FOUR DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION
Jason Kenney's COVID crisis hits federal election campaign trail
© Provided by National Post Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole avoided speaking directly about Alberta's COVID crisis when asked about it on Thursday.
OTTAWA – The Liberals used Jason Kenney’s dramatic reversal on public health rules to make COVID-19 management central to the campaign Thursday, while Conservative leader Erin O’Toole avoided even saying the Alberta premier’s name.
After having declared Alberta “open for business” and “open for good” earlier this year, Kenney was forced to reverse course Wednesday evening, re-imposing mask mandates and imposing a vaccine passport system.
Liberal leader Justin Trudeau said the federal government would offer any support it could and has sent ventilators and other resources to the province. But he also said Kenney’s choice had helped create the situation in Alberta.
“The choices that leaders make in a crisis matter. Half measures won’t do to fight this pandemic, to keep people safe, to prevent further lockdowns,” Trudeau said at an event Thursday in Montreal.
Kenney was forced to act by a hospital system under severe strain. The province has already created additional ICU spaces, but even those new spaces are now nearly 90 per cent full. The province has more ICU patients than it has ever had and is starting to look to other provinces in the hope they can take patients.
Alberta relaxed restrictions more quickly and more thoroughly than other provinces. Kenney admitted Wednesday he had been too optimistic about the path of the pandemic in July. Health Minister Patty Hajdu wrote a letter raising concerns about Alberta’s approach in early August, which drew a swift rebuke from Kenney who said his United Conservative Party wouldn’t be lectured by Hajdu.
OTTAWA – The Liberals used Jason Kenney’s dramatic reversal on public health rules to make COVID-19 management central to the campaign Thursday, while Conservative leader Erin O’Toole avoided even saying the Alberta premier’s name.
After having declared Alberta “open for business” and “open for good” earlier this year, Kenney was forced to reverse course Wednesday evening, re-imposing mask mandates and imposing a vaccine passport system.
Liberal leader Justin Trudeau said the federal government would offer any support it could and has sent ventilators and other resources to the province. But he also said Kenney’s choice had helped create the situation in Alberta.
“The choices that leaders make in a crisis matter. Half measures won’t do to fight this pandemic, to keep people safe, to prevent further lockdowns,” Trudeau said at an event Thursday in Montreal.
Kenney was forced to act by a hospital system under severe strain. The province has already created additional ICU spaces, but even those new spaces are now nearly 90 per cent full. The province has more ICU patients than it has ever had and is starting to look to other provinces in the hope they can take patients.
Alberta relaxed restrictions more quickly and more thoroughly than other provinces. Kenney admitted Wednesday he had been too optimistic about the path of the pandemic in July. Health Minister Patty Hajdu wrote a letter raising concerns about Alberta’s approach in early August, which drew a swift rebuke from Kenney who said his United Conservative Party wouldn’t be lectured by Hajdu.
Alberta imposes provincewide COVID restrictions, vaccine passport system as cases surge
Trudeau said O’Toole’s support for Kenney’s approach is a clear sign the Conservatives would prolong the pandemic unnecessarily.
“Just a few days ago, Mr Toole was still applauding Mr. Kenny, for his management of the pandemic.”
One of Trudeau’s Liberal candidates, George Chalal in Calgary Skyview, released a campaign ad on social media of comments O’Toole made last year, saying Kenney had navigated the pandemic better than the federal government and that, “the federal Conservatives can learn a lot from our UCP cousins.”
O’Toole was asked repeatedly Thursday morning if he stood by his support for Kenney’s COVID management, but his answers didn’t even mention Alberta, instead focusing on Trudeau’s election call.
“The fact that we’re in an election, a $600 million election because of Mr. Trudeau’s own political interest shows that he’s not going to put the health and economic needs of the country first. Canada’s conservatives will,” O’Toole said.
O’Toole suggested the money being spent on the election would be better served going into the provinces. He said Trudeau has been an adversary to provincial governments far too often.
“I will be there as the wing man to the provinces to fight COVID-19 and to secure our future.”
An Alberta Conservative MP, who spoke on background, said their constituents were still focused on removing the Liberal government, even as they were angry with Kenney.
“I’ve found a number of people who are really upset with our provincial premier, but they also seem very determined to remove Justin Trudeau as prime minister.”
Zain Velji, an Alberta political strategist and partner at the Northweather agency, said it was a major setback for the Conservatives and a potential game changer. He said even in the most charitable interpretation it knocked O’Toole’s team off their message.
“They can’t deny the fact that this is not what Erin O’Toole wants to talk about in these critical final days of the campaign. At the very least, it takes him away from his message and his closing arguments against Trudeau,” he said.
Velji said it probably did not open up any new seats for the Liberals Alberta, but linking bad COVID management to O’Toole could hurt him elsewhere in the country. He said the Liberals just had to ensure they were not overplaying their hand.
“My concern for them is always that they get too ham fisted and lose the subtlety and it just becomes crass.”
Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, said the province was in a real crisis and O’Toole was on record supporting the man who led Alberta to this point.
“We’ve got 50 per cent of all COVID cases in Canada in this province with 15 per cent of the population. And there are clips of O’Toole, praising Jason Kenney,” he said.
Bratt said unlike the Liberals’ attempts to invoke the ghost of Stephen Harper, linking O’Toole to Kenney was a much easier sell to Canadians and one the Conservatives had to be afraid of.
He said there were only a handful of ridings in Alberta directly in play and they likely became closer contests after Kenney’s announcement.
“We already knew that Jason Kenney unpopularity was hurting the federal Conservatives in those ridings, and yesterday didn’t help that.”
Ryan Tumilty
POSTMEDIA
• Email: rtumilty@postmedia.com | Twitter: ryantumilty
For NDP, an improved election turnout depends on unlikeliest of factors: support for Erin O’Toole
John Ivison: Jagmeet Singh's crafted play on 'selfish' Trudeau may serve NDP well in election
Leger, meanwhile, puts the Conservatives and the Liberals in a dead heat at 33 per cent, with the NDP at 21 per cent.
“The fact that Erin O’Toole doesn’t look particularly threatening might actually give pause for thought for NDP voters in terms of what is the best play for them,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at polling firm Leger.
That has in turn blunted Trudeau’s ability to scare would-be NDP supporters into voting Liberal based on their common preference for higher levels of economic interventions and debt-financed spending.
“When the polling says it’s tied, it’s hard to say: ‘Be careful, these guys are going to win,’” Enns said.
In 2019, the final days of the Liberal campaign were almost exclusively focussed on warning voters about a Conservative government. In a campaign stop in Whitby, Ont., just days before the election, Trudeau warned about retrenchment under a possible Conservative government.
“Between now and Monday, here’s what people in Ontario need to ask themselves: are you ready for even more harmful Conservative cuts, cuts that would be four times larger than Doug Ford’s?”
Scheer had himself said he would win a majority, fending off questions about how he could form government when other parties said they would refuse to work with a Conservative minority.
According to Leger polling, NDP supporters are by far most likely to vote Liberal as their second option, with 36 per cent of NDP respondents saying they would support Trudeau. The next-most popular party for their second choice was the Green Party, at 18 per cent.
The NDP-Liberal swing runs both ways: among Liberal voters, the NDP was by far the most popular second choice, with 51 per cent of respondents. The next-most popular was the Conservatives at 13 per cent.
Still, it’s unclear how many NDP voters are willing to switch ballots this election, according to the Leger poll, where 72 per cent said they were not likely to change, compared with just 19 per cent saying they would “likely” switch. The remaining nine per cent said they did not know.
• Email: rtumilty@postmedia.com | Twitter: ryantumilty
For NDP, an improved election turnout depends on unlikeliest of factors: support for Erin O’Toole
© Provided by National Post NDP leader Jagmeet Singh greets supporters during a campaign stop in Oshawa, Ontario. In a recent Leger poll, 72 per cent of NDP voters said they were not likely to switch their vote this election.
OTTAWA — The NDP have been riding high on the popularity of leader Jagmeet Singh, polling near historic highs just days out from the election. But another, less obvious, factor might provide an additional boost: a Conservative Party that’s lagging in the polls.
Analysts are constantly weighing the impact of strategic voting in a campaign, which tends to be motivated by keeping an opponent out of power rather than getting a preferred candidate in.
In recent Canadian elections, strategic voters have largely consisted of leakage between Liberal-NDP supporters. That appears to have been the case in the 2019 election, when former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer was leading in many polls just days before the election, and as some observers were speculating that a Conservative majority wasn’t entirely out of the question.
Polling data largely tracked with the final result: Scheer won the popular vote at 34 per cent, but lost the election to the Liberals. The biggest surprise was a diminished turnout for the NDP, which was several points below expectations, winning just 24 seats. But that support base could hold up better in the current campaign.
Analysts have said that the 2019 fallout was likely motivated by fears among NDP supporters at the prospect of Scheer becoming prime minster, made all the more pronounced by his more traditional views on social issues like abortion. This election, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole has put forward a more socially-progressive platform, including new spending on childcare and a promise to boost the Canada Health Transfer.
Perhaps more to the point, O’Toole is polling slightly behind Liberal leader Justin Trudeau across most national surveys. The latest Nanos polling has O’Toole at 30.3 per cent, trailing Trudeau by 1.6 points. The same poll has the NDP at 21.2 per cent, on the higher edge of its margin of support since August.
OTTAWA — The NDP have been riding high on the popularity of leader Jagmeet Singh, polling near historic highs just days out from the election. But another, less obvious, factor might provide an additional boost: a Conservative Party that’s lagging in the polls.
Analysts are constantly weighing the impact of strategic voting in a campaign, which tends to be motivated by keeping an opponent out of power rather than getting a preferred candidate in.
In recent Canadian elections, strategic voters have largely consisted of leakage between Liberal-NDP supporters. That appears to have been the case in the 2019 election, when former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer was leading in many polls just days before the election, and as some observers were speculating that a Conservative majority wasn’t entirely out of the question.
Polling data largely tracked with the final result: Scheer won the popular vote at 34 per cent, but lost the election to the Liberals. The biggest surprise was a diminished turnout for the NDP, which was several points below expectations, winning just 24 seats. But that support base could hold up better in the current campaign.
Analysts have said that the 2019 fallout was likely motivated by fears among NDP supporters at the prospect of Scheer becoming prime minster, made all the more pronounced by his more traditional views on social issues like abortion. This election, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole has put forward a more socially-progressive platform, including new spending on childcare and a promise to boost the Canada Health Transfer.
Perhaps more to the point, O’Toole is polling slightly behind Liberal leader Justin Trudeau across most national surveys. The latest Nanos polling has O’Toole at 30.3 per cent, trailing Trudeau by 1.6 points. The same poll has the NDP at 21.2 per cent, on the higher edge of its margin of support since August.
John Ivison: Jagmeet Singh's crafted play on 'selfish' Trudeau may serve NDP well in election
Leger, meanwhile, puts the Conservatives and the Liberals in a dead heat at 33 per cent, with the NDP at 21 per cent.
“The fact that Erin O’Toole doesn’t look particularly threatening might actually give pause for thought for NDP voters in terms of what is the best play for them,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at polling firm Leger.
That has in turn blunted Trudeau’s ability to scare would-be NDP supporters into voting Liberal based on their common preference for higher levels of economic interventions and debt-financed spending.
“When the polling says it’s tied, it’s hard to say: ‘Be careful, these guys are going to win,’” Enns said.
In 2019, the final days of the Liberal campaign were almost exclusively focussed on warning voters about a Conservative government. In a campaign stop in Whitby, Ont., just days before the election, Trudeau warned about retrenchment under a possible Conservative government.
“Between now and Monday, here’s what people in Ontario need to ask themselves: are you ready for even more harmful Conservative cuts, cuts that would be four times larger than Doug Ford’s?”
Scheer had himself said he would win a majority, fending off questions about how he could form government when other parties said they would refuse to work with a Conservative minority.
According to Leger polling, NDP supporters are by far most likely to vote Liberal as their second option, with 36 per cent of NDP respondents saying they would support Trudeau. The next-most popular party for their second choice was the Green Party, at 18 per cent.
The NDP-Liberal swing runs both ways: among Liberal voters, the NDP was by far the most popular second choice, with 51 per cent of respondents. The next-most popular was the Conservatives at 13 per cent.
Still, it’s unclear how many NDP voters are willing to switch ballots this election, according to the Leger poll, where 72 per cent said they were not likely to change, compared with just 19 per cent saying they would “likely” switch. The remaining nine per cent said they did not know.
Jesse Snyder
POSTMEDIA
• Email: jsnyder@postmedia.com | Twitter: jesse_snyder
.
• Email: jsnyder@postmedia.com | Twitter: jesse_snyder
.
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