Thursday, February 05, 2026

The Epstein Ledger

Redactions, Revelations, and the Unfinished Dossier


LONG READ


This essay reviews the documents released over the past month. All previous reporting on this topic can be found in my Decoding Epstein.

“I didn’t see it myself, but I was told by some very important people that not only does it absolve me, it’s the opposite of what people were hoping, you know, the radical left,” claimed President Donald Trump on January 31, 2026.

He was responding to the release of the latest batch of “Epstein Files” from the Department of Justice (DOJ). A day earlier, the DOJ released over 3 million documents as well as recordings and images related to the now deceased convicted sex offender and financier Jeffrey Epstein. Epstein was a shadowy figure whose wealth and influence positioned him at the center of international finance, intelligence, and elite global cooperation.

Contrary to the administration’s claims of absolution, these documents do not undermine the standing allegations; in fact, they strengthen them. The caches released since December 2025 reveal Epstein as a man whose appetite for sex and power allowed him to cultivate a network of relationships that, when coupled with his communications, place him at the intersection of global intelligence gathering, blackmail, and high-level financing for the world’s most powerful individuals.

Strategic Obstruction: The War Over Redactions and Missing Records

While the White House was legally mandated to release these documents by December 19, 2025, under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, a bill Trump signed into law, the rollout has been defined by delays and controversy. The administration’s “compliance” with the law has been questionable at best. Despite White House claims that this batch fulfills their legal obligations and concludes the file dumps, millions of documents remain hidden. The DOJ is estimated to hold at least three million more pages, and Senator Ron Wyden continues to fight for the release of critical financial records. Furthermore, files from the Epstein estate have already begun leaking to outlets like Drop Site News, much to the chagrin of the Trump Administration.

To make matters worse, on Christmas Eve 2025, the DOJ abruptly announced the discovery of “a million more documents” related to the Epstein case. This reversal came just after the department had publicly claimed that nothing in the existing files warranted further investigation. Reporting indicates that the news of the discovery left President Trump furious, as the sudden influx of evidence directly contradicted the administration’s narrative that the matter was settled.

The release process itself has been a catastrophic failure of basic media literacy and data security. Internal emails revealed the DOJ was scrambling for holiday volunteers to handle redactions, leading to thousands of failures that have resulted in death threats against survivors. The administration initially claimed they were withholding files to protect survivors; however, the reality has been the opposite. Numerous survivors’ names were left unredacted, and explicit images, including ones where survivors are nude, were released without protection. As a result, survivors report receiving death threats.

In some instances, “redacted” text could be revealed simply by copying and pasting the document from one file to another, as the government failed to properly flatten the digital files. In perhaps the most embarrassing oversight, Drop Site News managed to access a batch of files early simply by guessing the government’s insecure web address. The administration’s haphazard approach suggests either a profound lack of technical competence or a deliberate attempt to muddy the waters of a historic transparency effort.

The Blackmail Engine: Extortion as a Tool of Global Policy

The portrait of Jeffrey Epstein that emerges from the latest document release is one of a man who integrated sexual predation with sophisticated methods of international influence. It is now clear that Epstein leaned on a devoted coterie of employees and associates to facilitate his operations. Most notably, British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell worked to secure a steady supply of minor victims, often enlisting the victims themselves to recruit other girls under the false pretense of providing massages. His Amazon purchases, including orders for schoolgirl uniforms and specialized medical devices, appear to substantiate these predatory behaviors.

Beyond his sexual crimes, Epstein’s personal history suggests a deep preoccupation with surveillance and tradecraft. His purchase history includes an unusual fixation on optics, with records showing he ordered seven pairs of high-end binoculars to his Manhattan home, which was equipped with cameras, over a five-year period. This interest in monitoring others is reinforced by a 2017 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) informant claim that Epstein employed a personal hacker. The hacker in question was allegedly an Italian citizen who specialized in developing offensive cyber tools and zero-day exploits for mobile devices, which many observers view as evidence that Epstein was actively collecting digital intelligence on his powerful associates. Adding to the aura of international espionage, investigators discovered a fraudulent Austrian passport in Epstein’s safe that featured his photograph under the alias Marius Robert Fortelni and listed his residence as Saudi Arabia.

While it remains uncertain whether these surveillance tools served as the foundation for a strategic global blackmail scheme, the files provide concrete evidence of Epstein engaging in direct attempts at extortion. The files provide a concrete example involving Microsoft’s Bill Gates, whom Epstein reportedly attempted to extort regarding an extramarital affair. Draft emails discovered in the files show Epstein writing to himself as if preparing messages for Gates. Within the files, a draft resignation letter from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation appears to serve as a tool for extortion, citing the procurement of medication for Gates to manage the consequences of sexual encounters with a Russian women. Another draft accused Gates of ending their friendship while repeating lurid claims about a sexually transmitted infection. While spokespeople for Gates have denied these allegations, it has been widely reported that these ties contributed to the dissolution of his marriage to Melinda French Gates.

Perhaps even more damning is an exchange from 2015 in which Epstein reached out to a Russian contact for advice on how to neutralize a woman who was allegedly attempting to blackmail a group of powerful businessmen in New York. Epstein provided the woman’s specific address writing

“how are you , I need a favor , there is a russian girl from moscow. , she is attempting to blackmail a group of powerful biznessman in New York, it is bad for business for everyone involved. she arrived new york saturday of last week staying at the Four Seasons. on 57 street. . Suggestions?”

This interaction has led many to view Epstein not just as a financier, but as a point person for intimidating or silencing potential whistleblowers.

The documents also reignite the controversy surrounding Epstein’s death, which was officially ruled a suicide but has been plagued by questions regarding malfunctioning cameras and the absence of cellmates. The files reveal that at the time of his death, investigators did not believe the note he left was a suicide note. Furthermore, the timeline regarding when cameras stopped and started working remains riddled with inconsistencies between government statements and the recently released footage.

Complicating the record further are several fraudulent documents that surfaced during the investigation, including a fake suicide video found on the dark web and a letter purportedly written by Epstein to serial child molester Larry Nassar. The letter, which referenced the President’s own preferences, was postmarked three days after Epstein’s death and dismissed by the DOJ as a forgery.

Ultimately, the most significant challenge to the suicide conclusion is the evidence of Epstein’s mindset in his final days. Documents show that less than two weeks before he died in 2019, his attorneys met with Manhattan federal prosecutors to discuss a potential resolution of his case. An FBI summary explicitly states that on July 29, 2019, the defense and prosecution discussed the possibility of Epstein’s cooperation. This revelation suggests that at the very moment Epstein was considering sharing what he knew about his powerful network, the security systems meant to keep him alive suffered a total and convenient collapse. This has led some, such as Epstein’s brother to conclude that suicide was not the cause of death.

The Web of Prestige: Academia, Entertainment, and Intellectual Blackmail

The newly released documents extend far beyond Epstein’s immediate circle, revealing a sprawling network of influence that reached into the highest echelons of academia, entertainment, and international diplomacy. In the academic world, records confirm contact with Harvard University’s Steven Pinker and Martin Nowak, while Case Western Reserve University physics professor Lawrence Krauss reportedly sought Epstein’s advice on responding to sexual misconduct allegations. Epstein also maintained surprisingly candid interactions with Harvard’s Larry Summers—whose recent resignation from the OpenAI board and leave from Harvard followed the release of files detailing their close correspondence. In these exchanges, Summers expressed personal frustrations to Epstein regarding the shifting Democratic Party landscape and his children’s preference for Bernie Sanders’ platform. Perhaps most bizarrely, records show that Epstein sent DNA test kits to both Noam Chomsky and Woody Allen, a detail that adds a strange layer of personal biological inquiry to his long-standing intellectual associations.

The entertainment and sports industries were similarly entangled in this web of correspondence. Brett Ratner, the director behind a recent documentary on Melania Trump, appears in the files through a photograph with a young girl, while Casey Wasserman, the head of the Los Angeles Olympics organizing committee, is shown to have exchanged provocative emails with Maxwell. In these messages, Wasserman openly expressed his desire to see Maxwell in leather attire, and she in turn offered him a massage designed to drive a man wild. Though Wasserman has since expressed deep regret and claimed his interactions occurred long before her crimes were known, the emails highlight the casual nature with which Epstein’s inner circle integrated into elite social circles.

Similarly, New York Giants co-owner Steve Tisch appears in hundreds of documents from 2013 that suggest Epstein was facilitating introductions between Tisch and various women. These exchanges included Epstein providing personal assessments of the women’s appearances and backgrounds, with Tisch participating in discussions about their professional status and trustworthiness.

Media and journalism were not immune to this influence, as evidenced by Epstein’s relationship with author Michael Wolff. The files suggest that Epstein acted as an informal editor for Wolff, specifically refining passages meant to damage Trump’s public image by framing his real estate business as a vehicle for money laundering. In a contradictory twist, another email from Epstein to Wolff claimed that Trump had visited Epstein’s home numerous times while a specific woman worked at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property, yet Epstein noted that Trump “never got a massage.” The files also shed light on the priorities of media figures like CBS contributor, physician and author Peter Attia, who allegedly prioritized a meeting with Epstein over his own wife’s pleas to join her at the hospital where their infant son was being treated for a life-threatening illness.

The Fixer’s Reach: Bridging British Royalty and Middle Eastern Diplomacy

 

The documents further illuminate Epstein’s role as a high-level international fixer for royalty and world leaders, revealing ties that persisted long after he became a registered sex offender. Emails suggest that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor invited Epstein to Buckingham Palace for private dinners shortly after Epstein’s 2010 release from house arrest, and the files include new photographs that appear to show the former prince on all fours over an unidentified woman. This pattern of elite access extended to the highest levels of British and European politics, most notably involving former cabinet minister Peter Mandelson.

The latest revelations led to Mandelson’s resignation from the Labour Party on February 1, 2026, following the release of bank records from Epstein’s JP Morgan accounts. These documents appear to show three separate payments of $25,000 referencing Mandelson, alongside evidence that Epstein wired thousands of pounds to Mandelson’s husband for educational expenses in 2009. While Mandelson has claimed he has no recollection of these sums and questioned the authenticity of the records, the files also include a compromising image of him in his underwear standing next to a woman whose face is redacted. Mandelson has stated he cannot place the location or the circumstances of the photograph, which surfaced just months after he was dismissed from his role as ambassador over his historic links to the financier.

Similarly, the fallout has reached the Slovak political sphere, where Miroslav Lajčák has also resigned his position following the disclosure of his correspondence with Epstein. The files show Epstein and Lajčák bantering about women while discussing high-level diplomatic meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The files revealed an odd exchange from 2012 in which the Crown Princess of Norway, Mette-Marit, asked Epstein, who was then a registered sex offender, for parenting advice about showing her 15-year-old son naked women. Mette-Marit told Epstein he was “very charming” before inquiring whether it was “inappropriate for a mother to suggest two naked women carrying a surfboard for my 15 yr old sons wallpaper?”

In addition to association, Epstein had sway with Europeans as well. Documents show Epstein using his contacts to facilitate meetings for associates such as Steve Bannon with European government leaders. Other documents show Epstein scheduling meetings by email with the secretary general of the Council of Europe, Thorbjөrn Jagland. These interactions suggest that Epstein functioned as a shadowy conduit for some of the most powerful people on earth, leveraging financial favors and personal relationships to ensure his place at the center of global institutional power until his final days.

The American Nexus: Intelligence Assets and Political Entanglements

The documents also shed new light on the institutional failures and personal entanglements that allowed Epstein to operate with impunity for decades. Documents show how his legal team continued to exert influence over federal prosecutors long after his initial plea deal was finalized, maintaining a blurred line between professional and personal relationships with the very attorneys assigned to his case.

This atmosphere of mutual familiarity may help explain the actions of former U.S. Attorney Alex Acosta, who famously shifted from a confident pursuit of a full indictment to an unusually secretive and favorable plea agreement for Epstein, widely referred to as a sweetheart deal. Reporting indicated that Acosta claimed in 2016 or 2017 that the government forced him to make the sweetheart deal because he was told Epstein was an intelligence asset, something he denied in 2025. However, the latest batch of files include a 2007 prosecution memo that shows a detailed case that was never pursued in court, raising persistent questions about the external pressures that may have derailed the original federal investigation.

Epstein’s role as an international intermediary is further detailed in records showing his attempts to broker high-level connections between former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who served as the head of Aman, the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate from 1983 to 1985, and former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Michael Hayden. Epstein also expressed concern regarding the existence of government records detailing his relationship with the CIA. To address this, he initiated an information request with the CIA to determine if any records existed “that might reflect an open or otherwise acknowledged Agency [CIA] affiliation existing from 5 November 1999… to 25 July 2011.”

Audio from 2013 reveals Epstein attempting to persuade Barak to collaborate with Palantir, the data-analytics giant co-founded by the influential and often controversial Peter Thiel. In a December 17, 2018, email exchange, Epstein and Barak discussed their perceived associations with Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad:

Epstein: unfortunately, not. &nbs=; you should make clear that i dont work for mossad. 🙂

Barak: Yo= or I?

Epstein: that I dont 🙂

These geopolitical ties are complicated by confidential human source reports that attorney Alan Dershowitz, Sheldon Adelson, Sean Hannity, and Epstein all collaborated together with Mossad. Documents reveal that the informant alleged that attorney Alan Dershowitz was viewed as a figure controlled by Israeli interests and backed by figures like Sheldon Adelson. According to this federal informant, Dershowitz’s eventual shift in support toward Trump was seen not as a political evolution but as a calculated alignment with the preferences of the Israeli government. The files also suggest that influential media figures like Sean Hannity shared similar financial backing from the same billionaire circles. The informant claims that Maxwell and Epstein were not billed for the work performed by Dershowitz’s office.

Internal White House dynamics were also touched by Epstein’s orbit, specifically through his surprisingly close relationship with Bannon. It has been known for a long time that Bannon was helping produce a documentary aimed at rehabilitating Epstein’s public persona before he died. The files include hours of never-before-seen video from that documentary, which among other things show Epstein struggling to directly answer whether or not he is the devil. Nonetheless, the recent documents reveal a much deeper relationship between Bannon and Epstein. The two shared numerous text messages covering everything from television preferences to specific White House policies, even after Bannon’s departure from the first Trump administration. In these private exchanges, they frequently mocked President Trump, with Epstein suggesting that Trump should be termed a “re-grifter” rather than a regifterBannon countered with his own derisive monikers, referring to President Trump as a “stable genius” and remarking that he was “out of gas” in response to reports about his limited work schedule.

The released documents have proved particularly damaging for current and future administration officials who previously sought to distance themselves from the financier. In 2025, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had publicly claimed to be so disgusted by a 2005 meeting with Epstein that he vowed never to be in the same room with him again. However, 2012 emails show Lutnick and his wife meticulously coordinating the logistics of docking their 188-foot yacht at Epstein’s private island for a scheduled lunch. The next day, a message from Epstein to Lutnick read “Nice to see you.” Similarly, Kevin Warsh, a prominent pick for the Federal Reserve, attended a large event alongside Epstein.

Elon Musk appears in the files as having once said he “declined repeated invitations” to visit Epstein’s island. However, the documents suggest he tried multiple times to meet Epstein there, going so far as to bemoan on Christmas morning how he could not wait to get away from his children and join Jeffrey. Additionally, while Musk claimed he had no knowledge of Epstein touring SpaceX, emails reveal that Musk confirmed the tour of SpaceX and Epstein thanked him for it.

Thiel and Musk are not the only members of the ‘PayPal Mafia’ appearing in the Epstein files; they also reveal a relationship between Epstein and Democratic Party megadonor and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman. Hoffman has publicly expressed “deep regret” for his past association with Epstein, which involved multiple interactions and a trip to Epstein’s private island, Little St. James, in 2014. These documents clarify that Hoffman’s involvement was tied to fundraising for the MIT Media Lab, culminating in his presence at the Lab’s controversial 2016 “Forbidden Research” symposium. At this event, Hoffman was the primary funder for the launch of the $250,000 “Disobedience Award,” a prize introduced during a schedule that notably included a panel on “Sexual Deviance” and the use of technology to address pedophilia. Internal MIT reports further reveal that the Lab’s director sought Hoffman’s advice on whether to invite Epstein, who was at that time a registered sex offender, to this very conference. While separate logs from the period show that Epstein had even come into possession of Hoffman’s passport.

The shadow of the investigation continues to loom over former presidents as well, with flight records and damning photos indicating that Bill Clinton remained firmly within Epstein’s social sphere. The ongoing refusal of both Bill and Hillary Clinton to comply with congressional subpoenas has created a significant rift within the Democratic Party, pitting an older establishment against younger members demanding accountability.

The Mar-a-Lago Dossier: Surveillance, Redacted Crimes, and the Greene Defection

In addition to former President Clinton, current President Donald Trump is in the new files as well. It was known previously that the Trumps were close with Epstein and Maxwell, but the documents reveal a deeper look with Melania writing a fawning email about Epstein and Maxwell in 2002. Other documents reveal that Trump flew on Epstein’s private jet at least eight times between 1993 and 1996, a much higher frequency than previously acknowledged. These flights often included Maxwell and, in one instance, a 20-year-old passenger whose identity remains undisclosed.

The most unsettling entries in the DOJ’s disclosures involve a specific tranche of investigative materials that point to a landscape of extreme violence and intimidation. In August 2025, federal officials, whose names are redacted, assembled a structured summary, essentially a spreadsheet, of more than a dozen tips and unverified allegations specifically regarding Trump and his interactions with Epstein. The day the files were released, this file was briefly taken down by the DOJ. Among the entries are reports that Trump engaged in the forcible rape of young women, made threats against underage girls, and maintained properties where sex crimes and coercion occurred. The summary claims that these tips were later determined to be false. Another person reported that Trump raped her when she was 13 years old. Another said that after being sexually assaulted by Epstein she was “presented” to Trump by Ghislaine Maxwell for a private tour of his Mar-a-Lago property. One particularly harrowing tip included in the files involves an allegation from a woman who claimed Trump witnessed the murder and disposal of her newborn baby in Lake Michigan during a trafficking ordeal in the 1980s. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has dismissed these entries as unfounded or “sensationalist” claims submitted by the public.

The files also reveal that Trump was monitoring the Epstein story during his first term. At the time, his administration was monitoring the travel and flight records of Julie K. Brown, the primary investigative journalist who broke the Epstein scandal open. This surveillance of a member of the press has raised grave concerns about the use of state resources to track those investigating the financier’s inner circle.

In his second term, Trump has relied on the courts to simmer down public disclosure. This includes a billion-dollar defamation suit by Melania Trump against journalist Michael Wolff. Wolff has since countersued, essentially arguing that the administration is using “Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation” or SLAPP tactics to silence his reporting on Epstein’s efforts to leverage information against the President. The lawsuits continue as on February 1, Trump threatened to sue Wolff.

The internal fallout from these files has exposed deep rifts even among the President’s most loyal allies. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has publicly broken with the administration, claiming that Trump yelled at her for demanding full transparency because his “friends” would get “hurt” by the revelations.

The Unfinished Ledger: Why the Epstein Narrative Remains Broken

The recent disclosures and the reporting they have sparked continue the unsettling pattern of the Epstein saga, ultimately providing more questions than answers. While the files confirm that the government identified ten indicted co-conspirators, the complete list remains shielded from the public eye. Of these individuals, only three names were released without redaction: retail magnate Leslie Wexner; French modeling agent Jean-Luc Brunel, who died in a Paris jail cell in 2022 while awaiting trial; and Ghislaine Maxwell. This lack of transparency is compounded by Maxwell’s recent court filings, in which she claims that at least twenty-five other accomplices secured secret settlements with the federal government to avoid prosecution.

When Epstein died, he left behind a significant fortune amassed during a decades-long ascent from high school math teacher to the financial confidant of the global elite. Two days before his death, Epstein put his fortune into a trust, making it more difficult for survivors to access. His last will and testament, included in the new documents, offers an evolving list of power players who remained part of his life until the very end. The orchestration of his estate suggests a man who may have accumulated wealth specifically to serve the interests of his associates, an arrangement he seemingly delivered upon in his final acts.

The legal fallout, however, is now moving beyond the individual to the institutions that facilitated his rise. Just last week, a federal judge ruled that a lawsuit brought by Epstein’s victims against Bank of America can proceed, allowing claims that the bank knowingly benefited from and facilitated sex trafficking to move toward discovery.

There is a grim irony at the heart of the current document dump: in a supposed democracy predicated on transparency, it has proven far easier for a citizen to find the names and compromising images of survivors than the names of high-level accomplices.

The fact that the government has struggled to protect the privacy of survivors while successfully shielding Epstein’s most powerful enablers tells you everything you need to know about this case. It is this fundamental imbalance, the exposure of the vulnerable and the protection of the powerful, that ensures the public will remain deeply interested, frustrated, and profoundly skeptical of the official Epstein narrative.

Nolan Higdon is a Project Censored national judge, an author, and university lecturer at Merrill College and the Education Department at University of California, Santa Cruz. Read other articles by Nolan, or visit Nolan's website.
I SPY WITH MY LITTLE EYE

FBI document: Epstein trained as spy under Ehud Barak and worked for Mossad



February 5, 2026 
Middle East Monitor


Former Israeli Prime Minister and leader of Israel Democratic party, Ehud Barak speaks at the Party’s Election campaign event in Tel Aviv on July 17, 2019. [Gili Yaari/NurPhoto via Getty Images]

Jeffrey Epstein “was close to the former Prime Minister of Israel, Ehud Barak, and trained as a spy under him,” according to a 2020 FBI document based on direct reporting from a confidential human source (CHS). The revelation adds further weight to long-circulating allegations that Epstein, a convicted child sex trafficker, was compiling Kompromat on behalf of Mossad.

The document, dated 19 October 2020, details conversations in which the source, who had personal contact with figures in Epstein’s circle, outlines how Epstein was involved in intelligence activity coordinated with Mossad.

The CHS recounts multiple phone calls between Alan Dershowitz — Epstein’s lawyer and Harvard law professor — and Epstein. Following these calls, the document states, Mossad would call Dershowitz to debrief. The source “took notes” during these conversations and concluded that the debriefing process was part of a coordinated intelligence operation.

READ: Jeffrey Epstein was not a lone rogue predator; he was an asset… (Part 1)

Dershowitz himself is quoted as having said he would have joined Mossad if he were younger. The CHS believed Dershowitz was “co-opted” by Mossad and “subscribed to their mission.”

In totality, the document presents Epstein as a co-opted Mossad agent, a view the source reinforces explicitly. The CHS stated they were “convinced that Epstein was a Mossad agent” and that his relationship with Barak and his handling by Dershowitz served this broader intelligence role.

These assertions, backed by contemporaneous notes and phone call observations, now represent some of the clearest direct testimony placing Epstein within an organised foreign intelligence apparatus, rather than as a lone criminal figure.

Nicaragua’s Economy “Weathers Multiple Shocks” Including US Attacks


The International Monetary Fund’s new assessment of Nicaragua’s economy labels it as “strong” no fewer than 56 times. But it also shows how key factors in the country’s growing prosperity – export earnings, trade relations and remittances (money sent by Nicaraguans living abroad) are vulnerable to US attacks. The IMF points out that US sanctions – more appropriately known as unilateral coercive measures – have severely restricted the help the country gets from multilateral bodies like the World Bank.

Nicaragua’s relationship with the IMF is an odd one. On the one hand, the institution’s annual “Article IV” reports are consistently positive, praising the way that the country’s economy “weathered well the multiple shocks” of the 2018 coup attempt and the 2020 pandemic. Since 2008, the IMF hasn’t had to save Nicaragua from economic collapse and hasn’t tried to impose the “structural adjustment” programs that have been justly criticized when used elsewhere.

On the other hand, when Nicaragua’s government did ask for temporary assistance during those two crises (2018 and 2020), it only received help during the second one. Two years ago, I asked the government’s then finance minister, Ivan Acosta, why the IMF had said “no” when 2018’s attempted coup had dealt such a blow to the country’s economy. He explained that while officials confirmed that Nicaragua qualified for emergency assistance, they also advised that any request would be turned down by the IMF’s US-dominated board. At the time, legislation was passing through the US Congress imposing sanctions on Nicaragua. These required US officials to block any funding by international bodies (such as the IMF) whenever they had the power to do so. Acosta was therefore quietly asked by IMF staffers not to make any loan requests, so they wouldn’t be turned down.

Other institutions like the World Bank bowed quickly to US pressure and halted their projects, even those aimed at Nicaragua’s poorest communities. Both the IMF and (belatedly) the World Bank later helped the country with loans during the pandemic and in the aftermath of two devastating hurricanes in 2020, but only with modest amounts. While IMF loans are no longer needed, World Bank funding would significantly strengthen the country’s poverty-reduction programs, but it has again been halted. Acosta estimated that this costs Nicaragua up to $600 million annually in lost development finance. As he put it, a country whose income per head is (currently) about $2,900 annually is being penalized by countries (the US and its allies) whose per capita income is as much as $80,000.

Despite these obstacles, on January 20 the IMF’s annual report on Nicaragua again praised the government’s macroeconomic management and highlighted GDP growth of close to 4% in 2025, higher than the Latin American average, reflecting a strong recent recovery. “The Nicaraguan economy has weathered multiple shocks since 2018 thanks to appropriate macroeconomic and financial policies,” it said. The government shows “prudence” in its fiscal, monetary, and financial policies which will “contribute to maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, preserving fiscal sustainability, and strengthening policy protection mechanisms.” The IMF also remarked on the country’s significant liquidity reserves, low inflation, declining public debt-to-GDP ratio, good performance in collecting taxes, growing financial surpluses and well-capitalized banks.

Government anti-corruption measures were also acknowledged, including a new legal framework which allows immediate removal of public officials for mismanagement of government funds. In recognition of these measures, four years ago Nicaragua was removed from the “grey list” of countries being monitored by the Financial Action Task Force (the anti-corruption body set up by G7 countries).

Nicaragua’s relative strength can be seen from the table comparing it with its neighbors: despite being the region’s lowest-income country, it fares better than Honduras in productivity, has low debt and the lowest cost of living (using an established international index). Indeed, a prosperous Nicaragua is key to regional stability: it receives 28% of its imports from Central America and contributes 16% of its exports. It is also a recognized bulwark against regional organized crime and drug trafficking.

Country

Population
(million)

GDP US$
(billion)

Productivity
(GDP/hours
worked)

Percentage debt to
GDP

Cost of living index

Costa Rica

5.1

95

27.5

74

52.9

El Salvador

6.4

35

11.8

59

39.6

Guatemala

19

113

15

29

40.4

Honduras

11

37

7.8

38

36.6

Nicaragua

7

20

9.3

39

34.2

Panamá

4.7

86

43.6

65

45.5

Source: Data compiled by Tortilla con Sal.

Yet the picture painted here would be unrecognizable to anyone relying on Nicaragua’s right-wing opposition media. One of the best known, Confidencial, has the country’s debt costs so high as to squeeze public budgets, criticizes costly borrowing terms on recent loans and warns of “uncertainty” about Nicaragua’s economy in 2026. In October 2025, right-wing outlet La Prensa warned that Nicaragua’s economy is at risk and has “few options to maneuver.” In fact, as the IMF points out, Nicaragua has recently been repaying debt more quickly that it is taking on new liabilities.

Even so, Nicaragua’s economy could be vulnerable to US attacks or policy changes in three main ways.

First, its exports, which continued to grow in 2025, are heavily dependent on trade with the US despite Trump’s recent tariffs and Nicaragua’s attempts to diversify its markets. When they reach the US border, Nicaraguan products not protected by the regional trade agreement (CAFTA) are subject to an 18% tariff (exemptions include gold, beef and coffee). The IMF notes that many producers have been able to absorb these additional costs and remain competitive, but Washington plans to impose even higher tariffs on some goods in 2027 and higher still in 2028. These hikes in tariffs will apply to Nicaragua but not to its neighbors.

Legislation in the US Congress would, if approved, even threaten Nicaragua with exclusion from the CAFTA treaty, although this would require the agreement of the other member countries. The IMF urges Nicaragua to diversify its export markets more rapidly, to mitigate these threats. Of course, this is exactly what the government is aiming to do.

Second, remittances from Nicaraguans living abroad are a very significant contributor – around a quarter – to Nicaragua’s annual income (the same applies in Honduras and El Salvador). This could change rapidly if migrants now in the US are deported or return to Nicaragua voluntarily in significant numbers. The IMF speculates that the recent growth in remittances was fueled by US-based Nicaraguans, encouraged to migrate by Biden, anticipating they would soon be obliged to “go home” by Trump. This year they also face a 1% tax on the money they send. Even so, after dipping in 2026, the IMF expects remittances to continue to grow.

Third, while the IMF notes that Nicaragua is still eligible for loans from multilateral bodies such as the World Bank, in practice these continue to be blocked by US sanctions. A vital exception is CABEI, the Central America Bank for Economic Integration, which continues to fund projects in Nicaragua despite vigorous attempts by the US to stop it. The IMF indicates that CABEI, together with bilateral loans from China and other countries, will be Nicaragua’s main sources of external funding for future development projects.

The US legislation referred to earlier also calls for Washington to attempt to block further CABEI loans. It is not clear how this could be done, because the US is not a member of CABEI, but if it were successful it would completely cut off Nicaragua’s access to multilateral funding sources, an extraordinary position for one of the hemisphere’s lowest-income countries.

As well as weathering “multiple shocks” since 2018, the IMF analysis suggests that “strong fundamentals should help Nicaragua withstand headwinds from ongoing shifts in the global policy landscape.” Though expressed diplomatically, this is a clear reference to the Trump administration’s recent threats. It is testimony to the resilience of the Sandinista government and its management of the economy that Nicaragua is well-placed to face them.

John Perry is based in Masaya, Nicaragua and writes for several independent media. Read other articles by John.

 

Questions raised in Turkish parliament over lack of progress with BYD’s $1bn EV factory investment

Questions raised in Turkish parliament over lack of progress with BYD’s $1bn EV factory investment
The signing ceremony for the plant investment held in Istanbul in July 2024, with the attendance of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan (centre). / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews February 5, 2026

Turkey’s Minister of Industry and Technology Mehmet Fatih Kacir has said that the government is closely monitoring the progress of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD’s planned $1bn factory investment in the western province of Manisa.

Responding to a parliamentary question, Kacır stated that the project remained under active supervision within the framework of Turkey’s investment incentive legislation, with oversight and compliance checks being carried out in full.

The inquiry was raised by opposition Republic People’s Party (CHP) lawmaker Sevda Erdan Kilic, who noted that BYD had pledged to establish a production facility in the Manisa Organised Industrial Zone and was granted incentives, including tax reductions such as special consumption tax relief, to do so. However, as she pointed out, despite 18 months having passed since the announcement, no tangible construction work has begun and no production timeline has been shared with the public.

In his response, Kacir emphasised that the investment by BYD, the world’s number one EV maker, is supported under Turkey’s project-based incentive system, which defines the scope, minimum requirements, project schedule and investor’s responsibilities and commitments.

He underlined that how the investment initiative aimed to introduce next-generation vehicles and technologies to Turkey, while benefitting from state support mechanisms.

Kacir stressed that if the investment was not completed as planned, sanctions outlined in the incentive regulations would apply. “These measures are valid for the BYD project as well. In addition, safeguard mechanisms ensure that our national interests are fully protected,” he said.

In permitting Chinese EV makers to set up production plants overseas, Beijing has been anxious to ensure that the companies do not transfer sensitive technological knowhow to foreign countries, but instead rely on assembly lines that put together shipped parts made in secure environments.

 

Indonesia flags nearly $59 trillion in suspected illegal gold mining

Indonesia flags nearly $59 trillion in suspected illegal gold mining
/ Jingming Pan - Unsplash
By bno - Surabaya Office February 5, 2026

Indonesia’s Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (PPATK) has submitted intelligence on suspected illicit gold mining funds worth IDR992 trillion (around $59 trillion) to law enforcement authorities, as the government steps up efforts to curb financial crimes in the extractive sector, Indonesia Business Post reports.

PPATK head Ivan Yustiavandana said investigators are already working with the data, indicating that the cases may move closer to prosecution.

“The information is now being processed by investigators. We are supporting them so the cases can proceed to the prosecution stage,” Ivan told reporters at the House of Representatives (DPR) complex on February 3.

Between 2023 and 2025, PPATK detected IDR185.03 trillion in transactions believed to be directly connected to illegal gold mining activities. These findings are part of 27 analytical reports and two intelligence briefs examining environmental and financial crimes in the mining sector, with a combined transaction value of IDR514.47 trillion.

The transaction patterns point to suspected illegal mining operations across multiple regions, including Papua, West Kalimantan, Sulawesi, North Sumatra and Java. Ivan did not specify how many mining sites are believed to be involved.

He also declined to confirm whether state-owned mining company PT Aneka Tambang is linked to the suspected fund flows.

In a separate development, the Forest Area Enforcement Task Force has imposed administrative fines on hundreds of palm oil and mining firms found to be operating unlawfully within designated forest zones. Authorities have warned that companies failing to cooperate could face criminal proceedings.

The task force has summoned 32 mining companies: seven have agreed to pay fines, 15 have lodged formal objections, two have not responded, and eight are still awaiting scheduled hearings.

Officials have also recovered 8,800 hectares of land previously used for illegal mining activities involving nickel, coal, quartz sand and limestone. However, the potential scale of the problem is significantly larger. Forestry Ministry data shows suspected illegal mining clearings covering 191,790 hectares, many of which lack mandatory Forest Area Use Approvals.

Attorney General ST Burhanuddin said enforcement actions against illegal palm oil plantations and mining operations could generate IDR142.2 trillion in state revenue in 2026, comprising IDR109.6 trillion from palm oil estates and approximately IDR32.63 trillion from mining activities.

China grants first commercial licences for flying taxis

China grants first commercial licences for flying taxis
China has launched the world's first commercially licensed air taxis as science fiction becomes reality. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin February 4, 2026

China has granted the world’s first commercial licences for autonomous flying taxis, marking a significant milestone in the global push for urban air mobility.

As IntelliNews reported, China is rapidly advancing plans to build a “low-altitude economy” where groceries are delivered to your door by drone and workers can avoid the crowds by taking flying taxis home.

It sounds like science fiction, but the flying cars in movies like Blade Runner are here. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has issued permits to two domestic firms—EHang Holdings and Autoflight—to begin commercial operations using autonomous electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs).


The announcement signals the start of what China has called “a new era in low-altitude economy” with ambitions to lead in a sector still in experimental stages elsewhere. Chinese planners are preparing the groundwork for a business that could generate up to CNY2 trillion ($280bn) in annual output as soon as 2030, Urban Land reports.

Guangzhou-based EHang received a type certificate for its EH216-S model in October 2023, and was awarded its production certificate in April 2024. On December 28, the CAAC granted the company an operational permit, allowing it to provide passenger-carrying flights in designated airspaces.

“This is not only a milestone for EHang but also a significant step for the global eVTOL industry,” said Huazhi Hu, founder and chief executive of EHang, in a statement.

Autoflight, headquartered in Shanghai, also confirmed it had received approval for its V400 Albatross cargo drone, with plans to expand to passenger services under its subsidiary Autoflight X.

China's regulators have moved more swiftly than their counterparts in the US and Europe, where companies such as Joby Aviation, Lilium and Volocopter are still undergoing flight testing and certification. The US Federal Aviation Administration has indicated that commercial operations for passenger-carrying eVTOLs are unlikely before 2028.

The CAAC has been actively promoting what it terms the “low-altitude economy” as part of its broader push to boost advanced manufacturing and next-generation mobility. According to state media, the market for low-altitude transport could reach CNY1tn ($139bn) annually by 2030.

Both EHang and Autoflight plan to roll out pilot services in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with additional deployments expected in tourism zones and island transport routes.

“We’re proud to take the lead in commercialising safe, autonomous air mobility solutions,” said Tian Yu, founder of Autoflight.

The CAAC has yet to clarify the regulatory framework for scaling up operations nationwide, but the approval signals China’s intent to be first to market in the rapidly evolving field of autonomous aviation.

The Aztec empire's collapse shows why ruling through coercion and force fails


Photo by Alyona Yankovska on Unsplash


Jay Silverstein

The Conversation
February 01, 2026 


When Aztec emissaries arrived in 1520 to Tzintzuntzan, the capital of the Tarascan Kingdom in what is now the Mexican state of Michoacán, they carried a warning from the Aztec emperor, Cuauhtémoc.

They cautioned that strange foreigners – the Spaniards – had invaded the land and posed a grave threat. The emissaries requested an audience with the Tarascan ruler, known as the Cazonci, King Zuanga. But Zuanga had recently died, most likely from smallpox brought by the Spaniards.

Relations between the two empires had long been tense. They had clashed on the western frontier since 1476, fighting major battles and fortifying their borders. The Tarascans viewed the Aztecs as deceitful and dangerous – a threat to their very existence.

So, when the emissaries arrived to speak with a king who was already dead, they were sacrificed and granted audience with him in the afterlife. In that moment, the fate of the Aztecs was sealed in blood.

The Aztec empire did not fall because it lacked capability. It collapsed because it accumulated too many adversaries who resented its dominance. This is a historical episode the US president, Donald Trump, should take notice of as his rift with traditional US allies deepens.

Carl von Clausewitz and other philosophers of war have distinguished the concepts of force and power in relation to statecraft. In the broadest sense, power is ideological capital, predicated on military strength and influence in the global political sphere. In contrast, force is the exertion of military might to coerce other nations to your political will.

While power can be sustained through a strong economy, alliances and moral influence, force is expended. It drains resources and can erode internal political capital as well as global influence if it is used in a way that is perceived as arrogant or imperialistic.

The Aztec empire formed in 1428 as a triple alliance between the city-states of Tenochtitlan, Texcoco and Tlacopan, with Tenochtitlan eventually dominating the political structure. The empire exerted force through seasonal military campaigns and balanced this with a power dynamic of sacrificial display, threat, tribute and a culture of racial superiority.

In both its use of force and power, the Aztec empire was coercive and depended on fear to rule. Those subjugated by the empire, and those engaged in what seemed perpetual war, held great animosity and distrust of the Aztecs. The empire was thus built on conquered people and enemies waiting for the right opportunity to overthrow their overlords.

Hernán Cortés, the Spanish conquistador who ultimately brought large parts of what is now Mexico under the rule of Spain, exploited this hostility. He forged alliances with Tlaxcala and other former Aztec subjects, augmenting his small Spanish force with thousands of indigenous warriors.

Cortés led this Spanish-indigenous force against the Aztecs and besieged them in Tenochtitlan. The Aztecs had only one hope: to persuade the other great power in Mexico, the Tarascan empire to the west, to join forces with them. Their first emissaries met an ill fate. So, they tried again.

In 1521, Aztec envoys arrived once more in Tzintzuntzan and this time met with the new lord, Tangáxuan II. They brought captured steel weapons, a crossbow and armour to demonstrate the military threat they faced.

The Tarascan king paid attention. He sent an exploratory mission to the frontier to determine whether this was Aztec trickery or truth. As they arrived at the frontier, they met a group of Chichimecs – semi-nomadic warrior people who often worked for empires to patrol borders.

When told the mission was heading to Tenochtitlan to scout the situation, the Chichimecs replied that they were too late. It was only a city of death now, and they were on their way to the Tarascan king to offer their services. Tangáxuan submitted to the Spanish as a tributary kingdom the following year before being burned to death in 1530 by Spaniards trying to find where he had hidden gold.

Had the Tarascans maintained normal political relations with the Aztecs, they might have investigated the report of the first emissaries. One can imagine how history would be different if, during the siege of Tenochtitlan, 40,000 Tarascan warriors – renowned archers – had descended from the mountains to the west. It is unlikely that Cortés and his army could have prevailed.

American foreign policy

The failings of the Aztec empire were not due to a lack of courage or military prowess. During their battles with the Spanish, the Aztecs repeatedly demonstrated adaptability, learning how to fight against horses and cannon-laden ships.

The failing was a fundamental flaw in the political strategy of the empire – it was built on coercion and fear, leaving a ready force to challenge its authority when it was most vulnerable.

The foreign policy of the US since 2025, when Trump entered office for his second term, has emulated this model. Recently, the Trump administration has been projecting coercive power to support its ambitions for wealth, notoriety and to project American exceptionalism and manifest superiority.

This has manifested in threats or the exercise of limited force, such as tariffs or military attacks in Iran, Syria, Nigeria and Venezuela. Increasingly, other nations are challenging the effectiveness of this power. Colombia, Panama, Mexico and Canada, for example, have largely ignored the threat of coercive power.

As Trump uses American power to demand Greenland, his threats are becoming more feeble. Nato nations are abiding by their longstanding pact with economic and military resolve, with their leaders saying they will not give in to Trump’s pressure. The US is being pushed towards a position where it will have to switch from coercive power to coercive force.

If this course persists, military engagements, animosity from neighbours and vulnerabilities arising from the strength of other militaries, economic disruptions and environmental catastrophes may well leave the world’s most powerful nation exposed with no allies.

Jay Silverstein, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Chemistry and Forensics, Nottingham Trent University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.