The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers -Book Review


The concept that underpins The Origins of Victory is disruptive innovation: a creative technological or strategic shift that sparks a revolution in military operations.

BySania Salamat
BySania Salamat
December 10, 2024

Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr.’s The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers (2023) provides a valuable and much-needed vantage point to understand where the nature of warfare is heading as well as how militaries need to evolve to remain dominant in the modern age of the twenty-first century. According to Krepinevich, a military theorist of some repute, war of the future will not necessarily be fought between sizeable armies or through conventional battle strategies but by the capacity to correctly identify the disruptive innovations that, when applied, redefine warfare.

A New Era of Warfare: The Disruption of Traditional Military Power

The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers by Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr.

The concept that underpins The Origins of Victory is disruptive innovation: a creative technological or strategic shift that sparks a revolution in military operations. Krepinevich draws a connection to the Precision Warfare Revolution, which the United States expertly employed during the First Gulf War. The transition to precision-guided weapons provided the United States with a temporary monopoly on modern combat capabilities; for a few decades, modern warfare technology was solely the province of the United States. However, as Krepinevich accurately observes, this advantage is no longer valid because other countries, especially prospective foes, have fallen into the same trap. The central premise of Krepinevich’s book asserts that a technological revolution, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, synthetic biology, and additive manufacturing (commonly known as 3D printing), is driving a second wave of disruption in the United States military. These technologies have the ability to profoundly alter the nature of warfare, and only those who can successfully traverse and execute them will emerge triumphant in the future decades. Krepinevich underscores that “the race for military dominance is no longer about having the most advanced technology, but about being the first to recognize its potential and integrate it effectively into military strategy” (Krepinevich, 2023).

Historical Context: The Importance of Disruptive Innovation

Krepinevich’s research is not theoretical; instead, he provides real-life instances of how disruptive technologies have altered the history of warfare. The finest example Krepinevich provides is based on his experience recognizing military forces whose systems, at each step of their evolution, transform the essence of combat by introducing drastically different tactics, technologies, or organizational configurations. From the discovery of gunpowder to the introduction of tanks in World War I, military history is filled with examples of major nations capitalizing on technological advances.
The story continues with the United States military at the start of the twenty-first century and its challenge of leadership in the face of superior technology. Krepinevich demonstrates this by demonstrating how the advent of peer competitors such as China and Russia threatens to unhinge the US military, particularly in the cyberspace, AI, and space domains. He writes, “Militaries that can recognize and exploit disruptive innovations before their rivals can will determine the winners of the future” (Krepinevich, 2023).

The Future of Warfare: The Next Big Thing

Examine the emergence of aviation and air power in the twentieth century, mechanized forces in the nineteenth century, steamships in the early nineteenth century, line-of-sight cannon in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, and gunpowder in the fifteenth century, according to Krepinevich. Affirmative Krepinevich’s study critically analyzes the forthcoming significant developments in warfare. The future of military rivalry depends on who can spot the next shift and adapt their strategy before their opponents. The book emphasizes the nascent technologies poised to influence the forthcoming era of military rivalry:

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI’s potential to transform warfare is vast, from autonomous drones to AI-driven decision-making systems that can outpace human judgment.
2. Synthetic Biology: Krepinevich discusses the promise of biotechnology, particularly in enhancing soldiers’ physical abilities or creating bio-engineered weapons that could revolutionize combat.
3. Quantum Computing: Quantum technologies offer breakthroughs in encryption, cryptography, and communications, making them invaluable for future military operations.
4. Additive Manufacturing: The ability to print weapons, drones, or even military infrastructure on demand will disrupt traditional supply chains and logistics, making the battlefield more dynamic and unpredictable.

Though he acknowledges that these technologies are both wonderful and dangerous, Krepinevich presents a hopeful and balanced outlook on them. He cautions the heads of the military about the fallacy of so-called ‘technological determinism’ or about the fact that the new technology will itself decide on the future of war without taking into consideration the changes in plans and tactics needed.

Conclusion: Adapting to the Future

Therefore, to understand the future of the world, we must read The Origins of Victory, a thought-provoking study. Reading Krepinevich’s central thesis—that the winning nations will be those that are able to effectively adopt revolutionary new technologies—reminds the reader that innovation is just as important as numerical superiority or power in today’s warfare. This methodical approach, which breaks down the topic into its historical roots, present situation, and potential future developments, provides a better understanding of military competition in the 21st century.
Krepinevich issues a stern ultimatum to the United States military and its allies: adapt or fall behind in the rapidly evolving technological race. In his final remarks, he simultaneously issues a warning and extends an invitation. “The next great powers will be those that are able to not only recognize the potential of new technologies but master their application in war” (Krepinevich, 2023).

The Origins of Victory is essential reading for anyone interested in the future of warfare, military strategy, or the geopolitical dynamics that will shape the coming decades.

Sania Salamat

I am an MPhil Research Scholar in Defense and Strategic Studies at the National Defence University, Islamabad. In addition to my academic work, I serve as a Freelance Military Researcher, offering specialized research and writing services to international clients. Over the past 3.5 years, I have supported a diverse range of clients, including senior personnel from the U.S., German, and UAE military, assisting them with both academic research and professional projects.