Saturday, August 02, 2025

Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman warns US faces Venezuela-style collapse under Trump


Matthew Chapman
August 1, 2025 
RAW STORY


NY Times columnist Paul Krugman. (Shutterstock)

Nobel Prize-winning economist turned political commentator Paul Krugman tore into President Donald Trump on MSNBC for firing the nation's chief labor statistics analyst for reporting weak jobs numbers — and told anchor Ari Melber this is the same blueprint that ends up driving authoritarian countries into economic collapse.

This comes at the same time Trump is ramping up threats and attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, an official he originally appointed, for not lowering interest rates because the administration's tariffs are undoing progress on inflation, sparking additional fears the president could derail independent monetary policy.

"We're not yet in recession territory, but we're definitely losing steam," Krugman, a frequent critic of Trump, said in response to the numbers. "And this is a not good picture. This is not what you want to see happening."

"[And] Trump sort of crashes out, shoots the messenger," replied Melber. "We don't have any modern precedent for that. It's reminiscent of bigger problems in controlled or autocratic countries and economies. Put that in context for us. And why would that affect — why would that be bad for, say, an average person in the economy?"

"Well, the thing to remember is that this agency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not a household phrase, but it is absolutely critical," said Krugman. "Basically, everything that we know about what's happening to the economy in the last couple of months comes from the BLS. They do the surveys that tell us how many people are unemployed. They do the surveys that tell us how many jobs companies are creating. They produce the inflation numbers. So all of that comes from them. And it's — first of all, it's critical for, you know, for all of us to understand what's happening, but also how the government itself makes decisions. It's how the Federal Reserve makes decisions."

"If you start to corrupt those numbers, if you start to report those numbers as being what makes the president look good instead of what's actually happening, then bad things start happening," Krugman continued. "How does someplace like Venezuela get to hyperinflation? ... someplace like Argentina get hyperinflation? And an important part of that is that they start ordering the statistical agencies to, you know, report nothing but puppies and rainbows. And so they go plunging ahead. And by the time they finally start, if they ever do, to admit that maybe, maybe we have a problem here, you're up at 80 percent inflation, right?"

"This is the playbook," he added. "We've seen it many, many times. And now I have to say, faster even than I expected, it's come to America."

Watch the video below or at the link here.



'Who are you gonna trust?' Economist warns Trump is poisoning America’s fiscal reputation

Sarah K. Burris
August 1, 2025 
RAW STORY




An economics expert warned that any forthcoming jobs numbers will leave many questioning their accuracy.

President Donald Trump raged after the Bureau of Labor Statistics published less-than-glowing jobs numbers for July and recalculated the May and June numbers to show meager reports. In response, Trump said he would fire the chair of the BLS and install someone "competent."

Speaking to MSNBC on Friday, Gene Sperling, former director of the National Economic Council, said that no one should underestimate how damaging this can be to assault economic institutions like the BLS.

"I know all this stuff may seem complicated to people, but it's really not. You've got four or five people you could lend money, or invest, to," proposed Sperling. "Four of them often lie, often fudge the numbers, often abuse the law. And one is always honest, independent with monetary policy, independent with the numbers they put out. Who are you going to trust? Who are you going to charge less to lend money?"

He called it the benefit of being a stable economic country.

"And it's not just in the dollar being the reserve currency, not just in our treasuries being the safe haven of investment, but in people believing that the U.S. was a place to make their future and invest," said Sperling.

This is piling on more and more "abuse and attack on the rule of law and economic integrity," he warned. It also comes as Trump extorts law firms, colleges and universities, he added.

Risk Reversal Advisors Principal Dan Nathan told substitute host Stephanie Ruhle that this was the "first time that investors truly began paying attention to some of the funny business that's been going on."

He explained that the job reports are part of a weakness caused by Trump's economic policy.


"If you think about the uncertainty in and around this trade war," he mentioned. "And make no mistake about it, if you start to put these sorts of levies right on some of these countries that you really expected to have deals by now. That sort of uncertainty is going to cause the C-level suite in America to start laying folks off to be a lot more cautious about how they are spending money."

See the comments below or at the link here.




Economists Pan 'Insane' New Trump Tariffs as US Consumers Struggle With Rising Prices

"Trump's definition of 'winning' is hitting the American people with ever-higher taxes," said economist Dean Baker.



Container ships are docked at the APM Terminal at the Port of Los Angeles, California, on July 31, 2025.
(Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)


Jake Johnson
Aug 01, 2025
COMMON DREAMS

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday used emergency authority to impose high tariff rates on imports from dozens of American trading partners, including Canada—a move that economists criticized as a senseless approach to global trade that will further increase costs for consumers who are already struggling to get by.

Trump outlined the new tariff rates in executive orders signed just ahead of his arbitrary August 1 deadline for U.S. trading partners to negotiate a deal with the White House, whose erratic, aggressive, and legally dubious approach has alarmed world leaders.

Under the president's new orders, Canadian goods that are not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will face 35% import duties, while steel and aluminum imports will face a 50% tariff rate.

Trump claimed Canada "has failed to cooperate in curbing the ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs." But Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hit back in a statement early Friday, noting that Canada "accounts for only 1% of U.S. fentanyl imports and has been working intensively to further reduce these volumes."

"While we will continue to negotiate with the United States on our trading relationship, the Canadian government is laser-focused on what we can control: building Canada strong," Carney added. "Canadians will be our own best customer, creating more well-paying careers at home, as we strengthen and diversify our trading partnerships throughout the world."

Economist Brad Setser said that while the impact of the higher tariff on Canadian imports could be muted because of the exemption of USMCA-covered products such as oil, the 35% rate is still "insane" and "dumb."

"Same with the high tariff on Switzerland. Crazy," Setser wrote, pointing to the 39% rate for Switzerland imports. "This isn't just protectionism, it is bad protectionism—and will have all sorts of unintended consequences."

The new tariff rates for Canadian goods will take effect Friday while the higher rates for other nations such as Brazil (50%), India (25%), and Vietnam (20%) won't kick in until next week "to give Customs and Border Protection officials time to prepare," The Washington Post reported. Customs and Border Protection collects tariffs, which are effectively taxes paid by importers—who often pass those costs onto consumers in the form of higher prices.

"Trump's definition of 'winning' is hitting the American people with ever-higher taxes," Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote late Thursday.

Recent U.S. economic data indicates that Trump's tariffs are already putting upward pressure on prices—and companies are using the president's trade chaos as an excuse to drive up prices further and pad their bottom lines.

The Tax Foundation noted earlier this week that "a variety of food imports" will be impacted by Trump's tariffs, likely leading to "higher food prices for consumers." More than 80% of Americans are already concerned about the price of groceries and many are struggling to stay afloat, according to survey data released Thursday by The Century Foundation.

Baker warned Thursday that even nations that have agreed to trade frameworks with the U.S. are not out of the woods.

"Deals are meaningless to Trump. He'll break them in a second any time he feels like it," Baker wrote. "I trust everyone negotiating with Trump understands that fact."

Report Shows 'Financial Insecurity Is Widespread and Runs Deep' in Trump Economy

"Trump's two flagship economic initiatives—his tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill—are not perceived as helping the economy," said an analyst for the pollster YouGov.


People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.
(Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images)


Brad Reed
Jul 31, 2025
COMMON DREAMS

U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to immediately bring down inflation upon taking office, but a Thursday report from the Century Foundation finds that Americans' finances are still in a very precarious condition.

The Century Foundation commissioned a survey last month with polling firm Morning Consult and found that roughly 6 in 10 Americans say that Trump's policies are to blame for their current financial struggles. However, the report also emphasized that Americans' "financial insecurity is widespread and runs deep," and that their concerns stretch back well before Trump's second term.

"More than 4 in 5 Americans (83%) are concerned about the price of groceries, with nearly half (46%) saying they are very concerned," writes the Century Foundation. "Nearly half (47%) of Americans are worried about their current ability to pay their rent or mortgage. And nearly two-thirds (64%) worry about their ability to pay an unexpected medical expense if one should arise. Nearly half of all Americans (48%) believe they would have difficulty paying an unexpected $500 bill without borrowing."

These anxieties were particularly strong among younger Generation Z voters, as well as among Black and Latino voters across all age demographics.

Even more troubling, the survey found that Americans are increasingly using financially risky strategies to keep up with paying their bills.

"More than a third of Americans are turning to high-cost debt to cover their bills," writes the Century Foundation. "Significant shares have also had to turn to credit cards (37%) or take on debt (29%) to afford the bills. This is consistent with the larger trends in use of credit products, like the notable shift in use of 'buy now, pay later' products for groceries. The rates of families using credit card debt to cover expenses is all the more concerning as credit card delinquencies continue to rise."

Roughly 2 in 5 Americans reported dipping into their personal savings at least once in the last year in order to pay their bills, while 1 in 4 Americans reported skipping out on meals to make ends meet, the survey found.

When it comes to what Americans see as the major obstacle to having a lower cost of living, the survey found that they considered unchecked corporate power to be the main culprit.

"Across party lines, Americans believe that tamping down corporate power will help them," writes the Century Foundation. "According to most Americans, actions that hold the wealthy and powerful accountable would help them and people like them. That includes reducing the influence of money in politics (60%), prosecuting companies that cheat workers and consumers (60%), and raising taxes on the rich (57%)."

The Century Foundation's poll isn't the only one to release this week to show Americans are highly anxious about the economy. A poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of U.K.-based newspaper The Times found that 50% of Americans believed the economy was getting worse under Trump's watch while just 24% said it was improving.

This poll similarly found that Americans are concerned about the cost of living and the impacts that Trump's tariffs will have on their ability to afford basic necessities such as groceries.

"The honeymoon at the beginning has gone: Inflation and jobs are still the leading issues and there is not a perception of anything improving," explained YouGov analyst Mark Blumenthal. "The survey suggests that Trump's two flagship economic initiatives—his tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill—are not perceived as helping the economy."



Campaign's Interactive Tool Tracks How Much Trump and GOP Are Raising the Cost of Living


"Trump and Republicans in Congress are single-handedly inflating the cost of everyday items that Americans rely on," said one advocate.


People shop at a supermarket on July 18, 2025 in Rockville, Maryland.
(Photo: Sha Hanting/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)

Julia Conley
Jul 31, 2025
COMMON DREAMS

Six months into U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, an economic justice group on Thursday unveiled an interactive tool to help Americans put a number on the unmistakable feeling many have reported having about the Republican leader who promised to "make America affordable again": that costs have in fact gone up under Trump, and that the White House and the GOP are to blame.

Using the tool introduced by Unrig Our Economy, people across the U.S. can see exactly how much the price of essentials has gone up in their state, with the advocacy group connecting the dots between the rising cost of living and Trump's tariffs as well as corporate tax breaks Republicans have relentlessly pushed to pass.

According to the "Don't Inflate Our Plates" tool, the price of beef in Texas has gone up nearly 47% since the early days of Trump's second term, while eggs cost $3.19 more than they did before Trump took office.

In California, eggs now cost over $5.00 more than they did before Trump's second term, based on "historical trends, real-time supplier data, and market analysis" that Unrig Our Economy examined.




Unrig Our Economy gained some of its data from Kroger's pricing data, finding that in states with Kroger stores, the price of beef has gone up between 16% and 72%, with the biggest price hikes in Alaska and Utah.

Egg prices in particular were a talking point for Trump during his presidential campaign, but they've risen in many states where Kroger operates, with customers in Michigan—where the president won in 2024—paying 58% more for eggs.

"Trump and Republicans in Congress are singlehandedly inflating the cost of everyday items that Americans rely on," said Leor Tal, campaign director for Unrig Our Economy. "While billionaires and corporations cash in on Republican-backed tax breaks, working-class families are left paying higher prices for eggs, coffee, and more."

Unrig Our Economy pointed to reporting on Trump's tariffs, more of which are set to be announced Friday, with the president expected to impose rates up to 50% on some imports.

As Common Dreams reported this week, the advocacy group Groundwork Collaborative found that just as corporate executives used labor shortages and supply chain disruptions during the coronavirus pandemic as cover to keep prices high even after those problems were resolved, many are now using tariffs as a justification for price increases.

"We certainly welcome a reduction in the Chinese tariffs, but we'll be announcing a price increase here regardless of any changes of the Chinese tariffs over the next week or two to go into effect in June," the CEO of one footwear brand said in a recent earnings call.


Unrig Our Economy pointed to recent polling that showed Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump's tariffs, including 47% of Republican voters.

The Trump administration has also made a number of regulatory moves benefiting corporations that aim to take as much money from working families' household budgets as possible, including a push for the cancellation of a Biden-era Federal Trade Commission rule allowing consumers to easily cancel subscriptions; the FTC's decision to drop a lawsuit challenging price discrimination by PepsiCo; and the commission's move shutting down public comments on corporate pricing tactics.

The interactive tool was unveiled weeks after the president signed into law his sweeping domestic policy and budget package, which includes the largest cuts to public programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in history, increases monthly payments for student loan borrowers under repayment assistance plans, and hands out $117 billion in tax cuts to the richest 1% of Americans while providing just $77 billion in cumulative savings to the bottom 60% of earners.

As Unrig Our Economy unveiled its tool allowing Americans to see exactly how their household budgets are being impacted under the Trump administration, the Century Foundation (TCF) and Morning Consult released the results of a poll in which they asked more than 2,000 people in June how they were being affected by the high cost of living over the past six months.

More than half of respondents said "billionaires, corporations, and congressional Republicans have made their lives harder," and 60% said the Trump administration is to blame for the higher cost of living.

More than 4 in 5 Americans said they were concerned about the price of groceries, and nearly half were concerned about their ability to pay their rent or mortgage. Forty-eight percent said they would have difficulty paying an unexpected $500 bill, like a home repair or medical bill, without borrowing or using credit, and nearly 20% said it would be "very difficult" to make the payment.

Even among households with incomes over $100,000, more than a third said they would have a hard time meeting the surprise expense without dipping into savings or using credit cards—suggesting that these households are using a large proportion of their relatively comfortable monthly income for essentials

"While the federal government tears down programs such as Medicaid and food assistance and federal regulators give the green light to companies to rip off consumers, families are being forced to construct their own safety nets from a web of risky financial practices," said TCF.

Unrig the Economy said that with Don't Inflate Our Plates, the group is calling out "the Republican-backed policies that got us here" and demanding "that Congress put working people first."

Ford Warns of Profit Plunge Thanks to Trump Tariffs

Ford's tariff troubles are notable because it "manufactures the most cars in the U.S. of any automaker," and yet is still "being squeezed by new trade barriers imposed by the White House," reported Bloomberg.


U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on reciprocal tariffs during an event in the Rose Garden entitled "Make America Wealthy Again" at the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2025.
(Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

Brad Reed
Jul 30, 2025
COMMON DREAMS

American automaker Ford on Wednesday followed in the steps of General Motors in warning that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are going to take a hammer to its bottom line.

As reported by Bloomberg, Ford said that its profit could plunge by up to 36% this year as it expects to take a $2 billion hit from the president's tariffs on key inputs such as steel and aluminum, as well as taxes on car components manufactured in Canada and Mexico. News of Ford's guidance sent its stock shares diving by more than 2% in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

Bloomberg wrote that Ford's tariff troubles are notable because it "manufactures the most cars in the U.S. of any automaker," and yet is still "being squeezed by new trade barriers imposed by the White House."

Ford CFO Sherry House informed reporters during the company's quarterly earnings call that the White House was aware of the troubles the tariffs are causing U.S. automakers and she said that it "is working with us to get this right."

General Motors earlier this month also cited the Trump tariffs as a major reason why its profits fell by $3 billion the previous quarter. Making matters worse, GM said that the impact of the tariffs would be even more significant in the coming quarter when its profits could tumble by as much as $5 billion.

GM's warning came shortly after Jeep manufacturer Stellantis projected that the Trump tariffs would directly lead to $350 million in losses in the first half of 2025.

Trump made raising tariffs on foreign products a key plank of his 2024 election campaign despite the fact that he also ran on lowering inflation, and tariffs historically have led to higher, rather than lower, prices.

Trump and His GOP Risk Making Depressions Great Again

Today, every one of the fuse lines that set off past explosions is once again being laid by a Republican president and party that have abandoned any pretense of economic stewardship or patriotism.


Workers pack boxes for the Commodity Supplemental Food Program at The Orange County Food Bank in Garden Grove, California on Friday, May 9, 2025.
(Photo: Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)

Thom Hartmann
Aug 01, 2025
Common Dreams

Republicans may be fixing to crash the economy again—Republican presidents oversaw 10 of the last 11 recessions and the Republican Great Depression—and they’re doing it to satisfy the greed of the billionaires they serve.

Today, for example, is the day that some of U.S. President Donald Trump‘s worst tariffs are supposed to go into effect, and many folks on Wall Street are deciding where they want to hide when the ceiling starts falling in. The horrible jobs report just released hours ago highlights not only how bad things were in July, but they had to “revise downward by 285,000 jobs” previous reports; it looks like Trump’s people have been cooking the books.

The Financial Times is on it; they published an article this week titled, “The US Economy Is More Fragile Than It Appears.” It’s author, Tej Parikh, points out that our housing market is in trouble and starting to look like it did around the time of the Bush Housing Crash in 2008, that spending patterns are changing in alarming ways (my phrase, not his), and that both the labor and stock markets are vulnerable. The article is frankly alarming.

And former labor secretary Robert Reich titled his brilliant newsletter yesterday: “Be Warned: The Financial Bubble Will Soon Burst.” The former Clinton cabinet member writes:
The financial economy—stocks, bonds, and their derivatives—is in for a big reality check, and I think it will happen soon.

America has stared into this abyss before; three times, in fact. In the 1770s, a brutal financial crisis driven by colonial overextension, monopolistic control by the British East India Company, and political corruption helped spark the American Revolution. In the 1850s, it was wildcat banking, land speculation, and a collapse in trust that helped produce the Panic of 1857 and push the nation toward civil war. And in 1929, Republican deregulation, tax cuts for the rich, financial speculation, and an all-out assault on labor exploded into the Republican Great Depression.

Today, every one of the fuse lines that set off those explosions is once again being laid by a Republican president and party that have abandoned any pretense of economic stewardship or patriotism.

They are actively destabilizing the pillars of our economy, undermining our democracy, and gutting the social contract that held us together for nearly a century. And unless we act—forcefully, quickly, and collectively—we may soon experience a collapse that makes 2008 look like a speed bump.

The risk of a modern economic depression is not academic or merely theoretical. It’s also not fearmongering. It is real, it is avoidable, and it is being amplified by a political movement that openly disdains regulation, despises democracy, and seeks to roll back every gain the American middle class has made since FDR dragged this country out of the last Republican-created catastrophe.

We are now living under a Republican president whose party has:Repeatedly held the full faith and credit of the United States hostage in debt ceiling standoffs designed to force cruel cuts to programs that serve ordinary people;
Demanded the Fed lower interest rates in a way that could push the nation into an inflationary spiral even as wages stagnate and housing becomes unaffordable for the bottom 90%;
Pushed for the end of regulations on banks, fossil fuel companies, tech monopolies, and Wall Street speculators, even as their recklessness increases systemic risk;
Championed massive tax cuts for billionaires and multinational corporations, ballooning the deficit while cutting benefits and raising taxes on working people;
Enabled trade wars and supply chain disruptions while cutting support for green manufacturing and public investment;
Promoted and made billions from crypto; and
Perhaps most grotesquely, embraced open authoritarianism and white nationalism, eroding the rule of law and the very stability on which economic confidence depends.

Every one of these moves destabilizes the foundation of modern prosperity. And every one of them echoes the warning signs of past collapses. The mechanisms of economic catastrophe are not mysterious. We’ve seen them before.

Start with sovereign debt and fiscal dysfunction.

In 2023 and 2024, House Republicans repeatedly brought us to the brink of default just to slash food aid, gut Medicaid, and kill green jobs. Now, in 2025, they’re salivating over a new “Balanced Budget Amendment” that would make countercyclical investment during recessions illegal. That’s economic suicide.

When demand collapses, the government must spend to stabilize the system. That’s Econ 101. But the GOP wants a permanent austerity straitjacket. Why? Because billionaires don’t suffer in recessions: They buy everything at a discount and radically increase their own wealth when things rebound. For the morbidly rich, Republican recessions and depressions are “buying opportunities”: It’s class war, plain and simple.

Then there’s financial speculation and asset bubbles.We’re once again living in an era of rampant unregulated financial engineering:
Crypto Ponzi schemes.
AI stock frenzies.
Private equity gutting essential companies and loading them with debt.
Trillions of dollars sloshing around the system chasing yield, while regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Trade Commission are neutered by courts stacked with right-wing ideologues.

Remember what happened in 1929? The same “let the market police itself” ideology brought the whole thing crashing down. The difference now is that the contagion would be global and could even be instantaneous.

Trade shocks and de-dollarization are looming risks, too.

Trump’s tariffs hurt American farmers and manufacturers. His talk of a new 10% universal tariff could ignite a global trade war and could push countries like China, Brazil, or Saudi Arabia to finally abandon the dollar as the reserve currency.

If that happens—if Treasury bonds stop being the world’s safe haven—we’re looking at a collapse in our ability to finance debt, a surge in interest rates, a crash in the housing market, and mass layoffs. And the Republicans? They cheer it on. They think chaos is good politics.

And then there are tariffs.

There’s a reason the Founders of this country and Framers of the Constitution gave the power to enact tariffs exclusively to Congress. They knew that nobody would build a factory here unless they knew that a tariff defending their manufacturing would be in place for the decades it would take to recover their investment costs.

When tariffs are simply slapped here and there willy-nilly by a single man and can be easily repealed by the next president, no competent business manager would take them seriously: The only thing tariffs do, under these circumstances, is damage the economy. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs so far are going to cost the average American family $2,400 this year.

And, from Donald Trump’s point of view, they force foreign leaders to come grovel in front of him, which absolutely delights him. He brags about it, once noting that, “They are kissing my ass.” This is not trade policy; he’s just doing this for his ego.

And what about public confidence and how the loss of it could cause a depression?

You can’t have a functioning economy without trust in government, in institutions, in money itself. But the GOP has made destroying trust its central project.

They lie about elections. They undermine the courts. They spread conspiracy theories. They smear career civil servants. They openly praise authoritarianism.

When half the population no longer believes in the legitimacy of its own government, and when the other half sees that government captured by billionaires and zealots, economic confidence evaporates.

People stop spending. They stop investing. They retreat into cash and hoarding. That’s how depressions spiral out of control.

Now layer on climate instability and its ability to wreck an economy and you have a real mess.

The GOP’s climate denialism is not just immoral, it’s economically suicidal. Hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and heatwaves are destroying billions in assets every year.

Insurance markets are collapsing in California, Florida, and Louisiana. Agricultural yields are falling. Water shortages are hitting the Southwest. Floods are wiping out the Midwest and the South while wildfires torch the West. But Republicans keep slashing climate research, killing green energy subsidies, and banning environmental and social governance investment strategies. They are literally outlawing the future.

It’s a five-alarm fire, and the Republican arsonists are demanding more gasoline.

There is, however, a way out. We’ve done it before.

They’ve created the conditions for collapse, and they’ll blame immigrants, Democrats, or queer kids when it happens.

After the last Republican-created depression, then-President Franklin D. Roosevelt rejected the dogma of austerity and implemented the most ambitious suite of Keynesian policies in world history. He put people to work. He regulated the banks. He taxed the rich. He unionized the workforce. He broke up monopolies. He guaranteed Social Security, unemployment insurance, and the right to organize.

That system—Keynesian demand-side economics—created the greatest middle class the world has ever seen. It lifted millions out of poverty, stabilized capitalism, and gave rise to the postwar economic boom. It literally created the modern American middle class.

But starting in 1981, Reagan and the GOP declared war on that system. They gutted antitrust enforcement. They slashed top tax rates. They crushed unions. They deregulated finance. They privatized public goods. They shifted the burden of funding government from the rich to the working class. And then they blamed the victims of their policies for the resulting inequality and instability.

Now they’re going for the kill shot.

Trump and his Republican Party are not just misguided; they are dangerous. Their policies are not just bad; they are existential threats to economic stability. They’ve created the conditions for collapse, and they’ll blame immigrants, Democrats, or queer kids when it happens.

We can’t let them. We have to take our country back, economically, politically, morally.

That means rejecting trickle-down nonsense and restoring Keynesian demand-side policies. It means breaking up monopolies and rebuilding a regulatory state that works. It means bringing back progressive taxation and closing loopholes for billionaires. It means massive investment in clean energy, public health, education, and infrastructure. It means rebuilding trust in democracy by reversing Citizens United, defending voting rights, rooting out corruption, and calling out fascism where we see it.

This must be at the core of the platform Democrats run on this fall and during next year’s midterms.

The risk of a depression is real. But the solution is in our hands. We just have to stop letting the Republican Party light the matches.


Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.


Thom Hartmann
Thom Hartmann is a talk-show host and the author o
f "The Hidden History of Monopolies: How Big Business Destroyed the American Dream" (2020); "The Hidden History of the Supreme Court and the Betrayal of America" (2019); and more than 25 other books in print.


Trump’s ‘logic is flawed’ – economics professor

This firing is Trump's most Orwellian move yet

Robert Reich
August 2, 2025 
RAW STORY


Donald Trump speaks at the White House. REUTERS/Kent Nishimura

I spent much of the 1990s as Secretary of Labor. One unit of the Labor Department is the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

I was instructed by my predecessors as well as by the White House, and by every labor economist and statistician I came in contact with, that one of my cardinal responsibilities was to guard the independence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Otherwise, this crown jewel of knowledge about jobs and the economy would be compromised. If politicized, it would no longer be trusted as a source of information.

So what does Trump do? With one fell swoop on Friday he destroyed the BLS.

Trump didn’t like the fact that the BLS revised downward its jobs reports for April and May.

Revisions in monthly jobs report are nothing new. They’re made when the Bureau gets more or better information over time.

Yet with no basis in fact, Trump charged that Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, “rigged” the data “to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.”

Then he ordered her fired and replaced with someone else — presumably someone whose data Trump will approve of.

How can anyone in the future trust the data that emerges from the Bureau of Labor Statistics when the person in charge of the agency has to come up with data to Trump’s liking in order to stay in the job?

Answer: They cannot. Trump has destroyed the credibility of this extraordinarily important source of information.

When Trump doesn’t like the message he shoots the messenger, and replaces the messenger with someone who will come up with messages he approves of.

So we’re left without credible sources of information about what is really occurring.

Trump is in the process of trying to do the same thing with the Federal Reserve — demanding that Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, cut interest rates. Trump is even threatening Powell with a Trumped-up expose of Powell’s supposed extravagance in refurbishing the Fed as a means of forcing Powell to do his bidding or resign.

What happens to the Fed’s credibility if Powell give in to Trump? It loses it. In the future, we wouldn’t have confidence that the Fed is fighting inflation, as it should. And without that confidence, longer-term interest rates will spike because investors will assume that there’s no inflation cop on the beat, and therefore will demand a higher risk premium.

Trump hates facts that he disagrees with. That’s why he’s dismembering the Environmental Protection Agency, which has repeatedly shown that climate change isn’t a “hoax,” as Trump claims, but more like a national emergency.

It’s why Trump is attacking American universities, whose whose scientists are developing wind and solar energy, and whose historians have revealed America’s tragic history of racism and genocide of indigenous people.

He is killing off the Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health, which are showing the sources of sickness and disease and how we can guard against them.

This is a man and a regime that doesn’t want the public to know the truth. He is turning America into George Orwell’s dystopian 1984.

This is what fascism looks like, friends.



We must fight this with everything we have.Robert Reich is a professor emeritus of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com























Trump's Attack on BLS is Outrageous and Irresponsible, Union Leader Says

President has called to fire head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics over publication of employment data.


WASHINGTON - American Federation of Government Employees National President Everett Kelley today issued the following statement:

“President Trump’s attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and his call to fire the long-time federal worker who leads the agency over today’s publication of employment data is outrageous and irresponsible.

“The civil servants at BLS are not political actors. They are professionals committed to producing accurate, independent data, regardless of who is in power. BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, who Trump now wants to fire, has worked in the federal government for more than two decades under multiple administrations.

“Presidents don’t get to blame career workers when their policies don’t deliver. That’s why America’s civil servants collect and report this data — to give the American people the truth, not to make sure the president looks good.

“AFGE stands with BLS workers and all federal employees who serve the American people with integrity.”

AFL-CIO Chief Economist on July Jobs Numbers

WASHINGTON - AFL-CIO Chief Economist Dr. Darrick Hamilton issued the following statement on the July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Average job growth over the past three months has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade. Core sectors of the economy—manufacturing, government, retail and mining—are hemorrhaging jobs. Without modest gains in the health care and social assistance sectors, we’d be facing three straight months of net job loss. And yet, in the midst of this instability, the administration has pushed through what will likely be the largest health care cut in American history. And this data doesn’t yet capture the ripple effects of mass federal layoffs or the full force of recent budget cuts.

Over the past two months, the Black unemployment rate has jumped by a full percentage point and now stands at more than 7%, nearly double the national rate of 4.2%. For Black workers, the picture is not only a reflection of persistent racial bias—it may also be a harbinger of something more ominous. This disparity isn’t new—it’s a long-standing feature of a racialized economy. But historically, sharp economic distress in Black communities has often preceded broader downturns. If that pattern holds, we’re not just looking at a crisis for Black workers—we’re staring down a warning for the entire economy.

This isn’t a neutral stagnation. It’s the product of policy choices: disinvestment in public infrastructure, attacks on the safety net and a governing strategy that protects concentrated wealth while leaving working people increasingly vulnerable.


'Good question!’ Trump grilled on whether he'll keep firing people who deliver bad news

Sarah K. Burris
August 1, 2025 
RAW STORY

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters ahed of boarding Marine One to depart for New Jersey, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

After going off on two long rants about his poor job numbers, President Donald Trump took questions from the press on his way to the helicopter en route to his Bedminster, New Jersey, country club. Among the comments he made was in agreement that no one should trust his job numbers.

The new report showed bad numbers for July, but also readjusted the May and June numbers, showing that the two were down significantly.

The first question that Trump got was about his claim that the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was "rigged."

"Oh, yeah, I think so," Trump said as the reporter continued to ask his question. "If you look at before the election, the same kind of thing happened, and I think you'll see some very interesting information come out, but you have to have honest reports, and when you look at those numbers and you look at the numbers just before the election, they corrected it by 800,000 or 900,000 jobs."

The count was 818,000 jobs that accounted for a miscount over the year.

Among the last questions Trump took was from a reporter asking if people should fear for their jobs if they present "information or data you don't like" and whether people should trust the jobs reports in the future.

"I've always had a problem with these numbers! You know, I was thinking about it this morning. Before the numbers that came out, I said, 'Who is the person that does these numbers?' And then they gave me stats about before the election. I had a similar problem. I mean, she gave out numbers that were so good for the Democrats. It was like, unbelievable. And then right after the election, she corrected those numbers, I think, with almost 900,000 correction."

It was not an almost 900,000 correction.

"I think no one had ever seen anything like it. Well, today she did the same thing with the 253,000-whatever the number was. No, no. We need people we can trust. I mean, your question is a very good one. We need people we can trust," said Trump.

The new numbers showed glowing numbers for Trump for the first six months of his presidency, only being corrected in July.

Journalist Phil Mattingly commented earlier on Friday, "This displays an intentional ignorance toward the way economic data is collected, presented, revised, and the federal employees and appointees who do it. It's extraordinarily counterproductive and there's simply no net long game benefit to going down this path."

See the clips below or at the link here.





'Awful': Trump’s latest move sparks fears of 'banana republic' tactics

Brad Reed, 
Common Dreams
August 1, 2025 

U.S. President Donald Trump boards Air Force One on his way to New Jersey from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno


U.S. President Donald Trump stunned economics experts on Friday when he demanded the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the current commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In justifying his call to fire McEntarfer, Trump baselessly accused her of manipulating economic data to hurt him politically by releasing a report showing that the economy only added 73,000 jobs last month.

"McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months," the president wrote on his Truth Social platform. "Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative."

Trump also accused a Federal Reserve committee of conspiring to help former Vice President Kamala Harris beat him last November, writing, "The Economy is BOOMING under 'TRUMP' despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting 'Kamala' elected."

Trump's angry rant about the purportedly rigged jobs report set off alarms among many economists who said that the president's actions would badly damage the credibility of any future numbers put out by the BLS and other agencies.

"Trump firing the BLS director for a bad jobs report—days after demanding the Smithsonian remove him from the list of impeached presidents—is banana republic stuff," remarked Jessica Riedl, an economist at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a conservative think tank. "Trump just ensured that we should not trust any government data coming out of his administration. Why should we trust data from agencies in which the director's job depends on altering any bad economic news?"

Harvard University economist Jason Furman warned that Trump could be setting the stage for a major crisis if his administration really starts faking economic data.

"This is awful," he wrote on Bluesky. "Reliable economic data is a key strength of the U.S. economy. When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises. I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance."

Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, similarly emphasized how important it is that U.S. businesses have access to accurate economic data to make informed decisions.

"By incorrectly asserting that the data are biased, President Trump is undermining the integrity of the information that policymakers, businesses, households, and investors use to make important decisions that affect the welfare of the nation," he warned. "It is imperative that decision-makers understand that government statistics are unbiased and of the highest quality. By casting doubt on that, the president is damaging the United States."

Dean Baker, an economist at the progressive Center for Economic and Policy Research, questioned whether Trump's directive to his team to fire was a fresh sign of mental decline.

"I was thinking that someone on Trump's economic team could explain to him how the data are compiled, but I realize that they can't even explain to him that his big beautiful tariffs are taxes on us," he joked. "I guess in his current mental condition, Trump just can't learn anything new."

Baker then mused that the president's economic advisers could make "a picture book" so they can "explain to Trump how the data are collected."

Some Democratic politicians were also quick to hammer Trump for his call to fire McEntarfer simply for reporting disappointing jobs numbers.

"Instead of helping people get good jobs, Donald Trump just fired the statistician who reported bad jobs data that the wannabe king doesn't like," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) accused Trump of "trying to cook the books by firing the non-political career civil servant who oversees the data, because he wants to hide the truth of his failed policies from the American people."

And Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said that Trump's attack on McEntarfer was a classic sign of failed leadership.

"What does a bad leader do when they get bad news? Shoot the messenger," he said.


Gas workers uncover 1,000-year-old mummy in Peru


By AFP
July 31, 2025


Lima, a city with over 10 million inhabitants, is home to more than500 archaeological sites - Copyright AFP CONNIE FRANCE

A crew of workers accidentally discovered a mummy more than 1,000 years old while installing gas pipes in Peru’s capital Lima, their employer and archaeologists said Thursday.

The mummy was found last week in a tomb underneath a street north of Lima, said archaeologist Jesus Bahamonde.

The mummy was covered in a shroud in a seated position, arms and legs bent.

Pottery was also found in the tomb which was dated to the pre-Inca Chancay civilization that lived around the Lima region between the 11th and 15th centuries.

It was believed to be part of a large, ancient cemetery.

Lima, a city with over 10 million inhabitants, also houses more than 500 archaeological sites.

Gas company Calidda has reported more than 2,200 chance archaeological discoveries since 2004.
In Darwin’s wake: Two-year global conservation voyage sparks hope


By AFP
July 31, 2025


The Oosterschelde arrived home after a two-year voyage - Copyright AFP Jim WATSON
Richard CARTER

After a two-year around-the-world ocean voyage inspired by Charles Darwin, scientists and crew sailed home on a historic vessel into Rotterdam Thursday bearing a warning about climate change — but also a message of hope.

The majestic three-masted Oosterschelde, the last remaining vessel from a fleet of Dutch schooners that criss-crossed the globe in the early 20th century, arrived to a welcome befitting a voyage of more than 40,000 nautical miles (74,000 kilometres, 46,000 miles).

Ceremonially escorted by more than a dozen vessels ranging from tall ships to steamships, all blaring horns, the Oosterschelde received a “water cannon salute” from fire service boats, as hundreds waved and cheered from the banks.

Like Darwin in 1831, the Oosterschelde departed the British port of Plymouth in August 2023 to embark on a voyage of discovery that took in the major stops explored during the British naturalist’s world-changing mission aboard the HMS Beagle.

From the Falkland Islands to the southern tips of Africa, South America and Australia, the trip closely shadowed Darwin’s voyage that inspired his groundbreaking theory of natural selection described in “On the Origin of Species”.

Aboard the Oosterschelde at various points of the voyage were some of the world’s best young conservationists, 100 scientists aged 18-25, selected to study a species also observed by Darwin, himself aged 22 at the time of his trip.

Giant tortoises, Chilean dolphins, and howler monkeys were just some of the weird and wonderful creatures the young “Darwin Leaders” investigated, tracking changes since their appearance in “Origin of Species” two centuries ago.

With “online classrooms” onboard and slick social media output, the mission also hoped to inspire a new generation around the message: “Conservation isn’t about what we’ve lost, it’s about protecting what we still have.”



– ‘Barely anything left’ –




One of the Darwin Leaders, 23-year-old Lotta Baten, spent a week on the ship and conducted a study into the impact of tourism on forests in Tenerife, Spain.

She said only roughly four percent of the forest that Darwin would have seen from the Beagle is still alive today, with much torn down to support the tourism industry.

“There’s barely anything left, mainly the strips around the coast,” the Dutch-German scientist told AFP.

She said it was “quite something” to follow in the footsteps of Darwin, but noted that the botanist’s legacy is divided, as a European in colonial times.

“He basically explored and discovered things that maybe had already been explored and discovered by people at the places themselves. And then he claimed he discovered them,” said Baten.

Science co-ordinator Rolf Schreuder admitted that “it’s not a rosy picture”, with habitat loss and climate change all transforming the environment beyond what Darwin would have recognised.

“You see the natural world degrading in many places,” the 55-year-old told AFP.

But Schreuder, like many on board, found the mission inspiring rather than depressing.

He ran more than 100 local projects during the trip with people seeking to preserve their landscapes.

“We met so many great people that are actually on the ground working on the survival of those species,” he said.

He found himself inspired too by the young scientists, “full of ideas, full of commitment and determination to really make a difference.”



– ‘Do another tour’ –



Crew member Daan van Roosmalen was a boy of 17 when he set sail on the Oosterschelde. He returned to his native Netherlands having just turned 19.

“I’ve just been to so many places. To the Galapagos Islands, French Polynesia. We went so far away and to then sail back up this river and see the skyline of Rotterdam again is just super special,” he told AFP.

He said he hoped the round-the-world voyage completed by scientists and crew his age would send a message to his generation.

“I think it’s very important that we keep inspiring young people to look after our world, because we are going to be the ones taking over,” he said.

“So to see all these young conservationists putting so much effort in Mother Earth… I think that should inspire more people to also take care of our planet.”

And what of Darwin, the inspiration behind the mission?

“I would say he would have been enthused by his fellow young people taking care of this natural world, which he described so nicely,” said Schreuder.

“I think he would hop on this boat again and do another tour.”
What are all these microplastics doing to our brains?


By  AFP
July 31, 2025


Microplastics are everywhere, but data is still lacking about how they could be affecting our brains - Copyright AFP/File Fred TANNEAU


Julien Dury and Daniel Lawler

Tiny shards of plastic called microplastics have been detected accumulating in human brains, but there is not yet enough evidence to say whether this is doing us harm, experts have said.

These mostly invisible pieces of plastic have been found everywhere from the top of mountains to the bottom of oceans, in the air we breathe and the food we eat. They have also been discovered riddled throughout human bodies, inside lungs, hearts, placentas and even crossing the blood-brain barrier.

The increasing ubiquity of microplastics has become a key issue in efforts to hammer out the world’s first plastic pollution treaty, with the latest round of UN talks being held in Geneva next week.

The effects that microplastics and even smaller nanoplastics have on human health is not yet fully understood, but researchers have been working to find out more in this relatively new field.

The most prominent study looking at microplastics in brains was published in the journal Nature Medicine in February.

The scientists tested brain tissue from 28 people who died in 2016 and 24 who died last year in the US state of New Mexico, finding that the amount of microplastics in the samples increased over time.

The study made headlines around the world when the lead researcher, US toxicologist Matthew Campen, told the media that they detected the equivalent of a plastic spoon’s worth of microplastics in the brains.

Campen also told Nature that he estimated the researchers could isolate around 10 grammes of plastic from a donated human brain — comparing that amount to an unused crayon.

– Speculation ‘far beyond the evidence’ –

But other researchers have since urged caution about the small study.

“While this is an interesting finding, it should be interpreted cautiously pending independent verification,” toxicologist Theodore Henry of Scotland’s Heriot-Watt University told AFP.

“Currently, the speculation about the potential effects of plastic particles on health go far beyond the evidence,” he added.

Oliver Jones, a chemistry professor at Australia’s RMIT University, told AFP there was “not enough data to make firm conclusions on the occurrence of microplastics in New Mexico, let alone globally”.

He also found it “rather unlikely” that brains could contain more microplastics than has been found in raw sewage — as the researchers had estimated.

Jones pointed out the people in the study were perfectly healthy before they died, and that the researchers acknowledged there was not enough data to show that the microplastics caused harm.

“If (and it is a big if in my view) there are microplastics in our brains, there is as yet no evidence of harm,” Jones added.

The study also contained duplicated images, the neuroscience news website The Transmitter has reported, though experts said this did not affect its main findings.

– ‘Cannot wait for complete data’ –


Most of the research into the effects microplastics have on health has been observational, which means it cannot establish cause and effect.

One such study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine last year, found that microplastics building up in blood vessels was linked to an increased risk of heart attack, stroke and death in patients with a disease that clogs arteries.

There have also been experiments carried out on mice, including a study in Science Advances in January which detected microplastics in their brains.

The Chinese researchers said that microplastics can cause rare blood clots in the brains of mice by obstructing cells — while emphasising that the small mammals are very different to humans.

A review by the World Health Organization in 2022 found that the “evidence is insufficient to determine risks to human health” from microplastics.

However many health experts have cited the precautionary principle, saying the potential threat microplastics could pose requires action.

A report on the health risks of microplastics by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health published this week ahead of the treaty talks said that “policy decisions cannot wait for complete data”.

“By acting now to limit exposure, improve risk assessment methodologies, and prioritise vulnerable populations, we can address this pressing issue before it escalates into a broader public health crisis,” it added.

The amount of plastic the world produces has doubled since 2000 — and is expected to triple from current rates by 2060.
France says it cannot save contraceptives US plans to destroy


By AFP
August 1, 2025


A Belgian warehouse where US-funded contraceptives have been stored -- and which the US intends to destroy - Copyright AFP/File Kate GILLAM
Marine Pennetier and Daniel Lawler

France said Friday it could not seize women’s contraception products estimated to be worth $9.7 million that the United States plans to destroy, after media reports suggested the stockpile would be incinerated in the country.

The contraceptives — intended for some of the world’s poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa — were purchased by the US foreign aid agency USAID under former president Joe Biden.

But France’s health ministry told AFP Friday there was no legal way for it to intervene.

The administration of Biden’s successor Donald Trump, which has slashed USAID and pursued anti-abortion policies, confirmed last month it planned to destroy the contraceptives, which have been stored in a warehouse in the Belgian city of Geel.

According to several media reports, the unexpired products were to be incinerated in France at the end of July by a company that specialises in destroying medical waste.

France’s government has come under pressure to save the contraceptives, with women’s rights groups calling the US decision “insane”.

The health ministry told AFP that the government had “examined the courses of action available to us, but unfortunately there is no legal basis for intervention by a European health authority, let alone the French national drug safety authority, to recover these medical products.

“Since contraceptives are not drugs of major therapeutic interest, and in this case we are not facing a supply shortage, we have no means to requisition the stocks,” it added.

The ministry also said it had no information on where the contraceptives would be destroyed.

– Leaving Belgian warehouse –

Sarah Durocher, head of the French women’s rights group Family Planning, told AFP that some contraceptives had already left the Belgian warehouse.

“We were informed 36 hours ago that the removal of these boxes of contraceptives had begun,” Durocher said Thursday.

“We do not know where these trucks are now — or whether they have arrived in France,” she added.

“We call on all incineration companies not to destroy the contraceptives and to oppose this insane decision.”

French company Veolia confirmed to AFP that it had a contract with the US firm Chemonics, USAID’s logistics provider.

But Veolia emphasised that the contract concerned “only the management of expired products, which is not the case for the stockpile” in Belgium.

The products, mostly long-acting contraceptives such as IUDs and birth control implants, are reportedly up to five years away from expiring.

– Outrage over decision –

The US decision has provoked an outcry in France, where rights groups and left-wing politicians have called on their government to stop the plan.


“France cannot become the scene of such operations — a moratorium is essential,” an opinion piece in the French daily Le Monde said Friday. Signed by five NGOs, it condemned the “absurdity” of the US decision.

Among them was MSI Reproductive Choices, one of several organisations that have offered to purchase and repackage the contraceptives at no cost to the US government.

 All offers have been rejected.

Last week, New Hampshire’s Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen pointed to the Trump administration’s stated goal of reducing government waste, saying the contraceptives plan “is the epitome of waste, fraud and abuse”.

A US State Department spokesperson told AFP earlier this week that the destruction of the products would cost $167,000 and “no HIV medications or condoms are being destroyed”.

The spokesperson pointed to a policy that prohibits providing aid to non-governmental organisations that perform or promote abortions.

The Mexico City Policy, which critics call the “global gag rule”, was first introduced by President Ronald Reagan in 1984. It has been reinstated under every Republican president since.

Last month, the US also incinerated nearly 500 metric tons of high-nutrition biscuits that had been meant to keep malnourished children in Afghanistan and Pakistan alive.
Landslide-prone Nepal tests AI-powered warning system

By AFP
July 31, 2025


Nepal is especially vulnerable due to unstable geology, shifting rainfall patterns and poorly planned development - Copyright AFP Prakash MATHEMA
Anup OJHA

Every morning, Nepali primary school teacher Bina Tamang steps outside her home and checks the rain gauge, part of an early warning system in one of the world’s most landslide-prone regions.

Tamang contributes to an AI-powered early warning system that uses rainfall and ground movement data, local observations and satellite imagery to predict landslides up to weeks in advance, according to its developers at the University of Melbourne.

From her home in Kimtang village in the hills of northwest Nepal, 29-year-old Tamang sends photos of the water level to experts in the capital Kathmandu, a five-hour drive to the south.

“Our village is located in difficult terrain, and landslides are frequent here, like many villages in Nepal,” Tamang told AFP.

Every year during the monsoon season, floods and landslides wreak havoc across South Asia, killing hundreds of people.

Nepal is especially vulnerable due to unstable geology, shifting rainfall patterns and poorly planned development.

As a mountainous country, it is already “highly prone” to landslides, said Rajendra Sharma, an early warning expert at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority.

“And climate change is fuelling them further. Shifting rainfall patterns, rain instead of snowfall in high altitudes and even increase in wildfires are triggering soil erosion,” Sharma told AFP.

– Saving lives –

Landslides killed more than 300 people last year and were responsible for 70 percent of monsoon-linked deaths, government data shows.

Tamang knows the risks first hand.

When she was just five years old, her family and dozens of others relocated after soil erosion threatened their village homes.

They moved about a kilometre (0.6 miles) uphill, but a strong 2015 earthquake left the area even more unstable, prompting many families to flee again.

“The villagers here have lived in fear,” Tamang said.

“But I am hopeful that this new early warning system will help save lives.”

The landslide forecasting platform was developed by Australian professor Antoinette Tordesillas with partners in Nepal, Britain and Italy.

Its name, SAFE-RISCCS, is an acronym of a complex title — Spatiotemporal Analytics, Forecasting and Estimation of Risks from Climate Change Systems.

“This is a low-cost but high-impact solution, one that’s both scientifically informed and locally owned,” Tordesillas told AFP.

Professor Basanta Adhikari from Nepal’s Tribhuvan University, who is involved in the project, said that similar systems were already in use in several other countries, including the United States and China.

“We are monitoring landslide-prone areas using the same principles that have been applied abroad, adapted to Nepal’s terrain,” he told AFP.

“If the system performs well during this monsoon season, we can be confident that it will work in Nepal as well, despite the country’s complex Himalayan terrain.”

In Nepal, it is being piloted in two high-risk areas: Kimtang in Nuwakot district and Jyotinagar in Dhading district.

– Early warnings –


Tamang’s data is handled by technical advisers like Sanjaya Devkota, who compares it against a threshold that might indicate a landslide.

“We are still in a preliminary stage, but once we have a long dataset, the AI component will automatically generate a graphical view and alert us based on the rainfall forecast,” Devkota said.

“Then we report to the community, that’s our plan.”

The experts have been collecting data for two months, but will need a data set spanning a year or two for proper forecasting, he added.

Eventually, the system will deliver a continuously updated landslide risk map, helping decision makers and residents take preventive actions and make evacuation plans.

The system “need not be difficult or resource-intensive, especially when it builds on the community’s deep local knowledge and active involvement”, Tordesillas said.

Asia suffered more climate and weather-related hazards than any other region in 2023, according to UN data, with floods and storms the most deadly and costly.

And while two-thirds of the region have early warning systems for disasters in place, many other vulnerable countries have little coverage.

In the last decade, Nepal has made progress on flood preparedness, installing 200 sirens along major rivers and actively involving communities in warning efforts.

The system has helped reduce flooding deaths, said Binod Parajuli, a flood expert with the government’s hydrology department.

“However, we have not been able to do the same for landslides because predicting them is much more complicated,” he said.

“Such technologies are absolutely necessary if Nepal wants to reduce its monsoon toll.”
Indonesia volcano belches six-mile ash tower

A DAY AFTER 8.8 RUSSIAN EARTHQUAKE 


By AFP
August 1, 2025


Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki spewed a column of molten ash topped with volcanic lighnting into the Flores' night sky - Copyright Indonesia's Geological Agency/AFP -

An Indonesian volcano spewed a 10-kilometre (6.2-miles) molten plume of ash topped by lightning into the Friday night sky, weeks after another huge eruption triggered dozens of flight cancellations in Bali.

Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki, a 1,584-metre-high volcano on the tourist island of Flores, erupted at 20:48 pm (1248 GMT), the volcanology agency said in a statement.

“The height of the eruption column was observed to be approximately 10,000 metres above the summit,” the agency said.

There were no immediate reports of damages or casualties.

The eruption was triggered by a gas buildup in recent weeks, geological agency head Muhammad Wafid said in a statement.

He also warned of the possibility of hazardous lahar floods — a type of mud or debris flow of volcanic materials — if heavy rain occurs, particularly for communities near rivers.

Tourists and residents were told to avoid a six-kilometre radius around the crater.

Pictures shared by the country’s geological agency showed volcanic lightning near the top of the ash plume.

Last month, the volcano spewed a colossal 18-kilometre tower of ash, scrapping 24 flights at Bali’s international airport.

There were no immediate reports of cancelled flights after Friday’s eruption.

Laki-Laki, which means man in Indonesian, is twinned with the calmer but taller 1,703-metre (5,587-foot) volcano named Perempuan, after the Indonesian word for woman.

Indonesia, a vast archipelago nation, experiences frequent seismic and volcanic activity due to its position on the Pacific “Ring of Fire”.