PUTINS ID
Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders


Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, delivers a speech in Saint Petersburg

Fri, February 24, 2023

By Andrew Osborn and Caleb Davis

LONDON (Reuters) - Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.

Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, made the comments in a message on his Telegram account exactly a year after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in what it called a "special military operation" to protect Russian speakers and ensure its own security.

Ukraine says it is defending itself from an unprovoked colonial-style war of aggression and has vowed to retake all of its own territory by force, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Medvedev, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, forecast on Friday that Russia would be victorious and that some kind of loose agreement would eventually end the fighting.

"Victory will be achieved. We all want it to happen as soon as possible. And that day will come," said Medvedev. He predicted that tough negotiations with Ukraine and the West would follow that would culminate in "some kind of agreement."

But he said that deal would lack what he called "fundamental agreements on real borders" and not amount to an over-arching European security pact, making it vital for Russia to extend its own borders now.

"That is why it is so important to achieve all the goals of the special military operation. To push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland," said Medvedev.

Poland shares long eastern borders with Ukraine and with Russia's ally Belarus, and a frontier of some 200 km (125 miles) in its northeastern corner with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

Any encroachment on Poland's borders would bring Russia for the first time into direct conflict with NATO. U.S. President Joe Biden pledged in a speech in Warsaw this week to defend "every inch" of NATO territory if it was attacked.

Medvedev, 57, has adopted an increasingly hawkish tone and made a series of outspoken interventions since the war began with some political analysts suggesting he is one of the people that Putin might one day consider as a successor.

(Reporting by Andrew Osborn and Caleb Davis; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

What is China's peace proposal for Ukraine War?
 

 United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Feb. 18, 2023. One year into Russia's war against Ukraine, China is offering a 12-point proposal to end the fighting. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File)

Fri, February 24, 2023 

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — One year into Russia's war against Ukraine, China is offering a 12-point proposal to end the fighting.

The proposal follows China's recent announcement that it is trying to act as mediator in the war that has re-energized Western alliances viewed by Beijing and Moscow as rivals. China's top diplomat indicated that the plan was coming at a security conference this week in Munich, Germany.

With its release, President Xi Jinping's government is reiterating China's claim to being neutral, despite blocking efforts at the United Nations to condemn the invasion. The document echoes Russian claims that Western governments are to blame for the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion and criticizes sanctions on Russia.

At the Munich meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed skepticism about Beijing's position before the plan's release. He said China has provided non-lethal assistance that supports Russian President Vladimir Putin's war effort and said the U.S. has intelligence that Beijing is “considering providing lethal support.” China has called the allegation a “smear” and said it lacks evidence.

WHAT HAS CHINA PROPOSED?

China’s proposal calls for a cease-fire and peace talks, and an end to sanctions against Russia.

China placed responsibility for sanctions on other “relevant countries” without naming them. These countries, it says, “should stop abusing unilateral sanctions” and “do their share in de-escalating the Ukraine crisis.”

Many of the 12 points were very general and did not contain specific proposals.

Without mentioning either Russia or Ukraine, it says sovereignty of all countries should be upheld. It didn't specify what that would look like for Ukraine, and the land taken from it since Russia seized Crimea in 2014.

The proposal also condemns a “Cold War mentality,” a term that often refers to the United States and the U.S.-European military alliance NATO. “The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs,” the proposal says. Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded a promise that Ukraine will not join the bloc before the invasion.

Other points call for a cease-fire, peace talks, protection for prisoners of war and stopping attacks on civilians, without elaborating, as well as keeping nuclear power plants safe and facilitating grain exports.

“The basic tone and the fundamental message in the policy is quite pro-Russia,” said Li Mingjiang, a professor of Chinese foreign policy and international security at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.

DOES CHINA BACK RUSSIA IN ITS WAR ON UKRAINE?

China has offered contradictory statements regarding its stance. It says Russia was provoked into taking action by NATO’s eastward expansion, but has also claimed neutrality on the war.

Ahead of Russia's attack, Xi and Putin attended the opening of last year's Winter Olympics in Beijing and issued a statement that their governments had a “no limits” friendship. China has since ignored Western criticism and reaffirmed that pledge.

Putin has said he expects Xi to visit Russia in the next few months. China has yet to confirm that.

China is “trying to have it both ways,” Blinken said Sunday on NBC.

“Publicly, they present themselves as a country striving for peace in Ukraine, but privately, as I said, we’ve seen already over these past months the provision of non-lethal assistance that does go directly to aiding and abetting Russia’s war effort.”

HAS CHINA PROVIDED SUPPORT TO RUSSIA?

China’s support for Russia has been largely rhetorical and political. Beijing has helped to prevent efforts to condemn Moscow at the United Nations. There is no public evidence it is currently supplying arms to Russia, but the U.S. has said China is providing non-lethal support already and may do more.

Blinken, at the Munich conference, said the United States has long been concerned that China would provide weapons to Russia. “We have information that gives us concern that they are considering providing lethal support to Russia,” he said.

Blinken said he expressed to the Chinese envoy to the meeting, Wang Yi, that “this would be a serious problem.”

NATO's chief said Wednesday he had seen some signs that China may be ready to provide arms and warned that would be it would be supporting a violation of international law.

Russian and Chinese forces have held joint drills since the invasion, most recently with the South African navy in a shipping lane off the South African coast.

Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksii Reznikov expressed doubt about China's willingness to send lethal aid to Russia.

“I think that if China will help them … it will not (be) weaponry. It will (be) some kinds of like clothes,” Reznikov said in Kyiv Monday.

Explainer-What have Russia and China said about peace in Ukraine?


Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with China's top diplomat Wang Yi in Moscow   BEWARE OF LAUGING ADVERSARIES

Thu, February 23, 2023
By Caleb Davis

(Reuters) - China's top diplomat Wang Yi held talks with President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials in Moscow this week amid speculation that the two sides would discuss a Chinese plan to bring about peace in Ukraine after almost a year of war.

Moscow has denied that Wang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed a specific proposal but both sides said they touched on political ways to end the conflict, with Russia welcoming what it called China's "balanced position".

Beijing has accused the United States and the West of fanning the flames of conflict in Ukraine, but it has refused to explicitly endorse Russia's invasion.

WHAT IS CHINA'S PEACE PROPOSAL?

China has said it will set out its position on how to settle the Ukraine conflict through political means in an upcoming paper, which Russian state media say will be published on the one-year anniversary of Russia's "special military operation".

Wang said at last week's Munich Security Conference that the document would reference principles from the United Nations' founding charter and take into account territorial integrity, sovereignty and security concerns.

"I suggest that everybody starts to think calmly, especially friends in Europe, about what kind of efforts we can make to stop this war," Wang said on Saturday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to deliver a "peace speech" on the Feb. 24 anniversary of the invasion, although analysts have cast doubt on whether Beijing's efforts to act as peacemaker will go beyond rhetoric.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday warned China against supplying weapons to Russia. "We haven't seen any supplies of lethal aid from China to Russia, but we have seen signs that they are considering and may be planning for that," he told Reuters.

WHAT HAS UKRAINE SAID?

Ukraine said it was looking forward to hearing China's proposal but that it would need to examine it closely before reaching any conclusions, adding that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had his own plan for peace.

"(Wang Yi) shared with me key elements of the Chinese peace plan," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Tuesday.

"Once we receive the paper we will thoroughly examine it and come with our own conclusions," he said.

Zelenskiy last year proposed his own 10-point peace plan, which calls on Russia to withdraw all its troops from Ukraine and to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Russia still controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine, despite losing swathes of land in major battlefield setbacks last year.

WHAT HAS RUSSIA SAID?

Russia said on Wednesday that it welcomed China taking a more active role in efforts to resolve the conflict.

"When it comes to addressing hot international issues, we and China share much of the same vision," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

Weeks before the invasion, Putin and Xi agreed to a "no limits" partnership, as the two countries seek to counter-balance what they see as attempts by the United States to dominate global affairs.

Meeting Putin on Wednesday, Wang said China was willing to play a "constructive role" to end the Ukraine conflict.

"The Chinese side will, as in the past, firmly adhere to an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis," Wang was quoted in Russian state media as saying.

Putin said Russia's relations with China were "developing" and said Xi would visit Moscow.

WHAT HAS THE WEST SAID?

Beijing's attempts to reach a peace deal and Wang's visit to Moscow have been met with a mixed reaction in the West, which believes Russia's increasing reliance on China make it one of the few countries able to truly influence Moscow.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said China had an obligation to use that influence to seek peace in Ukraine.

"China, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, is obligated to use its influence to secure world peace," said Baerbock, who also met Wang at last week's security conference.

The United States was sceptical, warning that Wang's visit to Russia on the eve of the war's first anniversary was more evidence of Beijing's growing alignment with Moscow.

"China is trying to have it both ways," said U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price.

"China is trying to broadcast and disguise itself in this veneer of neutrality, even as it deepens its engagement with Russia in key ways – politically, diplomatically, economically, and potentially in the security realm as well," he said.

Xi has stood by Putin during the conflict in Ukraine, resisting Western pressure to isolate Moscow.

Trade between the two countries has soared since the invasion, and China is Russia's biggest buyer of oil, a key source of revenue for Moscow.

(Reporting by Caleb Davis; Editing by Nick Macfie)

WW3.0 ONE YEAR LATER

United Nations approves resolution calling for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine



Laura Kelly
Thu, February 23, 2023 

The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday adopted a resolution calling for the Russian military to withdraw from all the territory of Ukraine, in a vote that marked one year since Moscow launched a full invasion of the country.

While 141 countries voted in favor of the resolution, mirroring a similar vote that occurred in the general assembly one year prior, Russia tallied two additional votes in opposition since a U.N. vote on the war in October.

The resolution holds no power to compel Russia to withdraw from Ukraine but is meant to send a political signal of global opposition to Moscow’s actions and demonstrate its isolation.

“Colleagues, this vote will go down in history,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in remarks the day before.


“On the one-year anniversary of this conflict, we will see where the nations of the world stand on the matter of peace in Ukraine.”

The United Nations General Assembly is a key venue for Ukraine and its supporters to build consensus among the world’s nations that Russia is setting a dangerous precedent that can embolden other aggressive nations to violate another country’s borders.

The symbolic votes also allow the U.N. to circumvent a stalemate on action from the body’s Security Council, where any binding enforcement measures can be blocked by Russia’s veto power as a permanent member of the body.

General Assembly votes have been a key barometer of the success of each side of the war to sway international opinion. Moving countries with declared positions of neutrality amid Russia’s war has proven challenging for Ukraine and its major allies, such as the U.S.

This includes an abstention on the vote from China, which has long provided a buffer for Russia at the United Nations. China views Russia’s war in Ukraine with concern but has maintained close ties with Moscow for its own interests, which include competing for superiority on the global stage against the U.S.

South Africa and India were also among the 32 countries that abstained from the vote, pointing to the continued struggle of U.S. diplomats to shift those countries into Ukraine’s column.

India’s Ambassador to the U.N. Ruchira Kamboj said the resolution had “inherent limitations” that compelled their vote of abstention and said key questions need to be answered.

“Can any process that does not involve either of the two sides ever lead to a credible and meaningful solution? Has the U.N. system and particularly its principal organ the U.N. Security Council based on a 1945 world construct, not be rendered ineffective to address contemporary challenges to global peace and security?” she asked.

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Central Asian nations in Russia’s sphere of influence, also abstained.

Seven countries voted against the resolution, titled “Principles of the Charter of the United Nations, underlining, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” including Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Eritrea.

Mali and Nicaragua also voted against the resolution, marking a change for the two countries that had abstained in the vote a year prior.

Ahmed Qureia, top Palestinian negotiator with Israel, dies


FILE - Former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia looks on during an interview with The Associated Press in his office in Abu Dis, near Jerusalem, Monday, April 23, 2012. Qureia, a former architect of interim peace deals with Israel, has died Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023, at age 85.

 (AP Photo/Sebastian Scheiner, File) 

Thu, February 23, 2023

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — Ahmed Qureia, a former Palestinian prime minister and one of the architects of interim peace deals with Israel, has died at age 85.

A key player in the 1993 Oslo peace accords, Qureia witnessed the rise of the dream of Palestinian statehood that surged during the negotiations. But he also saw those hopes recede, with the prospect of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict drifting further than ever. Domestically, Qureia was riddled with corruption charges that tainted his reputation.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confirmed Qureia's death on Wednesday. The cause of death was not immediately made public, but Qureia had been ill for some time with a heart condition.

“Abu Alaa stood in the lead defending the causes of his home and people,” Abbas said in a statement carried by the official Wafa news agency, using Qureia’s nickname.


Born in 1937 in Abu Dis, suburb of east Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank, Qureia joined the Fatah movement in 1968.

He rose quickly through the ranks under the leadership of its founder, late Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, and became a member of its decision-making body, the Central Committee, in 1989. He was also a member of the PLO Executive Committee.

Qureia headed the Palestinian delegation to Oslo, where intensive talks with Israel led to the peace accords in 1993, which created the Palestinian Authority and set up self-rule areas in the Palestinian territories. During ensuing rounds of negotiations with Israelis, he met all Israeli prime ministers who were in office before 2004, including Yitzhak Rabin, Ariel Sharon, Shimon Peres, Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Olmert, and U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

Peace talks have collapsed in the three decades since the accords. Israel has driven up settlement building in the West Bank, and imposed a blockade on the Gaza Strip after the Islamic militant Hamas took power there after it routed forces loyal to Fatah. Violence is again flaring up between the sides, especially in the West Bank.

In a 2013 interview with the Associated Press marking two decades since the Oslo agreements, Qureia said that if he knew then what he knows now he wouldn’t have agreed to the accords.

“With such kinds of blocs of settlements? No. With the closure of Jerusalem? No. Not at all,” Qureia said in an interview at his office in the Jerusalem suburb of Abu Dis.

After the establishment of the PA, Qureia won a seat in the first parliamentary elections in 1996 and chaired the Palestinian Legislative Council.

After Abbas resigned as the PA’s first prime minister in 2003, Arafat replaced him with Qureia. He held the post until 2006, when the militant Hamas group scored a landslide victory in the second Palestinian elections.

During his tenure as prime minister, Qureia was the subject of controversy after reports accused his family of having financial interest in a company that sold Egyptian cement to Israel, which the latter used to build the West Bank separation barrier.

White supremacists behind over 80% of extremism-related U.S. murders in 2022


Rally against guns and white supremacy in front of the White House in Washington


Thu, February 23, 2023 
By Kanishka Singh

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Mass shootings in the United States accounted for most extremism-related fatalities last year in the country with over 80% of those murders committed by white supremacists, data released by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) showed on Thursday.

The advocacy group labeled 25 murders in 2022 as "extremist-related," with 18 of those "committed in whole or part for ideological motives."

Two mass shootings - one in May in Buffalo, New York, wherein an avowed white supremacist fatally shot 10 Black people, and another in November in Colorado Springs wherein five people were killed in an LGBTQ nightclub - accounted for most of the extremist-related murders of 2022, the ADL report showed.

White supremacists commit the highest number of domestic extremist-related murders in most years, but in 2022 the percentage was unusually high: 21 of the 25 murders were linked to white supremacists, according to the ADL report.

"All the extremist-related murders in 2022 were committed by right-wing extremists of various kinds," the ADL report said.

ADL's Center on Extremism reported an overall decrease from 2021 when 33 extremist-related killings were documented. ADL had documented 22 extremist-related killings in 2020.

Human rights groups have raised concerns over white supremacy in the United States in recent years.

President Joe Biden has labeled white supremacy as poison and called on Americans to reject it. In December, he established an inter-agency group to coordinate efforts to counter antisemitism, Islamophobia and related forms of bias and discrimination.

The issue of white supremacy came back into headlines late last year when former President Donald Trump hosted white supremacist Nick Fuentes at his private club in Florida. Trump said the encounter with Fuentes happened inadvertently while he was having dinner with Ye, the musician formerly known as Kanye West.

(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Washington; Editing by David Gregorio)

Extremism-related mass killings spiked in past decade: ADL

Julia Mueller
Thu, February 23, 2023 

Mass killings in the U.S. by people with ties to extreme causes or movements have spiked significantly in the past decade, according to new research from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL).

Of 46 total extremist-related, ideologically-motivated mass killings identified by the ADL’s Center on Extremism in the more than five decades since 1970, 26 have occurred in the last 12 years alone.

The past decade saw at least three times more extremist-linked mass killings in the U.S. than any other 10-year period since 1970. While five were recorded in the first 10 years of the new millennium, 21 were recorded between 2011 and 2020.

Just two years into the tally for the next decade, 2021 and 2022 have already seen five extremist-related mass killings — as many as were seen in total between 2001 and 2010.


The ADL report says mass killings are “one of the largest threats that extremists pose to public safety today” following shootings last year in Buffalo, N.Y., where 10 Black people were killed in a grocery store, and in Colorado Springs, Colo., where five people were killed at an LGBT nightclub.

“Most of these mass killings were committed by right-wing extremists, but left-wing and domestic Islamist extremists were also responsible for incidents … Of particular concern in recent years are shootings inspired by white supremacist ‘accelerationist’ propaganda urging such attacks,” the report reads.

Domestic extremists killed at least 25 people in 12 separate incidents in the U.S. last year — 21 of those 25 murders were linked to white supremacists, which ADL notes as an “unusually high” figure.

US mass killings linked to extremism spiked over last decade


 A group prays at the site of a memorial for the victims of the Buffalo supermarket shooting outside the Tops Friendly Market on May 21, 2022, in Buffalo, N.Y. The number of U.S. mass killings linked to extremism was at least three times higher in the last decade than the total from any 10-year period since the 1970s. That's according to a report released to The Associated Press by the Anti-Defamation League. 

(AP Photo/Joshua Bessex, File)

LINDSAY WHITEHURST
Wed, February 22, 2023 
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of U.S. mass killings linked to extremism over the past decade was at least three times higher than the total from any other 10-year period since the 1970s, according to a report by the Anti-Defamation League.

The report, provided to The Associated Press ahead of its public release Thursday, also found that all extremist killings identified in 2022 were linked to right-wing extremism, with an especially high number linked to white supremacy. They include a racist mass shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York, that left 10 Black shoppers dead and a mass shooting that killed five people at an LGBT nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

“It is not an exaggeration to say that we live in an age of extremist mass killings,” the report from the group's Center on Extremism says.

Between two and seven domestic extremism-related mass killings occurred every decade from the 1970s to the 2000s, but in the 2010s that number skyrocketed to 21, the report found.


The trend has since continued with five domestic extremist mass killings in 2021 and 2022, as many as there were during the first decade of the new millennium.

The number of victims has risen as well. Between 2010 and 2020, 164 people died in ideological extremist-related mass killings, according to the report. That’s much more than in any other decade except the 1990s, when the bombing of a federal building in Oklahoma City killed 168 people.

Extremist killings are those carried out by people with ties to extreme movements and ideologies.

Several factors combined to drive the numbers up between 2010 and 2020. There were shootings inspired by the rise of the Islamic State group as well as a handful targeting police officers after civilian shootings and others linked to the increasing promotion of violence by white supremacists, said Mark Pitcavage, a senior research fellow at the ADL’s Center on Extremism.

The center tracks slayings linked to various forms of extremism in the United States and compiles them in an annual report. It tracked 25 extremism-related killings last year, a decrease from the 33 the year before.

Ninety-three percent of the killings in 2022 were committed with firearms. The report also noted that no police officers were killed by extremists last year, for the first time since 2011.

With the waning of the Islamic State group, the main threat in the near future will likely be white supremacist shooters, the report found. The increase in the number of mass killing attempts, meanwhile, is one of the most alarming trends in recent years, said Center on Extremism Vice President Oren Segal.

“We cannot stand idly by and accept this as the new norm,” Segal said.

CANADA US BORDER
Northern border immigrant death highlights crossing spike


This Feb. 10, 2020 photo shows the headquarters of the U.S. Border Patrol's Swanton Sector in Swanton, Vt. Law enforcement officials say a Mexican immigrant who just entered the United States illegally from Canada collapsed and later died after being confronted by Border Patrol agents on a remote section of the U.S.-Canadian border in northern Vermont. 

(AP Photo/Wilson Ring, File)

WILSON RING
Thu, February 23, 2023

The death of a Mexican man who had just entered the United States from Canada illegally is highlighting the spike in illegal crossings along the border between Quebec and parts of New England, officials say.

The number of illegal border crossers is tiny compared with those entering the country illegally from Mexico, but the death of the man who entered Vermont from Quebec late Sunday marked the area’s first death in recent memory of someone who crossed into the U.S. illegally. His entry took place in an area near Derby Line about 50 miles (80 kilometers) southeast of Montreal.

There have been fatalities of people seeking to cross on the Canadian side of the border. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police, which is responsible for border security in Canada, report their agents have mounted a number of search and rescue operations this winter in the region of people intending to cross into the United States from Canada.

Border officials on both sides of the line have been warning about the dangers to the crossers and those who could be sent to rescue them.


Last year, a family of four Indian nationals died of exposure in Manitoba near its border with Minnesota and North Dakota. In December, a 44-year-old Haitian citizen who had been trying to enter the United States illegally from Canada was found dead in a wooded area near St-Bernard-de-Lacolle, Quebec, not far from Champlain, New York, about 35 miles (56 kilometers) south of Montreal. In April 2019, a Dominican man also died in Canada not far from Champlain.

“As we progress deeper into winter and continue to address the ongoing pace of illicit cross-border traffic, the level of concern for the lives and welfare of our Border Patrol Agents and those we are encountering — particularly vulnerable populations — continues to climb,” the Border Patrol's Sector Chief Patrol Agent Robert Garcia said in a news release this month before the death of the immigrant in Vermont.

RCMP spokeswoman Cpl. Tasha Adams said agents were involved in at least three search and rescue operations in January, including one the weekend of Jan. 28, when the family of a person seeking to cross into the United States called Canadian authorities from the U.S. to report they had lost contact with him in an area just north of the border.

Rescuers later found the man in the Mansonville, Quebec, a short distance west of Derby Line, after tracking him for about 90 minutes through deep snow. He was conscious but suffering from hypothermia and frostbite.

“These are situations that place our officers at risk because of the weather and terrain they trek through to locate these individuals in distress," Adams said in an email.

Statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show that agents in the sector that includes New Hampshire, Vermont and parts of upstate New York apprehended 1,513 illegal border crossers between Oct. 1, 2022 through Jan. 31, 2023, up from 160 in the same period the year before. But the total number apprehended along the entire northern border this fiscal year, 2,227, is a small fraction of those apprehended along the U.S.-Mexican border during that same period, 762,383.

Nevertheless, federal court documents filed in some of the northern border crossing cases in Vermont describe people who legally enter Canada where they pay people to take them to the border. Once they cross into the U.S., they then meet with someone else who takes them deeper into the country.

In the Feb. 19 case that led to the Mexican man's death, court records say Border Patrol agents were notified just before 11 p.m. after a surveillance camera detected possible illegal border crossers in the town of Holland, about 2 miles (3.25 kilometers) east of Derby Line.

Responding agents spotted three men standing by the side of the road about a half-mile (1 kilometer) from the border. Two ran back toward Canada while the third collapsed. He was taken to a hospital, where he was pronounced dead. No cause of death has been released, but the Vermont State Police say the death is not considered suspicious.

At around the same time and a short distance away, Border Patrol agents stopped a car with Connecticut license plates and arrested the passenger and charged her with human smuggling. The woman told agents she had been paid $600 to pick up people she did not know at a hotel, which she could not name.

Agents also apprehended one of the men they say fled back toward Canada when spotted by agents at the side of the road.

THE GREAT REPLACEMENT BEGINS

Israel's outpost approvals boost settlers, deepen conflict


1 / 13
A view of the West Bank Jewish outpost of Givat Harel, Thursday, Feb. 16, 2023. Israel's new ultranationalist government declared last week that it would legalize 10 unauthorized outposts in the occupied West Bank. The rare move intensified the country's defiance of international pressure and opened an aggressive new front of Israeli expansion into the West Bank, which Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war.

 (AP Photo/Sam McNeil)

ISABEL DEBRE
Fri, February 24, 2023 

GIVAT HAREL, West Bank (AP) — One day in the fall of 1998, Shivi Drori, a young farmer fresh out of the Israeli army, brought three trailers to a rugged hilltop deep in the occupied West Bank and began to plant raspberries.

It was an unauthorized settlement in the heart of territory claimed by the Palestinians, but Drori, now 49, said he considered himself to be “in a way, working with the government.”

Today, more than 90 Jewish families live in what has become the thriving village of Givat Harel — full of concrete homes with breathtaking views, a crowded nursery and an award-winning vineyard.

Just down the road is Turmus Aya, a Palestinian village that lost part of its land to the nearby Shilo settlement two decades ago. One of the villagers, Amal Abu Awad, 58, has watched her world shrink since the settlers arrived.

She said settlers prevented her late husband from reaching his grazing land and periodically uprooted her olive trees. Last week, masked vandals attacked her house, armed with clubs and knives, shouting insults as they smashed windows and broke her solar panels.

Her seven sons now take turns perching on the roof overnight, watching out for vigilantes.

“This was our land long before they thought to claim it,” she said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new far-right government announced last week it would legalize Givat Harel, along with nine other unauthorized West Bank outposts, boosting settlers' morale and strengthening their hold on the land.

Drori’s village, on a ridge between the Palestinian cities of Ramallah and Nablus, is part of an extensive network of 150 outposts now home to some 20,000 settlers, according to anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now. The outposts appeared over the past three decades, many built at least partially on private Palestinian land, Peace Now says.

While the outposts were established without formal government authorization, they often received tacit government support or even public funding. Over 20% of the outposts, like Givat Harel, have been retroactively legalized, and more are in the pipeline.

Anti-settlement groups and experts describe a steady government effort to entrench Israeli rule over the West Bank and grab more occupied land that Palestinians seek for a future state. Strings of strategically located outposts have changed the landscape of the territory — threatening to make a future Palestinian state little more than a shriveled constellation of disconnected enclaves.

“We see this as a very big move toward annexation,” said Ziv Stahl, director of Israeli rights group Yesh Din. “Cementing the existence of these places blocks any hope for Palestinians to ever get their land back.”

On Monday, days after the government’s outpost approvals triggered widespread condemnation, Netanyahu declared a six-month freeze in recognizing new outposts — part of a U.S.-brokered agreement to avert a diplomatic crisis at the United Nations.

As a result, the U.N. Security Council approved a watered-down statement opposing Israel’s expansion of settlements, derailing a legally binding resolution that would have demanded a halt to Israeli settlement activity.

But Netanyahu made no public commitment to halt settlement construction. On Thursday, his government granted approval for over 7,000 new homes in Jewish settlements across the West Bank. Some of those homes, settlement opponents said, are located in four outposts that remain unauthorized.

Netanyahu's freeze “is meaningless,” said Lior Amihai from Peace Now.

Settlement critics describe a wink-and-nod policy toward outposts traced back to efforts by successive governments to deflect international pressure. Most of the world considers all Israeli settlements — home to some 700,000 people in the West Bank and annexed east Jerusalem — as a violation of international law.

In 1996, Israel pledged it would not establish new settlements as part of peace-making efforts with the Palestinians, but said it would need to keep building in existing ones to accommodate natural growth.

Since then, successive governments have made a distinction between authorized settlements and “illegal” outposts, such as Dori's Givat Harel.

Like many others, Givat Harel straddles both public and private land — including agricultural land belonging to the Palestinian villages of Sinjil and Qaryout, according to Dror Etkes, an anti-settlement activist who follows Israeli land policy in the West Bank.

From the outpost, both villages, along with other Palestinian towns, can be seen nestled in the undulating hills.

Drori dismissed claims of Palestinian ownership, saying the hilltop had long been vacant.

“We were fulfilling government desires, just in a weird way,” he said, speaking at the settlement’s vineyard, which exports some 100,000 bottles a year of locally produced Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon and marquee blends named “Dancing Hills.”

"It’s always hush-hush," he said.

Givat Harel popped up during the first outpost building boom in the 1990s. Encouraged by Ariel Sharon, Israel's foreign minister in 1998 who famously exhorted settlers to “run and grab" Palestinian hilltops, Drori arrived at the scenic ridge.

Sharon even gifted Givat Harel its first water tankers, Drori said. The Ministry of Construction poured money into new houses. The local settler council installed electric towers, paved roads and piped water to the homes. In a sign of legitimacy, Israeli soldiers guarded the front gate.

Neighboring Palestinians, who could only obtain power from solar panels and routinely faced home demolitions because they lacked building permits in the Israeli-controlled part of the West Bank, warily eyed the outpost’s fresh paint and irrigated gardens.

Drori says he's a pioneer willing to live in a hostile land promised by God. As for the Palestinians, he said, “If you want to stay here, you have to get used to the Israeli government.”

A 2005 government report revealed widespread collusion among officials to illicitly divert state funds to unauthorized outposts. Its author, Talia Sasson, called for the immediate removal of outposts on private Palestinian land. Yet no action was taken against more than 100 outposts she identified.

Over the years, the United States and other Israeli allies decried settlements as an obstacle to peace. To avoid international censure, Israel repeatedly promised to dismantle the rogue outposts — but only two major ones were evacuated. Others were strategically registered as new neighborhoods of established settlements.

Now, settlers find their closest allies at the highest government levels. On Thursday, Netanyahu’s new coalition officially granted Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a settler leader, authority over settlement construction.

Drori said Smotrich, a long-time friend, prayed and celebrated at Givat Harel the night of the recognition decision.

“Things will really change here for the good,” Drori said, describing his dreams to build an elementary school and expand the synagogue.

Smotrich and other far-right ministers plan to spend billions expanding and investing in settlements. Rights groups warn this will deepen the conflict with the Palestinians and lead to more bloodshed.

Down an unpaved dirt road in Turmus Aya, Abu Awad fixed her eyes on the hilltop overlooking her home. Last month settlers tried to set fire to a nearby house, burning the car in the driveway. Then last week came the attack on her home.

Police said they arrested two suspects over the arson attack. Palestinians, who are prosecuted in military courts with an extremely high conviction rate, have long complained about impunity enjoyed by settlers, who are charged, if at all, in civil ones.

“They cut the electricity so it was pitch black,” Abu Awad said. “In the dark, they could do whatever they wanted.”

___

Associated Press writers Tia Goldenberg in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Sam McNeil in Turmus Aya, West Bank, contributed to this report.

Israeli pro-settler minister formally gains West Bank powers


Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attends a cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem

Thu, February 23, 2023
By Dan Williams

JERUSALEM (Reuters) -A far-right Israeli cabinet minister formally gained responsibilities over Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank on Thursday that he said included bringing their legal status closer to that of communities within Israel.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich wields a supervisory role for settlers in the Defence Ministry as part of his coalition deal with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, prompting increased U.S. focus on Israel's West Bank policies.

A 14-point statement issued by Smotrich after he agreed on a division of roles with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant included the assertion that "legislation on all (settlement) civilian matters will be brought into line with Israeli law".

Asked to elaborate, a Smotrich spokesperson said: "Equal application of relevant laws - on labour, the environment, et cetera - that are legislated in Lesser Israel."

"Lesser Israel" is a term used by ultranationalists like Smotrich - himself a settler - who seek annexation of the West Bank, a biblical and strategic area captured in a 1967 war.

"All settlement is illegal and any attempt by Israel to legalise or annex these settlements is rejected and is a violation of international resolutions," said Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesperson for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

The United States has reiterated its decades-old calls for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians and called for restraint after a surge in violence in the West Bank, which the Palestinians want as the core of a future state.

Washington has also urged Israel not to expand settlements, which most world powers deem illegal.

Smotrich said he would now also have "total responsibility" over zoning, surveys and sales of West Bank lands for settlers, who number around a half-million among 3.1 million Palestinians.

Confirming the Smotrich-Gallant agreement, Netanyahu said it was pursuant to the coalition deals.

Netanyahu said in 2019 that he would annex West Bank settlements - alarming the West and prompting the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to forge ties with Israel a year later in exchange for the prime minister shelving the territorial plan.

The platform of Smotrich's Religious Zionism party calls for advancing West Bank settlement in the face of "a complex U.S. administration" by focusing dialogue on "the extent of sovereignty Israel will assert and the scale of construction and retroactive authorisation (of unsanctioned settler outposts)".

If formal annexation is not possible due to U.S. opposition, it adds, "de facto assertion of sovereignty should be pursued".

(Additional reporting by Ali Sawafta; Writing by Dan Williams; Editing by Nick Macfie and Mark Potter)

Israel approves over 7,000 settlement homes, groups say







Horses walk in a farm belonging to a Palestinian family, in front of Har Homa, an Israeli settlement in east Jerusalem that Israel considers a neighborhood of its capital, Thursday, Feb. 23, 2023. 

(AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

JOSEF FEDERMAN
Thu, February 23, 2023 

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s far-right government has granted approval for over 7,000 new homes in Jewish settlements in the West Bank, settlement backers and opponents said Thursday. The move defies growing international opposition to construction in the occupied territory.

The announcement came just days after the U.N. Security Council passed a statement strongly criticizing Israeli settlement construction on occupied lands claimed by the Palestinians. The United States, Israel’s closest ally, blocked what would have been an even tougher legally binding resolution, with diplomats saying they had received Israeli assurances of refraining from unilateral acts for six months.

The new approvals took place during a two-day meeting that ended Thursday and appeared to contradict those claims. The U.S. has repeatedly criticized Israeli settlement construction, saying it undermines hopes for a two-state solution with the Palestinians, but taken no action to stop it.

Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog group that attended the meeting, said a planning committee granted approvals for some 7,100 new housing units across the West Bank.

The group said the committee scheduled a meeting next month to discuss plans to develop a strategic area east of Jerusalem known as E1. The U.S. in the past has blocked the project, which would largely bisect the West Bank and which critics say would make it impossible to establish a viable Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Lior Amihai, the group's incoming director, said some 5,200 housing units were in the early stages of planning, while the remainder were approved for near-term construction. He also said construction was approved in four unauthorized outposts.

Earlier this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said he had pledged not to legalize any more wildcat outposts. He made the promise after retroactively legalizing 10 existing outposts earlier this month.

The Israeli government is “spitting on the face of the U.S., only a few days after announcing that they committed to them that there would be no advancement of settlements in the near future,” said Peace Now.



The United States criticized the decision. “We view the expansion of settlements as an obstacle to peace that undermines the geographic viability of a two-state solution,” said a National Security Council Statement. But it gave no indication that the U.S. was prepared to act.

Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, appealed to the United States to intervene. “The American side is required to stop this violation, which will not lead to any peace or stability in the region,” he said.

The planned construction is likely to add to the already heightened tensions following an Israeli military raid that killed 10 Palestinians in the West Bank city of Nablus on Wednesday.

The international community, along with the Palestinians, considers settlement construction illegal or illegitimate. Over 700,000 Israelis now live in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem — territories captured by Israel in 1967 and sought by the Palestinians for a future independent state.

Netanyahu’s new coalition, which took office in late December, is dominated by religious and ultranationalist politicians with close ties to the settlement movement. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a firebrand settler leader, on Thursday was officially granted Cabinet-level authority over settlement policies.



Smotrich had promised earlier this month a major settlement push. His office declined to comment Thursday, but settler representatives, who also attended the planning meeting, celebrated what they said were new approvals.

Yossi Dagan, a settler leader in the northern West Bank, welcomed the retroactive approval of 118 homes in “Nofei Nehemia,” an outpost in the northern West Bank, after a 20-year struggle. “Great news for Samaria, for settlement and for the entire nation of Israel,” he said, using the biblical name for the region.

Shlomo Neeman, chairman of the Yesha settler’s council, declared the approvals “a tremendous boost.” Neeman is also mayor of the “Gush Etzion” settlement bloc near Jerusalem, where settlers said hundreds of new homes were approved.

The decision marks one of the largest approvals of settlement construction in years. In comparison, some 8,000 units were approved in the previous two years, according to Peace Now.

“It's very big,” said Amihai.

___

AP correspondent Zeke Miller contributed reporting from Washington.

UK

Costs Continue To Rise For Hinkley Point Nuclear Megaproject

Editor OilPrice.com
Wed, February 22, 2023 

For close to a decade, Great Britain’s Hinkley Point C nuclear power project has served as the go-to punching bag for anti-nuclear activists. Sure enough, the gift that keeps giving has furnished still another reason to be chary of big nuclear projects.

Background for those not in the know. The current Hinkley Point nuclear project was the brainchild of British energy planners in the early 2000s. Their goal was to build another big nuclear plant at an existing site. Several actually. French state-controlled EDF took on the task with big British energy supplier Centrica as a minority owner. But Centrica soon backed out due to the escalating costs. EDF brought in a Chinese state company as a replacement partner. The UK government signed an agreement guaranteeing that the unit would collect a generous price for power generated (an insanely high price according to one critic at the time). In 2016, the project commenced with an estimated cost of £16-17 billion. Oilprice readers will not be surprised that these costs kept rising. In February 2023, EDF estimated that the final cost would be close to £33 billion ($40 billion), a 100% increase versus the initial estimated cost to completion. The Chinese partner may not agree to further investments beyond those initially agreed to so EDF could be exposed to even higher costs. With the completion date set for 2027, should we expect more increases?

The news stories cite inflation as a primary reason for the cost increases. But the UK’s construction price index rose 40% between 2016 and 2023, while the estimated cost of the nuclear plant almost doubled. One distinguished economist noted that the plant would have cost far less if the government had financed it, but that is another matter.

Hinkley Point is really a colossal miscalculation of risk management. Start with this statistic. The Hinkley Point project investment to date equals roughly one-fifth of the enterprise value of EDF. There are 56 other nuclear plants in EDF’s portfolio. One of the lessons learned by most US utilities after the Three Mile Island accident was that big nuclear plants and relatively small electric utilities are not a good match. In technical terms, the single asset concentration risk is too high. One might argue that EDF is big enough to take the chance, but that is clearly not so.

Then there is the matter of whether the British government worked out its aims and the risks of the various solutions. Why did the UK need this nuclear project? To protect against the insecurity of foreign energy supplies? Wind turbines, solar and domestic natural gas would do that. Or was it the main goal of policy makers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? In this at least they may prove successful but there are much cheaper alternatives. Consider as an alternative weatherproofing all those damp and cold council houses which were designed to be drafty due to earlier pandemics and worries about gas safety. That would have saved a lot of energy and reduced the need for the project. Or was this another legacy project of the Tories’ whose main desire was to protect Britain from the labor militancy of British coal miners whose last bitter, year long strike ended in 1985? From what we can tell, the UK government simply wanted a new nuclear power generating station period—more likely for national prestige—and not a discussion of alternatives, or the risks incurred by builders, or the financial consequences imposed on consumers by this decision.

This brings us to our final point. Hinkley Point C is a classic giant project, a category of construction brilliantly analyzed by British analysts in the 1980s. It is a huge effort that will take years to complete, requires a guess at market demand years from the date of inception, and once complete and in service will have a big impact on the market all at once when completed. In addition, this project involves many different owners and contractors, domestic and international, plus multiple national governments and requires the owner/builder to finance a project whose failure might have disastrous financial consequences for it. In other words, the project entails taking not only many risks but big ones. So why didn’t they consider alternatives first before plunging in?

The latest Hinkley Point nuclear cost re-estimate just underlines the need to find alternatives to large gigawatt-scale nuclear stations. They all have similar characteristics to Hinkley Point C. And consider that EDF is one of the most experienced nuclear companies, operators, and builder, so the problem does not lie with them alone. Relatively unique, giant construction projects are almost always difficult to complete on time and within budget. (This is even true for big hydroelectric projects.) That’s the main message. And one more reason to consider small modular reactors as well as exhibit proper skepticism when making cost comparisons. Cost estimates don’t seem too reliable there either. But with a small plant, the errors should be manageable relative to the size of the builder or to the market,

Years ago, a legendary power engineer explained that large-scale electric power generating plants are always the right choice for utilities as long as one can accurately predict their costs, duration of construction, and condition of the market at the time of completion. Unfortunately, there is always an energy expert or government official who thinks this time is different and learns the hard way—as Hinkley Point C’s seemingly never-ending saga demonstrates.

By Leonard Hyman and William Tilles for Oilprice.com

Japanese Americans won redress, fight for Black reparations










Kathy Masaoka poses with her daughter, Mayumi, and her grandson, Yuma, outside her home in Los Angeles on Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023.

 (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

JANIE HAR
Thu, February 23, 2023 

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — When Miya Iwataki and other Japanese Americans fought in the 1980s for the U.S. government to apologize to the families it imprisoned during World War II, Black politicians and civil rights leaders were integral to the movement.

Thirty-five years after they won that apology — and survivors of prison camps received $20,000 each— those advocates are now demanding atonement for Black Americans whose ancestors were enslaved. From California to Washington, D.C., activists are joining revived reparations movements and pushing for formal government compensation for the lasting harm of slavery's legacy on subsequent generations, from access to housing and education to voting rights and employment.

Advocating for reparations is “the right thing to do,” said Iwataki, a resident of South Pasadena, California who is in her 70s. She cited cross-cultural solidarity that has built up over decades.

Black lawmakers such as the late California congressmen Mervyn Dymally and Ron Dellums played critical roles in winning the Civil Liberties Act of 1988, which formalized the government's apology and redress payments.

Last Sunday marked the 81st anniversary of President Franklin D. Roosevelt signing an executive order that allowed the government to force an estimated 125,000 people — two-thirds of them U.S. citizens — from their homes and businesses, and incarcerate them in desolate, barbed-wire camps throughout the west.

“We want to help other communities win reparations, because it was so important to us," Iwataki said.

After stalling for decades at the federal level, reparations for slavery has received new interest amid a national reckoning over the 2020 police killing of George Floyd. Amid nationwide protests that year, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation that established a first-in-the-nation task force to address the topic of slave reparations.

Other cities and counties have since followed, including Boston, St. Louis, and San Francisco, where an advisory committee issued a draft recommendation last year proposing a lump-sum payment of $5 million apiece for eligible individuals.

In December, the National Nikkei Reparations Coalition, alongside more than 70 other Japanese American and Asian American organizations, submitted a letter calling on the Biden administration to establish a presidential commission.

Japanese American activists in California are studying the landmark report issued by California's task force — and plan to reach out to college students, churches and other community groups to raise awareness about why Black reparations is needed — and how it intersects with their own struggle.

Reparations critics say that monetary compensation and other forms of atonement are not necessary when no one alive today was enslaved or a slave owner, overlooking the inequities today impacting later generations of Black Americans.

Retired teacher Kathy Masaoka of Los Angeles, who testified in 1981 for Japanese American redress and in 2021 in favor of federal reparations legislation, says they are just beginning to educate their own community about Black history and anti-Black prejudice.

She said that starting conversations in her community is “undoing a lot of ideas that people have” about American history and the case for reparations, said Masaoka, 74.

San Francisco attorney Don Tamaki, who is Japanese, is the only person appointed to California’s nine-member task force who is not Black.

At meetings, he shared how critical it was for organizers to arrange for former detainees to tell their stories to national media outlets. Redress advocates had to make hard decisions though, such as agreeing to legislation that denied reparations to an estimated 2,000 Latin Americans of Japanese descent who were also incarcerated.

There is no equivalence to the experiences of the Japanese American and Black American communities, Tamaki said, but there are similar lessons, such as the need for a massive public education campaign.

Only 30% of U.S. adults surveyed by the Pew Research Center in 2021 supported reparations for slavery, 77% of whom were Black Americans. Support among Latinos and Asians was 39% and 33%, respectively, and white Americans had the lowest rate of support, at 18%.

Some advocates said that the idea of reparations for the World War II incarceration camps was once considered outlandish. But many young, third-generation Japanese Americans were inspired to mobilize from civil rights and ethnic pride movements, including the Black Panther Party and the Brown Berets, who promoted Chicano rights.

Some advocates were outraged by — and threatened to boycott — hearings set up by a 1980 federal commission on Japanese internment, called it a delaying tactic. But the testimonies that came out of public hearings the following year served as a turning point.

For the first time, many survivors shared stories that even their families didn’t know, educating not only the younger generation but the broader American public.

“There was not a dry eye in the house at those hearings,” said Iwataki, who worked with the National Coalition for Redress/Reparations to arrange transportation to the hearings, as well as meals and translators, for former detainees.

Many young Japanese Americans went from frustration with their grandparents and parents for not fighting back to understanding how vulnerable they were, said Ron Wakabayashi, who was then national director of the Japanese American Citizens League. The average age of second-generation Japanese Americans who were incarcerated in the camps was only 18, he said.

“Probably the more important thing that we got out of that was the generational healing, and the restoration of our identity,” said Wakabayashi, 78.

The commission found no military necessity for the camps, saying the detentions stemmed broadly from “race prejudice, war hysteria and a failure of political leadership,” according to a report issued in 1983.

President Ronald Reagan signed the Civil Liberties Act of 1988, providing living survivors with a formal apology and $20,000 each for the “grave injustice” done to them. It would cost the U.S. government about $1.6 billion.

Throughout the process, activists said, the Congressional Black Caucus remained a steadfast supporter of reparations. Then-Rep. Dymally authored a reparations bill in 1982 and later, provided his staff and office support so that advocates could lobby other members of Congress.

Another California congressman, Rep. Dellums, delivered a searing speech on the House floor of being a 6-year-old boy watching as his best friend, a Japanese American boy of the same age, was taken away to the camps.

A year after Reagan signed Japanese reparations into law, the late Congressman John Conyers introduced a bill to consider slavery reparations, named after the promise of 40 acres and a mule that the U.S. initially made to freed slaves. The bill has gone nowhere.

Dreisen Heath, an advocate for Black reparations, plans to travel from her home in the Washington, D.C. area to California in coming months to join artist and writer traci kato-kiriyama, whose parents were incarcerated as children, in leading workshops and educational forums.

They hope to engage young Japanese American and Black American students in the current movement.

“Nothing ever worthwhile in this country has ever happened without intergenerational, multiracial (coalition) building,” said Heath. “I see the Japanese American community, and by extension the Asian American community, indispensable to realizing reparations for Black people.”

Experts predicted a wheat shortage after Russia invaded Ukraine. Why didn't it happen?



Michelle Cheng
Thu, February 23, 2023 

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February of last year, experts at various outlets warned shipments of wheat could be cut off, which could spur shortages of the grain. The shortages would then lead to higher prices for pantry staples, from flour to pasta to bread. Together, Russia and Ukraine export more than a quarter of the world’s wheat.

Most wheat is imported by countries with limited production capabilities, and the largest growth markets for wheat imports are North and sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

But the prediction of a global wheat shortage did not come to full fruition. Ukraine harvested 20 million tons of wheat last year, which was about 25% below the average level. The decline in wheat exports from Ukraine was balanced out by an increase in production elsewhere, said Monika Tothova, an economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The total wheat production in 2022 increased globally due to higher exports from countries like Canada and Russia, which had a few years of above-average production.

In addition, wheat shipments made their way out of Ukraine. Under the July agreement, the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea allowed the shipments of commercial food exports from three Ukrainian ports. The United Nations (UN) estimates that the parties’ decision in November to extend the agreement contributed to a 2.8% drop in global wheat prices. Negotiations will start this week on extending the agreement.
How the invasion of Ukraine led to fears of a global wheat shortage

When the war broke out, it wasn’t clear how wheat shipments would reach the growth markets, said Tothova. So wheat prices skyrocketed, which creates problems for countries that depend on imports. (In fact, wheat prices were rising even before the war due to pandemic-related supply chain snags and extreme weather.) To date, wheat prices have dropped from their highs but remain elevated. “Globally you do not have shortages, it doesn’t mean, however, that there are no problems on a country level,” she said.

datawrapper-chart-8s04Z

Several of the wheat import-dependent countries, including Congo, Ethiopia, and Sudan, face a hunger crisis. Some countries also have certain economic problems, including experiencing high energy prices (though prices are falling) or having spent a lot of resources on the covid-19 pandemic, said Tothova. At the end of last year, the US dollar strengthened, boosting the cost to these countries of commodities denominated in dollars. These were all factors affecting how much wheat the countries could afford to import, she said.

This year could be a different story. While Ukrainian farmers was able to plant the wheat before last year’s harvest, they don’t have all their usual resources, she said.
How will wheat production fare in the ongoing war?

For one, Ukrainian farmers didn’t have much liquidity, constraining how much farmers spent on inputs, such as fertilizer, said Tothova.

With the lands still contaminated with mines, and rail lines and roads in rough shape, production will still be well below average. The planting of winter wheat for the harvest in July 2023 was 40% below the 2022 level, according to estimates by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Still, wheat producers in Ukraine have gained confidence they will be able to export their product, said Tim Luginsland, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager, in an email. “So they will plant as much as they can.” He added this may be the year the US can increase its wheat exports if the US experiences normal precipitation.
The Russia-Ukraine war’s effect on global food insecurity

The war is one of the many factors contributing to worsening global food insecurity. East Africa, for instance, continues to experience years-long droughts in addition to political instability. Prior to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the number of undernourished in 2022 was 733.9 million people, according to FAO estimates. Based on new baseline projections in an environment of higher prices, that number increased by about 10 million, Tothova said. “The international prices, on average, for a number of reasons, including the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine, are making the situation worse,” she said.

“The world is functioning in this very interconnected manner,” she said, pointing to how the war contributed to higher energy prices, which drove up prices globally, which impacted interest rates. But, when it comes to agriculture, the biggest unknown tends to be weather, particularly, as weather events have become more extreme.

Quartz