Cross-border shopping dilutes public revenue less than previously thought

University of Copenhagen

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The map shows how the researchers divided Denmark into groups. Households in the yellow postcodes live within 150 kilometres of the nearest border shop and lost access to cross-border shopping when the border was closed during the COVID-19 lockdowns. These households are compared with households in the purple postcodes across the rest of Jutland and Funen. The purple households were affected by the same lockdowns but lived too far from the border for cross-border shopping to be financially worthwhile.

Zealand, Lolland-Falster and Bornholm (shown in green) were excluded because residents can access cross-border shopping via bridges and ferries. The blue areas represent postcode districts with no households participating in the panel.

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Credit: Source: Bjerg et al. (2026)

Will higher sin taxes, and therefore higher prices, on sweets, soft drinks and beer lead to more cross-border shopping? The answer is often assumed to be yes in the public debate, where one of the main arguments against sin taxes on unhealthy products has long been that higher prices will encourage more Danes to shop across the border.

However, a team of researchers from the Department of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Copenhagen challenges that argument in a new study published in The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. The researchers analysed Danish households' purchasing patterns during the COVID-19 border closures in 2020 and 2021, when cross-border shopping was effectively impossible. More specifically, they examined how much of the shopping that normally takes place at the Danish-German border returned to Danish shops when cross-border shopping was no longer an option.

“The amount is considerably smaller than official Danish estimates suggest. The authorities assume that all purchases made in Germany would instead have been made in Denmark if the border had been closed. Our findings show that this is not the case,” says Magnus Munk Bjerg, PhD student at the Department of Food and Resource Economics and co-author of the study.

According to the Danish Ministry of Taxation, the Danish state lost DKK 1.16 billion due to cross-border shopping in 2019, excluding tobacco products. The researchers' estimate is substantially lower, at DKK 415 million.

“The Ministry of Taxation bases its calculations on what Danes buy in Germany. But if we want to understand what Denmark actually loses, we need to look at what happens to consumption in Denmark. That is precisely what we have done,” says Magnus Munk Bjerg.

He also offers a possible explanation for why Danes do not simply buy the same products in Denmark that they purchase across the border:

“Once people have packed the car or trailer and driven a considerable distance, they are likely to buy a range of additional products to make the trip worthwhile,” says Magnus Munk Bjerg.

Cross-border shopping is primarily a local phenomenon

In the study, the researchers compare purchases made by households living close to the border with those made by households living so far away that cross-border shopping has never represented a financial benefit.

They found that households living within 30 kilometres of the border increased their spending on sin goods, including sweets, chocolate, crisps, soft drinks, beer, wine and spirits, by 109 percent in Danish shops when the border closed.

Overall, households within 150 kilometres of the border increased their spending on sin goods by an average of 21 percent as a result of the border closure. Beyond 120 kilometres from the border, the researchers could detect no change in household consumption patterns.

The researchers stress that cross-border shopping remains highly significant for people living close to the border. Nevertheless, the study highlights an important point:

“If the policy objective of taxing these products is both to increase government revenue and improve public health, our findings suggest that those effects are likely to be fully realised for the vast majority of Danish households,” says Carl-Emil Pless, postdoctoral researcher and co-author of the study.

If sin taxes on sin goods were increased tomorrow, the results suggest that it would primarily be people living close to the border who would respond by shopping across the border.

“Some residents of the border region might travel to Germany even more frequently than they already do, but this is a relatively small group overall. The effect is therefore primarily local rather than national,” says Carl-Emil Pless.

According to the researchers, the findings may also have implications for how policymakers think about the optimal level of taxation on sin goods:

“We are not saying what the tax rate should be. But our results show that cross-border shopping should carry less weight when policymakers decide how taxes on unhealthy foods ought to be designed,” concludes Magnus Munk Bjerg.

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Fact box: Why the ministry's and researchers' estimates differ

The Danish Ministry of Taxation estimates that Denmark loses approximately DKK 1.5 billion annually due to cross-border shopping in sin goods, excluding tobacco products. This estimate is based on data on purchases made by Danes in border shops.

The researchers challenge this estimate using data from Danish households' purchases during the COVID-19 border closures in 2020 and 2021, when cross-border shopping was impossible. For comparison, they use the Ministry's estimate from 2019, when the Ministry calculated the loss from cross-border shopping at DKK 1.16 billion.

The analysis shows that Danes purchase only a fraction of the products in Denmark that they previously bought in Germany. As a result, the researchers conclude that the financial loss to the Danish state is substantially smaller.

Their estimate puts the loss at DKK 415 million, roughly a third of the estimates reported by the Ministry of Taxation.

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Fact box: About the study

The study has recently been published in The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

The researchers used data from the YouGov Shopper Panel, a panel of Danish households that continuously records grocery purchases. The findings were validated using an independent dataset from Spenderlog.

The following researchers from the Department of Food and Resource Economics contributed to the study: Magnus Munk Bjerg, Carl-Emil Pless, Christopher Posselt and Sinne Smed.

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Journal

Scandinavian Journal of Economics

DOI

10.1111/sjoe.70045

Article Title

Sin taxes in a sealed market: dilution and leakage related to cross-border shopping

The figure shows spending on sin goods in Danish shops among households in the treatment group (yellow) and the control group (purple), excluding tobacco products. The grey shaded areas indicate the two COVID-19 lockdown periods and the associated border closures. The dashed lines mark periods of pandemic-related restrictions.

Before the lockdowns, households living close to the border spent noticeably less in Danish shops because they could shop in Germany. When the border closed, the difference disappeared. It re-emerged when the border reopened.

Credit

Source: Bjerg et al. (2026), based on data from the YouGov Shopper Panel

 

How combining science and community knowledge could shape coral reef conservation in Indonesia

Study across Indonesia’s Spermonde Archipelago highlights how combining scientific monitoring with local knowledge could inform locally tailored conservation strategies

Hasanuddin University

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Researchers led by Prof. Jompa from Hasanuddin University assessed coral reefs’ health across three islands in Indonesia’s Spermonde Archipelago, combining ecological monitoring with community perspectives. The study found clear differences in reef conditions and highlighted opportunities for stronger community involvement in conservation through targeted training, tools, and support.

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Credit: Professor Jamaluddin Jompa from Hasanuddin University, Indonesia

Researchers from Hasanuddin University assessed coral reef conditions across Indonesia’s Spermonde Archipelago using social and ecological data. Their findings reveal substantial differences between sites, highlighting the potential for local communities to drive reef conservation with the right training, tools, and support. This work advances United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (Life Below Water) through improved coral reef monitoring and conservation and supports SDG 13 (Climate Action) by strengthening resilience to climate pressures.

The Spermonde Archipelago, home to 120 coral islands, is a coral biodiversity hotspot in Indonesia. However, reefs face increasing pressure from pollution, destructive fishing, coastal development, and other human activities. Live coral cover has declined from 45% to 28% over the past two decades, underscoring the need for effective reef monitoring.

Several approaches are available for monitoring coral reefs: Line Intercept Transects (LIT) record substrate along measured lines; Underwater Photo Transects (UPT) estimate substrate coverage using transect photographs; and drone surveys capture broader reef views from above the water. But which approach works best under the dynamic conditions of the Spermonde Archipelago? Until now, no systematic comparison had been conducted.

Professor Jamaluddin Jompa at the Department of Marine Science, Hasanuddin University, and his colleagues evaluated these approaches across three representative islands in the Spermonde Archipelago, each with different water-quality conditions: Lae-Lae Island, with highly turbid water; Kodingareng Lompo Island, with moderate water clarity; and Lanyukang Island, with relatively clear water. They also conducted focus group discussions with 33 residents to understand local perceptions about reef degradation and identify conservation measures suited to local conditions.

The study was made available online on April 8, 2026, and will be published in Volume 9 of the journal Anthropocene Coasts on December 1, 2026.

“We aimed to provide an evidence-based foundation for conservation policies while enhancing the adaptive capacity of local communities and stakeholders in responding to evolving ecological challenges in the Spermonde Archipelago,” explained Prof. Jompa.

The results showed that coral reef conditions varied across sites with different water conditions. The LIT and UPT results showed better reef conditions in the clearer waters of Kodingareng Lompo and Lanyukang, where live hard coral remained relatively abundant. In contrast, the more turbid waters of Lae-Lae had more rock, coral rubble, and dead coral covered with algae. Drone mapping provided a broader view of the reefs but could not reliably distinguish different substrate types in the highly turbid waters of Lae-Lae.

Together, the findings highlight the complementary value of drone observations and underwater surveys. LIT and UPT can provide detailed information about reef conditions but require trained divers and specialized equipment, while drone mapping can survey larger areas without experienced divers but does not provide the same level of detail.

The focus group discussions showed that local communities were aware of the decline in coral reef conditions, although their understanding of the causes of the decline was more limited. More than half of the respondents considered reef conditions to be either deteriorating or severely deteriorating. However, only 26.5% were able to correctly identify different stages of coral health from images.

The discussions also showed that residents recognized local environmental problems and proposed tailored solutions. In Lae-Lae, where turbid and waste-affected waters were a major concern, participants emphasized waste management. In Kodingareng Lompo, they proposed combining patrols and enforcement with coral transplantation. In Lanyukang, where water clarity was higher, participants placed greater emphasis on controlling destructive fishing.

However, community readiness to participate in reef conservation and monitoring was limited. Only 29.4% of respondents reported a high level of readiness to participate, while half said they had never taken part in conservation activities organized by outside groups.

The researchers highlight the value of combining local ecological knowledge with scientific monitoring to inform appropriate conservation responses. They recommend simple monitoring tools, practical training, and financial support to strengthen community participation, alongside integrated coastal zone management, marine protection, and climate adaptation programs at the provincial and national levels.

Empowering communities with the knowledge, tools, and resources to participate could help develop conservation strategies that are better suited to the diverse conditions of Indonesia’s coral reef ecosystems. “Successful mitigation requires partnerships involving communities, government support, NGO training, and academic assistance,” Prof. Jompa noted.

 

 

Reference
Title of original paper: Comparative study of science-based monitoring methods for coral reef ecological disaster mitigation in the Spermonde Archipelago
Journal: Anthropocene Coasts
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s44218-026-00128-x

 

About Hasanuddin University, Indonesia
Hasanuddin University (Universitas Hasanuddin or Unhas) is one of Indonesia’s largest autonomous universities, located in Makassar. Established on September 10, 1956, and named after Sultan Hasanuddin of the Gowa Kingdom, the university has grown into a major center for higher education with 18 faculties, including medicine, engineering, law, agriculture, and natural sciences. Its origins date back to 1947 with an economics faculty linked to the University of Indonesia. Today, Unhas focuses on advancing science, technology, arts, and culture, with a strong emphasis on the Indonesian Maritime Continent, aiming to develop innovative and globally competitive graduates.
Learn more, here: https://www.unhas.ac.id/about/

 

About Professor Jamaluddin Jompa from Hasanuddin University, Indonesia
Prof. Dr. Ir. Jamaluddin Jompa, M.Sc. is the Rector of Hasanuddin University and a Professor of marine biology and ecology at the Faculty of Marine and Fisheries Sciences. He received his PhD from James Cook University, Australia, in 2003. His previous positions include Dean of the Postgraduate School at Hasanuddin University, Director of the Center for Coral Reef Studies, Executive Secretary of COREMAP II, and Director of the Research and Development Center for Marine, Coastal and Small Islands. His research focuses on coral reefs, marine ecology, and coastal ecosystems.

 

Funding information
This research was supported by the Directorate of Research, Technology, and Community Service grant, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, and Technology, Indonesia under the BIMA Fundamental Basic Research scheme under main contract number 069/C3/DT.05.00/PL/2025 and derivative contract number 02209/UN4.22/PT.01.03/2025.

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Journal

Anthropocene Coasts

DOI

10.1007/s44218-026-00128-x

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Comparative study of science-based monitoring methods for coral reef ecological disaster mitigation in the Spermonde Archipelago

Article Publication Date

1-Dec-2026

 

Gender and Entrepreneurship: Navigating Barriers, Building Inclusion and Shaping the Future

New book examines gender, inclusion and the future of entrepreneurship

Bentham Science Publishers

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Bentham Books announces the release of Gender and Entrepreneurship: Navigating Barriers, B`uilding Inclusion and Shaping the Future, a timely scholarly resource exploring how gender, social structures, institutional factors and economic conditions shape entrepreneurial participation and success.

About the Book
 

Entrepreneurship plays an important role in innovation, employment and economic development, yet gender-based inequalities continue to influence access to opportunities, finance, markets, networks and leadership. Gender and Entrepreneurship examines these challenges while highlighting pathways toward more inclusive and equitable entrepreneurial ecosystems.

Drawing on perspectives from entrepreneurship, management, gender studies and economic development, the book explores gender theories, access to finance and markets, socio-cultural norms and stereotypes, leadership, resilience, mentorship, networking and the impact of digital transformation on entrepreneurial ventures.

The book also examines policy and institutional frameworks that promote inclusion and presents practical strategies for fostering equity, innovation and sustainable economic growth. By combining scholarly perspectives with contemporary examples, it provides a balanced understanding of the challenges and opportunities shaping gender-inclusive entrepreneurship.

Key Highlights
 

• Gender theories and their implications for entrepreneurial participation
• Barriers to finance, market access, leadership and business opportunities
• The influence of social norms, stereotypes, mentorship and professional networks
• Digital transformation and emerging opportunities for women entrepreneurs
• Policy and institutional strategies for building inclusive entrepreneurial ecosystems

Readership: Researchers, academics, undergraduate and postgraduate students, policymakers, business leaders, entrepreneurship support organizations and development practitioners.

About the Editors
 

Afia Nyarko Boakye, Ralph Nyadu-Addo, Sycil Ayesu Gyimah and Lady Rachel Akosua Lundgren bring together multidisciplinary perspectives on gender, entrepreneurship, management, inclusion and economic development, providing a comprehensive scholarly examination of the challenges and opportunities associated with gender-inclusive entrepreneurship.

Book Link: https://bit.ly/3UgN79X

DOI: 10.2174/97988988171141260101

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DOI

10.2174/97988988171141260101 

 

Starting Alzheimer’s treatment earlier increases benefits to patients and society

University of Southern California

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Years lived at each dementia stage and value of lifetime benefits.

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Credit: USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics

Key findings:

• A new treatment slowing Alzheimer’s is projected to generate $104,900 in lifetime social value per person; value is 32% higher if started two years earlier
• Annual Medicaid cost offsets from treatment total 13-17%, depending on timing of initiation
• Investments in early detection could connect patients to treatment earlier, delivering greater value across society

New treatments that can slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease could provide significant lifetime benefits to patients and society, with even greater benefits when initiated earlier, according to new research from the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics.

The treatments, which target buildup of amyloid plaques in the brain, appear to be more effective when started earlier in the disease course. However, their use has been limited due to coverage restrictions, costs, and the challenges of identifying and monitoring eligible patients, among other factors.

New Schaeffer Center modeling estimates that Alzheimer’s treatment donanemab (marketed as Kisunla) could extend life expectancy and time spent living independently, with value accruing to patients, care partners and society more broadly. The estimated value is increased by one-third if treatment were started two years earlier.

“New therapies and diagnostic tools are making it possible to alter the course of Alzheimer’s disease, but they come with considerable costs. Our research suggests that investments in early detection could help ensure that patients start treatments when they’re more likely to provide the greatest benefit to patients and society,” said lead author Jack Chapel, a USC Schaeffer scholar and assistant research professor at the USC Price School of Public Policy.

The study was published Oct. 7 in Alzheimer's & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer's Association.

Closing the diagnosis gap

Alzheimer’s and related dementias will cost the United States an estimated $818 billion in 2026, and the economic impact is expected to grow as the population ages. A better understanding of the long-term benefits of Alzheimer’s treatments—and how benefits may differ based on when treatment is initiated—could inform decisions on how to sustainably expand access with the greatest impact.

On average, Alzheimer’s is diagnosed 3.5 years after symptoms first appear, leaving a critical opportunity for earlier intervention. Several blood-based biomarker tests approved by the FDA in the past year, as well as new digital cognitive assessments, could make it easier to identify Alzheimer’s in earlier stages and connect patients to treatment.

Modeling the lifetime benefits

To project the lifetime benefits of treatment with donanemab, researchers leveraged a dynamic microsimulation model from the Schaeffer Center’s U.S. Cost of Dementia Project, a federally funded effort to quantify dementia’s total costs. They modeled three scenarios for a group that closely resembled participants of a pivotal Phase 3 trial: receiving treatment during the trial, starting treatment two years earlier (but still after symptoms usually emerge), and receiving no treatment. The estimates reflect the value of health and economic benefits and do not include the costs of the drug or the screening and monitoring needed to deliver it.

The researchers drew from large national health surveys and studies of dementia progression to model lifetime cognitive status with a commonly used scoring measure. For the two treatment groups, they modeled a 29% slowing of disease progression, matching the trial results for donanemab compared with a placebo after 18 months.

Treatment group: Compared with those not receiving treatment, people treated during the clinical trial were projected to live about .3 years longer and have 1 year less with severe dementia, while gaining .37 disability-free years and .63 years spent in the community.

The gains translated to a lifetime societal value of $104,900 per person. About half came from improved health-related quality of life ($52,300), followed by reductions in unpaid caregiving ($23,800) and medical cost offsets ($22,200) that largely accrued to Medicaid. On an annual basis, Medicaid costs were reduced by about $1,640, or 13%.  

Earlier treatment: Starting treatment two years sooner slows cognitive decline earlier in the disease process, increasing gains across all measures and raising the lifetime value by 32% to $138,300. Earlier treatment could have an even stronger slowing effect, as emerging evidence suggests. The value rose 71% above the clinical trial group to $179,400 when incorporating these potentially larger treatment effects.

Because these treatments are so new, there is uncertainty about how long their benefits will last. In a conservative scenario where the effect lasts only four years rather than the rest of the patient’s life, the lifetime value was cut in half ($49,100), but earlier treatment still produced 15% more value ($56,400).

The value of further advances

Researchers also modeled the potential lifetime benefits of future treatments that could further slow Alzheimer’s progression. There is an extensive pipeline of potential Alzheimer’s treatments, with more than 150 drugs undergoing clinical testing.

A hypothetical treatment that slows progression by 50% would generate an estimated lifetime social value of $208,700 to $276,700, depending on when treatment is initiated. For a treatment that completely halts progression, the estimated value more than doubles, ranging from $530,000 to $648,300.

“As therapies and diagnostic tools continue to improve, the case for finding and treating people sooner only gets stronger,” Chapel said. “Every year between the first symptoms and a diagnosis is value lost for patients, their families and the public programs that ultimately pay for dementia care.”

About the study
Other authors are Bryan Tysinger, Hossein Pourmand, Dana Goldman and Paul Aisen of USC.

This analysis was supported by the Schaeffer Center, which receives funding from foundations, government agencies, individuals, and corporations—including, Eli Lilly & Company and other companies that may have interests in Alzheimer’s treatments. Please see the study for author disclosures.

 

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Journal

Alzheimer s & Dementia

DOI

10.1002/alz.71819

Article Title

The value of timely treatment with anti-amyloid therapy for Alzheimer’s disease

Article Publication Date

7-Oct-2026

 

University of Stirling secures £2.4M grant for major aquaculture project

University of Stirling

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Professor Margaret Crumlish

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Credit: University of Stirling

The University of Stirling has secured £2.4m for a major international project to tackle antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Vietnam’s pangasius catfish industry.

Led by Professor Margaret Crumlish from Stirling’s world-renowned Institute of Aquaculture, the study will bring together experts from a diverse range of fields to develop practical alternatives to antibiotic use.

The 48-month transdisciplinary study explores the causes and complexity behind the AMR issues recognised in freshwater environments, including those participating in aquaculture - which has increased with the industry’s intensification - alongside understanding barriers to alternative approaches being adopted.

The study will work with farmers to develop a novel roadmap for future research, focused on providing an effective solution to the problem which presents an increasing challenge to a vital food supply for millions of people across Southeast Asia.

Principal Investigator, Professor Margaret Crumlish of the University of Stirling, explained: "AMR is widely recognised as one of the most pressing global challenges facing society and is categorised as a ‘One Health’ issue because it affects human, animal and environmental health.

"Aquatic environments play an important role in the development and transmission of antimicrobial resistance, and aquaculture both depends on and interacts with these ecosystems.

"By focusing on Vietnam's pangasius catfish sector, one of the world's most important freshwater aquaculture industries, we have an ideal opportunity to understand how antimicrobial resistance develops, how it impacts production, and how more sustainable approaches to disease management can be achieved.

"When antibiotics stop working effectively in aquaculture, particularly in freshwater systems in South East Asia, farmers often have few alternatives, but they trust antibiotic products, even if they are not effective.

"This leads to rapid AMR development that can impact human, environmental, and animal health.  That's a major concern. Our project has been designed to create a novel research roadmap and practical framework that can be adapted and used in different countries facing similar challenges.

"What makes the study unique is its transdisciplinary approach. Alongside experts in aquaculture, microbiology, veterinary medicine and environmental science, we have researchers from the social sciences and humanities working together throughout the entire project.

"By co-creating solutions with farmers, policymakers, industry leaders and other stakeholders over the next 48 months, we aim to ensure that any interventions are both scientifically robust and practical to implement."

The new grant builds directly on previous research investigating novel fish vaccines including a recent trial at the University's new National Aquaculture Technology and Innovation Hub (NATIH) facilities. The transdisciplinary grant will utilise data from these studies and share with stakeholders to co-create viable solutions and promote better antibiotic stewardship for freshwater aquaculture. 

A coalition of UK government partners is investing more than £54 million through 18 new research and innovation projects coordinated through UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) to help prepare for future epidemics, tackle antimicrobial resistance and accelerate the development of next-generation animal vaccines.

Co-funding for the projects comes from partners including the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), and the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC).

UKRI Executive Champion for Tackling Infections and BBSRC Executive Chair, Professor Anne Ferguson-Smith, said: “This investment reflects UKRI's central role in delivering government priorities and our long-standing commitment to convening and working with partners across government to fund vital One Health research into human, animal, and plant health.

“By pooling expertise from across the research and innovation ecosystem in the UK and globally, we can tackle related infectious disease challenges in a more coordinated way to get ahead of emerging biological threats and help protect people, animals, plants and the environment, both in the UK and internationally. Ultimately, it will advance knowledge, improve lives, and drive growth.”

Chief Scientific Adviser at the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and Chief Executive Officer of the NIHR, Professor Lucy Chappell, added: “In our interconnected world, we must recognise that the health of humans, animals, and the wider environment are inherently linked and interdependent. Similarly, diseases don’t respect borders, and countries must work together to address our greatest health threats.

"By taking a One Health approach and bringing together experts from the UK and around the world, we can identify threats earlier, strengthen resilience, and deliver better health outcomes for the public.”

Work will be carried out in partnership with the University of Glasgow, University of Sydney, Can Tho University and Vietnam National University.

As well as colleagues Dr Darren Green and Dr Noel Juvigny-Khenafou from the Institute of Aquaculture at Stirling, Professor Crumlish will work with Dr Andrew Hoyle from Stirling’s School of Computing, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Dr Saihong Li from the School of Communication, and Dr Till Stowasser from Stirling Business School.