we can do to reverse declines.”

Butterflies are the most commonly counted insects and the butterfly is a likely poster species for how other insects and animals crucial to ecosystems are faring. As caterpillars, butterflies are the primary food for many fledgling birds. Butterflies and other insects are also important pollinators for plants and crops.

“Humans rely on insects more than we realize,” says Leuenberger. “We need to figure out how we can protect them before it’s too late.”

Besides Leuenberger and Zipkin, “Three decades of declines restructure butterfly communities in the Midwestern United States” was written by Jeffrey Doser, Michael Belitz, Leslie Ries, Nick Haddad, and Wayne Thogmartin. The work was supported by the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center and MSU.

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2501340122 

Method of Research

Meta-analysis

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Three decades of declines restructure butterfly communities in the Midwestern United States

Article Publication Date

1-Aug-2025

New mega RNA virus may hold the key to mass oyster die-offs

University of British Columbia

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Scientists have discovered a previously unknown virus in farmed Pacific oysters during a mass die-off in B.C., Canada.

The discovery serves as a reminder that growers should exercise caution when moving young oysters internationally and domestically, to prevent potential spread of pathogens, according to a paper published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“We’ve recently seen annual mass die-offs in B.C. and elsewhere of Pacific oysters, the most widely farmed shellfish worldwide,” said first author Dr. Kevin Zhong, research associate in the UBC department of earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences (EOAS). “Often, we don’t know the cause.”

Pacific oysters are the primary shellfish species grown in B.C. with an estimated value of  $16 million in 2023. While mass die-offs have been attributed to various factors including viruses, bacteria, and warming water temperatures, in many cases, there’s no definitive cause.

The researchers collected 33 oysters from two farms in B.C. during a mass die-off in 2020, as well as 26 wild oysters from 10 nearby sites. RNA analysis revealed the presence of a previously unknown virus, Pacific Oyster Nidovirus 1 (PONV1), in 20 of the dead and dying farmed oysters – but not in healthy wild oysters, suggesting a link between the virus and mortality.

“This discovery highlights how little we know about viruses infecting invertebrates in general and oysters in particular,” said senior author Dr. Curtis Suttle, EOAS professor. “It’s important to investigate mass die-offs in oysters to determine what causes disease. Similar to humans, disease and death is not caused by a single factor, but prevention is not possible until the causes are known.”

Clues from genomes

The virus has one of the largest RNA genomes on record and is only the second nidovirus found in bivalves. Nidoviruses are found in a wide range of animals, including humans; for example, SARS-CoV-2, a nidovirus, causes COVID-19.

“The extraordinarily large genome of this virus makes it particularly fascinating as it pushes the known boundaries of how big RNA virus genomes can get,” said Dr. Zhong. “A larger genome may allow the virus to encode more genes or protein domains, potentially expanding or enhancing its ability to interact with hosts. This discovery offers a rare window into the possible evolutionary mechanisms that enable genome expansion in RNA viruses.”

Global genetic databases revealed 15 closely related viruses in Pacific oysters in Europe and Asia, suggesting they are globally widespread. However, these cases showed no associated mortality.

The viruses are so different genetically from other nidoviruses that the research team has proposed a new family: Megarnaviridae, or ‘large RNA viruses’. PONV1, which the team is proposing to name Megarnavirus gigas, or ‘large RNA virus giant’, and its relatives appear to be specific to oysters, so humans are not at risk from contracting the virus, said Dr. Suttle.

Care when shipping spat

B.C. oyster farmers, like growers elsewhere, often import oyster seed and juvenile oysters, or spat, from domestic and international hatcheries. “The discovery of the virus is a reminder that growers should use an abundance of caution when moving oyster spat internationally and nationally, as we still know very little about what causes disease in oysters,” said Dr. Suttle. “New pathogens may be introduced when spat are imported. Ultimately, developing rapid tests for detecting potential pathogens is essential for safely importing oyster seed, and identifying the causes of disease and mortality.”

The scientists emphasize the need for further research to understand the link between the virus and mortality in Pacific oysters and stress the need for ongoing monitoring of oyster populations. “This research is not a cause for alarm,” said Dr. Suttle. “Rather,  this is a meaningful step forward in advancing our understanding of oyster health and supporting the long-term sustainability of shellfish aquaculture.”

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2426923122 

 

Organized scientific fraud is growing at an alarming rate

New study uncovers coordinated efforts of paper mills, brokers and infiltrated journals

Northwestern University

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From fabricated research to paid authorships and citations, organized scientific fraud is on the rise, according to a new Northwestern University study.

By combining large-scale data analysis of scientific literature with case studies, the researchers led a deep investigation into scientific fraud. Although concerns around scientific misconduct typically focus on lone individuals, the Northwestern study instead uncovered sophisticated global networks of individuals and entities, which systematically work together to undermine the integrity of academic publishing.

The problem is so widespread that the publication of fraudulent science is outpacing the growth rate of legitimate scientific publications. The authors argue these findings should serve as a wake-up call to the scientific community, which needs to act before the public loses confidence in the scientific process.

The study will be published during the week of August 4 the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“Science must police itself better in order to preserve its integrity,” said Northwestern’s Luís A. N. Amaral, the study’s senior author. “If we do not create awareness around this problem, worse and worse behavior will become normalized. At some point, it will be too late, and scientific literature will become completely poisoned. Some people worry that talking about this issue is attacking science. But I strongly believe we are defending science from bad actors. We need to be aware of the seriousness of this problem and take measures to address it.”

An expert in complex social systems, Amaral is the Erastus Otis Haven Professor and professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering. Reese Richardson, a postdoctoral fellow in Amaral’s laboratory, is the paper’s first author.

Extensive analysis

When people think about scientific fraud, they might remember news reports of retracted papers, falsified data or plagiarism. These reports typically center around the isolated actions of one individual, who takes shortcuts to get ahead in an increasingly competitive industry. But Amaral and his team uncovered a widespread underground network operating within the shadows and outside of the public’s awareness.

“These networks are essentially criminal organizations, acting together to fake the process of science,” Amaral said. “Millions of dollars are involved in these processes.”

To conduct the study, the researchers analyzed extensive datasets of retracted publications, editorial records and instances of image duplication. Most of the data came from major aggregators of scientific literature, including Web of Science (WoS), Elsevier’s Scopus, National Library of Medicine’s PubMed/MEDLINE and OpenAlex, which includes data from Microsoft Academic Graph, Crossref, ORCID, Unpaywall and other institutional repositories.

Richardson and his colleagues also collected lists of de-indexed journals, which are scholarly journals that have been removed from databases for failing to meet certain quality or ethical standards. The researchers also included data on retracted articles from Retraction Watch, article comments from PubPeer and metadata — such as editor names, submission dates and acceptance dates — from articles published in specific journals.

Buying a reputation

After analyzing the data, the team uncovered coordinated efforts involving “paper mills,” brokers and infiltrated journals. Functioning much like factories, paper mills churn out large numbers of manuscripts, which they then sell to academics who want to quickly publish new work. These manuscripts are mostly low quality — featuring fabricated data, manipulated or even stolen images, plagiarized content and sometimes nonsensical or physically impossible claims.

“More and more scientists are being caught up in paper mills,” Amaral said. “Not only can they buy papers, but they can buy citations. Then, they can appear like well-reputed scientists when they have barely conducted their own research at all.”

“Paper mills operate by a variety of different models,” Richardson added. “So, we have only just been able to scratch the surface of how they operate. But they sell basically anything that can be used to launder a reputation. They often sell authorship slots for hundreds or even thousands of dollars. A person might pay more money for the first author position or less money for a fourth author position. People also can pay to get papers they have written automatically accepted in a journal through a sham peer-review process.”

To identify more articles originating from paper mills, the Amaral group launched a parallel project that automatically scans published materials science and engineering papers. The team specifically looked for authors who misidentified instruments they used in their research. A paper with those results was accepted by the journal PLOS ONE.

Brokers, hijacking and collusion

Amaral, Richardson and their collaborators found fraudulent networks use several key strategies: (1) Groups of researchers collude to publish papers across multiple journals. When their activities are discovered, the papers are subsequently retracted; (2) brokers serve as intermediaries to enable mass publication of fraudulent papers in compromised journals; (3) fraudulent activities are concentrated in specific, vulnerable subfields; and (4) organized entities evade quality-control measures, such as journal de-indexing.

“Brokers connect all the different people behind the scenes,” Amaral said. “You need to find someone to write the paper. You need to find people willing to pay to be the authors. You need to find a journal where you can get it all published. And you need editors in that journal who will accept that paper.”

Sometimes these organizations go around established journals altogether, searching instead for defunct journals to hijack. When a legitimate journal stops publishing, for example, bad actors can take over its name or website. These actors surreptitiously assume the journal’s identity, lending credibility to its fraudulent publications, despite the actual publication being defunct.

“This happened to the journal HIV Nursing,” Richardson said. “It was formerly the journal of a professional nursing organization in the U.K., then it stopped publishing, and its online domain lapsed. An organization bought the domain name and started publishing thousands of papers on subjects completely unrelated to nursing, all indexed in Scopus.”

Fighting for science

To combat this growing threat to legitimate scientific publishing, Amaral and Richardson emphasize the need for a multi-prong approach. This approach includes enhanced scrutiny of editorial processes, improved methods for detecting fabricated research, a greater understanding of the networks facilitating this misconduct and a radical restructuring of the system of incentives in science.

Amaral and Richardson also underscore the importance of addressing these issues before artificial intelligence (AI) infiltrates scientific literature more than it already has.

“If we’re not prepared to deal with the fraud that’s already occurring, then we’re certainly not prepared to deal with what generative AI can do to scientific literature,” Richardson said. “We have no clue what’s going to end up in the literature, what’s going to be regarded as scientific fact and what’s going to be used to train future AI models, which then will be used to write more papers.”

“This study is probably the most depressing project I’ve been involved with in my entire life,” Amaral said. “Since I was a kid, I was excited about science. It’s distressing to see others engage in fraud and in misleading others. But if you believe that science is useful and important for humanity, then you have to fight for it.”

The study, “The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient and growing rapidly,” was supported by the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2420092122 

Article Title

The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient and growing rapidly

Article Publication Date

4-Aug-2025

 

A new alternative to opioids

Discovery of a new analgesic promises pain relief with fewer downsides

Kyoto University

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Mechanism of pain relief by ADRIANA

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Credit: KyotoU / Hagiwara lab

Kyoto, Japan -- Opioids like morphine are widely used in medical practice due to their powerful pain-relieving effects. However, they carry the risk of serious adverse effects such as respiratory depression and drug dependence. For this reason, Japan has strict regulations in place to ensure that these medications are prescribed only by authorized physicians.

In the United States, however, the opioid OxyContin was once prescribed frequently triggering a surge in the misuse of synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. As a result, the number of deaths caused by opioid overdose surpassed 80,000 in 2023, escalating into a national public health crisis now referred to as the "opioid crisis".

Opioids may soon have a rival, however. A team of researchers at Kyoto University has recently discovered a novel analgesic, or pain reliever, which exerts its effect through an entirely different mechanism. Clinical development of their drug ADRIANA is currently underway as part of an international collaborative effort.

"If successfully commercialized, ADRIANA would offer a new pain management option that does not rely on opioids, contributing significantly to the reduction of opioid use in clinical settings," says corresponding author Masatoshi Hagiwara, a specially-appointed professor at Kyoto University.

The research team was first inspired by substances that mimic noradrenaline, which is released in life-threatening situations and activates α2A-adrenoceptors to suppress pain. However, these pose a high risk of cardiovascular instability. After observing noradrenaline levels and α2B-adrenoceptors, the team hypothesized that selectively blocking α2B-adrenoceptors could elevate noradrenaline levels, leading to activation of α2A-adrenoceptors and resulting in pain relief without causing cardiovascular instability.

To identify selective inhibitors of α2B-adrenoceptors and measure the activity of individual α2-adrenoceptor subtypes, the researchers employed a novel technology known as the TGFα shedding assay and conducted compound screening leading to their discovery of the world's first selective α2B-adrenoceptor antagonist.

After success in administering the compound to mice and conducting non-clinical studies to assess its safety, physician-led clinical trials were conducted at Kyoto University Hospital. Both the Phase I trial in healthy volunteers and the Phase II trial in patients with postoperative pain following lung cancer surgery yielded highly promising results.

Building on these outcomes, preparations are now underway for a large-scale Phase II clinical trial in the United States, in collaboration with BTB Therapeutics, Inc, a Kyoto University-originated venture company.

As Japan's first non-opioid analgesic, ADRIANA has the potential not only to relieve severe pain for patients worldwide but could also play a meaningful role in addressing the opioid crisis -- a pressing social issue in the United States -- and thus contribute to international public health efforts.

"We aim to evaluate the analgesic effects of ADRIANA across various types of pain and ultimately make this treatment accessible to a broader population of patients suffering from chronic pain," says Hagiwara.

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The paper "Discovery and development of an oral analgesic targeting the α2B adrenoceptor" appeared on 4 August 2025 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, with doi: 

About Kyoto University

Kyoto University is one of Japan and Asia's premier research institutions, founded in 1897 and responsible for producing numerous Nobel laureates and winners of other prestigious international prizes. A broad curriculum across the arts and sciences at undergraduate and graduate levels complements several research centers, facilities, and offices around Japan and the world. For more information, please see: http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/en

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Method of Research

Randomized controlled/clinical trial

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Discovery and development of an oral analgesic targeting the α2B adrenoceptor

Article Publication Date

4-Aug-2025

COI Statement

Hagiwara discloses that he owns stock in three partner firms: Kinopharma, HiLung, and BTB Therapeutics.

Job opportunities are more important to refugees from Ukraine than social benefits

New study shows: Ukrainian refugees prefer countries with better job opportunities to countries with higher social benefits.

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

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Ukrainian refugees prefer countries with better job opportunities to countries with higher social benefits. This is the finding of a recent study by the ifo Institute and LMU Munich, which surveyed over 3,300 Ukrainian refugees in Europe. “The prospect of a job that matches their qualifications and a higher wage level has a much stronger effect on refugees than social assistance or child benefits,” says Panu Poutvaara, Director of the ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics and professor at LMU’s Faculty of Economics. “We see that wage differences play an almost four times greater role in the choice of destination country of Ukrainian refugees than differences in social benefits.” 

In a hypothetical scenario, respondents were asked to choose between two countries with different characteristics. The decisive factor was whether the country promised better job opportunities or higher wages. In the first case, respondents were 15 percentage points more likely to choose the country with better job opportunities. In the second case, a country with an average wage that is 500 euros (570 USD) higher was 9 percentage points more likely to be chosen. Job opportunities and higher wages are decisive factors also to refugees who are currently unemployed. They apparently plan to enter the labor market in the future. In addition, friends or family in the destination country are 8.5 percentage points more important than immediate geographical proximity to Ukraine. Intentions to return also play a role. Refugees who plan to settle outside Ukraine in the long term prefer countries further away with economic advantages over countries where family and friends are located. 

“It is important to understand why refugees choose certain countries when it comes to planning appropriate policy measures at the national and international level,” says Yvonne Giesing, Deputy Director of the ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics. One example of this is the debate about cutting social benefits to make fleeing to certain countries less attractive. However, the study shows that higher wages and easier access to suitable jobs are a greater incentive for refugees than social benefits. Therefore, cuts in social benefits are likely to have little effect. “Cutting government aid could also have a negative impact on integration in the long term,” says Giesing.

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Method of Research

Survey

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Refugees from Ukraine value job opportunities over welfare

Article Publication Date

4-Aug-2025

 

Researchers debunk long-standing concern about flu treatment in children

Vanderbilt University Medical Center

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Principal investigator James Antoon, MD, PhD, MPH, assistant professor of Pediatrics in the Division of Pediatric Hospital Medicine at Monroe Carell.

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Credit: Vanderbilt University Medical Center

For decades, medical professionals debated whether a common antiviral medication used to treat flu in children caused neuropsychiatric events or if the infection itself was the culprit.

Now researchers at Monroe Carell Jr. Children’s Hospital at Vanderbilt have debunked a long-standing theory about oseltamivir, known as Tamiflu.

According to the study, published in JAMA Neurology, oseltamivir treatment during flu episodes was associated with a reduced risk of serious neuropsychiatric events, such as seizures, altered mental status and hallucination.

“Our findings demonstrated what many pediatricians have long suspected, that the flu, not the flu treatment, is associated with neuropsychiatric events,” said principal investigator James Antoon, MD, PhD, MPH, assistant professor of Pediatrics in the Division of Pediatric Hospital Medicine at Monroe Carell. “In fact, oseltamivir treatment seems to prevent neuropsychiatric events rather than cause them.”

Key points:

• Influenza itself was associated with an increase in neuropsychiatric events compared to children with no influenza, regardless of oseltamivir use.
• Among children with influenza, those treated with oseltamivir had about 50% reduction in neuropsychiatric events.
• Among children without influenza, those who were treated with oseltamivir prophylactically had the same rate of events as the baseline group with no influenza.

“Taken together, these three findings do not support the theory that oseltamivir increases the risk of neuropsychiatric events,” said Antoon. “It’s the influenza.”

The team reviewed the de-identified data from a cohort of children and adolescents ages 5-17 who were enrolled in Tennessee Medicaid between July 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020.

During the four-year period, 692,295 children, with a median age of 11 years, were included in the study cohort. During follow-up, study children experienced 1,230 serious neuropsychiatric events (898 neurologic and 332 psychiatric).

The clinical outcomes definition included both neurologic (seizures, encephalitis, altered mental status, ataxia/movement disorders, vision changes, dizziness, headache, sleeping disorders) and psychiatric (suicidal or self-harm behaviors, mood disorders, psychosis/hallucination) events.

“The 2024-2025 influenza season highlighted the severity of influenza-associated neurologic complications, with many centers reporting increased frequency and severity of neurologic events during the most recent season,” said Antoon. “It is important for patients and families to know the true risk-benefit profile of flu treatments, such as oseltamivir, that are recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics.”

“These flu treatments are safe and effective, especially when used early in the course of clinical disease,” added senior author Carlos Grijalva, MD, MPH, professor of Health Policy and Biomedical Informatics at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

Investigators hope the findings will provide reassurance to both caregivers and medical professionals about the safety of oseltamivir and its role in preventing flu-associated complications.

The study was funded by the National Institutes of Health (grants K23AI168496, K24AI148459 and P50HD106446).

Journal

JAMA Neurology

DOI

10.1001/jamaneurol.2025.1995 

Article Title

Influenza With and Without Oseltamivir Treatment and Neuropsychiatric Events Among Children and Adolescents

Article Publication Date

4-Aug-2025