Assessing overconfidence among national security officials

Dartmouth study analyzes assessments from NATO members and allies.

Dartmouth College

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National security officials are "overwhelmingly overconfident," which hinders their ability to accurately assess uncertainty, according to new research by a Dartmouth government professor. When they thought statements had a 90% chance of being true, the statements were only true about 60% of the time, according to the study. 

The findings are published in the Texas National Security Review.

About 1,900 national security officials from more than 40 NATO allies and partners were surveyed on the uncertainty of current and future states of the world, and delivered a total of 60,000 assessments. The officials were enrolled at the U.S. National War College, the Canadian Forces College, the NATO Defense College, and the Norwegian Defense Intelligence School.

In the U.S., Canada, and Europe, once military officers achieve the rank of colonel, they must obtain a master's degree at a war college or other military institution as part of their professional military education. Participating institutions also contained a large fraction of civilian national security officials who work in foreign affairs ministries and intelligence agencies, among other areas. The study thus spanned both an unusually large, and representative, group of high-ranking national security officials.

The survey contained questions on international military, political, and economic affairs and  asked respondents to estimate the chances that a statement was true such as: "In your opinion, what are the chances that NATO's members spend more money on defense than the rest of the world combined?"

Other questions involved making predictions such as: "In your opinion, what are the chances that Ukraine and Russia will officially declare a ceasefire by a certain date?"

The results showed that national security officials are overconfident about the current and future state of the world—a cognitive bias that was consistent across all respondents, civilian and military professionals, men and women, and U.S. and non-U.S. citizens. They share these biases with the general public.

"National security officials are like many of us, in the sense that we tend to think we know more than we really do. This means that national security officials, like members of the general public, are consistently overconfident," says study author Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor of government and member of the Davidson Institute for Global Security at Dartmouth. He says that overconfidence among national security officials is similar to biases he has found when conducting similar surveys with undergraduates, masters students, and financial professionals.

"However, the study also showed that it is possible to mitigate that bias substantially with just two minutes of training," says Friedman. His research found that briefly showing national security officials data on patterns of overconfidence led study participants to make judgments that substantially reduced overconfidence–and promoted accuracy.

The study also found that national security officials have a bias towards false positives— a tendency to think false statements are true.

This was demonstrated by flipping the wording of survey questions. In a subset of surveys, half of the participants were asked: "Has ISIS killed more civilians over the last decade than Boko Horam?" while the other half were asked: "Has Boko Haram killed more civilians than ISIS?" The answers that national security officials gave to these two questions consistently added up to more than 100%.

Friedman says that this finding indicates that national security officials appear to have a "tendency towards confirming rather than refuting possibilities they are asked to consider," which could be especially problematic for national security officials given that there could potentially be multiple outcomes to consider in military scenarios, rather than just one.

The study did suggest one potential remedy for the overconfidence–reminding national security officials of the perils of being too sure of their convictions.

Before a random subset of the national security officials were given the survey, they received information about other cohorts' overconfidence and biases. Through this two-minute training and informed approach, those participants were significantly better at assessing uncertainty.

Friedman says the four military institutions who took part in the study, deserve a ton of credit for their participation. The work had a ripple effect: the first cohort was from the National War College, which was so pleased with the session that they invited Friedman back, and then other military institutions came on board following recommendations by past participants. "It was very rewarding to see how receptive the national security officials were to the insights and training, as the training was then built into the core curricula at the institutions," says Friedman.

"Any organization that cares about improving people's ability to assess uncertainty in a more accurate manner can implement this training," says Friedman. "The material is posted online and can be developed and integrated into curricula anywhere, whether it be by military officials, diplomats, intelligence officers, business leaders, or others."

"By harnessing decision science tools, we can make people's judgements better," says Friedman.

Friedman is available for comment at: Jeffrey.A.Friedman@dartmouth.edu.

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DOI

10.1353/tns.00010 

Article Title

The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials

 

Biochar from invasive weed shields rice from toxic nanoplastics and heavy metals

Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University

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image: 

Mitigating combined internalized toxicity of nanoplastics and cadmium in rice through metabolic and biochemical regulations under supply of biochar biofilters derived from Mikania Micrantha

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Credit: Muhammad Shoaib Rana, Rongjie Ren, Muhammad Imran, Yousif Abdelrahman Yousif Abdellah, Hongyu Chen, Shiwen Deng, Jiaxin Li, Jiayu Lin & Ruilong Wang

A team of scientists has found that biochar made from an aggressive invasive plant can protect rice from two modern pollutants that threaten global food security: nanoplastics and cadmium. The study, published in Biochar, reveals how biochar biofilters derived from Mikania micrantha, an invasive vine spreading across Asia, can reduce the combined toxicity of these contaminants by regulating plant metabolism and strengthening rice’s natural defense systems.

Nanoplastics, the tiny fragments of degraded plastics, and cadmium, a persistent heavy metal, frequently coexist in agricultural soils and water. Their combined effects are more harmful than either pollutant alone, disrupting photosynthesis, root growth, and cellular structures in crops. In the new research, rice plants exposed to both pollutants suffered a 16 percent loss in biomass. However, when grown with the Mikania biochar biofilter, biomass increased by more than 80 percent, and chlorophyll and protein levels were significantly restored.

Microscopic imaging showed that nanoplastics were able to penetrate rice roots under cadmium stress, acting as carriers that transported the metal deep into plant tissues. The biochar biofilter formed a physical and chemical barrier, trapping the pollutants and reducing their movement within the plant. The biochar also enhanced the rice’s antioxidant activity and gene expression related to stress defense, helping maintain healthier root and leaf cell structures.

Further biochemical and metabolomic analyses revealed that biochar-treated plants had better nutrient balance and more stable energy cycles, including improved nitrogen transport and tricarboxylic acid (TCA) pathways. In contrast, nanoplastics interfered with hormone signaling and ATP-binding transporters, intensifying cadmium uptake and toxicity.

The findings point to an innovative, sustainable strategy for mitigating pollution in farmlands. Using an invasive weed to produce biochar not only converts ecological waste into a useful soil amendment but also offers a low-cost solution for protecting crops from emerging contaminants. The researchers say the dual benefit, controlling an invasive species while improving soil and plant health, could be valuable for cleaner and safer food production systems.

The study underscores the potential of biochar biofilters as a green technology to combat the intertwined challenges of plastic pollution, heavy metal contamination, and invasive plant management in agriculture.

 

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Journal Reference: Rana, M.S., Ren, R., Imran, M. et al. Mitigating combined internalized toxicity of nanoplastics and cadmium in rice through metabolic and biochemical regulations under supply of biochar biofilters derived from Mikania Micrantha. Biochar 7, 98 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42773-025-00488-6  

 

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About Biochar

Biochar is the first journal dedicated exclusively to biochar research, spanning agronomy, environmental science, and materials science. It publishes original studies on biochar production, processing, and applications—such as bioenergy, environmental remediation, soil enhancement, climate mitigation, water treatment, and sustainability analysis. The journal serves as an innovative and professional platform for global researchers to share advances in this rapidly expanding field. 

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Journal

Biochar

DOI

10.1007/s42773-025-00488-6 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Mitigating combined internalized toxicity of nanoplastics and cadmium in rice through metabolic and biochemical regulations under supply of biochar biofilters derived from Mikania Micrantha

 

Soil bacteria and minerals form a natural “battery” that breaks down antibiotics in the dark

Discovery reveals how microbes can store sunlight energy to clean polluted soils and water even without light

Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University

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A bio-photovoltage soil-microbe battery for antibiotic degradation in the dark

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Credit: Shunling Li, Ye Chen, Min Wu, Peng Zhang, Peng Cui, Wenyan Duan, Bo Pan, & Baoshan Xing

Researchers have unveiled a surprising new way that soil microbes can use sunlight energy — even after the lights go out. A team from Kunming University of Science and Technology and the University of Massachusetts Amherst has developed a “bio-photovoltage soil-microbe battery” that can capture, store, and release solar energy to power the breakdown of antibiotic pollutants in the dark.

The study, published in Environmental and Biogeochemical Processes, shows that common soil bacteria known as Bacillus megaterium can partner with iron minerals to form a living biofilm that behaves like a rechargeable geochemical capacitor. When exposed to light, the iron-bacteria film absorbs photons and stores the resulting electrons. Later, in the absence of light, it releases these stored charges to trigger chemical reactions that degrade antibiotics such as tetracycline and chloramphenicol.

“Our findings reveal that soil microorganisms and minerals can together function like tiny natural batteries,” said co-corresponding author Professor Bo Pan of Kunming University of Science and Technology. “This system can capture sunlight during the day and use that energy at night to remove pollutants.”

In laboratory experiments, the Fe₂O₃–B. megaterium composite generated a total accumulated charge of 8.06 microcoulombs per square centimeter during light–dark cycles. After one hour of light exposure, the system degraded up to 22 percent of antibiotics in complete darkness, a performance up to 67 percent higher than with shorter light exposure.

The mechanism relies on the cycling of iron between its Fe(II) and Fe(III) forms, aided by bacterial metabolism. This redox relay enables electron storage and gradual release, creating a stable power source for dark-phase reactions. The team’s electrochemical analyses confirmed that this mineral–microbe interface enhances charge transfer and reduces energy losses, forming a biological pseudocapacitor.

“This discovery opens a new window into how solar energy can drive biogeochemical processes even below the soil surface where sunlight cannot reach,” said Professor Baoshan Xing of the University of Massachusetts Amherst, a co-corresponding author. “It also suggests an environmentally sustainable way to remediate contaminated soils and groundwater.”

The researchers believe that similar mineral–microbe systems may play a hidden but vital role in natural energy cycles and pollution control across ecosystems.

 

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Journal reference: Li S, Chen Y, Wu M, Zhang P, Cui P, et al. 2025. A bio-photovoltage soil-microbe battery for antibiotic degradation in the dark. Environmental and Biogeochemical Processes 1: e004  https://www.maxapress.com/article/doi/10.48130/ebp-0025-0006  

 

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About the Journal:

Environmental and Biogeochemical Processes is a multidisciplinary platform for communicating advances in fundamental and applied research on the interactions and processes involving the cycling of elements and compounds between the biological, geological, and chemical components of the environment. 

Follow us on Facebook, X, and Bluesky. 

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DOI

10.48130/ebp-0025-0006 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

A bio-photovoltage soil-microbe battery for antibiotic degradation in the dark

 

Widely prescribed opioid painkiller tramadol not that effective for easing chronic pain

While it likely increases the risk of serious side effects, including heart disease; Potential harms probably outweigh benefits, and use should be minimised, say researchers

BMJ Group

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The strong opioid painkiller, tramadol, is not that effective at easing chronic pain for which it’s widely prescribed, finds a pooled data analysis of the available research, published online in BMJ Evidence Based Medicine.

 

And it likely increases the risk of serious side effects, including heart disease, the findings indicate, prompting the researchers to conclude that the potential harms of tramadol probably outweigh its benefits, and that its use should be minimised.

 

Tramadol is a dual action opioid widely prescribed for the treatment of moderate to severe acute and chronic pain. As such, it’s recommended in several medical guidelines for pain management, note the researchers.

 

Its use has surged in recent years, and it’s now among the most commonly prescribed opioids in the US, possibly because of its perceived lower risk of side effects and the widespread belief that it is safer and less addictive than other short-acting opioids, they add.

 

Although tramadol has been included in previous systematic reviews, none has provided a comprehensive assessment of tramadol’s efficacy and safety in a range of chronic pain conditions, they say.

 

In a bid to plug this knowledge gap, the researchers scoured research databases for randomised clinical trials published up to February 2025 that compared tramadol with placebo (dummy treatment) for patients with chronic pain, including cancer pain. 

 

Nineteen clinical trials involving 6506 participants with chronic pain were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. Five looked at the impact of tramadol on neuropathic pain; nine focused on osteoarthritis; four looked at chronic low back pain; and one focused on fibromyalgia.

 

The average age of the trial participants was 58, but ranged from 47 to 69. Tablets were the primary formulation used; only one trial included topical cream. Length of treatment ranged from 2 to 16 weeks while length of follow up ranged from 3 to 15 weeks.

 

Pooled data analysis of the trial results showed that while tramadol eased pain, the effect was small and below what would be considered clinically effective. 

 

Eight of the trials reported on the proportion of serious side effects arising after treatment during follow up periods of between 7 and 16 weeks.

 

Statistical analysis of these trials results indicated a doubling in the risk of harms associated with tramadol compared with placebo, mainly driven by a higher proportion of ‘cardiac events,’ such as chest pain, coronary artery disease, and congestive heart failure. 

 

Use of tramadol was also associated with a heightened risk of some cancers, although the follow up period was short, making this finding “questionable,” say the researchers. 

 

Pooled data analysis of all the trial results indicated that tramadol treatment was associated with a heightened risk of several milder side effects, including nausea, dizziness, constipation, and sleepiness.

 

The researchers acknowledge that the outcome results were at high risk of bias, but this increases the likelihood that the findings overestimate the beneficial effects and underestimate the harmful effects of tramadol, they suggest.

 

They point out: “Approximately 60 million individuals worldwide experience the addictive effects of opioids. In 2019, drug use was responsible for approximately 600,000 deaths, with nearly 80% of these fatalities associated with opioids and approximately 25% resulting from opioid overdose.

 

“In the United States, the number of opioid-related overdose deaths increased from 49,860 in 2019 to 81,806 in 2022. Given these trends and the present findings, the use of tramadol and other opioids should be minimised to the greatest extent possible.”

They conclude: “Tramadol may have a slight effect on reducing chronic pain (low certainty of evidence) while likely increasing the risk of both serious (moderate certainty of evidence) and non- serious adverse events (very low certainty of evidence). The potential harms associated with tramadol use for pain management likely outweigh its limited benefits.”

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Journal

BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine

DOI

10.1136/bmjebm-2025-114101 

Method of Research

Systematic review

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Tramadol versus placebo for chronic pain: a systematic review with meta- analysis and trial sequential analysis

Article Publication Date

7-Oct-2025