Africa, climate, and food: How to feed a continent without increasing its carbon footprint
An international study compares Africa’s trajectory with China’s and proposes concrete solutions—from water management in rice paddies to modernizing logistics chains—to produce more food without worsening the climate.
The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture
image:
Africa’s agrifood system emits nearly 2.9 billion tonnes of CO₂.
view moreCredit: Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT
Africa’s agrifood system emits nearly 2.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent every year—more than a quarter of global sector emissions. An international study compares Africa’s trajectory with China’s and proposes concrete solutions—from water management in rice paddies to modernizing logistics chains—to produce more food without worsening the climate. These analyses were conducted by researchers Xia Li, Yumei Zhang, Shenggen Fan (China Agricultural University) and Issa Ouedraogo (Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT)
A growing continent: More mouths to feed, fewer emissions to produce
Africa’s population will reach around 2.5 billion by 2050. This reality translates into a simple but complex challenge: produce more without emitting more. Today, agrifood systems account for nearly a third of global emissions. On the continent, the footprint increased by about 40% between 2000 and 2021, rising from 2.03 to 2.85 Gt CO₂e. This rise has not been uniform: some subregions, such as East and Central Africa, saw faster growth, often linked to expanding croplands and herds. Elsewhere, soil management policies, modest mechanization, and more advanced urbanization slowed the curve—but did not reverse it.
At the heart of this equation, the Congo Basin—the world’s second tropical lung—plays a key role. The steady loss of primary rainforests—several million hectares since the early 2000s—threatens essential carbon sinks and undermines rural livelihoods. Every hectare saved, every farm established without cutting ancient forests, counts twice: for the climate and for local incomes.
Faced with demographic and food pressures, the study underlines an often-forgotten truth: there is no single “Africa,” but many Africas. Agroecological contexts, production systems, water access, and market structures vary greatly. The solution, therefore, is not one uniform “grand plan” but differentiated pathways. In forest zones, the priority is curbing deforestation and restoring landscapes. In pastoral regions, cutting methane from ruminants through better feeding and animal health. In rice plains, managing water and nitrogen to curb emissions without lowering yields. And in urban supply basins, modernizing collection, processing, and transport so that every kilo produced actually reaches a plate.
The good news: these pathways already exist, are being tested, and generate co-benefits (income, jobs, resilience to climate shocks). The challenge now is to accelerate, support, and scale them up.
Forests, rice paddies, livestock: The big three — and the small shifts that change everything
Deforestation remains the largest source of emissions in several Central and West African countries. When dense forest is converted into farmland (cocoa, oil palm, maize) or pasture, the CO₂ stored in trees and soils is released. But the solution is not just to “stop cutting.” It means making forest protection economically rewarding for communities: clear land tenure, agroforestry that integrates trees and crops, zero-deforestation traceability in cocoa–coffee–palm oil chains, payments for ecosystem services, and markets that pay for sustainable quality and origin. Where these conditions are met, producers see real benefits in preserving trees rather than felling them.
In flooded rice paddies, the issue is methane (CH₄). Stagnant water creates conditions that favor its formation. A simple practice, proven in Asia and tested in West Africa, makes a big difference: Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD). Instead of keeping paddies permanently flooded, farmers alternate wet and drier periods. The result: up to ~30% water savings and up to ~47% less methane in recent pilots, with no yield loss when technical support is provided (irrigation scheduling, leveling, guidance). For family farms, this means less pumping, lower energy bills, and more resilient production in drought-prone seasons.
For livestock, the challenge is enteric fermentation in ruminants. Here too, solutions are within reach: improved forages (nitrogen-fixing legumes, more digestible species), mineral supplements, and animal health (deworming, regular watering, rest). In practice, this leads to more milk and meat per animal, and fewer emissions per liter or kilo. In the Sahel and East Africa, these “climate + income” solutions have already proven effective in pilot projects, with strong interest among pastoralist and agropastoralist communities facing drought and competition over water and pasture.
The common thread of this forest–rice–ruminant trio? Simple technical measures, but backed by solid public support: local extension services, access to credit, land security, and commercial outlets. Without this ecosystem, good practices remain isolated. With it, they become the new norm.
The hidden footprint of our food: Fertilizers, post-harvest losses, and the road to cities
When we think “agricultural emissions,” we imagine the field. But a growing share comes before and after: producing inputs (fertilizers, packaging), storing, processing, packaging, transporting, selling, and managing waste. This “life around the plate” already accounts for nearly a fifth of the global total and is rising with Africa’s urbanization.
- Nitrogen fertilizers: They boost productivity but are energy-intensive to produce. Manufacturing ammonia (the basis of urea) emits ≈ 2.4–2.9 t CO₂ per tonne of NH₃. Two complementary tracks are needed. First, greening chemistry (renewable hydrogen, carbon capture and storage). Second, smarter field application (soil diagnostics, split application, cover crops, compost, biofertilizers). The right dose at the right time, combined with cleaner sources, cuts the footprint while protecting yields.
- Post-harvest losses: In many value chains (fruits, vegetables, tubers), 20–30% of production is lost between farm and market. This is both a climate and economic waste. Solutions are emerging: shared solar cold rooms, ventilated crates, field sorting, passable roads, real-time market information. Operators such as ColdHubs in Nigeria show large-scale impact: thousands of tonnes saved from loss in one year, higher incomes for producers and traders, safer food for consumers.
- Logistics: Intra-regional trade still relies heavily on trucking. To lower emissions per ton-kilometer, trucks must be better loaded, backhauls reduced, refrigeration improved (insulation, efficient engines), fleets renewed, and rail prioritized where electricity is decarbonized. Recognized methods (GLEC/EDF frameworks) help businesses and authorities measure and reduce footprints.
And then there is us, urban consumers. Our choices matter: seasonal products, shorter supply chains when available, simpler packaging, supporting brands and cooperatives that disclose their climate efforts. Added up, these small shifts cut the carbon bill without sacrificing affordability or quality. The hidden footprint is becoming visible—and visibility is the first step to reducing it.
Scaling up: Public policies, finance, and innovation to accelerate change
The good news is that pathways exist. The less good: time is short and scale is lacking. On public policy, several countries are leading the way. In Kenya, a fertilizer subsidy program launched in 2022 via e-vouchers helps farmers secure yields while improving targeting and transparency. The lesson? Involve the private sector, strengthen agronomic support, and include environmental goals (nitrogen management, organic and biofertilizers) to avoid rebound effects. In South Africa, the Climate Change Act (2024) introduces sectoral carbon budgets and aligns the carbon tax with national trajectories—a strong signal for agribusiness, cold chains, and transport, with adaptation plans expected at provincial and municipal levels. At the regional level, the AFR100 initiative commits over 30 countries to restoring 100 million hectares by 2030, increasingly emphasizing ecosystem restoration (e.g., avoiding conversion of natural savannas), trees outside forests, and local value chains.
The keystone remains finance. Adaptation and mitigation needs in agriculture and land use will exceed USD 50 billion per year by 2030. Mobilizing such sums requires bankable, replicable projects: AWD rice systems, solar cold chains, organic fertilization and biofertilizers, landscape restoration, improved forages and animal health, zero-deforestation traceability, low-carbon logistics. Each project must show measurable results: tonnes of CO₂e avoided, liters or kilos produced, losses prevented, jobs created, market share gained for cooperatives, gender impacts (inclusion of women, youth, marginalized groups).
The study suggests a realistic and motivating target: deploy proven technologies to 20% of family farms to generate substantial climate gains in the short term, with co-benefits for incomes, resilience, and soil health. In practice, this means training field advisers, offering tailored credit (small amounts, repayments aligned with farm cycles), securing land access, and opening markets that reward low-carbon and quality production.
The final message is simple: feeding Africa and protecting the climate are not opposing goals. By combining smart public policies, agronomic innovations, and value chain innovations, the continent can slow the growth of its emissions while improving access to safe, nutritious food. The path is clear; the challenge is to move faster, further, together—governments, communities, researchers, producers, businesses, donors, and consumers.
The study compares the sources of carbon emissions.
Credit
X.Li; Y.Zhang; S. Fan; I. Ouedraogo
Read the full study Agrifood system carbon emissions and reduction policy: insights from China and Africa published in Frontiers in Agricultural Science & Engineering (vol. 12, 2025) for detailed methodology and policy recommendations.
Journal
Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering
Article Title
Agrifood system carbon emissions and reduction policy: insights from China and Africa
Ethiopia: When soils become a tool against climate change
The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture
In Ethiopia, understanding soil is key to climate adaptation
In the upper Abbay basin, cradle of the Blue Nile, a team of researchers have predicted soils of the future: what will happen to soil organic carbon if we bet on regenerative agriculture—returning residues, organic manure, cover crops, agroforestry? Their 50-year modelling unveils a mixed picture: yes, land can regain fertility and resilience if we feed soils more; but under warming and increasingly erratic rains, these benefits weaken and vary greatly across territories. A lesson in science and field realities, published on October 1, 2025, and authored by Wuletawu Abera, Amsalu Tilaye, Degefie Tibebe, and Assefa Abegaz.
Soil carbon: A hidden but decisive wealth
Imagine an invisible treasure lying beneath your feet. This treasure is called soil organic carbon. It retains water, feeds plants, makes the land softer and more resilient. For agropastoral families, this means fewer nasty surprises: fields that withstand a late rain, more stable yields, harvests that feed children even in difficult years.
But this capital is eroding. For decades, forests have been cleared, crop residues diverted to feed livestock or fuel stoves, and rains have stripped away fertile layers. As a result, soils have lost much of their initial carbon stock. And that is not all. Climate projections forecast a hotter (+2.2 °C by 2070) and drier future, which accelerates the decomposition of organic matter. In other words: soils lose faster than they recover.
Yet every kilo of carbon that remains in the ground counts twice: it limits global warming and boosts local productivity. It is easy to see why scientists insist: soil is a strategic lever, both for Ethiopia’s climate policies and for the survival of farming households.
The dilemma is biomass. Every straw, every branch, every pile of manure is coveted. Should it feed animals, heat the home, or nourish the soil? These are daily trade-offs, made in smoky kitchens or at field edges, by families juggling immediate needs and uncertain futures.
Diving into the future with a “digital twin” of the soil
Measuring the breath of millions of plots is impossible. So scientists have created a virtual twin: a computer model called RothC. They fed it with data on soils, climates, crops, and simulated fifty years of change. Their method is precise: each “pixel” of the territory has its own trajectory, reflecting the basin’s complex mosaic.
They tested eight scenarios. Four levels of farming practices: from business-as-usual up to +50% organic inputs (leaving residues in the field, more manure, cover crops, agroforestry). And two climates: the current one, and the hotter, drier one to come. This combination produced a vast tableau telling the future of soils year by year until 2070.
But these abstract figures translate into very concrete gestures: leaving more straw on the field, building a manure shed to avoid losses, sowing legumes that enrich the soil, planting hedges to curb erosion. Behind every option lies extra work—often shouldered by women—and collective decisions: who decides grazing? Who hauls manure? Who buys cover crop seeds?
The great lesson of this approach is clear: there is no one-size-fits-all solution. In the wetter west, soils can store large amounts of carbon. In the drier east, even ambitious efforts are not enough. This means science does not offer a magic recipe but rather a map: it shows where to invest heavily and where to adapt pragmatically.
Promises and limits: When climate reshuffles the cards
The results are both encouraging and alarming. Good news: if practices change, soils do store more carbon. In an unchanged climate, the gains are spectacular: up to 13 tonnes per hectare over fifty years in the most ambitious scenarios. Bad news: with warming and less rainfall, these gains are cut in half. In some cases, soils even start losing carbon.
Another finding: territorial inequalities widen. The basin’s wetter west retains strong storage potential. The drier east sees its hopes dwindle, even with heroic efforts. This means some communities may turn carbon sequestration into income or an agricultural asset, while others must focus on adaptation just to survive.
Beyond maps and numbers, faces appear: those of farmers confronted with impossible trade-offs—using straw to keep a cow alive or to protect the soil from pounding rain? Burning wood to cook dinner or leaving it standing to enrich the land?
These choices reveal a strong political message: regenerative practices are not just a matter of technique. They require enabling conditions: energy alternatives to free up biomass, cooperatives to manage manure, carbon finance to offset labor costs. Without these, the most ambitious scenarios will remain on paper, far from field realities.
What next? A realistic roadmap
The study does not stop at diagnosis; it also proposes solutions. It invites action in stages. Start with what is feasible: secure part of the residues, better conserve manure, establish local grazing rules. These simple, community-driven steps already make a difference.
Then scale up with legumes, cover crops, agroforestry. But these efforts must not rest solely on women’s shoulders. Reducing their workload, easing access to inputs, and recognizing their role in farming systems are essential conditions for a just transition.
Local authorities and technical services also play a key role. They must target territories: invest heavily where the potential is high, while helping elsewhere to safeguard fertility with adapted solutions. They must also regulate use: set goals for residue restitution, support manure storage, encourage energy alternatives.
Finally, donors and climate finance mechanisms are central. Without financial incentives, households cannot afford the risk. But if stored carbon tonnes are rewarded, if bonuses support efforts, then sequestration becomes a source of income, not just a burden.
In short, the message is clear: even though climate change complicates the task, Ethiopian soils can once again become a foundation of resilience. But this requires combining science, social organization, and financing. Soil carbon is not an abstraction: it is the key to a viable agricultural future for millions of families.
Read the full study “Modelling SOC dynamics on cropland under different regenerative agriculture practices and climate change scenario using RothC model in the Abbay basin of Ethiopia”, published on October 1, 2025 in Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, for detailed methodology, data, and actionable policy recommendations for stakeholders.
Agroforestry efforts in Ethiopia
Credit
Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT
Journal
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
DOI
10.1016/j.indic.2025.100957
Article Title
Modelling SOC dynamics on cropland under different regenerative agriculture practices and climate change scenario using RothC model in the Abbay basin of Ethiopia
Article Publication Date
1-Oct-2025
