The Great Lakes are in an extreme new era

Heat waves and cold spells are now more common on the Great Lakes, according to U-M research, with implications for the region's weather, economy and ecology

University of Michigan

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The frequency and intensity of heatwaves and cold spells in the Great Lakes, seen as spikes in these graphs, entered a new regime in the 1990s, according to new research led by the University of Michigan. Using a measurement called degree days that combines the magnitude and duration of a temperature anomaly, the researchers showed the median value more than doubled following a "phase shift" shown as a red line (similar plots are available for all of the Great Lakes).

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Credit: Adapted with permission from Abdelhady, H.U., et al. Commun Earth Environ, 2025, DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02341-x (Used under a CC BY 4.0 license)

Heat waves and cold spells are part of life on the Great Lakes. But new research from the University of Michigan shows that is true today in a fundamentally different way than it was even 30 years ago.

"The appearance of these extreme temperatures is increasing," said Hazem Abdelhady, a postdoctoral research fellow in the U-M School for Environment and Sustainability, or SEAS. "For most lakes, the appearance is up more than 100% compared with before 1998." That timing is significant because it coincides with the 1997-1998 El Niño, which is one of the strongest on record, he added.

To reveal this trend, Abdelhady and his colleagues developed a state-of-the-art approach to modeling the surface temperature of the Great Lakes, which allowed them to study heat waves and cold spells dating back to 1940. The surface water temperature of the Great Lakes plays an important role in the weather, which is an obvious concern for residents, travelers and shipping companies in the region.But the uptick in extreme temperature events could also disrupt ecosystems and economies supported by the lakes in more subtle ways, Abdelhady said.

"These types of events can have huge impacts on the fishing industry, which is a billion-dollar industry, for example," Abdelhady said. Tribal, recreational and commercial fishing in the Great Lakes account for a total value of more than $7 billion annually, according to the Great Lakes Fishery Commission.

While fish can swim to cooler or warmer waters to tolerate gradual temperature changes, the same isn't always true for sudden jumps in either direction, Abdelhady said. Fish eggs are particularly susceptible to abnormal temperature spikes or drops.

Hot and cold streaks can also disrupt the natural mixing and stratifying cycles of the lakes, which affects the health and water quality of lakes that people rely on for recreation and drinking water.

Now that the researchers have revealed these trends on each of the Great Lakes, they're working to build on that to predict future extreme temperature events as the average temperature of the lakes—and planet—continue to warm. In studying those events and their connections with global climate phenomena, such as El Niños and La Niñas, we can better prepare to brace for their impact, Abdelhady said.

"If we can understand these events, we can start thinking about how to protect against them," Abdelahdy said.

The study was conducted through the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, or CIGLR, and published in Communications Earth & Environment, part of the Nature journal family. The work was supported by the National Science Foundation, its Global Centers program and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

Capturing the greatness of the lakes

One of the challenges of this work was the size of the problem itself. Although researchers have developed computer models that can simulate processes in most lakes around the world, the Great Lakes aren't most lakes. 

For starters, they're an interconnected system of five lakes. They also contain more than a fifth of the world's fresh surface water. And the length of their shoreline is comparable to that of the U.S.'s entire Atlantic coast—including the gulf states.

In many regards, the Great Lakes have more in common with coastal oceans than with other lakes, said study coauthor Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, who is an associate research scientist with SEAS and CIGLR.

"We can't use the traditional, simpler models for the Great Lakes because they really don't do well," Fujisaki-Manome said.

So Abdelhady turned to modeling approaches used to study coastal oceans and tailored them for the Great Lakes. But there was also a data hurdle to overcome in addition to the modeling challenges.

Satellites have enabled routine direct observations of the Great Lakes starting about 45 years ago, Fujisaki-Manome said. But when talking about climate trends and epochs, researchers need to work with longer time periods.

"The great thing with this study is we were able to extend that historical period by almost double," Fujisaki-Manome said.

By working with available observational data and trusted data from global climate simulations, Abdelhady could model Great Lakes temperature data and validate it with confidence back to 1940.

"That's why we use modeling a lot of the time. We want to know about the past or the future or a point in space we can't necessarily get to," said coauthor Drew Groneworld, an associate professor in SEAS and a leader of the Global Center for Climate Change and Transboundary Waters. "With the Great Lakes, we have all three of those."

David Cannon, an assistant research scientist with CIGRL, and Jia Wang, a climatologist and oceanographer with NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, also contributed to the study. The study is a perfect example of how collaborations between universities and government science agencies can create a flow of knowledge that benefits the public and the broader research community, Gronewold said.

The team's model is now available for other research groups studying the Great Lakes to explore their questions. For the team at U-M, its next steps are using the model to explore spatial differences across smaller areas of the Great Lakes and using the model to look forward in time.

"I'm very curious if we can anticipate the next big shift or the next big tipping point," Gronewold said. "We didn't anticipate the last one. Nobody predicted that, in 1997, there was going to be a warm-winter El Niño that changed everything."

Red boxes show the intensity of heat waves, while blue boxes show the intensity of cold spells on Lake Superior, the fastest warming of the Great Lakes, since 1940. Black lines indicate "breakpoints" or significant shifts in trends (similar plots are available for all of the Great Lakes).

Credit

Adapted with permission from Abdelhady, H.U., et al. Commun. Earth Environ., 2025, DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02341-x

Journal

Communications Earth & Environment

DOI

10.1038/s43247-025-02341-x 

Article Title

Climate change-induced amplification of extreme temperatures in large lakes

 

The atmosphere’s growing thirst is making droughts worse, even where it rains

Increasing atmospheric evaporative demand outpaces rising precipitation rates due to warming

University of California - Santa Barbara

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(Santa Barbara, Calif.) — Hot air holds more moisture. That’s why you can blow your hair dry even after a steamy shower. It’s also what dumps rain in the tropics and sucks water from desert soils.

A new study, published in Nature, shows that the atmosphere’s growing thirst for water is making droughts more severe, even in places where rainfall has stayed the same. The paper details how this “thirst” has made droughts 40% more severe across the globe over the course of the past 40 years.

“Drought is based on the difference between water supply (from precipitation) and atmospheric water demand. Including the latter reveals substantial increases in drought as the atmosphere warms,” said co-author Chris Funk, director of the Climate Hazards Center at UC Santa Barbara.

The hidden force behind worsening droughts

Droughts are usually blamed on a dearth of rain. But scientists have discovered another factor at work: warming air is increasing the atmosphere’s evaporative demand. Atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) acts like a sponge, soaking up moisture faster than it can be replaced. This can pull more water out of soils, rivers and plants.

It’s not clear whether a warmer atmosphere will make droughts more or less intense, frequent and widespread. “As the atmosphere warms, air at a constant relative humidity will hold more water vapor, so rainfall may increase,” Funk explained. “But at the same time, atmospheric evaporative demand is also expected to increase. So which is increasing more quickly?”

Funk joined an international team of scientists to examine the role AED is playing in exacerbating droughts around the world.

A new way to measure drought’s growing danger

Scientists knew AED was important, but few studies had carefully measured its global impact using real-world observations, making it harder to predict and prepare for droughts. This new study used a set of high-resolution data covering more than a century, and applied advanced methods to track how AED has increased and how much worse it has made droughts.

“We face a big challenge,” explained lead author Solomon Gebrechorkos, a hydro-climatologist at University of Oxford. “There’s no direct way to measure how ‘thirsty’ the atmosphere is over time. So, we used high-resolution climate data, identified through a comprehensive global evaluation, and applied the most advanced models for atmospheric evaporative demand — models that account for multiple climate variables, not just temperature.”

The team compared water supply, based on precipitation, and atmospheric evaporative demand using multiple world-class datasets. They then looked at changes in the standardized data, evaluating these changes over time. “This allowed us to compare wet and dry regions using a common framework,” Funk explained. The authors then identified statistically significant increases in drought.

They found that AED has increased faster than precipitation rates, suggesting an alarming tendency towards drier conditions. “I find these results very concerning, but perhaps not terribly surprising,” Funk said. “Most of us are familiar with how air temperatures are increasing rapidly, but most people may not realize the connections between this warming and the desiccating influence of the atmosphere.” In warm areas, raising the temperature by just a couple degrees can dramatically increase the atmosphere's ability to draw moisture from crops, rangelands and forests, he added.

Understanding drought in a warming world

This study reinforces past work showing that droughts will become more intense in a warming world. This has implications for global food and water security, which may in turn amplify political instability and conflict. Easier to see are more direct links between increased AED and wildfire. A thirsty atmosphere desiccates plants, which contributes to larger wildfires.

Looking into the future, this study underscores the importance of early warning systems, drought risk management and effective anticipatory actions. Predicting droughts, and increased atmospheric demand, can trigger effective interventions. For example, farmers might use micro-irrigation or water-retentive soil treatments to offset increased AED. “To counter increasing drought trends, we need to anticipate and manage the extreme events that lead to concerning increases in drought risk,” Funk said. 

Researchers are also interested in uncovering how evaporation and atmospheric demand interact with water supplies, not just rainfall patterns. Scientists will need to study how farmers, cities and ecosystems can adapt to a world where the atmosphere constantly demands more moisture.

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Journal

Nature

 

Syntato awarded ARIA funding to advance chromosome engineering in crops

Medical Research Council (MRC) Laboratory of Medical Sciences

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Syntato originated from the Synthetic Biology laboratory at the LMS, embedded within the Hammersmith Campus at Imperial College London, led by Dr Karen Sarkisyan, an expert in bioengineering with a track record in translating emerging genetic technologies into real-life products. Karen previously co-founded Light Bio, which successfully commercialised the world’s first glow-in-the-dark ornamental plant and gained global attention, with its product Firefly Petunia featured in numerous global media outlets, as well as on the cover of TIME magazine. 

Syntato’s project is one of several initiatives funded by ARIA’s Synthetic Plants Program, launched to catalyse a new generation of major crops that are more productive, resilient and sustainable. Syntato will focus on reducing the cost and iteration time of chromosome engineering by making chromosomes modular and reusable. The project is a joint effort with a Valencian biotechnology company Madeinplant, co-founded by synthetic biologists Dr Diego Orzaez and Dr Marta Vázquez Vilar, and the London Biofoundry, led by Dr Marko Storch. The collaboration enables all sides to combine expertise and technologies to achieve the ambitious goal of building a synthetic chromosome and using it to create a new potato variety in three years. 

Chromosome-scale engineering is becoming the enabling infrastructure of plant biotechnology—much as chip fabrication underpins modern electronics—because it allows entire suites of adaptive crop traits to be built and deployed as a single, modular unit. Custom-designed chromosomes leave the native genome intact, yet deliver system-level improvements in one step, turning future crop development from incremental gene edits into rapid, scalable platform design. 

“Chromosome-scale engineering is an essential technology to master if we are serious about creating crops that are adaptive to climate changes, more productive and able to resist pests and diseases without any sprayed chemicals. ARIA’s backing, together with the continued support of translational work from the LMS, allows us to realistically approach this challenge,” says Karen.  

The project centers around automation of plant cell culture work, facilitating high-throughput assessment of chromosome design prototypes. To enable this work, Syntato has partnered with Briefly.Bio, a provider of a unique AI-powered interface for lab automation. The long-term contract with Briefly will allow Syntato’s scientists to modularly configure their robotic pipeline, quickly and independently. 

Located at the heart of Imperial College London’s ecosystem for synthetic biology startups, Syntato is establishing a partnership with the Bezos Centre for Sustainable Protein to explore food-related applications of this new technology platform. 

Global Virus Network issues scientific guidance on new COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1 and vaccine protection

Scientific collaboration, accurate public communication, and continued investment in prevention tools are critical in navigating the evolving COVID-19 landscape

Global Virus Network

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The Global Virus Network (GVN) is closely monitoring the emergence of a newly identified SARS-CoV-2 variant, NB.1.8.1, a sublineage of the Omicron family.  This variant was first identified in January 2025 and has rapidly spread across Asia and into other regions, including parts of the United States. The World Health Organization (WHO) has designated NB.1.8.1 as a Variant Under Monitoring due to its increasing prevalence and potential public health implications. Based on current evidence, GVN advises vigilance, not alarm, and reinforces the critical role of vaccination in preventing severe disease and death.

Similar to previous Omicron subvariants, NB.1.8.1 contains spike protein mutations associated with increased transmissibility. However, no evidence suggests that NB.1.8.1 causes more severe illness or significantly evades vaccine-induced or natural immunity. Early laboratory and clinical data indicate that updated COVID-19 vaccines, including bivalent and XBB-based boosters, protect against severe outcomes such as hospitalization and death. There is no evidence at this time that NB.1.8.1 causes more severe illness than previous variants.

Breakthrough infections may occur, particularly among individuals with waning immunity or those who are unvaccinated. Nevertheless, vaccines remain highly effective in reducing serious illness and death. Antiviral treatments such as nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) and remdesivir demonstrate efficacy against a range of Omicron subvariants, including BQ.1, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1.5.

NB.1.8.1 has been linked to significant increases in COVID-19 cases across several countries. According to the WHO, as of May 18, 2025, the NB.1.8.1 variant has been identified in 22 countries, accounting for 10.7% of global SARS-CoV-2 sequences submitted to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) during epidemiological week 17 (April 21–27, 2025). This marks a significant increase from 2.5% four weeks prior.

As of June 4, 2025, India reported 4,302 active COVID-19 infections, with nearly 300 new cases recorded within the previous 24 hours. States such as Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Gujarat, and especially Kerala have experienced a steady rise in cases. During the week of April 27 to May 3, 2025, nearly 6,000 individuals in Taiwan sought medical assistance at hospitals due to COVID-19-related symptoms. This marked a 78% increase from the previous week and represented the fourth consecutive week of rising case numbers. As of early June 2025, in the U.S., more than a dozen cases of the NB.1.8.1 subvariant have been identified in Washington State. The variant was first detected in the U.S. between late March and early April through routine screenings of international travelers at airports in California, Washington State, Virginia, and New York. Subsequent cases have been reported in Ohio, Rhode Island, and Hawaii. In the U.S., there have been about 300 deaths per week from COVID-19 in 2025 through May. Periodic summer surges are anticipated, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years.

GVN Supports the Following COVID-19 Vaccine Recommendations:

• Adults aged 65 and older, and individuals with underlying conditions, should receive an updated COVID-19 booster tailored to circulating variants.
• All individuals 6 months and older, including children and adolescents, are encouraged to stay current with vaccinations, especially ahead of the fall and winter respiratory seasons.
• Children 6 months to 17 years of age should receive an age-appropriate, updated COVID-19 vaccine dose if they have not already done so within the past year, as protection from earlier vaccines may wane over time. Pediatric vaccination helps prevent severe outcomes, including hospitalization and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C).
• Pregnant individuals are strongly encouraged to stay current on COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccination during pregnancy reduces the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization in infants by 61% and protects newborns for up to six months after birth—an especially important window given the high rate of emergency department visits for COVID-19 among infants. Studies have consistently shown that infection during pregnancy increases the risk of preterm birth, miscarriage, fetal death, and long-term neurodevelopmental issues. No safety concerns have been identified regarding vaccination in pregnancy or neonatal outcomes.
• Those not receiving a COVID-19 booster in the past year should consult a healthcare provider about updated vaccine timing and eligibility.
• Co-administration of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines is recommended when appropriate.
• Side effects from both COVID-19 and influenza vaccines are rare, and the cost-benefit of vaccination is heavily in favor of vaccination.
• The principal benefits of vaccination are preventing severe disease, rather than preventing infection itself.

The rapid global spread of NB.1.8.1 underscores the ongoing need for proactive surveillance, timely data sharing, and pandemic preparedness. The appearance of new variants is expected and does not signal a public health emergency. Instead, it is a call to action for continued scientific vigilance and proactive health measures.

GVN reiterates that this is an opportunity to prepare, not a reason to panic. Scientific collaboration, accurate public communication, and continued investment in prevention tools will remain critical in navigating the evolving COVID-19 landscape.

Media Contact:

Nora Samaranayake

nsamaranayake@gvn.org

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About the Global Virus Network

The Global Virus Network (GVN) is a worldwide coalition comprising 80+ Virology Centers of Excellence and Affiliates across 40+ countries, whose mission is to facilitate pandemic preparedness against viral pathogens and diseases that threaten public health globally. GVN advances knowledge of viruses through (i) data-driven research and solutions, (ii) fostering the next generation of virology leaders, and (iii) enhancing global resources for readiness and response to emerging viral threats. GVN provides the essential expertise required to discover and diagnose viruses that threaten public health, understand how such viruses spread illnesses, and facilitate the development of diagnostics, therapies, and treatments to combat them. GVN coordinates and collaborates with local, national, and international scientific institutions and government agencies to provide real-time virus informatics, surveillance, and response resources and strategies.  GVN's pandemic preparedness mission is achieved by focusing on Education & Training, Qualitative & Quantitative Research, and Global Health Strategies & Solutions. The GVN is a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization. For more information, please visit www.gvn.org

Critical step in COVID viral infection identified

Texas Biomedical Research Institute

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This transmission electron microscopy image shows 3a dense bodies (3DBs), the darkest parts of the image, inside a cell infected with SARS-CoV-2. 3DBs play a critical role regulating the processing of the virus’s spike protein, before the spike protein is assembled into complete viral particles.

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Credit: Jueqi Chen/University of Chicago

Researchers at Texas Biomedical Research Institute and University of Chicago have uncovered a mechanism that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, uses to protect itself inside the body as it works to replicate and infect more cells. Without this protective mechanism, viral infection is dramatically reduced.

The finding, published in Nature Communications, not only provides a potential target for new COVID-19 therapies but also offers insights that could inform future vaccine and antiviral development. The study builds on earlier work from Texas Biomed that identified the viral proteins that are most important for the virus’s pathogenicity, or ability to cause disease.

“In 2021, we found that the accessory protein ORF3a is one of the most important proteins for the virus and when we knock it out, the virus becomes much less harmful – but we didn’t know why,” said Texas Biomed Staff Scientist Chengjin Ye, Ph.D. “Now, working together with our collaborators at University of Chicago, we understand the mechanism.”

A dense security detail

Specifically, SARS-CoV-2 ORF3a appears to play a vital role in protecting structural proteins, most notably the spike protein that facilitates spread into other cells, as they are assembled on the surface of viral particles. It does this by driving the formation of a dense group of proteins that surround the spike protein and provide protection while in transit, much like security detail protecting a person or an armored vehicle carrying cash to the bank.

The team in Chicago, led by Assistant Professor Jueqi Chen, Ph.D., termed these protective complexes “3a dense bodies” or 3DBs for short.

It appears that 3DBs help prevent the spike protein from being cut into smaller components. When ORF3a is missing, these 3DBs fail to form, and the spike protein often arrives damaged, severely impairing the nascent virus’s ability to infect new cells.

“ORF3a could therefore be a good target for drugs to block the virus,” said Texas Biomed Professor Luis Martinez-Sobrido, Ph.D. “This discovery could also be instrumental for vaccine development, as we illustrated previously.”

A surprise evolution

Since the ORF3a gene is present in other coronaviruses, the team was curious if those viruses also sparked the formation of 3DBs. They found that 3DBs are formed by related coronaviruses carried by bats and pangolins. However, it was surprising to find that SARS-

CoV and coronaviruses found in civets do not, which could help explain the lower transmission and infection rates during the 2003 SARS outbreak compared to the COVID-19 pandemic. About 8,000 people were infected with SARS, while there are more than 770 million reported COVID-19 cases, according to the World Health Organization.

The research is a good example of multidisciplinary collaboration: Dr. Chen’s expertise in cellular biology and high-resolution microscopy complemented the virology and virus engineering experience of Drs. Ye and Martinez-Sobrido.

“After identifying the 3DB structures and pinpointing the ORF3a parts residues critical for 3DB assembly, we collaborated with Drs. Ye and Martinez-Sobrido to engineer an attenuated virus lacking the ability to form 3DB,” said Dr. Chen. “Coronaviruses have the largest genomes among RNA viruses and therefore the reverse genetics expertise of Drs. Ye and Martinez-Sobrido was critical for the functional studies of 3DB during infection.”

Next steps

Now that they have identified why ORF3a is so important, the two labs would like to dig deeper and figure out what is breaking apart the spike protein when left unprotected, which could reveal another avenue for therapeutic development. They would also like to study other SARS-CoV-2 variants to see if mutations in the ORF3a gene affect 3DB formation and infection rates.

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Paper:

Hartmann, S., Radochonski, L., Ye, C. et al. SARS-CoV-2 ORF3a drives dynamic dense body formation for optimal viral infectivity. Nat Commun 16, 4393 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59475-x

About Texas Biomed

Texas Biomed is a nonprofit research institute dedicated to protecting the global community from infectious diseases. Through basic research, preclinical testing and innovative partnerships, we accelerate diagnostics, therapies and vaccines for the world’s deadliest pathogens. Our San Antonio campus hosts high containment laboratories and the Southwest National Primate Research Center. Our scientists collaborate with industry and researchers globally, and have helped deliver the first COVID-19 vaccine, the first Ebola treatment and first Hepatitis C therapy.

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-025-59475-x 

Article Title

SARS-CoV-2 ORF3a drives dynamic dense body formation for optimal viral infectivity

Health care workforce recovery after the end of the COVID-19 emergency

JAMA Network

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About The Study: 

Health care employment growth decreased amid the pandemic but fully recovered by 2024. This recovery contrasts with non–health care employment trends and may result from health care financing via insurance coverage shielding health care employment from macroeconomic fluctuations. 

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Thuy Nguyen, PhD, email thuydn@umich.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jama.2025.8588)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2025.8588?guestAccessKey=2fc24583-102f-4efb-82a6-5bdb87cb7ed1&utm_source=for_the_media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=060525

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Journal

JAMA

Longitudinal outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic on youth physical fitness

JAMA Network Open

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About The Study: In this cohort study of schools, a COVID-19–related decline in youth physical fitness was observed. Compared with pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods, cardiorespiratory fitness and musculoskeletal fitness healthy fitness zone achievement were significantly lower during the pandemic, but the reduction did not appear to be associated with extended remote or hybrid environments.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Andjelka Pavlovic, PhD, email andjelka.pavlovic@ttuhsc.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.13721)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article

 http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.13721?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=060425

About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication. 

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Journal

JAMA Network Open