‘Impossible to achieve’: Automakers call on Ottawa to scrap EV mandates

By Joshua Santos
July 03, 2025 

As the federal government mandates automakers to ensure 20 per cent of their inventory is electric vehicles by 2026, manufacturers are calling on Ottawa to cancel the order citing poor sales amid the impact of tariffs from the United States.

Brian Kingston, president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, says the automotive industry in Canada is under a great deal of pressure right now. He says there’s “no way” the industry can meet the targets set out by Ottawa while facing trade tariffs.

“The EV mandate is impossible to achieve,” Kingston told BNN Bloomberg Thursday. “Twenty per cent of EV sales in 2026; we just hit sales of 8.7 per cent last month. There is simply no way to close that gap and if this regulation stays in place, automakers will have no choice but to start restricting internal combustion engine vehicle sales in Canada by the hundreds of thousands. This will be devastating to the industry and dealerships across Canada.”

Kingston joined several auto industry executives in a meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney on Wednesday to discuss trade tariffs while also urging the feds to get rid of the EV mandate. The mandate policy states that, as of next year, 20 per cent of all new light-duty vehicles sold in Canada must be zero-emission. That target rises annually to 100 per cent by 2035.Kingston says companies have made investments into the EV supply chain, but the demand is not there from consumers.

“These companies are committed to electrification,” said Kingston. “There are record numbers of EVs in the market. There are over 100 models now available in every size and segment. The challenge is the consumer demand is simply not there, and it has, in fact, been collapsing. Just to give you a sense of how big this gap is, an additional 180,000 EVs would need to be sold next year to hit that 20 per cent target. There is no way that is going to happen”.


The federal government’s zero-emission vehicle mandate is set to kick in next year. Automakers have expressed concern as electric vehicles remain more expensive than their gas-powered equivalents. Sales fell in the winter after the federal $5,000 vehicle rebates ran out of funding, the Canadian Press reported.

“We’re trying to transition into mass market adoption, so, think about your family with one vehicle that does a lot of driving. That’s a very different conversation, and that type of consumer has questions about charging infrastructure, vehicle range and, of course, price. And right now, we don’t have the infrastructure in place to hit mass adoption,” said Kingston.“We’ve got to get those preconditions right. Let’s work on building out the ecosystem. The consumer will come along. But if you mandate an arbitrary ratio, you’re setting the industry, and frankly, Canadians up for failure.”

The Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association represents Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Members work together to achieve shared industry objectives on a range of important issues such as trade, consumer protection, the environment and vehicle safety, according to their website. Collectively, they operate five vehicle assembly, engine and components plants and more than 1,300 dealerships.

Between January and March, zero-emissions vehicles made up only 8.11 per cent of all new vehicle sales in Canada, a drop from the 16.5 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024, Statistics Canada data showed.

The monthly share of new vehicle sales going to EVs never dropped below 10.65 per cent in 2024 and peaked at 18.29 per cent in December.In April of 2025, the month for which Statistics Canada has the most recent data, EV sales dropped to 7.53 per cent of all new vehicle sales in Canada.

Kingston said automakers already comply with stringent emissions standards in Canada that require electrification. He said Canada needs to build out the infrastructure, help Canadians install home chargers, build up an electricity grid and make sure there is enough clean, affordable and reliable electricity across the country before mandating electric vehicles.

Kingston said that if automakers can’t meet the 2026 target, they’ll have to pull about one million gas-powered vehicles from the market to comply with the sales mandate.

“The mandate has to be repealed before it does massive damage to this industry and the Canadian economy,” says Kingston.

With files from the Canadian Press

Joshua Santos
Journalist, BNNBloomberg.ca

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

France fines Shein 40 million euros over ‘deceptive’ sales practices

WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS

By AFP
 July 03, 2025 

A page from the Shein website is shown in this photo, in New York on June 23, 2023.

 (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

PARIS, France — France announced Thursday a record 40 million-euro fine against e-commerce giant Shein over “deceptive commercial practices” after a competition inquiry, saying it misled customers on price deals and on its environmental impact.

The French competition and anti-fraud office said the investigation found Shein used “deceptive commercial practices towards consumers regarding... price reductions”, with the fine handed down with the blessing of the Paris prosecutor’s office.

The DGCCRF competition office said the nearly year-long probe found that the firm raised certain prices before lowering them.

It added that the China-founded retailer had accepted the fine.

“These practices of greatly discounted prices and permanent promotions give consumers the impression they’re getting a great deal,” said the DGCCRF.

If found that 11 percent of advertised discounts it checked “were actually price increases”.

In 57 percent of cases Shein’s advertised promotions actually offered “no price reduction” and in 19 percent of cases the price drop “less significant than announced”.

Launched in France in 2015, Shein has seen phenomenal growth in recent years and took its share in the domestic clothing and footwear last year to three percent from two in 2021 -- a significant slice in what is a notably fragmented market.

The company, which has become a figurehead for the downside of “ultrafast fashion,” is decried in some quarters for causing environmental pollution as well as indulging in unfair competition and allowing poor working conditions.

In a statement to AFP, Shein said it had put into action “without delay” necessary corrective action inside two months on learning of the DGCCRF probe against in March of last year.

It added it took its legal and regulatory obligations in France “very seriously” and was committed to transparency.

AFP

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Fintrac imposes $544,500 penalty on investment firm Canaccord Genuity

By The Canadian Press
 July 03, 2025 

The logo for Canaccord Genuity  in Toronto 

OTTAWA — Canada’s financial watchdog says Canaccord Genuity Corp. has paid a $544,500 fine after a compliance examination in 2023.

The Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada says the penalty was for violations under the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act and associated regulations.

Market chart of CF:CT
CF:CT
$10.53+0.10+0.96%

As of:July 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM

Fintrac says Canaccord Genuity failed to submit suspicious transaction reports where there were reasonable grounds to suspect that transactions or attempted transactions were related to a money laundering or terrorist financing.Real-time TSX market updates here

It also says the firm failed to develop and apply written compliance policies and procedures that are kept up to date and approved by a senior officer.

Fintrac added that Canaccord Genuity failed to assess and document the risk of a money laundering or terrorist financing and failed to take special measures for high risk situations.

Canaccord Genuity did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

---

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 3, 2025.

Ontario Home insurance rate transparency needed as extreme weather costs rise: complaint

By The Canadian Press
July 03, 2025 

Neighbours deal with the flooding on Cordella Avenue after a severe thunderstorm caused localized flooding in Toronto on Wednesday, July 8, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Carlos Osorio

Ontario’s financial services regulator should be more active on the issue of rising home insurance rates because of extreme weather, says a complaint filed Thursday.

The submission by an advocacy group to the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA) says the rising frequency of floods and wildfires because of climate change is pushing rates towards unaffordable levels — and cutting some homeowners off entirely — and the regulator should be looking more into the concerning trend.

“What we’re asking for, first and foremost, is just for FSRA to look at this issue, and investigate it,” said Kiera Taylor, senior policy analyst at the advocacy group Investors for Paris Compliance (I4PC).

“At a minimum, we want FSRA to consider public disclosure of rate changes like they do with auto insurance, so there’s increased transparency.”

The regulator, whose mandate includes upholding fair treatment of insurance customers, provides insights on the auto insurance side through disclosure and analysis on what’s leading rates higher, but does nothing comparable on the home insurance side, said I4PC.


The lack of transparency comes despite Ontario home insurance rates climbing 84 per cent between 2014 and 2024, according to analysis by My Choice Financial Inc., while for Canada as a whole rates climbed 76 per cent in the decade. These gains were despite Statistics Canada data showing inflation of 28 per cent over the period.

“It’s really in FSRA’s mandate to investigate this, and they just aren’t,” said Taylor.

The regulator didn’t immediately provide a response, but it’s not an issue limited to Ontario. Regulators across the country should be looking into the trend, Taylor said, though I4PC chose to start with Ontario because it’s the largest housing market and many in the Toronto area were hit with flooding just last year.

The province does also have some of the most concentrated flood risks in the country, according to a 2022 report from the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation.

The report put the total flood risk per year in Canada at $3 billion, with one per cent of properties making up a third of the potential costs. Ontario has the highest share of those riskiest one per cent, just ahead of Quebec, the report said.

It highlighted how flood insurance is already too expensive for many Canadians, costing at times $10,000 to $15,000 to add flood protection, if it’s available at all. Meanwhile most consumers aren’t even aware they may need the added insurance, with 94 per cent of Canadians living in high-risk areas unaware that they are, said the report.

The lack of information on the risks means regulators should be pushing more to have flood risk maps made public, said Taylor. She also wants to see insurers investigated over what the group alleges is a conflict of interest between their investments in fossil fuel companies and their commitments on climate change.

The insurance industry itself has been sounding the alarm on the trends of rising costs and rates.

In January, the Insurance Bureau of Canada said there was $8.5 billion in insured damage caused by severe weather, the highest ever, and some 42 per cent higher than the previous record set in 2016. It warned that the rising frequency and severity of weather-related losses continues to create claims cost pressure that will, in turn, affect the cost of buying insurance.

It said that since 2019, Canada has seen a 115 per cent increase in the number of claims for personal property damage and a 485 per cent increase in the costs for repairing and replacing personal property.

“Canada is clearly becoming a riskier place to live, work and insure,” said Craig Stewart, vice-president of climate change and federal issues at IBC, in a statement at the time.


The industry has been pushing government to do more on flood and fire mitigation efforts and updating building codes, but it has also been advocating for a national flood insurance program to take on the riskiest homes.

Investors for Paris Compliance wants FSRA to look into the push for a flood insurance program, and whether it’s industry trying to off-load risk onto the public, among the other rate concerns.

Given all the issues at play, it’s high time regulators become more active on the file, said Taylor.

“This issue isn’t going to go away,” she said.

“Open-ended rate increases and reduced coverage isn’t a temporary thing, and whether the regulator looks at this now or later, it’s going to demand a response.’

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 3, 2025

THE MIDDLE CLASS 

Second-generation Canadians weigh the cost of carrying on the family business – and their parents’ legacy

PETITE BOURGEOIS

By The Canadian Press
July 04, 2025 

Salad King owner Alan Liu poses in front of a mural featuring his parents at his restaurant in Toronto on Thursday June 26, 2025.

 THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

In the corner of her family’s downtown Toronto restaurant, Jeanette Liu’s young son eats a plate of chili chicken as customers gather around tables and servers bustle across the floor.

Her son spending the summer at Yueh Tung is “full circle” for Liu, whose own childhood memories are flooded with the sound of clattering dishes and the smell of her parents’ cooking in that very space for decades.

She also remembers her parents’ gruelling 15-hour days as they proudly served customers who lined up out the door, chasing what she describes as their “Canadian dream” after they moved to Toronto from India in the early 1980s.

“My dad worked seven days a week. He only took one day off during Christmas Day, only for the morning, and then he would go right back into work by himself to prep for the next day,” Liu recalled.

Yueh Tung quickly became a place where members of their community could enjoy traditional Chinese cooking with Indian flavours, she said.

Liu and her sister Joanna decided to fully inherit the restaurant six months ago, not only so their parents could retire but so they wouldn’t have to face the fallout of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the rising cost of running a small business and changes in public dining habits. All of those factors have made it difficult to sustain their Canadian dream from decades ago, she said.

Amid the economic uncertainty, second-generation immigrant business owners like Liu say they’re grappling with how they can carry on their parents’ legacy – and what it could cost them.

“We didn’t want them to retire knowing that everything that they built and put all of their hard work into ended in this way,” Liu said.

“It’s really difficult. Rent has gone up, inventory has gone up, groceries have gone up and you can only increase your menu so much without having your customers get sticker shock.”

Alan Liu, who has no relation to Jeanette Liu, is the owner of Salad King, a Thai restaurant with two locations in Toronto’s downtown. His family moved to Canada from Hong Kong in 1990 in search of new opportunity, and his parents soon took ownership of the restaurant before passing it on to him in 2010.

Due to the impact of tariffs, Liu said his food costs over the past few months have gone up “much faster than we’ve ever seen.” He predicted his cost for chicken will likely go up by as much as 50 per cent by the end of summer.

“Looking at a second-generation business you kind of have to go, ‘OK, so this is what we’re good at. This is what we love doing and we’ve been doing this for 35 years. But the market is changing,’” he said.

“Is this a temporary change? Is this long-term change? And how are we going to survive beyond that?”

He prides himself on keeping the restaurant affordable for families and students but said in addition to tariff impacts, people’s eating habits have changed since the COVID-19 pandemic. More people are working from home and they are generally eating out less and reducing their spending, he said.

In the two decades his parents ran Salad King, he said they never experienced this level of economic precarity. They weathered recessions and even a partial building collapse the year he took over, he said, but nothing like this.

The whole thing has him feeling “punch drunk,” Liu said.

“It means you’ve been punched so many times in the head that you no longer feel anything. You’re basically perpetually stunned and perpetually in survival mode.”

Family-run restaurants aren’t the only ones feeling the pinch of the current economic climate.

Maria Cronk, who inherited a Kingston, Ont., boutique from her mother, said one of her suppliers has raised their prices because of tariffs and she expects to see others do so in the future.

“I think that our consumers are at their limits for what they want to pay,” Cronk said, speaking from the back storeroom of Fancy That. She also noted that some clothing lines have told her they don’t have production plans for next spring because they can’t afford it.

Cronk’s mother immigrated to Canada from Sweden in the early 1970s and opened the store. Cronk took over after her mother became ill, and now her own daughters have become involved.

Continuing a family business — and passing it on — means going through all sorts of ups and downs, said Cronk. But what makes it worth it, she said, is the hard work and love her family has poured into it.

“I’m so proud of what my mother started with and what I’ve been able to create on my own, even without her,” said Cronk. “It’s not about the money. It’s about building this community of people.”

Back at Yueh Tung, Jeanette Liu cashes out customers and wraps takeout orders, while her sister Joanna fires a wok in the kitchen and makes plates of noodles.

“I feel like my parents always just told me — and it’s very true of immigrant culture — you put your heads down and you work,” Liu said.

Just two months ago, the restaurant was on the brink of closure. They took to social media for “one last push,” and Yueh Tung has had more diners since, which she hopes will last.

Yueh Tung is not just a restaurant – it’s symbolic of their parents’ sacrifice and the community they found in Canada, Jeanette said.

“Carrying on the legacy was really the crux of everything having to do with us taking over the restaurant,” she said.

Yueh Tung has been the eighth member of their family, said Liu, who grew up with four siblings.

“My hope is that when I bring my dad back in, when my mom comes back in to dine as guests, they will be able to really sit and feel everything that they put into this restaurant and receive it back.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 4, 2025.

Rianna Lim, The Canadian Pres

World food prices tick higher in June, led by meat and vegetable oils

By Reuters
Published: July 04, 2025 

Meat counter in a Levis, Que., market, Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025. 

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot

PARIS - Global food commodity prices edged higher in June, supported by higher meat, vegetable oil and dairy prices, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 128.0 points in June, up 0.5% from May. The index stood 5.8% higher than a year ago, but remained 20.1% below its record high in March 2022.

The cereal price index fell 1.5% to 107.4 points, now 6.8% below a year ago, as global maize prices dropped sharply for a second month. Larger harvests and more export competition from Argentina and Brazil weighed on maize, while barley and sorghum also declined.

Wheat prices, however, rose due to weather concerns in Russia, the European Union, and the United States.

The vegetable oil price index rose 2.3% from May to 155.7 points, now 18.2% above its June 2024 level, led by higher palm, rapeseed, and soy oil prices.

Palm oil climbed nearly 5% from May on strong import demand, while soy oil was supported by expectations of higher demand from the biofuel sector following announcements of supportive policy measures in Brazil and the United States.

Sugar prices dropped 5.2% from May to 103.7 points, the lowest since April 2021, reflecting improved supply prospects in Brazil, India, and Thailand.

Meat prices rose to a record 126.0 points, now 6.7% above June 2024, with all categories rising except poultry. Bovine meat set a new peak, reflecting tighter supplies from Brazil and strong demand from the United States. Poultry prices continued to fall due to abundant Brazilian supplies.

The dairy price index edged up 0.5% from May to 154.4 points, marking a 20.7% annual increase.

In a separate report, the FAO forecast global cereal production in 2025 at a record 2.925 billion tonnes, 0.5% above its previous projection and 2.3% above the previous year.

The outlook could be affected by expected hot, dry conditions in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly for maize with plantings almost complete.

Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide. Editing by Mark Potter, Reuters

‘Buy local’ momentum leads to business growth in Nova Scotia

By Paul Hollingsworth

 July 03, 2025

The owner of O’Bees Farm Market in Dartmouth, N.S., calls his business a made-in-the-Maritimes success story.

“I started out in 2009, and I started very small, with one table at the city market on Saturdays,” said Ian O’Brien.

Sixteen years later, O’Brien’s once small business has now grown into a permanent store, crammed with locally produced food, as his new, expanded store opened on Wednesday. According to O’Brien, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs and many Canadians turned their backs on American-made products, his business was perfectly positioned to offer customers what they wanted to buy.

“Ninety-nine per cent of the products that I have in my store are either from Nova Scotia or the Maritimes,” said O’Brien. “It was easy to say, ‘buy local’ because we are local.”

Shoppers like Pam Hayhurst agree. When the trade war ramped up, her shopping habits changed, and she said she is not alone.

“I definitely think there has been an awakening for that,” said Hayhurst. “I know for myself, I like the idea of supporting local people, but knowing that everything that is going on with Trump, it is a way of helping the broader view.

“I know it’s fresh and I know I am helping out the local farmers and I feel better about contributing to my community.”

The growth in the “buy local” trend comes at a time when the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses has given Nova Scotia the highest score when it comes to removing internal trade barriers, which helps promote the sale of goods and services that are produced in Canada.

“I’m thrilled Nova Scotia is being recognized for making things better for businesses and workers,” said N.S. Premier Tim Houston in a news release. “I hope it continues to encourage other provinces and territories to join us and make free trade a reality, nationwide.”

Dartmouth business advocate Tim Rissesco believes the trend of supporting local businesses is just in its opening stages and he predicts more growth soon.

“People simply want to buy Canadian,” said Rissesco. “People want to know where their food is coming from, people are looking for the quality and it is a source of national pride.”

Which means business operators like Ian O’Brien can likely expect even more food sales and success, as the “buy local” trend continues to gain momentum across Canada.

Paul Hollingsworth
Journalist, CTV National News

CANADA

New supply management law won’t save the system from Trump, experts say

By The Canadian Press
July 03, 2025 

Cows are milked at a dairy farm in Granby, Que., on Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025. 

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

OTTAWA — A new law meant to protect supply management might not be enough to shield the system in trade talks with a Trump administration bent on eliminating it, trade experts say.

“It’s certainly more difficult to strike a deal with the United States now with the passage of this bill that basically forces Canada to negotiate with one hand tied behind its back,” said William Pellerin, a trade lawyer and partner at the firm McMillan LLP.

“Now that we’ve removed the digital service tax, dairy and supply management is probably the number 1 trade irritant that we have with the United States. That remains very much unresolved.”

When Trump briefly paused trade talks with Canada on June 27 over the digital services tax — shortly before Ottawa capitulated by dropping the tax — he zeroed in on Canada’s system of supply management.

In a social media post, Trump called Canada a “very difficult country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products.”


Canada can charge about 250 per cent tariffs on U.S. dairy imports over a set quota established by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. The International Dairy Foods Association, which represents the U.S. dairy industry, said in March the U.S. has never come close to reaching those quotas, though the association also said that’s because of other barriers Canada has erected.

When Bill C-202 passed through Parliament last month, Bloc Québécois MPs hailed it as a clear win protecting Quebec farmers from American trade demands.

The Bloc’s bill, which received royal assent on June 26, prevents the foreign affairs minister from making commitments in trade negotiations to either increase the tariff rate quota or reduce tariffs for imports over a set threshold.

On its face, that rule would prevent Canadian trade negotiators from offering to drop the import barriers that shield dairy and egg producers in Canada from price shocks. But while the law appears to rule out using supply management as a bargaining chip in trade talks with the U.S., it doesn’t completely constrain the government.

Pellerin said that if Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking a way around C-202, he might start by looking into conducting the trade talks personally, instead of leaving them to Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand.

Carney dismissed the need for the new law during the recent election but vowed to keep supply management off the table in negotiations with the U.S.

Pellerin said the government could also address the trade irritant by expanding the number of players who can access dairy quotas beyond “processors.”

“(C-202) doesn’t expressly talk about changing or modifying who would be able to access the quota,” he said. Expanding access to quota, he said, would likely “lead to companies like grocery stores being able to import U.S. cheeses, and that would probably please the United States to a significant degree.”

Carleton University associate professor Philippe Lagassé, an expert on Parliament and the Crown, said the new law doesn’t extend past something called the “royal prerogative” — the ability of the executive branch of government to carry out certain actions in, for example, the conduct of foreign affairs. That suggests the government isn’t constrained by the law, he said.

“I have doubts that the royal prerogative has been displaced by the law. There is no specific language binding the Crown and it would appear to run contrary to the wider intent of the (law that it modifies),” he said by email.

“That said, if the government believes that the law is binding, then it effectively is. As defenders of the bill insisted, it gives the government leverage in negotiation by giving the impression that Parliament has bound it on this issue.”


He said a trade treaty requires enabling legislation, so a new bill could remove the supply management constraints.

“The bill adds an extra step and some constraints, but doesn’t prevent supply management from eventually being removed or weakened,” he said.

Trade lawyer Mark Warner, principal at MAAW Law, said Canada could simply dispense with the law through Parliament if it decides it needs to make concessions to, for example, preserve the auto industry.

“The argument for me that the government of Canada sits down with another country, particularly the United States, and says we can’t negotiate that because Parliament has passed a bill — I have to tell you, I’ve never met an American trade official or lawyer who would take that seriously,” Warner said.

“My sense of this is it would just go through Parliament, unless you think other opposition parties would bring down the government over it.”

While supply management has long been a target for U.S. trade negotiators, the idea of killing it has been a non-starter in Canadian politics for at least as long.

Warner said any attempt to do away with it would be swiftly met with litigation, Charter challenges and provinces stepping up to fill a federal void.

“The real cost of that sort of thing is political, so if you try to take it away, people are screaming and they’re blocking the highways and they are calling you names and the Bloc is blocking anything through Parliament — you pay a cost that way,” he said.

But a compromise on supply management might not be that far-fetched.

“The system itself won’t be dismantled. I don’t think that’s anywhere near happening in the coming years and even decades,” said Pellerin. “But I think that there are changes that could be made, particularly through the trade agreements, including by way of kind of further quotas. Further reduction in the tariffs for outside quota amounts and also in terms of who can actually bring in product.”

The United States trade representative raised specific concerns about supply management in the spring, citing quota rules established under the CUSMA trade pact that are not being applied as the U.S. expected and ongoing frustration with the pricing of certain types of milk products.

Former Canadian diplomat Louise Blais said that if Canada were to “respect the spirit” of CUSMA as the Americans understand it, the problem might actually solve itself.

“We jump to the conclusion that it’s dismantlement or nothing else, but in fact there’s a middle ground,” she said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 3, 2025.

Kyle Duggan, The Canadian Press

‘Electricity is the new oil’: Expert anticipates oil prices to stay below US$70

By Joshua Santos
Published: July 03, 2025 

Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, a commodities expert says he expects oil prices to remain relatively steady, as the conflict isn’t likely to cause any major supply disruptions even if the current ceasefire is broken.

Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager of Tortoise Capital, said prices should be in the US$70 range but are down a little bit due to an oversupply of oil in the global market.

“In order for oil prices to return to what we think is the $70s, kind of normal price, you need the market to really rebalance,” Thummel told BNN Bloomberg Wednesday. “What that means is either oil production in other locations is going to fall, and, or effectively, demand for oil is probably going to rise more than what people expect in the second half of the year.”

Brent crude hovered around $68 per barrel on Thursday morning while West Texas Intermediate was changing hands at $67.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) are expected to meet this week to determine output levels for August. Member countries produced an estimated 28.7 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2022, which was 38 per cent of total world oil production that year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The largest producer and most influential member of OPEC is Saudi Arabia, which was the world’s second-largest oil producer in 2022, after the United States.


“OPEC+ has added back oil production throughout the year, and the anticipation is that OPEC+ will add back additional oil supply over the next several months,” said Thummel. “The oil market is currently oversupplied, and that ultimately means oil prices have come down and have been pushed down.”

OPEC+ remains ready and able to increase oil production if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, he noted.

“Iran exports one and a half million barrels a day of oil by one and a half per cent of global oil consumption. If there would have been disruptions in Iran’s exports, then Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries were prepared to step in and fill that supply gap that would potentially have materialized should Iran exports be less and Saudi Arabia is still ready and willing to be able to do that,” said Thummel. “We’ll see how the second half unfolds. We don’t expect any disruptions in the Middle East because of the conflict, and so as a result of that, we continue to expect the oil market to be oversupplied in 2025 and we will then expect to see oil prices right around the $65 range where they are currently, for the rest of the year.”

Oil market watchers have been fixated on Iran after it suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, following U.S. airstrikes to dismantle nuclear facilities in the country.

According to the Associated Press, the suspension will likely limit the ability of inspectors to track the nuclear program that had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels

‘Electricity is the new oil’

Recent oil market volatility comes as the demand backdrop for crude is undergoing major changes, Thummel said.

“Electricity is the new oil, and so from our perspective, natural gas and nuclear are the future for the energy supply. Oil still plays a role, but it plays a lesser role. So natural gas and nuclear are ways to play it,” he said.

“There’s plenty of really quite high-quality natural gas stocks in the U.S. and Canada as well and then natural gas will really be the big supply source, energy supply source in the near term. In the medium term, nuclear will start picking up in terms of its market share, probably in 2030 and beyond. So that’s the way we look at it.”

With files from Reuters

Joshua Santos
Journalist, BNNBloomberg.ca

 

Planned hydrogen refuelling stations may lead to millions of euros in yearly losses

Geospatial distribution of hydrogen demand and refueling infrastructure for long-haul trucks in Europe

Chalmers University of Technology

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Figure 1 shows where refuelling stations should be located in 2050, according to the Chalmers study. The different colours represent the size of the station, orange being the smallest and red being the largest.

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Credit: Chalmers

As hydrogen infrastructure is rolled out in the EU, refuelling stations must be distributed according to the same principle in all countries. But now a study from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden points to shortcomings in EU regulations. Using an advanced model, the researchers show that the distribution of refuelling stations may both be incorrectly dimensioned and lead to losses of tens of millions of euros a year in some countries.

By 2030, EU countries must have built hydrogen refuelling stations at least every 200 kilometres on major roads and one in every urban node. The aim is to facilitate the introduction of hydrogen-powered transport. This is governed by the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), which entered into force in 2023.

However, a study from Chalmers, based on data from 600,000 freight routes across Europe, shows that in many cases the requirements do not reflect actual demand. By modelling how hydrogen-powered long-haul trucks might operate in 2050, the researchers show not only where demand for hydrogen infrastructure will be highest, but also how current EU rules risk leading to large losses in some countries.

“EU law is based on distance, but traffic volumes differ in other ways between countries. According to our model, capacity in France needs to be seven times higher in 2050 than what the EU requires by 2030. Consequently, the rollout under AFIR works as a first step on the way, but will need to be supplemented,” says Joel Löfving, doctoral student at the Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences at Chalmers.

However, countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Greece do not have the same traffic flows and they are being forced to build infrastructure that is unlikely to be used to the same extent. This may amount to tens of millions of euros a year in investment and operating costs for unused capacity.

Accurate simulation reflects demand
In addition to taking into account traffic volumes and distances, the Chalmers study includes topographical data from the European Space Agency. One important insight is that geographical terrain plays a greater role in energy demand than was previously assumed.

“Many models use an average energy demand per kilometre for trucks. But the demand profile changes markedly when parameters such as gradient and speed are included. This gives you a more accurate basis for where the infrastructure may actually be needed,” says Joel Löfving.

The study focused on long-haul traffic, i.e. distances of more than 360 kilometres, as shorter distances are likely to be covered by battery-powered goods vehicles in the future.

“We considered the direction of technology development for trucks. Much of the current research shows that batteries will be able to cover the shorter distances, while alternatives such as hydrogen may be needed as a supplement for long distances,” says Joel Löfving.

Political interest in demand-based rollout
The researchers’ model looks further than the 2030 requirements and analyses how investments in hydrogen infrastructure can be sustainable in the long term. The study has already been used to inform political discussions in both Sweden and the EU on how to plan the rollout of hydrogen infrastructure.

“At EU level, we have been able to provide feedback for the evaluation of AFIR that will take place in 2026, and my hope is to influence the development of the law in a way that takes into account each country’s specific circumstances. For Sweden, AFIR is a good start, but investing in expensive new technology is always risky. Because the study has a longer time frame, we have been able to contribute to the discussion on how to build an economically sustainable refuelling station network that will eventually make it easier to create a market for heavy hydrogen vehicles,” says Löfving.

Figure 2 shows how much more hydrogen refuelling station capacity will be needed in 2050 compared to the EU requirement in 2030, according to the study. The darkest countries need less capacity in 2050 than AFIR requires in 2030, and the light countries need more capacity.

Credit

Chalmers

More about the research:
The study Geospatial distribution of hydrogen demand and refueling infrastructure for long-haul trucks in Europe has been published in the International journal of hydrogen energy. The authors are Joel Löfving, Selma Brynolf and Maria Grahn, all of whom work at Chalmers.

The study was carried out within the framework of TechForH2, a Chalmers-led centre of excellence for multidisciplinary hydrogen research with the overall aim of developing new hydrogen propulsion technologies for heavy vehicles. It is also part of a larger research project that aims to analyse the systemic effects of a transition to hydrogen in the transport sector.

Facts about AFIR:
The Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) is part of the EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ climate package, a legislative package that aims to reduce the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. This will contribute to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
AFIR entered into force in 2023 and its aim is to develop alternative fuels infrastructure, including electricity and hydrogen, along the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T).
Under AFIR, from 2030, EU Member States will have to build hydrogen refuelling stations at least every 200 kilometres along the TEN-T network and in all urban nodes.

 

For more information, please contact:

Joel Löfving, doctoral student, Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden: +46 31 772 16 47, joel.lofving@chalmers.se

Maria Grahn, Associate Professor, Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, +46 31 772 31 04, maria.grahn@chalmers.se

 

Figures:
Figure 1 shows where refuelling stations should be located in 2050, according to the Chalmers study. The different colours represent the size of the station, orange being the smallest and red being the largest.

Figure 2 shows how much more hydrogen refuelling station capacity will be needed in 2050 compared to the EU requirement in 2030, according to the study. The darkest countries need less capacity in 2050 than AFIR requires in 2030, and the light countries need more capacity.

 

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Journal

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

DOI

10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.04.257 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Geospatial distribution of hydrogen demand and refueling infrastructure for long-haul trucks in Europe