Ukrainian commander on possible Wagner attack from Belarus: ‘Nothing but suicide’
Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks with servicemen during withdrawal of his forces from Bakhmut. (Reuters)
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English
Published: 25 June ,2023
Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warned on Sunday that should Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin try to lead his Wagner forces in an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, it would be “nothing but suicide.”
Commander Serhii Naiev said that Ukraine’s northern border – shared with Belarus – remained “stable and under control,” according to the Ukrainian military’s Telegram account.
He added: “Our troops continue to build up defense equipment. All services, from intelligence to engineering troops, are operating in enhanced mode. Currently, there is no increase in equipment or manpower of the enemy. The state border is under reliable protection 24/7.”
He stressed that should a cross-border attack be launched from the Belarusian side; the Ukrainian forces were armed and ready to counter any such attack.
“If this happens and the enemy tries to cross the state border, it will be nothing but suicide for them. Our soldiers are ready to give a decent response to anyone who dares to cross the state border with weapons in hand.
Former British Army chief of general staff General Richard Dannatt had earlier said in an interview with Sky News that Prigozhin’s presence in Belarus was a “matter of some concern,” as it was quite possible that Russia may use Wagner forces to try and take the Ukrainian capital again.
Russian forces stationed for Moscow's defense pulled back on Sunday when the Wagner mercenaries, led by Prigozhin, ceased their approach towards the capital. Prior to this, the mercenaries had seemingly seized the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a center that oversees Ukraine operations, and advanced towards Moscow with little resistance, successfully downing several helicopters and a military plane.
A surprising development occurred when a deal was brokered for Prigozhin's move to Belarus, leading to the dropping of charges against him for instigating an armed uprising, as stated by Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman. As a result of this agreement, Prigozhin ordered his troops to return to their bases.
Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks with servicemen during withdrawal of his forces from Bakhmut. (Reuters)
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English
Published: 25 June ,2023
Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warned on Sunday that should Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin try to lead his Wagner forces in an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, it would be “nothing but suicide.”
Commander Serhii Naiev said that Ukraine’s northern border – shared with Belarus – remained “stable and under control,” according to the Ukrainian military’s Telegram account.
He added: “Our troops continue to build up defense equipment. All services, from intelligence to engineering troops, are operating in enhanced mode. Currently, there is no increase in equipment or manpower of the enemy. The state border is under reliable protection 24/7.”
He stressed that should a cross-border attack be launched from the Belarusian side; the Ukrainian forces were armed and ready to counter any such attack.
“If this happens and the enemy tries to cross the state border, it will be nothing but suicide for them. Our soldiers are ready to give a decent response to anyone who dares to cross the state border with weapons in hand.
Former British Army chief of general staff General Richard Dannatt had earlier said in an interview with Sky News that Prigozhin’s presence in Belarus was a “matter of some concern,” as it was quite possible that Russia may use Wagner forces to try and take the Ukrainian capital again.
Russian forces stationed for Moscow's defense pulled back on Sunday when the Wagner mercenaries, led by Prigozhin, ceased their approach towards the capital. Prior to this, the mercenaries had seemingly seized the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a center that oversees Ukraine operations, and advanced towards Moscow with little resistance, successfully downing several helicopters and a military plane.
A surprising development occurred when a deal was brokered for Prigozhin's move to Belarus, leading to the dropping of charges against him for instigating an armed uprising, as stated by Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman. As a result of this agreement, Prigozhin ordered his troops to return to their bases.
Prigozhin’s Rising Cut Russian Supply Lines to Ukraine, Ensuring Kyiv can Win the War if It Acts Quickly, Inozemtsev Says
Staunton, June 25 – In a single day, Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC sliced through the supply lines of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine, putting that army at risk of rapid defeat if as is likely the Ukrainian side recognizes what has happened in the last 24 hours and attacks Russian forces at strategic locations, Vladislav Inozemtsev says.
Because of what Prigozhin and company did, the Moscow economist and political commentator says, the war in Ukraine “is over.” The Russian forces will now lose it very quickly; and therefore what is happening is very good for Ukraine (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/06/24/putin-konchilsia).
“The Russian army now fighting in Ukraine requires a huge logistical system,” Inozemtsev continues. And the main routes of this supply chain were “destroyed in one day” by Prigozhin who disrupted those lines over more than 1000 kilometers. “I think that the Ukrainians cannot fail to take advantage of this situation.”
The Ukrainians need to act very quickly as Moscow may seek to recover what it has lost, but the Prigozhin rising showed how pathetic the Russian system has become under Putin and the incompetent people he has put in charge of the military. And perhaps worse for Putin is the fact that everyone can see that he can’t control the situation.
As the latest Russian anecdote puts it, in 2021, Russia had the second strongest army in the world. By 2022, it had the second strongest one in Ukraine; and now in 2023, the Russian army is the second strongest one in Russia itself.” Russians are laughing about this, and that laughter is about Putin.
By Paul Wallis
DIGITAL JOURNAL
Published June 24, 2023
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has said his troops had taken control of Russia’s main military command centre for Ukraine operations as well as an airbase in the city - Copyright AFP STRINGER
There is never anything simple or straightforward about Russian history or politics. The furious “march on Moscow” and the rhetoric of the last 48 hours have vanished in a strange deal conducted out of thin air. Prigozhin goes to Belarus and Wagner returns to the camps.
That suddenly solves everything.
How does it solve anything? Prigozhin spent the last two days complaining about a Russian attack on his troops which killed “huge numbers” of Wagner mercenaries. That could well have been staged. There are plenty of spare body parts around in the region.
Prigozhin was furious, at least in public. He said they wanted to disband Wagner. He’s been verbally attacking the Russian Ministry of Defense for months. His troops took Rostov in a few hours. They have now returned to field camps, locations unspecified.
Putin responded in kind to the “mutiny” and accused Prigozhin of treason. The FSB called for Prigozhin’s arrest. That was rather odd because if anyone was going to arrest him, it would have had to be them. It seemed things were about to come to a head. An actual civil war seemed quite likely.
…Then Guest Contestant Lukashenko steps in and all is well? How? Prigozhin says he agreed to this deal to prevent bloodshed. It’s a bit like a hyena asking for a salad. The Wagner Group is famous for causing bloodshed, not preventing it.
Putin’s own position is not secure, according to observers. He has to establish control and his own credibility. For the period of the “mutiny” he was just issuing statements, not conducting countermeasures. This is very much out of character, and nothing like his public image.
Nobody got assassinated, which is also most unusual.
Wagner forces have left Ukraine just as the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.
The Wagner troops are severely worn and torn after months of heavy fighting.
The Russian army is on full defensive.
The Russian campaign in Ukraine has failed disastrously and is getting worse. They need to get out.
Wagner troops were able to move around with ease behind Russian lines with no opposition worth reporting.
Wagner “took” Rostov, a fairly sizeable city, with ease and trundled to within 200km of Moscow without any opposition at all.
Lukashenko doesn’t have the clout to turn on a light switch in Russia.
Russia publicized the “mutiny” on state broadcasts and social media. It’s not often any Russian government admits to any problems. Why the sudden PR campaign for Prigozhin?
All this played out in 48 hours.
How believable is any of this? A charade is one description.
A few more peculiar issues:Putin could have used the “mutiny” or something like it as an excuse to redeploy a lot of troops back to Russia and rebuild internal security without actually admitting defeat. He’s not doing that.
A few weeks ago, anti-Putin forces took areas around Belgorod and forced a Russian military response. That’s now a non-topic in the news. This just emphasizes the inherent instability in Russia before the Wagner mutiny.
Wagner can be seen to be defused as a risk with any supposed deal, whether any of this is real or not.
Prigozhin must have got something out of this deal, but what?
Belarus is progressively filling up with Russian troops, probably meaning backup for the projected Russian annexation or “reunification” as they call it.
Wagner can back up any Russian moves in Belarus or a new front against Ukraine to take the pressure off the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
There are many other major players in Russia. Who else is involved? Kremlin factions?
Published June 24, 2023
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has said his troops had taken control of Russia’s main military command centre for Ukraine operations as well as an airbase in the city - Copyright AFP STRINGER
There is never anything simple or straightforward about Russian history or politics. The furious “march on Moscow” and the rhetoric of the last 48 hours have vanished in a strange deal conducted out of thin air. Prigozhin goes to Belarus and Wagner returns to the camps.
That suddenly solves everything.
How does it solve anything? Prigozhin spent the last two days complaining about a Russian attack on his troops which killed “huge numbers” of Wagner mercenaries. That could well have been staged. There are plenty of spare body parts around in the region.
Prigozhin was furious, at least in public. He said they wanted to disband Wagner. He’s been verbally attacking the Russian Ministry of Defense for months. His troops took Rostov in a few hours. They have now returned to field camps, locations unspecified.
Putin responded in kind to the “mutiny” and accused Prigozhin of treason. The FSB called for Prigozhin’s arrest. That was rather odd because if anyone was going to arrest him, it would have had to be them. It seemed things were about to come to a head. An actual civil war seemed quite likely.
…Then Guest Contestant Lukashenko steps in and all is well? How? Prigozhin says he agreed to this deal to prevent bloodshed. It’s a bit like a hyena asking for a salad. The Wagner Group is famous for causing bloodshed, not preventing it.
This video grab taken from handout footage posted on June 24, 2023, on the Telegram channel @razgruzka_vagnera shows Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin (C) walking in the city of Rostov-on-Don – Copyright TELEGRAM / @razgruzka_vagnera/AFP Handout
Belarus just happens to be the conveniently located theme park that is taking delivery of Russian nuclear missiles. It’s slated to become part of Russia again at some point. Belarussian fighters are fighting the Russians in Ukraine. Russian troops were also sent to Belarus recently.
Which leads to a pretty obvious question – What’s really happening in Russia?
Belarus just happens to be the conveniently located theme park that is taking delivery of Russian nuclear missiles. It’s slated to become part of Russia again at some point. Belarussian fighters are fighting the Russians in Ukraine. Russian troops were also sent to Belarus recently.
Which leads to a pretty obvious question – What’s really happening in Russia?
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said his forces have entered the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don after vowing to topple the top military brass
– Copyright AFP/File INTI OCON
A few pointers:
A few pointers:
Putin was almost at actual war with his one and only successful military commander.
Putin’s own position is not secure, according to observers. He has to establish control and his own credibility. For the period of the “mutiny” he was just issuing statements, not conducting countermeasures. This is very much out of character, and nothing like his public image.
Nobody got assassinated, which is also most unusual.
Wagner forces have left Ukraine just as the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.
The Wagner troops are severely worn and torn after months of heavy fighting.
The Russian army is on full defensive.
The Russian campaign in Ukraine has failed disastrously and is getting worse. They need to get out.
Wagner troops were able to move around with ease behind Russian lines with no opposition worth reporting.
Wagner “took” Rostov, a fairly sizeable city, with ease and trundled to within 200km of Moscow without any opposition at all.
Lukashenko doesn’t have the clout to turn on a light switch in Russia.
Russia publicized the “mutiny” on state broadcasts and social media. It’s not often any Russian government admits to any problems. Why the sudden PR campaign for Prigozhin?
All this played out in 48 hours.
How believable is any of this? A charade is one description.
A few more peculiar issues:Putin could have used the “mutiny” or something like it as an excuse to redeploy a lot of troops back to Russia and rebuild internal security without actually admitting defeat. He’s not doing that.
A few weeks ago, anti-Putin forces took areas around Belgorod and forced a Russian military response. That’s now a non-topic in the news. This just emphasizes the inherent instability in Russia before the Wagner mutiny.
Wagner can be seen to be defused as a risk with any supposed deal, whether any of this is real or not.
Prigozhin must have got something out of this deal, but what?
Belarus is progressively filling up with Russian troops, probably meaning backup for the projected Russian annexation or “reunification” as they call it.
Wagner can back up any Russian moves in Belarus or a new front against Ukraine to take the pressure off the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
There are many other major players in Russia. Who else is involved? Kremlin factions?
The organized crime groups which control a lot of oil and black market assets? These people don’t play charades. They don’t like anything that disrupts business, either.
The much-disaffected, utterly humiliated and demoralized Russian army may not back Putin.
It just can’t be this simple. This complex pantomime indicates a lot of internal forces in play. Everything is still up in the air. Russia is falling to bits. The only question now is in what way it falls to bits.
The much-disaffected, utterly humiliated and demoralized Russian army may not back Putin.
It just can’t be this simple. This complex pantomime indicates a lot of internal forces in play. Everything is still up in the air. Russia is falling to bits. The only question now is in what way it falls to bits.
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