By Michael E. Miller and Frances Vinall
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solomon_Islands_(archipelago)
SYDNEY — The leader of the Solomon Islands on Tuesday said he was poised to sign a proposed security agreement with China that has angered local opposition leaders, alarmed neighboring countries and thrust the small Pacific island nation to the center of a broader debate over the future of the Indo-Pacific.
In a defiant address to Parliament, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare described the backlash to the deal as “very insulting” even as he denied the agreement would lead to China building a military base in the Solomon Islands, 1,000 miles from Australian shores.
Sogavare compared his nation to a “helpless mouse” surrounded by “vicious cats” that would “do anything to survive.” He said he was not jettisoning existing security agreements with Australia and New Zealand — who along with the United States have objected to the deal — but rather trying to “diversify.”
His comments came days after a draft of the secret agreement was leaked, which the prime minister condemned. Sogavare said his government had “no devious intention, no secret plan.” Yet he gave little detail about the agreement on Tuesday, even as he said it was “ready for signing.”
Opposition leaders, who have accused Sogavare of using the agreement to consolidate power ahead of next year’s election, called for further discussion.
The nation of 700,000 people, which sits in a strategic but politically volatile part of the world, has been at the heart of a geopolitical tug-of-war since it changed diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019. “The Switch,” as the decision is known, underlined Beijing’s expanding influence in a region traditionally dominated by the United States and Australia.
The diplomatic U-turn — and accusations of associated bribes — angered many in the archipelago and, combined with long-standing local grievances, leading to widespread rioting in November that killed four people and burned much of the capital of Honiara to the ground.
‘Nothing left’: Solomon Islands burn amid new violence as Australian troops arrive
Peacekeepers from Australia and New Zealand remained in the capital, helping to guard Parliament, even as Sogavare announced the proposed agreement with China.
Australia said it was extending its peacekeeping mission on Thursday, the same day a draft of Sogavare’s deal with China was leaked online by the opposition.
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Damaged shops in Honiara, Solomon Islands, after rioting in November. (Piringi Charley/AP)
“Solomon Islands may, according to its own needs, request China to send police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces to Solomon Islands to assist in maintaining social order, protecting people’s lives and property,” said the leaked draft document, which called for secrecy.
In his address, Sogavare sought to reassure Australia and New Zealand that he was not abandoning agreements with them. But he also appeared to suggest they could have done more for his country and said it was insulting “to be branded as unfit to manage our sovereign affairs.”
“We are sensitive to the unfortunate perception held by many leaders that the region’s security is threatened by the presence of China in the region,” he said. “This is utter nonsense.”
Opposition leader Matthew Wale said he warned Australian officials of the proposed deal with China in August but found it “frustrating” that Canberra had failed to prevent the plan from proceeding.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said the agreement is of “great concern” but denied his administration hadn’t acted quickly enough. In phone calls Monday night, Morrison reportedly pressed the leaders of Fiji and Papua New Guinea to help persuade the Solomon Islands to abandon the deal with China. And on Tuesday morning, Morrison discussed the issue with his counterpart from New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, who has called the agreement a “potential militarization of the region.”
American officials have also objected to the proposed deal.
“We do not believe PRC security forces and their methods need to be exported,” a spokesman for the U.S. State Department said in a statement on Saturday. “This would only fuel local, regional, and international concerns over Beijing’s unilateral expansion of its internal security apparatus to the Pacific.”
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Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare walks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during a welcome ceremony in 2019 in Beijing. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP)
Sogavare did not disclose details of the proposed agreement on Tuesday, even as he rebuked his critics for spreading “misinformation” about it. He suggested it would allow Beijing to “protect” Chinese-built infrastructure on the islands, an apparent reference to stadiums China is building ahead of the 2023 Pacific Games. Much of the rioting in November targeted Chinese shops and businesses in the capital.
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the agreement would enhance stability in the Solomon Islands and the region.
“Relevant countries should earnestly respect Solomon Islands’ sovereignty and its independent decisions instead of deciding what others should and should not do self-importantly and condescendingly from a privileged position,” he said.
Anna Powles, a Pacific security expert at Massey University in New Zealand, said it was understandable that the United States, Australia, New Zealand and other countries in the region were concerned by the proposed security agreement.
The leaked draft was both “ambiguous and ambitious in scope,” she said, pointing to a lack of detail on the type of Chinese personnel who could be deployed to the islands and the type of tasks they would perform.
“There are provisions in there that imply that China is seeking logistical supply capabilities and material assets to be located in the Solomon Islands to support ship visits,” she said. “The conclusion that can be drawn here is that China is seeking some type of basing arrangement.”
A military presence in the islands would allow China to disrupt or block the sea lanes between Australia and the United States, warned Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at Australia’s National University.
“In the event of military confrontation in the region, it would increase China’s ability to essentially keep Australia out of the conflict and to basically blockade or coerce Australia,” he said. “So, in the long run, the security implications are very real.”
Medcalf and Powles both cautioned that the final agreement could differ from the leaked version, and that whatever is signed could take years to implement.
Setting aside the possibility of a Chinese base, Powles said the proposed agreement poses two risks. First, it could increase the likelihood of an incident on the islands involving forces from China and another country, such as Australia or New Zealand, which announced on Tuesday that it was also extending its peacekeeping mission.
“The likelihood of misinformation and mistakes being made and miscommunication would potentially be pretty high,” she said.
Second, by emboldening Sogavare, it could further inflame the already tense domestic situation in the Solomon Islands, where ethnic violence claimed about 200 lives from 1998 to 2003.
“We have this situation where strategic competition and local security and political dynamics are rubbing against each other, and that is potentially really destabilizing,” Powles said.
Australia, New Zealand and the United States are not without blame, as their approach to the Solomon Islands and other Pacific island nations has often appeared more about countering Chinese influence than long-term relationship building, she added.
In 2020, for instance, the United States went around Sogavare to pledge $25 million in aid to Malaita, the archipelago’s most populous island, which still recognizes Taiwan. And in February, when Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the United States would reopen its embassy in Honiara, nearly 30 years after it was shuttered, the decision came during a six-hour stop in Fiji that gave Pacific leaders only a few minutes to speak.
Medcalf called the proposed agreement “a wake-up call” for countries in the region and around the world.
“The security agencies in [Australia] have been sounding the alarm for at least the past four years about the possibility of a Chinese military base in the Pacific,” he said. “And they’ve not always been taken seriously in the public debate. This confirms that that was not a case of crying wolf, that there really is some intent and capability there.”
“At a time when the world, understandably, is focused on the terrible conflict in Europe,” he said, “it’s a reminder that there’s also a contest for influence in the Pacific with a military edge to it.”
Lily Kuo contributed to this report.
By Michael E. MillerMichael E. Miller is The Washington Post's Sydney bureau chief. He was previously on the local enterprise team. He joined The Washington Post in 2015 and has also reported for the newspaper from Afghanistan and Mexico. Twitter
By Frances VinallFrances Vinall is a reporter and researcher for The Washington Post who is based in Melbourne, Australia.
In a defiant address to Parliament, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare described the backlash to the deal as “very insulting” even as he denied the agreement would lead to China building a military base in the Solomon Islands, 1,000 miles from Australian shores.
Sogavare compared his nation to a “helpless mouse” surrounded by “vicious cats” that would “do anything to survive.” He said he was not jettisoning existing security agreements with Australia and New Zealand — who along with the United States have objected to the deal — but rather trying to “diversify.”
His comments came days after a draft of the secret agreement was leaked, which the prime minister condemned. Sogavare said his government had “no devious intention, no secret plan.” Yet he gave little detail about the agreement on Tuesday, even as he said it was “ready for signing.”
Opposition leaders, who have accused Sogavare of using the agreement to consolidate power ahead of next year’s election, called for further discussion.
The nation of 700,000 people, which sits in a strategic but politically volatile part of the world, has been at the heart of a geopolitical tug-of-war since it changed diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019. “The Switch,” as the decision is known, underlined Beijing’s expanding influence in a region traditionally dominated by the United States and Australia.
The diplomatic U-turn — and accusations of associated bribes — angered many in the archipelago and, combined with long-standing local grievances, leading to widespread rioting in November that killed four people and burned much of the capital of Honiara to the ground.
‘Nothing left’: Solomon Islands burn amid new violence as Australian troops arrive
Peacekeepers from Australia and New Zealand remained in the capital, helping to guard Parliament, even as Sogavare announced the proposed agreement with China.
Australia said it was extending its peacekeeping mission on Thursday, the same day a draft of Sogavare’s deal with China was leaked online by the opposition.
“Solomon Islands may, according to its own needs, request China to send police, armed police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces to Solomon Islands to assist in maintaining social order, protecting people’s lives and property,” said the leaked draft document, which called for secrecy.
In his address, Sogavare sought to reassure Australia and New Zealand that he was not abandoning agreements with them. But he also appeared to suggest they could have done more for his country and said it was insulting “to be branded as unfit to manage our sovereign affairs.”
“We are sensitive to the unfortunate perception held by many leaders that the region’s security is threatened by the presence of China in the region,” he said. “This is utter nonsense.”
Opposition leader Matthew Wale said he warned Australian officials of the proposed deal with China in August but found it “frustrating” that Canberra had failed to prevent the plan from proceeding.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said the agreement is of “great concern” but denied his administration hadn’t acted quickly enough. In phone calls Monday night, Morrison reportedly pressed the leaders of Fiji and Papua New Guinea to help persuade the Solomon Islands to abandon the deal with China. And on Tuesday morning, Morrison discussed the issue with his counterpart from New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, who has called the agreement a “potential militarization of the region.”
American officials have also objected to the proposed deal.
“We do not believe PRC security forces and their methods need to be exported,” a spokesman for the U.S. State Department said in a statement on Saturday. “This would only fuel local, regional, and international concerns over Beijing’s unilateral expansion of its internal security apparatus to the Pacific.”
Sogavare did not disclose details of the proposed agreement on Tuesday, even as he rebuked his critics for spreading “misinformation” about it. He suggested it would allow Beijing to “protect” Chinese-built infrastructure on the islands, an apparent reference to stadiums China is building ahead of the 2023 Pacific Games. Much of the rioting in November targeted Chinese shops and businesses in the capital.
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the agreement would enhance stability in the Solomon Islands and the region.
“Relevant countries should earnestly respect Solomon Islands’ sovereignty and its independent decisions instead of deciding what others should and should not do self-importantly and condescendingly from a privileged position,” he said.
Anna Powles, a Pacific security expert at Massey University in New Zealand, said it was understandable that the United States, Australia, New Zealand and other countries in the region were concerned by the proposed security agreement.
The leaked draft was both “ambiguous and ambitious in scope,” she said, pointing to a lack of detail on the type of Chinese personnel who could be deployed to the islands and the type of tasks they would perform.
“There are provisions in there that imply that China is seeking logistical supply capabilities and material assets to be located in the Solomon Islands to support ship visits,” she said. “The conclusion that can be drawn here is that China is seeking some type of basing arrangement.”
A military presence in the islands would allow China to disrupt or block the sea lanes between Australia and the United States, warned Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at Australia’s National University.
“In the event of military confrontation in the region, it would increase China’s ability to essentially keep Australia out of the conflict and to basically blockade or coerce Australia,” he said. “So, in the long run, the security implications are very real.”
Medcalf and Powles both cautioned that the final agreement could differ from the leaked version, and that whatever is signed could take years to implement.
Setting aside the possibility of a Chinese base, Powles said the proposed agreement poses two risks. First, it could increase the likelihood of an incident on the islands involving forces from China and another country, such as Australia or New Zealand, which announced on Tuesday that it was also extending its peacekeeping mission.
“The likelihood of misinformation and mistakes being made and miscommunication would potentially be pretty high,” she said.
Second, by emboldening Sogavare, it could further inflame the already tense domestic situation in the Solomon Islands, where ethnic violence claimed about 200 lives from 1998 to 2003.
“We have this situation where strategic competition and local security and political dynamics are rubbing against each other, and that is potentially really destabilizing,” Powles said.
Australia, New Zealand and the United States are not without blame, as their approach to the Solomon Islands and other Pacific island nations has often appeared more about countering Chinese influence than long-term relationship building, she added.
In 2020, for instance, the United States went around Sogavare to pledge $25 million in aid to Malaita, the archipelago’s most populous island, which still recognizes Taiwan. And in February, when Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the United States would reopen its embassy in Honiara, nearly 30 years after it was shuttered, the decision came during a six-hour stop in Fiji that gave Pacific leaders only a few minutes to speak.
“The security agencies in [Australia] have been sounding the alarm for at least the past four years about the possibility of a Chinese military base in the Pacific,” he said. “And they’ve not always been taken seriously in the public debate. This confirms that that was not a case of crying wolf, that there really is some intent and capability there.”
“At a time when the world, understandably, is focused on the terrible conflict in Europe,” he said, “it’s a reminder that there’s also a contest for influence in the Pacific with a military edge to it.”
Lily Kuo contributed to this report.
By Michael E. MillerMichael E. Miller is The Washington Post's Sydney bureau chief. He was previously on the local enterprise team. He joined The Washington Post in 2015 and has also reported for the newspaper from Afghanistan and Mexico. Twitter
By Frances VinallFrances Vinall is a reporter and researcher for The Washington Post who is based in Melbourne, Australia.
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