Bolsonaro Brings Trump’s ‘Stop the Steal’ Tactics to the Brazilian Election
Yasmeen Serhan
Fri, September 30, 2022
President Jair Bolsonaro Holds Campaign Event
Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's President, during a campaign event in Santos, São Paulo state, Brazil, on Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022. Credit - Victor Moriyama—Bloomberg/Getty
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has spent much of the past four years imitating one man: Donald Trump. Bolsonaro did so during his 2018 presidential campaign, when his iconoclastic political style and crude statements about women, Indigenous groups, and the media earned him the moniker “Trump of the Tropics.” He did so again during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he railed against lockdowns and spread misinformation about the safety and efficacy of lifesaving vaccines. And he did so in the aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, when Bolsonaro became one of the few international leaders to back Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud, and was one of the last to finally acknowledge Trump’s defeat.
The fear now facing many Brazilians is that Bolsonaro could pull off his biggest Trump tribute act to date when their country goes to the polls for the first round of its general elections on Sunday. The far-right Brazilian leader has spent much of the past year claiming, without evidence, that his country’s electronic voting system is susceptible to fraud. (Brazil’s electronic voting system, which was introduced more than two decades ago explicitly to combat fraud, has a strong track record for reliability.) Bolsonaro has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose reelection, presenting his only options as victory, arrest, or death. With polls showing him trailing his left-wing rival, the former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazilian democracy seems poised to be put on a collision course with Bolsonaro and his most loyal supporters, some of whom have threatened violence against their opponents.
Trump’s “Stop the Steal” playbook might seem like an odd one for the Brazilian President to follow. The former U.S. President didn’t, after all, stop the transition of power to Joe Biden. His supporters’ storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 also earned Trump the distinct dishonor of being the first President to ever be impeached twice. The seemingly obvious question, then, is what Bolsonaro stands to gain from emulating a strategy that ultimately failed?
The answer is a lot. Yes, Trump did not retain the presidency. But by virtually every other metric, he has been a success. He remains the de facto leader of the Republican Party and is widely seen as the favorite to win his party’s nomination for the 2024 presidential election. Unlike most former presidents, who often tend to retire into relative post-political obscurity, Trump continues to be relevant. While this is partly driven by the range of criminal and civil investigations he faces, it is also influenced by the intrigue over whether he’ll indeed stand as a candidate in 2024. “I’ve already made that decision,” Trump told New York magazine in July, without specifying further. A good entertainer knows how to keep his audience engaged.
If Bolsonaro has learned anything from Trump, it’s that the politics of grievance can have its advantages. It can be weaponized to galvanize your base, lend support to your allies, and, perhaps most crucially for Boslonaro, shield yourself from prosecution by declaring any such efforts to be a politically-motivated witch hunt. For Bolsonaro, who previously faced potential criminal charges over his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, this could factor into his decision making. “It doesn’t guarantee immunity, but it provides you with an extra layer of protection,” says Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, a university and think tank in São Paulo. “Bolsonaro’s interpretation is that there is an actual incentive not to concede and that in many ways he’d be better off if he contested the result.”
Read More: What To Know About Brazil’s Crucial Election
But Brazilian democracy would stand worse off for it. The country’s faith in democracy had already taken a beating under Bolsonaro, with 44% believing that Brazil is becoming less democratic, according to a recent study conducted by YouGov. Analysts fear that Bolsonaro’s unfounded claims about voting machines stands to only further undermine Brazilians’ trust in the democratic process and could even lead to widespread unrest or, worse yet, an attempted coup. Claims of electoral fraud and content discrediting the electoral process have already run rampant on Brazilian social media.
While U.S. institutions ultimately withstood Trump’s efforts to subvert the election, its consequences are still being felt today. Trump’s “Stop the Steal” campaign continues to have widespread traction—so much so that candidates endorsing his election fraud claims are expected to appear in ballots in nearly every state in the U.S. midterms this November. Brazilian democracy could prove to be even less robust. “Faith in institutions was already much lower in Brazil than in the United States,” says Christopher Sabatini, a senior researcher fellow for Latin America at Chatham House and founder of Americas Quarterly. Even if an attempted coup doesn’t materialize, the country could still be left with millions of hardcore Bolsonaro supporters who no longer have faith in the democratic process. In this way, Sabatini adds, “The damage has already been done.”
What Bolsonaro ultimately does is anyone’s guess. During the final weeks of the campaign, the Brazilian leader has offered contradictory statements. On a podcast earlier this month, he appeared to acknowledge the prospect of electoral defeat, saying that he would quit politics if that ever came to pass. Days later, while visiting London for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, he told a Brazilian broadcaster that if he wins less than 60% of the vote in the first round of voting, “something abnormal has happened.” (If neither candidate exceeds 50% of the vote in the first round, there will be a runoff at the end of October to determine the winner.)
“He is a famously intemperate and capricious person and so we won’t know until the moment,” says Sabatini. “He probably won’t even know until the moment.” What is certain, however, is that win or lose, Bolsonaro can count on Trump’s support.
Yasmeen Serhan
Fri, September 30, 2022
President Jair Bolsonaro Holds Campaign Event
Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's President, during a campaign event in Santos, São Paulo state, Brazil, on Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022. Credit - Victor Moriyama—Bloomberg/Getty
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has spent much of the past four years imitating one man: Donald Trump. Bolsonaro did so during his 2018 presidential campaign, when his iconoclastic political style and crude statements about women, Indigenous groups, and the media earned him the moniker “Trump of the Tropics.” He did so again during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he railed against lockdowns and spread misinformation about the safety and efficacy of lifesaving vaccines. And he did so in the aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, when Bolsonaro became one of the few international leaders to back Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud, and was one of the last to finally acknowledge Trump’s defeat.
The fear now facing many Brazilians is that Bolsonaro could pull off his biggest Trump tribute act to date when their country goes to the polls for the first round of its general elections on Sunday. The far-right Brazilian leader has spent much of the past year claiming, without evidence, that his country’s electronic voting system is susceptible to fraud. (Brazil’s electronic voting system, which was introduced more than two decades ago explicitly to combat fraud, has a strong track record for reliability.) Bolsonaro has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose reelection, presenting his only options as victory, arrest, or death. With polls showing him trailing his left-wing rival, the former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazilian democracy seems poised to be put on a collision course with Bolsonaro and his most loyal supporters, some of whom have threatened violence against their opponents.
Trump’s “Stop the Steal” playbook might seem like an odd one for the Brazilian President to follow. The former U.S. President didn’t, after all, stop the transition of power to Joe Biden. His supporters’ storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 also earned Trump the distinct dishonor of being the first President to ever be impeached twice. The seemingly obvious question, then, is what Bolsonaro stands to gain from emulating a strategy that ultimately failed?
The answer is a lot. Yes, Trump did not retain the presidency. But by virtually every other metric, he has been a success. He remains the de facto leader of the Republican Party and is widely seen as the favorite to win his party’s nomination for the 2024 presidential election. Unlike most former presidents, who often tend to retire into relative post-political obscurity, Trump continues to be relevant. While this is partly driven by the range of criminal and civil investigations he faces, it is also influenced by the intrigue over whether he’ll indeed stand as a candidate in 2024. “I’ve already made that decision,” Trump told New York magazine in July, without specifying further. A good entertainer knows how to keep his audience engaged.
If Bolsonaro has learned anything from Trump, it’s that the politics of grievance can have its advantages. It can be weaponized to galvanize your base, lend support to your allies, and, perhaps most crucially for Boslonaro, shield yourself from prosecution by declaring any such efforts to be a politically-motivated witch hunt. For Bolsonaro, who previously faced potential criminal charges over his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, this could factor into his decision making. “It doesn’t guarantee immunity, but it provides you with an extra layer of protection,” says Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, a university and think tank in São Paulo. “Bolsonaro’s interpretation is that there is an actual incentive not to concede and that in many ways he’d be better off if he contested the result.”
Read More: What To Know About Brazil’s Crucial Election
But Brazilian democracy would stand worse off for it. The country’s faith in democracy had already taken a beating under Bolsonaro, with 44% believing that Brazil is becoming less democratic, according to a recent study conducted by YouGov. Analysts fear that Bolsonaro’s unfounded claims about voting machines stands to only further undermine Brazilians’ trust in the democratic process and could even lead to widespread unrest or, worse yet, an attempted coup. Claims of electoral fraud and content discrediting the electoral process have already run rampant on Brazilian social media.
While U.S. institutions ultimately withstood Trump’s efforts to subvert the election, its consequences are still being felt today. Trump’s “Stop the Steal” campaign continues to have widespread traction—so much so that candidates endorsing his election fraud claims are expected to appear in ballots in nearly every state in the U.S. midterms this November. Brazilian democracy could prove to be even less robust. “Faith in institutions was already much lower in Brazil than in the United States,” says Christopher Sabatini, a senior researcher fellow for Latin America at Chatham House and founder of Americas Quarterly. Even if an attempted coup doesn’t materialize, the country could still be left with millions of hardcore Bolsonaro supporters who no longer have faith in the democratic process. In this way, Sabatini adds, “The damage has already been done.”
What Bolsonaro ultimately does is anyone’s guess. During the final weeks of the campaign, the Brazilian leader has offered contradictory statements. On a podcast earlier this month, he appeared to acknowledge the prospect of electoral defeat, saying that he would quit politics if that ever came to pass. Days later, while visiting London for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, he told a Brazilian broadcaster that if he wins less than 60% of the vote in the first round of voting, “something abnormal has happened.” (If neither candidate exceeds 50% of the vote in the first round, there will be a runoff at the end of October to determine the winner.)
“He is a famously intemperate and capricious person and so we won’t know until the moment,” says Sabatini. “He probably won’t even know until the moment.” What is certain, however, is that win or lose, Bolsonaro can count on Trump’s support.
Brazil's Bolsonaro has his same old election fraud excuse ready if he loses
Ananya Bhattacharya
Thu, September 29, 2022
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is trailing at the polls—and he’s getting ready to blame the country’s voting system for it.
Bolsonaro and his party have claimed, without evidence, that government employees could alter ballots. They insist the electronic voting machines, used for 25 years, are prone to fraud, but provided no proof of this when the opportunity to do so presented itself last year.
The enflamed rhetoric of the campaign, and Bolsonaro’s attempts to undermine the voting system, has raised fears of political violence should the election loser refuse to accept defeat.
2018 “WhatsApp election” deja vu
In the last presidential election, the rampant spread of fake news played a big hand in Bolsonaro’s win. Meta-owned messaging app WhatsApp—which was used by 120 million of the 210 million Brazilians then—was flooded with fake articles and videos favoring the now-president.
Crying foul about electronic voting machines was a big part of the ploy: Up to 48% of the rightwing items found in an analysis of 11,957 viral messages from 2018's election period mentioned a fictional plot to fraudulently manipulate the electronic ballot system.
2022 election schedule
A few days ahead of the election, polls give left-wing rival Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro, and might even amass enough votes to win a 50 percent plus one majority.
Oct. 2: Brazilians will vote in the first round to elect a president, 27 of 81 senators, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and all 27 governors and state legislatures.
Oct. 30: second round of voting will take place if no presidential candidate bags 50% of the votes
Person of interest: Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva
Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is coming back to finish what he started.
The 76-year-old left-wing leader was president between January 2003 and December 2010. He enjoyed great popularity, but his legacy was ultimately marred by corruption convictions in 2017, which Lula appealed. In 2018, Brazil’s top electoral court forced him to drop off the presidential race, in which he was a frontrunner. In March 2021, the Brazilian Supreme Court voided his conviction.
During his stint as president, his welfare policies focused on fighting hunger and redistributing wealth were credited with lifting 20 million Brazilians out of poverty. With majority of Brazilians still struggling with food insecurity and rising inflation, Lula’s supporters hope he can work his magic again.
Ananya Bhattacharya
Thu, September 29, 2022
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is trailing at the polls—and he’s getting ready to blame the country’s voting system for it.
Bolsonaro and his party have claimed, without evidence, that government employees could alter ballots. They insist the electronic voting machines, used for 25 years, are prone to fraud, but provided no proof of this when the opportunity to do so presented itself last year.
The enflamed rhetoric of the campaign, and Bolsonaro’s attempts to undermine the voting system, has raised fears of political violence should the election loser refuse to accept defeat.
2018 “WhatsApp election” deja vu
In the last presidential election, the rampant spread of fake news played a big hand in Bolsonaro’s win. Meta-owned messaging app WhatsApp—which was used by 120 million of the 210 million Brazilians then—was flooded with fake articles and videos favoring the now-president.
Crying foul about electronic voting machines was a big part of the ploy: Up to 48% of the rightwing items found in an analysis of 11,957 viral messages from 2018's election period mentioned a fictional plot to fraudulently manipulate the electronic ballot system.
2022 election schedule
A few days ahead of the election, polls give left-wing rival Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro, and might even amass enough votes to win a 50 percent plus one majority.
Oct. 2: Brazilians will vote in the first round to elect a president, 27 of 81 senators, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and all 27 governors and state legislatures.
Oct. 30: second round of voting will take place if no presidential candidate bags 50% of the votes
Person of interest: Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva
Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is coming back to finish what he started.
The 76-year-old left-wing leader was president between January 2003 and December 2010. He enjoyed great popularity, but his legacy was ultimately marred by corruption convictions in 2017, which Lula appealed. In 2018, Brazil’s top electoral court forced him to drop off the presidential race, in which he was a frontrunner. In March 2021, the Brazilian Supreme Court voided his conviction.
During his stint as president, his welfare policies focused on fighting hunger and redistributing wealth were credited with lifting 20 million Brazilians out of poverty. With majority of Brazilians still struggling with food insecurity and rising inflation, Lula’s supporters hope he can work his magic again.
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro attends a campaign rally in Sao Paulo state
Wed, September 28, 2022
BRASILIA (Reuters) -Several dozen members of the European parliament urged European Union leaders on Wednesday to monitor Brazil's Sunday election for attempts by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro to subvert democracy, arguing trade sanctions should apply if he does.
Voters in Brazil head to the polls for a first-round presidential vote on Oct. 2, with leftist front-runner and former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, expanding his lead over Bolsonaro in the latest polls even as fears of post-election turmoil persist.
In an open letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Vice President Josep Borrell, the Greens–European Free Alliance and some Social Democrat parliamentarians, 50 altogether, accused Bolsonaro of systematically attacking Brazil's electoral system.
"We urge you to take additional steps to make it unequivocally clear to President Bolsonaro and his government that Brazil's constitution must be respected and attempts to subvert the rules of democracy are unacceptable," the lawmakers wrote.
"The EU should state that it will use different levers, including trade, to defend Brazil's democracy and human rights," they added.
Later on Wednesday, the United States Senate passed a resolution urging Brazil's government to ensure a "free, fair, credible, transparent, and peaceful" election.
The resolution also calls on U.S. authorities to reconsider its relationship with any government that comes to power in Brazil through undemocratic means, including a military coup.
Bolsonaro is widely expected to contest the result if he loses. He has claimed without evidence that electoral authorities will rig the vote against him and that electronic voting cannot be trusted.
A recent IPEC poll shows Lula increased his lead to 17 points with 48% support versus 31% for Bolsonaro. The poll showed Lula could win outright in the first round, with 52% of voter intentions, above the 50% threshold needed to avoid a second-round.
(Reporting by Anthony Boadle; Additional reporting by Peter Siqueira; Editing by Paul Simao and Christopher Cushing)
Brazil's Bolsonaro enlists Neymar on campaign stop
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for a second term, speaks during a campaign rally in Santos, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022. Brazil's general elections are scheduled for Oct. 2.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for a second term, speaks during a campaign rally in Santos, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022. Brazil's general elections are scheduled for Oct. 2.
(AP Photo/Andre Penner)
MAURICIO SAVARESE
Wed, September 28, 2022
SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro enlisted the help of soccer star Neymar on a campaign stop Wednesday, just four days before the country's general elections.
Bolsonaro visited a non-profit youth institute set up by Neymar in the city of Praia Grande and took a call from the Paris Saint-Germain player, who thanked the far-right leader and said he was proud of him.
Bolsonaro is largely trailing leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote. The Brazilian president arrived at the Neymar Jr. Institute, outside Sao Paulo, after riding a motorcycle alongside supporters.
“President Bolsonaro,” Neymar said in a video posted by Brazil's Communications Minister, Fabio Faria. “I thank you for your illustrious visit. I wish I was there, unfortunately I am far away. But I will be with you in the next one. I am very happy because you are there.”
Bolsonaro posted another video on Twitter showing Neymar's call during his visit, as hundreds of children circled around the president and took pictures with him.
“I thank you for your support, as always,” the footballer tells the far-right leader. “You know that I am very proud of you."
Neymar played Tuesday in Brazil's 5-1 win against Tunisia in a pre-World Cup friendly in Paris. He scored one of the goals from the penalty spot.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the striker had suggested on his social media channels he was withdrawing his support for Bolsonaro, who is unvaccinated and proudly flouted health protocols as the disease spread. More than 680,000 people died due to the virus in Brazil.
Bolsonaro said that Neymar's institute “is a reference for all of Brazil."
“Our Neymar is a source of pride for all of us,” Brazil's president said.
Neymar da Silva Santos, the player's father and agent, also celebrated Bolsonaro's visit on his social media channels.
___
More AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports
MAURICIO SAVARESE
Wed, September 28, 2022
SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro enlisted the help of soccer star Neymar on a campaign stop Wednesday, just four days before the country's general elections.
Bolsonaro visited a non-profit youth institute set up by Neymar in the city of Praia Grande and took a call from the Paris Saint-Germain player, who thanked the far-right leader and said he was proud of him.
Bolsonaro is largely trailing leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote. The Brazilian president arrived at the Neymar Jr. Institute, outside Sao Paulo, after riding a motorcycle alongside supporters.
“President Bolsonaro,” Neymar said in a video posted by Brazil's Communications Minister, Fabio Faria. “I thank you for your illustrious visit. I wish I was there, unfortunately I am far away. But I will be with you in the next one. I am very happy because you are there.”
Bolsonaro posted another video on Twitter showing Neymar's call during his visit, as hundreds of children circled around the president and took pictures with him.
“I thank you for your support, as always,” the footballer tells the far-right leader. “You know that I am very proud of you."
Neymar played Tuesday in Brazil's 5-1 win against Tunisia in a pre-World Cup friendly in Paris. He scored one of the goals from the penalty spot.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the striker had suggested on his social media channels he was withdrawing his support for Bolsonaro, who is unvaccinated and proudly flouted health protocols as the disease spread. More than 680,000 people died due to the virus in Brazil.
Bolsonaro said that Neymar's institute “is a reference for all of Brazil."
“Our Neymar is a source of pride for all of us,” Brazil's president said.
Neymar da Silva Santos, the player's father and agent, also celebrated Bolsonaro's visit on his social media channels.
___
More AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports
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