Thursday, October 09, 2025

 

China’s emerging AI regulation could foster an open and safe future for AI



Summary author: Walter Beckwith



American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)




In a Policy Forum, Yue Zhu and colleagues provide an overview of China’s emerging regulation for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and its potential contributions to global AI governance. Open-source AI systems from China are rapidly expanding worldwide, even as the country’s regulatory framework remains in flux. In general, AI governance suffers from fragmented approaches, a lack of clarity, and difficulty reconciling innovation with risk management, making global coordination especially hard in the face of rising controversy. Although no official AI law has yet been enacted, experts in China have drafted two influential proposals – the Model AI Law and the AI Law (Scholar’s Proposal) – which serve as key references for ongoing policy discussions. As the nation’s lawmakers prepare to draft a consolidated AI law, Zhu et al. note that the decisions will shape not only China’s innovation, but also global collaboration on AI safety, openness, and risk mitigation. Here, the authors discuss China’s emerging AI regulation as structured around 6 pillars, which, combined, stress exemptive laws, efficient adjudication, and experimentalist requirements, while safeguarding against extreme risks. This framework seeks to balance responsible oversight with pragmatic openness, allowing developers to innovate for the long term and collaborate across the global research community. According to Zhu et al., despite the need for greater clarity, harmonization, and simplification, China’s evolving model is poised to shape future legislation and contribute meaningfully to global AI governance by promoting both safety and innovation at a time when international cooperation on extreme risks is urgently needed.

 

The secret to naked mole-rat’s longevity: Enhanced DNA repair



Summary author: Walter Beckwith




American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)




The secret to the naked mole-rats’ extraordinarily long life may lie in subtle changes to just four amino acids, researchers report. According to a new study, evolutionary mutations in cGAS – an enzyme in the innate immune system that senses DNA to trigger immune responses – may enhance the animal’s ability to repair aging-related genetic damage, whereas in other species, such as mice and humans, cGAS can suppress DNA repair. Wrinkled and unassuming though they appear, the naked mole-rat (Heterocephalus glaber) is an exceptionally long-lived rodent, with a maximum life span of nearly 40 years – roughly 10 times longer than similarly sized species. Moreover, the creatures’ genetic makeup is surprisingly closer to humans than to mice, which makes it a valuable model for studying the molecular mechanisms underlying the species’ longevity. One key aspect of long life is genome stability. However, the ways naked mole-rats maintain DNA integrity, particularly through repair mechanisms, remain poorly understood. Homologous recombination (HR) is a critical DNA repair pathway, and defects in HR are linked to premature aging. In humans and mice, the DNA sensor cGAS (cyclic guanosine monophosphate–adenosine monophosphate synthase) can suppress HR repair, potentially promoting cancer and shortening lifespan.

 

Yu Chen and colleagues investigated whether cGAS similarly inhibits HR in long-lived naked mole-rats. Chen et al. found that, in naked mole-rats, four specific amino acid substitutions in mole-rat cGAS reduce ubiquitination and degradation, allowing the protein to persist for longer and at higher levels after DNA damage. This increased abundance strengthens interactions with key repair factors, FANCI and RAD50, thereby boosting HR repair. When cGAS was depleted from naked mole-rat cells, DNA damage accumulated. The authors further showed that fruit flies engineered to express human cGAS containing the four naked mole-rat–specific mutations lived longer than flies expressing unaltered human cGAS. The findings suggest that these specific evolutionary amino acid mutations in naked mole-rat cGAS not only enhance DNA repair but may also contribute directly to the extraordinary longevity of the species. “The findings from Chen et al. describe an unexpected role for naked mole-rat cGAS in the nucleus that influences longevity, write John Martinez and colleagues in a related Perspective. “Further research will be required to establish the roles that cGAS may play in the nucleus in other organisms, both short- and long-lived, but the answer may be substantially more complex than originally predicted.”

GREENWASHING

New study finds gaps in REDD+ forest carbon offsets with most overstating climate impacts


The new analysis finds widespread over-crediting of projects certified under Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard but also suggests a way forward for the global framework




German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig






Most REDD+ forest carbon offset projects significantly overstate their climate benefits, according to a new study published in Science. The findings come from an international team of researchers, primarily based at the Guangdong Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy (SZ), China, with contributions from Prof. Dr. Jonathan Chase of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) and the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU). 

The study analysed 52 REDD+ initiatives, a total of 66 project units (some initiatives included multiple units), certified under Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard. It follows a 2023 study also published in Science, together with major media investigations, that raised questions about the credibility of carbon credits issued under the same standard. While not directly linked, the new research corroborates those concerns, confirming that only a minority of projects achieved meaningful reductions in deforestation, and just 19% met their reported emissions targets.

How REDD+ impact was measured

To evaluate REDD+ effectiveness, the researchers used so-called synthetic control methods — a statistical approach that compares what actually happened in a project area to what would likely have happened without intervention. This “counterfactual baseline” is built by selecting nearby areas with similar environmental and socioeconomic conditions but without REDD+ implementation. The project sites span 14 tropical countries across Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

These matched control sites act as a stand-in for a REDD+ project's alternate reality, allowing researchers to estimate the true impact of forest protection efforts. By comparing forest loss in REDD+ areas to these controls, the researchers assessed whether the projects actually reduced deforestation and how many of the resulting carbon credits were backed by real climate benefits.

“Our analysis shows the problem is real, but not hopeless,” says co-author Dr. Jonathan Chase, head of the Biodiversity Synthesis research group at iDiv and MLU professor. “By building transparent counterfactuals, we can see which projects deliver and which do not.”

Partial gains signal promise

About one-third (32%) of the project units (21/66) showed significantly less deforestation than expected, with some Brazilian projects achieving dramatic reductions. However, nearly one-fifth (17%) of the units (11/66) experienced more deforestation than their matched controls, and about 35% of initiatives (18/52) reported deforestation baselines that were far higher than what the data supported. In Colombia, for example, most projects claimed deforestation risks more than ten times greater than the study’s estimates, suggesting substantial over-crediting.

To quantify the scale of the issue, the team examined 48 of the 52 projects with publicly available carbon credit data. By the end of 2022, up to 228 million credits had been issued, with 127 million used by companies or individuals to offset their greenhouse gas emissions, yet only about 35 million were likely to represent real emissions reductions. That amounts to only an estimated 13.2% of tradable credits being backed by evidence of avoided deforestation. This discrepancy raises major concerns about the reliability of current offset practices, according to the authors.

“The market needs credits that mean what they claim. We estimate that only about one in eight tradable credits represents real emissions reductions today. Stronger baselines, independent evaluation, and diversified portfolios can raise that number and restore confidence,” Chase adds.

Rethinking REDD+

Despite the challenges, the authors believe that REDD+ remains a promising tool for climate mitigation. Even among underperforming projects, the researchers found many projects delivered partial climate gains. When implemented carefully and evaluated robustly, these projects can deliver climate benefits under the right conditions. According to the authors, the aim is not to abandon REDD+, but to fix it so that every credited ton reflects real climate benefit.

Parched soils can spark hot drought a nation away



A new study found compound drought-heatwave events are rippling farther and lasting through the night, raising risks for Southwestern North America



American Geophysical Union






WASHINGTON — Dry soils in northern Mexico may trigger episodes of simultaneous drought and heatwave hundreds of miles away in the southwestern United States, such as Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, according to a new study. These “hot droughts” in the region increasingly persist through consecutive days and nights rather than easing up after sundown, the research also found, leaving no window for afflicted areas to recover.

Hot drought can kill crops, worsen wildfire risk, and shock workers and outdoor enthusiasts with unexpectedly high temperatures, all more than either drought or heat alone can do. Scientists involved in the study say the findings could help communities better anticipate and prepare for these stressful events in advance, such as by limiting outdoor working hours, keeping medically vulnerable individuals inside, and opening cooling centers when soils far upwind desiccate.

The study appears in Geophysical Research Letters, AGU’s journal for high-impact, innovative, and timely articles on major advances across the geosciences.

“Hot droughts will propagate to other parts of the country and have detrimental effects on health, on infrastructure, on daily life,” said Enrique Vivoni, a hydrologist at Arizona State University and senior author on the study. As climate change continues, the authors said, more places will likely experience the dry soil conditions that spur and spread hot drought. “We need systems to alert us to hot drought just like we have systems that alert us to hurricanes.”

In the summer of 2023, Southwestern North America weathered an unusually intense hot drought. Using temperature records, rain gauge readings, and a soil moisture dataset from satellite and ground-based measurements, Vivoni and Somnath Mondal, a hydroclimatologist at Northeastern University, set out to characterize the event in the context of previous hot droughts and identify the conditions that set the stage. For this study, they defined hot drought as any period when at least two weeks of abnormally low rainfall overlapped with at least three straight days of unusually high temperatures.

Even ordinary summers in the region can get brutal, with daytime temperatures since 1980 typically sitting at around 35 to 40 degrees Celsius (95 to 104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some locations. But 2023’s hot drought, the duo found, cranked up the heat by as much as 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit). This resulted primarily from weather patterns that suppressed the transfer of atmospheric moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the North American Monsoon, which from July to September typically provides 40 to 80 percent of the region’s annual rainfall. The weak monsoon exacerbated the drought already gripping the U.S. Southwest and Northern Mexico at the time.

“Lack of rainfall can increase heat, which can further intensify the loss of water,” noted Mondal. Soil heats up and releases heat more readily when dry, since more of the sun’s energy is spent warming the air and earth rather than evaporating soil moisture.

All told, the event reached nearly five times the severity of average hot drought conditions in the region over the past four decades.

Dry winds know no borders, and desert nights lose their cool

The duo also made two surprising discoveries they hadn’t gone looking for.

Normally, when rain falls over northern Mexico, some of the moisture evaporates from the land surface and returns to the atmosphere, recharging rainclouds that then bring rain downwind to the southwestern U.S. The weak 2023 monsoon may have left Mexican soils too dry to start this cycle, the researchers suggested, triggering hot drought north of the border as well. The correlation between dry Mexican soils and hot drought in the southwestern U.S., on the rise since 1980, is strong enough that soil dryness in the southwestern U.S. itself appears to play a smaller role.

“In 2023, Mexico influenced Arizona’s hot drought in a stronger way than the soil of Arizona itself,” Mondal said, describing the first discovery. “I verified it five times to be sure I was doing the right calculation.”

“We know we receive water vapor, clouds, and rain from Mexico,” Vivoni said. “We didn’t know we could also receive a hot drought.”

The second surprise came from the strength of hot drought at night. Previous hot drought research has mostly ignored nighttime conditions, since in a stable desert climate, most daytime heat dissipates after dark.

But in extreme cases like in 2023, so much daytime heat accumulates that it doesn’t all fade away overnight. Instead, some of it hangs in the atmosphere, piling onto the heat of the next day, which adds to the following night’s heat, and so on, creating a cycle that can intensify over weeks. The researchers found this occurring increasingly over the past 40 years — even in rural areas, which typically retain less heat overnight than urban zones.

As climate change makes hot droughts more intense and frequent, health risks from heatstroke and heat-related mortality also rise. “There isn’t a good understanding that in a hot drought, you need to take more precaution than if it’s just a heatwave,” Vivoni said. When temperatures stay high through the night, for instance, even hikers and laborers who rise early to beat the heat may be in danger.

Raising awareness about these risks could make communities safer, the researchers said. Monitoring upwind climate conditions could also provide early warnings of hot drought for downwind regions.

Looking forward, the duo would like to create models to examine the physics of how hot drought propagates downwind, rather than making inferences based on observations in upwind and downwind locations. Mondal also hopes to investigate whether the downwind transfer of hot drought occurs in other arid, monsoonal regions, such as the India-Pakistan border.

“Climate doesn’t respect national borders,” Vivoni said. “We’re more interconnected than we thought.”

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Notes for journalists:   

This study is published in Geophysical Research Letters, an open-access AGU journal. View and download a pdf of the study here. Neither this press release nor the study is under embargo.   

Paper title:“Hot Drought of Summer 2023 in Southwestern North America” 

 

Authors:   

  • Somnath Mondal, Institute of Experiential AI, Northeastern University, Portland, Maine, USA; Center for Hydrologic Innovations, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
  • Enrique R. Vivoni, Center for Hydrologic Innovations, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA

 

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