Monday, June 24, 2024

 

Up to 30 percent more time: Climate change makes it harder for women to collect water



POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH (PIK)





Climate change could increase the amount of time women spend collecting water by up to 30 percent globally by 2050, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. In regions of South America and Southeast Asia, the time spent collecting water could double due to higher temperatures and less rainfall. A team of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) estimates the large welfare losses that could result from climate impacts and highlights how women are particularly vulnerable to changing future climate conditions. Worldwide, two billion people currently lack access to safe drinking water. The responsibility for collecting water typically falls on women and girls.

 

”Climate change leads to rising temperatures and alters rainfall patterns, affecting the availability of water. We show that for women in households without running water, the time spent for collecting water will increase in almost all regions analysed under future climate change,” says study author Robert Carr, guest researcher at PIK. On a global average, for the period from 1990 to 2019, women in households without running water spend 22.84 minutes every day collecting water – ranging from 4 minutes in parts of Indonesia to 110 minutes in regions of Ethiopia. “Compared to these numbers, we found that women will have to spend up to 30 percent more time each day collecting water by 2050 under a high-emission scenario. This can be reduced to 19 percent if global warming is kept below 2 degree Celsius,” says Carr.

“Regionally by 2050, daily water collection times could double under a high-emission scenario, for example, in regions across South America and Southeast Asia. For regions in eastern and central Africa that currently have the longest water collection times, temperature rises in a high-emission scenario would cause increases of between 20 and 40 percent,” says author Maximilian Kotz from PIK. Globally, women spend up to 200 million hours a day on this vital task (as of 2016), which can lead to major losses of time otherwise used for education, work or leisure and can sometimes be a physical and mental burden.
 

Cost of lost working time could reach tens to hundreds of millions of US dollars per country and year

Based on historical data from household surveys in 347 subnational regions across four continents from 1990 to 2019, the researchers first assessed how changing climate conditions have impacted water collection times in the past. “We find that higher temperatures and less rainfall have increased daily water collection times,” says Maximilian Kotz. There are several possible explanations for that, he adds: “From a purely physical perspective, higher temperatures and less rainfall change the balance between evaporation and precipitation, thus lowering water tables. This makes fresh water harder to access. In addition, the journey can also become more uncomfortable and thus take longer due to heat stress.” Combining the observed patterns with temperature and precipitation projections from state-of-the-art clime models (CMIP-6), the researchers then assessed the impacts of future changes in climate on daily water collection times under different emission scenarios.

“Our results shed light on a gendered dimension of climate change impacts,” states author and PIK researcher Leonie Wenz. “They show how strongly climate change will affect women's well-being, causing them to lose time for education, work and leisure. By 2050, the cost of lost working time, calculated at the country-specific minimum wage, would be substantial, reaching tens to hundreds of millions of US dollars per country and year under a high-emission scenario.”

 

Article:
Robert Carr, Maximilian Kotz, Peter-Paul Pichler, Helga Weisz, Camille Belmin & Leonie Wenz (2024): Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women's welfare globally. Nature Climate Change. [DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02037-8]

Weblink to the article, once published:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02037-8

Disclaimer: AAA

WORD OF THE DAY

Navigating the Pyrocene: Recent Cell Press papers on managing fire risk



Peer-Reviewed Publication

CELL PRESS





As wildfires become more intense and the fire season grows longer across parts of the world, humans will need to adapt. In this collection of papers from Cell Press journals One Earth and Cell Reports Sustainability, an intersection of fire management researchers comment on what needs to change to ensure we can collaborate across stakeholders in a more fire-resistant future.

The papers are publishing in advance of a Cell Press 50th Anniversary sustainabiltiy forum on the topic of “Navigating the Pyrocene: Managing fire risk in a warming world.” The virtual event, free to register, takes place Thursday, July 11, 2024 at 11:00 am ET.

This collection of Cell Press journal content related to fire includes the following:

University of California, Berkeley environmental health scientist David J.X. González (@davidJXgonzalez) and colleagues found widespread historical and projected future overlap between wildfires and oil and gas development in the western United States. Combined with recent increases in wildfire activity, this increases potential health risks for local populations, particularly in communities of color, and introduces new hazards.

Civil and environmental engineer Hussam Mahmoud (@HussamN_Mahmoud) of Colorado State University argues that more can be done to mitigate against wildfire risks caused by communities expanding into forest-dense areas, which lead to changes in natural vegetation and increased human activity. Preparedness programs and related outreach initiatives can support neighborhood growth while enhancing residents’ ability to respond to these events.

Environmental engineers and scientists Marta Yebra (@Myebra12), Robert Mahony, and Robert Debus (@BobDebus1) of the Australian National University describe some of the high-tech options for early fire detection and rapid ignition suppression, ranging from sensors, cameras, aerial vehicles, and satellites, that can increase safety for firefighters or ground crews, but work is needed to assess the benefits and costs related to implementation.

A team led by Matthew Kasoar and Oliver Perkins of the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society argue that global fire models overwhelmingly frame people’s ignition of fires as random events versus being actively planned and put out. Their data supports the idea that more useful models, while challenging to develop, would represent fires that spread naturally as well as those being managed by humans.

Ultrafine particles emitted from wildfire smoke are typically assumed to have little environmental consequence since they can be taken in by larger particles, but this study, led by Manish Shrivastava of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Jiwen Fan of the Argonne National Laboratory, found abundant ultrafine particles in vegetation fires in the Amazon and that these may intensify cloud formation and heavy rain.

US Geological Survey fellow Aaron Russell and colleagues explore use cases from New Jersey to California for intentionally setting fires as a method of harm reduction and risk mitigation. They recommend a framework that decision-makers can use to better collaborate among diverse stakeholders to plan and regulate burn events that considers each region’s unique goals, climate conditions, and social factors.

A team led by paleoecologist Yoshi Maezumi (@yoshi_maezumi) of the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology presents how American and European cultures can draw inspiration from indigenous custodianship of land to bridge gaps with Western science that can often prioritize fighting fires over fostering resilience through fire management.

A rise in intense fires requires new models that account for altered weather patterns and increased fuel flammability, argue climate-ecosystems interactions researcher Stijn Hantson, of the University of Rosario in Colombia, and colleagues. They say that resolving gaps between scientific research and policy application can lead to better frameworks to protect nature and people from the impacts of wildfires on at-risk communities.

Earth system scientists Yang Chen and James Randerson of the University of California, Irvine, along with Douglas Morton of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, examine how remote sensors are applied to produce fire event data. They compare the tools available that can effectively estimate burn areas, fire emissions, and fire spread and describe the promise of these technologies to establish global databases.

Nine experts ranging from Australia, Botswana, Chile, Germany, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States answer questions related to what aspects of fire hazard, vulnerability, and exposure can be mitigated and what collaborations this requires

Laura Steil, a forestry officer at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and Wayne Cascio, director of the Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment at the US Environmental Protection Agency, answer questions related to increasing fire risk, how it can be managed, affected communities, and how institutions are preparing.

Artist Suze Woolf depicts the trails of mountain pine beetles in a book made of a tree log impacted by the insects. A bar chart on the piece represents affected forested areas in British Columbia and Alberta from 1999 to 2007 and illustrates how a warming world and increase in forest fires is causing the beetles, which feed on dead tree wood, to propagate.

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One Earth (@OneEarth_CP), published by Cell Press, is a monthly journal that features high-quality research that seeks to understand and address today’s environmental Grand Challenges, publishing across the spectrum of environmental change and sustainability science. Visit http://www.cell.com/one-earth.

Cell Reports Sustainability (@CellRepSustain), published by Cell Press, is a monthly gold open access journal that publishes high-quality research and discussion that contribute to understanding and responding to environmental, social-ecological, technological, and energy- and health-related challenges. Visit https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/home.

 

Restoring the Great Salt Lake would have environmental justice as well as ecological benefits



CELL PRESS
Kite flying at the Great Salt Lake in Utah 

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KITE FLYING AT THE GREAT SALT LAKE IN UTAH

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CREDIT: SARA GRINESKI




Inland seas around the world are drying up due to increasing human water use and accelerating climate change, and their desiccation is releasing harmful dust that pollutes the surrounding areas during acute dust storms. Using the Great Salt Lake in Utah as a case study, researchers show that dust exposure was highest among Pacific Islanders and Hispanic people and lower in white people compared to all other racial/ethnic groups, and higher for individuals without a high school diploma. Restoring the lake would benefit everyone in the vicinity by reducing dust exposure, and it would also decrease the disparities in exposure between different racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups. These results are reported June 21 in the journal One Earth.

“People here in Utah are concerned about the lake for a variety of reasons—the ski industry, the brine shrimp, the migratory birds, recreation—and this study adds environmental justice and the equity implications of the drying lake to the conversation,” says first author and sociologist Sara Grineski of the University of Utah. “If we can raise the levels of the lake via some coordinated policy responses, we can reduce our exposure to dust, which is good for everyone's health, and we can also reduce the disparity between groups.”

The Great Salt Lake has been steadily drying since the mid-1980’s, exposing its dry lakebed to atmospheric weathering and wind. Previous studies have shown that dust emissions from drying salt lakes produce fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which is associated with numerous health effects and is the leading environmental cause of human mortality worldwide.

“We know that the dust from these drying lakes is very unhealthy for us, so the question becomes, what does that mean in terms of people's exposure to the dust, and what does it mean in terms of inequalities in exposure to that dust,” says Grineski. “Are some people more likely to have to suffer the consequences to a greater degree?”

To answer this question, Grineski teamed up with a multidisciplinary group including atmospheric scientists, geographers, and biologists. They started by using a model to investigate how dust pollution would change if the lake became even dryer, or if its levels rose to a healthy level. The model simulated how much dust would be created by erosion under different lake-level scenarios  and how wind would distribute this dust in three counties surrounding the Great Salt Lake. Then, the team combined the model’s outputs with demographic data from the 2020 U.S. Decennial Census and American Community Survey to examine whether the severity of dust exposure is associated with racial/ethnic groups or socioeconomic status.

During a typical dust storm, the team found that at the lake’s current level, people in the Great Salt Valley are exposed to 26 μg/mof dust PM2.5 on average, which is higher than the World Health Organization’s threshold of 15 μg/m3 (though lower than the less stringent U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards threshold of 35 μg/m3). If the lake were to dry up completely, average exposure during dust storms would increase to 32 μg/m3, but restoring the lake to a healthy level would decrease the average exposure to 24 μg/m3.

 

They also showed that some groups within the population are exposed to disproportionate levels of dust. Exposure was highest in Pacific Islanders and Hispanic people, and higher in people without a high school diploma (one metric of socioeconomic status), though there was no association between the risk of dust exposure and income level or home ownership.

Raising the lake’s level would decrease the disparities between groups, thus helping to alleviate one form of environmental injustice within the region, though Grineski notes that the valley is home to other social disparities in pollution exposure.

“If the lake’s level rises, the dust drops, and the disparity in exposure narrows for race/ethnicity and education,” says Grineski.

In the future, the team would like to investigate how potential future changes to the region’s population size and shape might influence who is most exposed to dust from the lake. Ultimately, they hope their results will help guide local policy makers to prioritize re-filling the Great Salt Lake.

“If we were to enact policy and conservation measures to raise the lake, we would benefit not only in terms of decreased dust, but in terms of less dramatic disparities between who is breathing in more of this dust,” says Grineski. “It’s important to consider the environmental justice implications of different choices that we might make in the policy arena when we think about different strategies for adaptation and mitigation to climate change.”

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This research was supported by the National Science Foundation.

One Earth, Grineski et al. “Harmful dust from drying lakes: Preserving Great Salt Lake (USA) water levels decreases ambient dust and racial disparities in population exposure” https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(24)00249-5 

One Earth (@OneEarth_CP), published by Cell Press, is a monthly journal that features papers from the fields of natural, social, and applied sciences. One Earth is the home for high-quality research that seeks to understand and address today’s environmental Grand Challenges, publishing across the spectrum of environmental change and sustainability science. A sister journal to CellChem, and JouleOne Earth aspires to break down barriers between disciplines and stimulate the cross-pollination of ideas with a platform that unites communities, fosters dialogue, and encourages transformative research. Visit http://www.cell.com/one-earth. To receive Cell Press media alerts, contact press@cell.com.

 

Study challenges popular idea that Easter islanders committed ‘ecocide’



Inhabitants found Ingenious ways to adapt to a harsh environment



COLUMBIA CLIMATE SCHOOL

Lithic Mulching 

IMAGE: 

SO-CALLED ROCK GARDENS WERE KEY TO FEEDING THE POPULATION OF RAPA NUI, TODAY COMMONLY KNOWN AS EASTER ISLAND. ROBERT DINAPOLI, COAUTHOR OF A NEW STUDY ON THE GARDENS, INSPECTS ONE. 

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CREDIT: PHOTO BY CARL LIPO





Some 1,000 years ago, a small band of Polynesians sailed thousands of miles across the Pacific to settle one of the world’s most isolated places—a small, previously uninhabited island they named Rapa Nui. There, they erected hundreds of “moai,” or gigantic stone statues that now famously stand as emblems of a vanished civilization. Eventually, their numbers ballooned to unsustainable levels; they chopped down all the trees, killed off the seabirds, exhausted the soils and in the end, ruined their environment. Their population and civilization collapsed, with just a few thousand people remaining when Europeans found the island in 1722 and called it Easter Island. At least that is the longtime story, told in academic studies and popular books like Jared Diamond’s 2005 “Collapse.”

A new study challenges this narrative of ecocide, saying that Rapa Nui’s population never spiraled to unsustainable levels. Instead, the settlers found ways to cope with the island’s severe limits, and maintained a small, stable population for centuries. The evidence: a newly sophisticated inventory of ingenious “rock gardens” where the islanders raised highly nutritious sweet potatoes, a staple of their diet. The gardens covered only enough area to support a few thousand people, say the researchers. The study was just published in the journal Science Advances.

“This shows that the population could never have been as big as some of the previous estimates,” said lead author Dylan Davis, a postdoctoral researcher in archaeology at the Columbia Climate School. “The lesson is the opposite of the collapse theory. People were able to be very resilient in the face of limited resources by modifying the environment in a way that helped.”

Easter Island is arguably the remotest inhabited spot on Earth, and one of the last to be settled by humans, if not the last. The nearest continental landmass is central Chile, nearly 2,200 miles to the east. Some 3,200 miles to the west lie the tropical Cook Islands, where settlers are thought to have sailed from around 1200 CE.

The 63-square-mile island is made entirely of volcanic rock, but unlike lush tropical islands such as Hawaii and Tahiti, eruptions ceased hundreds of thousands of years ago, and mineral nutrients brought up by lava have long since eroded from soils. Located in the subtropics, the island is also dryer than its tropical brethren. To make things more challenging, surrounding ocean waters drop off steeply, meaning islanders had to work harder to harvest marine creatures than those living on Polynesian islands ringed with accessible and productive lagoons and reefs.

To cope, the settlers used a technique called rock gardening, or lithic mulching. This consists of scattering rocks over low-lying surfaces that are at least partly protected from salt spray and wind. In the interstices between rocks, they planted sweet potatoes. Research has shown that rocks from golf ball–size to boulders disrupt drying winds and create turbulent airflow, reducing the highest daytime surface temperatures and increasing the lowest nighttime ones. Smaller bits, broken up by hand, expose fresh surfaces laden with mineral nutrients that get released into the soil as they weather. Some islanders still use the gardens, but even with all this labor, their productivity is marginal. The technique has also been used by indigenous people in New Zealand, the Canary Islands and the U.S. Southwest, among other places.

Some scientists have argued that the island’s population had to have once been much larger than the 3,000 or so residents first observed by Europeans in part because of the massive moai; it would have taken hordes of people to construct them, the reasoning goes. Thus in recent years, researchers have tried estimating these populations in part by investigating the rock gardens’ extent and production capacity. Early Europeans estimated they covered 10% of the island. A 2013 study based on visual and near-infrared satellite imagery came up with 2.5% to 12.5%―a wide margin of error because these spectra distinguish only areas of rock versus vegetation, not all of which are gardens. Another study in 2017 identified about some 7,700 acres, or 19% of the island, as suitable for sweet potatoes. Making various assumptions about crop yields and other factors, studies have estimated past populations might have risen as high as 17,500, or even 25,000, though they also could have been much lower.

In the new study, members of the research team did on-the-ground surveys of rock gardens and their characteristics over a five-year period. Using this data, they then trained a series of machine-learning models to detect gardens through satellite imagery tuned to newly available shortwave infrared spectra, which highlights not just rocks, but places of higher soil moisture and nitrogen, which are key features of gardens.

The researchers concluded that rock gardens occupy only about 188 acres—less than one half a percent of the island. They say they might have missed some small ones, but not enough to make a big difference. Making a series of assumptions, they say that if the entire diet were based on sweet potatoes, these gardens may have supported about 2,000 people. However, based on isotopes found in bones and teeth and other evidence, people in the past probably managed to get 35% to 45% of their diet from marine sources, and a small amount from other less nutritious crops including bananas, taro and sugar cane. Factoring in these sources would have raised the population carrying capacity to about 3,000―the number observed upon European contact.

“There are natural rock outcrops all over the place that had been misidentified as rock gardens in the past. The short-wave imagery gives a different picture,” said Davis.

Carl Lipo, an archaeologist at Binghamton University and coauthor of the study, said that the population boom-and-bust idea is “still percolating in the public mind” and in fields including ecology, but archaeologists are quietly retreating from it. Accumulating evidence based on radiocarbon dating of artifacts and human remains does not support the idea of huge populations, he said. “People’s lifestyle must have been incredibly laborious,” he said. “Think about sitting around breaking up rocks all day.”

The island’s population is now nearly 8,000 (plus about 100,000 tourists a year). Most food is now imported, but some residents still grow sweet potatoes in the ancient gardens―a practice that grew during the 2020-2021 lockdowns of the Covid pandemic, when imports were restricted. Some also turned to mainland farming techniques, plowing soils and applying artificial fertilizer. But this is not likely to be sustainable, said Lipo, as it will further deplete the thin soil cover.

Seth Quintus, an anthropologist at the University of Hawaii who was not involved in the study, said he sees the island as “a good case study in human behavioral adaptation in the face of a dynamic environment.” The new study and others like it “provide an opportunity to better document the nature and extent of strategies of adaptation,” he said. “Surviving in the more arid subtropics on the more isolated and geologically old Rapa Nui was a heck of a challenge.”

The study was also coauthored by Robert DiNapoli of Binghamton University; Gina Pakarati, an independent researcher on Rapa Nui; and Terry Hunt of the University of Arizona.

# # #

Hundreds of huge stone statues known as moai built by earlier residents are taken by some as evidence of a onetime much larger population.

CREDIT

Photo by Stephanie Morcinek via Unsplash

 

Tax the rich, say a majority of adults across 17 G20 countries surveyed



Across 17 G20 countries surveyed, a majority of adults (68% ) support the policy proposal where wealthy people pay a higher tax on their wealth, as a means of funding major changes to our economy and lifestyles



Reports and Proceedings

THE CLUB OF ROME

Wealthy people pay a higher tax on their wealth 

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Q16. TO WHAT EXTENT IF AT ALL WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE FOLLOWING PROPOSALS AS MEANS OF FUNDING MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR ECONOMY AND LIFESTYLES?

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CREDIT: EARTH FOR ALL SURVEY 2024, IPSOS




A new survey of adult citizens in 18 of the world’s largest economies has revealed majority support for tax reforms and broader political and economic reform. (Not all questions were asked in China, as indicated when findings reference 17 G20 countries.)

Around two-thirds (68%) of citizens across 17[1] G20 countries surveyed back a wealth tax on wealthy people as a means of funding major changes to our economy and lifestyle, with only 11% opposed, while 70% support higher rates of income tax on wealthy people, and 69% favour higher tax rates on large businesses, according to the survey conducted by Ipsos.

Support for a wealth tax on wealthy people is highest in Indonesia (86%), Turkey (78%), the UK (77%) and India (74%). Support is lowest in Saudi Arabia (54%), and Argentina (54%), but still over half the respondents surveyed. In the United States, France and Germany around two in three of those surveyed support a wealth tax on wealthy people (67%, 67% and 68% respectively).

Results also show that when thinking about climate change and protecting nature, 71% of citizens in 18 G20 countries surveyed believe the world needs to act immediately, within a decade to reduce carbon emissions from electricity, transport, food, industry and buildings. This rises to 91% of Mexicans, 83% of South Africans and 81% of Brazilians surveyed. This belief is lowest – but still over half of respondents – in Saudi Arabia (52%), Japan (53%), the United States (62%) and Italy (62%).

The findings come as finance ministers from G20 countries, including the United States, China, and India, prepare to meet in Brazil this July. For the first time, a wealth tax is on the agenda as these nations deliberate on strategies to address economic and environmental challenges.

The survey, commissioned by Earth4All and the Global Commons Alliance, explored support for economic and political transformation in 18 of the G20 nations.

The survey highlighted broad support for using additional tax revenues to fund policy proposals to changes to our economy and lifestyles. Key areas with strong support include green energy initiatives, universal healthcare and strengthening workers’ rights. Even less popular proposals, such as universal basic income and investment in citizens' assemblies to strengthen democracy, attract support from about half of respondents.

Owen Gaffney, co-lead of the Earth4All initiative, stated, “The message to politicians could not be clearer. The vast majority of people we surveyed in the world’s largest economies believe major immediate action is needed this decade to tackle climate change and protect nature. At the same time many feel the economy is not working for them and want political and economic reform. It’s possible this may well help explain the rise in populist leaders.”

“Our survey results provide a clear mandate from those across the G20 countries surveyed: redistribute wealth.  Greater equality will build stronger democracies to drive a fair transformation for a more stable planet.”

Jane Madgwick, Executive Director at the Global Commons Alliance, echoed this urgency, saying, "Science demands a giant leap to address the planetary crisis, climate change and to protect nature. And 71% of citizens in 18 G20 countries surveyed support immediate action within the next decade to reduce carbon emissions.”

In 17[2] G20 countries surveyed, a majority of people believe economies should move beyond a singular focus on economic growth.

68% of those across 17[3] G20 countries surveyed agree that the way their country’s economy works should prioritise the health and wellbeing of people and nature rather than focusing solely on profit and increasing wealth. Furthermore, 62% agree that a country's economic success should be measured by the health and wellbeing of its citizens, not how fast the economy is growing.

Trust in government is low, with only 39% of people in 17 G20 countries surveyed believing their government can be trusted to make decisions for the benefit of the majority of people, and just 37% trusting their government to make long-term decisions that will benefit the majority of people 20 or 30 years from now.

There is a notable demand for reform of national and global political and economic systems. In the 17 G20 countries surveyed, 65% of respondents believe their national political system needs major changes (36%) or to be completely reformed (29%). A similar proportion (67%) feel the same about their country’s economic system (41% that it needs major changes and 27% that it needs to be completely reformed).

Sandrine Dixson-Declève, executive chair of Earth4All and co-president of the Club of Rome said, “This survey proves once again that the majority of citizens across G20 countries believe it is time for an economy that delivers greater wellbeing, more climate solutions and less inequality. But the results also show a lack of trust in government especially in Europe. With the recent European elections moving towards the radical right, we need to hold governments accountable to introduce an economy that services people and planet at the same time.”

The survey also asked whether people are optimistic or pessimistic about their future. On average, 62% of people in 18 G20 countries surveyed are optimistic about their own future. However, only 44% feel positive about their country’s future, while 38% are optimistic about the future of the world. Participants in emerging economies like Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, and India, along with those in China and Saudi Arabia are the most optimistic while participants in Europe and those in Japan and South Korea tend to be less optimistic.

 

How quickly does the world need to act? 

[1] Question not asked in China.

[2] Question not asked in China.

[3] Question not asked in China.