Thursday, November 06, 2025

Armenia: Festering Conflict Between Church And Government – Analysis


Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his wife Anna Hakobyan at the St. Gregory Church in Aruch on June 1. (Photo: primeminister.am)


November 6, 2025 
IDN
By Benoit Lannoo

While President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan is ramping up his claim to the neighbouring country again, the conflict in Armenia between the government of Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church continues to fester.

In recent weeks, Garegin II celebrated the 26th anniversary of his election as Catholicos of All Armenians by the Synod of the Armenian Apostolic Church (on October 27, 1999) and of his enthronement in Etchmiadzin, the ‘Vatican’ of the Armenian Apostolic Church (on November 4, 1999). But it was a celebration in a dire circumstance, since the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Padhinyan, openly advocates for the removal of the Catholicos. Moreover, Garegin’s brother and two of his nephews are behind bars, as are several other Armenian apostolic prelates and priests and many political opponents of PM Pashinyan.

The prosecutors find different charges for each arrest that occurs. Businessperson Samvel Karapetyan was arrested in mid-June because his words “[intervene] in our way ” used during an interview would indicate a “hybrid operation [with the support of Russia]” against Armenia. The Karapetyan family meanwhile has started a political movement under the name ‘Our way’, aiming to weigh in on the parliamentary elections of June next year. Vice chairperson and nephew Narek Karapetyan of Tashir Group, the family’s business empire, was recently questioned about it by the American television ghost Carlson Tucker in an interview that is available on Facebook since Tuesday, November 4.
Archbishops

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, Primate of Tavush, has often spoken out against the government’s policy of giving up the Armenian enclave of Artsakh. That enclave in Azerbaijan was ethnically cleansed by the Azerbaijanis two years ago; there are no Armenians left anymore. Galstanyan’s ‘Tavush for our Fatherland’ movement refuses to accept this: “In Artsakh there is, among other things, the Amaras monastery, which was founded by Gregory the Illuminator and where the holy monk Mesrop Mashtots invented the Armenian alphabet in the early fifth century,” Galstanyan reminded us in November 2023. “Artsakh is ours!” Result: Galstanyan nowadays remains behind bars.

The same goes for the Primate of Shirak, Archbishop Mikael Ażapahjan: the prelate had himself filmed in the courtroom while he was found guilty of an attempted coup and he was sentenced to two years in prison. But Ażapahjan did not give in to the intimidation by Pashinyan & Co. “I don’t understand what makes you participate in such a sham,” he snapped at his judges. “One day, I will be justified. And you will remain guilty. Your children will be ashamed.” In the meantime, Mkrtich Proshyan, Primate of the diocese of Aragatsotn and a nephew of the Catholicos, was also arrested on charges of “obstructing the exercise of the right to vote by abusing an official position”.


Opposition

A brother and another nephew of Catholicos Garegin II were recently arrested with similar accusations. They are no clerics, but politicians in Vagharshapat, the city where Etchmiadzin is located. The number of politicians in jail on the basis of fantasized accusations can no longer be counted on a single hand. Among them, the mayor of Armenia’s second largest city, Gyumri, Vartan Ghukasyan, imprisoned on charges of corruption. His fellow mayor of the smaller town Masis south of Yerevan, Davit Hambardzumjan, was also arrested last month for allegedly attacking protesters against the government in… 2018 (sic).

All those detentions are part of the same clash in Armenian society. What about the loss of Artsakh? What with the so-called peace agreement with Azerbaijan and the so-called thaw in relations with Türkiye? What with the Washington deal of US President Donald Trump of August 8, 2025? And what with the relations with Armenia’s traditional ally, Russia? The former journalist Nikol Pashinyan, who took power with the ‘Velvet Revolution’ in the spring of 2018, was very popular among European neoliberal politicians, such as Boris Johnston in the United Kingdom, Emmanuel Macron in France, or Charles Michel in Belgium. But what has its turn to the West brought to Armenia?
The Artsakh issue

When Pashinyan was re-elected in 2021, he explicitly promised to watch over Armenian territorial sovereignty, including the enclave of Artsakh. As far as the latter is concerned, the PM has not succeeded. Baku did not do what was agreed on with the ceasefire imposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin after the 44-day war, on November 10, 2020. The Azeris had the Laçin corridor, the only access to the enclave, blocked by so-called environmental activists in December 2022. And after nine months of blockade, they suddenly attacked Artsakh again. Putin was already occupying Ukraine at that time; the Russian peacekeepers on the ground in the Caucasus did nothing.

End of September 2023, the last hundred thousand Artsakhis fled the enclave; Azerbaijan had made it sufficiently clear to them that they were no longer safe in their homeland. Meanwhile, international bodies – the European Parliament and many others – explicitly pleaded for their return, but did no more than issuing declarations. However, speaking about Artsakh is annoying of Pashinyan, because the Artsakh issue threatens to complicate his re-election in June 2026. That is why Pashinyan is trying to silence anyone who stirs up the issue. And he shifts attention through deals with his new allies, even though those deals contain de facto the complete surrender of Armenia.
Business deal

Pashinyan indeed surrendered to the American President Donald Trump, who is keen to do business in the region without being disturbed by Russia in the north nor by Iran in the south. That is the purpose of the so-called Zangezur corridor; note that the dealmakers are not even picky enough to name it in Armenian, but that the Azerbaijani name of the southern Armenian province of Syunik is used. In a mood of modesty, the connection from the mainland to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan in Washington was also called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (Tripp).

The American president is not interested in peace, but only in transporting resources from Azerbaijan to the West via Türkeye. The day after the Washington Memorandum of understanding was signed at the White House, Trump was even not able to pronounce correctly the names of the two countries where he had forced ‘peace’: he called them “Albania and Azer-bian”. When in the Oval Office Pashinyan pointed out to him that there are still more than twenty political prisoners from Artsakh in prison in Baku, Trump promised that he would address this issue to his Azerbaijani colleague Ilham Aliyev – “a great leader” because in power for 22 years. Nothing has been heard about it since then.
Coca-Cola

What very well can be heard, is that Aliyev is not at all inclined to curb his aggression towards Armenia, since he was rewarded for that aggression by Donald Trump at the White House. In a speech for the 80th anniversary of the Azerbaijani Academy of Sciences, last Monday, the Baku dictator again called his neighbour “West Azerbaijan” and pretended that “Lake Sevan must become Lake Goycha, because this name figures at an early twelfth-century map from Tsarist Russia”. Aliyev also announced his intention to promote “the return of Azeris to their historic homeland”.

One has to admit that throughout the South Caucasus, Christian Armenians have lived together for a long time with the various Islamic peoples who now make up Azerbaijan. But to claim that Etchmiadzin is on Azeri land – as recently did Sheikh Allahshukur Pashazade of the Muslim Council on the Caucasus – or that even the 2800-year-old Yerevan is an Azeri city – as Aliyev claims it all the time – is of course utter nonsense. The Armenian quip that “Coca-Cola is older than Azerbaijan” is more in line with reality: Azerbaijan was created when the empire of the Tsars fell apart in the early 20th century.
Aliyev

But anti-Armenian resentment is a pillar of the Aliyev regime. Father Heydar Aliyev – a former local Soviet politician – seized power after Azerbaijan was defeated during a previous war with Armenia (1988-94) followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. If the Armenian politicians at that time had concluded a peace agreement in which Azerbaijan is not humiliated, a lot of suffering in the South Caucasus might have been avoided. Since then, however, the Aliyev family has built a strong Azerbaijan with the money they earned with the extraction of the mineral resources under the Caspian Sea, with a ruthless repression of any opposition and with a vehement anti-Armenian rhetoric.

Baku’s superiority is so impressive that Armenia did not stand a chance when Azerbaijan attacked Artsakh in 2020. And without international support, Pashinyan could not make any fist when the Laçin corridor was blocked from December 2022 on, nor when the Azeris attacked the enclave again in September 2023. But you do not win elections by admitting that you are powerless. That explains why Pashinyan tries to sweep the entire Artsakh issue off the table, and why he is totally capitulating for the stronger Presidents Trump in Washington, Aliyev in Baku and Recep Tayyib Erdoğan in Ankara, hoping that economic prosperity can soon satisfy the Armenian electorate.
Ararat

However, the Armenian Apostolic Church continues to bother him. The Church and politicians who lean towards the Church, refuse to forget the past, continue to stand up for the right of return of the hundred thousand refugees from Artsakh, and do not trust at all the neighbouring countries Azerbaijan nor Türkeye. I can understand them, because neither Ankara nor Baku have ever given an inch to the Armenians. In Türkeye, the Armenian genocide of a hundred years ago is still invariably denied. Just as Aliyev continues to claim that the Artsakhis fled the enclave of their own free will two years ago…

But I do not understand why Prime Minister Pashinyan is bringing this conflict to such a head. Why on earth suddenly his government announces that Mount Ararat – the symbol par excellence of Armenian identity, even it is on Turkish territory – will disappear from the visa stamps of those entering Armenia? Why on earth is PM Pashinyan ostentatiously attending the liturgy presided over by a priest who openly apostatizes the Catholicos and who has therefore been suspended by the Armenian apostolic hierarchy? Pashinyan apparently counts on growing popularity by daring to say that Garegin II is not taking his celibacy promise too seriously.
Apathy

“But those rumours about the hypocrisy and luxurious lifestyle of many church leaders are nothing new,” an Armenian language student tells me in Gyumri. “Why rekindle them now, unless to discredit the Armenian Apostolic Church?” And why discredit the Church now? Perhaps because the Church is the only stabilizing and connecting factor in Armenian history, with all the drama that this history entails. To Medz Yeghern (the ‘Great Crime’) of 1915, in which one and a half million Armenians were put to the sword by Turkish extremists, to the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, is now added… the apathy of most of the ordinary Armenian men and women.

The capital Yerevan, where a third of the Armenian population lives, is known for its bling and selfies. Ordinary Armenians try to live an everyday life, far away from nationalist stories about war and humiliation, far away also from the message of the Gospel or from Church institutions. Christianity in Armenia is an identity more than a practice. The PM nowadays seduces only one Armenian voter in five, but the apathy among Armenians is immeasurably greater. And since the opposition remains divided, Pashinyan’s strategy has a chance of success: he spreads division and reinforces the apathy that keeps disappointed people at home when it comes to going to the urns.


Benoit Lannoo is an expert in Communication, Ecumenical, Interfaith & Interreligious Dialogue & Policy Strategies bases in Antwerp (Belgium). He is travelling regularly in Armenia.


IDN

IDN-InDepthNews offers news analyses, features, reports and viewpoints that impact the world and its peoples. It has been online since 2009. Its network spans countries around the world.





God being master, man is the slave." No less than the state, then, religion is the negation of freedom and equality. Thus if God really exists, Bakunin ...

Belgian Court Convicts Two For EU Funds Misuse Linked To Nigel Farage’s Brexit Group


Nigel Farage Photo Credit: Nigel Farage, X

November 6, 2025
EurActiv
By Elisa Braun

(EurActiv) — The UK may have long ago left the European Union, but the legal fallout from Brexit is still rumbling on inside Belgium’s legal machinery.

A criminal court in Brussels on Wednesday convicted two Polish nationals – including a current European Parliament assistant – of misusing EU funds tied to political entities associated with Brexit-backer Nigel Farage.

The verdict marks the culmination of a ten-year case that started in a fierce political battle within the Parliament in the run-up to Brexit, and follows joint efforts by Parliament auditors, the EU’s anti-fraud office (OLAF), and Belgian authorities to probe allegations of misuse of EU funds in support of the campaign for the UK to exit the bloc or alleged personal agenda.

The court said transfers totalling €119,960 lacked any EU-related justification, with one of the defendants using the proceeds to purchase property, two people familiar with the case said.

The two men were ordered to repay a combined sum of more than €100,000 to the Parliament, to pay fines of €90.000 and €72.000 and received suspended prison sentences of 18 and 15 months on charges of money laundering, breach of trust and forgery, the Belgian court said.

One of the convicted, the economist Marian Szolucha, has acted as a financial consultant for a Farage-linked political group, his lawyer Michal Drab said.

The other, Daniel Pawlowiec, was working as a parliamentary assistant for far-right Polish MEP Robert Jarosław Iwaszkiewicz, who had joined Farage’s parliamentary group in 2014.

Pawlowiec is currently listed as an aide to far-right MEP Anna Bryłka, but was suspended in September after prosecutors sought a prison sentence, his lawyer Guillaume Lys said.

It remains unclear whether Pawlowiec will be allowed to return to his role. Both lawyers told Euractiv they are considering an appeal.
Brexit background

The Belgian probe traces back more than a decade to an anonymous tip that triggered a far-reaching probe into the Brussels-based networks orbiting Farage’s UK Independence Party and other populist movements active ahead of Brexit.

In 2014, Belgian authorities received a letter alleging financial wrongdoing by Mischaël Modrikamen, a far-right Belgian lawyer closely linked to Farage through two entities that had received close to €2 million in EU funding.

These were the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe (ADDE) – a pan-European political party of Eurosceptic MEPs, of which Farage’s party was the biggest party – and its affiliated think tank, the Institute for Direct Democracy in Europe (IDDE).

After the Parliament’s auditors raised concerns in 2016 and referred the case to the EU’s anti-fraud office, OLAF, funding for both organisations was frozen because of orders from top members of the institution. ADDE challenged the decision in front of the EU’s general court and won, while IDDE lost its case.

At the same time, the Belgian federal prosecutor’s office opened its own probe.

While Modrikamen and his wife were later cleared, Belgian investigators found about €100,000 had been channelled through UK and Cypriot firms connected to the two groups before reaching the two Polish defendants. Both withdrew the amount in cash in 2015 and 2016, but the Court said they failed to explain why they had chosen to borrow money from these entities and why they still haven’t paid it back in its entirety.

Laure Ferrari, the partner of Nigel Farrage, also appeared in the case because of her role within IDDE, where she first served as a day-to-day manager and later as an executive director beforeresigning.

The case against her was also dismissed, a spokesperson for the Belgian criminal court told Euractiv. Ferrari declined to comment.
Long time coming

“This is a mountain that gave birth to a mouse,” said Lys, the lawyer for Pawlowiec, criticising the length of the investigation.

The defence also noted that no MEPs at the time had their parliamentary immunity lifted during the proceedings, which would have allowed investigators to ask if the withdrawals were part of a potential kick-back scheme.

“This judgment marks the conclusion of a long and complex procedure aimed at protecting the integrity of European public funds and the transparency of political financing,” a spokesperson for the Belgian criminal court said.

Nicolas Lissenko, a lawyer representing the Parliament, however, welcomed the ruling, saying it opened the door for the recovery of misused funds.

OLAF declined to comment on their investigation. A spokesperson for Farage did not comment.



EurActiv

EurActiv publishes free, independent policy news and facilitates open policy debates in 12 languages.

Demographic Crime: How Russia Is Repopulating Occupied Territories – Analysis

IMPERIALISM BY ANY OTHER NAME



November 6, 2025

 IWPR
By Anastasiia Hrubryna


Experts believe that – beginning with the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the seizure of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions – Russia is engaging in a systematic campaign to change the demographic composition of Ukraine’s occupied territories.

This policy involves forcibly deporting Ukrainians to distant parts of Russia while repopulating seized lands with other ethnic groups. Such actions are a flagrant violation of international law, particularly the Fourth Geneva Convention, which protects civilians in wartime.

“We are able to document these cases thanks to our active, concerned citizens in the temporarily occupied territories who provide us with this information,” explained a spokesperson from The National Resistance Centre (NRC), a body created by the Special Operations Forces immediately after the full-scale invasion to support training and coordinating efforts against the occupation of Ukraine.

The spokesperson, who uses the alias Lypa for security reasons, said that most of the investigations into forced demographic changes in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions remained in the pre-trial phase. However, a few cases were now proceeding to court.

Two Russian citizens have been sentenced in absentia to ten years in prison for deporting Ukrainians from the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region. Another trial is also underwayagainst Russian officials and collaborators for the deportation of Ukrainian children from the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.

The main concern is that Russian nationals, brought into Ukraine’s occupied territories, are moving into the homes of Ukrainians whose fates remain unknown. Lypa said that while legal proceedings were underway regarding the settlement of Russians in Ukrainian homes, no court decisions have been made public yet.

“Cities along the Sea of Azov are the most affected by this resettlement,” she continued. “The Russian authorities are marketing this housing and the region as a whole as luxury seaside property, even in places where the buildings are nothing but ruins.”

Lypa highlighted Mariupol as effectively a propaganda tool for the Kremlin, which first claimed to be liberating the city and is now supposedly rebuilding it.

“This is also happening in other cities like Berdiansk, Henichesk, Donetsk and Luhansk. Demographic changes are still underway in these areas, as Ukrainians who have fled the occupied territories find it extremely difficult to prove their property rights to the Russian authorities.”

According to Lypa, Russian authorities frequently declare the homes of Ukrainians ownerless and then seized them for their own purposes.

In other cases, Ukrainians are declared to be enemies of the people, saboteurs or spies for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They may also be told that an attack on the area is imminent and that leaving is necessary.

Lypa said that the largest groups moved into the occupied territories were indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation including Buryats, Ossetians and Dagestanis. Russia uses them as a labour force to rebuild cities.

Russian authorities are also encouraging the so-called educated elite – teachers and doctors – to relocate to the occupied territories.

“There are substantial payments for teachers,” said Lypa. “At first, it was a one-time bonus of one million roubles (12,500 US dollars), which later became two million (25,000 dollars). The salaries are high. They were even given a status equivalent to combat participants with corresponding social benefits packages.”

Cases of repopulation are documented using various information sources, primarily, from the testimonies of Ukrainians living in these areas. Concerned citizens send information about Russian activities to a chatbot for the National Resistance Centre. This information is then verified by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, intelligence services and Special Operations Forces.

“We have a very large network of our own people and resistance members in the temporarily occupied territories. They check and confirm the information. This is how we document these crimes,” said Lypa.

Crimes involving Ukrainians who collaborate with the Russians are investigated as a separate category. Cases where this cooperation was forced and necessary for survival are also taken into consideration.

Holding Russia Accountable

Human rights advocate Serhii Lankin explained that Russia was violating international humanitarian law by moving its own citizens into occupied Ukrainian territories. This action breaches numerous international agreements, including the Fourth Geneva Convention (Article 49), Additional Protocol I (Article 85), the 1907 Hague Convention (IV) and the Rome Statute.

While evicting Russian settlers may appear legally straightforward – as Ukrainian and international law support the restitution of property – the process of holding the Russian occupiers accountable is a much greater challenge.

A precedent can be found in the case of the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) and Serbian paramilitary forces during the ethnic cleansing in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the early 1990s. At that time, thousands of Croats and Muslims were forcibly displaced from their homes. The act was classified as a war crime under Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention.

“Ukraine has already submitted a referral to the International Criminal Court regarding the deportations, particularly of Ukrainian children, and the pressure on Ukrainians in Crimea and other regions as a war crime,” Lankin explained.

Challenges in cooperation extend to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Prior to 2022, the ICC had not opened a single case concerning deportations from Crimea, despite

The Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is investigating Russia’s forced demographic changes as a war crime. However, Ukrainian law currently lacks specific statutes addressing crimes such as deportation, changing the ethnic composition of a region or repopulation.

Vitalii Sekretar, the first deputy head of the Prosecutor’s Office for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, said that investigators were searching for eyewitnesses and victims of repopulation, but that in most cases people who left the occupied territories were afraid to testify about what they have witnessed. These Ukrainian victims primarily fear reprisals from the Russians, either against themselves or their relatives who remain under occupation.

Sekretar said his office’s work was currently focused on deportation cases, adding, “The crime of deportation is unique in that the deportation of even a single person is considered a war crime.”

Investigators have established that 12,000 people were deported from Crimea through court rulings.

“This is a situation where a person was in Crimea but refused to obtain Russian citizenship,” Sekretar said. “Currently, a team of just five prosecutors with specialised experience is handling the investigation into the deportation of Ukrainians from the peninsula.”

To date, they have identified 18 suspects accused of forcing Ukrainians to leave by applying Russian occupation laws, with 15 of these cases sent to court. The Prosecutor’s Office for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea has already secured six convictions for war crimes related to deportation and repopulation – the first such verdicts for Russian crimes in Crimea. All convicted individuals remain at large in the occupied territories or in Russia itself. Most of the suspects are judges – both Ukrainian collaborators who sided with the occupation authorities and Russian nationals appointed to courts in Crimea. Three more suspects were identified in late September 2025.

For the crime of deportation, Russian citizens and Ukrainian collaborators face sentences of ten to 12 years in prison. However, all verdicts issued to date have been in absentia.



About the author: Anastasiia Hrubryna is a journalist at the Vikna-Novyny STB website, focusing on social and political issues, Ukrainian servicemen, and survivors of Russian crimes.


Source: This article was published by IWPR




IWPR

The Institute for War & Peace Reporting is headquartered in London with coordinating offices in Washington, DC and The Hague, IWPR works in over 30 countries worldwide. It is registered as a charity in the UK, as an organisation with tax-exempt status under Section 501(c)(3) in the United States, and as a charitable foundation in The Netherlands. The articles are originally produced by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

 

Scores dead, helicopter crashes as typhoon Kalmaegi hits Philippines

Scores dead, helicopter crashes as typhoon Kalmaegi hits Philippines
/ PAGASA
By bno - Jakarta Office November 5, 2025

Typhoon Kalmaegi, one of the strongest storms to hit the Philippines this year, has claimed at least 46 lives and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes, officials report. The typhoon, locally named Tino, has brought widespread flooding, particularly on the central island of Cebu, where most of the fatalities occurred. Authorities warn that the death toll is likely to rise, Aljazeera reports.

Kalmaegi struck shortly before midnight on November 3, sweeping across the Visayas and affecting areas of Luzon and Mindanao. Communities awoke to rising waters that forced residents onto rooftops as vehicles were swept along roads that turned into rivers. By November 4, the storm was moving westward over Cebu, Negros and Panay, generating sustained winds of around 150 km/h and gusts reaching 185 km/h. Trees were uprooted, electricity poles were toppled and vast areas were left without power.

The storm comes as the Philippines is still grappling with public anger over poorly managed flood control projects and alleged corruption, which critics say have left communities more vulnerable to disasters like Kalmaegi.

OCD Deputy Administrator Rafaelito Alejandro said that most of the casualties were believed to have drowned, with Cebu recording the highest number of deaths at 21. Social media images and video clips revealed towns in Cebu province almost completely submerged. In Talisay City, only the tops of houses were visible. Other footage from Cebu City showed stranded residents calling for rescue as floodwaters rose rapidly. Landslides blocked roads in some areas, including Tabuelan in Cebu, further hampering access for emergency teams.

Fatalities were also reported in neighbouring provinces: a man in Bohol died after being struck by a falling tree, and an elderly resident of Leyte drowned inside his home. The national meteorological agency, PAGASA, said Kalmaegi and an interacting weather system brought intense rain and strong winds to the central archipelago. PAGASA warned of dangerous waves and storm surges, particularly along low-lying coastal zones, with water heights potentially exceeding three metres.

More than 160 flights were cancelled, and maritime authorities instructed vessels to remain in port. While crossing land, the system may weaken slightly due to terrain, yet forecasters expect it to maintain typhoon strength until it exits towards the South China Sea.

In a separate incident, Aljazeera also reports that a military helicopter on a mission to aid typhoon-hit areas crashed in northern Mindanao. The aircraft went down near Loreto in Agusan del Sur. Military officials confirmed that six crew members’ bodies were recovered, and an investigation is underway.

Kalmaegi is the twentieth tropical system to hit the Philippines this year. Climate scientists warn that increasingly intense storms are linked to human-driven climate change, putting the country at continual risk.

Missing in Action: India And ASEAN Summit 2025 – Analysis


The leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) pose for a family picture doing the signature "ASEAN-way" handshake at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on 26 May 2025.

November 4, 2025 
Institute of South Asian Studies

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s absence from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in late October 2025 is an outcome of India’s attempt to salvage its partnership with the United States. However, New Delhi likely did not anticipate its costs on India’s global image.


By Sandeep Bhardwaj

The 47th Summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) concluded in Kuala Lumpur on 28 October 2025. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Chairman of the summit, was keen to elevate ASEAN’s global profile by making it an unmissable multilateral event of the season. Alongside the prime ministers/presidents of the other ASEAN member states and ASEAN’s traditional dialogue partners (Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea), the summit was also attended by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Of course, most attention was focused on the presence of United States (US) President Donald Trump, whom Anwar managed to bring aboard in a successful diplomatic gambit.

The high-powered attendance made Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s absence all the more conspicuous. Modi declined to attend the event in person, speaking virtually instead. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin were also absent – they rarely attend these summits. In contrast, this is the only the second instance of an Indian prime minister skipping an ASEAN summit since India became a summit partner in 2002. Modi also missed the summit in 2022.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs did not offer an explanation. However, it has been widely reported that the decision was made to avoid a face-to-face meeting with Trump. New Delhi and Washington have been locked in a contentious showdown over tariffs in the last few months. The US president has made things more difficult for Modi by repeatedly claiming that he brokered the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May 2025. He has recently also declared that India has agreed to cut its Russian oil purchase. These claims, which the Indian government has denied, put Modi in a politically awkward position.

It is important to note that Modi’s predicament is not the result of his political weakness but his relatively secure domestic position. The opposition remains weak and fractured, and there are no major elections on the horizon apart from the upcoming Bihar polls.

The government’s firm political footing has allowed it to take a softer approach in its crisis with Washington. India has not imposed retaliatory tariffs or taken any other punitive action. Indian officials have largely maintained conciliatory tone in their statements. Nationalistic outrage has been largely kept in check in the public discourse.

This is in contrast to many previous India-US crises when domestic opposition forced the government to take a tougher stance. For instance, when Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade was arrested in New York in 2013, a minor diplomatic row snowballed into a major standoff. A weak United Progressive Alliance government at the time had to act tough against Washington under domestic pressure.

India’s soft approach in the current crisis is only possible as long as domestic opposition does not harden. Trump’s claims contradicting Modi are a major concern because they strengthen the opposition’s hand and put pressure on the government, thereby jeopardising ongoing attempts to salvage the India-US partnership. Therefore, the Indian government has avoided situations that may produce such embarrassing outcomes. It was previously reported that Modi had refused to take calls from Trump in the weeks before the trade negotiations broke down in August 2025.

While this is a sound strategy from a domestic political point of view, New Delhi likely conceived it without taking India’s global image into consideration. It has to be admitted that the decision to skip the summit to avoid Trump is a bad look. It undercuts India’s claim to regional power status. Modi’s absence was not only noted by the ASEAN member countries but was also played up in Pakistani and Chinese media.

India-ASEAN relations were effectively held hostage to the India-US crisis, an outcome that the Indian officials would not have wanted. The situation grates against New Delhi’s pursuit of vaunted strategic autonomy.

Both the US and China used the Kuala Lumpur summit to make substantive progress in their relationships with ASEAN. Trump signed trade deals with Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam, and signalled renewed American commitment to the region. Chinese Premier Li Qiang signed version 3.0 of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area. The first in-person meeting of leaders from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership countries promised to revitalise the trade pact.
Financial software



Meanwhile, progress on the review of ASEAN-Indian Trade in Goods Agreement remains stalled. While Indian officials hoped that the new agreement would be ready to sign by the time of the summit, now it is unlikely to be completed until the end of the year. Modi’s statement at the summit, delivered virtually, was light on new proposals.

It is important to remember why Indian prime ministers – Atal Behari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh and Modi – have attended ASEAN summits so diligently since 2002. At the end of the Cold War, India was considered peripheral to regional multilateralism in this part of the world. It was not included in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation formed in 1989 and only belatedly involved in the ASEAN Regional Forum established in 1997. ASEAN Plus Three (including China, Japan and South Korea) emerged in 1997, once again leaving India out. Even India’s inclusion in the East Asia Summit in 2005 was contested by China, which claimed that it did not belong in the region.

It has taken consistent efforts for several years for India to signal its intent to remain a consistent, reliable and engaged partner to ASEAN. Although skipping a single summit is unlikely to change that, allowing India’s relations with great powers to unduly influence its relationship with the ASEAN might.


About the author: Dr Sandeep Bhardwaj is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). He can be contacted at sbhardwaj@nus.edu.sg. The author bears full responsibility for the facts cited and opinions expressed in this paper.

Source: This article was published by Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)


Institute of South Asian Studies

The Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) was established in July 2004 as an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). ISAS is dedicated to research on contemporary South Asia. The Institute seeks to promote understanding of this vital region of the world, and to communicate knowledge and insights about it to policy makers, the business community, academia and civil society, in Singapore and beyond.

Defence conglomerate Czechoslovak Group acquires Serbian drone tech company MUST Solutions

Defence conglomerate Czechoslovak Group acquires Serbian drone tech company MUST Solutions
CSG has been on a shopping spree propelled by its boosted sales following the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as well as armed conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. / Czechoslovak Group
By Albin Sybera in Prague November 5, 2025

Regional defence and heavy machinery conglomerate Czechoslovak Group (CSG) expanded into the Unmanned Aerial Systems sector by acquiring a majority of MUST Solutions, Serbian producer of propulsion systems for drones.

“The acquisition of MUST Solutions represents the first tangible step in implementing our UAS strategy, which we announced with the establishment of AviaNera Technologies,” CSG owner Michal Strnad commented in the company press release.

“Our goal is to acquire cutting-edge technologies and know-how in the field of propulsion systems, which are a key component—and often a bottleneck—in the development and production of modern unmanned platforms,” Strnad added.

CSG acquired 51% of MUST Solutions, founded and owned by Vladimir Jazarević, through its AviaNera Technologies. The financial details of the transaction have not been disclosed.  

CSG has been on a shopping spree propelled by its boosted sales following the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as well as armed conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.

On its home market in Czechia, CSG also acquired the Zlín-based producer of hydraulic systems Hydraulics, Czech online news outlet Seznam Zprávy reported.

As bne IntelliNews reported last month, CSG could also be ending its rows with Promet Group inside its key Czech army supplier Tatra Trucks in a push to list CSG on the Amsterdam or Prague Stock Exchange. 

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

 

Foreign companies pay Russia $60bn in taxes since Ukraine invasion

Foreign companies pay Russia $60bn in taxes since Ukraine invasion
/ Astemir Almov - Unsplash
By bne IntelliNews November 4, 2025

Foreign companies in Russia paid at least $20bn (€17.2bn) in taxes in 2024 alone, and cumulative tax payments since early 2022 exceed $60bn (€51.8 bn), according to Euronews citing a joint report by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), B4Ukraine and the Squeezing Putin Initiative.

In particular, German companies have paid €1.7bn ($1.87bn) in taxes in Russia  to the Russian government since the start of the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine. 

As followed closely by bne IntelliNews,  23 international firms fully liquidated their Russian operations between July and September 2025, the highest quarterly total since 2022.

However, over two thirds of Western companies still operating in Russia have no plans to exit the market, citing long-term growth potential despite continued pressure from sanctions

The report cited by Euronews singles out Germany, noting that some 250 German companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war, representing more than half of the German firms present in the country before the invasion. 

Most of them work in fast‑moving consumer goods (FMCG), building materials, and other sectors not covered by direct sanctions. These include dairy‑product manufacturer Hochland Group still operating three plants in Russia, or building‑materials producer Knauf continuing to have operations there despite public scrutiny. 

The report stresses that about $60 bn collected since 2022 is roughly equivalent to half of Russia’s estimated defence budget for 2025. 

Beyond the tax‑flow issue, other risks include the supply‑chain links, spillovers from access to technology, and local investments that keep foreign firms embedded in the Russian market, all of which may indirectly bolster Russia’s war‑economy infrastructure.

Knauf Group denied and rejected accusations of supplying materials to Russia’s defence sector, but acknowledged the complexity of supervising downstream users. 

Euronews also reminds of the tougher exit regulations on foreign companies.

Namely, Hochland argues they cannot withdraw easily without harming employees or handing more control to the Russian state, invoking “responsibility toward our roughly 1,800 employees and their families” in Russia. 

As a reminder, a special government commission approves any foreign asset sale (at a minimum discount of 50%) and the government has set additional “exit taxes” for companies pulling out of Russia and their new local beneficiaries. 

In October 2024 Russia had put more strain on foreign companies still operating in the country and raised the “exit tax” from the current level of 15% of the market value of the assets to 35%. 

In addition, the minimum discount for such deals was increased to at least 60% from previous 50%, while deals worth more than RUB50bn have to be approved by the president in addition to approval by a special government commission on foreign investment.

 

Serbia braces for clashes as Kosovo Serbs join protests in Belgrade

Serbia braces for clashes as Kosovo Serbs join protests in Belgrade
/ Gavrilo Andric via Instagram
By Tatyana Kekic in Belgrade November 5, 2025

Serbian authorities prepared for potential clashes on November 5 as groups of Serbs from Kosovo arrived in Belgrade after a week-long march toward Novi Sad, joining pro-government demonstrators calling for an end to over a year of student-led blockades and anti-government protests.

Tensions have escalated outside the Serbian parliament over the past three nights, where pro- and anti-government demonstrators clashed, throwing flares and other objects. Police in riot gear and gendarmes have been deployed in large numbers around Pionirski Park and the parliament precinct.

The unrest follows a massive rally in Novi Sad on November 1 marking the first anniversary of a canopy collapse at the city’s railway station that killed 16 people. The tragedy sparked year-long protests demanding government accountability and anti-corruption reforms, largely led by students.

The government appeared to risk further escalation by bussing in supporters from across the country on November 5 to welcome the Kosovo marchers outside the Serbian parliament. Opposition media reported that the buses were mainly filled with elderly citizens and young men employed in state companies. Danas reported that Roma communities were transported on separate buses, alleging they were unfairly segregated.

Meanwhile, hunger-striking mother Diana Hrka, whose son died in the Novi Sad collapse, continued appealing for calm among students and anti-government demonstrators, urging citizens not to provoke violence. Prince Filip Karađorđević of Serbia also called for her to end the strike.

President Aleksandar Vucic, facing calls for early elections, dismissed claims that the government was orchestrating a large counter-protest in Belgrade but confirmed a reception for Kosovo marchers in Pionirski Park.