ETHIOPIA'S WAR OF AGGRESSION
Eritrea Goes for Broke in Ethiopian Civil War to Crush Old Foe
Simon Marks
Mon, October 17, 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Eritrea is intensifying its involvement in neighboring Ethiopia’s civil war, hampering efforts to end fighting that’s destabilized the entire Horn of Africa for almost two years.
The conflict has pitted Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal troops against forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which rules the northern Tigray region. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki backed Abiy from the onset of the hostilities and recently embarked on a nationwide, forced conscription campaign to shore up his army with a view to crushing the TPLF, a long-standing foe, according to people familiar with the developments, including diplomats, civil-rights activists, analysts and recruits’ relatives.
The TPLF accuses Eritrea of staging attacks in Tigray since fighting flared in August, five months after a truce was declared. Last week, the governments of Australia, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and US condemned “the escalating involvement of Eritrean military forces in northern Ethiopia.”
Eritrea continues to shell towns and villages across northern Tigray and thousands of the new conscripts, including women and the elderly, have been deployed to the battle front-lines, according to rights activists Meron Estefanos, who is based in Uganda, and Asia Abdulkadir, who is based in Kenya.
Peace talks brokered by the African Union that were scheduled to begin in South Africa on Oct. 8 have been delayed indefinitely. One likely reason is that Eritrea is pushing for an outright victory in the conflict, according to Harry Verhoeven, a professor and Eritrea expert at Columbia University, and three diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to speak to the media.
Yemane Ghebremeskel, Eritrea’s information minister, and Billene Seyoum, Abiy’s spokeswoman, didn’t respond to emailed questions on Eritrea’s role in Tigray or answer calls seeking comment.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Isaias, a rebel commander who led his nation to independence from Ethiopia in the early 1990s and has presided over a one-party state ever since. Besides finally vanquishing the TPLF, a military conquest would help consolidate his power in the region, open up trade with Ethiopia and further cement his already close ties with Abiy.
“A peaceful settlement between the TPLF and Abiy is a threat to Isaias,” Abdulkadir said. “I don’t think it’s in his interests for this conflict to end. This is pure survival for him.”
Former Allies
Animosity between Eritrea and the TPLF, which effectively ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018 when it was sidelined by Abiy, dates back decades. While Isaias and the Tigrayans once fought side by side to overthrow Ethiopia’s communist Derg regime, relations soured after Eritrea gained independence in 1993 and sought to assert its sovereignty.
The two nations then fought a border war from 1998 to 2000 that claimed tens of thousands of lives. That conflict didn’t officially end until 2018, when Abiy took over as prime minister and signed a peace accord with Isaias -- a detente that earned the Ethiopian leader the Nobel Prize.
Eritrea, which has been dubbed the North Korea of Africa, is an international pariah. Isaias’s administration has been criticized by civil rights groups for its practice of jailing politicians, activists and journalists in solitary confinement, and it has been subjected to international sanctions and an arms embargo.
‘Extraordinary Risks’
In recent months, Eritrea has shut all international schools and closed its border with Sudan -- a move aimed at preventing Isaias’s opponents from infiltrating the country, according to the diplomats who’ve been briefed on the development. The president has also ordered all those who were previously exempted from military service to undergo new medical testing, they said.
“This is a man who is profoundly comfortable with taking extraordinary risks,” Verhoeven said. “One of his great strengths is that he is willing to go where nobody else is willing to go and put up with an extraordinary degree of discomfort: international isolation, sanctions, hostile neighbors on his doorstep and anger from the US and other members in the Security Council.”
Eritrea’s military operations are largely funded using the proceeds of business owned by the Red Sea Corp., it’s secretive sovereign fund. Isaias has aided Saudi Arabia in its the fight against the Houthis in Yemen, and been implicated by a group of United Nations experts in lending its support to al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabaab, which has been trying to topple Somalia’s government since 2006.
While the US and other Western governments have urged Eritrea to immediately withdraw from Tigray, Isaias is unlikely to heed their call. Abdulkadir, the Kenya-based activist, said Isaias is loath to take orders from anyone and considers Western powers fickle and grossly inconsistent in the application of their policies.
“War is the way for Isaias to stay involved in Ethiopia’s politics” and peace is simply not an option as long as the TPLF are still around, she said.
Simon Marks
Mon, October 17, 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Eritrea is intensifying its involvement in neighboring Ethiopia’s civil war, hampering efforts to end fighting that’s destabilized the entire Horn of Africa for almost two years.
The conflict has pitted Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal troops against forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which rules the northern Tigray region. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki backed Abiy from the onset of the hostilities and recently embarked on a nationwide, forced conscription campaign to shore up his army with a view to crushing the TPLF, a long-standing foe, according to people familiar with the developments, including diplomats, civil-rights activists, analysts and recruits’ relatives.
The TPLF accuses Eritrea of staging attacks in Tigray since fighting flared in August, five months after a truce was declared. Last week, the governments of Australia, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and US condemned “the escalating involvement of Eritrean military forces in northern Ethiopia.”
Eritrea continues to shell towns and villages across northern Tigray and thousands of the new conscripts, including women and the elderly, have been deployed to the battle front-lines, according to rights activists Meron Estefanos, who is based in Uganda, and Asia Abdulkadir, who is based in Kenya.
Peace talks brokered by the African Union that were scheduled to begin in South Africa on Oct. 8 have been delayed indefinitely. One likely reason is that Eritrea is pushing for an outright victory in the conflict, according to Harry Verhoeven, a professor and Eritrea expert at Columbia University, and three diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to speak to the media.
Yemane Ghebremeskel, Eritrea’s information minister, and Billene Seyoum, Abiy’s spokeswoman, didn’t respond to emailed questions on Eritrea’s role in Tigray or answer calls seeking comment.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Isaias, a rebel commander who led his nation to independence from Ethiopia in the early 1990s and has presided over a one-party state ever since. Besides finally vanquishing the TPLF, a military conquest would help consolidate his power in the region, open up trade with Ethiopia and further cement his already close ties with Abiy.
“A peaceful settlement between the TPLF and Abiy is a threat to Isaias,” Abdulkadir said. “I don’t think it’s in his interests for this conflict to end. This is pure survival for him.”
Former Allies
Animosity between Eritrea and the TPLF, which effectively ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018 when it was sidelined by Abiy, dates back decades. While Isaias and the Tigrayans once fought side by side to overthrow Ethiopia’s communist Derg regime, relations soured after Eritrea gained independence in 1993 and sought to assert its sovereignty.
The two nations then fought a border war from 1998 to 2000 that claimed tens of thousands of lives. That conflict didn’t officially end until 2018, when Abiy took over as prime minister and signed a peace accord with Isaias -- a detente that earned the Ethiopian leader the Nobel Prize.
Eritrea, which has been dubbed the North Korea of Africa, is an international pariah. Isaias’s administration has been criticized by civil rights groups for its practice of jailing politicians, activists and journalists in solitary confinement, and it has been subjected to international sanctions and an arms embargo.
‘Extraordinary Risks’
In recent months, Eritrea has shut all international schools and closed its border with Sudan -- a move aimed at preventing Isaias’s opponents from infiltrating the country, according to the diplomats who’ve been briefed on the development. The president has also ordered all those who were previously exempted from military service to undergo new medical testing, they said.
“This is a man who is profoundly comfortable with taking extraordinary risks,” Verhoeven said. “One of his great strengths is that he is willing to go where nobody else is willing to go and put up with an extraordinary degree of discomfort: international isolation, sanctions, hostile neighbors on his doorstep and anger from the US and other members in the Security Council.”
Eritrea’s military operations are largely funded using the proceeds of business owned by the Red Sea Corp., it’s secretive sovereign fund. Isaias has aided Saudi Arabia in its the fight against the Houthis in Yemen, and been implicated by a group of United Nations experts in lending its support to al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabaab, which has been trying to topple Somalia’s government since 2006.
While the US and other Western governments have urged Eritrea to immediately withdraw from Tigray, Isaias is unlikely to heed their call. Abdulkadir, the Kenya-based activist, said Isaias is loath to take orders from anyone and considers Western powers fickle and grossly inconsistent in the application of their policies.
“War is the way for Isaias to stay involved in Ethiopia’s politics” and peace is simply not an option as long as the TPLF are still around, she said.
Ethiopia's Tigray conflict: Civilian bloodbath warning as offensive escalates
Mary Harper - Africa editor, BBC World Service News
Mon, October 17, 2022
The civil war that began in November 2020 has devastated the Tigray region and left people cut off from aid and food supplies
Diplomats are warning of a civilian bloodbath in Ethiopia's northern region of Tigray if rebels are pushed out of towns by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.
Tigray residents say food and medical supplies are running out as a massive offensive on the region intensifies.
Cities are being carpet bombed, says Tedros Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization chief, who is from Tigray.
Civilians are being killed and those wounded cannot be saved because of a siege, he says.
Tigray has been under a blockade for 17 months and fighting has surged since a five-month humanitarian truce collapsed in August. An estimated one million people are at risk of starvation.
'A military drone is flying over my city as I write'
The African Union (AU) has joined the chorus of international voices calling for an end to hostilities and a recommitment to peace talks.
On Friday, an aid worker from the International Rescue Committee was killed while delivering emergency food to women and children in the town of Shire, which has come under ferocious bombardment.
The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed horror at the violence in Shire, often directed at civilians.
Camps for the millions of people displaced by the fighting are also coming under attack, according to Samantha Power, the head of the US's development agency.
If Ethiopian and Eritrean troops took control of them during the current offensive there was "significant risk of further assaults and killings being perpetrated against civilians", the US Aid chief said.
"The staggering human cost of this conflict should shock the world's conscience," she added.
A resident of Tigray's main city of Mekelle told the BBC there was almost no food in the city.
He said small amounts of the staple grain, teff, were being sold - at more than three times last year's price.
Drones are flying overhead constantly, terrifying the population.
He said growing numbers of women were offering to join the rebel forces in the face of the relentless onslaught of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.
It reflects a growing desperation amongst the Tigrayans who fear they will be crushed in the coming weeks.
So deep is the hatred between the two sides it seems almost inevitable that those who lose will be punished ruthlessly.
Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor in conflict studies at the Oslo New University College in Norway, says World War One tactics are being used by Ethiopia's and Eritrea's infantry forces who are pushing "massive human waves" on Tigrayan defensive lines.
The analyst tweeted that in his opinion the world's biggest ongoing armed conflict was currently not Russia's attack on Ukraine, but the Ethiopian and Eritrean operation against Tigray.
He suggested that up to one million soldiers were engaged in the offensive.
"The carnage is horrendous. Likely as many as 100,000 have been slaughtered over the last weeks," he tweeted.
Ethiopia and Eritrea blame Tigray's TPLF group for starting the conflict in November 2020. WHICH IS BULLSHIT
Mon, October 17, 2022
NAIROBI (Reuters) - Ethiopian government forces and their allies on Monday captured Shire, one of the biggest cities in the northern region of Tigray, from regional forces they have been battling on and off since late 2020, two diplomatic and humanitarian sources said.
The violence in Tigray, which has spilled over into neighbouring regions and drawn in the Eritrean military, has killed thousands of civilians, uprooted millions and left hundreds of thousands now facing possible famine.
The conflict stems from grievances rooted in periods of Ethiopia's turbulent past when particular regional power blocs held sway over the country as a whole, and in tensions over the balance of power between the regions and the central state.
Shire is about 140 km (90 miles) northwest of Tigray's regional capital Mekelle and hosts tens of thousands of people displaced from other areas by the conflict.
Just as news of Shire's capture was breaking, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres was calling for an immediate end to hostilities in Tigray and a return to peace talks sponsored by the African Union.
Guterres told reporters the United Nations was ready to support the bloc in every possible way to end the Ethiopian people's "nightmare".
The European Union said the joint offensive by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces should stop immediately and the Eritreans should withdraw from Ethiopian territory. It also urged Tigray forces to refrain from any further military operations.
Spokespersons for the Ethiopian government and army, for the Eritrean government and for the Tigray forces did not respond to requests for comment on events in Shire.
In a post on Twitter, the Ethiopian foreign affairs ministry referred to "areas liberated and controlled" by the national army, saying the government was ready to ensure humanitarian access and ensure the safety of humanitarian workers. It did not specify which areas it was referring to.
An aid worker from the International Rescue Committee was among three people killed during an air strike on Shire on Friday.
On Sunday, Samantha Power, head of U.S. development agency USAID, said there was a significant risk of attacks on civilians if the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies took control of camps sheltering displaced civilians.
In September, a U.N. human rights commission said it had reasonable grounds to believe that war crimes had been committed by forces from both sides of the conflict, which have all denied perpetrating abuses.
Earlier on Monday, the Ethiopian government said it aimed to seize airports and other infrastructure currently under the control of the Tigray forces, even as it stated it was committed to a peaceful resolution of the conflict through peace talks.
The Tigray authorities said on Sunday their forces would abide by an immediate truce and said a "humanitarian catastrophe" was unfolding.
Both sides blame each other for breaking a ceasefire in August that had lasted since March.
Peace talks proposed for earlier this month in South Africa were delayed with no new date announced.
Western and African diplomats said they were concerned that the fighting in Tigray would further delay the start of any substantive talks. They also said the involvement of Eritrean troops was a major issue and it was unclear if the Ethiopian government had any control over its ally's forces.
(Reporting by Nairobi newsroom; Writing by Estelle Shirbon,; Editing by James Macharia Chege and Angus MacSwan)
UN chief: war in Ethiopia's Tigray must end, Eritrea exit
EDITH M. LEDERER
Mon, October 17, 2022
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United Nations chief on Monday demanded an immediate end to hostilities in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and withdrawal of Eritrean forces fighting alongside the government, saying “violence and destruction have reached alarming levels” and “civilians are paying a horrific price.”
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed that “there is no military solution” to the nearly two-year conflict between Tigrayan forces and the federal government, warning that “the situation in Ethiopia is spiraling out of control.”
He called for an urgent resumption of talks between the two sides and said, “The United Nations is ready to support the African Union in every possible way to end this nightmare for the Ethiopian people.”
The warring parties had said they were ready to participate in AU-led talks which were due to take place in South Africa earlier this month, but they were postponed because of logistical and technical issues.
AU Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat expressed “grave concern” in a statement Sunday over the fighting and called for an “immediate, unconditional cease-fire and the resumption of humanitarian services.”
He urged the parties “to recommit to dialogue as per their agreement to direct talks to be convened in South Africa by a high-level team led by the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa and supported by the international community.”
Guterres told reporters that Ethiopia’s “social fabric is being ripped apart,” saying innocent people are being killed every day in indiscriminate attacks, including in residential areas, and hundreds of thousands have been forced to flee their homes since hostilities resumed in August, many for the second time.
“We are also hearing disturbing accounts of sexual violence and other acts of brutality against women, children and men,” the U.N. chief said.
Months of political tensions between Ethiopia’s government and Tigray leaders who once dominated the government exploded into war in November 2020.
Following some of the fiercest fighting of the conflict, Ethiopian soldiers fled the Tigrayan capital Mekele in June 2021 and the government declared a national state of emergency with sweeping powers. A drone-assisted government military offensive halted the Tigrayans’ approach to Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, and last December the Tigrayans retreated back to Tigray.
A cease-fire that began in March and allowed much-needed aid to enter Tigray ended with a resumption of fighting in August.
Even before hostilities resumed, secretary-general Guterres said 13 million people needed food and other assistance in Tigray and the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions.
Since fighting resumed, he said, “Deliveries of aid into Tigray have been suspended for more than seven weeks, and assistance to Amhara and Afar has also been disrupted.”
Guterres urged all parties to facilitate the delivery of aid to all civilians in need.
In response to the worsening conflict, the three African members of the 15-nation U.N. Security Council -- Kenya, Gabon and Ghana -- have called for an emergency closed meeting on Ethiopia and briefings by the AU and the U.N. humanitarian office, diplomats said. A date has not yet been announced.
Guterres said he believes the fighting, which started out as an internal conflict, now has an international dimension with Eritrean forces inside Ethiopia and “a delicate situation on the border with Sudan, so this is something that needs to be seriously considered by all entities, including the Security Council.”
EDITH M. LEDERER
Mon, October 17, 2022
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United Nations chief on Monday demanded an immediate end to hostilities in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and withdrawal of Eritrean forces fighting alongside the government, saying “violence and destruction have reached alarming levels” and “civilians are paying a horrific price.”
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stressed that “there is no military solution” to the nearly two-year conflict between Tigrayan forces and the federal government, warning that “the situation in Ethiopia is spiraling out of control.”
He called for an urgent resumption of talks between the two sides and said, “The United Nations is ready to support the African Union in every possible way to end this nightmare for the Ethiopian people.”
The warring parties had said they were ready to participate in AU-led talks which were due to take place in South Africa earlier this month, but they were postponed because of logistical and technical issues.
AU Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat expressed “grave concern” in a statement Sunday over the fighting and called for an “immediate, unconditional cease-fire and the resumption of humanitarian services.”
He urged the parties “to recommit to dialogue as per their agreement to direct talks to be convened in South Africa by a high-level team led by the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa and supported by the international community.”
Guterres told reporters that Ethiopia’s “social fabric is being ripped apart,” saying innocent people are being killed every day in indiscriminate attacks, including in residential areas, and hundreds of thousands have been forced to flee their homes since hostilities resumed in August, many for the second time.
“We are also hearing disturbing accounts of sexual violence and other acts of brutality against women, children and men,” the U.N. chief said.
Months of political tensions between Ethiopia’s government and Tigray leaders who once dominated the government exploded into war in November 2020.
Following some of the fiercest fighting of the conflict, Ethiopian soldiers fled the Tigrayan capital Mekele in June 2021 and the government declared a national state of emergency with sweeping powers. A drone-assisted government military offensive halted the Tigrayans’ approach to Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, and last December the Tigrayans retreated back to Tigray.
A cease-fire that began in March and allowed much-needed aid to enter Tigray ended with a resumption of fighting in August.
Even before hostilities resumed, secretary-general Guterres said 13 million people needed food and other assistance in Tigray and the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions.
Since fighting resumed, he said, “Deliveries of aid into Tigray have been suspended for more than seven weeks, and assistance to Amhara and Afar has also been disrupted.”
Guterres urged all parties to facilitate the delivery of aid to all civilians in need.
In response to the worsening conflict, the three African members of the 15-nation U.N. Security Council -- Kenya, Gabon and Ghana -- have called for an emergency closed meeting on Ethiopia and briefings by the AU and the U.N. humanitarian office, diplomats said. A date has not yet been announced.
Guterres said he believes the fighting, which started out as an internal conflict, now has an international dimension with Eritrean forces inside Ethiopia and “a delicate situation on the border with Sudan, so this is something that needs to be seriously considered by all entities, including the Security Council.”
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