This photo distributed by the North Korean government shows what it says is a test-fire of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), at an undisclosed location in North Korea on March 24, 2022. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: "KCNA" which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency.
(Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)
HYUNG-JIN KIM
Tue, March 29, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea on Tuesday dismissed North Korea’s claim to have launched a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile last week, accusing the country of firing a less-powerful existing weapon and fabricating data following an earlier failed launch.
North Korea said it launched a Hwasong-17 missile, its longest-range developmental ICBM, last Thursday in its biggest weapons test in years. Its state media called the launch “a historical event” and released a stylized Hollywood-style video showing leader Kim Jong Un, in sunglasses and leather jacket, supervising the launch.
But South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it has determined that what North Korea fired wasn’t a Hwasong-17 but a Hwasong-15, another ICBM that it successfully tested in 2017.
Both missiles are potentially capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. But analysts say the Hwasong-17 has a longer potential range and its huge size suggests that it’s designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads to defeat missile defense systems. Believed to be about 25 meters (82 feet) long, the Hwasong-17 is, by some estimates, the world’s biggest road-mobile ballistic missile system.
HYUNG-JIN KIM
Tue, March 29, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea on Tuesday dismissed North Korea’s claim to have launched a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile last week, accusing the country of firing a less-powerful existing weapon and fabricating data following an earlier failed launch.
North Korea said it launched a Hwasong-17 missile, its longest-range developmental ICBM, last Thursday in its biggest weapons test in years. Its state media called the launch “a historical event” and released a stylized Hollywood-style video showing leader Kim Jong Un, in sunglasses and leather jacket, supervising the launch.
But South Korea’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it has determined that what North Korea fired wasn’t a Hwasong-17 but a Hwasong-15, another ICBM that it successfully tested in 2017.
Both missiles are potentially capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. But analysts say the Hwasong-17 has a longer potential range and its huge size suggests that it’s designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads to defeat missile defense systems. Believed to be about 25 meters (82 feet) long, the Hwasong-17 is, by some estimates, the world’s biggest road-mobile ballistic missile system.
IT WAS BACKGROUND FOR NEW SPRING FASHION
WITH NK MODEL KIM
LEATHER JACKET, NEW HAIR CUT, NK RAYBANS,
NK ROLEX
The Defense Ministry said it told a parliamentary committee that details of Thursday’s launch -- such as the missile’s speed, combustion and stage separation -- were similar to those of the Hwasong-15, not the Hwasong-17. The ministry report to the committee also suggested that the North Korean video wasn’t shot on the actual launch date, citing an analysis of Kim’s shadow and weather conditions seen in the video.
The report said the United States agreed with the South Korean assessment and is separately analyzing the launch.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said Monday that Tokyo’s assessment that North Korea launched a new type of ICBM remained unchanged. Matsuno said the missile poses a greater threat to Japan and the international community than other weapons North Korea has fired.
Thursday’s launch was North Korea’s most serious provocation since its Hwasong-15 launch in November 2017. It was also the latest in a slew of missile tests it has conducted this year in an apparent bid to modernize its arsenal and ramp up pressure on the Biden administration amid stalled nuclear talks between the two countries.
According to the assessments of both North Korea and its neighbors, the missile fired last Thursday flew higher and longer than any other North Korean weapon tested so far. Some experts say North Korea may have mounted a much lighter payload on the Hwasong-15 to help it fly further than its previous launch in 2017.
The South Korean Defense Ministry said the alleged North Korean deception was likely related to a previous failed attempt to launch the Hwasong-17 earlier this month.
According to South Korean accounts, the missile fired from North Korea’s capital region on March 16 exploded soon after liftoff and many residents of Pyongyang witnessed the mid-air blast. The ministry report said North Korea is believed to have then decided to launch a reliable ICBM which it could successfully fly to prevent possible public anxiety and bolster unity at home.
It said it is also likely that North Korea attempted to deceive its rivals into believing it has advanced ICBM technology to cement its image as a military power and increase its leverage in future negotiations.
Ha Tae-keung, a member of parliament’s defense committee, told reporters that the ministry said the explosion occurred at an altitude of only several kilometers (miles). He cited the ministry as saying the blast “sent debris like rain over Pyongyang” though civilian casualties haven’t been independently confirmed.
Colin Zwirko, a senior analyst at the North Korea-focused website NK Pro, earlier said commercial satellite images indicated that North Korean state TV video of the launch was likely shot on a different date. He said this raises the possibility that North Korea botched a Hwasong-17 test on March 16.
Prior to the failed March 16 launch, the South Korean and U.S. militaries said North Korea tested a Hwasong-17 system twice earlier this year in launches that flew medium distances. Some observers said North Korea was likely testing the first stage of the Hwasong-17, but North Korea said it tested cameras and other systems for a spy satellite without disclosing what missile or rocket it fired. The North didn't comment on the failed launch.
South Korean officials said this week that North Korea may raise tensions further in coming weeks by conducting another ICBM test, a prohibited launch of a rocket to place its first functioning spy satellite into orbit, or even a nuclear test.
North Korean state media didn’t immediately respond to the South Korean Defense Ministry report.
___
Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.
Analysts investigate possibility of N.Korea missile test 'deception'
FILE PHOTO: An overview of what state media reports is the launch of the "Hwasong-17" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)
Mon, March 28, 2022
By Josh Smith
SEOUL (Reuters) - Reports suggest North Korea's biggest missile test ever may not have been what it seemed, raising new questions over the secretive country's banned weapons programme.
North Korea said it had test-fired its new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Thursday, the first test of a missile that size since 2017.
North Korean state media heralded the launch as an "unprecedented miracle", and South Korean and Japanese officials independently confirmed flight data that showed it flew higher and longer than any previous test.
But new details - including discrepancies spotted in the North's heavily stylized video featuring leader Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch in a leather jacket and sunglasses - have poked holes in Pyongyang's claims.
"The biggest question now is what was launched on March 24," said Colin Zwirko, a senior analytical correspondent with NK Pro, a Seoul-based website that monitors North Korea.
He has examined commercial satellite imagery and footage released by state media and he says discrepancies in weather, sunlight, and other factors suggest the launch shown by North Korea happened on another day.
"I've been able to determine that there's some sort of deception going on, but the question remains: did they test another Hwasong-17 and they're just not showing us, or did they test something else?" Zwirko said.
The U.S.-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) concluded that some of the North Korean footage is most likely from a test on the morning of March 16 that South Korea said failed shortly after launch, exploding in midair over Pyongyang. North Korea never acknowledged that launch or a failure.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency has cited unnamed sources who said intelligence officials in Seoul and Washington believed that North Korea then tested a Hwasong-15 ICBM on Thursday, an older and slightly smaller type it had last launched in late 2017.
South Korea's defense ministry has not confirmed that conclusion. On Friday, a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, deflected when asked whether the latest launch was really the new missile.
"We know this is a test of a long-range ballistic missile and clearly they try to learn from each of these tests to try to develop their capability further," the official said. "But I am going to refrain from talking about it too specifically as we're still analyzing our own intelligence on it."
North Korea has a history of doctoring footage or reusing old images, but it would be "a whole new level" if they were lying about the successful test of a major new weapon such as the Hwasong-17, Zwirko said. North Korea has not responded to any outside reports that the launch may have been deceptive.
"I think it's likely that the March 16 launch was meant to have been the inaugural launch of the Hwasong-17, but it failed shortly after ignition," said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "This left the North Koreans with sufficient video footage and imagery to build a propaganda narrative after the March 24 launch succeeded."
The March 24 missile may have featured a light payload, or none at all, to achieve a higher altitude and longer flight time than the 2017 Hwasong-15 test, he added.
"The North Korean state media report included specific numbers on how high and far the missile flew, suggesting that there was an intent to engineer a launch that would look like a larger missile than the Hwasong-15, even if it wasn't," Panda said.
Hong Min, director of North Korean Research Division of Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said no matter which ICBM was tested, North Korea has proved it can launch missiles that can strike the far side of the planet.
"We will need to check thoroughly if the video was fabricated, but it’s not like the threat is reduced at all," Hong said.
(Reporting by Josh Smith; Additional reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington and Heejung Jung in Seoul. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
The report said the United States agreed with the South Korean assessment and is separately analyzing the launch.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said Monday that Tokyo’s assessment that North Korea launched a new type of ICBM remained unchanged. Matsuno said the missile poses a greater threat to Japan and the international community than other weapons North Korea has fired.
Thursday’s launch was North Korea’s most serious provocation since its Hwasong-15 launch in November 2017. It was also the latest in a slew of missile tests it has conducted this year in an apparent bid to modernize its arsenal and ramp up pressure on the Biden administration amid stalled nuclear talks between the two countries.
According to the assessments of both North Korea and its neighbors, the missile fired last Thursday flew higher and longer than any other North Korean weapon tested so far. Some experts say North Korea may have mounted a much lighter payload on the Hwasong-15 to help it fly further than its previous launch in 2017.
The South Korean Defense Ministry said the alleged North Korean deception was likely related to a previous failed attempt to launch the Hwasong-17 earlier this month.
According to South Korean accounts, the missile fired from North Korea’s capital region on March 16 exploded soon after liftoff and many residents of Pyongyang witnessed the mid-air blast. The ministry report said North Korea is believed to have then decided to launch a reliable ICBM which it could successfully fly to prevent possible public anxiety and bolster unity at home.
It said it is also likely that North Korea attempted to deceive its rivals into believing it has advanced ICBM technology to cement its image as a military power and increase its leverage in future negotiations.
Ha Tae-keung, a member of parliament’s defense committee, told reporters that the ministry said the explosion occurred at an altitude of only several kilometers (miles). He cited the ministry as saying the blast “sent debris like rain over Pyongyang” though civilian casualties haven’t been independently confirmed.
Colin Zwirko, a senior analyst at the North Korea-focused website NK Pro, earlier said commercial satellite images indicated that North Korean state TV video of the launch was likely shot on a different date. He said this raises the possibility that North Korea botched a Hwasong-17 test on March 16.
Prior to the failed March 16 launch, the South Korean and U.S. militaries said North Korea tested a Hwasong-17 system twice earlier this year in launches that flew medium distances. Some observers said North Korea was likely testing the first stage of the Hwasong-17, but North Korea said it tested cameras and other systems for a spy satellite without disclosing what missile or rocket it fired. The North didn't comment on the failed launch.
South Korean officials said this week that North Korea may raise tensions further in coming weeks by conducting another ICBM test, a prohibited launch of a rocket to place its first functioning spy satellite into orbit, or even a nuclear test.
North Korean state media didn’t immediately respond to the South Korean Defense Ministry report.
___
Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.
FILE PHOTO: An overview of what state media reports is the launch of the "Hwasong-17" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)
Mon, March 28, 2022
By Josh Smith
SEOUL (Reuters) - Reports suggest North Korea's biggest missile test ever may not have been what it seemed, raising new questions over the secretive country's banned weapons programme.
North Korea said it had test-fired its new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Thursday, the first test of a missile that size since 2017.
North Korean state media heralded the launch as an "unprecedented miracle", and South Korean and Japanese officials independently confirmed flight data that showed it flew higher and longer than any previous test.
But new details - including discrepancies spotted in the North's heavily stylized video featuring leader Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch in a leather jacket and sunglasses - have poked holes in Pyongyang's claims.
"The biggest question now is what was launched on March 24," said Colin Zwirko, a senior analytical correspondent with NK Pro, a Seoul-based website that monitors North Korea.
He has examined commercial satellite imagery and footage released by state media and he says discrepancies in weather, sunlight, and other factors suggest the launch shown by North Korea happened on another day.
"I've been able to determine that there's some sort of deception going on, but the question remains: did they test another Hwasong-17 and they're just not showing us, or did they test something else?" Zwirko said.
The U.S.-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) concluded that some of the North Korean footage is most likely from a test on the morning of March 16 that South Korea said failed shortly after launch, exploding in midair over Pyongyang. North Korea never acknowledged that launch or a failure.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency has cited unnamed sources who said intelligence officials in Seoul and Washington believed that North Korea then tested a Hwasong-15 ICBM on Thursday, an older and slightly smaller type it had last launched in late 2017.
South Korea's defense ministry has not confirmed that conclusion. On Friday, a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, deflected when asked whether the latest launch was really the new missile.
"We know this is a test of a long-range ballistic missile and clearly they try to learn from each of these tests to try to develop their capability further," the official said. "But I am going to refrain from talking about it too specifically as we're still analyzing our own intelligence on it."
North Korea has a history of doctoring footage or reusing old images, but it would be "a whole new level" if they were lying about the successful test of a major new weapon such as the Hwasong-17, Zwirko said. North Korea has not responded to any outside reports that the launch may have been deceptive.
"I think it's likely that the March 16 launch was meant to have been the inaugural launch of the Hwasong-17, but it failed shortly after ignition," said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "This left the North Koreans with sufficient video footage and imagery to build a propaganda narrative after the March 24 launch succeeded."
The March 24 missile may have featured a light payload, or none at all, to achieve a higher altitude and longer flight time than the 2017 Hwasong-15 test, he added.
"The North Korean state media report included specific numbers on how high and far the missile flew, suggesting that there was an intent to engineer a launch that would look like a larger missile than the Hwasong-15, even if it wasn't," Panda said.
Hong Min, director of North Korean Research Division of Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said no matter which ICBM was tested, North Korea has proved it can launch missiles that can strike the far side of the planet.
"We will need to check thoroughly if the video was fabricated, but it’s not like the threat is reduced at all," Hong said.
(Reporting by Josh Smith; Additional reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington and Heejung Jung in Seoul. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
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