Confusion over Palestinian-Israeli talks is helping no-one
Tensions in the West Bank are boiling over and unclear communication following a meeting of security officials in Aqaba puts de-escalation at risk
THE NATIONAL
EDITORIAL
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A Palestinian man walks between scorched cars in a scrapyard, in the West Bank town of Hawara on Monday. Scores of Israeli settlers went on a violent rampage, setting cars and homes on fire after two settlers were killed by a Palestinian gunman. Palestinian officials say one man was killed and four others were badly wounded. AP
Critical security talks between Palestinian and Israeli officials held in Jordan at the weekend provided initial optimism that direct engagement and negotiations are back on the table in the Middle East’s longest-running conflict. Jordan, Egypt and the US had also participated in the talks, hosted in the Jordanian city of Aqaba. By Monday morning, however, confusion over their outcome had already set in.
A joint statement released by the White House on Sunday said Israel had agreed to suspend illegal settlement activity in occupied Palestinian territory.
“This includes an Israeli commitment to stop discussion of any new settlement units for four months and to stop authorisation of any outposts for six months,” the statement said.
However, Israel's National Security Adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, said on Sunday that there had been no policy change, and that the government would legalise nine outposts and approve 9,500 housing units in the West Bank in the coming months.
This came before a comment from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who tweeted that Jewish settlements would continue “according to the original planning and construction schedule, without any changes”.
“There is and will not be any freeze,” he added.
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Israeli soldiers speak with settlers in the town of Huwara near Nablus in the occupied West Bank on Monday. AFP
The comments risk extinguishing what was already a very faint glimmer of hope for de-escalation. If a public commitment can be reversed almost immediately, it also leaves Palestinian negotiators with little to show for their efforts.
It is difficult to deny that the settlements make daily life for many Palestinians unendurable, fuelling grievance and extremism. They also act as a lightning rod for conflict, as they did on Sunday, when two settlers were shot dead in the West Bank town of Huwara, leading to a wave of violence in the area. The violence peaked when some settlers appear to have set fire to Palestinian homes.
Suspending discussion of new settlements would have sent a signal to Palestinians that the Israeli authorities wanted to at least establish a breathing space, particularly as tensions rise ahead of Ramadan, which will overlap with the Jewish Passover holiday in April. This can be a particularly precarious time – clashes during Ramadan in 2021 at Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and the West Bank escalated into an 11-day war.
But with several members of the Israeli Cabinet drawing much of their support from within the settler movement, it is difficult at this stage to see how even limited change to the government’s settlement policy can be secured.
The uncertainty over what commitments, if any, were made in Aqaba also threatens to suck the air out of whatever engagement process remains. Waiting in the wings, too, are the militants of Hamas, who have condemned the Palestinian Authority (PA) for taking part in the Jordan meeting. The government of President Mahmoud Abbas also faces the rise of new armed groups outside of PA control, such as Lion’s Den in Jenin, which are adding an uncontrollable element to a deteriorating security situation.
The pervading sense of despair in the occupied Palestinian territories shows no sign of abating. It undermines attempts to reach what many regard as a realistic, just and attainable settlement: a two-state solution. Just over a month ago, a survey of more than 2,000 people published by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Research found that only 33 per cent of Palestinians and 34 per cent of Israeli Jews said they support a two-state solution, a significant drop from data collected in 2020.
This is a time for allies of the Palestinian people and Israel alike to redouble their efforts to facilitate dialogue. But for dialogue to be of any consequence, it must be clear, it must be sincere and it must lead to change. Dashing people’s hopes is not just a temporary setback. It can become a long-lasting one, too.
Published: February 27, 2023
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The National Editorial
Insight and opinion from The National’s editorial leadership
Why is Israel-Palestinian violence surging?
There has been an intensification of violence between Israel and the Palestinians since the start of this year, with deaths mounting on both sides. Here is a brief guide to what is going on.
What is happening?
The current violence is mainly taking place in the West Bank and East Jerusalem - areas occupied by Israel since the 1967 Middle East war. While the starting point is debatable, it began to escalate in March 2022. In a period of days, Israel was rocked by a series of deadly Palestinian attacks and the Israeli military launched an open-ended operation in the West Bank in response, resulting in near nightly raids into the occupied territories.
How has it got worse?
There have been many individual injuries and deaths resulting from Israeli military operations and Palestinian attacks over the past year, but what marks this period of violence out is both the scale of the loss of lives and the number of incidents in which multiple people have been killed.
Last year, at least 146 Palestinians - militants, civilians and attackers - were killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank and East Jerusalem - more than any time since UN records began in 2005. Meanwhile, 29 Israelis and two foreign nationals - all but four of whom were civilians - were killed in attacks by Palestinians or Israeli Arabs. This was deadliest year for Israelis since 2015.
Already in the first two months of this year, the death toll - 60 Palestinians and 14 on the Israeli side - has been higher than any similar period in 2022, swelled by some of the bloodiest incidents in years.
In one Israeli military raid in Nablus in February, 11 Palestinians were killed in the ensuing violence, with dozens more injured by bullets, according to the Palestinian health ministry. In another raid and gun-battle in Jenin the previous month,10 Palestinians were killed.
Israelis have also reeled from a spate of particularly deadly attacks: seven civilians were shot dead outside an East Jerusalem synagogue in January, while in another incident in February three were killed in a ramming attack at a bus stop on the outskirts of the city.
Many others have been killed and injured on both sides in near-daily incidents, fuelling what is often described as a cycle of violence.
What is driving the violence?
Each side blames the other, but there are also longer-term underlying causes.
Palestinian attackers and those who support them say they are fighting Israel and the occupation and avenging Israeli assaults. Some of the attacks have been carried out by "lone wolves" - individuals who were not acting on the orders of an organisation. Israel accuses the Palestinian Authority (PA) - the Palestinians' governing body in the West Bank - of inciting such attacks.
Other attacks have been carried out by Palestinian militant groups, including the newly formed Lions' Den, whose popularity on the Palestinian street has surged.
Israel says its ongoing operation in the West Bank, called "Break the Wave", is targeting militant groups with arrest raids to stop them from launching attacks. The raids, however, are often taking place in densely populated refugee camps and other urban areas, where they meet resistance from gunmen and often turn bloody.
Is there an end in sight?
Not in the short-term. Israel says it has to continue its operations to weaken the militant groups and thwart attacks, while Palestinians say the attacks are a response to Israel's actions and overwhelmingly more powerful military. There is also no political peace process which could offer the prospect of a permanent solution, leaving decades-old grievances - the Palestinians' want of a state and Israel's want of security chief among them - festering.
The PA - derided and seen as complicit in Israel's military occupation by many Palestinians - shows no appetite to act against militants, a move which would be unpopular among ordinary Palestinians and put its own survival at risk. Israel's new hard-line, right-wing government is also intensifying measures against Palestinian violence, including accelerating demolitions of attackers' homes, allowing for attackers to be deported, and expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
The ongoing expansion of Jewish settlements on land Palestinians claim for a future state is seen by them as a root cause of their long conflict with Israel. Settlements are considered illegal under international law, though Israel disputes this.
A faint flicker of hope lies with US-brokered talks, which brought Israel and the Palestinians face-to-face in the first meeting of its kind for years in Jordan on Sunday in an attempt to de-escalate tensions, with an aim for the two sides to meet again in March.
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