Thursday, February 05, 2026

MOSCOW BLOG: Nuclear arms race is already underway

MOSCOW BLOG: Nuclear arms race is already underway
The last of the Cold War-era missile security deals has expired opening the way for a new arms race, but actually a new race is already well underway. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin February 5, 2026

The New START treaty expired last night. It is the last of the Cold War-era missile agreements and marks the death of what security infrastructure was left to prevent the total annihilation of the planet.

There was a reason this infrastructure was put in place. Without it the natural urge is to get into an arms race. The logic of the security infrastructure is that of “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) – i.e. you only need enough missiles to make sure that the other guy will also be completely destroyed if he fires at you first.

Without the infrastructure the temptation is to get a bigger and better missile than the other guy (or just more of them) so that you have an advantage. As both the US and Russia already have over 5,000 missiles each that is already complete overkill in the MAD set up. (China is a relatively new player in this game and has around 600.) You only need 100 missiles to get through the defence to completely collapse a society. And as air defences are not airtight, the military boffins estimate current defences can only stop between 50-70% of inbound missiles. So, we can already blow the world up at least 15-times over.

In other words, slashing the stockpiles will make no practical difference to your ability to destroy the other guy – hence the alphabet soup of missile deals. Why waste all that money and resources on building and maintaining extra missiles if they make no difference to the end result at all? This was the Cold War logic and clearly a very sensible one.

One of the conditions to the New START was to limit stockpiles of missiles to 1,500. If you assume that only 30% of your missiles get through, then that is still 450 missiles – four-times more than you need for MAD to work.

But all this infrastructure has been dismantled now and actually a new arms race is not just a potential problem. A new arms race is already well underway.

This all goes back to 2002 when former President George W Bush unilaterally withdrew from the ABM treaty (Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty), the granddaddy of missile deals that was signed in 1972 between Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev, starting the whole security thing off.

This was an insane and totally unnecessary decision, and the Kremlin freaked out. (I know some people that were involved in the discussion at the time.) This was only a year after Bush met Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in Ljubljana, Slovenia, and “saw his soul” in his eyes.

Withdrawing from the ABM fundamentally and irreversibly destabilised the international balance of power. It sets off a series of events that leads, in my opinion, directly to the war in Ukraine. It’s one of the reasons that Putin is so obsessed with Nato expansion. After the ABM, one by one all the remaining deals were cancelled or allowed to expire. New START is the last one.

Given the writing has been on the wall for more than two decades, it is no wonder that Russia (and now increasingly China) has been investing heavily into weapons tech.

Those biblical words are doubly poignant today. They appeared on the wall of King Belshazzar’s feast: “Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin” which means: “God has numbered the days of your kingdom and brought it to an end. You have been weighed on the scales and found wanting. Your kingdom is divided and given to the Medes and Persians.” Belshazzar was killed the same night.

And having kicked the race off by withdrawing from the ABM, surprisingly the US has been napping ever since. Russian and Chinese missile technology has come on by leaps and bounds since then. Putin showcased new Russian hypersonic missiles during his 2018 state of the nation speech including an ominous video of them flying over the US. More recently Russia released the Oreshnik cruise missile that can hit any city in Europe. The Kinzhal and Zircon, both of which have been used in Ukraine, are too fast to stop (although there are reports of some Kinzhals being brought down by air defence but not the Zircon). The “unstoppable” nuclear powered Poseidon torpedo can circumnavigate the world undetected as it travels so deep. The US doesn’t have anything like this in its arsenal.

It’s the same in critical minerals: there is a very famous Department of Energy report published in 2010 warning that the US had fallen way behind China in the production of critical minerals and rare earth metals (REMs) that China had already, even then, and absolutely nothing was done to address the problem. Ironically, it is one of the (few) things that Trump is doing right, his minerals diplomacy.

The Chinese and Russian are in a race to increase the speeds of their missiles which are already up to a reported Mach 27 (Avangard) in Russia’s case and Mach 25 (DF-41) in China’s case. This is so fast that these missiles can fly from a home base and penetrate the US air defences in under 30mins.

Amazingly, the US doesn’t have any hypersonic missiles at all. It has the “Dark Eagle”, but that is still in development testing and also only has a top speed of Mach 5+. Europe’s hypersonic missiles are still theoretical blueprints.

As our military analyst Patricia Marins recently pointed out the same is true with bells on with the US navy and in naval missiles and Europe is essentially defenceless against a Russian missile attack. Russia has already remilitarised and its entire economy is now on a war footing. China is doing the same thing, and it is knocking out new state of the art high tech weapons every year. China and Russia are developing next-generation combat aircraft. China’s reported J-36 programme appears more advanced than Russia’s Su-57, while the US remains the global leader through its NGAD programme and the troubled F-35 for the moment.

The irony is that despite the US starting this pointless arms race, the Kremlin has made it crystal clear time and time again that it doesn’t want to go there and Putin is desperately keen to restart all these Cold War agreements. He leapt on Biden when the former president offered to renew START in 2021 and the Kremlin immediately offered to open talks on putting the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INS Treaty), which Trump nixed in 2019, back in place. Ironically, Biden was also a strong advocate of renewing the Cold War deals and vehemently criticised the decision to nix the ABM treaty, which he warned would be “deeply destabilising” to the international order.

Putin’s desire to renew the missile security infrastructure represents real leverage over the Kremlin in the current peace talks as he would be willing to give up a lot to get these deals done, in my opinion. But the issue has barely been mentioned. In the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement this morning they threatened a new arms race, but even now at this late stage, held the door open for new arms control talks. However, the MFA also said that they had no response from the White House on their offer to negotiate and that “no message is a message in itself.”

This article originally appeared in Editor’s Picks, a free daily email digest of bne IntelliNews’ best stories from the last 24 hours. Sign up for free here.

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START’s Expiration: A Threat to Humanitarian Disarmament

When major powers abandon restraint in the nuclear field, they send a dangerous message: that international commitments are optional, norms are negotiable, and humanitarian principles can be sidelined.


“The World Is No Place For Nuclear Weapons” was projected onto the side of Queen Elizabeth House, the new flagship UK Government Hub, in Edinburgh, to celebrate that the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons enters into force as international law on January 22, 2021.
(Photo by Jane Barlow/PA Images via Getty Images)


Dr. Ghassan Shahrour
Feb 05, 2026
Common Dreams


In January 2026, I published an article warning that the world was approaching the final hours of the New START Treaty. On February 5, 2026, that warning has become reality. For the first time since the early 1970s, no legally binding limits exist on US-Russian strategic nuclear forces. This moment is not only a failure of arms control; it is a profound threat to human security, humanitarian disarmament, and the credibility of multilateral commitments across all fields.

New START was the last surviving pillar of bilateral nuclear restraint. Its expiration removes the ceilings on deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems, eliminates inspections and data exchanges, and forces both sides to operate in an environment of opacity and worst‑case assumptions. In my earlier article, I argued that this collapse would deepen the crisis of credibility facing the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty (NPT), especially the long‑neglected obligations under Article VI. That analysis stands even more firmly today. A world without New START is a world where the NPT’s disarmament pillar is no longer eroding slowly—it is cracking openly.

But the consequences extend far beyond the nuclear domain. The end of New START is a blow to humanitarian disarmament as a whole. Treaties such as the Mine Ban Treaty (MBT) and the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CMC) were built on the belief that international law can restrain the most harmful weapons and protect civilians. When major powers abandon restraint in the nuclear field, they send a dangerous message: that international commitments are optional, norms are negotiable, and humanitarian principles can be sidelined when politically inconvenient.

This erosion of respect for international commitments is not isolated. It is part of a wider pattern visible in multiple conflicts, where the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, attacks on medical facilities, and disregard for civilian protection have become disturbingly normalized. The collapse of New START reinforces this trend by weakening the broader culture of compliance that humanitarian disarmament depends on.

Strengthening humanitarian disarmament—from nuclear weapons to landmines, cluster munitions, and all weapons that devastate civilian life—is now an urgent moral responsibility.

The humanitarian and medical consequences of this moment cannot be overstated. Nuclear weapons are not abstract strategic tools; they are instruments of mass suffering. Their use—even once—would overwhelm health systems, destroy infrastructure, contaminate environments, and inflict irreversible harm on generations. The expiration of New START increases the likelihood of miscalculation, escalation, and arms racing at a time when global humanitarian systems are already stretched beyond capacity.

This is why the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has gained renewed relevance. Its humanitarian logic—grounded in the lived experiences of survivors and the realities of medical response—offers a principled alternative to the paralysis of traditional arms control. As nuclear‑armed states retreat from their obligations, the TPNW stands as a reminder that disarmament is not only a legal duty but a moral imperative.

Today’s moment demands more than observation. It requires action.

Governments must restore restraint and rebuild trust in multilateral commitments.

Civil society must raise its voice with renewed urgency.

Humanitarian and medical organizations must continue to highlight the human cost of nuclear policies.

And the media must stop treating nuclear risks as distant or technical; they are immediate threats to human life and dignity.

The expiration of New START is not the end of arms control—but it is a warning. A warning that the international system is drifting toward a world where the most destructive weapons are unconstrained, humanitarian norms are weakened, and global commitments lose their meaning.

Strengthening humanitarian disarmament—from nuclear weapons to landmines, cluster munitions, and all weapons that devastate civilian life—is now an urgent moral responsibility, more than ever.


Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.


Dr. Ghassan Shahrour
Dr. Ghassan Shahrour, coordinator of Arab Human Security Network, is a medical doctor, prolific writer, and human rights advocate specializing in health, disability, disarmament, and human security. He has contributed to global campaigns for peace, disarmament, and the rights of persons with disabilities.
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Rubio Confirms End of New START, Sparking Calls for Nuclear Talks With Russia, China

“Trump, Putin, and Xi can and must put the world on a safer path by taking commonsense actions to build down the nuclear danger,” said one campaigner.


US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a press conference at the Sate Department in Washington, DC, on February 4, 2026.
(Photo by Oliver Contreras/AFP via Getty Images)


Brett Wilkins
Feb 04, 2026
COMMON DREAMS


Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday implicitly confirmed that New START—a key arms control treaty between the United States and Russia—will expire Thursday, prompting renewed demands for what one group called “a more coherent approach from the Trump administration” toward nuclear nonproliferation.

Asked about the impending expiration of New START during a Wednesday press conference, Rubio said he didn’t “have any announcement” on the matter, and that President Donald Trump “will opine on it later.”


“Obviously, the president’s been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” Rubio said.



New START, signed in 2010, committed the United States and Russia to halving the number of strategic nuclear missile launchers in their arsenals. While the treaty did not limit the size of the countries’ actual nuclear arsenals, proponents pointed to its robust verification regime and other transparency features as mutually beneficial highlights of the agreement.

“We have known that New START would end for 15 years, but no one has shown the necessary leadership to be prepared for its expiration,” said John Erath, senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and former longtime State Department official.

“The treaty limited the number of nuclear weapons the United States and Russia could have, but perhaps more importantly, New START also provided each country with unprecedented insights into the other’s arsenal so that Washington and Moscow could make decisions based on real information rather than speculation,” Erath added.



Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said Wednesday that “the end of New START requires a more coherent approach from the Trump administration.”

“If President Trump and Secretary Rubio are serious, they should make a serious proposal for bilateral (not trilateral) talks with Beijing,” he asserted. “Despite Trump’s talk about involving China in nuclear negotiations, there is no indication that Trump or his team have taken the time to propose risk reduction or arms control talks with China since returning to office in 2025.”

Kimball continued:
Furthermore, there is no reason why the United States and Russia should not and cannot continue, as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin suggested on September 22, to respect the central limits of New START and begin the hard work of negotiating a new framework agreement involving verifiable limits on strategic, intermediate-range, and short-range nuclear weapons, as well as strategic missile defenses.

At the same time, if he is serious about involving China in “denuclearization” talks, he could and should invite [Chinese President Xi Jinping] when they meet later this year, to agree to regular bilateral talks on risk reduction and arms control involving senior Chinese and US officials.

“With the end of New START, Trump, Putin, and Xi can and must put the world on a safer path by taking commonsense actions to build down the nuclear danger,” Kimball added.

Erath lamented that “with New START’s expiration, we have not only lost unprecedented verification measures that our military and decision-makers depended on, but we have ended more than five decades of painstaking diplomacy that successfully avoided nuclear catastrophe.”

“Agreements preceding New START helped reduce the global nuclear arsenal by more than 80% since the height of the Cold War,”
he noted. “Now, both Russia and the United States have no legal obstacle to building their arsenals back up, and we could find ourselves reliving the Cold War.”

Last week, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board advanced its symbolic Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to global thermonuclear annihilation, citing developments including failure to extend New START, China’s growing arsenal, and Russian weapons tests—to which Trump has vowed to respond in kind.

“The good news is,” said Erath, is that “the end of New START does not have to mean the end of nuclear arms control.”

“While New START can’t be extended beyond today, Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin could decide to respect the numerical limits the treaty set on nuclear arsenals,” he explained. “They could also resume the treaty’s data exchanges and on-site inspections, in addition to implementing verification measures from other previous arms control treaties.”

“Further, they could instruct their administrations to begin immediate talks on a new treaty to cover existing and novel systems and potentially bring in other nuclear powers, like China,” Erath continued. “Meanwhile, Congress could—and should—fund nonproliferation and global monitoring efforts while refusing to fund dangerous new nuclear weapons systems.”

Last December, US Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), John Garamendi (D-Calif.), and Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) reintroduced the bicameral Hastening Arms Limitation Talks (HALT) Act, “legislation outlining a vision for a 21st century freeze on the testing, production, and deployment of nuclear weapons.”



“The Doomsday Clock is at 85 seconds to midnight,” Markey—who co-chairs the congressional Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group—said Wednesday ahead of a press conference with HALT Act co-sponsors. “We need to replace New START now.”


‘Era of Unconstrained Nuclear Competition’ Looms With US-Russia New START Treaty Expiring

“The United States and Russia already have enough deployed nuclear weapons to kill tens of millions of people in an hour and devastate the world,” said one expert, warning a lapse will “only make the world less safe.”


A woman walks past a wall poster that warns of the impending expiration of New START, a US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, on January 30, 2026 in Washington, DC.
(Photo by Probal Rashid/LightRocket via Getty Images)


Jessica Corbett
Feb 03, 2026
COMMON DREAMS

If New START expires on Thursday, it will be the first time in decades that the United States and Russia don’t have a nuclear arms control treaty, and experts have been sounding the alarm about the arms race that likely lies ahead.

“The expiration of New START would be massively destabilizing and potentially very costly both in terms of economics and security,” said Jennifer Knox, a research and policy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists’ (UCS) Global Security Program, in a Tuesday statement.




‘85 Seconds to Midnight’: Doomsday Clock Ticks Down as Trump Drags World Toward New Low

“The United States and Russia already have enough deployed nuclear weapons to kill tens of millions of people in an hour and devastate the world,” Knox pointed out. “Letting New START lapse would erase decades of hard-won progress and only make the world less safe.”

New START was signed in April 2010, under the Obama administration, and entered into force the following February. A decade later, just days into the Biden administration, it was renewed for five years. In 2022, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine—an ongoing conflict—and the next year, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended his country’s participation in the treaty, though he has not withdrawn.

“The global security environment facing the United States is very different from when New START was first negotiated, but it remains true that bounding an open-ended, costly arms race will still require some form of agreement between Washington and Moscow,” said Ankit Panda, the Stanton senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program, in a statement.

“The public and lawmakers alike must recognize that we are on the cusp of a fundamentally new nuclear age—one that is more unpredictable, complex, and dangerous than anything we’ve witnessed post-Cold War,” warned Panda, one of the experts participating in a Wednesday briefing about the treaty. “A big risk is that without any quantitative limits or hands-on verification, we’ll end up with compounding worst-case-scenario thinking in both capitals, as during the Cold War.”

While Putin has halted US inspections of Russian nuclear facilities, he has still proposed extending the treaty for a year. Tara Drozdenko, director of the UCS Global Security Program, said that “abiding by New START for another year would be a win-win-win for the United States, Russia, and the rest of the world... The Trump administration should take swift action to publicly acknowledge that the United States will continue to abide by New START in the interim.”



However, US President Donald Trump—who fancies himself as a deal-maker—hasn’t expressed an interest in fighting for the pact, telling the New York Times last month that “if it expires, it expires,” and “I’d rather do a new agreement that’s much better.”

Trump has called for China—which has the most nuclear weapons after Russia and the United States, and is building up its arsenal—to be part of a new deal, but Beijing hasn’t signaled it will do so. Putin has proposed participation from France and the United Kingdom. The other nuclear-armed nations are India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan.

Noting Trump’s comments to the Times and aspiration for the Chinese government to join, Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the think tank Defense Priorities, declared that “this is wishful thinking–if the administration thinks getting a new ‘better’ treaty after this one lapses will be easy, they are mistaken.”

“New START’s end brings few benefits and lots of risks to the United States, especially as Washington tries to stabilize relations with rivals like Russia and China,” she said, suggesting that Trump “would be better off hanging on to the agreement he has a little longer before trying to get a better one.”



Dmitry Medvedev, a Putin ally who signed the treaty while serving as president and is now deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, said in a Monday interview with Reuters, TASS, and the WarGonzo project that “our proposal remains on the table, the treaty has not yet expired, and if the Americans want to extend it, that can be done.”

“For almost 60 years, we haven’t had a situation where strategic nuclear potentials weren’t limited in some way. Now such a situation is possible,” he noted. “I spent almost my entire life, starting from 1972, under the umbrella of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty.”

“In some ways, even with all the costs, it is still an element of trust,” Medvedev said. “When such a treaty exists, there is trust. When it doesn’t, that trust is exhausted. The fact that we are now in this situation is clear evidence of a crisis in international relations. This is absolutely obvious.”

Considering New START’s potential expiration this week, the Russian leader said that “I don’t want to say that this immediately means a catastrophe and a nuclear war, but it should still alert everyone. The clock that is ticking will, in this case, undoubtedly accelerate again.”

According to Reuters, he was referencing the Doomsday Clock. Last week, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board set the symbolic clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to global catastrophe, citing various developments, including a failure to extend the treaty, Russian weapons tests, and China’s growing arsenal.




“In 2025, it was almost impossible to identify a nuclear issue that got better,” Jon B. Wolfsthal, a board member and director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), said last week. “More states are relying more intently on nuclear weapons, multiple states are openly talking about using nuclear weapons for not only deterrence but for coercion. Hundreds of billions are being spent to modernize and expand nuclear arsenals all over the world, and more and more non-nuclear states are considering whether they should acquire their own nuclear weapons or are hedging their nuclear bets.”

“Instead of stoking the fires of the nuclear arms competition, nuclear states are reducing their own security and putting the entire planet at risk. Leaders of all states must relearn the lessons of the Cold War—no one wins a nuclear arms race, and the only way to reduce nuclear dangers is through binding agreement to limit the size and shape of their nuclear arsenals,” he argued. “Nuclear states and their partners need to invest now in proven crisis communication and risk reduction tools, recommit to preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, refrain from nuclear threats, and pursue a more predictable and stable global security system.”

Regarding New START specifically, FAS Nuclear Information Project associate director Matt Korda stressed this week that “we are about to enter an era of unconstrained nuclear competition without any guardrails. Not only will there no longer be anything stopping the nuclear superpowers from nearly doubling their deployed nuclear arsenals, but they would now be doing so in an environment of mutual distrust, opacity, and worst-case thinking.”

“While New START was a bilateral agreement between Russia and the United States, its expiration will have far-reaching consequences for the world,” he said. “There are no benefits from a costly arms buildup that brings us right back to where we started, but there would be real advantages in pursuing transparency and predictability in an otherwise unpredictable world.”


Who Has Nearly 90% Of The World's Nuclear Weapons?

IT'S A DUOPOLY

Jonathan H. Kantor
Tue, February 3, 2026 
SLASHGEAR


A mushroom cloud from a hydrogen bomb test - Alones/Shutterstock


Several military technological innovations have changed the course of history. From the sailing ship to the stirrup, these advances have pushed the world into new directions, and chief among them is nuclear weapons. The first nukes were some of the most notorious weapons developed during World War II, used in the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. After the war, nuclear weapons became the tentpole of military and foreign policy, and other nations have followed the U.S. in developing their own arsenals.

As of writing, there are nine countries with nuclear weapons: Russia, China, the United Kingdom, India, North Korea, France, Pakistan, Israel, and the U.S. It should be noted that Israel has never confirmed whether it has nuclear weapons, despite most international agencies believing that it does. Additionally, Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Regardless, there are numerous nations with weapons of all kinds, and together, these account for more than 12,300 warheads, 9,600 of which remain in active military stockpiles.

While that's a lot of nukes, just two countries collectively hold 86.8% of the world's nuclear weapons, with the remaining split between the other seven. Those two nations are the U.S. and Russia, the latter of which has more than the former. These stockpiles represent the legacy of the U.S. policy of Mutually Assured Destruction, which ensured that both the U.S. and the former Soviet Union maintained enough firepower to wipe out the other should either deploy a nuclear weapon in combat.

America's nuclear weapons stockpile


Three nuclear missiles launched over a backdrop of the American Flag. - Dancingman/Getty Images

While the Cold War ended decades ago, the United States still maintains a large stockpile of nuclear weapons. This is in line with the U.S.' nuclear triad, which is a policy requiring three nuclear deployment methods at all times: submarine-launched ballistic missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and aircraft-dropped nuclear weapons. While the stockpile has decreased significantly since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. maintains 5,177 warheads, according to the Federation of Atomic Scientists' 2025 Status of the World's Nuclear Forces report.

The weapons are broken down into three categories. Deployed warheads are those on ballistic missiles and those at bomber bases, and the U.S. has 1,670 of these. It has 1,930 stockpiled warheads, which are available for use when needed. Finally, there are the retired nuclear warheads, accounting for 1,477 of America's total. These are weapons that aren't intended for use, but have yet to be dismantled. This leaves the U.S. with a total of 3,700 usable nuclear warheads.

The U.S. continues to develop nuclear weapons technology, though testing is heavily restricted via numerous treaties. Several defense contractors and government agencies manufacture the nation's nuclear missiles and their warheads, with modernization efforts carried out at multiple facilities in Texas and Tennessee. These ensure that the nation's nuclear capabilities are spread out and maintained in a constant state of readiness should the need arise.

Russia's nuclear arsenal


Missiles preparing to fire over a backdrop of a nuclear detonation, the Russian flag, and a nuclear symbol - Bymuratdeniz/Getty Images

When it comes to nuclear warheads, Russia and the former Soviet Union reign supreme. The Soviet Union developed and tested the largest nuclear weapon ever tested, the Tsar Bomba, which detonated at an estimated 50 megatons. Of course, that's only one of many, and when the U.S.S.R. collapsed, its constituent nations retained some weapons. Ukraine briefly held the third-largest stockpile before denuclearization, and other nations followed suit. These days, Russia has a stockpile of 5,459 total warheads, according to the FAS' 2025 report.

Russia's weapons break down to 1,780 deployed warheads, 2,591 stockpiled, and 1,150 retired, leaving a usable total of 4,309. As a result, Russia maintains 609 nuclear warheads more than the United States, but the difference means little when you're talking about weapons capable of total annihilation of the world in a nuclear war. Like the U.S., Russia maintains its weapons for use in numerous ways, as the nation has nuclear-armed submarines, strategic nuclear bombers, and ICBMs ready to go should the unfortunate need arise.

While Russia and the United States have a lot of nukes, accounting for almost 90% of the total world stockpile, they're nowhere near the numbers of the past: There were an estimated 70,374 nuclear warheads worldwide in 1986. It took a long time to dismantle and draw down from that amount, and treaties continue to push nations to reduce their total number of deployable weapons. Unfortunately, neither the U.S. nor Russia is a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Agriculture Experts Warn of ‘Widespread Collapse’ in US Farms Thanks to Trump Policies

“These disruptions are... financially squeezing food and agriculture businesses and sowing the seeds of division in rural communities.”



Glenn Morris, 83, harvests corn on October 11, 2021 in Princeton, Indiana.
(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)


Brad Reed
Feb 04, 2026
COMMON DREAMS


A large group of agriculture experts warned that US farms are taking a financial beating thanks to President Donald Trump’s global trade war.

In a letter sent to the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees on Tuesday, the experts warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture and our rural communities” caused in no small part by Trump administration policies.

The letter’s signatories—which include former leaders of American agricultural commodity and biofuels associations, farm leaders, and former USDA officials—pointed to Trump’s tariffs on imported goods and his mass deportation policies as particularly harmful.

“It is clear that the current administration’s actions, along with congressional inaction,” the letter states, “have increased costs for farm inputs, disrupted overseas and domestic markets, denied agriculture its reliable labor pool, and defunded critical [agricultural] research and staffing.”

The letter goes on to describe Trump’s tariffs as “indiscriminate and haphazard,” noting they “have not revitalized American manufacturing and have significantly damaged American farm economy.”

The tariffs have also hurt farmers’ access to overseas markets, the letter continues, as foreign nations have reacted with retaliatory tariffs.

“Consider the impact of the China trade war on soybeans alone,” the letter says. “In 2018, when the China tariffs were initially imposed, whole US soybean exports represented 47% of the world market. Today, whole US soybeans represent just 24.4%—a 50% reduction in market share. Meanwhile, Brazil’s share of the world export market grew by more than 20%.”

When it comes to the administration’s immigration policies, the letter says that “mass deportations, removal of protected status, and failure to reform the H-2A visa program is wreaking havoc with dairy, fruit and produce, and meat processing.”

“Those disruptions are causing food to go to waste and driving up food costs for consumers,” the letter adds. “These disruptions are also financially squeezing food and agriculture businesses and sowing the seeds of division in rural communities. Farmers need these workers.”

The letter offers several policy proposals that the administration and Congress could take to help US farmers, including ending tariffs on farm inputs, repealing tariffs that have blocked access to overseas markets, passing reform to the H-2A visa program to help ensure farmers have sufficient workers, and extending trade agreements with Mexico and Canada for the next 16 years.

The letter also urges Congress to “convene meetings with farmers to discuss challenges that they are facing gather input on additional policy solutions and build momentum to address the farm crisis.”

One of the letter’s signatories, former National Corn Growers Association chief executive Jon Doggett, told the New York Times on Tuesday that he felt he had to speak out because “we’re not having those conversations” about the struggles facing US farmers “in an open and meaningful way.”

The agriculture experts who signed the letter aren’t alone in their concerns about US farmers’ financial condition, as Reuters reported that US Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), the chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said during a Tuesday conference call that he was aware that US farmers are “losing money, lots of money.”
Citing Threat of ‘Authoritarian Regime,’ Judge Orders ICE to Stop Tear-Gassing Protesters in Oregon

In “a well-functioning constitutional democratic republic,” said US District Judge Michael Simon, “free speech, courageous newsgathering, and nonviolent protest are all permitted, respected, and even celebrated.”


ILLEGAL USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS

Federal agents deploy pepper balls, tear gas, and flashbang grenades on hundreds of people who marched from Portland City Hall to a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility to protest against the agency’s actions in Portland, Oregon on February 1, 2026.
(Photo by Sean Bascom/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Julia Conley
Feb 04, 2026
COMMON DREAMS

Warning that President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigrant communities, protesters who speak out for civil and human rights, and journalists who are reporting on the president’s mass deportation campaign has placed the nation at a “crossroads,” a US judge on Tuesday temporarily barred federal agents from launching tear gas, projectiles, and other chemicals at demonstrators in Portland, Oregon.

US District Judge Michael Simon in the District of Oregon ruled that for at least the next 14 days—a period that could be extended—federal agents with the Department of Homeland Security or other agencies can no longer use chemical or projectile munitions like tear gas or pepper balls unless the specific target poses an imminent threat of physical harm to a law enforcement officer or someone else.

Officers are also prohibited from firing any munition at a person’s head, neck, or torso except in cases where deadly force would be justified, and from using a less lethal munition if doing so would endanger someone who doesn’t pose an imminent threat.

Simon emphasized that he arrived at the ruling in order to preserve the United States’ status as “a well-functioning constitutional democratic republic.”

In such a country, wrote Simon, free speech, courageous newsgathering, and nonviolent protest are all permitted, respected, and even celebrated.“

“In an authoritarian regime, that is not the case,” he continued. “Our nation is now at a crossroads. We have been here before and have previously returned to the right path, notwithstanding an occasional detour. In helping our nation find its constitutional compass, an impartial and independent judiciary operating under the rule of law has a responsibility that it may not shirk.”

The ruling pertains to the vicinity of the Portland Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Building, which has been at the center of protests against the agency’s arrests and detention of immigrants in the Portland area.

Simon handed down the ruling days after thousands of residents assembled near the building to speak out against Trump’s anti-immigration agenda, in which a majority of the people who have been detained in recent months have had no criminal records despite the president’s claims that ICE is targeting the “worst of the worst” violent offenders. DHS agents have shot at least 13 people since September, and have killed two—Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. An off-duty ICE agent also fatally shot Keith Porter in Los Angeles.

The protest on Saturday in Portland was nonviolent and family-friendly, with children and senior citizens among those who gathered to speak out against the killings, deportations, and detentions.

But ICE agents nonetheless deployed tear gas at the crowd. They did so again the next day when hundreds of protesters rallied at City Hall and marched to the ICE Building. DHS claimed the protesters “threw objects at law enforcement and rocks at cameras.” lreported that it had not verified those claims.





The ACLU, which filed a legal complaint to the judge Sunday night on behalf of protesters who had been affected by ICE’s use of tear gas, said Tuesday that “not only are DHS’s extreme actions violating protesters’ First Amendment rights, but they also pose an imminent risk that officers will seriously maim or kill someone, as they have done repeatedly within the last few weeks in other parts of the country.”

Kelly Simon, the legal director for ACLU of Oregon, said that “it has been inspiring to see Oregonians rising together with love, nonviolence, and creativity to oppose the Trump administration’s cruelty.”

“The Department of Homeland Security’s pattern of violently retaliating against protesters and documenters flies in the face of any notion of order, safety, or freedom,” she said. “This ruling affirms that, in Oregon, we still love our neighbors and believe in the power of our constitutional freedoms, including the freedoms of assembly, speech, and the press, to build a better future for all of us.”

In its filing, the ACLU described several alleged acts of violence and excessive force by federal agents against peaceful protesters and journalists, including the use of a chemical impact munition against an 84-year-old woman who was “peacefully holding a sign on a public street” when she was hit in the head. She walked home “soaked in blood” and was later diagnosed with a concussion at an emergency department.

A freelance journalist was also allegedly shot in the groin with projectile munitions and suffered bruises, and on another occasion was maced in the face by an officer.

Jack Dickinson, a protester who has been dubbed the Portland Chicken for the chicken costume he’s worn at anti-ICE demonstrations, said he was “grateful that Judge Simon agreed that cruelty is not an appropriate response to dissent.”

“Since June, the Trump regime has subjected people in Portland to chemical weapons and violence because they are offended by our words,” said Dickinson. “This administration should hear our grievances and halt their barbaric treatment of our communities. Until then, I hope Portland will continue to show up and exercise our First Amendment rights. Our voices are needed most in times like now.”

Federal agents’ use of tear gas and other chemicals also prompted a separate lawsuit recently, with a property management company joining a group of residents in an apartment building about 100 feet from the ICE building suing DHS because tear gas has clouded their homes for months—forcing some to sleep wearing gas masks.

One resident said she was also struck by rubber bullets that left her with welts and bruises.

Lawsuits challenging federal agents’ deployment of chemicals and munitions have also been filed in Minnesota and Chicago.

An evidentiary hearing is scheduled for March 2 in Simon’s courtroom regarding the question of whether the court should grant a preliminary injunction, further limiting the use of tear gas and other weapons against protesters and journalists.
Tennessee to test Stephen Miller’s plan of enlisting states for immigration enforcement

George Chidi
Wed, February 4, 2026 
THE GUARDIAN



Stephen Miller, deputy White House chief of staff for policy, speaks to members of the media outside the White House on 6 October 2025.Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images(Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images)More

The power to enforce immigration law rests with the federal government. But Trump adviser, Stephen Miller, has a vision for states working in coordination with federal immigration officials, and he’s attempting to test it out in Tennessee.

Earlier this month, the Knoxville News Sentinel reported that Miller had been meeting in Washington DC with Tennessee speaker of the house, Cameron Sexton, to craft model legislation for states around the country.

A few weeks later, the speaker announced a suite of eight bills that would turn state and local police officers, judges, teachers, social workers and others into an auxiliary extension of the federal immigration system. It makes the presence of an undocumented person with a final deportation order a state crime in Tennessee. And it mandates that officials report the presence of undocumented persons to ICE, while criminalizing disclosure of information about immigration enforcement activities to the public.

“The president’s behind us,” said Knoxville-area representative and deputy speaker, Jason Zachary, on a video taken from a talk with a conservative group, describing Sexton’s contact with Miller. “The president has promised his support on social media for us, and we are being told Tennessee will go first.”

Last year, Tennessee also established an immigration enforcement division under its department of safety and homeland security, and made the records collected by the chief immigration enforcement officer exempt from Tennessee’s already limited public records access laws. Confidentiality extends to records for grant programs administered by the department, preventing watchdogs from examining what local law enforcement agencies do with federal grant money for immigration enforcement.

Legislation filed on 15 January doesn’t just extend that confidentiality; it demands it. A state or local official, including judges, “negligently” releasing identifying information of officers involved in immigration enforcement would face a felony and removal from office.

Senate Bill 1464, criminalizing disclosure, appears to be aimed directly at Freddie O’Connell, the Nashville mayor who issued an executive order last year to track and publish ICE contacts in the city. O’Connell briefly published the names of some ICE agents as part of the effort.

“It’s really alarming,” said Lisa Sherman-Luna, executive director of the advocacy organization Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition. “We have folks in office who are really creating infrastructure for the secret police, with zero accountability, total impunity, legitimizing the way that ICE is behaving, wearing masks or civilian clothes, not identifying themselves, and giving these guys license to behave in whatever way they desire without an ability for the public to hold them accountable.”

But the most controversial and legally impactful proposal would require local school systems to verify lawful status for K-12 students. Those without legal residency would be charged tuition. Others could be denied enrollment.

The Tennessee state senate passed a version of this bill last year, but the state house paused movement while looking for guidance from Washington on how it might affect federal education funding.

The legislation directly challenges Plyler v Doe, a landmark 1982 US supreme court case that establishes a constitutional right for undocumented children to an education at public expense, setting up revisitation of the decision in the Roberts court.

“We’re not clear where the supreme court is going to land on certain issues,” Sherman-Luna said. “And the state legislature doesn’t care that things are unconstitutional. They’re betting on the supreme court ruling in their favor, and they’re trying to change the constitution through these kinds of laws.”

The day the speaker filed the legislative package – eight days after an ICE agent killed Renee Good and set off massive protests in Minneapolis – Sexton held a press conference in Nashville to describe the merits of his legislative proposals.

“Look at Minnesota,” Sexton said. “Is Minnesota holding those individuals accountable? Are they holding them accountable for blocking streets? No. You can’t block streets in Tennessee. You’re going to be held accountable or you’re going to go to jail. And Minnesota is just a wild, wild west. They allow people to do anything. It’s actually a detriment to law enforcement. They’re making it less safe to be a police officer or a federal agent in Minnesota.”

Sexton’s office has not responded to requests for comment.

One of the bills requires courts and local law enforcement to cooperate with ICE. This would presumably outlaw efforts by local prosecutors and police to arrest federal immigration agents for violating state law.

In a continuation of the state’s longstanding conflict with its more progressive cities such as Memphis and Nashville, the legislation would allow Tennessee’s attorney general to withhold state funds and shared sales tax revenue from non-compliant municipalities. Tennessee does not have a state income tax but relies on the second-highest sales tax rate in the country, making this a potent financial threat.

“DC does not want to fix the problem, and so here we are using a broken system,” said John Ray Clemmons, the state representative from Nashville and chair of the Democratic caucus in Tennessee. “And DC is trying to tell us how to target the people who are a result of that broken system, more or less.”

Clemmons questions the priorities of Republicans. “It’s lazy to ride the coattails of this administration on immigration, instead of actually addressing the problems people are facing, like ending the grocery tax, expanding access to healthcare, ensuring rural hospitals aren’t closing, fully funding public schools,” he said.

But Republican lawmakers rest much of their argument for the legislation on assertions that undocumented migrants cost Tennessee taxpayers millions.

“Rural communities like mine are paying the price for illegal immigration,” said Ken Yager, senate Republican caucus chairman, in a release. “It places a real strain on local resources and drains taxpayer dollars that should be reinvested right here at home to strengthen our communities.”

The proposed legislation requires monthly reporting about non-citizens receiving public benefits such as housing or medical services, and for those reports to be coordinated with the Department of Homeland Security. A “comprehensive report detailing the total cost of illegal immigration to Tennessee taxpayers, including schools, hospitals, prisons, and social services” would be published annually, according to an information sheet sent by legislative offices in January.

Bills in consideration would also require state and local governments to verify lawful status before issuing taxpayer-funded benefits. If someone’s immigration status cannot be verified, it requires the agency to refer the contact to ICE and Tennessee’s centralized immigration enforcement division.

One bill requires that state contractors use E-Verify, a federal internet-based system allowing employers to electronically confirm the employment eligibility of new hires. The proposed bills would require proof of lawful status for licensed professions, including teachers, nurses and contractors. It also requires driver’s license examinations to be conducted in English, with one-time exceptions, and restricts licenses for some non-citizens.

This model legislation carries the prospect of broad economic effects from state level immigration policies. Critically, the proposal would criminalize the use of a commercial driver’s license (CDL) by an operator without lawful immigration status. The Trump administration has attacked the issuance of CDLs in California, New York and other Democratic-controlled states to undocumented drivers. Transportation secretary, Sean Duffy, is withholding some federal funds and has threatened to block California from issuing CDLs to anyone over the state’s practices.

The legislation sets up the prospect of Tennessee state troopers checking the immigration status of out-of-state drivers passing through the state. As model legislation, a line of states from Indiana to Texas implementing the policy could create a deportation hazard for undocumented cross-country truckers.

Immigration activists are organizing in Tennessee to oppose restrictive state-level legislation, but are under resourced, Sherman-Luna said. The political focus on federal races and chaos in Washington DC draws money and attention from red state fights, she said.

















Terrible history shows what Trump's migrant 'camps' really are — and what comes next

Thom Hartmann
February 5, 2026 
COMMON DREAMS

As people testified before Congress on Tuesday about the brutality and violence they’d suffered at the hands of ICE, that massive paramilitary organization was shopping for giant warehouse-style facilities they can retrofit into what they euphemistically call “detention centers.”

Cable news people call them “prison camps” or “Trump prison camps,” but look in any dictionary: prisons are where people convicted of crimes are held. As Merriam-Webster notes, a prison is:
“[A]n institution for confinement of persons convicted of serious crimes.”

Jails are where people accused of crimes but still waiting for their day in court are held, as Merriam-Webster notes:

“[S]uch a place under the jurisdiction of a local government for the confinement of persons awaiting trial or those convicted of minor crimes.”

But what do you call a place where people who’ve committed no criminal offense (immigration violations are civil, not criminal, infractions)? The fine dictionary people at Merriam-Webster note the proper term is “concentration camp”:
“[A] place where large numbers of people (such as prisoners of war, political prisoners, refugees, or the members of an ethnic or religious minority) are detained or confined under armed guard.”

The British originated the term “concentration camp” to describe facilities where “rebel” or “undesirable” civilians were held in South Africa during the Second Anglo‑Boer War (1899–1902) to control and punish a rebellious population.

They were facilities where the “bad elements of society” were “concentrated” into one location so they could be easily controlled and would lose access to society and thus could not spread their messages of resistance against the British Empire.

The Germans adopted the term in 1933 when Hitler took power and created his first camp for communists, socialists, union leaders, and, by the end of the year, Hitler’s political opponents. They Germanized the phrase into “Konzentrationslager” and referred to the process of their incarceration as “protective custody.”

The first camp was built at Dachau just weeks after Hitler became Chancellor in 1933, and by the end of the year there were around 70 of them operating across the country.

When Louise and I lived in Germany in 1986-87, we visited Dachau with our three children. The crematoriums shocked our kids, but even more so because this was simply a “detention facility” and not one of Hitler’s death camps (which were all located outside Germany to ensure deniability).

The ovens at Dachau were for those who had been worked to death or killed by cholera or other disease, much like the 35+ people who’ve recently died in ICE’s concentration camps.

When American friends would visit us and we’d take them to Dachau (we lived just an hour up the road) they’d invariably be surprised when I told them that by the time of the war there were over 500 substantial camps and an additional few hundred very small ones all over the country.

“How could the people not know what was going on?” they’d ask.

The answer was simple: the people did know. These were where the “undesirables,” the “criminal troublemakers,” and the “aliens” were held, and were broadly supported by the German people. (It wasn’t until 1938, following Kristallnacht, that the Nazis began systematically arresting and imprisoning non-political Jews, first at Buchenwald, and Sachsenhausen.)

By the end of his first year, Hitler had around 50,000 people held in his roughly 70 concentration camps, facilities that were often improvised in factories, prisons, castles, and other buildings.

By comparison, today ICE is holding over 70,000 people in 225 concentration camps across America, and Trump, Homan, Miller, and Noem hope to more than double both numbers in the coming months.

In Tennessee, the Guardian reports that Miller has been coordinating with Republican leaders to create legislation that would turn every local cop, teacher, social worker, and helper in the state into an official agent of ICE and criminalize efforts by cities to refuse cooperation. It also makes it a felony crime to identify any of ICE’s masked agents or disclose conditions within the concentration camps to the public.

Germans didn’t have the benefit of warnings from a fascist history they could look back on; much of what Hitler did took them by surprise, as I’ve noted in previous articles.

In 2026 America, however, operating with the benefit of historical hindsight, entire communities are rebelling at Trump’s effort to beat Germany’s 1933-1934 prisoner numbers.

In city after city, Americans are organizing to deprive ICE of their coveted spaces, putting pressure on companies not to sell and on cities and counties not to permit any more concentration camps.

Because immigration violations are labeled “civil,” people in ICE concentration camps are stripped of many of the normal constitutional protections that apply to people in criminal incarceration. This has created a legal black hole that ICE and the Trump regime exploit, where indefinite imprisonment, abuse, and medical neglect flourish with little to no oversight or accountability.

Human rights organizations like the ACLU describe pervasive patterns of abuse in ICE detention: hazardous living conditions, chronic medical neglect, sexual assault, retaliation for grievances, and extensive use of solitary confinement.

Detainees who have committed no crime other than being in the United States without documentation report being shackled for long periods, packed into freezing, overcrowded cells under constant fluorescent light, and denied hygiene and timely care. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned private prison companies are making billions off the program.

Inspections and oversight are inconsistent: one recent investigation found that as detentions and deaths surged in 2025, formal inspections of facilities actually dropped by over a third. ICE regularly refuses to allow attorneys, family members, and even members of Congress to access their concentration camps; the issue is now being litigated through federal courts.

History shows us that once a nation builds a mass detention apparatus, it never remains limited to its original targets. Future generations of Americans — our children and grandchildren — won’t ask us whether ICE followed civil detention statutes: they’ll want to know why we allowed concentration camps to exist in America at all.

Germany’s concentration camps didn’t start as instruments of mass murder, and neither have ours; both started as facilities for people the government’s leader said were a problem. And that’s exactly what ICE is building now.

History isn’t whispering its warning: it’s shouting.

Thom Hartmann is a New York Times best-selling author and SiriusXM talk show host. His Substack can be found here.