'Why now?' Dismay as US considers troop pullout from Somalia

CARA ANNA
Thu, November 26, 2020

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — No country has been involved in Somalia’s future as much as the United States. Now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the Horn of Africa nation at what some experts call the worst possible time.

Three decades of chaos, from warlords to al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabab to the emergence of an Islamic State-linked group, have ripped apart the country that only in the past few years has begun to find its footing. The U.S. Embassy returned to Somalia just last year, 28 years after diplomats and staffers fled.

Somalia faces a tense election season that begins in the next few weeks to decide the presidency and parliament. United Nations experts say al-Shabab, supporting its 5,000 to 10,000 fighters on a rich diet of extorting businesses and civilians, is improving its bomb-making skills. And an ever bigger military force, the African Union’s 19,000-strong AMISOM, has begun its own withdrawal from a country whose forces are widely considered unready to assume full responsibility for security.

It is not clear whether President Donald Trump will order the withdrawal of the some 700 U.S. military forces from Somalia, following his orders for Afghanistan and Iraq, or whether the reported urge will pass before he leaves office in January. But the idea is taken seriously, even as U.S. drone strikes are expected to continue in Somalia against al-Shabab and IS fighters from neighboring Djibouti and Kenya — where al-Shabab carried out a deadly attack against U.S. forces early this year.

The U.S. Africa Command has seen a “definitive shift” this year in al-Shabab's focus to attack U.S. interests in the region, a new report by the Department of Defense inspector general said Wednesday — and the command says al-Shabab is Africa's most “dangerous” and “imminent” threat.

Here’s what’s at stake:

COUNTERTERRORISM

“The first thing ... it’s disastrous for Somalia’s security sector, it just causes that first panic reaction: You know, why now?” said Samira Gaid, a Somali national security specialist who served as senior security adviser to the prime minister and special adviser to the head of AMISOM. “Especially since over the past three and half years in particular the security sector really improved, and we tried to work closely with" the U.S., she told The Associated Press.

Recent progress includes a “war council” between the U.S. and Somali governments, she said, where the U.S. helps to draw up military plans. “We call them Somali-led operations, but really the U.S. is hand-holding us through it."

The U.S. military also trains Somalia’s elite Danab special forces that now number around 1,000, and is providing Danab with air cover and intelligence, Gaid said.

“Danab was expanding, that’s why this is so shocking,” she said. “Is it possible to move forward with that plan now?”

Danab units are now operational in four of Somalia's five member states, the U.S. military says, and they conducted about 80% of the Somali national army's offensive forces in the quarter ending Sept. 30 and “nearly all” operations against al-Shabab.

The Danab forces also serve as a model for how the rest of Somali military forces can develop to be “more meritocracy and less clan-focused,” said Omar Mahmood, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.

The loss of U.S. forces is widely seen as a gain for al-Shabab, and for the far smaller presence of hundreds of IS-affiliated fighters in Somalia's north. “From the al-Shabab perspective, they just need to hold out,” Mahmood said, and they might even ask themselves what need there is for any potential Taliban-style negotiations.

Al-Shabab’s messaging has always stressed the extremist group's staying power, national security specialist Gaid said: “These external forces will always leave.” A U.S. withdrawal will play into that narrative.

Gaid said she doesn't see any other country stepping into the U.S. military’s role, though a withdrawal would open space for powers like Russia and China. Somalia also has some 1,500 special forces that have been trained by Turkish troops, she said, but “they don’t benefit from Turkish advisers on the ground.”

SECURITY

Without U.S. forces, al-Shabab “will find it easier to overrun AMISOM, let alone the Somali national army,” Vanda Felbab-Brown, co-director of the African Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution, told an online event this week. And with neighboring Ethiopia’s conflict increasing pressure to withdraw more Ethiopian forces from Somalia, a U.S. troop withdrawal “is really just the worst time.”

The support that U.S. forces give AMISOM is “huge,” Gaid said, including as a key interlocutor with Somali forces. And with AMISOM also drawing down by the end of next year, “it’s a tricky time.”

The U.S. has said implementation of the plan for Somali forces to take over the country's security next year is “badly off track,” said the new report by the Department of Defense inspector general.

Somali forces cannot contain the al-Shabab threat on its own, the report said. They still rely on the international community for financial support, and yet they “sometimes go unpaid for months.”

Maybe a U.S. withdrawal would lead the AMISOM force to adjust its own withdrawal timeline “more realistically,” Mahmood said.

The U.S. has been the most engaged security partner in Somalia “willing to get down and dirty,” he added. But no other country appears to have the willingness to replace what U.S. forces are doing on the ground

And a withdrawal of both the U.S. and AMISOM would risk leaving the impression that “Somalia increasingly can rely less and less on external security partners," Mahmood said.

POLITICAL STABILITY

Somalia is on the brink of elections, with the parliamentary vote scheduled in December and the presidential one in February. What had meant to be the country’s first one-person-one-vote election in decades instead remains limited by disputes between the federal government and regional ones — which the U.S. has said also weakens command and control of Somali forces.

At least keep U.S. forces in Somalia until after the elections, Felbab-Brown wrote this week, warning of possible post-election violence or al-Shabab taking advantage of any chaos.

Even though U.S. forces don’t provide election security, “our problem is, with the U.S. focused on a drawdown of troops, it would not be focused on how the elections are going politically,” Gaid said.

The U.S. has been one of the most vocal actors on Somalia's election process, she said. “We were all expecting after November that the U.S. would be clear on a lot of stuff. Now it seems we have to wait.”

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Somalia US Troop Withdrawal
U.S. Army Spc. Dominic Deitrick, assigned to the 1-186th Infantry Battalion, Task Force Guardian, Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa, seen through a night-vision device, provides security for a 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron (EAS) C-130J Super Hercules during unloading and loading operations Friday, June 12, 2020 at an unidentified location in Somalia. No country has been involved in Somalia's future as much as the United States but now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the nation at what some experts call the worst possible time. (Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano/Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa via AP)

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Somalia US Troop Withdrawal
U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Damian T. Donahoe, deputy commanding general, Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa, center, talks with service members during a battlefield circulation Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020, in Somalia. No country has been involved in Somalia's future as much as the United States but now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the nation at what some experts call the worst possible time. (Senior Airman Kristin Savage/Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa via AP)

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Somalia US Troop Withdrawal
A U.S. Army soldier assigned to Site Security Team Task Force Guardian, 1st Battalion, 186th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, provides security for a C-130J Super Hercules from the 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron (EAS) at an unidentified location in Somalia Wednesday, June 10, 2020. No country has been involved in Somalia's future as much as the United States but now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the nation at what some experts call the worst possible time. (Staff Sgt. Shawn White/Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa via AP)



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Somalia US Troop Withdrawal
U.S. Army soldiers assigned to the 1-186th Infantry Battalion, Task Force Guardian, Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa, provide security for a 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron (EAS) C-130J Super Hercules during loading and unloading operations at an unidentified location in Somalia Friday, July 10, 2020. No country has been involved in Somalia's future as much as the United States but now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the nation at what some experts call the worst possible time. (Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano/Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa via AP)

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Somalia US Troop Withdrawal
U.S. Army Spc. Kevin Martin, junior sniper, assigned to the 1-186th Infantry Battalion, Task Force Guardian, Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa, provides security for a 75th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron (EAS) C-130J Super Hercules during unloading operations at an unidentified location in Somalia Sunday, June 28, 2020. No country has been involved in Somalia's future as much as the United States but now the Trump administration is thinking of withdrawing the several hundred U.S. military troops from the nation at what some experts call the worst possible time. (Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano/Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa via AP)

THE ORIGINAL FAILED NATION STATE

Somalia: Malnutrition killing hundreds of children, UN says

The fifth drought in as many years has brought Somalia to the brink, raising fears of a deadly famine. Hundreds of children have already died from severe acute malnutrition.


Some 1.5 million children in Somalia are at risk of severe acute malnutrition

Some 730 children have died in nutrition centers around Somalia already this year, the United Nation's children's agency UNICEF said on Tuesday.

Nutrition centers help children suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

The announcement comes a day after the UN warned of a coming famine in the Horn of Africa. The region is facing its fifth consecutive failed rainy season.

"Malnutrition has reached an unprecedented level," UNICEF's Somalia representative Wafaa Saeed said.
Children particularly vulnerable to famine

Saeed said that between January and July this year, "around 730 children are reported to have died in nutrition centers across the country."

She was speaking to reporters in Geneva via a video-link from Mogadishu.

"This is less than one percent of the children who were admitted, cured and discharged. But we also feel that this number could be more, as many deaths of children go unreported."

The prices aid groups pay for emergency water supplies have also increased by between 55% and 85% since the beginning of the year, UNICEF said. Officials said that violence enacted by the Islamist group al-Shabab is also partly to blame.

Drought, war put Somalia on the brink of extreme hunger

According to the UNICEF official, some 1.5 million children are at risk of acute malnutrition. Around half of those are younger than five-years-old.

She added that 385,000 children may need to be treated for severe acute malnutrition.
'We cannot wait to act' WFP tells DW

DW spoke with Petroc Wilton from the UN's World Food Program (WFP) following his trip to the country.

Wilton warned that the famine is "going to affect the most vulnerable first. And that is young children. It is the elderly. It is those living with disabilities. It is those who have been internally displaced by conflict."

"We cannot wait for a declaration of famine to act," the WFP official said, adding that "In 2011, the last major famine in Somalia that claimed more than a quarter of a million lives, half of the people who passed away had died before the official declaration."

"This is an unusually severe drought, but Somalia is very prone to droughts, to floods, to tropical storms, they keep happening," Wilton told DW.
Drought driving Somalia into a crisis

Somalia is on the brink of its second famine in just over a decade thanks to a drought a soaring global food prices.

Saeed explained on Tuesday that the drought had caused a water and sanitation crisis due to dried up water sources.

"Many of those have also dried out because of overuse, and we have around 4.5 million people who need emergency water supplies," she said.

"No matter how much food a malnourished child eats, if he or she doesn't get clean water then they won't be able to recover," said Saeed.

She also warned of the dangers of outbreaks of disease among children suffering from acute malnutrition.

The UN has called on world leaders to respond to the crisis before it is too late and to avoid a repeat of the deadly famine that hit the region in 2011.

UN agencies have warned that around half of Somalia's population is facing crisis hunger levels and that people living in Kenya and Ethiopia will also be affected.

ab/msh (Reuters, AFP)

More than 700 children have died in Somalia nutrition centres, UN says

Issued on: 07/09/2022 - 

Hundreds of children have already died in nutrition centres across Somalia, the UN children's agency (UNICEF) said on Tuesday, a day after the global body warned that parts of Somalia will be hit by famine in the coming months. The Horn of Africa region is on track for a fifth consecutive failed rainy season. A famine in 2011 in Somalia claimed more than a quarter of a million lives, most of them children.

 

UN: At least $1 billion needed to avert famine in Somalia

By EDITH M. LEDERER

today

1 of 5

Fatuma Abdi Aliyow sits by the graves of her two sons who died of malnutrition-related diseases last week, at a camp for the displaced on the outskirts of Mogadishu, Somalia Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. Millions of people in the Horn of Africa region are going hungry because of drought, and thousands have died, with Somalia especially hard hit because it sourced at least 90 percent of its grain from Ukraine and Russia before Russia invaded Ukraine. (AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh)

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. humanitarian chief predicted Tuesday that at least $1 billion will be needed urgently to avert famine in Somalia in the coming months and early next year when two more dry seasons are expected to compound the historic drought that has hit the Horn of Africa nation.

Martin Griffiths said in a video briefing from Somalia’s capital Mogadishu that a new report from an authoritative panel of independent experts says there will be a famine in Somalia between October and December “if we don’t manage to stave it off and avoid it as had been the case in 2016 and 2017.”

The undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs told U.N. correspondents that more than $1 billion in new funds is needed in addition to the U.N. appeal of about $1.4 billion. That appeal has been “very well-funded,” he said, thanks to the U.S. Agency for International Development, which announced a $476 million donation of humanitarian and development aid in July.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network, created by USAID, said in a report Monday that famine is projected to emerge later this year in three areas in Somalia’s southeastern Bay region, including Baidoa without urgent humanitarian aid.

Up to 7.1 million people across Somalia need urgent assistance to treat and prevent acute malnutrition and reduce the number of ongoing hunger-related deaths, according to a recent analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification or IPC, used by the network to describe the severity of food insecurity.

The Horn of Africa region has seen four straight failed rainy seasons for the first time in over half a century, endangering an estimated 20 million people in one of the world’s most impoverished and turbulent regions.

Griffiths said meteorologists have predicted the likelihood of a fifth failed rainy season from October to December, and a sixth failed rainy season from January to March next year is also likely.

“This has never happened before in Somalia,” he said. “This is unprecedented.”

“We’ve been banging the drum and rattling the trees trying to get support internationally in terms of attention, prospects, and the possibilities and the horror of famine coming to the Horn of Africa -- here in Somalia maybe first, but Ethiopia and Kenya, probably they’re not far behind,” Griffiths said.

He said the U.N. World Food Program has recently been providing aid for up to 5.3 million Somalis, which is “a lot, but it’s going to get worse if famine comes.” He said 98% of the aid is given through cash distributions via telephones.

But many thousands are not getting help and hungry families in Somalia have been staggering for days or weeks through parched terrain in search of assistance.

Griffiths said a big challenge is to get aid to people before they move from their homes, to help avoid massive displacement.

Many Somalis raise livestock, which is key to their survival, but he said three million animals have died or been slaughtered because of the lack of rain.

“Continued drought, continued failure of rainy seasons, means that a generation’s way of life is under threat,” Griffiths said.

He said the international community needs to help Somalis find an alternative way of life and making a living, which will require development funding and funding to mitigate the impact of climate change.

Griffiths, a British diplomat, said the war in Ukraine has had an impact on humanitarian aid, with U.N. humanitarian appeals around the world receiving about 30% of the money needed on average.

“To those countries, which are traditionally very generous, my own included, and many others,” he said. “Please don’t forget Somalia. You didn’t in the past. You contributed wonderfully in the past. Please do so now.”

UN pleads for aid for Somalia, on the brink of famine

Issued on: 07/09/2022 - 

The United Nations on Tuesday begged the international community not to forget Somalia, with the humanitarian affairs chief pleading for more aid as drought puts 200,000 people on the brink of famine.

‘Only God  - WE can help’: Hundreds die as Somalia faces famine

By OMAR FARUK and CARA ANNA

PHOTO ESSAY 1 of 17  WARNING DISTRESSING IMAGES

Doctor Mustaf Yusuf treats Ali Osman, 3, who is showing symptoms of Kwashiorkor, a severe protein malnutrition causing swelling and skin lesions, as his mother Owliyo Hassan Salaad, 40, holds him at a malnutrition stabilization center run by Action against Hunger, in Mogadishu, Somalia Sunday, June 5, 2022. Deaths have begun in the region's most parched drought in decades and previously unreported data show nearly 450 deaths this year at malnutrition treatment centers in Somalia alone.

 (AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh)

MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — No mother should have to lose her child. Owliyo Hassan Salaad has watched four die this year. A drought in the Horn of Africa has taken them, one by one.

Now she cradles her frail and squalling 3-year-old, Ali Osman, whom she carried on a 90-kilometer (55-mile) walk from her village to Somalia’s capital, desperate not to lose him too. Sitting on the floor of a malnutrition treatment center filled with anxious mothers, she can barely speak about the small bodies buried back home in soil too dry for planting.

Deaths have begun in the region’s most parched drought in four decades. Previously unreported data shared with The Associated Press show at least 448 deaths this year at malnutrition treatment centers in Somalia alone. Authorities in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya are now shifting to the grim task of trying to prevent famine.

Many more people are dying beyond the notice of authorities, like Salaad’s four children, all younger than 10. Some die in remote pastoral communities. Some die on treks in search of help. Some die even after reaching displacement camps, malnourished beyond aid.

“Definitely thousands” have died, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Somalia, Adam Abdelmoula, told reporters on Tuesday, though the data to support that is yet to come.

Salaad left behind another four children with her husband. They were too weak to make the journey to Mogadishu, she said.

Drought comes and goes in the Horn of Africa, but this is one like no other. Humanitarian assistance has been sapped by global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and now Russia’s war in Ukraine. Prices for staples like wheat and cooking oil are rising quickly, in some places by more than 100%. Millions of the livestock that provide families with milk, meat and wealth have died. Even the therapeutic food to treat hungry people like Salaad’s son is becoming more expensive and, in some places, might run out.

And for the first time, a fifth straight rainy season might fail.

An “explosion of child deaths” is coming to the Horn of Africa if the world focuses only on the war in Ukraine and doesn’t act now, UNICEF said Tuesday.

Famine even threatens Somalia’s capital as displacement camps on Mogadishu’s outskirts swell with exhausted new arrivals. Salaad and her son were turned away from a crowded hospital after arriving a week ago.

They were sent instead to the treatment center for the extremely malnourished where rooms are full, extra beds have been put out and yet some people must sleep on the floor. Mothers wince, and babies wail, as tiny bodies with sores and protruding ribs are gently checked for signs of recovery.

“The center is overwhelmed,” said Dr. Mustaf Yusuf, a physician there. Admissions more than doubled in May to 122 patients.

At least 30 people have died this year through April at the center and six other facilities run by Action Against Hunger, the humanitarian group said. It is seeing the highest admission rates to its hunger treatment centers since it began working in Somalia in 1992, with the number of severely malnourished children up 55% from last year.

More broadly, at least 448 people died this year at outpatient and in-patient malnutrition treatment centers across Somalia through April, according to data compiled by humanitarian groups and local authorities.

Aid workers warn the data is incomplete and the overall death toll from the drought remains elusive.

“We know from experience that mortality rises suddenly when all the conditions are in place — displacement, disease outbreaks, malnutrition — all of which we are currently seeing in Somalia,” said Biram Ndiaye, UNICEF Somalia’s chief of nutrition.

Mortality surveys conducted in parts of Somalia in December and again in April and May by the U.N.’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit showed a “severe and rapid deterioration within a very short time frame.” Most alarming was the Bay region in the south, where adult mortality nearly tripled, child mortality more than doubled and the rate of the most severe malnutrition tripled.

Deaths and acute malnutrition have reached “atypically high levels” in much of southern and central Somalia, and admissions of acutely malnourished children under 5 have risen by over 40% compared to the same period last year, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.

One notable complication in counting deaths is the extremist group al-Shabab, whose control over large parts of southern and central Somalia is a barrier to aid. Its harsh response to Somalia’s drought-driven famine from 2010-12 was a factor in more than a quarter-million deaths, half of them children.

Another factor was the international community’s slow response. “A drama without witnesses,” the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Somalia said at the time.

Now the alarms are sounding again.

More than 200,000 people in Somalia face “catastrophic hunger and starvation, a drastic increase from the 81,000 forecast in April,” a joint statement by U.N. agencies said Monday, noting that a humanitarian response plan for this year is just 18% funded.

Somalia isn’t alone. In Ethiopia’s drought-affected regions, the number of children treated for the most severe malnutrition — “a tip of the crisis” — jumped 27% in the first quarter of this year compared to last year, according to UNICEF. The increase was 71% in Kenya, where Doctors Without Borders reported at least 11 deaths in a single county’s malnutrition treatment program earlier this year.

At one of the overflowing displacement camps on the outskirts of Mogadishu, recent arrivals were anguished as they described watching family members die.

“I left some of my children behind to care for those suffering,” said Amina Abdi Hassan, who came from a village in southern Somalia with her malnourished baby. They’re still hungry as aid runs dry, even in the capital.

“Many others are on the way,” she said.

Hawa Abdi Osman said she lost children to the drought. Emaciated, and weakened by another pregnancy, she walked five days to Mogadishu.

“We had to leave some of our relatives behind, and others perished as we watched,” said her cousin, Halima Ali Dhubow.

More people come to the camp every day, using the last wisps of energy to set up makeshift shelters in the dust, lashing together branches with fabric and plastic. Some walked up to 19 days to reach the capital, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council.

“Last night alone 120 families came in,” camp manager Nadifa Hussein said. “We are giving them all the little supplies we have, like bread. The number of people is so overwhelming that helping them is beyond our capacity. In the past aid agencies helped, but now aid is very scarce.

“Only God can help them,” she said.

___

Cara Anna reported from Nairobi, Kenya. Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.

'It's a pending nightmare': Millions at risk of famine in Somalia

If nothing is done within days, people in Somalia will start dying, according to the Red Cross. Experts say that lessons from previous famines have to be learned to prevent mass casualties.

The Ukraine war might be the single biggest accelerator in Somalia's current food crisis situation

A humanitarian catastrophe is imminent in Somalia and the Horn of Africa. That's the joint assessment of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), following months of food security assessments.

The number of people in dire need of emergency humanitarian assistance in Somalia has increased from 4.1 million at the beginning of 2022 to 7.1 million, and is expected to continue to grow.

Francesco Rocca, president of the IFRC, highlighted at a press conference in Geneva that 22 million people living in the Horn of Africa are already in the clutches of a growing food crisis.

"The situation expected to deteriorate into 2023," Rocca stressed, adding that what is being done was "minimal compared to the huge needs" of the region.

Peter Maurer, the outgoing president of the ICRC, meanwhile warned that if the international community waits to take action until a famine is officially declared, "we know that it will already be too late."

"Tens of thousands of people will already have died by the time we declare a famine," Maurer said.

The Horn of Africa is currently witnessing its fifth consecutive failed rainy season. The war in Ukraine and its ensuing grain delivery shortages have further compounded the situation, as well as political upheaval across the region.

More than 200,000 are at risk of dying — potentially by the end of the year. About half of the country's population is likely to experience hunger and want in some shape during the same timescale unless aid is stepped up.

Maurer (l.) and Rocca agree that action must be taken immediately to

 prevent a humanitarian catastrophe

Uncertain future for children

The UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths said that in Somalia alone, more than $1 billion (€1 billion) is needed to prevent the worst from happening.

Arriving in the Somalian capital Mogadishu last week, Griffiths underlined the fact that children are particularly at risk, saying that he had encountered children who were so malnourished that they could barely speak.

The number of children facing the effects of severe acute malnutrition in Somalia meanwhile has increased to over half a million, according to the UN.  James Elder, spokesman for the UN children's agency UNICEF, said that this level of child famine had not been seen in any country yet this century, with more than 700 children already having lost their lives this year due to malnutrition.

Infectious diseases are rising among Somalia's children as their defenses 

are weakened amid the growing starvation crisis

Meanwhile, outbreaks of infectious diseases have also increased in Somalia, with around 8,400 suspected cases of cholera and nearly 13,000 suspected cases of measles.

"We've got more than half a million children facing preventable death. It's a pending nightmare," Elder stated, echoing Maurer's sentiments who said that children potentially dying of hunger "is the result of systemic failure."

In 2011, tens of thousands of children were reported to have died during the most recent famine in the region. The total number of famine victims that year are estimated to be roughly a quarter of a million lives, according to the UN.

Ukraine war — in Somalia

The war in Ukraine — unfolding some 7,000 kilometers (4,350 miles) north of Mogadishu — might be the single biggest accelerator in the current food crisis situation. Prior to the Russian invasion, Somalia imported 90% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he would continue to prioritize the Horn of Africa in whatever shipments can occur in the future while the war still rages, but there are no absolute guarantees, especially since all exports take place under the watchful eye of the Russian military.

Even with grain deliveries from Ukraine continuing, Somalia faces grave food

 shortages amid the worst drought in 40 years

Lessons from the past

But there are other factors at play. Somalia's population is for the most part pastoral and nomadic, making it difficult to deliver aid where it is needed most.

However, Rocca stressed that the IFRC is working closely not only with other agencies but also with Somalia's nomadic communities. Rocca said that "world leaders should listen to act immediately" in order not only to prevent a massive humanitarian crisis but also to establish "longterm solutions in the Horn of Africa."

In addition to repeated drought decimating herds and crops, a locust invasion has also contributed to weakening the Horn of Africa since 2019. These are all primarily attributed to the effects of climate change.

UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths

 says he has never witnessed such destitution as the scenes unfolding in Somalia right now

The consequences of COVID-19 have also made the situation in Somalia more precarious for many, with supply chains being interrupted at the height of the pandemic.

Years of Islamist insurgency under the al-Shabab militant group in various parts of the country have also contributed to the lack of stability in Somalia and its neighbors, causing irregular migration patterns and displacing thousands from their homes.

Abubakar Dahir Osman, the UN's permanent representative in Somalia, however, emphasized that humanitarian aid alone cannot provide a lasting solution to the famine in Somalia. He said that the relationship between humanitarian aid and development needed to be strengthened to find sustainable solutions for those who are suffering.

Rocca meanwhile stressed that the international community must learn from the shortcomings of the past, adding that addressing "the root causes of the crisis" needed to be part of a comprehensive action plan. Maurer agreed with that assessment, saying that people could start dying "within days."

"The alarm bells are ringing loudly," Maurer added.

Mohd Awal Balarabe, Sylvia Mwehoyi and Mohammed Odowa contributed to this report

Edited by: Keith Walker

Why Somali Canadians are footing more of the bill for the climate crisis in Africa

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As Somalia's worst drought in decades increases economic turmoil, the diaspora is sending more money

Kiernan Green · CBC News · Posted: Mar 19, 2023 

Extreme drought in the Horn of Africa has led to severe hardship for many people in Somalia. ((AP Photo/Mohamed Sheikh Nor)

People in Somalia have long relied on money from family members abroad to build hope for the future. These contributions — also known as remittances — have been essential during the last three decades of civil conflict in the east African country. 

Just ask Hassan Mowlid Yasin. Relatives who immigrated to the U.S. regularly sent remittances to his grandmother. Those paid for Yasin's education in public health at Jobkey University in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. 

"The Somalia diaspora has been very supportive for the past 30 years … feeding many millions of households," said Yasin, 31. Remittances account for a quarter to 40 per cent of Somalia's GDP, according to a 2019 report from the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto.

Today, Yasin is executive director of Somalia's Greenpeace Association. He's on the front line promoting education and environmental policy in a country that is feeling climate change acutely.

Hibaq Warsame, a project co-ordinator with Midaynta Community Services for Somali Canadians in Toronto, says there's a stark difference in the tone of her relatives overseas in light of the ongoing drought. (Hibaq Warsame)

Somalia's ongoing drought has widened pre-existing gaps in the country's economy. Four partial rainy seasons throughout the past two years — generally thought to be a direct result of climate change — have brought the most persistent drought in four decades to the Horn of Africa. 

And Somalis as far away as Canada are helping foot the bill.

• Families walking kilometres for water in Somalia's worst drought in decades, says Saskatoon aid work

Hibaq Warsame, a project co-ordinator at Toronto's Midaynta Community Services for Somali Canadians, said she can hear the burden of the ongoing drought in the voices of relatives on the phone.

"Especially with elderly members of my family," she said.

Life in Somalia 'very expensive'

Since the drought began two years ago, Yasin said an estimated 600,000 of Somalia's livestock have perished. Not only do livestock like goats and cattle provide Somalis with diet staples of meat and milk, but up until recently they accounted for half of Somalia's export earnings and another 40 per cent of its GDP. 

Due to this, the number of Somalis facing an "unprecedented level of need" for food doubled last October to nearly eight million, according to a December report from the UN. 

"A lot of [Somali Canadians] are being contacted by family back home, saying, 'We're not able to afford food,'" said Warsame. "It's not even on a month-to-month basis. It's a day-to-day basis." 

What used to be $150 US a month for Warsame's family has increased to $350. Four others working at Midaynta said they've made an identical increase in their monthly remittance spending to Somali relatives. 

Jibril Ibrahim, president of the Somali Canadian Cultural Society of Edmonton, said his remittance spending rose from $100 to between $300 and $500 a month. That's separate from what his wife sends her own family, he said. 

Ibrahim said the budgeting difficulties for Somali Canadians are compounded by Canada's own inflation pressures and the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on job security for recent immigrants. 

Jibril Ibrahim, president of the Somali Canadian Cultural Society of Edmonton, said his remittance spending rose from $100 to between $300 and $500 a month. That's separate from what his wife sends her own family, he said. (Scott Neufeld/CBC)

"But still they have to send money. Because unless they do so, more and more people would be lost to the drought." 

Living in Mogadishu, Yasin said he hasn't had to flee the famine, which has been mostly contained in the country's rural areas. But many farmers and their families, as well as those they fed in refugee camps, have made a mass movement to Somalia's cities. 

This, in turn, has led to rising costs in the country's capital, including record food inflation (17.5 per cent) and rental rates, said Yasin, who has a three-year-old daughter.

"Things are very expensive now in Somalia," he said.

'Loss and damage' funding

The Somalia Greenpeace Association, one of the few organizations advocating for climate resilience policies in Somalia (and not affiliated with Greenpeace International), attended the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last November. 

The summit's hallmark was "loss and damage" funding from richer countries for developing ones, like Somalia, which bear the brunt of the climate crisis. To date, Canada has committed $5.3 billion to climate financing worldwide.

The millions of dollars the United Nations currently sends to Somalia are designated for emergencies only, such as internationally displaced people or food assistance, said Yasin. Little is left over to fund long-term infrastructure.

To have any long-term impact, Yasin said loss and damage funds must be earmarked for technology like new irrigation systems, solar-powered wells, modern tractors and other agricultural equipment. 

"If we prevent [internally displaced people], if we build resilience, we will be able to carry the whole community. That's the biggest thing we need to focus on on the ground, other than emergency responses," said Yasin.

Ibrahim is skeptical, however, that institutional funding can offer more to Somalia's drought resilience than diaspora remittances, given the latter's outsized role in the country's economy. 

For Somali Canadian remittances to go even further, Ibrahim said legal methods for money transfers in Canada should be made cheaper and more accessible.

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Controversy over hawala payments

Today, money-transfer businesses registered with the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) are the only method for legally sending funds abroad.

Some MSB transfers can be made through a phone call, but they typically require an in-person visit — the timing of which is especially critical if the overseas recipient is facing an emergency, said Yasmine Aul, an outreach worker at Midaynta. 

Most MSBs with routes from Canada to Somalia operate out of the United Arab Emirates, are fixed to investments in gold or jewellery and involve substantial additional fees, said Ibrahim.

An effective method to save time and cost is hawala, he said. A sender provides remittances, their recipient's name and location to a local hawala broker, who contacts a hawala broker at the recipient's location to provide the recipient with the amount given to the first broker.

Hassan Mowlid Yasin, right, speaks on a panel about youth action and climate change at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November 2022. (Hassan Mowlid Yasin/Facebook)

Hawala has been used throughout South Asia and North Africa since the eighth century, and unlike typical systems based on promissory notes or other debt instruments, is based solely on an honour system between brokers. The system relied on written correspondence in the Middle Ages, but today can be taken care of over the phone in a matter of minutes, said Ibrahim.

However, since it doesn't require the physical movement of money or a paper trail, hawala has faced regular controversy as a vehicle to fund extremist groups, like al-Shabaab in Somalia, and illegal markets. 

During the pandemic, several MSBs and bank accounts based in Edmonton used for sending remittances to Somalia were closed because of their affiliations with hawala vendors, despite having undergone and passed audits by FINTRAC, Ibrahim said.

When Edmonton-area MP Randy Boissonault, the assistant finance minister, was asked for comment, a press secretary said financial institutions have "the discretion to close accounts or refuse to do business with MSBs." He also said the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act requires client identities and certain transaction records, which are not required for the hawala system.

Government policy creating 'additional cost'

Ibrahim says he understands the government's position, but questions the blanket illegality of hawala in Canada. 

"We're not sending $10,000 or $20,000 [individually]. We're talking about $100 from individuals to their loved ones," he said. "How is that going to help terrorist groups?"

Ibrahim said registered MSBs still deliver remittances to the right place. But thanks to their substantial fees and Canada's own cost of living increases, "there's an additional cost that we [Somali Canadians] have to sustain as a result of government policy."

The Somali Canadian Cultural Society of Edmonton collected $150,000 across Edmonton's Somali community last year, said Ibrahim. Their focus was primarily the Jubaland region of southern Somalia, where the rebel group al-Shabaab took control of charcoal production. 

Left unregulated, the tree-cutting required to produce charcoal has led to rapid deforestation, worsening Somalia's drought conditions. As a result, 80 per cent of Jubaland's livestock perished in 2021, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 

Midaynta raised $7,000 through two events since September. This year, one of the organization's goals is to bring the issue to local politicians and Toronto's immigrant community at large.

"We're constantly in contact with our family and friends back home. We're getting first-hand information," said Warsame. But she said awareness of the severity of Somalia's drought, its impact on so many facets of life and the resulting onus on the diaspora community "isn't as widespread in Canada as we'd like it to be."