Saturday, August 30, 2025

PAKISTAN FLOODING

Karachi floods

Arif Hasan 
August 30, 2025
The writer is an architect.
DAWN

IT rained heavily in 2020. And now it is 2025. The rains have once again devastated Karachi. We have witnessed flooded streets, huge traffic jams, students, working-class employees, motorcyclists and other commuters unable to reach their homes in a paralysed city.

Karachi’s people are willing to help marooned citizens in any way they can. Given the time that has elapsed between 2020 and 2025, the Karachi public is angry and is asking a relevant question: what have Karachi agencies done in the last five years to tackle flooding and related issues in the city? The answer is — nothing. The agencies respond that precipitation patterns have changed and because of that it is not possible to predict how the rain system for Karachi will evolve. They also point out that other South Asian cities, like Mumbai, face problems similar to those of Karachi.

Over the past few years, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and local agencies have tried to tackle Karachi’s drainage problems. In 2021, a survey by NED University, tasked with conducting a study of Karachi’s settlements, identified three Karachi nullahs that needed to be cleared of encroachments to facilitate the flow of water. Professionals, NGOs and ‘experts’ objected to the survey because they considered it to be one of ‘properties’ and not of people or households. As a result of the survey, about 7,500 families were removed from around the Orangi, Mehmoodabad and Gujjar nullahs so that Karachi would not flood. Their houses were bulldozed and they became homeless. The Supreme Court, while permitting the demolition, ordered the rehabilitation of those affected.

There has been much agitation by civil society against the ‘cruelty’ that the process has generated, and Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari promised that the affected population would be rehabilitated. Recently, the Sindh High Court ordered that, in compliance with Supreme Court directives, the evicted population be rehoused, with funds allocated by the Sindh government. However, not much work has been done to implement judicial orders.

As has been pointed out by my colleagues and myself several times, one of the major drainage problems that the city faces is that its outfalls to the sea are blocked for the most part, and even where they are not, the gates to the outfalls do not function. A detailed study of the Mehmoodabad nullah was carried out by the Technical Training Resource Centre (TTRC), an Orangi-based organisation. The study discovered that the majority of gates which feed the outfalls to the Gizri Creek were inoperable, thus preventing more than 70 per cent of effluent from reaching the outfalls and leading to the flooding of large areas in DHA Phase IV and VII.

What have Karachi agencies done to tackle urban flooding.

The other interesting fact the study revealed was that the Mehmoodabad nullah was served by 34 smaller nullahs, which flowed into it in its journey to the Gizri Creek. These sub-nullahs are also blocked by garbage and debris and stop rainwater from flowing into the main nullah, causing floods in the settlements they pass through. Unless they are desilted and maintained, the Mehmoodabad nullah cannot function to its full capacity. There is, except for the TTRC study, no mapping of the 34 sub-nullahs or the Mehmoodabad outfall to the sea.

The desilting carried out by the NDMA and local government agencies did not even reduce flooding, let alone arrest it. The desilting and construction of the reinforced concrete retaining walls are incomplete to this day.

So one thing is clear: that removing low-income settlem­ents alone will not solve Karachi’s dra­inage problems. There are also middle-class and elite houses that are stopping the flow of floodwaters. May­be, a study of removing should also be considered.

But there are other problems as well. This relates to the estate developers’ greed for land and their control over the land market and the government agencies which help them operate it. For example, the Orangi nullah has roads on either side of it and these have been increased to nine metres in width, although only 3.5 metres are required. Given the location of the Orangi nullah from the Lyari Expressway to the RCD highway, this is an ideal place for real estate development, which will surely take place, creating further flooding across Karachi and increasing traffic problems.

If a solution to Karachi’s drainage-related issues and problems is required then all the points discussed above will have to be taken into consideration. It has to be understood that without efficient institutional arrangements these issues cannot be resolved.

arifhasan37@gmail.com

www.arifhasan.org

Published in Dawn, August 30th, 2025

War, then water: Pakistan’s border villagers face back-to-back evacuations


Across flood-hit Kasur, families say they are exhausted by repeated displacements within months.


Reuters Published August 30, 2025

When floodwaters from across the Indian border surged into her village in Pakistan’s Punjab this month, Shama knew what to do: gather her four children and prepare to leave.

It was the second time this year she has had to flee, after abandoning her home during cross-border fighting between India and Pakistan in May.

“How many times do we need to evacuate now?” the 30-year-old mother said, her husband away ferrying their 10 cows to higher ground on a boat. “We lost out on so much during the war like school days for the children, and now the water is forcing us out again. Trouble is trouble.”


A Rescue 1122 boat evacuates people from the flooded area past partially submerged houses, following the monsoon rains and rising water level of the Sutlej River, in Chanda Singh Wala village near the Pakistan-India border in Punjab’s Kasur district, on August 29. — Reuters


Shama’s ordeal is echoed across flood-hit Kasur, where families say they are exhausted by repeated displacements within months, first from the fighting, now from nature.

“The floods started earlier this month and only got worse,” said 27-year-old mother Bibi Zubaida, who lives with seven relatives in a three-bedroom house opposite a mosque that now broadcasts evacuation calls.

From the mosque loudspeakers, usually reserved for the call to prayer, came a different message: boats were ready for anyone who wanted to leave.

“When you live here, you choose to live with the threat of war and the threat of floods. Where does one go?” Zubaida said.

Kasur lies just a few kilometres from the Indian border. From their rooftops and rescue boats, residents said they could see Indian checkposts across the horizon, a reminder of how closely their fate is tied to decisions made on the other side.



Houses are partially submerged following monsoon rains and rising water levels of the Sutlej River, in Chanda Singh Wala village near the Pakistan-India border in Punjab’s Kasur district, on August 29. — Reuters


The nations share rivers that were regulated for more than six decades under the Indus Waters Treaty. That agreement was suspended by India earlier this year, following the shooting of 26 people by militants that New Delhi said were backed by Islamabad, which Pakistan denies.

That attack triggered brief but intense cross-border battles between the nuclear-armed neighbours, driving villagers like Shama from their homes.

Then came the monsoon, and the rivers turned to flood.

On narrow wooden boats, families balanced motorcycles, belongings, and bleating goats alongside their children, as rescue workers steered them through fields now turned into rivers.

Rescue worker Muhammad Arsalan said many villagers hesitated to evacuate. “People don’t always want to leave because they’re scared of thieves stealing what they’re leaving behind. They’re reluctant because they’ve done it so many times already,” said Arsalan, who has ferried more than 1,500 people to safety by boat in recent days.

“They love their goats and sheep, and sometimes refuse to leave without them,” he added, pausing to clear leaves stuck in the motor before restarting another run.

The Punjab provincial disaster management authority said flows in the Sutlej River at Ganda Singh Wala were the highest in decades, after a breach at an Indian barrage. At least 28 deaths have been reported so far, with water pushing further south through Punjab and threatening new areas.




Muhammad Arslan, 27, an operator at Rescue 1122, drives a boat heading to evacuate residents, following the monsoon rains and rising water level of the Sutlej River, in Talwar Check Post near the Pakistan-India border in Punjab’s Kasur district, on August 29. — Reuters

In India, cloud bursts in Ramban and Mahore regions of Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir killed 10 people. Pakistani officials said the crisis was worsened by India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, halting the decades-old exchange of river data.

Islamabad also accused India of releasing large volumes of water without adequate warning.

“If the treaty was in operation, we could have managed the impact better,” Pakistan’s Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal told Reuters on Friday.

India has denied deliberately flooding Pakistan. It has blamed incessant monsoon rains and said it issued multiple flood alerts. Two gates of the Madhopur barrage on the Ravi River were damaged by surging water, Indian officials said.

Farmers say the deluge has wrecked their livelihoods. “Thirteen of my 15 acres are gone,” said Muhammad Amjad, a rice and vegetable grower. “Women and children are mainly evacuated. Men stay behind to guard whats left.”

The back-to-back displacements have underscored the vulnerability of communities straddling Pakistan’s volatile eastern border.

Officials warn the crisis could worsen as climate change intensifies monsoons and cross-border river disputes strain disaster planning.

“I’ve seen many floods, but they are coming too often now,” said Nawabuddin, a 74-year-old landowner, recalling the most memorable floods he witnessed in his lifetime — 1988, 2023 and now this one.

“We don’t want war, we don’t want excess water. We just want to live,” said Zubaida, whose newly renovated home and farmland now lie underwater.

Header Image: Residents travel with their belongings on a boat as they head towards higher ground, following the monsoon rains and rising water level of the Sutlej River, in Chanda Singh Wala village near the Pakistan-India border in Punjab’s Kasur district, on August 29. — Reuters



Smog then floods: Pakistani families ‘can’t catch a break’


By AFP
August 29, 2025


Copyright AFP Aamir QURESHI

Shrouq TARIQ

Perched on her neighbour’s rooftop, Ghulam Bano gazes down at the remains of her home, submerged in murky, foul-smelling floodwater that has engulfed much of Pakistan’s Punjab region.

Monsoon rains this week swelled three transboundary rivers that cut through Pakistan’s eastern province, the nation’s agricultural heartland and home to nearly half of its 255 million people.

Bano moved to Shahdara town last year, on the outskirts of Lahore, to avoid the choking smog pollution of Pakistan’s second-largest city, only to have her new beginning overturned by raging floods.

“My husband had started coughing blood and his condition just kept getting worse when the smog hit,” Bano told AFP, walking through muddy streets.

Pakistan regularly ranks among the world’s most polluted countries, with Lahore often the most polluted megacity between November and February.

“I thought the smog was bad enough — I never thought it could be worse with the floods,” she said.

Her impoverished neighbourhood is home to thousands of low-lying homes crammed together on narrow streets.

The nearby overflowing Ravi river flooded many of them, forcing dozens of families to take refuge in an elementary school on higher ground, where doctors were treating people for skin infections linked to the flood water.

More heavy rain is predicted over the weekend, including warnings of increased urban flooding in Lahore, which borders India.

With her husband bedridden from tuberculosis, worsened by the relentless smog, Bano became the sole provider in a household struggling to breathe, survive, and endure the floods.

“I ate today after two days. There is no clean water to drink. I left my daughter at a relative’s place and stayed back hoping the water recedes,” she said.



– No time to pack –



Landslides and floods triggered by heavier-than-usual monsoon rains have killed more than 800 people nationwide since June this year.

While South Asia’s seasonal monsoon brings rainfall that farmers depend on, climate change is making the phenomenon more erratic, unpredictable and deadly across the region.

More than 1.4 million people living near the rivers have been affected by the floods, with over 265,000 evacuated, said Azma Bukhari, the provincial information minister.

The latest monsoon downpour has killed at least 13 people, according to the National Disaster Management Authority.

“We just can’t get a break,” Amir Mehmood, a 32-year-old shopkeeper in the same neighbourhood as Bano, told AFP.

“Children fall ill in the smog because of the extreme cold. Some become sick due to the (everyday) unsanitary conditions,” he said, referring to piles of waste that routinely line the streets.

“And now there’s a flood. Our homes have collapsed, the walls have fallen, and everything is damaged.”

He moved his family to a relative’s home on the other side of the town along with his 10 cows and two goats as the water crept closer.

More than 300 relief camps have been set up across the province to shelter those displaced with no family to turn to.

“The women you see here, and me, we had to run for our lives… we did not even get the time to get clothes for our kids,” 40-year-old widow Tabassum Suleman told AFP from the school camp.

“We do not know when we will be going back home,” she said, looking up at the dark skies.

“But the worst is yet to come.”


Footprints: When the flood hit Kartarpur

August 30, 2025
DAWN



Flooded and deserted, Gurdwara Darbar Sahib was an eerie sight to behold.


BY now, everyone has seen the iconic pictures of Gurdwara Darbar Sahib at Kartarpur submerged in floodwaters. This is the story of how we got those pictures, and what I saw along the way.

The first images from Kartarpur appeared on social and mainstream media on Wednesday. These were filmed by rescue officials during efforts to evacuate households on the premises — the families of the shrine’s caretakers and others.

They were all evacuated by boat, as the water level inside the Kartarpur complex was too high to venture in any other way.

We arrived in Narowal after nightfall on Thurs­d­­ay, and despite requests from our newsroom, we were unable to immediately secure any usable photographs.

Although Narowal city was spared, its suburbs and the villages and tehsils on its outskirts bore the brunt of the waters that came pouring out of the Ravi and the half a dozen rainwater drains (nullahs) that flow into the district from India. These inc­lude Nullah Dek, Basanter, Baen and Auj.

Abid Mehmood, our correspondent in the area, described their flow thus: “Auj and Baen enter the Ravi in Shakargarh tehsil before Kartarpur, while Basanter enters the river after Kartarpur. But this time, the force of the floodwater in the Ravi pushed back the water in these drains. This caused more damage.”

At this point, he says, the river has the capacity of around 150,000 cusecs, but it overflowed its banks upon receiving around 250,000 cusecs.

Getting to the gurdwara was no easy task. Drenched from the chest down, I held my camera aloft above my head as we hung onto a tractor trolley that was ferrying locals to and from the flooded villages around Kartarpur.

The trolley was filled to the brim, but I managed to find a foothold and hung on for dear life. Along the way, locals trying to escape the waters would call out to me: “Don’t go, you’ll fall,” or “watch yourself” are the most printable of the refrains yelled my way as we trundled towards the gurdwara.

Along the way, the tractor trolley picked up more and more marooned folk. Although authorities had mandated evacuation, there were still some holdouts who refused to leave their homes.

It was only after their houses were submerged that these people realised their mistake; I heard many a cry of “we’re doomed” and “everything is gone” from the roadsides.





LOCALS stop bikers going ‘against the flow’ on Shakargarh Road.—Photo by the writer


In the morning, when we finally made it to Kartarpur complex, the only way to approach was by boat. We abandoned our vehicle around 1.5km away on Shakargarh Road and boarded a rescue boat, which took us to the gurdwara itself.

By this time, the structure had been evacuated; even the security check posts were submerged and empty. The main darbar on the ground floor was completely inundated, with only the upper storey untouched by the floodwaters.

On our way back, the daylight offered some sobering perspective. There was only water all around as far as the eye could see, submerging fields and villages alike.

But there was still hope. Hiace vans were now ferrying stranded people to and fro along with their belongings. These were being operated by singer Abrarul Haq’s charity — the Sahara Trust — which also runs a hospital in the district.

According to our correspondent, Abid, the floodwaters hadn’t affected Narowal city as badly; it was the suburbs and villages on the outskirts that bore the brunt of the damage. According to one estimate, at least 145 villages were impacted, and their crops destroyed.

Abid says that water is now slowly receding from the rural tehsils, but it has already caused significant damage to agriculture, especially rice and fodder crops, as well as infrastructure, including the roads. “Narowal-Shakargarh road was closed while Narowal-Zafarwal road was submerged in the floodwater making travel on either impossible.”

In his words, locals know that if there is more heavy rainfall in the Ravi’s catchment areas (in India-held Kashmir), it could prove dangerous for Narowal. But if the downpour isn’t torrential, things would be fine.

Saba Chaudhry, a freelance journalist based in Narowal, told Dawn she was in Noorpur village near Shakargarh when the flood from Nullah Dek hit the area. Her village remained safe as it was located on higher ground, but there was floodwater all around.

“The main road on Manzoorpura Plot was completely submerged in two to three feet deep water.”

Noorpur and its surrounding villages become disconnected from the district headquarters, making travel in and out impossible.

On Friday, three days after Kartarpur and her village were submerged, she visited the gurdwara.

“The authorities had managed to drain the water from the complex, but floodwater still surrounds the building,” she says, adding that at least the roads have now reopened.

Published in Dawn, August 30th, 2025


PM House is actively working,Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal and Myself as State Minister are making every effort to rescue the pilgrims and staff at Baba Guru Nanak Kartarpur Corridor,Rescue 1122 is using boats,Will take care of every single person.



War on academia




Published August 30, 2025
DAWN


MUCH of President Donald Trump’s voter base is suspicious of the US higher education sector, particularly more liberal colleges. This distrust is beginning to show in official policies. The Trump administration has sought to limit student visas for foreigners to four years. As per the Department of Homeland Security, the steps are being taken to prevent “forever students” from extending their stay in the US. The department claims such students pose safety risks to the US, while burdening the American taxpayer. However, according to the government’s own data, foreign students brought in over $50bn to the economy in 2023. Even before these steps were announced, foreign students were facing increasing curbs. This year, over 6,000 student visas have been revoked, including for “support for terrorism”, which in many cases translates to pro-Palestine activism, while the State Department has ordered US missions abroad to increase vetting of applicants for “hostile attitudes”.

There are various reasons for the crackdown on foreign students. For one, this administration is ideologically opposed to immigration; Maga supporters see foreign student visas as an easy path to US residency and citizenship, with foreigners ‘taking away’ American jobs. Moreover, the American far right dislikes higher education. The US vice president, before taking office, referred to universities as “the enemy” while Mr Trump has claimed US colleges are “dominated by Marxist maniacs and lunatics”. Considering the prevailing trends, foreign students, including those from Pakistan, seeking to study in the US may want to alter their plans. Though the US indeed boasts a world-class tertiary education sector, getting American visas for foreigners may become even more difficult in the days to come, though in an apparent U-turn, Mr Trump still hopes to welcome Chinese students. Yet America does not have a monopoly on knowledge, and foreign students should explore other, more welcoming options.

Published in Dawn, August 30th, 2025
Trump scraps India visit for Quad summit amid deteriorating ties: report

Published August 30, 2025

US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands as they attend a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, DC, US, February 13. — Reuters/File

United States President Donald Trump has scrapped plans to attend an upcoming summit of the ‘Quad’ grouping in India amid deteriorating ties between Washington and New Delhi, US newspaper The New York Times (NYT) reported on Saturday.

Relations between the two countries have plummeted, with 50 per cent levies on many Indian imports into the US taking effect this week as punishment for New Delhi’s massive purchases of Russian oil; a part of US efforts to pressure Moscow into ending its war in Ukraine.

As ties between both nations deteriorate, NYT reported on Saturday that the breakdown in relations was caused after a phone call on June 17.

“After telling [Indian Prime Minister Narendra] Modi that he would travel to India later this year for the Quad summit, Mr Trump no longer has plans to visit in the fall, according to people familiar with the president’s schedule,” the NYT reported, citing “interviews with more than a dozen people in Washington and New Delhi”.

The NYT mentioned how Trump’s repeated claims about having ended the recent brief conflict between India and Pakistan reportedly “infuriated” Modi. The paper added that the dispute “dates back more than 75 years and is far deeper and more complicated than Mr Trump was making it out to be”.

India blamed Pakistan for the April 22 Pahalgam attack without evidence, triggering a military escalation. On May 6–7, New Delhi launched air strikes that killed civilians, followed by a week-long missile exchange. A US-brokered ceasefire ended the war.

“During a phone call on June 17, Mr Trump brought it up again, saying how proud he was of ending the military escalation,” the NYT reported.

“He mentioned that Pakistan was going to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, an honour for which he had been openly campaigning. The not-so-subtle implication, according to people familiar with the call, was that Mr Modi should do the same.”

It added that the “bristled” Indian premier told Trump that American involvement had nothing to do with the ceasefire and the conflict had been settled directly between India and Pakistan.

“Mr Trump largely brushed off Mr Modi’s comments, but the disagreement — and Mr Modi’s refusal to engage on the Nobel — has played an outsize role in the souring relationship between the two leaders, whose once-close ties go back to Mr Trump’s first term,” the report reads, adding that the two leaders have not spoken since the June 17 phone conversation and Trump has only doubled down on taking credit for the ceasefire.

Amid this dispute, India has grown closer to Beijing and Moscow. Modi is currently in Tianjin, China, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s Council of Heads of State summit, where he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“At its core, the story of Mr Trump and Mr Modi is about two brash, populist leaders with big egos and authoritarian tendencies, and the web of loyalties that help keep both men in power,” the NYT reported.

“But it is also the tale of an American president with his eye on a Nobel Prize, running smack into the immovable third rail of Indian politics: the conflict with Pakistan.”

Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Modi turned down an invitation from Trump to visit the White House after a G7 meeting in Canada, over concerns that he would set up a meeting with Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Field Marshal Asim Munir, who was visiting the US at the time.

Reporting the same, NYT said: “Modi declined an invitation from Mr Trump to stop by Washington before he flew home. His officials were scandalised that Mr Trump might try to force their leader into a handshake with Pakistan’s army chief, who had also been invited to the White House for lunch around the same time. It was another clear sign, a senior Indian official said, that Mr Trump cared little for the complexity of their issue or the sensitivities and history around it.”

The COAS carried out two visits to the US. The first, in June, saw him meet Trump at the White House for luncheon, making him the first sitting army chief to do so.

The field marshal termed his second visit to the US in just one-and-a-half months a “new dimension” in ties between Washington and Islamabad. During this trip, the COAS engaged in high-level interactions with senior political and military leadership, as well as members of the Pakistani diaspora.

Pakistan and the US also finalised a trade deal at the start of August, lowering tariffs to 19pc from the previously announced 29pc and helping develop Pakistan’s oil reserves while trade talks between the US and India have stalled.

Trump thumbs nose at decades of India courtship



By AFP
August 28, 2025


Activists burn an effigy of Trump to protest against tariff hikes during a demonstration in Kolkata - Copyright AFP/File Dibyangshu SARKAR

Shaun TANDON

India once united US policymakers like few issues. For nearly three decades, US presidents of both parties courted New Delhi as an emerging ally, politely overlooking disagreements for the sake of larger goals.

Donald Trump has abruptly changed that.

The US administration on Wednesday slapped 50 percent tariffs on many Indian products as Trump seeks to punish India for buying oil from Russia.

India was a Cold War partner of Moscow but since the 1990s US leaders have hoped for a joint front with fellow democracy India in the face of the rise of China, seen by Washington as its top long-term adversary.

In striking timing, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to China this weekend, the latest meeting between the world’s two most populous nations as they explore areas of common ground.

Trump has accused India of fueling Moscow’s deadly attacks on Ukraine by purchasing Russian oil. Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro even called Ukraine “Modi’s war” in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday.

Yet Trump has refrained from tougher US sanctions on Russia itself, saying he still hopes for a negotiated settlement despite wide pessimism.

“This is not just about tariffs, not just about Russia, not just about oil,” said Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution.

“There seems to be something broader going on here — personal on Trump’s side, piqued as he may be at India,” she said.

“And then on the Indian side, for Modi, it becomes a political issue.”



– Faltering bromance –



Trump and Modi, both right-wing populists, appeared to forge a strong bond during Trump’s first term.

In 2020, Trump rejoiced as Modi invited him to inaugurate the world’s largest cricket stadium in front more than 120,000 people.

But Trump has since appeared irritated as he seeks credit for what he said was Nobel Prize-worthy diplomacy between Pakistan and India, which struck its neighbor in May in response to a massacre of Indian civilians in divided Kashmir.

India, which adamantly rejects any third-party mediation on Kashmir, has since given the cold shoulder to Trump as he muses of brokering between New Delhi and Islamabad.

Pakistan by contrast has embraced Trump’s attention, with its powerful army chief meeting him at the White House.

US policymakers have long skirted around India’s sensitivities on Kashmir and sought to contain fallout from disagreements on other issues.

Jake Sullivan, national security advisor under Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden, said that Trump had broken a bipartisan consensus with his “massive trade offensive” against India.

India is now thinking “I guess maybe we have to go show up in Beijing and sit with the Chinese because we’ve got to hedge against America,” Sullivan told news and opinion site The Bulwark.

Madan said that for the Indian establishment, the tariffs contradicted US assurances that unlike China, Washington would not use “economic ties to coerce India.”

“If you’re India, even if you sort this particular issue out, you’re now saying, we used to see this increasing interaction with the US across many domains as an opportunity,” she said.

“And now Trump has made us realize that we should also see that integration or dependence as a vulnerability.”



– Chance for China –



For China, Modi’s trip is an opportunity “to drive a wedge between India and the US,” said William Yang, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“Beijing won’t miss the opportunity to present itself as a ‘reliable partner’ that is interested in deepening relations with New Delhi,” he said.

But he noted that India and China still had fundamental differences, despite recent efforts to resolve a longstanding border dispute.

China is the key partner and military supplier of Pakistan and has sought to ramp up influence in the Indian Ocean.

Kriti Upadhyaya, a visiting fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, played down long-term consequences of the tariff rift, noting how much the US-India relationship has developed in recent years.

“When you really like somebody, a friend who’s close to you, you’re always going to have more grievances with them,” she said.
New $250 visa fee risks deepening US travel slump


August 30, 2025

A new $250 “visa integrity fee” imposed on travellers to the United States risks piling more pressure on the struggling travel industry, as overseas arrivals continue to fall due to President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration and hostility to many foreign countries.

Overseas travel to the US fell 3.1 per cent year-on-year in July to 19.2 million visitors, according to US government data. It was the fifth month of decline this year, defying expectations that 2025 would see annual inbound visitors finally surpass the pre-pandemic level of 79.4m.

The new visa fee, set to go into effect on October 1, adds an additional hurdle for travellers from non-visa waiver countries such as Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China. The extra charge raises the total visa cost to $442, one of the highest visitor fees in the world, according to the US Travel Association, a membership organisation.

“Any friction we add to the traveller experience is going to cut travel volumes by some amount,” said Gabe Rizzi, President of Altour, a global travel management company. “As the summer ends, this will become a more pressing issue, and we’ll have to factor the fees into travel budgets and documentation.”

International visitor spending in the US is projected to fall below $169 billion this year, down from $181bn in 2024, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council.

The visa fee reinforces a bleak perception of the US under Trump, whose immigration policies, cuts to foreign aid and sweeping tariffs have eroded America’s appeal as a destination — even with major events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup and Los Angeles 2028 Olympics on the horizon.

The Trump administration on Wednesday proposed government regulation that aims to tighten the duration of visas for students, cultural exchange visitors and members of the media.

In early August, the administration said the US could require bonds of up to $15,000 for some tourist and business visas under a pilot programme effective August 20 that will last for approximately a year, in an effort to crack down on visitors overstaying their visas.

Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics consultancy, forecast in December 2024 that overseas travel to the US in 2025 would increase more than 10pc year-over-year. Instead, it is on track to fall 3pc, said Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics.

“We see it as a sustained setback, and we anticipate much of it is in place throughout the administration,” Ryan said.
Hardest hit

The newest visa fee is likely to hit hardest in Central and South American countries that have been a rare bright spot for US travel this year.

As of May, travel from Mexico to the US was up nearly 14pc in 2025, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office.

Arrivals from Argentina rose 20pc and from Brazil 4.6pc year-to-date. Overall, travel from Central America grew 3pc and from South America 0.7pc, compared with a decline of 2.3pc from Western Europe.


Bar chart shows overseas visitors to the US by world region of residence


In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic, with July numbers still 53pc below 2019 levels. The visa fee also threatens travel from India, where visits are down 2.4pc so far this year, driven by a near 18pc drop in students.

For some, the rise in fees will be absorbed as just another cost in an already expensive trip to the US.

“The US has always been selective about its visitors. If your financial standing isn’t up to par, getting a visa is tough anyway,“ said Su Shu, founder of Chinese firm Moment Travel in Chengdu.

As foreign visitors face higher entry fees, US travellers worry about stricter requirements being imposed abroad, said James Kitchen, travel agent and owner of Seas 2 Day & Travel.

“Travellers have expressed concern around reciprocal fees that may be imposed in the coming months,” Kitchen said.