It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, October 07, 2025
2023 ocean heatwave ‘unprecedented but not unexpected’
The June 2023 heatwave in northern European seas was “unprecedented but not unexpected”, new research shows.
During the heatwave, temperatures in the shallow seas around the UK (including the North Sea and Celtic Sea) reached 2.9°C above the June average for 16 days.
While unprecedented since observations began, the study warns that rapid climate change means there is now about a 10% chance of a marine heatwave of this scale occurring each year.
The June 2023 marine heatwave significantly disrupted phytoplankton blooms. Although its full impact on marine ecosystems remain to be assessed, such heatwaves can stress marine species and increase concentrations of bacteria that can harm humans.
The study was carried out by the University of Exeter, the Met Office and Cefas.
“Our findings show that marine heatwaves are a problem now – not just a risk from future climate change,” said Dr Jamie Atkins, who led the study during his PhD at Exeter, and is now at Utrecht University.
“The unprecedented nature of the June 2023 event put European marine heatwaves firmly in the public consciousness.
“However, our study shows that – in today’s climate – such events should not be unexpected.”
Co-author Professor Adam Scaife, of the University of Exeter and Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said: “This is another example of how steady climate warming is leading to an exponential increase in the occurrence of extreme events.”
The study used a large number of climate model simulations to assess the likelihood of heatwaves at the June 2023 level or above.
It focussed on two locations:
In the Celtic Sea – off the south coast of Ireland – the annual chance of such a heatwave rose from 3.8% in 1993 to 13.8% now.
In the central North Sea, the chance rose from 0.7% in 1993 to 9.8% now.
Previous research showed that the June 2023 marine heatwave also contributed to record-breaking temperatures and increased rainfall over the British Isles.
Explaining this, Dr Atkins said: “Warmer seas provide a source of heat off the coast, contributing to higher temperatures on land.
“Additionally, warmer air carries more moisture – and when that cools it leads to increased rainfall.”
The team say more research is now needed to investigate the impacts of marine heatwaves in European North-West shelf seas.
The paper, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, is entitled: “Recent European marine heatwaves are unprecedented but not unexpected.”
Recent European marine heatwaves are unprecedented but not unexpected
Article Publication Date
7-Oct-2025
Johns Hopkins researchers develop AI to predict risk of US car crashes
AI-based model can help traffic engineers to predict future sites of possible crashes.
Johns Hopkins University
In a significant step towards improving road safety, Johns Hopkins University researchers have developed an A.I.-based based tool that can identify the risk factors contributing to car crashes across the United States and to accurately predict future incidents.
The tool, called SafeTraffic Copilot, aims to provide experts with both crash analyses and crash predictions to reduce the rising number of fatalities and injuries that happen on U.S. roads each year.
The work, led by Johns Hopkins University researchers, is published inNature Communications.
“Car crashes in the U.S. continue to increase, despite decades of countermeasures, and these are complex events affected by numerous variables, like weather, traffic patterns, and driver behavior,” said senior author Hao (Frank) Yang, a professor of civil and systems engineering. “With SafeTraffic Copilot, our goal is to simplify this complexity and provide infrastructure designers and policymakers with data-based insights to mitigate crashes.”
The team uses a type of AI known as Large Language Models (LLMs) which are designed to process, understand, and learn from vast amounts of data. SafeTraffic Copilot was trained using text (i.e., descriptions of road conditions), numerical values (i.e., blood alcohol levels), satellite images and on-site photography. The team’s model also has the ability to evaluate both individual and combined risk factors, offering a more detailed understanding of how these elements interact to influence crashes.
By design, SafeTraffic Copilot incorporates a continuous learning loop so that prediction performance improves as more crash-related data is entered into the model, making it even more accurate over time. Even more importantly, by using LLMs, researchers can quantify the trustworthiness of the prediction—in other words, they can say a given prediction will be 70% accurate in a real-world scenario.
“By reframing crash prediction as a reasoning task and using LLMs to integrate written and visual data, the stakeholders can move from coarse, aggregate statistics, to a fine-tuned understanding of what causes specific crashes,” Yang said.
The model gives policymakers and transportation designers a trustworthy and interpretable tool to identify combinations of factors that elevate crash risk. The data can then be used to execute evidence-based interventions and more effective infrastructure planning to save lives and reduce injuries.
The researchers see the model as a copilot for human decision-making.
“Rather than replacing humans, LLMs should serve as copilots—processing information, identifying patterns, and quantifying risks—while humans remain the final decision-makers,” Yang said.
SafeTraffic Copilot has the potential to be a blueprint for responsibly integrating AI-based models into high-stakes fields, like public health and human safety. Because LLMs operate as large black-box models, users do not know how predictions are generated, deterring their use in high-risk decision-making scenarios.
The team plans to continue their research to better understand how AI models can be used responsibly in those settings.
“The central focus of our ongoing research is to find the best way to combine the strengths of humans and LLMs so that decisions in high-stakes domains are not only data-driven, but also transparent, accountable, and aligned with societal values,” he added.
Study authors include Hongru Du, assistant professor at the University of Virginia, and Johns Hopkins doctoral candidates Yang Zhao, Pu Wang, and Yibo Zhao.
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Journal
Nature Communications
Article Title
SafeTraffic Copilot: adapting large language models for trustworthy traffic safety assessments and decision interventions
Article Publication Date
7-Oct-2025
Hiring in high-growth firms: new study explores the timing of organizational changes
Researchers investigate how introduction of a new hierarchical layer in high-growth firms is connected with the timing of high-growth period
Researchers try to understand the timing of the introduction of a hierarchical layer in a high-growth organization. The result sits in-between the two established theories, one highlighting the pre-planning method, while the other states that the organizational change happens only when it is unavoidable.
Credit: Professor Alex Coad from Waseda University, Japan
High-growth firms (HGFs) refer to businesses that achieve rapid growth in terms of employees or revenue. Based on the established definition, HGFs are businesses with at least 10 employees and annual growth rates of 20% or more, observed over a period of three years. This three-year span is considered the high-growth (HG) period of the company. Even though this growth is often short-lived and difficult to sustain, it plays a significant role in driving economic dynamism. Hence, entrepreneurship-related research often focuses on the growth pattern of the HGFs and factors that affect the growth.
One such factor that affects the growth is the introduction of hierarchical layers. To shed light on the role of introducing hierarchical layers into HGFs, Professor Alex Coad from Waseda Business School, Waseda University, Japan, along with Dr. Antonio Martins-Neto, from the World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA, conducted a study based on the Brazilian employer–employee census micro-data for the period of 2003–2019. An article describing their research was published online in the journal Small Business Economics on September 11, 2025.
“There are two competing theories regarding the companies’ plans for the organizational infrastructure,” explains Prof. Coad. One theory talks about planning ahead, which highlights how firms plan ahead and invest proactively before the HG period. According to this theory, the companies invest in adding management layers in anticipation of growth. The other theory is called “dragging one’s feet.” This refers to the situation where firms put off adjusting their organizational structures for as long as possible. In these cases, the addition of a hierarchical layer often happens at the end of the HG period.
The researchers conducted a study which is entirely based on the Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (RAIS) database from 2003 to 2019. This comprehensive database is managed by the Brazilian Ministry of Labor and Employment and includes information on over 40 million individuals annually. The analysis was done based on 3,211,353 observations, and 2013 to 2016 was considered as the HG period (in the baseline analysis). The study followed the previously established classification of workers that included chief executive officers and managers, professionals, technicians, clerks and services, and production workers. Applying the difference-in-difference technique, the conditional correlations between firms’ growth and changes in their organizational structure were established based on the database to investigate the perfect “timing” for organizational restructuring.
“The findings of our study were interesting,” states Prof. Coad. “The results neither fit closely to the ‘planning ahead’ scenario, nor did they fit the ‘dragging one’s feet’ theory.” The addition of the new hierarchical layer occurred neither at the start nor at the end. However, as the firms started to expand, the HGFs started to add new knowledge hierarchies until the point at which they ceased to grow. This change happens smoothly and uniformly.
A notable distinction in hiring patterns was also observed between bigger and smaller firms. Smaller firms, with fewer than 50 employees, tend to add layers soon after growth begins, highlighting the influence of size on organizational decisions. As the firms grow in size, the share of managers decreases, suggesting that firms have low levels of managerial resources at the end of an HG period. The number again goes up later on.
“Planning ahead too much can be a risky strategy. But then again, delaying as much as possible also has drawbacks. It is better to take the middle road,” explains Prof. Coad, while talking about the implication of the study. The study can give the policymakers a direction regarding supporting the firms during their growth phase, instead of seeking a proactive role. This might lead to further growth and development of the HGFs in the near future.
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Reference Authors: Antonio Martins-Neto1, Alex Coad2 DOI: 10.1007/s11187-025-01098-z Affiliations: 1World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA 2Waseda Business School, Waseda University, Shinjuku, Japan
About Waseda University Located in the heart of Tokyo, Waseda University is a leading private research university that has long been dedicated to academic excellence, innovative research, and civic engagement at both the local and global levels since 1882. The University has produced many changemakers in its history, including eight prime ministers and many leaders in business, science and technology, literature, sports, and film. Waseda has strong collaborations with overseas research institutions and is committed to advancing cutting-edge research and developing leaders who can contribute to the resolution of complex, global social issues. The University has set a target of achieving a zero-carbon campus by 2032, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations in 2015. To learn more about Waseda University, visit https://www.waseda.jp/top/en
Credit: Professor Akihito Shimazu from Keio University, Japan
Work engagement is a positive and persistent state of mind related to one’s work. It is characterized by high energy and mental resilience (vigor), enthusiasm and involvement (dedication), and complete concentration in the task at hand (absorption). Engaged workers are not merely more productive; they are more likely to be proactive, creative, and less susceptible to burnout. Most importantly, work engagement has been consistently linked to many health benefits and overall well-being.
Despite its relevance for both organizations and workers alike, there aren’t many scientifically proven strategies for improving work engagement. Simple methods—ones that can be easily adopted in daily life—are virtually nonexistent. For countries like Japan, where long working hours and work-related mental health issues are common, there is a pressing need to develop tools to help employees feel positive about their job.
Against this backdrop, a research team led by Professor Akihito Shimazu from Keio University, Japan, developed a practical solution. In their latest paper, published in the Volume 13 of the journal JMIR mHealth and uHealth, on September 25, 2025, the team presents a new app called WEDiary, a smartphone-based diary that promotes positive reflections in daily working life on work engagement. The study was authored by Mr. Masahito Tokita and co-authored by Professor Akihito Shimazu, Mr. Shuichiro Kobayashi, and Mr. Daisuke Miyanaka from Keio University; Mr. Nobuyuki Takate and Mr. Hiroyuki Nakano from Japan Productivity Center; and Mr. Kazuki Takeuchi from Labor Trust LCC.
To test their app, the team conducted a randomized controlled trial involving 600 Japanese workers, who were split evenly between an intervention group and a control group. Participants in the intervention group used WEDiary for 2 weeks. They had to set a weekly goal at the beginning of each week and fill in their work achievements at the end of each day. The app specifically prompted them to type in their successes rather than any shortcomings, promoting positive reflection. “Through consistent engagement with this reflective practice, we expected participants to cultivate and accumulate positive emotions over time,” explains Mr. Tokita, “The transient experience of isolated positive emotions alone is insufficient for resource building toward work engagement. Instead, sustained accumulation of such emotions is essential, which is the goal of WEDiary.”
Through follow-up surveys, the team evaluated the effectiveness of their approach, obtaining very promising results. “Our app significantly improved employees’ work engagement in terms of vigor and dedication. Notably, these improvements were observed after just 2 weeks of intervention and persisted for 3 weeks post-intervention,” highlights Mr. Tokita. These findings showcase the potential of a simple, self-guided tool to effectively support workers’ psychological well-being by fostering work engagement.
A key advantage of WEDiary is its ease of use and adoption. It can be seamlessly incorporated into corporate wellness programs as a tool for mental health support. Similarly, it may be equally effective in remote and flexible working contexts, supporting self-management and engagement outside of traditional office settings. “Given its low cost and scalability, WEDiary could benefit a wide range of organizations, including small- and medium-sized enterprises and the public sector,” concludes Prof. Shimazu, “Ultimately, it addresses pressing challenges in Japanese society, such as long working hours and mental health issues, while fostering sustainable engagement in the workplace.”
Further innovations in tools that increase work engagement will hopefully pave the way for a healthier society.
About Keio University Global Research Institute (KGRI), Japan The Keio University Global Research Institute (KGRI) was established in November 2016 as a research organization to bridge faculties and graduate schools across the university. KGRI aims to promote interdisciplinary and international collaborative research that goes beyond the boundaries of singular academic disciplines and international borders. It also aims to share research outcomes both in Japan and worldwide, further promoting engagement in joint research. To enhance those activities above, in 2022, Keio University set its goal of becoming a “Research university that forges the common sense of the future”.
About Professor Akihito Shimazufrom Keio University Akihito Shimazu is Professor of the Faculty of Policy Management at Keio University. He is qualified as a clinical psychologist and a national licensed psychologist in Japan. His research concerns workplace psychosocial factors and mental health. He has published 11 edited books and over 300 papers/book chapters.
About Senior Researcher Masahito Tokita from Keio University SFC Masahito Tokita is a Senior Researcher at Keio University SFC (Keio Research Institute at SFC: KRIS). He is a national licensed nurse and a national licensed mental health social worker in Japan. His research concerns workers’ well-being and mental health.
Funding information This research was funded by a grant from the Japan Productivity Center.
Effects of a Smartphone-Based Positive Reflection Diary on Work Engagement Among Japanese Workers: A Randomized Controlled Trial
COI Statement
The authors declare that this research was funded by a grant from the Japan Productivity Center, to which the co-authors NT and HN belong, which could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. Co-author DM manages Better Options, Inc., which did not fund this research. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
