After the storm: to rebuild or relocate?

Study reveals how residents and government officials in a flood-prone community feel about adapting to climate change -- and how political views may play a role

Society for Risk Analysis

Facebook

WeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

Focusing on the neighborhood of Ortley Beach, Right After Hurricane Sandy (2012), Aerial view post Superstorm Sandy: Ortley

view more 

Credit: Dr. Laura Geronimo and Image Courtesy of Toms River 2014 Strategic Recovery Planning Report

As climate hazards escalate, communities facing repetitive disasters in high-risk areas must weigh the economic and social trade-offs of rebuilding versus relocating. A Risk Analysis study has found that residents and government officials may have different ideas about how public funds should be spent to adapt to extreme weather events brought on  by climate change. 

WHAT THEY DID: 

To examine the process of rebuilding in a coastal community, Rutgers University researchers focused on Ortley Beach, a barrier island neighborhood in Toms River, New Jersey. Ortley Beach was devastated by Superstorm Sandy in 2012, with around 200 homes destroyed. Ten years after the storm (in the summer of 2022), the scientists conducted detailed key-informant interviews with Ortley Beach residents and local, state, and federal officials with the help of the Ortley Beach Voters and Taxpayers Association (OBVTA). The central question asked was whether public resources should support staying or leaving the island in the wake of severe repetitive flood losses. A questionnaire investigated their values, beliefs and worldviews -- to explore how those relate to their preferences for federal spending. Analysis of the results revealed important findings that could apply to “many communities on the frontlines of rising sea level and storm surge - like those in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana,” says lead author Laura Geronimo, a 2024 doctoral graduate of Rutgers Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy Ph.D. and current Knauss Fellow with NOAA. 

WHAT THEY FOUND: 

• Despite conflicting values, beliefs, and worldviews, all stakeholders identified the economic impacts of adaptation—like home elevations, beach nourishment, or buyouts—as a top concern, citing strain on household budgets, municipal finances, and challenges in prioritizing limited state and federal funding. 

• Residents emphasized the steep costs of post-Sandy rebuilding and home elevation, with some incurring over $100,000 in out-of-pocket expenses. Many also mentioned sharp increases in insurance premiums after Sandy. 

• Long-term residents were torn about whether federal and state subsidies should support efforts to stay or leave, citing concerns about how subsidies may create perverse incentives, distort coastal housing markets and catalyze gentrification. Many of these residents expressed support for considering alternatives like voluntary buyouts and nature-based solutions in long-range planning: “If we don’t do something to plan it out, it is just going to be a bunch of homes underwater”. 

• State and federal officials also supported considering buyouts in long-range planning, echoing these concerns.

• In contrast, local officials favored rebuilding high-value properties and protecting exposed barrier island communities despite obvious risk, referencing the need to preserve tax revenues from high-value properties. 

Local officials tended to hold more individualistic-hierarchical worldviews, weaker beliefs in climate science and favored actions to protect high-value properties to preserve the tax base while externalizing costs. In contrast, some residents and most state and federal officials held more community-egalitarian worldviews, stronger beliefs in climate science and preferences for long-term adaptation strategies to reduce risk, including property buyouts.  The study notes that, in 2022, the local government was Republican and the state and federal government was Democratic, while residents had mixed political ideologies.

“The contrast between local officials and residents reflects a broader cultural tension of whether to prioritize property values or human well-being when justifying protection measures” says Geronimo.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT: 

In the U.S., high-risk areas—particularly coastal regions—face dual pressures: escalating flood risk and intensifying development. Federal fiscal arrangements, including disaster aid, insurance and hazard mitigation programs, have historically enabled rebuilding in the same exposed locations. But this approach is under growing scrutiny. Critics argue that—in some areas experiencing severe repetitive losses—public funds may be more effectively used to support community-led relocation through tools like property buyouts and assistance. 

While the Biden administration invested heavily in hazard mitigation, the Trump administration has rescinded billions in funds, according to Geronimo. “Communities like those on the Jersey Shore, which rely heavily on federal transfers, may soon face a fiscal cliff,” she says. “Our study reveals that residents and officials across all levels of government are concerned about the financial implications of coastal risk strategies—underscoring the need to clearly demonstrate the long-term economic benefits of alternatives like voluntary relocation and to bolster both household and local fiscal resilience to climate and political shocks.” She and her co-authors recommend enhancing individual and local financial resilience through diversified revenue streams, proactive risk-based planning, innovative insurance models, and more transparent accounting of the long-term costs of rebuilding in high-risk areas. 

The methods and findings from this research are also valuable for communities experiencing extreme or repetitive losses from other types of hazards, including fire, tornadoes and extreme precipitation -- such as the recent tragedy along the Guadalupe River in Texas Hill Country. “The parallel examples of Ortley Beach and Camp Mystic illustrate that when rebuilding is allowed in repetitive loss areas, lives are at stake,” says Geronimo. 

About SRA   

The Society for Risk Analysis is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides an open forum for all those interested in risk analysis. SRA was established in 1980. Since 1982, it has continuously published Risk Analysis: An International Journal, the leading scholarly journal in the field. For more information, visit www.sra.org. 

### 

 

10 Years Later… there are Development pressures as well as Erosion Troubles

Credit

Image taken by Laura Geronimo – Ortley Beach, NJ & courtesy of nj.com (Rodas, 2023)

Process and impacts of rebuilding after the storms

Credit

Dr. Laura Geronimo

Journal

Risk Analysis

Article Title

AFTER THE STORM: TO REBUILD OR RELOCATE?

Article Publication Date

11-Aug-2025

 

Study urges reform in mental health screening for incarcerated youth

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Florida Atlantic University

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

FAU College of Education research suggests that the most used mental health screening tools for incarcerated youth may not be as reliable for everyone as once believed.

view more 

Credit: Alex Dolce, Florida Atlantic University

Approximately 70% of incarcerated youth in the United States have a mental disorder. The challenges in this population are profound – about 30% report suicidal thoughts, 12% have attempted suicide and 25% experience solitary confinement, a condition strongly associated with increased suicide risk. Depression is also widespread, affecting 10% to 25% of youth with moderate to severe symptoms.

Comprehensive mental health screenings play a vital role in identifying who requires immediate care, as well as those at risk for developing more serious issues. Without timely identification and intervention, these conditions can escalate, leading to long-term psychological harm, impaired functioning and an increased risk of suicide. As such, national guidelines recommend mental health screenings as standard practice within the juvenile justice system.

Several screening tools are used to assess depression and suicide risk in incarcerated youth. Some focus only on suicide, others on depression, and some cover both (like the APS-SF and MAYSI-2). The MAYSI-2 or Massachusetts Youth Screening Instrument – Second Version, is a short questionnaire commonly used in juvenile facilities to quickly check for signs of mental health issues and helps staff identify youth who may need further evaluation or immediate support.

While these tools generally show reliable and valid results, there’s limited research on how well they work specifically for incarcerated youth who are adjudicated delinquent, especially across different ethnic groups.

Researchers from Florida Atlantic University, and collaborators, examined the effectiveness of these commonly used screening tools in detecting depression and suicidality among incarcerated youth. They evaluated whether these tools accurately measure the intended mental health constructs by examining how scores related to depression and suicide risk align – focusing on both convergent and divergent validity – and whether these results remain consistent across different demographic groups. The goal is to help practitioners choose the most reliable and balanced tools for assessing mental health needs within the juvenile justice system.

Results of the study, published in the journal Behavioral Disorders, reveal troubling gaps in the accuracy and fairness of mental health screenings used with incarcerated youth who have been adjudicated delinquent. With a significant number of them entering correctional facilities and already facing serious mental health challenges, including high rates of depression and suicide risk, proper identification and timely intervention are critical. However, research findings suggest that the most used screening tools may not be as reliable for everyone as once believed.

The study also found that the strength of these measurements varied depending on the youth’s demographic background. Specifically, African American youth showed significantly lower validity scores on both depression and suicidality measures compared to white youth. For African American participants, the scores were nearly 0.1 lower for depression and almost 0.2 lower for suicidality. These differences raise concerns about whether current tools fairly assess youth from different backgrounds and if they unintentionally cause problems for these individuals during important decisions about their safety and care.

“Our study highlights a critical issue in our juvenile justice system,” said Joseph Calvin Gagnon, Ph.D., senior author and chair and professor, Department of Special Education within FAU’s College of Education. “The core philosophy of juvenile corrections is that youth can and should be rehabilitated – and that promise begins with proper mental health screening at intake. We rely on these tools to guide decisions that affect a young person’s safety, treatment and future. But our findings show that these screenings may not work similarly for all youth, particularly across different backgrounds. If we’re serious about justice and rehabilitation, we need to ensure that our assessments are not only accurate, but also fair. Anything less risks failing the very youth the system is meant to help.”

Despite the widespread use of tools like the MAYSI-2, the study highlights that relying solely on these measures may not be sufficient, and that there is urgent need for improved mental health assessments that are both psychometrically sound and culturally responsive. Moreover, there is a critical need to include additional information when screening incarcerated youth, including observation and clinical interviews with the child and caregiver informants. The researchers also identify the need for future studies using larger samples of adjudicated youth to better understand how these tools function and how they might be improved to identify more accurately those at risk.

“Without valid and fair screening practices, many youth may continue to go unrecognized and untreated, placing their mental health and lives at further risk,” said Gagnon. “Meaningful reform in mental health screening practices is essential to protect and support vulnerable youth in the juvenile justice system.”

Study co-authors are Jia Quan, Ph.D., the University of Kansas; Matthew L. Daley, Ph.D., the University of Florida; Corinne Huggins-Manley, Ph.D., the University of Florida; David E. Houchins, Ph.D., Georgia State University; Holly B. Lane, Ph.D., the University of Florida; Erica D. McCray, Ph.D., the University of Florida; and Richard G. Lambert, Ph.D., The University of North Carolina-Charlotte.

This study was supported by the Institute of Education Sciences (IES).

- FAU -

About the College of Education:

In 1964, Florida Atlantic University’s College of Education became South Florida’s first provider of education professionals. Dedicated to advancing research and educational excellence, the College is nationally recognized for its innovative programs, evidence-based training, and professional practice. The College spans five departments: Curriculum and Instruction, Educational Leadership and Research Methodology, Special Education, Counselor Education, and Communication Sciences and Disorders, to prepare highly skilled teachers, school leaders, counselors, and speech pathologists. Faculty engage in cutting-edge research supported by prestigious organizations, including the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Education, and the State of Florida.

 

About Florida Atlantic University:
Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, Florida Atlantic serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuses located along the Southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University has doubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievement rates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, Florida Atlantic embodies an innovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. Florida Atlantic is designated as a Hispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News & World Report, and holds the designation of “R1: Very High Research Spending and Doctorate Production” by the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. Florida Atlantic shares this status with less than 5% of the nearly 4,000 universities in the United States. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.

 

 

---

Journal

Behavioral Disorders

DOI

10.1177/01987429251349130 

Method of Research

Content analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Convergence, Divergence, and Predictive Validity in Depression and Suicidality Screening Tools with Adjudicated Youth Across Ethnicity

Strained relationships may make foster parents quit

New study finds couple relationship quality matters in foster family retention

University of Georgia

Facebook

WeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

With nearly 400,000 kids in the U.S. foster care system, the process for recruiting and retaining foster parents can be difficult.

And new University of Georgia research suggests the quality of relationship between the foster caregivers can have a direct impact on their desire to keep fostering.

Researchers from UGA’s College of Family and Consumer Sciences found that the less satisfied a couple was with their relationship, the less likely they — especially the mother — will want to continue fostering in the future.

The researchers surveyed dozens of foster caregiver couples, and three types of foster parent relationships emerged: Ones in which both partners reported having a strong relationship, ones in which both reported a moderately strong relationship and ones in which the fathers viewed their relationship as moderately strong, and the mothers viewed it as poor.

“The need for foster caregivers is extremely high right now, and retention is just as important. While foster family structure varies, in foster homes that are headed by a couple, a high-quality home involves a stable relationship and a warm and stable household,” said Evin Winkelman Richardson, corresponding author of the study and an assistant research scientist and co-director of the Couple and Relationship Enrichment Lab in the Department of Human Development and Family Science. “If a child moves into a home and then the foster caregivers decide to stop fostering, that’s another life disruption for that child, which adds to their traumatic experiences.”

Fostering challenges like time, rehabilitation impact relationships

Couples who choose to foster children face a variety of challenges.

Many children in foster care have previously experienced abuse or neglect. Some have lost a parent or had a parent incarcerated. As a result, these children frequently require extra time and care.

These additional stressors can influence the relationship between the foster parents.

“A lot of couples know fostering is going to be hard, but they don’t know how hard,” Richardson said. “Time constraints and commitments they make to help the child leave a lot less time for everything else. Foster caregivers say all the time that that’s one of their biggest challenges: They really don’t have any time for themselves or their partner.”

Couples who grew attached to their foster child often reported experiencing feelings of loss and grief when the child was placed in a permanent home.

“The foundation of your relationship is very important, especially in a challenging situation like being foster caregivers. If your relationship is strong, then you’re probably feeling like you can get through it. You have a strong co-parent in your corner,” Richardson said. “But with those challenges, really hard days and a relationship that isn’t as strong, it’s a lot more difficult to want to continue fostering.”

Foster mothers may drive decision to continue fostering

Couples that ranked their interpersonal relationship lower were less inclined to continue fostering. This may be because foster caregivers often report higher levels of conflict and burnout, and a loss of control in their relationships.

Mothers, in particular, were more likely to report not wanting to continue to foster when they perceived their relationship with their partner as unhealthy. This may be due to additional stress to perform well in the caregiver role and a lack of support from their partner.

If the mother was struggling, the couple was less likely to foster in the future — even if the father described their relationship as moderate.

"Interpersonal relationships are hard, and we all need a little help sometimes.”

—Evin Richardson, College of Family and Consumer Sciences

“In foster caregiver couples, women are much more likely to take on the caregiving responsibilities to be a homemaker and to take care of the children, so they take on a lot of the burden,” Richardson said. “That might be the driver of saying, ‘I’m the one that’s taking on so much of this responsibility. I don’t want to continue fostering because I’m taking on the bulk of the caregiving work.’”

Researchers recommend couples who foster children be open to relationship education and counseling to weather difficult circumstances.

“Interpersonal relationships are hard, and we all need a little help sometimes,” Richardson said. “It doesn’t mean that you’re a bad person or that your relationship is falling apart. Learning new knowledge and new skills to improve your relationship with your partner can really make a big difference in your life.”

This study was published in the journal Family Process and was funded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Additional co-authors include FACS faculty Ted Futris, FACS students Rachel Brown, Shuangyue Cui and Lydia Shepherd, and FACS staff Jessica Starke as well as East Carolina University’s Jacquelyn Mallette.

---

Journal

Family Process

DOI

10.1111/famp.70044 

Article Title

Dyadic Reports of Interparental Relationship Quality and Intentions to Continue Fostering Among Coupled Foster Caregivers

 

Provision of abortion medications using online asynchronous telemedicine under shield laws in the US

JAMA Network

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

About The Study: This study analyzes use of online asynchronous telemedicine abortion services for the period July 2023 through September 2024 via data from a nonprofit asynchronous telemedicine service that provides abortion medications throughout the U.S.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Abigail R. A. Aiken, PhD, email araa2@utexas.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jama.2025.11420)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

#  #  #

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2025.11420?guestAccessKey=2d73bd0a-4f31-4966-8938-1a18c78e56ee&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=081125

---

Journal

JAMA

 

Why these hairy caterpillars swarm every decade – then vanish without a trace

University of British Columbia

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

Western tent caterpillars build silken 'tents' to shelter in

view more 

Credit: Iain Myers-Smith

A 50-year love affair with hairy caterpillars reveals their squirmy secrets

Western tent caterpillars might not be on your mind every year, but during their peak outbreaks, they’re impossible to ignore—hairy larvae wriggling across roads and swarms of caterpillars climbing houses to form yellow silken cocoons.

They’re certainly on the mind of Dr. Judith Myers, professor emerita in the faculties of science and land and food systems, who has spent five decades studying this native moth species and their boom-and-bust population cycles.

In this Q&A, she discusses her journey and findings from  a recently published study, including the caterpillars’ surprising resistance to climate change.

Where are Western tent caterpillars?

These hairy, orange-black caterpillars occur across B.C., especially Vancouver Island and the southern Gulf Islands, ranging as far as Manitoba and California. They mostly feed on the leaves of red alder and fruit trees. Eggs hatch in April and the larvae stay together, building a silken ‘tent’ for warmth and shelter, hence their name. In early June, the larvae leave their tents to find vertical surfaces and safer places off the ground to pupate. This can lead to dense clusters on fences, walls, and houses — a sight many people find revolting. After a year or two at high density, population numbers drop and tent caterpillars are temporarily forgotten.  

In large numbers, tent caterpillars can defoliate fruit trees. On Salt Spring Island, a severe outbreak in 2012 led to the cancellation of the apple festival. Tourists visiting the Gulf Islands have been known to cut their visit short in response to caterpillar outbreaks. And they’re apparently no good to eat, as they’re thought to have caused severe illness to a horse that accidentally ingested larvae.

What drew you to study these insects for five decades?

I've always been interested in what causes animal populations to rise and fall. After I moved to British Columbia in 1972, my interest grew when my husband and I were courting. He worked on Mandarte Island studying song sparrows, and I often joined him on the weekends. While he worked on sparrows, I observed the caterpillars—a fascination from a graduate seminar I gave years earlier. Over time, I became captivated by how their cycles interact with natural controls like viral disease.

What have we learned about these fuzzy critters?

Over the years, myself and other researchers have confirmed that a virus specific to these caterpillars was driving the populations’ cyclicdeclines, something seen in some other moth species as well.

My research partner and SFU professor Dr. Jenny Cory and I observed that outbreaks occur simultaneously across islands and the mainland. We were surprised to find that as populations increase, some female moths must fly tens of kilometres to lay their eggs in areas where populations previously went extinct.

Interestingly, over 50 years, we haven’t seen any effect of global warming on these insect populations. They’re highly adapted to the environment — basking in the sun when it’s cool and sheltering under tents when it’s hot.

Perhaps we humans can learn about our own adaptability from tent caterpillars -  are we too defoliating our own “trees” with a booming global population which the Earth can’t support?

When can we expect our hairy overlords to descend again?

The last major outbreak was in 2023 on Galiano and other islands including Westham Island in the lower mainland of BC. This year, we found just one tent in our study area on Galiano. That crash is typical, but tent caterpillars will begin to increase gradually over the next six to eight years to reach another outbreak.

Outbreaks can be predicted, and their damage controlled:

• As numbers begin increasing, we can often forecast an outbreak three years ahead. This is the time to start checking in April for small, hairy larvae and silky tents in fruit trees
• To protect your backyard, early intervention helps. If you see egg masses in winter or tiny larvae forming tents in spring, you can remove them before they damage trees
• Commercial fruit growers often use Btk, a safe and effective microbial insecticide. But it works best if applied early, before the caterpillars cause significant damage
• Remember not to panic: the virus acts as a natural control as the caterpillars become overcrowded

These hairy, orange-black caterpillars occur across B.C., ranging as far as Manitoba and California

Credit

Iain Myers-Smith

Journal

Journal of Animal Ecology

DOI

10.1111/1365-2656.70104