For U.S. nuclear energy future, fuel supply cannot be overlooked
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U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, chair of the House Energy & Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee, opened the Stanford-led Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable with a keynote address.
view moreCredit: Courtesy Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford
The vision of a U.S. nuclear power renaissance has a blind spot – uranium fuel – in the near term and long, according to a Stanford University-led industry meeting.
AI data centers, reshoring of manufacturing, and the electrification of transportation, buildings and other sectors have heightened demand for affordable, reliable power around the clock. Nuclear energy could check those boxes, its proponents say, but supplies of enriched uranium for existing power plants are tight, vulnerable to geopolitics, and getting more expensive. New fuel forms for advanced reactors, meanwhile, offer promise, but scaling them affordably and in parallel with conventional fuel systems could squeeze conventional fuel markets even more.
Over 100 leaders across the nuclear fuel sector, utility executives, government regulators, and reactor designers and developers gathered in July in Arlington, Virginia, to examine these barriers and identify possible ways to overcome them. The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable was organized by STEER, an initiative of Stanford University’s Precourt Institute for Energy and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. Congressman Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), chair of the House Energy & Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee, opened the discussion with a keynote address.
On Dec. 29, Nature Energy published a summary of the insights that emerged from the meeting. The Trump administration has been moving to strengthen the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain. On Jan. 5, the U.S. Department of Energy announced $2.7 billion in contracts to three domestic fuel enrichment companies for conventional reactors and next-generation reactors now in development.
“As in any hard-tech sector, investment enthusiasm can often be driven by exuberance,” said the founder and team lead of STEER, Adrian Yao, who spearheaded the roundtable. “We sought to focus on the fuel supply chain while much of recent private investment activity has been focused on current- and next-generation reactors amid this new nuclear groundswell. Specifically, our objective is to identify ‘what must be true’ for the fuel supply chain to support the growing demand.”
STEER, which is funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, analyzes emerging energy technologies from supply chains to deployment roadmaps in order to inform what to build, where to innovate, and how to invest. The Precourt Institute is part of the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.
Conventional nuclear fuel
Immediate growth in nuclear power production – like last year’s announcement of restarting a Three Mile Island Nuclear Generation Station reactor – depends on the deeply international supply chain for nuclear fuel. That chain has four links:
- mining the uranium;
- converting it to a gas form;
- enriching it to increase the fissile U-235;
- and fabricating uranium pellets and fuel rods for shipment to nuclear power plants.
The industry discussion stressed that several links in this chain are at risk. Four countries dominate mining: Kazakhstan, Namibia, Australia, and Canada. The United States mines very little uranium, due to lower-grade ore and higher costs. While most meeting participants did not express strong concerns about mining due to friendly partners, some stressed the importance of rebuilding U.S. domestic mining, highlighting uranium as a critical mineral. Also, the largest producer – Kazakhstan – continues to seek strategic autonomy from its interdependence on Russia and, increasingly, China. This may be viewed as an opportunity for the United States.
Only five facilities worldwide convert mined uranium on a large scale into the gas needed for enrichment. This step may pose one of the most critical pinch-points in the supply chain. Markets for these services have been turbulent in recent years, with price dips and spikes forcing western plants into shutdown and restart cycles. Stockpiles of converted uranium gas are shrinking. Without big, long-term contracts, conversion company executives at the July roundtable expressed hesitation to expand capacity.
Uranium buyers, meanwhile, are reluctant to pen long-term agreements inflated by today’s high prices. Even when buyers are prepared to sign, the incremental demand is significantly less than the stepwise supply added by capacity expansions. To break this deadlock, several meeting participants suggested that U.S. federal and state governments could act as customers of last resort for new facilities.
“This could provide the payment certainty required for investment in new conversion capacity,” said Yao, PhD ’25.
Enrichment, the third stage of the nuclear fuel supply chain, remains heavily concentrated: Nearly half of global capacity is in Russia, with only two major commercial enrichers operating in the United States and western Europe. This poses a strategic challenge for the United States, which relies on Russia for nearly 30% of its enriched uranium supply. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Congress passed legislation in 2024 to ban enriched uranium imports from Russia. Several European countries are also working to reduce their dependence on Russian fuel.
The United States is self-sufficient only in the final fourth step of the conventional fuel supply chain: making ceramic pellets from enriched uranium and producing fuel rod assemblies. Meeting attendees generally agreed, however, that for national and economic security the United States should develop capacity across the entire supply chain for conventional reactors.
The U.S. ban on enriched uranium from Russia sparked some interest in investment to do just this, but the investments stalled due to concerns about the ban’s effectiveness and durability. For example, waivers can be granted if alternatives to Russian supplies are insufficient, and Russia may be able to circumvent the ban via other countries.
“Many participants suggested that China could circumvent the ban by ‘flag swapping’ Russian uranium in U.S. markets,” said Bennett Johnson, MBA ’24/MS ’25, a co-author of the report and STEER’s strategic partnerships lead. “Other participants questioned how long the political support for the ban would last. Investors want some certainty that it would last at least 10 years.”
Next-generation reactors
The meeting turned its attention to next-generation fission reactors now mostly in development, generally known as “Gen IV.” Fuel for these new generators will need a much higher degree of enrichment. One ton of Gen IV nuclear fuel is estimated to require almost 40 tons of mined uranium, compared to less than 10 tons for conventional nuclear fuel. Those higher degrees of enrichment translate into fuel that generates electricity for a longer time, so the impact on mined uranium is less severe than four to one. Still, fuel suppliers at the roundtable said that without significant additional mining, conversion, and enrichment capacity, next-generation reactors could further stress uranium supplies for the existing nuclear fleet, already burdened with high fuel costs.
Reactor designers and fuel manufacturers working on next-generation advanced reactors noted that the complexity and limited commercial experience with new fuel forms could lead to low fabrication yields and high costs.
Access to test reactors, critical for validating fuel performance and refining manufacturing specifications, is limited, the designers and fuel manufacturers emphasized. Today the only operating Gen IV reactor is in China. Standardization of chemistries and fuel specifications, particularly through coordination between reactor designers and fuel fabricators, was proposed to accelerate the fuel manufacturing learning curve.
Broadly, the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable highlighted the need to reduce technological, economic, and policy uncertainty throughout the nuclear fuel supply chain to stimulate growth. Primary avenues for doing so potentially include strategic global partnerships and coordination of fuel standards; additional clarity on enforcement of geopolitical policy actions, like the ban on uranium from Russia; R&D to support efficient and low-cost manufacturing of nuclear fuels for advanced reactors; and independent and timely analysis.
“Combining Stanford’s convening power with our impartial investigation enables us to help answer ‘what to build, where to innovate, and how to invest’ while being grounded in the realities of deployment,” said William Chueh, director of the Precourt Institute, as well as the Kimmelman professor of materials science and energy science at Stanford, and of photon science at SLAC.
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TVA spearheads University of Tennessee Nuclear Engineering Endowment
University of Tennessee at Knoxville
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Exterior photo of the Zeanah Engineering Complex on the University of Tennessee, Knoxville campus.
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The Tennessee Valley Authority has invested $3 million to endow the chair of the University of Tennessee, Knoxville’s Department of Nuclear Engineering. The endowment will advance academic excellence, workforce development and faculty recruitment within the department, which is ranked No. 3 among universities nationwide, and will further solidify UT’s position as a leader in shaping the future of nuclear energy.
“This investment from Tennessee Valley Authority is a testament to both the strength of UT’s nuclear engineering program and the importance of the nuclear energy sector to our region,” said Chancellor Donde Plowman. “We are grateful to have an industry leader like TVA investing in our expertise and working alongside us to grow Tennessee’s talent pipeline, drive innovation and help build East Tennessee’s nuclear renaissance.”
The partnership between UT and TVA, the nation’s largest public power provider, reflects a shared vision for advancing clean energy solutions and strengthening East Tennessee’s role as a hub for nuclear innovation. It builds on UT’s long-standing commitment to advancing reactor technology, regulatory science and safety culture while preparing students through hands-on learning and cutting-edge research.
“TVA’s endowment of the nuclear engineering department chair at the University of Tennessee is a strategic investment in America’s energy future,” said TVA President and CEO Don Moul. “By supporting the development of a highly skilled homegrown nuclear workforce, we’re ensuring that TVA and our industry partners have access to the talent needed to meet the growing demands of the nuclear sector in East Tennessee and across the Valley. This partnership will help train the next generation of engineers, researchers and technicians while strengthening the pipeline of innovation and leadership that will power our region for decades to come.”
Advancing excellence in nuclear engineering
The collaboration with TVA is vital to meeting the growing demands of the nuclear industry and the workforce needed to sustain it. Brian Wirth, UT-Oak Ridge National Laboratory Governor’s Chair for Computational Nuclear Engineering and the inaugural chair of the Department of Nuclear Engineering, plans to leverage the endowment to hire world-class instructional faculty and deepen UT’s partnership with TVA.
“This is an incredible opportunity to expand our collaboration with TVA and train engineers who will help realize TVA’s commitment to bringing a substantial amount of new nuclear power to the grid,” Wirth said. “With this endowment, we can become a major support source for the workforce TVA is going to need to build new nuclear power plants.”
TVA currently operates three nuclear power plants capable of generating an average of 8,275 megawatts of electricity each day — enough to power more than 4.5 million homes and businesses — and nuclear power makes up about 42% of TVA’s diversified energy generation portfolio. In addition, TVA is leading groundbreaking initiatives at its Clinch River nuclear site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, where it is pursuing the development of small modular reactors to produce new nuclear energy.
East Tennessee: A hub for nuclear energy
East Tennessee has become an epicenter for nuclear research and innovation, with numerous nuclear energy companies moving to the area and constructing power-generating demonstration plants, reactors and uranium enrichment facilities to help fulfill the nation’s growing clean energy needs.
As part of a strategy to position the state as a leader in nuclear innovation, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee created the Nuclear Energy Fund, which has provided more than $60 million for the advancement of nuclear technologies.
With the support of the fund, UT launched a nuclear engineering minor in 2024 to better prepare students for careers in the nuclear industry and to meet industry demands. Moul, through his role on the Department of Nuclear Engineering Board of Advisors, provided input on the needs and requirements of the minor, bolstering the collaboration between UT and TVA.
Investing in the future
For more than 90 years, TVA has been at the forefront of delivering reliable energy while supporting environmental stewardship and driving economic development. The endowment strengthens this legacy by investing in the future of clean energy innovation and by empowering UT students, faculty and industry partners to develop advanced nuclear technologies and a skilled workforce capable of addressing global energy challenges. Together, TVA and UT are shaping a sustainable and secure energy system that will benefit generations to come.
“The college is grateful for the partnership with TVA and this remarkable endowment, which guarantees sustained excellence in leadership for our nuclear engineering program,” said Matthew Mench, Tickle College of Engineering dean and Wayne T. Davis Dean’s Chair. “TVA’s investment equips the nuclear department with vital resources to continue to provide a world-class education in a field that is instrumental to the future of our state, region and country.”
