BSC leads development of an early warning system that predicts dengue outbreaks in the Caribbean months in advance

A new dengue prediction model captures the interplay between drought, heat, and extreme rainfall conditions to forecast dengue outbreak risk three months in advance

Barcelona Supercomputing Center

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

A Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder which measures daily sunlight duration located at the Barbados Meteorological Service weather station, Charnocks, Barbados. 

view more 

Credit: Rachel Lowe (BSC)

In an advance for climate-informed disease early warning systems, a team of researchers, public health actors and meteorologists have developed a prediction model capable of forecasting dengue outbreaks in the Caribbean up to three months in advance. The study, led by Chloe Fletcher and Rachel Lowe, from the Global Health Resilience group at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), introduces a predictive model that captures the complex interplay between drought, heat, and extreme rainfall conditions on dengue outbreak risk in Barbados.

These extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense in the Caribbean due to climate change. At the same time, dengue outbreaks and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, such as Chikungunya and Zika, have become increasingly common and explosive across the region over the last 15 years.

Fuelled by climate change, the global incidence of dengue has also increased significantly over the past two decades, posing a major public health challenge. In 2024, 14.1 million dengue cases were reported worldwide, surpassing the historic milestone of 7 million observed in 2023, where over 92% of cases were recorded in the Americas. Significant outbreaks also occurred in Southeast Asia and Africa and even Europe has experienced sporadic local transmission in countries like Italy, France, and Spain, indicating a growing risk of establishment as mosquito vectors expand across the continent.

The effect of successive extreme weather events on dengue outbreak risk

The model presented in the study, published in the prestigious journal The Lancet Planetary Health, incorporates interactions between climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation indicators at varying time lags, to predict the probability of a dengue outbreak and the approximate number of cases in Barbados three months in advance. Specifically, the research found that extremely dry conditions 5 months prior to an outbreak, followed by warmer temperatures 3 months prior, and heavy rainfall 1 month prior, led to the highest incidence of dengue. Using this approach, the model correctly identified 81% of observed outbreaks during model validation from 2012 to 2022, significantly outperforming traditional surveillance models.

"This modelling approach allows us to account for the effect of successive extreme weather events on disease outbreak risk," said Chloe Fletcher, first author of the study and PhD candidate at the BSC’s Global Health Resilience group. “By focusing on interactions between climatic drivers, we were able to better anticipate dengue outbreak risk in Barbados. These forecasts provide local and regional decision-makers with timely, actionable information to mitigate or prevent an outbreak from occurring.”

National dengue early warning system in Barbados

In partnership with the Barbados Ministry of Health and Wellness and other regional health and meteorological agencies, the team applied the model in a real-world context ahead of the ICC Men's Twenty20 (T20) Cricket World Cup in June 2024. The model predicted a 95% probability of a dengue outbreak based on observed cases and forecasted climate conditions as of March 2024, prompting additional checks and re-treatments of known mosquito breeding sites around the cricket venue and nearby communities ahead of the tournament.

ICREA Professor and leader of the Global Health Resilience group, Rachel Lowe, senior author of the study, emphasized the broader significance of the research: “This study brings us a step closer to implementing early warning systems for climate-sensitive infectious diseases in the Caribbean. What we have piloted in Barbados could be adapted to other regions facing similar public health risks.” From 2025, the model will become part of a national dengue early warning system in Barbados.

Looking ahead, the research team plans to validate further the model and explore its application to other climate-sensitive diseases and geographic contexts. Their work offers a powerful example of how interdisciplinary collaboration—spanning epidemiology, climate science, and public health—can help mitigate disease risks in an era of increasing climatic uncertainty.

Caption attached picture: A Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder which measures daily sunlight duration located at the Barbados Meteorological Service weather station, Charnocks, Barbados. Credit: Rachel Lowe (BSC).

BSC media contact: communication@bsc.es

---

Journal

The Lancet Planetary Health

DOI

10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.06.003 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Compound and cascading effects of climatic extremes on dengue outbreak risk in the Caribbean: an impact-based modelling framework with long-lag and short-lag interactions

Article Publication Date

18-Aug-2025

 

Genetic cause of feline atherosclerosis identified – potential also for human therapies

University of Helsinki

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

A mutation in the LDLR gene, a key gene in the regulation of cholesterol, is a factor in atherosclerosis in Korat cats.

view more 

Credit: Marko Lumikangas

Researchers from the University of Helsinki and the Folkhälsan Research Center have identified the genetic cause of atherosclerosis, an arterial disease occurring in cats. The discovery may help prevent the incidence of the disease in cats and possibly open new courses for human therapies.

An arterial disease, recently discovered in cats of the Korat breed, resembles genetic familial hypercholesterolemia (FH), a cholesterol disorder in humans. Affected cats have been observed to have very high blood cholesterol levels, fatty deposits in the blood vessels and clinical symptoms, such as heart and renal failure as well as arterial thrombosis in the lower limbs. 

“We identified a mutation in the LDLR gene, a key gene in the regulation of cholesterol, as a factor in atherosclerosis in Korat cats. The same gene is by far the most significant cause of FH in humans,” says Docent Marjo Hytönen of the University of Helsinki and the Folkhälsan Research Center.

In humans, the disorder is often inherited from one parent but in cats the symptoms occur only if the defective gene is inherited from both parents. Approximately one fifth of Korat cats carry the defective gene without symptoms. 

“The gene discovery makes it possible to identify carriers using a genetic test, helping Korat breeders prevent the incidence of the disease,” Hytönen continues.

Evolutionary traits open up new research avenues 

The feline genome brings an exciting new angle to research. As a result of evolution, cats lack another significant gene associated with cholesterol regulation, PCSK9. In humans, this gene regulates the quantity of LDL receptors in the liver. Consequently, the lack of PCSK9 has previously been thought to protect cats from arterial diseases by intensifying LDL receptor functioning and improving cholesterol elimination from the body.

“It is interesting that the absence of the PCSK9 gene did not in fact entirely protect cats from arterial disease. This creates a unique opportunity for investigating the LDL receptor defect without the effect of this gene, and it likely explains the differences in models of inheritance between humans and cats,” says Professor Hannes Lohi of the University of Helsinki and the Folkhälsan Research Center.

Boost to gene therapy from the feline model?

The LDLR gene defect identified in cats would be an excellent structural fit for gene manipulation experiments. The research group is considering cellular-level tests to fix the gene defect using genome editing techniques.

“This finding not only deepens our understanding of genetically high cholesterol levels in the blood and atherosclerosis in humans, but potentially also lays the groundwork for new courses of treatment,” Lohi sums up.

---

Journal

Animal Genetics

DOI

10.1111/age.70030 

Article Title

A feline model of human low-density lipoprotein receptor-related atherosclerosis

 

Northern losses and southern gains – climate change reshapes moth communities across Finland

University of Helsinki

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

Cold-adapted species are disappearing in northern Finland while southern Finland is seeing an influx of new warm-adapted species.

view more 

Credit: Pinja Kettunen

The warming climate is transforming moth communities across Finland. According to researchers at the University of Helsinki, northern cold-adapted species are becoming rarer while southern Finland is seeing an influx of warm-adapted species from the mainland Europe.

A new study published in Nature Communications, led by the University of Helsinki examined how climate change is altering moth communities across Finland. The researchers wanted to understand whether communities are undergoing  thermophilisation – a shift towards species that prefer warmer conditions – as the climate warms.  

Their findings confirm that Finnish moth communities are becoming increasingly dominated by warm-adapted species. While the thermophilisation was observed across the country, the mechanisms that lead to it were strikingly different. 

In northern Finland, thermophilisation was occurring at a faster rate and primarily driven by the local disappearance of cold-adapted species. In contrast, southern Finland experienced thermophilisation through the arrival of new warm-adapted species, while most resident species persisted.  

These findings suggest that cold-adapted species in northern Finland are particularly vulnerable under climate change, as the communities face more species losses than additions. This pattern points to a greater risk for communities at the cold edge of species' climatic ranges. 

“The rate of change in the composition of moth communities was twice as fast in the north compared to the south,” says lead author Dr. Emilie Ellis from the Research Centre for Ecological Change. “That rapid pace makes northern biodiversity especially vulnerable to the harmful effects of climate warming.” 

Recognising that cold-adapted species are at risk will help to inform conservation strategies to support Finnish biodiversity. According to researchers continued monitoring and research are therefore crucial to track how these species are changing over time. 

The team drew on a long-term dataset built through decades of dedicated volunteer monitoring. It includes more than 224,000 moth observations collected across Finland’s 1,200 km length over a 30-year period. This extraordinary effort made it possible to uncover how climate change is reshaping moth community composition across the country. 

The research was done in collaboration with the Finnish Environment Institute.

---

Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-025-62216-9 

Article Title

Recent community warming of moths in Finland is driven by extinction in the north and colonisation in the south

Article Publication Date

12-Aug-2025

 

Shared memories, different emotions. How Polish families talk about their migration to Germany

SWPS University

Facebook

XLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

Does the decision to leave the country unite or divide migrant families? The latest study by Polish researchers shows how parents and their adult children jointly build narratives about their lives in Germany - sometimes harmoniously, sometimes with very different emotional tones. The research was conducted as part of the IRIMTA project by Paula Pustułka, PhD, a professor at the SWPS University, and Zuzanna Kapciak, a doctoral candidate at the SWPS University Doctoral School.

Migrations from Poland to Germany have a long tradition. Today, over 870,000 people with Polish citizenship and over two million classified as those with a Polish migration background live there. It is the second largest ethnic group in the country. Despite this scale, Polish migrants in Germany remain relatively understudied, particularly in terms of the inner diversification of gendered and generational experiences.

To expand knowledge about generational changes and relations in Polish migrant families in Germany, Zuzanna Kapciak and Paula Pustułka from SWPS University conducted a study and analysed data on how emigration decisions were made and how young adults raised outside Poland, together with their parents, jointly create and tell their families' migration stories. The results, published in the journal Studia Migracyjne - Przegląd Polonijny, shed new light on the intergenerational experiences of migrants and show that stories of leaving the country remain vivid and important in families for decades.

How different generations perceive migration

The researchers interviewed 22 members of Polish families in Germany: parents who left Poland approximately 25 years ago (when they were 20-40 years old) and their adult children aged 18-29. These young people represent 1.5 generation migrants (who came to Germany as children) and second generation migrants (born in Germany).

Interestingly, parents and their adult children construct their Poland to Germany migration stories quite similarly. Their stories - be it positive or difficult - are consistent and usually refer to the same key events. The stories of young adults from the 1.5 generation, those who moved as children, sometimes reveal elements of a sense of lack of agency. This means that some young people, as children, did not want to leave Poland and tried to protest, but were not heard and had to adapt. We identified this as the main difference, because young adults born in Germany do not recall such experiences, Kapciak says. For parents, on the other hand, moving is a choice, albeit with varying motivations and not always considered the right one today, but it is still a perspective demonstrating self-determination and decision-making, Pustułka adds.

Reasons for migration: Women folow their hearts, men follow the money

An analysis of the interviews revealed clear differences in the motivations for moving depending on gender. Women were much more likely to emphasise emotional factors: following a loved one, reuniting with family, and the duty a wife has towards her husband. Men, on the other hand, focused on the improved economic situation and generally better career prospects. They perceived Germany as a place where they could better fulfil the 'provider' role.

Young people in the migration process

One of the most important findings of the study concerns the role of the younger generation in constructing family migration narratives. It turns out that even those born in Germany are quite knowledgeable about their parents' migration story and actively participate in its telling. The accounts where both young adults and their interviewed parents consistently evaluate migration negatively are particularly interesting. This is often linked to difficult family situations - relationship breakdowns or integration problems.

What can migrant families do to better cope with adaptation difficulties? Zuzanna Kapciak points out that this while is a very complex issue, in her opinion, the most important thing is for them to seek support. Both professional (psychological, legal, vocational) and social one, in the form of integration into the new environment, as well as maintaining ties to one's own culture.

Anyone who considers migration with their children should remember to prepare children for it before departure, and support them once they arrive. The beginnings are difficult for everyone, and amidst the numerous ongoing matters, it is easy to forget this, advises Zuzanna Kapciak.

Paula Pustułka points out that the migrating child's age is extremely important, and adolescence, being a teenager, is not necessarily easy to reconcile with a revolution in the form of a change in educational and peer environments. Migration then becomes a huge biographical challenge, which the young person must then work through later in life. Migration is not always unquestionably easier for younger children, but they are simply easier to support, because parents, not peers, are their pillars and points of reference.

Migration as a process

The study by researchers from SWPS University shows that migration is not a one-time event, but a process that unfolds over decades and generations. Family stories about moving can connect generations in a shared narrative of a better life, but also perpetuate resentments. This has profound implications for understanding contemporary migration in Europe: it demonstrates that the experience of moving is not just an individual decision, but a family project.

The study also shows that transnational ties do not end with the first or even second generation living abroad. Young people of Polish descent who live in Germany maintain emotional and practical connections with Poland, often viewing their bicultural experience as an asset rather than a burden.

Migrants keep thinking about Poland, even if geographically they are away from the country. Linguistic capital in the form of knowledge of Polish was often cited by young adults of Polish descent in Germany as very helpful in finding their way as they transition into adulthood, also in education and the labour market, the sociologist emphasises.

What does this mean for Polish migration policy?

The results of the study have practical implications for policies in both Poland and Germany. They show that 1.5 and second generations of Polish migrants can be an important bridge in building transnational relations. Young people often perceive their Polish origins as a resource. The study also suggests the need for a more nuanced approach to migrant integration - one that accounts for the importance of family stories and intergenerational relationships in shaping identity and the sense of belonging.

Our study illustrates that young adults of Polish descent who grew up in Germany lack a sense that Poland cares for them in any way through migration programmes and policies. This is a group of young people with political and economic potential, they should be encouraged to live transnationally, mindful of their identity ties with Poland. Solid diaspora policies, which could be addressed by the individuals in question, could strengthen international relations with our neighbours, Pustułka points out. Zuzanna Kapciak, the second co-author of the study, adds: With our study, we want to show that migration is a part of human life; it is a key point in many life stories. We should allow everyone to shape their paths in the way that suits them, which means that we should not make system-wide decision on who can cross the border and where, but instead leave these decisions it in the hands of people who know what is best for them.

Paula Pustułka adds that, in addition to building resilience and seeking support, a flexible approach to mobility is crucial: Historically, we've viewed migration as either a "forever" decision – for example, in the context of moving to the United States – or a "for a while" one – for example, when the goal was seasonal work. Migration of entire families should be carefully considered by parents to give their children a sense of stability, but we certainly should not think that we have to remain migrants "at all costs". If the experience of living abroad is too burdensome for your family, you can return, emigrate elsewhere, or delay your departure until the children grow up, the researcher points out.

---

Journal

Studia Migracyjne – Przegląd Polonijny

DOI

10.4467/25444972SMPP.25.004.21387 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Migration Decisions and Paths in Family Stories of Polish Intergenerational Dyads in Germany

 

Targeting high agility aviation electro-mechanical actuation: ADRC emerges as key to high-dynamic servo drives

Tsinghua University Press

Facebook

WeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

 

image: 

The method involves changing the triple-loop cascade control to a dual-loop control architecture with an integrated outer loop for position and speed control and an inner loop for current control. Meanwhile, aviation electro-mechanical actuation systems face various nonlinear constraints, such as voltage, current, mechanical stress, power supply characteristics, and heat dissipation. It is necessary to achieve performance optimization through nonlinear ADRC.

view more 

Credit: Chinese Journal of Aeronautics

With the rapid development of electrified transportation, there has been a growing demand for high-dynamic and high-precision Electro-Mechanical Actuation (EMA) servo drives in the aviation field. However, EMA applications face more severe multi-source disturbances than industrial servo drives. This issue has received extensive attention in the aviation field. Active Disturbance Rejection Control (ADRC) is a novel control structure that employs disturbance suppression. ADRC does not rely on an accurate model, exhibiting robustness to uncertainties.

Recently, Chunqiang Liu from Xidian University published an article on the active disturbance rejection control of electro-mechanical actuation servo drives. This article focuses on ADRC-based servo control and summarizes the main challenges and existing solutions for aviation EMA servo drives. Firstly, multiple disturbances in electro-mechanical servo systems are analyzed, then the disturbance rejection methods for the current loop and position loop are summarized, and finally, the development trends of aviation electro-mechanical servo control are addressed, along with the challenges faced by servo control.

The team published their work in Chinese Journal of Aeronautics (Vol. 38, Issue 7, 2025).

The research provides a comprehensive overview, examining how ADRC can be applied effectively at different levels of the control system – from the high-level position loop (ensuring something moves exactly where it should) down to the electrical current loop (managing the motor's core power) – to suppress disturbances comprehensively. The core message emerging from this research is the significant promise of ADRC for revolutionizing aviation servo drives. Unlike traditional methods that might struggle with complex, unpredictable real-world disturbances, ADRC takes a fundamentally different approach: ADRC cleverly estimates the total disturbances in real-time, whether they come from electrical parameters or changing loads. Once estimated, ADRC generates a precise counter-signal to actively cancel out these disturbances before they can degrade performance. This proactive disturbance rejection directly translates to the holy grail of servo control: significantly enhanced control bandwidth (faster response), superior steady-state positioning accuracy (pinpoint control), and improved overall efficiency.

While ADRC shows immense potential, the research also highlights the hurdles scientists and engineers are actively working to overcome: Online adaptation of the ADRC control system’s bandwidth, optimal ADRC servo control under multiple constraints and high-order time-varying disturbances suppression. Seamlessly integrating ADRC into existing complex aircraft control architectures and ensuring its robustness under all flight scenarios requires further development. Extensive testing on actual flight hardware under realistic operational stresses is the crucial next step beyond simulation and lab work.

The ultimate goal of the aviation electro-mechanical actuation system is to develop high-performance, ultra-reliable and highly efficient solutions to achieve: more sensitive unmanned aircraft and critical flight control surface systems, quieter and more reliable cabin and cargo compartment mechanisms, while improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption.

Other contributors include Guangzhao Luo, Zhe Chen from the School of Automation at Northwestern Polytechnical University in Shaanxi, China; Xiaofeng Ding from the Automation Science and Electrical Engineering at Beihang University in Beijing, China.

 

Original Source

Chunqiang LIU, Guangzhao LUO, Zhe CHEN, Xiaofeng DING. Overview on active disturbance rejection control for electro-mechanical actuation servo drive [J]. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cja.2024.11.002.

 

About Chinese Journal of Aeronautics 

Chinese Journal of Aeronautics (CJA) is an open access, peer-reviewed international journal covering all aspects of aerospace engineering, monthly published by Elsevier. The Journal reports the scientific and technological achievements and frontiers in aeronautic engineering and astronautic engineering, in both theory and practice. CJA is indexed in SCI (IF = 5.7, Q1), EI, IAA, AJ, CSA, Scopus.

---

Journal

Chinese Journal of Aeronautics

DOI

10.1016/j.cja.2024.11.002 

Article Title

Overview on active disturbance rejection control for electro-mechanical actuation servo drive