Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Faux Messianism and the Twilight of the West


Civil war isn’t looming — it’s already live-streaming, orchestrated by oligarchs who feed rage while dismantling sovereignty.



For years, independent geopolitical observers, including myself, have warned that the West is veering toward civil war or, at minimum, a prolonged paralysis of governance. This conviction has underpinned my decade-long advocacy for a “Greater Eurasian” autarky, based on the premise that a destabilized West poses the biggest threat to humanity in the near future. Even Donald J. Trump’s tariff mania reflects this reality. It is the desperate last card of a fading empire, signaling that “if we are going down, we’re taking the whole planet with us.”

The root causes of the West’s looming disintegration are too numerous to be enumerated but they include oligarchic funding of far-left and far-right movements, unchecked immigration, erosion of national identities, runaway inflation, deepening poverty, collapsing infrastructure, and engineered corrosion of traditional institutions. This spectacle grows more surreal as the same Western governments are willing to pour hundreds of billions into foreign wars from Ukraine to Israel while turning a blind eye to the critical welfare needs of their own citizens.

Strip away the noise and two primary drivers appear in this drama. First, runaway wealth concentration, where a microscopic oligarchy effectively owns nations as designated proxies of their respective deep states. Second, the obliteration of the political middle ground, leaving no space for rational debate or nuanced critique of the hypocrisies plaguing both left and right.

This Hegelian theme was crystallized by former U.S. President George W. Bush in the wake of the still-contentious September 11, 2001 attacks: “You’re either with us, or you’re with the terrorists.” Since then, the formula has metastasized into “you’re either with the patriots or with the globalists; you’re either with Israel or you’re an anti-Semite” — ad nauseam.

While the two primary drivers explain the root causes of the West’s terminal decline, two cinematic metaphors vividly foreshadow its future, namely The Purge and The Hunger Games.

For the uninitiated, The Purge depicts a near-future America marked annually by a 12-hour orgy of lawlessness where murder is legalized. Marketed as a cathartic “pressure valve,” it is nothing but social Darwinism in its purest form — an elite-orchestrated culling of the poor and marginalized to preserve control and inequality.

The Hunger Games thrusts us into Panem, which literally means “bread” in Latin. Here, a post-apocalyptic dystopia is fractured into twelve subjugated districts ruled by the opulent Capitol. Submission is enforced through annual televised death matches where child tributes are forced to kill or be killed, a spectacle that is equal parts entertainment and grotesque ritual of dominance over starving masses. The imagery is unmistakably reminiscent of ancient Rome’s social control strategy of bread and circuses (panem et circenses) as well as the shedding of blood. Christians being thrown to lions before roaring crowds in the Coliseum is the epitome of this stratagem.

Today, the formula endures in subtler forms via mass mediated spectacles, endless political tirades and the relentless quest for new bogeymen. The herd needs to be kept at “peak rage” while their overlords plot their demise.

Combustible Ironies

The West has been smouldering for years, but the recent deaths of American podcaster Charlie Kirk and Ukrainian immigrant Iryna Zarutska — alongside a wave of far-right rallies from the United States to the United Kingdom to Australia — have thrown fresh accelerants onto an already raging fire.

In London, 110,000 flag-waving zealots chanted “Unite the Kingdom” as they torched effigies and brawled with police when they were not feasting on onion bhajis and samosas hawked by South Asian immigrants. The ghost of Kirk turbocharged this crowd who canonized him like a fallen messiah. U.S. Congressman Troy Nehls even declared that if Kirk had “lived in Biblical times, he’d have been the 13th disciple.” Yes, and I suspect that if that were the case, Judas would have never betrayed his Lord as the 13th member would have performed the deed.

Another catalyst in this religion-tinged drama was Zarutska, who was knifed to death on a North Carolina train, with her American Dream bleeding out thanks to a random, hate-motivated assault.

For some perspective, consider these inconvenient questions: Wouldn’t Zarutska be safer in Moscow or Nizhny Novgorod? Since the protracted conflict began in 2022, how many Ukrainians have been knifed to death on Russian soil compared to the supposed sanctuary of the West?

With Kirk’s death hoisted as a lightning rod at uber-patriotic rallies, one thing is certain — civil war may not be merely looming; it is already being live-streamed on X. Adding fuel to the fire, Elon Musk himself fanned Britain’s right-wing fury with a blunt warning: “Whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you. You either fight back or you die, that’s the truth, I think.”

That is right. Let’s take law and order into our own hands to settle grievances, just as Charlie Kirk’s alleged assassin did!

Make no mistake: it is not the pitchfork peasants who are driving this farce, but oligarchs pulling strings from their tax-haven bunkers. Can anyone seriously imagine Musk leading a personal charge against left-wing radicals in the streets of London or Sydney? What commonality does Musk share with the street rabble? This guy has rubbed shoulders with far-left politicians and oligarchs at technocratic assemblies such as the World Economic Forum. And now, he is their Christ-first messiah?

I wonder if the governments of the United Kingdom, the European Union, or Australia would charge Musk for inciting violence. I seriously doubt it. They will posture, perhaps wag a finger, but they will not act as these same governments are dependent on the very platforms, capital flows, and technologies that men like Musk control. To challenge him is to risk severing their lifelines.

Coronapsychosis Reality Check

The herd, as I have noted in a recent interview, is senseless, gullible and hopelessly amnesiac. They have always worshipped hierarchy and will follow any leader who can peddle dangerous  delusions. The outrage manifested across the Western world today is routinely calibrated like a pressure valve.

Just where were these self-proclaimed patriots and “Christian Nationalists” when Western security forces were punching, pummeling, and arresting ordinary citizens who dared oppose senseless lockdowns and mandates during the pandemic? Remember the time when even a Facebook post or “like” — contrary to the Ministry of Truth’s narrative on the pandemic — landed you in handcuffs? Even pregnant women with little children were not spared.

Where were they when churches were padlocked under the virus mania? Who coerced a hesitant populace into taking experimental mRNA vaccines? How many have died prematurely since taking the shots? And who continues to bury the data on side effects to this very day? If there was ever a cause worth rallying for, this is it. As someone who has suffered from a past vaccine injury, I would far rather see answers to these questions than salacious exposes over Brigitte Macron’s alleged gender.

But that’s what the multi-millionaire berserkers on the left and right are paid to do: to distract you from asking questions like these. And what have they really achieved? The Jeffrey Epstein files are now reduced to a nothingburger, with both left and right blaming each other for concocting them.

The “coronapsychosis” therefore was not an aberration but a rehearsal. The lockdowns, the mandates, the mediated fear porn were all meant to test how far the sheeple could be controlled, divided, and pacified under a fog of crisis. What follows now is merely the sequel, a post-pandemic purge within nations.

Rage is only permitted when it serves power. When truckers occupied Ottawa, they were smeared as terrorists. When parents questioned school closures or Drag Queen story hours, they were branded extremists. Yet now, like starved hogs suddenly released from their pens, the “patriots” are free to unleash their fury — so long as it is aimed at the bogeymen of the day, handpicked and curated by their masters.

‘Christ is King’?

As for those feverishly chanting “Christ is King” while waving Israeli flags, I would question their knowledge of the Bible. The flag itself features the so-called Star of David — a hexagram composed of six points, six triangles, and six sides within its inner structure. I hardly need to remind the reader what three sixes signify in Christian tradition. And when it comes to nationalism, what did Christ Himself say to the representative of the empire in His day? Simply this: “My kingdom is not of this world” (John 18:36).

I doubt the emotionally-charged “Christ is King” herd could even identify a Bible, let alone find that verse. And if they did, they might be startled to realize that the very flag they idolize would, for other theological reasons, be an anathema to the faith they so casually invoke. They should also research who is weaponizing Muslim immigrants as the “broom of the West.”

These mobs need to pick a lane. Either they call for a return to traditional national values and identity — a perfectly legitimate aspiration — or they should renounce their citizenship and openly fight for the Zionist cause. But when they howl about split immigrant loyalties while simultaneously pledging allegiance to a foreign power, it smacks of clinical schizophrenia.

Dark Days Ahead

The nationalist rage erupting across the West is not hypocrisy born out of desperation; it is a deliberate top-down strategy.

Manufactured chaos is the last resort of a civilization in decline. By stoking fury against immigrants, minorities, and phantom enemies, elites divert scrutiny from themselves. Every rally, every clash, and every viral slogan functions as a pressure valve, ensuring the masses expend their fury on each other rather than uniting against their taskmasters.

But what happens when the riots spiral beyond control? Martial law is one obvious outcome, but it cannot endure without new scapegoats. That is why a steady diet of demonized villains — Russia, China, Iran and to some extent, India — must be sustained through a carousel of manufactured crises and false-flag spectacles.

For the BRICS nations, the warning is clear. They must insulate themselves from the West’s unraveling by fortifying supply chains, diversifying trade grids, and cultivating self-sufficiency. Continuity in the face of chaos will be their greatest weapon in the dark days ahead.

Dr Mathew Maavak is a regular commentator on risk-related geostrategic issues. Read other articles by Mathew.



Charlie Kirk Becomes Alive



On Wednesday, September 10, a shot was fired at a Utah college event, and Charlie Kirk became alive. Relatively unknown to the public outside of the Right Wing fringe that gains shekels and adoration from the misinformed, miscalculating, and mistaken cadre of misplaced Americans, Charlie Kirk became a household name; more than that, Charlie Kirk achieved immortality. Flags at half-mast, Medal of Freedom, statues planned, all for a young man who used the principles of establishing megachurches and planting their orators and turned college campuses into megacampuses, with him as the orator.

Don’t intend to demean his life and ridicule his death. I perceived Charlie Kirk to be a charlatan, who twisted facts and reality to pursue an agenda that suited his pocket, who deserved condemnation, and maybe a few years in purgatory, but did not deserve a fatal bullet that silenced his rhetoric and amplified his message. His family members merit regrets for the act and sympathies for their loss.

Objectives that Charlie Kirk’s divisive rhetoric intended to achieve in life — cancel the Woke and disable the Left — have found their yellow brick road, and the Trump administration is set to stroll down that road, with the help of the jingoist and sanguine media. All reports I have read categorize the killing as a political act and predict “tit for tat” killings leading to a possible civil war. Trump’s initial response urges that to happen. To the question, “How do we fix this country? How do we come back together?” the US president replied, “I tell you something that is going to get me in trouble, but I couldn’t care less. The radicals on the right are radical because they don’t want to see crime … The radicals on the left are the problem – and they are vicious and horrible and politically savvy. They want men in women’s sports, they want transgender for everyone, they want open borders. The worst thing that happened to this country.”

At this September 15 writing, I find no evidence that the alleged assassin, Tyler Robinson, had any political motivation in the killing. Recitations of “the frightening rise in political violence in the United States,” (what is new in violent America?) hides and distracts from the frightening rise in dangerous and hysterical political discourse. Motivation in the killing of Charlie Kirk leans to a personal grudge in a personal situation — Kirk had disturbed Robinson, who had an intimate relationship with another male who was trans gendering to female. An extreme reaction, but disturb the disturbed and the outcome is often extremely disturbing — murdering the lawyer in a divorce case, murdering a judge after harm by a verdict, murdering a swindler who caused grief to others. Motivation in this case has not been defined, so why eagerly insinuate a political motive that is certain to cause havoc and arouse the public? Why not be calm and favor a motive that is more plausible, prevents havoc, and calms the public?

Not one voice for peace and order; megaphones for violence and disorder; the way of those who lead our society. If Harry Truman and his Democratic Party had not approved United Nations Resolution 181 for political reasons, there would be no Israel and no genocide of the Palestinian people; if the leaders of the Democratic Party had nominated sure winner, Joe Biden, instead of friend and sure loser, Hillary Clinton, there would no Donald Trump in the presidency; if the Democratic Party had not soothed Joe Biden’s feelings and realized their commitment to the American public by allowing more reliable candidates to enter the race at an earlier date, there would have been no return of Donald Trump and changing of the presidency to ruling autocracy. These small thoughts of personal gain engineered huge losses for the world.

Keeping Charlie Kirk alive advances ignorance and violence in the 50 states. The idolized man pedaled half-truths, clichés, and simplified arguments to a simplified audience who could not engage in an erudite dialogue and espoused clichés. He found a niche with college Republicans who were clipped by more outspoken students. To his credit as a political organizer, he gathered Republican college students into a more meaningful political force and accomplished much for the Republican Party, but successful political organizers do not warrant the accolades he is receiving and the future monuments that are being designated for him, especially when the efforts have been self-serving.

Kirk was not proceeding well until “he and others adopted a more edgy and confrontational style of engagement, [and] people started paying attention, including deep-pocketed donors and political strategists.” Kirk learned that deceit and Faustian bargains are a route to successful politics and living a comfortable life. The Trump administration has greatly lowered the bar on what is determined to be greatness.

Jesus Christ’s described life was similar to most apocalyptic preachers. Death and resurrection gave him fame. So it is with Charlie Kirk, but doubtful that it will be as long lasting. In with a blast and out with a whimper. One advice to his family ─ if they want him to be properly remembered, they will inform the Israeli authorities not to proceed with canonizing him by having a street named for him in the city of Netanya, a mural painted in Ashdod, and a missile inscribed “In memory of Charlie Kirk.” Identifying him with the genocidal Israelis will change his remembrance from the sweet “accomplishments in the political firmament, “ to an aggravating “enemy of mankind.”

Dan Lieberman publishes commentaries on foreign policy, economics, and politics at substack.com.  He is author of the non-fiction books A Third Party Can Succeed in AmericaNot until They Were GoneThink Tanks of DCThe Artistry of a Dog, and a novel: The Victory (under a pen name, David L. McWellan). Read other articles by Dan.

Kirkwashing: Right Sanitizing Charlie Kirk’s Legacy


Kirkwashing: Right Sanitizing Charlie Kirk’s Legacy


FILE - President Donald Trump shakes hands with moderator Charlie Kirk, during a Generation Next White House forum at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House complex in Washington, Thursday, March 22, 2018. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)

In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s murder, right-wing politicians, Christian evangelical leaders, podcasters, and conservative media outlets are casting him as a martyr for free speech, for truth, and for Christian values. President Donald Trump called Kirk “a martyr for truth and freedom,” praising him as someone who “fought for liberty, democracy, justice and the American people.” Turning Point USA, the organization Kirk founded, called him “America’s greatest martyr to the freedom of speech he so adored.”

At a prayer vigil that drew hundreds to the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., on Sunday night,

House Speaker Mike Johnson told the crowd that Kirk’s “movement was a ministry,” rooted in the belief that “our rights do not derive from the state or a king. They come from the King of Kings.”

As The Forward’s Benyamin Cohen reported, “The vigil, which drew Republicans, Trump administration officials and Kirk’s loyal followers, crystallized the narrative that has come to dominate the conservative universe in the days since his assassination: that he was more than a political activist — he was a martyr in an existential struggle between good and evil.”

But no matter how the right spins it, Charlie Kirk was no Martin Luther King, Jr., no Medgar Evers, no Malcolm X. Far from embodying the principles of those leaders. and despite his tragic death, there is no way to hide his record of homophobia, anti-feminism, anti-immigration, anti-abortion, and hostility toward civil rights. He dismissed the separation of church and state, as “a fabrication.” He stood firmly with the gun lobby with his inviolate pro-gun views.

In the rush to canonize Kirk, one should not forget that Kirk embodied division and scapegoating.

At Alfred Street Baptist Church in Alexandria, Virginia, the Rev. Howard-John Wesley countered the right-wing’s narrative, delivering a searing and emotional critique of efforts to sanitize Kirk’s legacy.

“Charlie Kirk did not deserve to be assassinated,” Wesley said. “But I’m overwhelmed seeing the flags of the United States of America at half-staff, calling this nation to honor and venerate a man who was an unapologetic racist and spent all of his life sowing seeds of division and hate into this land.”

Kirk regularly disparaged the Civil Rights Act,  the landmark 1964 legislation outlawing discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex and national origin. Speaking at AmericaFest in December 2023, Kirk called Martin Luther King Jr. “not a good person” and “awful.”

At the same event, Kirk said “we made a huge mistake when we passed the Civil Rights Act in the 1960s,” and “passage … created a ‘permanent DEI-type bureaucracy.’”

He often criticized affirmative action and made inflammatory comments about Black people and other racial minorities, including saying “In urban America, prowling Blacks go around for fun to go target White people” on his podcast in 2023.

Wesley criticized people with “selective rage” who condemned Kirk’s killing but not the killing of Minnesota state Sen. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Democrats who were shot dead in their home in June, as well as those who “tell me I oughta have compassion for the death of a man who had no respect for my own life.”

“You do not become a hero in your death when you are a weapon of the enemy in your life,” Wesley said to raucous applause.

And that is the deeper truth obscured by the calls of martyrdom: Kirk’s death, while tragic, cannot cleanse his legacy of division, nor should it be used as a rallying cry to sanctify a politics of hate.

Bill Berkowitz is a longtime observer of the conservative movement. Read other articles by Bill.

Charlie Kirk


I knew almost nothing about Charlie Kirk when he was killed on September 10, other than that he was a leading organizer and thought leader for MAGA. One of the first things I saw in my email inbox about him after that misguided, violent act that took his life referenced the fact that he publicly supported dialogue between the Left and the Right. Here’s that quote, prominent on his website: “We heal our divides by talking to people we disagree with… You heal the country when you allow disagreement.”

I agree with these words. To what extent he acted upon these words I do not know.

I do know that he was a huge Trump backer and enabler, and Trump is all about division and hate. I wonder if Kirk ever said a word of criticism about this fact about the man he helped elect President and whose policies he advocated for until he died.

USA Today came out with an article after he died summarizing what can only be called his racist, sexist, homophobic views.

It remains to be seen how many Trump/MAGA supporters follow what Kirk said about healing the country through allowing disagreement and talking to those we disagree with. The Republican Governor of Utah, where the killing took place, seems to have done so, to his credit.

For those of us on the political Left, the Kirk murder and Trump’s efforts to use it to ratchet up attacks on us, using a very broad, hysterical brush, should be just the latest lesson about the importance of nonviolent tactics as we continue to strengthen our resistance movement.

It appears as if Trump’s alleged killer was not a Leftist. His family appears to be very Republican and pro-Trump. Perhaps as he went out on his own he was exposed to ideas and facts he had not known about before, but unfortunately he doesn’t seem to have been exposed to the importance of nonviolence and dialogue in efforts to oppose what is seen as wrong.

I’m not a pacifist. I support people defending themselves, their family and their community as necessary against violence of any kind. But acts like those alleged to have been taken by Tyler Robinson are not self-defense; they are self-defeating and destructive.

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. pointed the way forward, with active and militant, mass nonviolence at the center of that way. In his famous “Beyond Vietnam” speech at Riverside Church in NYC in April, 1967, he said this: “We as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values. We must rapidly begin the shift from a ‘thing-oriented’ society to a ‘person-oriented’ society. When machines and computers, profit motives and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered.”

Charlie Kirk did not like King. He said the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was a mistake. About King he reportedly said, “MLK was awful. He was not a good person.” I wish Kirk was still alive so that, perhaps, someday, through dialogue with people who disagreed with him, he would have changed his mind.

Ted Glick has been a progressive activist and organizer since 1968. He is the author of the recently published books, Burglar for Peace and 21st Century Revolution, both available at https://pmpress.org. Read other articles by Ted, or visit Ted's website.

 

The “Fat Boy Posse’s” Impending Attack on Iran




Mesopotamia. Babylon. The Tigris and Euphrates. How many children in how many classrooms, over how many centuries, have been hang-glided through the past, transported on the wings of these words?

And now the bombs are falling, incinerating and humiliating that ancient civilisation.

On the steel torsos of their missiles, adolescent American soldiers scrawl colourful messages in childish handwriting: ‘For Saddam from the Fat Boy Posse’. A building goes down. A marketplace. A home. A girl who loves a boy. A child who only ever wanted to play with his older brother’s marbles (Arundhati Roy, 2004, p. 81).

Arundhati Roy’s heartrending lament of course refers to the 2003 invasion and destruction of Iraq by the US and its Coalition of the Willing (the US, the UK, Australia, and Poland – a gang otherwise known as the ‘bullied and the bought’). An invasion and occupation that by some estimates have caused the deaths of up to 2.4 million Iraqis, a figure that does not include more than half a million children who died as a result of 13 years of harsh economic sanctions leading up to the invasion.  

But Roy’s words could be applied equally to many other countries that have been subjected to ‘the broad-spectrum antibiotic of [US] “democratic reform”’, and they will be just as relevant to those countries – like Iran – for whom such treatment lies in store.

Since 2003, more or less the same Fat Boy Posse (plus Israel) has been doing pretty much the same things in places like Afghanistan, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Somalia, South Sudan, and Syria. Countries that have been cast by the US and its allies (also known as ‘the international community’) as ‘peripheral countries that are either ‘state sponsors of terror’ (never mind that the US is the reigning world champion) and/or countries whose ‘governments are not in control of all of their territory’ and clearly are therefore in need of ‘stabilising’ with US ‘help’.

So where will the Fat Boy Posse and friends strike next?

The notable regional omission from the list of countries that have been ‘stabilised’, ‘democratised’ and saved from themselves by the US et al. is the ancient (ten-thousand-year-old) civilisation of Iran. It is the final and, arguably, the most important remaining target.

A full-blown attack on Iran has been in the making for at least the last half century. It gathered pace with the identification of Iran as a prime target by the US in its pursuit of the Israeli 1996 ‘clean break strategy’ to remake the Middle East.

Now – before Iran becomes too difficult to subdue and disintegrate – there is a sense of urgency in Israel and the US to complete the unfinished business begun with the 12-day war of June 2025. With the support of the West, whose elites have always sought control over the natural resources of the Middle East, Israeli and US bombs and missiles with similar inscriptions to those dropped on Iraq will soon be raining down on Iran.

Except – unlike Iraq, Palestine and the other countries on the list – militarily Iran will be a much more resolute, well-armed and fearsome opponent. In a war with Iran, there will be many missiles flying in the opposite direction. Missiles whose steel torsos will bear inscriptions like, ‘For Donald and Benjamin from the Persian Immortals and Aswaran’.

Drawing on Noam Chomsky and other recent analyses of the issues involved, in this essay, first, we will explain why war with Iran is almost inevitable in the short term. We shall do so by setting out the main factors that – historically – have determined the positions of the opposing sides towards each other and, in the process, expose the specious arguments or pretexts used by Israel and the US to justify their aggression.

Second, we shall discuss briefly the necessary conditions for a just peace in the Middle East and say why we think its prospects are so poor.

Third, we shall argue that the impending war is likely to be more devastating and costly in terms of lives lost than any other war fought in the Middle East, a war that will have significant regional and global ramifications and, according to Jeffrey Sachs, will be unwinnable.

And fourth, on the basis of our discussion, we shall apportion responsibility for the imminent renewal of conflict among the three main combatants – the US, Israel, and Iran.

The Israeli-US Position

The ‘threat’ allegedly posed to US and Western interests and ‘security’ by a recalcitrant Iran has always been a function of its geostrategic importance in the Middle East, which has a number of important dimensions, some quite recently developed, and some of which have global ramifications.

Iran’s Natural Resource Wealth. Iran has the second largest economy in the Middle East, which is dependent on its significant deposits of oil (with an estimated value of $10 trillion) and gas (about 18% of the world total) and, to a lesser extent, substantial reserves of coalcopperiron orelead, and zinc, along with uranium and gold. Overall, in terms of natural resources, Iran claims to be the fifth richest country in the world.

This is the historical bedrock of Western (capitalist) interest in the balkanisation of Iran. US control of the region would give it ‘a degree of lever­age over both rivals and allies prob­a­bly unpar­al­leled in the his­to­ry of empire… It is dif­fi­cult to over­state the role of the Gulf in the way the world is cur­rent­ly run’ (Stevenson quoted in Chomsky, 2019)

Needless to say, these qualities will not have gone unnoticed by a ‘property development’- minded US president.

Threat to the disruption of shipping in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran’s long southern sea border with the Persian Gulf enables it to disrupt shipping, particularly in the very narrow Straits of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of global oil consumption and a high percentage of global gas consumption passes through the straits.

Iran’s improving relations with China and Russia. In addition to the above, the importance to the US of regime change in Iran has increased significantly as Iran’s economic and military ties with Russia, China and North Korea have improved.

Examples include the recently opened Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) rail link from China to Tehran via Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, which has greatly expanded trade between the two countries. Another rail link is planned that would traverse northern Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, also as a part of the BRI.

China is now Iran’s largest trading partner and imports a significant proportion (some estimates indicate as much as 90%) of Iran’s oil output or about 11 million barrels per day or 15% of China’s oil imports.

Clearly, the harm that regime change in Iran could do to China will be of considerable appeal to the current US administration and its allies.

According to Michael Hudson, another threat to US interests arises from the warming relations between Iran and Russia, which portend the possibility of a Russian route to the Persian Gulf, via the Caspian Sea and Iran, which would enable Russia to bypass the Suez Canal.

A sovereign Iran also gets in the way of the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced by the US in 2023 as a counter to the BRI.

Contribution to de-dollarisation. In conjunction with the rapid development of BRICS, the possibility – suggested by Yanis Varoufakis – that China might establish a new Bretton Woods, and the political frailty of some of the family controlled Arab states, these developments threaten to accelerate the de-dollarisation of the world economy. The reliance of world economies on the US dollar underpins US global hegemony.

An impediment to a Greater IsraelThe notion of a Greater Israel – one that expands its borders to include Gaza, the West Bank, and parts of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and even Egypt and Saudi Arabia – is a paramount and long-held Zionist objective and a stated ambition of Netanyahu’s right-wing government.

Iran’s geographical presence, which bestrides the Middle East, and its support of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis – the so-called Axis of Resistance to US/Israeli dominance of the region – is an impediment to this.

In order for Israel to achieve its Greater Israel aims, regime change in Iran is a necessary and sufficient condition.

Defiance and a threat to ‘world peace’. Like Cuba and Venezuela and other recalcitrants, since the election of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the Islamic revolution of 1979, Iran’s mortal sin has been to refuse to do as the US and Israel and the West generally dictate, which is taken and depicted as a threat to the US-imposed global order, otherwise known as ‘world peace’. Chomsky (2013) explains it in the following terms:

We’re back to the Mafia principle. In 1979, Iranians carried out an illegitimate act: They overthrew a tyrant that the United States had imposed and supported, and moved on an independent path, not following U.S. orders.

And, most dangerous of all, ‘Suc­cess­ful defi­ance can inspire oth­ers to pur­sue the same course. The ​“virus” can ​“spread con­ta­gion,” as Kissinger put it when labouring to over­throw Sal­vador Allende in Chile’ (Chomsky, 2019). Without absolute fealty to the Godfather, the whole system of domination will crumble. Miscreants must therefore be taught to behave.

Moreover, the significance of disobedience to the US rises exponentially when it is tied to the possibility of nuclear deterrence, as Chomsky (2019) avers: ‘For those who wish to ram­page freely in the region, a deter­rent is an intol­er­a­ble threat — even worse than ​“suc­cess­ful defiance”.’

The threat of nuclear weaponsIsrael has long held that Iran intends to develop nuclear weapons, which would clearly constitute a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This assertion (unsullied by evidence to support it) has been at the centre of Israel’s long-standing pretext for its aggressiveness towards Iran, justified on the basis of self-defence and presented as the West’s first line of resistance against the threat that a nuclear armed Iran would pose to the rest of the world.

The latter view was expressed explicitly by Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, on 20 June 2025 before the UN Security Council when he said that Israel was doing the “dirty work… for all of us”, and was protecting “civilisation” from “jihadist [Iranian] genocidal imperialism”, which wants to redesign the global order.

No matter that, with US backing, Israel, Pakistan, and India all posses nuclear weapons and are not signatories to the NPT.

Historical antagonism towards Iran. The last seventy-five years of enmity between Iran and the US and its allies began with the coup instigated by the UK with US support in 1953, which reinstalled Pahlavi as Shah. According to Chomsky (2013), since that time, ‘not a day has passed in which the US has not been torturing Iranians.’

Its continuation to the present day has been marked by ‘cyberwar and sabotage …, numerous assassinations of Iranian scientists, constant threats of use of force (“all options are open”) in violation of international law (and if anyone were to care, the U.S. Constitution) (Chomsky, 2022)’, as the following critical incidents demonstrate:

  • First, the Islamic revolution of 1979, which overthrew the despotic US puppet regime of the Shah.
  • Second, the severance of diplomatic relations by the US in 1980 after Iranian students – who were protesting the admission to the US of the Shah for cancer treatment – broke into the US embassy and held 52 US citizens hostage for 444 days. Economic sanctions were also imposed on Iran.
  • Third, the provision by the US of support to Saddam Hussein in the Iraq-Iran war, which began in September 1980 and lasted for 8 years and resulted in the deaths of up to 750,000 Iranian military personnel and civilians, many of them killed by chemical weapons.
  • Fourth, the designation of Iran as a ‘state sponsor of terror’ by President Ronald Reagan in 1984. This followed an attack on a US military base in Beirut that killed 241 US military personnel. The attack was attributed to Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia organisation backed by Iran.
  • Fifth, in July 1988, the shooting down of Iran Air flight IR655 by a US warship in the Persian Gulf, which resulted in the deaths of all 290 passengers and crew. Although it paid compensation to the families of those killed, the US never admitted responsibility or apologised. After the tragedy, the arrogance of the US and its disdain of Iran were typified by President George Bush’s infamous exclamation ‘I’ll never apologize for the United States of America. Ever. I don’t care what the facts are.’
  • Sixth, in 1995, the imposition of more sanctions on Iran by President Bill Clinton – which persist to this day – and have caused enormous suffering in Iran. At about the same time, in order to foment insurrection and bring about regime change, the US dramatically increased its funding of exiled Iranian monarchists and opposition groups within the country.
  • Seventh, in 2002, in the aftermath of 9/11, the designation of Iran as a member of the ‘Axis of Evil’ (with Iraq and North Korea) by President George Bush.
  • Eighth, in 2018, President Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was designed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities (including a cap of 3.67% on nuclear enrichment) in exchange for an easing of sanctions.
  • Ninth, in Baghdad in 2020, in a drone strike, the assassination by the US of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
  • Tenth, in March 2025, the initiation by the US of fake negotiations for a new nuclear deal as cover for an attack on Iran by Israel and the US on 13 June 2025, which marked the beginning of the 12-day war.

US/Israeli Orientalism and Islamophobia. Orientalists believe in the intrinsic superiority of the peoples of the West (Europe, the US and the Anglo settler societies) and Western civilisation over the peoples and civilisations of the Orient (the Middle East, North Africa, and South and Southeast Asia) or the “other.”

As we have noted elsewhere:

‘The brutal and, all too frequently, genocidal consequences of Orientalism have a gory track record that is well known, but its manifestations today are more flagrant, more brazen, and more recorded than ever. The Western-perpetrated or sponsored atrocities of the 21st century, many of which are US- and Israeli-made, all bear its hallmarks.

Carried to the extreme, Orientalism casts the “other” as sub-human, or vermin that are treated with revulsion and can be exterminated or deracinated without compunction, as was the practice in the colonies, in apartheid South Africa, in settler societies such as the US, Canada, and Australia, and as is happening now in Palestine. It amounts to institutionalised racism of the most pernicious kind that is both latent and manifest.’

It is certain that a new war with Iran will be fuelled partly by the Orientalism and Islamophobia that are deeply ingrained in the governments of both the US and Israel, and which will include beliefs about the general inferiority and unworthiness of the ‘raghead’ opposition, their corruption and cowardliness, and US and Israeli superiority, exceptionalism and divine right.

In this view, Muslim deaths can be discounted because they are terrorists and religious fanatics or because, if they are not, they carry the seeds of terrorism and religious fanaticism within them and are therefore richly deserving of their fates.

The vitriolic responses of right-wing extremists in the US to the assassination of Charlie Kirk in September 2025 – such as Steve Bannon who said ‘Charlie Kirk is a casualty of war. We are at war in this country’ and Eon Musk: ‘If they won’t leave us in peace, then our choice is to fight or die’ – are representative of the views of a president and government who they helped elect.

According to Chris Hedges, ‘Kirk was a poster child for our [US] emergent Christian Fascism’. And, like all fascists, Kirk was Islamophobic, tweeting ‘Islam is the sword the left is using to slit the throat of America,’ and that it is ‘not compatible with western civilization.’

Presidential idiosyncrasies. Our recent parody of President Trump’s international ‘property development’ ambitions notwithstanding, it is necessary to qualify any attempt to apply the constraints of rational argument to US foreign policy by saying that the president’s psychological condition makes the ideas of ‘logic’ and ‘rationality’ anathema.

We are not alone in thinking this. Commenting on Trump’s first term in office, Chomsky (2019) observed: “It is a mis­take to seek some grand geopo­lit­i­cal think­ing behind Trump’s per­for­mances. These are read­i­ly explained as the actions of a nar­cis­sis­tic mega­lo­ma­ni­ac whose doc­trine is to main­tain per­son­al pow­er, and who has the polit­i­cal savvy to sat­is­fy his con­stituen­cies, pri­mar­i­ly cor­po­rate pow­er and pri­vate wealth but also the vot­ing base.” Most would agree that the bizarreness and unpredictability of his behaviour have discovered new heights in his second term in office.

Sachs (2020) also regards Trump as being ‘emotionally unbalanced’ and ‘psychologically disordered’.

Even though in the cases of Iran and Palestine, the presidents’ whims are subject to gale-force headwinds from the irrepressible and irresistible Israel lobby in the US, and to some extent they will be channelled by Western elites led by his self-appointed pack of oligarchs, it is difficult to imagine any significant US military action against Iran not being subject to his flights of fancy.

In the conclusion to this essay, we shall return to the complex question of presidential caprice and the extent to which it might be influenced by the factors that we discuss below. And we shall consider where the exercise of such caprice is likely to be at its greatest.

Iran’s Position

Historical continuity and resilience. Throughout history, for those with imperial ambitions in the Middle East, Iran/Persia has been a much sought after prize and, for would be conquerors, an implacable and formidable opponent.

These qualities are exemplified in the ancient Iranian battle formation known as the Persian Immortals, which were 10,000 strong and were so named because their number seemed never to be depleted during battle, as dead and wounded were replaced immediately.

The same incandescent bravery was displayed in the war with Iraq where ‘human wave assaults’ were often made by units of young volunteers.

Despite being conquered by the Greeks under Alexander the Great, and others like the Mongols under Genghis Khan, Persian civilisation and cultural identity have shown remarkable strength and durability and have been an important unifying force and source of pride for its people to the present day.

National sovereignty. Since the overthrow of the US puppet regime of the Shah in 1979, quite reasonably, Iran has insisted on being the master of its own affairs, free from the bullying of the Godfather in Washington and his enforcer in the Middle East, Israel.

Regional religious solidarity. Iran’s backing of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and the Houthis in Yemen can be interpreted as aid to the defence of the sovereignty of fellow (Shia, except Hamas) Muslims against the aggression of a US-supported Israel, that is, a legitimate version of the politically contrived ‘self-defence’ employed by Israel as an excuse for its aggression and endorsed by its Western supporters.

Defensive posture and deterrence. Iran’s position vis-à-vis Israel and the US has been abundantly clear for at least the last 25 years.

Fifteen years ago Chomsky (2011, p. 197) declared that, despite the ‘fevered rhetoric’ about nuclear weapons, ‘rational souls understand that the Iran threat is not one of attack – which would be suicidal.’

Chomsky quotes a senior US intelligence official as estimating (in 2008) that the chances of the Iranian leadership making a nuclear strike (a ‘quixotic attack’) on Israel was in the region of 1%. First, because they realised that this would lead to their own annihilation and Iran’s instant destruction. And second, because the Iranian leadership would be reluctant to sacrifice the ‘vast amounts of money’ and ‘huge economic empires’ they had accumulated (again, the US should know as it is so well-versed in such matters) – now, presumably, even greater than they were then.

The same official acknowledged that Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor did not end Saddam’s nuclear weapon’s programme, it initiated it.

Clearly, the recent 12-day ‘feeler’ or ‘warm-up’ war was prosecuted by the US and Israel in the full knowledge that, first, if Iran had nuclear weapons (very unlikely), there was only about a 1% chance that they would use them against Israel; and second, if they didn’t, there was good evidence to suggest that an attack by Israel and the US would spur Iran into developing them, as it had done with Iraq.

As we and others have observed elsewhere, in the light of the above, in Iran the balance of opinion in government is now likely to have swung in favour of developing nuclear weapons, as a deterrent.

It would be the rational thing to do. Chomsky (2007) tacitly agrees: ‘It is easy to understand an observation by one of Israel’s leading military historians, Martin van Creveld. After the U.S. invaded Iraq, knowing it to be defenceless, he noted, “Had the Iranians not tried to build nuclear weapons, they would be crazy.”’

In the same paper, Chomsky asks the rhetorical question, ‘how would “we” (the US) have reacted if Iran had invaded Canada and Mexico?’ Of course, since then, the provocations and scope for rhetorical questions of this sort have got much worse.

A Framework for Peace

The framework for peace is the same as it has been since the turn of the century, namely, the creation of a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Middle East (WMDFZME).

For some time, ‘global… support [has been] overwhelming for a WMDFZME; this zone would include Iran, Israel and preferably the other two nuclear powers that have refused to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: India and Pakistan, who, along with Israel, developed their programs with US aid’ (Chomsky, 2012).

Straightforward enough for sane people who want to avoid catastrophe, but even more certain to be spurned now than it was then by the US and Israel for the reasons given above.

The Likely Character of the Impending War

At the beginning of this essay, we referred briefly to just some of the consequences of the invasion of Iraq by the US and its allies, which have included up to 3 million Iraqi deaths.

In my own experience of post-invasion Iraq in 2011/2012, I found a much-underemphasised effect of its invasion and occupation to be as follows:

For many citizens, perhaps most important of all, [is] the daily public humiliation at the hands of foreign occupying forces… [which] has stripped them of much of their sense of personal and national honour and pride, their dignity and their self-respect. All of this can result in something akin to mass psychological trauma in the population as a whole, and particularly among children.

…in the immediate aftermath [of invasion and occupation], for the visitor to such places, it is this feature of the state that is among the most striking and emblematic. A deep and pervasive sense of national violation, sullen resentment of chronic injustice, combined with popular antipathy towards the invader and its vestiges are palpable and everywhere discernible in the statements and body language of ordinary citizens.

These societal responses can last in uniquely damaging ways for generations.

Over a period of three quarters of a century, we have shown in our discussion above that Iran has been subjected to similar indignities and humiliations by the same perpetrators, which in the brief war of June 2025 alone included the assassination of 30 Iranian military leaders and 11 senior nuclear scientists and the deaths of more than 500 civilians. For many, perhaps most, Iranians, the cumulative effects of these humiliations will be much the same as those I observed in Iraq in 2011/12, and which research demonstrates are very long lasting – over generations. Iranians will be incensed that the US and Israel can do these things to them repeatedly and with disdain and apparent impunity – as sane people anywhere would be.

Partly for these reasons, a war between the US/Irael and Iran is likely to be much longer lasting, much more bitterly contested, and much bloodier and more destructive than previous wars in the region.

But it will be so also because the opposing sides will be much more evenly matched militarily; because the weaponry used by both sides will be much more advanced and deadlier; because Iran is a huge country geographically – about twice the size of Iraq – and has a population of more than 90 million; because Iran will receive significant material support from other countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, and many Islamic countries; and because Iran has great pride in the continuity of its ancient civilisation and a long history of resisting and, eventually, overcoming invaders.

Such a conflict could well result in WWIII, as Chomsky (2007) noted some years ago when the circumstances were not nearly as incendiary as they are now.

Apportioning Responsibility

Even in a case which many would suppose with good cause to be open and shut, it is necessary when apportioning responsibility for war to present and consider the evidence as we have tried to do above.

To reiterate, in 2012, Chomsky observed that ‘Iran’s strategic doctrine is defensive, designed to deter invasion long enough for diplomacy to take effect. If Iran is developing nuclear weapons (which is still undetermined), that would be part of its deterrent strategy.’

Even in the face of the increased and persistent aggression by the US and Israel since then, there is nothing to suggest that Iran’s position has changed.

Indeed, despite the incessant provocation by the US and Israel – including credible alleged betrayal by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the whereabouts of the Iranian nuclear scientists assassinated by Mossad in June 2025 – Iran has resumed dialogue with the IAEA about the possibility of a new inspection arrangement.

For the US, on the other hand, Chomsky’s (2015) words of ten years ago apply with even greater force now because the US government’s weakening grip on global power is likely to have increased its desperation: ‘[The United States] is a rogue state, indifferent to international law and conventions, entitled to resort to violence at will. … Take, for example, the Clinton Doctrine—namely, the United States is free to resort to unilateral use of military power, even for such purposes as to ensure uninhibited access to key markets, energy supplies and strategic resources—let alone security or alleged humanitarian concerns. And adherence to this doctrine is very well confirmed and practiced, as need hardly be discussed among people willing to look at the facts of current history.’

An administrative change made recently by President Trump – which renamed the Department of Defence the Department of War – is partly no doubt Trumpian bravado and bluster but it is also a strong statement of the increasing bellicosity of his government.

For the US and Israel and Western capitalist elites in general, the economic and geostrategic incentives for regime change in Iran, which have always been great, now seem irresistible. Made urgent by the fact that delay will make the task much more difficult.

For Iran, on the other hand, its posture remains defensive – because it recognises the immense human costs that a full-fledged and drawn-out war will entail; because its leadership, like any government, wants to remain in power (and, perhaps, as alleged by US intelligence some years ago, protect their personal fortunes); and because in the end such war will still be suicidal.

The crucial difference is that Iran’s defensive stance now seems certain to include the rapid development of nuclear weapons, for deterrence. The longer that the US and Israel wait, the more likely this becomes.

It is here, perhaps, that the two critical personalities on the aggressors’ side will most come into play. Egged on by the baying of Israeli Zionists at home, the powerful Israel lobby in the US, and the insatiable avarice of the hyena-like cackle of savage capitalists that Trump has assembled in his cabinet, the majestic self-assurance (omniscience) of Trump and Netanyahu combined with the conviction that all will be lost unless Iran can be brought to heel quickly make an imminent attack on Iran almost inevitable despite the strong likelihood that it will lead to a nuclear conflagration.

This, together with the mycorrhizal relationship that exists between two extremely aggressive rogue states whose interests in regime change in Iran coincide, we believe has created an unstoppable momentum.

One in which the trigger for war will be in the hands of a US president whose psychological propensities and fallibilities are so well known that the large number and heavy weight of factors in favour of an all-out assault on Iran can be packaged in a way that will make him squeeze it.

And so a protracted and perhaps unwinnable war will be set in motion, another ancient civilisation (a fanatical ‘peripheral country’ that can destroy the world – no matter the oxymoron) will be incinerated by the Fat Boy Posse, the Middle East will be set ablaze, and a world war could follow. All to the accompaniment of the phocine clapping and honking of approval from Trump’s herd of domesticated oligarchs, the exultant hosanas of Israeli Zionists, and the celebratory tinkling of champagne glasses among capitalist elites.

Peter Blunt is Honorary Professor, School of Business, University of New South Wales (Canberra), Australia. He has held tenured full professorships of management in universities in Australia, Norway, and the UK, and has worked as a consultant in development assistance in 40 countries, including more than three years with the World Bank in Jakarta, Indonesia. His commissioned publications on governance and public sector management informed UNDP policy on these matters and his books include the standard works on organisation and management in Africa and, most recently, (with Cecilia Escobar and Vlassis Missos) The Political Economy of Bilateral Aid: Implications for Global Development (Routledge, 2023) and The Political Economy of Dissent: A Research Companion (Routledge, forthcoming 2026). Read other articles by Peter.