What traits matter when predicting disease emergence in new populations?

Traits of early virus spread help determine if a virus will ultimately persist in a new population, according to new research

Penn State

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UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — When a disease-causing virus or other organism is transmitted from one species to another, most of the time the infection sputters and dies out. On rare occasions, the infection can perpetuate transmission in the new host species and cause a pandemic. For example, scientists are keeping a close eye on H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza, which causes bird flu and has been found in cows and humans. But is there a way to anticipate when infections will die out on their own and when they will persist?

New research, led by scientists at Penn State and the University of Minnesota Duluth, identified certain characteristics that could help predict whether the pathogen will stick around. Understanding how a virus spreads and what influences its spread soon after it spills over to a new population could provide information to help stop new diseases from spreading, the team said.

The study was published today (Aug. 21) in the journal PLOS Biology.

“Pandemic prevention efforts largely focus on identifying the next pandemic pathogen, but that’s like finding a needle in the haystack,” said David Kennedy, associate professor of biology at Penn State and senior author on the paper. “This work helps us figure out which outbreaks to worry about so that we can direct our public health resources where they need to go to prevent and respond to disease emergence.”

While pandemics are extremely rare, spillover events — where viruses move between different host species — happen all the time, according to the research team. With so much viral transmission occurring, it’s nearly impossible for scientists to pinpoint which spillover events to pay attention to.

“We wanted to know if there is anything we can measure directly after a spillover event or if there are characteristics of a spillover event that would be predictive of whether the virus would or would not persist in a new population,” said Clara Shaw, lead author of the study. Shaw was a postdoctoral scholar in biology at Penn State at the time the research was conducted and is now assistant professor of biology at the University of Minnesota Duluth.

The researchers studied viral spillover in a worm model system, which allowed the team to examine disease transmission and emergence at a population level rather than within individual animals, Shaw said. They studied eight strains of worms that belong to seven species of the Caenorhabditis nematode, a model system for disease that shares a large number of genes with humans.

To induce a spillover event, the worms were exposed to Orsay virus, a nematode virus. The species of worms assessed in the study are at least partially susceptible to Orsay virus but vary in their ability to transmit it. The worm populations reproduced and grew for between five to 13 days. Then, the researchers transferred 20 adult worms to a new, virus-free Petri dish where the worms could reproduce and grow again. They repeated this process, transferring worms to new Petri dishes up to 10 times or until the virus was no longer detected in the worms.

The researchers then measured specific traits of the population of worms remaining on the initial plate — what fraction of the population is infected; how much virus is inside of each infected worm; how much virus do they shed; and how susceptible are they to the virus? Using mathematical models, the scientists looked at each trait individually and then together to determine if any of the characteristics were linked to virus emergence as the worms were transferred to new plates.

The researchers found that the dynamics of how the virus spreads during the few days after transmission are important for predicting long-term viral persist. For example, three factors were all positively correlated with whether a virus will take off in the new host population — infection prevalence or the fraction of the exposed population that’s infected; viral shedding or the ability to release copies of the virus into the environment; and infection susceptibility or how vulnerable the hosts are to the virus.

Infection prevalence and viral shedding were of particular significance, the researchers said. More than half of the differences seen in whether the virus persists in the worms can be linked to these characteristics that were detected in the initial plate.

“That means these early traits can actually tell us quite a bit about what's going to happen way off in the future,” Kennedy said.

The researchers also found infection intensity, or the severity of the infection, did not predict virus persistence.

The researchers said they plan to build on this work. Next, they will explore how pathogens adapt to new hosts to understand the evolutionary changes that occur at the genetic level. For instance, Kennedy said they’re interested in understanding what genetic changes allowed the pathogen to persist and when those changes occurred.

Funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation supported this work.

At Penn State, researchers are solving real problems that impact the health, safety and quality of life of people across the commonwealth, the nation and around the world.

For decades, federal support for research has fueled innovation that makes our country safer, our industries more competitive and our economy stronger. Recent federal funding cuts threaten this progress.

Learn more about the implications of federal funding cuts to our future at Research or Regress.

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Journal

PLOS Biology

DOI

10.1371/journal.pbio.3003315 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Early epidemiological characteristics explain the chance of population-level virus persistence following spillover events

Article Publication Date

21-Aug-2025

Zoo populations hold key to saving Pacific pocket mouse

New study shows the benefit of genetic rescue through mixing mice from different populations to create genetically healthier population

San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance

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An endangered Pacific pocket mouse, native to Southern California, stands on natural substrate

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Credit: San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance

PHOTOS AND VIDEO: 

https://sandiegozoo.box.com/s/mu2h8bea811yx58oq11fs4q8l3binow8

SAN DIEGO (Aug. 21, 2025) – Endangered Pacific pocket mice, native to Southern California, were once thought to be extinct until a tiny remnant population was rediscovered in the mid-1990s. San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance established a conservation breeding and reintroduction program to save the species from extinction. Though there has been significant success with breeding and reintroduction, the species is still at risk of losing genetic diversity, which reduces its survival and reproduction. 

In a new study published in the prestigious scientific journal Science on August 21, San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance researchers demonstrate how genetic rescue can be used as an effective strategy for the conservation of this species. This strategy includes introducing Pacific pocket mice from genetically distinct populations for breeding purposes to boost genetic diversity and, in turn, the health of the population.  

The research findings provide a contrast to commonly held perceptions about the risks of outbreeding depression that currently limit the use of genetic rescue in conservation programs.

“When species are restricted to small, isolated populations, genetic erosion can lead to poor health. Our study examined the trade-offs between genetic erosion and outbreeding depression in Pacific pocket mice, and we find that the benefits of genetic rescue outweigh the risks of keeping these populations in isolation,” said lead author, Aryn Wilder, San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance Conservation Genetics researcher.  

The researchers suggest shifting the focus from maintaining the genetic uniqueness of populations to maximizing the genetic health of the species. They also highlight the important role that zoos and managed care facilities play in preventing species extinction. 

“Erosion in diversity seen in wild populations was reversed when we mixed mice from different populations,” said Wilder. “The genetically healthier population had higher survival and reproductive success. Although different numbers of chromosomes carried by the mice from different populations increase the risk of incompatibilities in the mixed breeding program, the non-mixed mice have even lower fitness, indicating a greater risk of extinction if the populations remain isolated.” 

San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance researchers have been studying the factors, including genomic variation, that maximize the health of populations and ensure the successful production of the fittest offspring for release into the wild. San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance brought in 49 mice from the wild and produced more than 700 mice at its facility, including 94 births last year. In 2024, San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance and partners also began releasing Pacific pocket mice to a second site, resulting in 100 pups born in the wild at that site. 

With two-thirds of the Earth’s species undergoing population decline, the implications of this research extend beyond Pacific pocket mice and demonstrate the value of genetic rescue for species facing extinction. It also highlights how zoos can serve a vital role in conservation of at-risk species. 

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About San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance
San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, a nonprofit conservation leader, inspires passion for nature and collaboration for a healthier world. The Alliance supports innovative conservation science through global partnerships and groundbreaking efforts at the world-famous San Diego Zoo and San Diego Zoo Safari Park, both leading zoological institutions and accredited botanical gardens. Through wildlife care expertise, cutting-edge science and continued collaboration, more than 44 endangered species have been reintroduced to native habitats. The Alliance reaches over 1 billion people annually through its two conservation parks and media channels in 170 countries, including San Diego Zoo Wildlife Explorers television, available in children’s hospitals across 14 countries. Wildlife Allies—members, donors and guests—make success possible. 

Link includes: 

• B-roll and photos of Pacific pocket mice

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Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adn4666 

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Fitness benefits of genetic rescue despite chromosomal differences in an endangered pocket mouse

Article Publication Date

21-Aug-2025

The “Mississippi Bubble” and the complex history of Haiti

Historian Malick Ghachem’s new book illuminates the pre-revolutionary changes that set Haiti’s long-term economic structure in place

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Cambridge, MA – Many things account for Haiti’s modern troubles. A good perspective on them comes from going back in time to 1715 or so — and grappling with a far-flung narrative involving the French monarchy, a financial speculator named John Law, and a stock-market crash called the “Mississippi Bubble.”

To condense: After the death of Louis XIV in 1715, France was mired in debt following decades of war. The country briefly turned over its economic policy to Law, a Scotsman who implemented a system in which, among other things, French debt was retired while private monopoly companies expanded overseas commerce.

This project did not go entirely as planned. Stock-market speculation created the “Mississippi Bubble” and crash of 1719-20. Amid the chaos, Law lost a short-lived fortune and left France.

Yet Law’s system had lasting effects. French expansionism helped spur Haiti’s “sugar revolution” of the early 1700s, in which the country’s economy first became oriented around labor-intensive sugar plantations. Using enslaved workers and deploying violence against political enemies, plantation owners helped define Haiti’s current-day geography and place within the global economy, creating an extractive system benefitting a select few.

While there has been extensive debate about how the Haitian Revolution of 1789-1804 (and the 1825 “indemnity” Haiti agreed to pay France) has influenced the country’s subsequent path, the events of the early 1700s help illuminate the whole picture.

“This is a moment of transformation for Haiti’s history that most people don’t know much about,” says MIT historian Malick Ghachem. “And it happened well before independence. It goes back to the 18th century when Haiti began to be enmeshed in the debtor-creditor relationships from which it has never really escaped. The 1720s was the period when those relationships crystallized.”

Ghachem examines the economic transformations and multi-sided power struggles of that time in a new book, “The Colony and the Company: Haiti after the Mississippi Bubble,” published this summer by Princeton University Press.

“How did Haiti come to be the way it is today? This is the question everybody asks about it,” says Ghachem. “This book is an intervention in that debate.”

 

Enmeshed in the crisis

Ghachem is both a professor and head of MIT’s program in history. A trained lawyer, his work ranges across France’s global history and American legal history. His 2012 book “The Old Regime and the Haitian Revolution,” also situated in pre-revolutionary Haiti, examines the legal backdrop of the drive for emancipation.

“The Colony and the Company” draws on original archival research while arriving at two related conclusions: Haiti was a big part of the global bubble of the 1710s, and that bubble and its aftermath is a big part of Haiti’s history.

After all, until the late 1600s, Haiti, then known as Saint Domingue, was “a fragile, mostly ungoverned, and sparsely settled place of uncertain direction,” as Ghachem writes in the book. The establishment of Haiti’s economy is not just the background of later events, but a formative event on its own.

And while the “sugar revolution” may have reached Haiti sooner or later, it was amplified by France’s quest for new sources of revenue. Louis XIV’s military agenda had been a fiscal disaster for the French. Law — a convicted murderer, and evidently a persuasive salesman — proposed a restructuring scheme that concentrated revenue-raising and other fiscal powers in a monopoly overseas trading company and bank overseen by Law himself.

As France sought economic growth beyond its borders, that led the company to Haiti, to tap its agricultural potential. For that matter, as Ghachem details, multiple countries were expanding their overseas activities — and France, Britain, and Spain also increased slave-trading activities markedly. Within a few decades, Haiti was a center of global sugar production, based on slave labor.

“When the company is seen as the answer to France’s own woes, Haiti becomes enmeshed in the crisis,” Ghachem says. “The Mississippi Bubble of 1719-20 was really a global event. And one of the theaters where it played out most dramatically was Haiti.”

As it happens, in Haiti, the dynamics of this were complex. Local planters did not want to be answerable to Law’s company, and fended it off, but, as Ghachem writes,  they “internalized and privatized the financial and economic logic of the System against which they had re­belled, making of it a script for the management of plantation society.”

That society was complex. One of the main elements of “The Colony and the Company” is the exploration of its nuances. Haiti was home to a variety of people, including Jesuit missionaries, European women who had been re-settled there, and maroons (freed or escaped slaves living apart from plantations), among others. Plantation life came with violence, civic instability, and a lack of economic alternatives.

“What’s called the ‘success’ of the colony as a French economic force is really inseparable from the conditions that make it hard for Haiti to survive as an independent nation after the revolution,” Ghachem observes.

 

Stories in a new light

In public discourse, questions about Haiti’s past are often considered highly relevant to its present, as a near-failed state whose capital city is now substantially controlled by gangs, with no end to violence in sight. Some people draw a through line between the present and Haiti’s revolutionary-era condition. But to Ghachem, the revolution changed some political dynamics, but not the underlying conditions of life in the country.

“One [view] is that it’s the Haitian Revolution that leads to Haiti’s immiseration and violence and political dysfunction and its economic underdevelopment,” Ghachem says. “I think that argument is wrong. It’s an older problem that goes back to Haiti’s relationship with France in the late 17th and early 18th centuries. The revolution compounds that problem, and does so significantly, because of how France responds. But the terms of Haiti’s subordination are already set.”

Other scholars have praised “The Colony and the Company.” Pernille Røge of the University of Pittsburgh has called it “a multilayered and deeply compelling history rooted in a careful analysis of both familiar and unfamiliar primary sources.”

For his part, Ghachem hopes to persuade anyone interested in Haiti’s past and present to look more expansively at the subject, and consider how the deep roots of Haiti’s economy have helped structure its society.

“I’m trying to keep up with the day job of a historian,” Ghachem says. “Which includes finding stories that aren’t well-known, or are well-known and have aspects that are underappreciated, and telling them in a new light.”

John Law's Company - Wikipedia

Cambridge scientist reveals how curiosity transformed toxic protein discovery

Professor David Rubinsztein shares personal journey from Cape Town to becoming autophagy pioneer

Genomic Press

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David C. Rubinsztein, MB ChB, BSc(Hons), PhD, FRCPath, FMedSci, FRS, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.

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Credit: David C. Rubinsztein

CAMBRIDGE, Cambridgeshire, UNITED KINGDOM, 19 August 2025 -- In a revealing Genomic Press Interview published today in Brain Medicine, Dr. David Rubinsztein shares the remarkable journey that led him to discover how cells naturally clear toxic proteins that cause devastating neurodegenerative diseases. The comprehensive interview unveils both the scientific breakthroughs and personal philosophy that have positioned autophagy modulation at the forefront of therapeutic innovation for conditions affecting millions worldwide.

From Cape Town Curiosity to Cambridge Discovery

Dr. Rubinsztein traces his scientific awakening to childhood in South Africa, where his father's love of puzzles and Scientific American subscriptions sparked an early fascination with problem-solving. A pivotal moment came during medical school when interviewing parents who had lost a child to Tay-Sachs disease. This personal encounter with genetic tragedy would ultimately shape his career trajectory toward understanding how cells handle disease-causing proteins.

The interview reveals how Dr. Rubinsztein became the first UK-trained genetic pathologist, a forward-thinking specialty created in the early 1990s. His mentors at Cambridge, Professor Malcolm Ferguson-Smith and Professor Martin Bobrow, provided crucial support as he transitioned from population genetics to mechanistic studies of Huntington's disease.

Revolutionary Insight Born from Simple Logic

Dr. Rubinsztein recounts the moment that changed neurodegeneration research forever. After reading colleague Dr. Aviva Tolkovsky's work on autophagy in cell death contexts, he experienced what he describes as a logical epiphany. If autophagy could clear large cellular structures like ribosomes and mitochondria, why not the toxic protein aggregate-prone proteins plaguing neurons in diseases like Huntington's, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's?

This simple yet profound question launched investigations that would establish autophagy upregulation as a viable therapeutic strategy. The interview details how his laboratory systematically demonstrated that boosting autophagosome formation could reduce levels of disease-causing proteins and ameliorate their toxic effects in cells, zebrafish, and mice.

Building Scientific Community Through Curiosity

Throughout the conversation, Dr. Rubinsztein emphasizes principles that have guided his laboratory for decades. He maintains his office within the lab to remain accessible for discussions, cultivates a supportive atmosphere where students and postdocs feel excited about coming to work, and conducts weekly 45-minute journal clubs to stay current with developments both within and beyond their immediate research focus.

The interview provides insight into his leadership philosophy, shaped by advice from senior colleagues to focus research efforts rather than becoming diffuse and to identify each trainee's strengths. His pride in former students and postdocs who have succeeded internationally reflects a commitment to nurturing the next generation of scientists that extends beyond individual discoveries.

Personal Passions Fueling Professional Excellence

In a particularly touching segment, Dr. Rubinsztein reveals how classical music provides balance to his scientific pursuits. His admiration for cellists Pablo Casals and Mstislav Rostropovich extends beyond their musical genius to their courage in opposing totalitarian regimes. This connection between artistic expression and humanistic values illuminates the broader perspective he brings to scientific inquiry.

The interview captures Dr. Rubinsztein playing his cello, offering readers a glimpse of the person behind over 400 scientific publications. His reflections on happiness, family, and the privilege of international scientific collaboration paint a portrait of a researcher who views science as fundamentally human endeavor.

Current Frontiers and Future Horizons

Dr. Rubinsztein outlines five major research directions his laboratory currently pursues, from understanding autophagy dysfunction mechanisms to exploring non-autophagic roles of autophagy proteins. His vision extends beyond basic science to therapeutic development that could transform treatment options for neurodegenerative diseases.

When discussing what drives him, Dr. Rubinsztein returns to fundamental curiosity about new results and their implications. This Genomic Press Interview exemplifies the type of transformative scientific discourse found across Genomic Press's portfolio of open-access journals, demonstrating how personal narratives can illuminate scientific breakthroughs while inspiring future researchers.

Dr. David Rubinsztein's Genomic Press interview is part of a larger series called Innovators & Ideas that highlights the people behind today's most influential scientific breakthroughs. Each interview in the series offers a blend of cutting-edge research and personal reflections, providing readers with a comprehensive view of the scientists shaping the future. By combining a focus on professional achievements with personal insights, this interview style invites a richer narrative that both engages and educates readers. This format provides an ideal starting point for profiles that explore the scientist's impact on the field, while also touching on broader human themes. More information on the research leaders and rising stars featured in our Innovators & Ideas -- Genomic Press Interview series can be found in our publications website: https://genomicpress.kglmeridian.com/.

The Genomic Press Interview in Brain Medicine titled "David Rubinsztein: Autophagy and neurodegeneration," is freely available via Open Access on 19 August 2025 in Brain Medicine at the following hyperlink: https://doi.org/10.61373/bm025k.0098.

About Brain Medicine: Brain Medicine (ISSN: 2997-2639, online and 2997-2647, print) is a peer-reviewed medical research journal published by Genomic Press, New York. Brain Medicine is a new home for the cross-disciplinary pathway from innovation in fundamental neuroscience to translational initiatives in brain medicine. The journal's scope includes the underlying science, causes, outcomes, treatments, and societal impact of brain disorders, across all clinical disciplines and their interface.

Visit the Genomic Press Virtual Library: https://issues.genomicpress.com/bookcase/gtvov/

Our full website is at: https://genomicpress.kglmeridian.com/

David Rubinsztein playing his cello, which he describes as his “most treasured possession.” Music is an important part of his life outside the laboratory.

Credit

David Rubinsztein

Journal

Brain Medicine

DOI

10.61373/bm025k.0098 

Method of Research

News article

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

David Rubinsztein: Autophagy and neurodegeneration

Article Publication Date

19-Aug-2025

 

Discrete choice experiment on Australian public preferences for provision of medicinal cannabis

KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.

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A new study published in Pharmacoeconomics and Policy has shed light on how Australians want medicinal cannabis (MC) to be provided. Using a discrete choice experiment with 1,166 adults, the authors examined preferences for access, formulation, tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) content, cost, and medical oversight.

“We found that the public is likely to be more open to medicinal cannabis as a complementary option rather than a last resort,” shares first author Katrina Gething.

The authors also found strong support for MC being prescribed at any stage of treatment when good clinical evidence exists, instead of restricting it to cases where other treatments fail. “Most participants preferred oral formulations, such as liquids or capsules, over inhalation of raw cannabis flowers,” adds Gething. “Lower THC levels were generally favored, although there was flexibility for higher levels in terminal cases.”

In particular, cost was a significant factor, with many respondents advocating for government subsidies to ease financial burdens. “Affordability came through as a critical issue, especially among older participants and women,” notes Gething.

Furthermore, while a majority valued medical supervision in prescribing MC, a substantial subgroup was neutral on this requirement. “Demographics such as age and gender influenced preferences, with older individuals and females more likely to support subsidies and structured access,” says Gething.

Taken together, the findings suggest that current Australian policies, often more restrictive, may not align with public sentiment. The authors recommend adjusting regulations to broaden access, incorporate preferred administration methods, and reduce costs could better meet community needs.

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Contact the author: Katrina Gething, Centre for Applied Health Economics, School of Medicine, Griffith University, Nathan, Australia

The publisher KeAi was established by Elsevier and China Science Publishing & Media Ltd to unfold quality research globally. In 2013, our focus shifted to open access publishing. We now proudly publish more than 200 world-class, open access, English language journals, spanning all scientific disciplines. Many of these are titles we publish in partnership with prestigious societies and academic institutions, such as the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC).

 

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Journal

Pharmacoeconomics and Policy

DOI

10.1016/j.pharp.2025.06.002 

Method of Research

Literature review