New global burden of disease study: Mortality declines, youth deaths rise, widening health inequities

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

• Global life expectancy in 2023 is more than 20 years higher compared to 1950, and the age-standardized mortality rate is 67% lower, with all 204 countries and territories reporting declines.
• Despite these improvements, the world faces an emerging crisis of higher death rates in adolescents and young adults in North America and Latin America due to suicide and drug and alcohol consumption and in sub-Saharan Africa due to infectious diseases and unintentional injuries.
• Non-communicable diseases account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s total mortality and morbidity, led by ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes, emerging in the top ten causes.
• Half of the world’s disease burden is preventable and driven by 88 modifiable risks, including high blood pressure, air pollution, smoking, and obesity.
• The burden of mental disorders continues to surge globally, with anxiety and depression increasing death and disability by 63% and 26%, respectively.

SEATTLE, Wash – Oct. 12, 2025 – Global mortality rates are falling but not among youths and young adults, according to the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study published in The Lancet today and presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin. Additionally, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) now account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s total mortality and morbidity, with ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes leading the globe. Researchers also estimate that nearly half of all death and disability could be prevented by modifying some of the leading risk factors, such as reducing high levels of blood sugar and high body mass index (BMI).   

“The rapid growth in the world’s aging population and evolving risk factors have ushered in a new era of global health challenges,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. “The evidence presented in the Global Burden of Disease study is a wake-up call, urging government and health care leaders to respond swiftly and strategically to the disturbing trends that are reshaping public health needs.”

Dr. Murray’s team at IHME and its GBD Collaborator Network of 16,500 scientists and researchers collected and analyzed data and produced estimates for 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors by age and sex globally, regionally, and nationally for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations from 1990 to 2023, making the GBD the most comprehensive research quantifying health loss. Over 310,000 total data sources were used for the latest iteration, 30% of them new to this year’s study. It includes 1,211 location-years of provisional all-age vital registration data, which had not previously been used, and which provide more timely information. The global health assessments outlined in three peer-reviewed capstones cover critical areas of the GBD: a demographic analysis, causes of death, and the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

Demographic analysis: Global mortality declines, youth deaths climb

Despite population growth and aging, the 2023 global age-standardized mortality rate declined 67% since 1950, and all countries and territories marked declines. Global life expectancy returned to pre-pandemic levels at 76.3 years for females and 71.5 years for males, which is more than 20 years higher compared to 1950. Despite this progress, stark geographic differences remain, with life expectancy ranging from as high as 83 years in high-income regions to as low as 62 years in sub-Saharan Africa.

Among adolescents and young adults, the largest increase in deaths was registered among those aged 20 to 39 in high-income North America from 2011 to 2023, mainly due to suicide, drug overdose, and high quantities of alcohol. During the same period, deaths in the 5–19-year age group increased in Eastern Europe, high-income North America, and the Caribbean.

Over the entire study period, the number of infant deaths declined more than for any other age group. From 2011 to 2023, East Asia recorded the largest decrease of 68% in the mortality rate for the under-5 age group due to better nutrition, vaccines, and stronger health systems.

Advances in modeling for the GBD 2023 study showed mortality in children ages 5–14 in sub-Saharan Africa from 1950 to 2021 was higher than previously estimated, an increase driven by high rates of respiratory infections and tuberculosis, other infectious diseases, and unintentional injuries. New calculations also showed mortality in young adult females ages 15–29 in sub-Saharan Africa was 61% higher than previously estimated, mostly due to maternal mortality, road injuries, and meningitis. Read the capstone on the demographic changes in global health.

Causes of death: Shift from infectious to non-communicable diseases

Causes of death are shifting from infectious to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), creating new global health challenges, particularly for low-income countries. After standing as the leading cause of death in 2021, COVID-19 plunged to the 20th place in 2023, putting ischemic heart disease and stroke back at the top, followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal disorders. Since 1990, mortality rates for ischemic heart disease and stroke have declined, and so have diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Conversely, during the same period the death rate increased for diabetes, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and HIV/AIDS.

While the global mean age at death increased from 46.4 in 1990 to 62.9 years in 2023, geographic inequities were profound. The highest mean age of death was recorded in the high-income super-region, with females reaching 80.5 years and males at 74.4 years. The lowest mean age of death was in sub-Saharan Africa, with females at 37.1 years and males at 34.8 years.

The all-cause probability of dying before age 70 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, with drug use disorders as one of the leading causes. In sub-Saharan Africa, the probability increased for many NCDs, and the mean age of death from NCDs was lower than expected. In the high-income super-region, the probability increased for drug use disorders, and the mean age of death was lower than expected. Read the capstone on the 292 fatal conditions.

Burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors: Changing certain factors could reduce death and disability

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for nearly two-thirds of the world’s total death and disability. The top three causes were ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Low-income regions also saw a sharp rise in NCDs, further constraining nations with limited resources.

From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell 36%. This measures total years of healthy life lost by examining the years lost from premature death and years lived with disability. From 2010 to 2023, DALY rates for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases fell by almost 26%. This was led by rates for diarrheal diseases being cut in half, a 43% decrease in rates for HIV/AIDS, and a 42% drop for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remain the top causes of CMNN diseases but have declined 17% and 25%, respectively.

Almost half of the global mortality and morbidity in 2023 was attributable to 88 modifiable risk factors. The 10 risk factors with the highest proportion of health loss were high systolic blood pressure, particulate matter pollution, smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, low birthweight and short gestation, high BMI, high LDL cholesterol, kidney dysfunction, child growth failure, and lead exposure. Between 2010 and 2023, DALY rates for high BMI rose by almost 11%, drug use by nearly 9%, and high blood sugar by 6%.

New GBD modeling methods for lead exposure, the 10th-leading risk, also revealed a direct link to cardiovascular diseases. Removing lead from fuel has contributed to substantial declines in exposure over the years, but it’s still a common environmental contaminant that can be found in paint in older buildings, contaminated soil, water, spices, and many cooking utensils.

Climate-sensitive risks, such as air pollution and heat, continue to have a more significant impact on global health. The DALY rates for the second-leading risk, particulate matter pollution, were highest at the super-region level in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East. High temperatures are also exacerbating vulnerabilities in that same region, particularly the Sahel, by compounding the effects of drought, food insecurity, and displacement.

Mental health disorders rose steeply, with anxiety disorders increasing by 63% and depressive disorders by 26%. In addition, sexual abuse and intimate partner violence were identified as preventable contributors to depression, anxiety, and other health consequences.

Among children under 5, the 2023 leading risk factors were child and maternal malnutrition, particulate matter pollution, and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH). For children and adolescents aged 5 to 14 years, iron deficiency was the leading risk, followed by others related to unsafe WaSH and child and maternal malnutrition. For the 15 to 49 age group, the top two risks were unsafe sex and occupational injuries, followed by high BMI, high systolic blood pressure, and smoking. For those 50 to 69 years, high systolic blood pressure was the leading risk, followed by smoking, high blood sugar, high BMI, high LDL cholesterol, and kidney dysfunction.

From 2010 to 2023, injury-related DALY rates decreased by 16% during the same time period. The burden of injuries was higher in males, particularly older children and young adults ages 10 to 24, accounting for more than double the total DALYs compared to that of females.

Read the capstone covering the burden of all 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors in the GBD.

The GBD 2023 study highlights the urgent need for policymakers to expand health priorities beyond reducing child mortality to include adolescents and young adults, particularly in areas with higher rates of mortality than previously known.

“Decades of work to close the gap in low-income regions with persistent health inequities are in danger of unraveling due to the recent cuts to international aid,” said Emmanuela Gakidou, senior author and professor at IHME. “These countries rely on global health funding for life-saving primary care, medicine, and vaccines. Without it, the gap is sure to widen.”

The GBD estimates are also available in various interactive data visualization tools, including GBD Compare and GBD Results.

Journalists can download the embargoed copies of the GBD 2023 research, appendices, and tables of some of the key highlights via this NextCloud folder.

Here’s the info for embargoed access to the datafiles for each capstone:

Demographic analysis URL: https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2023-demographics-1950-2023

Password: GBD23demog!

Causes of Death URL: https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2023-cause-specific-mortality-1990-2023

Password: GBD23cod!

Burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors URL: https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2023-yld-daly-hale-risk-1990-2023

Password: GBD23dirf!

NOTE: THE NEXTCLOUD LINK IS FOR JOURNALISTS ONLY; IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE A LINK FOR YOUR READERS, PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING, WHICH WILL GO LIVE AT THE TIME THE EMBARGO LIFTS:

Link for first capstone, Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01330-3/fulltext

Link for second capstone, Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01917-8/fulltext

Link for third capstone, Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01637-X/fulltext

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Journal

The Lancet

Article Publication Date

12-Oct-2025

 

Cesarean delivery linked to higher risk of pain and sleep problems after childbirth

American Society of Anesthesiologists

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SAN ANTONIO — New mothers are more likely to experience severe pain that disrupts sleep and activities of daily living, as well as develop sleep disorders, if they give birth by cesarean delivery (C-section), suggests research presented at the ANESTHESIOLOGY® 2025 annual meeting.

“Sleep is often overlooked in postpartum recovery, but it is central to a mother’s physical and mental health,” said Moe Takenoshita, M.B.B.Ch., lead author of the study and a postdoctoral scholar in the department of anesthesia at Stanford University Center for Academic Medicine, Palo Alto, California. “Cesarean delivery in particular appears to increase the risk for severe pain and sleep disorders, which can lead to postpartum depression, thinking and memory problems, and fatigue, as well as disrupt bonding with their babies and relationships with family and friends.”  

The study included both qualitative and quantitative analyses. For the qualitative analysis, the authors interviewed 41 mothers about their pain and sleep experiences after childbirth, 24 of whom had vaginal births, 11 who had scheduled C-sections and six whose C-sections were unplanned. More than two-thirds of the mothers who had C-sections (73% of the scheduled cesareans and 67% of the unplanned) reported severe pain that disrupted sleep and activities of daily living, compared to 8% of those who had vaginal births.

For the quantitative study, the authors analyzed a nationwide insurance database of more than 1.5 million mothers who delivered babies between 2008 and 2021. They determined that individuals who have C-sections are 16% more likely to be diagnosed with a new sleep disorder (e.g., insomnia, sleep deprivation or obstructive sleep apnea) between a month and a year after giving birth, compared to those who delivered vaginally.  

New mothers, especially those recovering from C-sections, should be sure to manage pain adequately, since untreated pain can worsen sleep, said Dr. Takenoshita. Other measures that can help to improve sleep include regular exercise as appropriate, sleeping when the baby sleeps, avoiding caffeine or alcohol late in the day, and relaxing before bed by taking a bath or practicing deep breathing.

“About one-third of U.S. births are C-sections,” said Dr. Takenoshita. “Those who are planning a C-section should understand that the procedure is linked to more severe pain after delivery and a higher risk of sleep disorders. Anyone having sleep problems during pregnancy or after childbirth should discuss their concerns with their physician, who can evaluate the issue, make recommendations and refer them to a specialist if necessary.”

*** ANESTHESIOLOGY 2025 news releases may contain updated data that was not originally available at the time abstracts were submitted.

THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF ANESTHESIOLOGISTS

Founded in 1905, the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) is an educational, research and scientific society with more than 59,000 members organized to advance the medical practice of anesthesiology and secure its future. ASA is committed to ensuring anesthesiologists evaluate and supervise the medical care of all patients before, during and after surgery. ASA members also lead the care of critically ill patients in intensive care units, as well as treat pain in both acute and chronic settings.

For more information on the field of anesthesiology, visit the American Society of Anesthesiologists online at asahq.org. To learn more about how anesthesiologists help ensure patient safety, visit asahq.org/madeforthismoment. Join the #ANES25 conversation on social media. Follow ASA on Facebook, X, Instagram, Bluesky and LinkedIn.

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Chemobiological platform enables renewable conversion of sugars into core aromatic hydrocarbons of petroleum

A hybrid microbial–chemical platform paves the way for sustainable production of BTEX hydrocarbons

The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

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Professor Sun Kyu Han, Ph.D candidate Tae Wan Kim, Professor Kyeong Rok Choi, Professor Sang Yup Lee

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Credit: KAIST

With growing concerns over fossil fuel depletion and the environmental impacts of petrochemical production, scientists are actively exploring renewable strategies to produce essential industrial chemicals. A collaborative research team—led by Distinguished Professor Sang Yup Lee, Senior Vice President for Research, from the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, together with Professor Sunkyu Han from the Department of Chemistry at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)—has developed an integrated chemobiological platform that converts renewable carbon sources such as glucose and glycerol into oxygenated precursors, which are subsequently deoxygenated in the same solvent system to yield benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and p-xylene (BTEX), which are fundamental aromatic hydrocarbons used in fuels, polymers, and consumer products.

 

From Sugars to Aromatic Hydrocarbons of Petroleum

The researchers designed four metabolically engineered strains of Escherichia coli, each programmed to produce a specific oxygenated precursor—phenol, benzyl alcohol, 2-phenylethanol, or 2,5-xylenol. These intermediates are generated through tailored genetic modifications, such as deletion of feedback-regulated enzymes, overexpression of pathway-specific genes, and introduction of heterologous enzymes to expand metabolic capabilities.

During fermentation, the products were continuously extracted into the organic solvent isopropyl myristate (IPM). Acting as a dual-function solvent, IPM not only mitigated the toxic effects of aromatic compounds on cell growth but also served directly as the reaction medium for downstream chemical upgrading. By eliminating the need for intermediate purification, solvent exchange, or distillation, this solvent-integrated system streamlined the conversion of renewable feedstocks into valuable aromatics.

 

Overcoming Chemical Barriers in An Unconventional Solvent

A central innovation of this work lies in adapting chemical deoxygenation reactions to function efficiently within IPM—a solvent rarely used in organic synthesis. Traditional catalysts and reagents often proved ineffective under these conditions due to solubility limitations or incompatibility with biologically derived impurities.

Through systematic optimization, the team established mild and selective catalytic strategies compatible with IPM. For example, phenol was successfully deoxygenated to benzene in up to 85% yield using a palladium-based catalytic system, while benzyl alcohol was efficiently converted to toluene after activated charcoal pretreatment of the IPM extract. More challenging transformations, such as converting 2-phenylethanol to ethylbenzene, were achieved through a mesylation–reduction sequence adapted to the IPM phase. Likewise, 2,5-xylenol derived from glycerol was converted to p-xylene in 62% yield via a two-step reaction, completing the renewable synthesis of the full BTEX spectrum.

 

A Sustainable, Modular Framework

Beyond producing BTEX, the study establishes a generalizable framework for integrating microbial biosynthesis with chemical transformations in a continuous solvent environment. This modular approach reduces energy demand, minimizes solvent waste, and enables process intensification—key factors for scaling up renewable chemical production.

The high boiling point of IPM (>300 °C) simplifies product recovery, as BTEX compounds can be isolated by fractional distillation while the solvent is readily recycled. Such a design is consistent with the principles of green chemistry and the circular economy, providing a practical alternative to fossil-based petrochemical processes.

 

Toward A Carbon-Neutral Future

Dr. Xuan Zou, the first author of this paper, explaind, “By coupling the selectivity of microbial metabolism with the efficiency of chemical catalysis, this platform establishes a renewable pathway to some of the most widely used building blocks in the chemical industry. Future efforts will focus on optimizing metabolic fluxes, extending the platform to additional aromatic targets, and adopting greener catalytic systems.”

In addition, Distinguished Professor Sang Yup Lee noted “As the global demand for BTEX and related chemicals continues to grow, this innovation provides both a scientific and industrial foundation for reducing reliance on petroleum-based processes. It marks an important step toward lowering the carbon footprint of the fuel and chemical sectors while ensuring a sustainable supply of essential aromatic hydrocarbons.”

 

This research was supported by the Development of Platform Technologies of Microbial Cell Factories for the Next-Generation Biorefineries Project (2022M3J5A1056117) and the Development of Advanced Synthetic Biology Source Technologies for Leading the Biomanufacturing Industry Project (RS-2024-00399424), funded by the National Research Foundation supported by the Korean Ministry of Science and ICT. This study was published in the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2509568122 

Article Title

Chemobiological synthesis of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene from glucose or glycerol

COI Statement

Xuan Zou, Taewan Kim https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7508-8930, Zi Wei Luo, +2 , and Sang Yup L

 

‘New reality’ as world reaches first climate tipping point

University of Exeter

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• Widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs under way, as world reaches first tipping point
• With global warming set to breach 1.5°C, world dangerously close to further catastrophic tipping points
• These include melting ice sheets, Amazon rainforest dieback and collapse of vital ocean currents
• Tipping points pose a new type of threat that current international structures and agreements are not designed to counter
• Key to averting catastrophe is to act urgently, by supporting societal transformation and triggering ‘positive tipping points’ such as the self-propelling rollout of green technologies

The world faces a “new reality” as we have reached the first of many Earth system tipping points that will cause catastrophic harm unless humanity takes urgent action, according to a landmark report released today (13 Oct) by the University of Exeter and international partners.

With ministers gathering today ahead of the COP30 summit, the second Global Tipping Points Report finds that warm-water coral reefs – on which nearly a billion people and a quarter of all marine life depend – are passing their tipping point. Widespread dieback is taking place and – unless global warming is reversed – extensive reefs as we know them will be lost, although small refuges may survive and must be protected.

We are on the brink of more tipping points, with devastating risks for people and nature: the irreversible melting of polar ice sheets, the collapse of key ocean currents and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest – where COP30 will be held.

With global warming set to breach 1.5°C, the report – by 160 scientists at 87 institutions in 23 countries – argues that countries must minimise temperature overshoot to avoid crossing more tipping points. Every fraction of a degree and every year spent above 1.5°C matters.

Action to trigger “positive tipping points” of self-propelling change – such as the rollout of green technologies – now offers the only credible route to a safe, just and sustainable future, the report says.

The researchers are working with Brazil’s COP30 Presidency to ensure that tipping points are on the agenda at the summit.

Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, said: “We are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature. This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide.

“In the two years since the first Global Tipping Points Report, there has been a radical global acceleration in some areas, including the uptake of solar power and electric vehicles. But we need to do more – and move faster – to seize positive tipping point opportunities. By doing so, we can drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions and tip the world away from catastrophic tipping points and towards a thriving, sustainable future.”

Dr Mike Barrett, chief scientific advisor at WWF-UK and co-author of the report, said: “The findings of this report are incredibly alarming. That warm-water coral reefs are passing their thermal tipping point is a tragedy for nature and the people that rely on them for food and income. This grim situation must be a wake-up call that unless we act decisively now, we will also lose the Amazon rainforest, the ice sheets and vital ocean currents. In that scenario we would be looking at a truly catastrophic outcome for all humanity.

“As we head into the COP30 climate negotiations it’s vital that all parties grasp the gravity of the situation and the extent of what we all stand to lose if the climate and nature crises are not addressed. The solutions are within our reach. Countries must show the political bravery and leadership to work together and achieve them."

The report says that the nature of abrupt and irreversible Earth system tipping points mean that they pose a different type of threat to other environmental challenges, and that current policies and decision-making processes are not adequate to respond. Global action must include accelerating emissions reductions and scaling up carbon removal to minimise temperature overshoot. The expected impacts of tipping processes need to be considered in risk assessments, adaptation policies, loss and damage mechanisms and human rights litigation.

Dr Manjana Milkoreit, from the University of Oslo, said: “Current policy thinking doesn’t usually take tipping points into account. Tipping points present distinct governance challenges compared to other aspects of climate change or environmental decline, requiring both governance innovations and reforms of existing institutions.

“Preventing tipping points requires ‘frontloaded’ mitigation pathways that minimise peak global temperature, the duration of the overshoot period above 1.5°C, and the return time below 1.5°C. Sustainable carbon dioxide removal approaches need to be rapidly scaled up to achieve this.”

The report’s authors are working with Brazil’s COP30 Presidency on the “Action Agenda” as a platform for accelerating climate transition plans and triggering self-reinforcing change across different sectors – from agriculture to energy, from forests to cities – towards low-carbon and climate-resilient global transformation.

The President Designate of COP30 in Brazil, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, said: “As part of a global mobilisation against climate change – our ‘Global Mutirão’ – the COP30 Presidency invited community leaders, scholars and scientists to explore the best available science and ancestral wisdom around how our institutions can gain exponentiality in deploying solutions and versatility in responding to the climate crisis, including through agile, iterative and adaptive capabilities. I welcome the Global Tipping Points Report as a positive and timely response to our invitation. The report stands as hopeful and sober evidence that humanity can still choose to change and evolve towards a safe, prosperous and equitable future.”

The report highlights progress on positive tipping points – and opportunities for a cascade of positive change:

• Positive tipping points have already been crossed in solar PV and wind power globally, and in the adoption of electric vehicles, battery storage and heat pumps in leading markets. These transitions can still be accelerated. Coordinated policy action at “super-leverage points” can unleash positive tipping cascades across interacting sectors (e.g. power, transport and heating), bringing forward tipping in all. Once replaced, polluting technologies are unlikely to return because the new options are cheaper and better. Social attitudes are also tipping. Concern about climate change is growing globally – and even small numbers of people can tip the majority.
• More positive tipping points are approaching in sectors including goods transport. COP30’s host nation, Brazil, has great potential for producing green steel, green hydrogen, and green ammonia – helping to kickstart these crucial technologies worldwide. Positive tipping points can rapidly restore nature and biodiversity. Ecosystem restoration can tip degraded systems back to health, and shifts to more sustainable patterns of consumption and production can lead to tipping points in food and fibre supply chains that end deforestation and ecosystem conversion.
• We need to identify and trigger many more positive tipping points. Better indicators are needed to understand tipping potential. Once identified, positive tipping is enabled by making the desired innovation the most affordable, accessible and/or attractive option. Governments, businesses, civil society and individuals all have a role to play. People understand the need for change and support the transition to a cleaner, healthier world, provided it is done fairly. Success may depend on following a path of least polarisation. The COP30 Presidency has launched a Global Mutirão (meaning “collective efforts”) to encourage climate action worldwide.

The report includes case studies on several Earth system tipping points:

• Globally, warm-water coral reefs are experiencing unprecedented mortality under repeated mass bleaching events. With current global warming at about 1.4°C, reefs are passing their thermal tipping point (central estimate 1.2°C, range 1-1.5°C). Even stabilising warming at 1.5°C, warm-water coral reefs are virtually certain (over 99% probability) to tip. This means coral reefs on any meaningful scale will be lost unless the global temperature returns towards 1°C warming or below, although fragments of reef may be preserved with conservation action that minimise other human stressors such as overfishing and pollution. Regional risk assessments and governance are urgently needed to prepare for the increasing loss of ecosystem services provided by reefs.
• The report finds that the temperature rise that would trigger the widespread dieback of the Amazon rainforest due to a combination of climate change and deforestation is lower than previously thought, with the lower end of the estimated range now at 1.5°C, highlighting the need for urgent action. Over a hundred million people depend on the Amazon and it could also be subject to positive social tipping points: inclusive local governance (including by Indigenous People), recognition of traditional knowledge, and targeted investments in conservation and restoration could boost the resilience of people and nature.
• The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is at risk of collapse below 2°C of global warming. This would result in much harsher winters in north-west Europe, disrupt the West African and Indian Monsoons, and decrease agricultural yields in much of the world – with major impacts for global food security.

Professor Lenton concluded: “Only with a combination of decisive policy and civil society action can the world tip its trajectory from facing existential Earth system tipping point risks to seizing positive tipping point opportunities.”

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Article Title

Global Tipping Points Report 2025