After Israel’s attack on a Hamas meeting in Doha, Qatar, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed regret over the incident and directed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to finalize a defense cooperation agreement with Qatar.
When Qatari officials heard that news, they probably wondered, Why bother?
Qatar is a Major Non-NATO Ally of the U.S. and a major customer for American defense equipment. In recent years Doha provided financial support to Hamas (with U.S. and Israeli connivance), mediated U.S.-Taliban peace talks, hosted America’s Afghan refugee resettlement facility; mediated ceasefire talks between Israel and the militant group Hamas; hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, Al Udeid Air Base (upgraded at Qatar’s expense); gifted the U.S. a Boeing 747-8 aircraft as an interim Air Force One, agreed to purchase 210 Boeing aircraft and over 400 GE Aerospace engines, and entered an agreement that will “generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion,” according to the White House.
What did Qatar get for all it did? It got the distinction of being attacked by both Iran and Israel in one year, though Trump helpfully 'assured' Qatar that Israel won't attack again, though he was immediately repudiated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Qataris reportedly received Israeli and American assurances in August that Hamas officials would not be targeted on Qatari soil, but that promise was broken.
Why did the attack happen now?
James M. Dorsey of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore noted, “In the last six weeks, Hamas has largely agreed to proposals put forward by the mediators, Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.” This may have motivated Israel to strike - before it was presented with a deal that would be hard to refuse.
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The Jerusalem Post noted a recent survey: “Nearly two-thirds of the Israeli public are in support of a ceasefire deal that includes Hamas's release of all the hostages in exchange for a full IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, with nearly half of right-leaning Israelis supporting such a deal…” For Netanyahu, peace will bring an uncomfortable, public airing of the security failures that contributed to the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack, and a court date over allegations of personal corruption, so it was critical to stop Hamas from saying “yes” and so keep his far-right coalition intact. Or, as, former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says, “peace represents Israel’s only existential threat,” that is, Israel needs tension in the region to keep the Americans interested.
If the end of Qatar’s mediation condemns the Israeli hostages in Gaza, who may die at the hands of Hamas or Israeli friendly fire, or due to poor diet and lack of medical care, well, that’s a sacrifice Netanyahu is willing to make.
And what did America know and when did it know it?
The White House claimed Trump wasn’t notified in advance by Israel and learned of the attack from the Pentagon, though Israeli sources claim he was notified in advance. Trump ordered his crisis negotiator, Steve Witkoff, to notify Doha, but Witkoff’s call came as the bombs were falling.
To add insult to injury for Doha, reports on X claim United Kingdom (UK) refueling aircraft, based at Al Udeid Air Base refueled the attacking Israeli aircraft. The reports are apparently untrue as the UK and Israel use different aerial refueling systems, but the story is all over social media, and who are you going to believe?
There were reports that the Israelis breached the airspace of several Arab countries to strike Qatar, though The Wall Street Journal reports the Israelis launched the missiles from the Red Sea to avoid violating Saudi airspace and to avoid the complicated refueling process.
It doesn’t matter what the truth is; Washington looks either complicit or impotent. It got to this place by conditioning the world that it will support anything Israel does. Netanyahu is prepared to kill the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and make U.S. security guarantees meaningless, and is counting on his American Zionist collaborators to keep Trump on the right track. That may keep Bibi’s political coalition intact (and him out of jail) and the American weapons flowing but that will likely end American influence in the region for a long time, if it ever recovers.
Trump’s lassitude in the face of Netanyahu’s disrespect and the challenge to America’s influence in the Middle East likely has the conspiracy-minded and not-so-conspiracy-minded thinking that Epstein files must be red hot.
The United Arab Emirates is weighing Qatar’s request that it shutter its embassy in Tel Aviv, and Qatar’s prime minister (who is also foreign minister), Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, said Netanyahu must be brought to justice.” If Qatar goes to the International Criminal Court, what will Washington do? It is eager to sanction any party that challenges Israel at The Hague, but will sanctioning Qatar open the door to China and other competitors to the U.S.?
It's the kind of possibility that makes your head swim if your name is Xi or Putin.
Qatar’s prime minister reportedly told Witkoff: “It seems we need new security partners, we have been attacked twice and you did not defend us,” though Qatar denied it is reevaluating its security partnership with the U.S.
Al-Thani said that Qatar will not cease its efforts at mediation, so Israel may have gone to a lot of effort for nothing. Qatar’s constitution stipulates mediation as a foreign policy priority: “based on the principle of encouraging peaceful resolution of international disputes.”
Al-Thani met Trump on Friday and hopefully the president gained a more sober view of Qatar’s ability to help the U.S. and how Israel sometimes diminishes America’s influence in the region. Washington did vote to approve a United Nations Security Council condemnation of Israel’s attack on Qatar but it did not directly name Israel – as though the missiles just fell from the heavens.
The fact that Trump has refrained from his typical effusive tweeting about Prime Minister Al Thani’s visit may be a sign that he is finally thinking about the real consequences of the attack. If Al Thani’s intervention causes an outbreak of introspection in Washington, D.C. that stays America’s hand before it gets into another ruinous war (the Iraq debacle cost over 4400 American lives and US$2.9 trillion), soldiers’ families and American taxpayers owe him their thanks.
Even if Qatar just more selective in helping the U.S., Qatar’s absence may make it harder for the U.S. to pursue regional diplomacy. America’s utility to Israel rests on its influence with the Arab and Muslim states in West Asia. Absent that influence Israel’s position may be weaker despite the dopamine rush from killing a few Hamas officials.
And if Qatar does seek out new security partners, some candidates are China, Russia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, all of whom will move quickly to dilute U.S. influence, though the Americans are doing a pretty good job of that themselves.
Qatar hosted a Pakistan military delegation days before the attack, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Qatar the day after the attacks to deliver condolences. In the weeks before the attack, Egypt and Turkey notified Hamas it should “tighten security around your meetings." Doha may now seek to increase cooperation with Cairo, Ankara, and Islamabad, who will make the most of it.
In June, the Israeli strike on Iran was to topple the government, but it quickly reconstituted and hit back with hypersonic missiles that defeated the Iron Dome air defense system. Israel was close to running out of interceptor missiles, though this was denied by the Israel Defense Forces, and the U.S. used one-fourth of its stock on THAAD interceptor missiles defending Israel. The Iranian people rallied, strengthening the regime, and now a majority favor possessing nuclear weapons.
The attack on Qatar was to decapitate the Hamas leadership and though several low-ranking Hamas officials (and a Qatari security officer) were killed the leaders are unharmed, but Israel scored a direct hit on America’s credibility as a security guarantor for the region, proving that Israel is tactically brilliant, but strategically inept. And Hamas fundraising efforts will get a boost now that the group can say America has at last shown its hand, and the leaders were spared by God as they were at prayer when the missiles struck.
And Israel’s defense minister has promised to attack “enemies everywhere,” but it is creating headaches everywhere for the U.S. Qatar recently committed to invest US$103 billion on projects in Africa and it can count on most of the continent, which is mostly sympathetic to the Palestinians to back it up when the issue is on the agenda in multilateral groups. Qatar’s move into Africa may now weaken American efforts to compete with China for Africa’s mineral wealth.
And though the region’s governments will be quick to focus the world’s outrage on Israel, they have some questions to answer: how the Israeli air force got from Israel to Qatar without overflying Jordan and Saudi Arabia (the most direct route); and, why did the governments spend all that money on military hardware just to watch the Israelis overfly their countries at will?
For example, the Qatar Emiri Air Force F-15QA Advanced Eagle has been called a “technological marvel,” but it probably has a weak threat library that renders it incapable of shooting at Israeli and American aircraft. Fair enough as far as U.S. aircraft go, but the Gulf countries that have poured their public funds into American pockets may want to publicly address this issue with the Pentagon and Trump.
And the region’s leaders will note that their American friends failed to respond to the attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities in 2019 or on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Al Dhafra Air Base in 2022. American inaction after the Israeli attack will go a long way to convince the people of the region they are an expendable source of cheap energy, and captive customers for U.S. defense contractors. And now Israel has displaced Iran as the destabilizing actor in the region, Tehran can commiserate with its fellow victims of Israeli aggression.
The Israeli attacks on Qatar will deepen Iranian distrust of U.S. diplomacy (if that’s possible) as it was the second time in weeks the Americans encouraged negotiations only for its Israeli ally to attack the negotiators. This will make it difficult for Tehran to seriously engage with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the counterparties in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The Abraham Accord vision of regional integration will still happen but it will move to the East with Iran, instead to the West with Israel, and regional diplomacy may welcome the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Trumps latest enemy, the BRICS group of natural resource countries. The region has the potential to be the center of an economic zone encompassing Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia, and Africa. Aside from the hydrocarbons, the zone will include the Suez Canal and the Strat of Hormuz, Iran’s untapped market of over 90 million people, the advanced logistics infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and the untapped mineral wealth of Afghanistan.
Iran’s Zarif says the choice is between “Greater Israel” and “Our Strong Region,” echoing Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian’s advocacy of a “strong region” in his “My message to the new world.” Iran adopted the “Look East” policy as a pivot to China and Eurasia when it saw no opportunity dealing with the U.S.-allied Arab states to its west, but the attack may cause a “Look West” policy to emerge.
The Gulf states may move closer to Iran which is the only country in the Middle East that went its own way, and it endured isolation and sanctions for its trouble. The Arab petrostates mistakenly thought they were under the American security umbrella, but that parasol had a big hole to accommodate Israeli missiles. This move will foil the long-term American plan to integrate Israel into regional markets, and to isolate and weaken Iran prior to overthrowing the clerical government. The worst part for the Gulf states may be the I told you so from Iran.
And that trillion-dollar payday Trump thinks he bagged depends on Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The attack may raise the risk premium of Qatar’s LNG exports (Qatar is the world’s #3 exporter after the U.S. and Australia so the attack may benefit the Americans.) Also, Russia and China just announced the start of construction of the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline that will eventually send 50 billion cubic meters of gas a year to China.
Starting in January 2025, QatarEnergy will supply 3 million tons per year annually to China under a long-term agreement with Shell. Qatar has signed multiple long-term (27-year) deals with Chinese buyers over the past two years, but China can now rely on a more secure overland pipeline that may put price pressure on Qatar.
Qatar also faces competition from the sanctioned (by the U.S., EU, and UK) Russian Arctic LNG 2 project that has started sending cargoes to China.
Qatar may reassess its three-decade-old economic relations with Israel, centered around Hamad Port, its main seaport.
Hamad Port is new, highly automated and linked to over 100 ports around the world. It can
handle nearly 8M tons of cargo annually, including 7.5M twenty-foot equivalent units (“containers”) , and includes specialized terminals for livestock, grain, vehicles, general cargo, and offshore supply. Qatar may block outright or more closely scrutinize any Israel-linked trade, depriving Israel of access to global supply chains and meaning higher shipping costs and longer transit times.
And the attack on Qatar could pause the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC), which included Haifa Port in Israel. If IMEEC is delayed or rerouted, that could kill Israel’s plans to have a role in regional maritime logistics at a time when Houthi attacks have crippled Eilat, Israel’s Red Sea port.
A bad man once said, “Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. The third time it's enemy action.” Or maybe the second time is enemy action. Iran was attacked when it was preparing for negotiations with Washington about its nuclear program, and Qatar was attacked as Hamas was considering a Trump ceasefire proposal for Gaza. It may seem that the purpose of recent U.S. diplomacy is to get the principals to assemble so they can be more easily killed by Israel.
Arab observers have privately noted that Trump never follows through with anything, i.e., Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine, and they doubt he will do anything about Gaza. Trump’s dithering accommodates Israel’s tendency to be the spoiler. But Tel Aviv’s habit of sabotaging ceasefires has sunk in at the White House as one Trump aide noted, “Every time they’re making progress, it seems like he [Netanyahu] bombs someone.”
But anonymous White House sources saying telling Politico “Trump is frustrated with Netanyahu” means nothing. Trump can limit the damage, but he needs to publicly put some daylight between the U.S. and Israel as increasing numbers of American voters think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, are questioning military support for Tel Aviv, and are increasingly sympathetic to the Palestinians.
A recent Harris poll asked, “In the Israel-Hamas conflict, do you support more Israel or more Hamas?” Sixty percent of American voters aged 18–24 expressed greater support for Hamas, though support for Israel increased in older cohorts. The poll also found “Half of all respondents said they believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.” Accusing people with fifty years of voting ahead of them of being anti-Semitic or terrorist sympathizers is a poor vote-getter so Trump needs to neutralize the issue now - before Israel-Gaza become an issue in the 2026 mid-term election.
The Israeli attack on Qatar also highlights Qatar’s wisdom in delaying jumping into Trump’s Abraham Accord.
To get the Americans to start acting responsibly in their dealing with its Arab friends, it’s time to consider the Greco-Roman practice of mutual exchange of hostages (“sureties”), usually members of the ruling families, in order to secure an agreement, though it’s doubtful Melania will volunteer Barron for the job.
So, what are Qatar’s options?
Doha won’t break with Washington or abandon mediation even though the Americans bear some responsibility for the Israeli attack, but it can:
- Open that commercial aircraft and engine deal to offers from Airbus and European engine makers;
- Consider joining SCO and BRICS;
- Release the records of the arrangement to financially support Hamas, and the U.S. and Israeli roles (and participants);
- Don’t rollover its U.S. Treasury bill holdings, then buy gold;
- Find other security partners, such as China, Russia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, to supplement the failed American effort;
- Review the U.S.-Qatar Strategic Partnership;
- Review the U.S. presence at Al Udeid Air Base; and,
- Use its leverage in energy markets and regional logistics.
What is left for Trump? The Abraham Accords are dead in the water, there will be no Middle East peace deal during his presidency, he will never get the Nobel Peace Prize, and Barack Obama is having the last laugh. But that’s what happens when you fail to put America first.
By James Durso for Oilprice.com
