Kitty Donaldson
Mon, October 17, 2022
Liz Truss’s UK premiership hangs in the balance after she was forced to abandon large swathes of her economic agenda and ditch her chancellor following a market rout.
Read More: Hunt to Set Out UK Fiscal Plans as Tories Move Against Truss
Amid the fallout, the opposition Labour party has opened up a record lead in opinion polls and Truss herself has posted the worst approval ratings ever for a UK leader.
Tory MPs are openly moving against the 47-year-old prime minister even though party rules in theory offer her protection from a leadership challenge for a year. What happens next may hinge on how quickly the party can forge a consensus on who should replace her.
Below is a guide to how the party deals with leaders it wants rid of.
Shaping History
The fate of Tory prime ministers is determined by rank-and-file Conservative MPs known as the 1922 Committee. It takes its name from a meeting of Tory lawmakers 100 years ago that ultimately brought down a coalition government and led to the Conservatives winning the ensuing election.
“The ’22” has continued to play a key role in Tory history. While Margaret Thatcher’s demise in 1990 was prompted by her deputy premier quitting, it was her ministers’ advice that she wouldn’t survive a second 1922 committee ballot on her leadership that made her withdraw. Her reference to “men in gray suits” calling on her to stand aside is now often used describe the ‘22.
During her successor John Major’s tenure, the group embodied Tory opposition to closer ties with Europe. David Cameron -- who ultimately called the Brexit referendum -- wanted to dilute its influence by opening up its membership. He failed. Graham Brady was elected chairman and has has held the job since.
Eyes on Brady
Nowadays the ’22 is primarily a line of communication between the party leadership and the rank-and-file. Reporters gather outside the committee’s weekly meetings to try to gauge the mood by the volume of desk-thumping. When an unhappy Tory MP wants a change in party leadership, it’s Brady they write to.
In normal times, it requires 15% of Conservative lawmakers to trigger a confidence vote and in the current parliament that means 54. The existing rules protect Truss from a leadership challenge for the first 12 months in office, but they can be changed in response to a groundswell of opinion within the parliamentary party.
Nobody except Brady knows how many letters have been submitted at any given time. On Sunday, a person close to the committee was playing down rumors that more than a 100 letters may already have been submitted.
Next Steps
The ’22 is due to meet again on Wednesday. That’s the earliest point they could consider changing the rules, though once they do reach a decision, it’s a quick and straightforward process. The prime minister’s opponents will be trying to build momentum ahead of that appointment.
It’s likely that the committee will want more than 54 letters in order to change the rules. So if they do announce that shift, a confidence vote is likely to follow shortly afterward.
Once a vote is triggered, Brady would inform Truss and the parliamentary Conservative party, and a vote on his leadership would be held as soon as possible.
At this point, it seems difficult to imagine that Truss could survive such a vote. But even if she did, it would most likely only delay the inevitable. Both Boris Johnson and Theresa May, her most immediate predecessors, were forced out of office within months of winning a confidence vote.
There’s another way the Tories could arrive at a leadership contest: Truss’s cabinet could effectively take matters into its own hands. If enough members resign, or perhaps one of the two biggest names, that would signal they have lost confidence. The pressure could then make Truss’s position untenable.
Leadership Contest
If Truss were to lose a confidence vote, or if she accepts that her authority has gone and simply resigns, the next step would be a third Tory leadership contest since 2019.
Under the current rules, Conservative MPs whittle down the candidates to a final two and then grassroots Tory members make the final choice. But again, MPs are unhappy with that system after the debacle of Truss, who only just sneaked into the final round.
There’s a strong feeling among MPs that they need to avoid letting the members choose another prime minister. One way around that would be to put forward a single candidate, but with so many rival factions within the party, Truss’s opponents are struggling to forge a consensus on who should be next.
Next in Line?
Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak was beaten by Truss in last summer’s leadership contest, in which he warned, prophetically, that her economic policy plans would trigger chaos in financial markets. There is talk that he could form an alliance with Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the House of Commons, who finished third in the race.
Ben Wallace, the defense secretary, saw his stock rise during the war in Ukraine and is another name who has been touted, though he’s said he doesn’t want the job. Jeremy Hunt, who was parachuted in as chancellor last Friday, has been burnishing his credentials as a safe pair of hands on the economy. He says that after losing out in the last two leadership contests, his time has gone. Steve Brine, a Tory MP and an ally of the chancellor, said last week that it’s no secret that he had wanted the job in the past.
Tory MP says his constituents are 'frightened' of Liz Truss's government
James Cheng-Morris
·Freelance news writer, Yahoo UK
Sun, October 16, 2022
Tory MP Robert Halfon said of Liz Truss: 'The biggest problem is not that my constituents are angry at the government but some of them are actually frightened.' (PA)
A Tory MP has said his constituents are “frightened” of Liz Truss’s government.
Robert Halfon, a senior backbencher, said the prime minister has “played into” the Conservative stereotype of being the party for the rich.
It comes amid the ongoing economic turmoil sparked by the prime minister and ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous “growth plan” announced in the mini-budget only three weeks ago.
The mini-budget contained £43bn of unfunded tax cuts, including for people earning more than £150,000 and large corporations. It sparked market chaos, including with mortgages being withdrawn by lenders.
Truss U-turned on the income and corporation tax policies, and made Kwarteng the scapegoat by sacking him on Friday in an attempt to reset her government.
But Harlow MP Halfon, speaking on Sky’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday programme, made light of the reputational damage by suggesting his constituents are scared of what her administration might do next.
“The awful stereotypes of Conservatives in the past, that we were just the party for the well-off and the rich... the government over the past few weeks has played into that stereotype every day of the week.
“The biggest problem for me is not that my constituents are angry at the government but some of them are actually frightened because they fear for what has gone on, and this can’t continue.”
Robert Halfon said Truss has played into 'awful stereotypes of Conservatives'. (PA)
Jeremy Hunt was appointed as chancellor on Friday after the sacking of Kwarteng, but is now widely seen as more powerful than the prime minister herself. In interviews on Saturday, he effectively trashed the policies that brought Truss to power last month.
Read more: Jeremy Hunt refuses to say Liz Truss is a 'confident leader' who 'has a grip on country'
Halfon added: “I welcome what Jeremy Hunt was saying yesterday in the media but the proof in the pudding will be in the eating. There have to be dramatic improvements and pretty quickly.”
After just 40 days as PM, Truss is battling to stay in power amid widespread reports of Tory plots to replace her.
Halfon later told Times Radio: “I don’t think that [Truss] grasps just how bad the public feel that the government has been over the past few weeks.” While not calling for Truss to go, he demanded an “apology and a fundamental reset”.
'The game is up': Tory MPs publicly call for Liz Truss to resign
James Cheng-Morris
·Freelance news writer, Yahoo UK
Sun, October 16, 2022
'Game is up' for Liz Truss says Tory MP Crispin Blunt
A number of Conservative MPs have publicly called for Liz Truss to resign as the prime minister battles to regain her tattered authority.
On Monday, new chancellor Jeremy Hunt made a statement junking the PM's mini budget, reversing almost all the tax cuts laid out last month and signalling the death of Truss's economic approach.
Truss sacked her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday following the disastrous financial impact of the measures.
Her spokesperson insisted the prime minister is planning to stay in office, saying she was providing “stability of leadership”.
Three Tory MPs have publicly called for Liz Truss to step down as prime minister. (PA)
Crispin Blunt, a former justice minister, told Channel 4’s Andrew Neil Show on Sunday: “I think the game is up and it’s now a question as to how the succession is managed.”
He was followed by Andrew Bridgen on Sunday evening, who told The Telegraph newspaper: “We cannot carry on like this.”
Bridgen, who backed Rishi Sunak in the leadership contest over the summer, said: “Our country, its people and our party deserve better.”
Read more: Jeremy Hunt refuses to say Liz Truss is a 'confident leader'
Conservative MP Jamie Wallis also confirmed he had written to Truss, asking her to stand down. He accused her of "very basic and avoidable errors".
Conservative MP Crispin Blunt has called for Liz Truss to resign as prime minister. (PA)
After Hunt's statement, Angela Richardson went public with her call for Truss to be replaced, telling The Telegraph that it would be "better for the party and for the country to have a change in leadership at the top".
In his statement the chancellor confirmed:
The energy price guarantee – which had been due to cap prices for two years – will end in April after which time the government will look to target help for those most in need
Plans to cut the basic rate of tax by 1p have been shelved
The cut in dividend tax, the freeze to alcohol duty and VAT-free shopping for overseas tourists promised by his predecessor will also go
Hunt said he will continue with the decision to reverse the increase in national insurance contributions and a reduction in stamp duty, which are already going through Parliament.
The Treasury said the move – following talks over the weekend between Hunt and Truss – was designed to “ensure sustainable public finances underpin economic growth”.
The move will be seen as an attempt to reassure the financial markets after weeks of turmoil in the wake of former chancellor Kwarteng’s £45 billion mini-budget tax giveaway.
Read more: UK economy now comparable to Greece and Italy thanks to Liz Truss, ex-Bank leader says
Jeremy Hunt was appointed chancellor on Friday. (PA)
Following his surprise appointment on Friday, Hunt warned that taxes would have to go up while spending would rise less quickly than had previously been planned.
A new poll, first published in the Guardian, predicted a landslide for Labour and wipe-out for the Tories.
The poll, by Opinium for the Trades Union Congress, put Labour on 411 seats compared to the Tories on 137.
James Cheng-Morris
·Freelance news writer, Yahoo UK
Sun, October 16, 2022
Tory MP Robert Halfon said of Liz Truss: 'The biggest problem is not that my constituents are angry at the government but some of them are actually frightened.' (PA)
A Tory MP has said his constituents are “frightened” of Liz Truss’s government.
Robert Halfon, a senior backbencher, said the prime minister has “played into” the Conservative stereotype of being the party for the rich.
It comes amid the ongoing economic turmoil sparked by the prime minister and ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous “growth plan” announced in the mini-budget only three weeks ago.
The mini-budget contained £43bn of unfunded tax cuts, including for people earning more than £150,000 and large corporations. It sparked market chaos, including with mortgages being withdrawn by lenders.
Truss U-turned on the income and corporation tax policies, and made Kwarteng the scapegoat by sacking him on Friday in an attempt to reset her government.
But Harlow MP Halfon, speaking on Sky’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday programme, made light of the reputational damage by suggesting his constituents are scared of what her administration might do next.
“The awful stereotypes of Conservatives in the past, that we were just the party for the well-off and the rich... the government over the past few weeks has played into that stereotype every day of the week.
“The biggest problem for me is not that my constituents are angry at the government but some of them are actually frightened because they fear for what has gone on, and this can’t continue.”
Robert Halfon said Truss has played into 'awful stereotypes of Conservatives'. (PA)
Jeremy Hunt was appointed as chancellor on Friday after the sacking of Kwarteng, but is now widely seen as more powerful than the prime minister herself. In interviews on Saturday, he effectively trashed the policies that brought Truss to power last month.
Read more: Jeremy Hunt refuses to say Liz Truss is a 'confident leader' who 'has a grip on country'
Halfon added: “I welcome what Jeremy Hunt was saying yesterday in the media but the proof in the pudding will be in the eating. There have to be dramatic improvements and pretty quickly.”
After just 40 days as PM, Truss is battling to stay in power amid widespread reports of Tory plots to replace her.
Halfon later told Times Radio: “I don’t think that [Truss] grasps just how bad the public feel that the government has been over the past few weeks.” While not calling for Truss to go, he demanded an “apology and a fundamental reset”.
'The game is up': Tory MPs publicly call for Liz Truss to resign
James Cheng-Morris
·Freelance news writer, Yahoo UK
Sun, October 16, 2022
'Game is up' for Liz Truss says Tory MP Crispin Blunt
A number of Conservative MPs have publicly called for Liz Truss to resign as the prime minister battles to regain her tattered authority.
On Monday, new chancellor Jeremy Hunt made a statement junking the PM's mini budget, reversing almost all the tax cuts laid out last month and signalling the death of Truss's economic approach.
Truss sacked her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday following the disastrous financial impact of the measures.
Her spokesperson insisted the prime minister is planning to stay in office, saying she was providing “stability of leadership”.
Three Tory MPs have publicly called for Liz Truss to step down as prime minister. (PA)
Crispin Blunt, a former justice minister, told Channel 4’s Andrew Neil Show on Sunday: “I think the game is up and it’s now a question as to how the succession is managed.”
He was followed by Andrew Bridgen on Sunday evening, who told The Telegraph newspaper: “We cannot carry on like this.”
Bridgen, who backed Rishi Sunak in the leadership contest over the summer, said: “Our country, its people and our party deserve better.”
Read more: Jeremy Hunt refuses to say Liz Truss is a 'confident leader'
Conservative MP Jamie Wallis also confirmed he had written to Truss, asking her to stand down. He accused her of "very basic and avoidable errors".
Conservative MP Crispin Blunt has called for Liz Truss to resign as prime minister. (PA)
After Hunt's statement, Angela Richardson went public with her call for Truss to be replaced, telling The Telegraph that it would be "better for the party and for the country to have a change in leadership at the top".
In his statement the chancellor confirmed:
The energy price guarantee – which had been due to cap prices for two years – will end in April after which time the government will look to target help for those most in need
Plans to cut the basic rate of tax by 1p have been shelved
The cut in dividend tax, the freeze to alcohol duty and VAT-free shopping for overseas tourists promised by his predecessor will also go
Hunt said he will continue with the decision to reverse the increase in national insurance contributions and a reduction in stamp duty, which are already going through Parliament.
The Treasury said the move – following talks over the weekend between Hunt and Truss – was designed to “ensure sustainable public finances underpin economic growth”.
The move will be seen as an attempt to reassure the financial markets after weeks of turmoil in the wake of former chancellor Kwarteng’s £45 billion mini-budget tax giveaway.
Read more: UK economy now comparable to Greece and Italy thanks to Liz Truss, ex-Bank leader says
Jeremy Hunt was appointed chancellor on Friday. (PA)
Following his surprise appointment on Friday, Hunt warned that taxes would have to go up while spending would rise less quickly than had previously been planned.
A new poll, first published in the Guardian, predicted a landslide for Labour and wipe-out for the Tories.
The poll, by Opinium for the Trades Union Congress, put Labour on 411 seats compared to the Tories on 137.
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