Critics say Saudi Arabia and Houthis looking out for own interests as other Yemeni actors are left in the dark on talks
Houthi political leader Mahdi al-Mashat meets with Saudi and Omani delegations at the Republican Palace in Sanaa, Yemen on 9 April 2023 (Reuters)
By Rayhan Uddin
MEE correspondent in Sanaa
Published date: 13 April 2023
In the Yemeni capital, significant diplomatic activity is afoot: Saudi and Houthi officials are meeting publicly for the first time since the civil war broke out in 2014.
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber, was pictured shaking hands with Houthi political chief Mahdi al-Mashat in Sanaa, ahead of peace talks that also included an Omani delegation.
"The fanfare and attention around the joint Saudi-Omani delegation’s visit to Sanaa underlines... that Yemen’s conflict has reached a crucial inflection point," said Adam Baron, an adviser at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue.
"There is a visceral feeling of something jarring in seeing these photos after all that's happened," Baron added, despite the fact that such meetings "have been occurring in private".
One of those present on Sunday, Houthi leader Ali Qarshah, only six years ago had a $5m price tag placed on his head by the Saudis, as part of a list of 40 figures suspected of "terrorist activity".
But after eight years of hostility and devastation, in what has widely been described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, momentum is building for a permanent ceasefire.
For the Houthis - the rebel group that seized the capital in 2014 and forced the internationally recognised government to flee to Saudi Arabia - an agreement could set the path to permanent recognition and further territorial gains.
'Saudi surrender'
Houthi fighter Yunis, 22, who fought on the front line in the key strategic city of Marib, is overjoyed at the prospect of a Saudi deal.
"I am happy, and I feel I am living the best days in my life. This development has made thousands of fighters believe they are on the right direction," he told Middle East Eye.
But he struck a warning: "We will continue fighting if this peace effort leads nowhere."
In March 2015, a Saudi-led coalition, which included the United Arab Emirates, intervened on behalf of the Yemeni government to push back the Iran-aligned Houthis after they took control of Sanaa.
Coalition air strikes killed thousands of civilians, according to UN reports, while the Houthis launched missiles and drones at civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
A six-month truce brokered by the UN that ended in October is still mostly holding, giving long-awaited respite to Yemenis.
'We will continue fighting if this peace effort leads nowhere'- Yunis, Houthi fighter
The Saudi visit to Yemen comes just weeks after a broader reconciliation between Riyadh and Iran, brokered by China.
On Saturday, Saudi officials arrived in Iran to discuss procedures for reopening Riyadh's embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad as a result of the deal.
Yunis believes that Riyadh’s delegation arriving in Sanaa is proof of "Saudi surrender".
"Saudi Arabia and its allies had refused to talk with us directly. They described us as militias and terrorists," he said. "They bombed us mercilessly, thinking they would defeat us."
The talks this week will centre around a timeline for foreign fighters to leave Yemen, the payment of wages for public sector workers, and lifting restrictions on the country’s airports and ports in Houthi-controlled areas.
On Thursday, nearly 900 detainees will be flown between Yemen and Saudi Arabia as part of the largest prisoner exchange between the two countries since October 2020.
Talks 'nothing to do with Yemen'
Nadwa al-Dawsari, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, said that Riyadh and the Houthis, who hold much of Yemen's north, are only looking after their own interests during the discussions.
"These talks have nothing to do with Yemen. These talks are between the Saudis and the Houthis," she told MEE. "They've got nothing to do with the other actors inside Yemen."
Dawsari said Saudi Arabia aims to "wash their hands of Yemen" after years of criticism for waging war on its neighbour.
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"The Houthis' objective is still to seize control over all of Yemen," she said. "Once that deal is signed, well, the Houthis will just march into Marib and will march into the rest of Yemen."
She added that the Houthis have long aimed to establish military power and control over enough of the country to "force the international community" to recognise them politically.
"Now the moment has come," Dawsari said.
Saudi Arabia played a role in re-organising the Aden-based Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), a disparate collection of anti-Houthi forces in the country that serve as the executive body of the internationally recognised government.
The PLC, whose eight members include figures from the separatist Southern Transitional Council and a nephew of former autocrat Ali Abdullah Saleh, have largely been kept in the dark during this week’s discussions.
"The PLC designated the Houthis as a terrorist group and now [they] are forced to sign a deal with the Houthis," said Dawsari. "That can tell you the level to which these groups are involved or not involved in these talks."
The Aden-based government has welcomed the de-escalation talks, despite appearing to be sidelined by its ally, Riyadh.
The fighter Yunis said the Houthis will continue to have the upper hand in Yemen’s north, and would not allow foreign influence
"The Houthis' objective is still to seize control over all of Yemen," she said. "Once that deal is signed, well, the Houthis will just march into Marib and will march into the rest of Yemen."
She added that the Houthis have long aimed to establish military power and control over enough of the country to "force the international community" to recognise them politically.
"Now the moment has come," Dawsari said.
Saudi Arabia played a role in re-organising the Aden-based Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), a disparate collection of anti-Houthi forces in the country that serve as the executive body of the internationally recognised government.
The PLC, whose eight members include figures from the separatist Southern Transitional Council and a nephew of former autocrat Ali Abdullah Saleh, have largely been kept in the dark during this week’s discussions.
"The PLC designated the Houthis as a terrorist group and now [they] are forced to sign a deal with the Houthis," said Dawsari. "That can tell you the level to which these groups are involved or not involved in these talks."
The Aden-based government has welcomed the de-escalation talks, despite appearing to be sidelined by its ally, Riyadh.
The fighter Yunis said the Houthis will continue to have the upper hand in Yemen’s north, and would not allow foreign influence
'Iran has won this war… They have empowered their ally in Yemen and they did it without direct intervention'- Nadwa al-Dawsari, researcher
"Saudi Arabia played a role in appointing Yemeni officials in the Aden-based government in southern Yemen. Such a scenario will not happen in northern Yemen," he said.
There is foreign influence over the Houthis, though, in the form of their ally, Iran.
"Iran has won this war. Iran has done a brilliant job with the Houthis. They have empowered their ally in Yemen and they did it... without direct intervention," said Dawsari.
She also believes that Saudi Arabia is hoping for one of two options in the future: "Either the Houthis will abandon Iran and be friends with the Saudis... or Iran will somehow de-escalate.
"This is just wishful thinking on the Saudi side," she said.
Aaya al-Shamahi contributed to this report
Despite hope, Yemen peace talks are oversold, experts say
Neither the ongoing negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, nor the upcoming prisoner swap, are tangible signals for an upcoming end of the war as most Yemeni factions remain excluded.
This week's hearty handshake by the Saudi ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed bin Saeed al-Jaber, and the political head of the Houthi rebels, Mahdi al-Mashat, has kindled a glimmer of hope that there could be an end to the war in Yemen. Since Sunday, Saudi and Houthi delegations have been holding peace talks in the Houthi-controlled capital, Sanaa.
The main topics on the negotiating table are a six-month truce between the two warring parties — the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government and the Iran-aligned Houthis — the reopening of the Houthi-controlled airport in Sanaa and the Red Sea port in Hodeida, the lifting of the Houthi blockade of the government-controlled city of Taiz, the resumption of oil exports from government-held oil fields via Houthi gateways and the consolidation of Yemen's economy.
However, despite the international hope that has accompanied this latest round of talks, there are some doubts peace could be imminent.
One reason is that Yemen's Presidential Council, the executive body of the internationally recognized government, was not included in the negotiations, nor were any other Yemeni parties, such as the separatists of the Southern Transitional Council.
Peace talks 'may even increase the risk of a disintegration'
Marwa Baabbad, director of the Berlin-based think tank Yemen Policy Center Germany, doesn't think the current talks are actually aimed at ending the war. "Major differences between the Yemeni parties must be addressed to open a window for sustainable peace", she told DW.
"Oman's purpose was not to broker a wider Yemen national peace but to convince the Houthis to end their cross-border attacks, and ease the relationship between the Saudis and the Houthis," she said.
The Houthi group could indeed be next on Saudi Arabia's list of efforts to mend ties with regional enemies, after agreeing to reestablish diplomatic relations with archenemy Iran in March after seven years of frozen ties. And it's no secret that Saudi Arabia has become highly interested in exiting the costly proxy war in Yemen.
Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told DW he believed Yemen was being used as a pawn. "Saudi Arabia is pursuing short-term objectives at the expense of its long-term interests in durable stability and security in the region," he said.
"Saudi Arabia has given the Houthis the right to represent Yemen at the expense of all other parties," he added, warning that this, in combination with the Houthis' unwillingness to share political power, could accelerate the destabilization of the country.
"The current talks may even increase the risk of a disintegration of the state, as the other parties will not agree to live under Houthi control," Al-Iryani said.
He referred, above all, to a movement in the country's south that has been following its own agenda since 2017. The separatists of the Southern Transitional Council, or STC, will, in Al-Iryani's view, most likely increase their efforts to declare a unilateral secession.
Jennifer Holleis
April 13,2023
April 13,2023
Neither the ongoing negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group, nor the upcoming prisoner swap, are tangible signals for an upcoming end of the war as most Yemeni factions remain excluded.
This week's hearty handshake by the Saudi ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed bin Saeed al-Jaber, and the political head of the Houthi rebels, Mahdi al-Mashat, has kindled a glimmer of hope that there could be an end to the war in Yemen. Since Sunday, Saudi and Houthi delegations have been holding peace talks in the Houthi-controlled capital, Sanaa.
The main topics on the negotiating table are a six-month truce between the two warring parties — the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government and the Iran-aligned Houthis — the reopening of the Houthi-controlled airport in Sanaa and the Red Sea port in Hodeida, the lifting of the Houthi blockade of the government-controlled city of Taiz, the resumption of oil exports from government-held oil fields via Houthi gateways and the consolidation of Yemen's economy.
However, despite the international hope that has accompanied this latest round of talks, there are some doubts peace could be imminent.
One reason is that Yemen's Presidential Council, the executive body of the internationally recognized government, was not included in the negotiations, nor were any other Yemeni parties, such as the separatists of the Southern Transitional Council.
According to official UN figures, millions of Yemenis now depend on international aid for survival
KHALED ABDULLAH/REUTERS
Yemen's two main political factions, the Houthis and the government, have been at war since 2014 when Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized Sanaa and ousted the government. In 2015, the situation escalated when a Saudi-led coalition of nine countries intervened in an effort to restore the internationally recognized government in the city of Aden, on the Red Sea coast.
The brutal conflict — widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran — has caused almost half a million deaths and resulted in the internal displacement of thousands of people. According to the United Nations, at least one-third of the population of 31 million is fully dependent on international aid. The situation in the war-torn country is widely considered one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
Yemen's two main political factions, the Houthis and the government, have been at war since 2014 when Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized Sanaa and ousted the government. In 2015, the situation escalated when a Saudi-led coalition of nine countries intervened in an effort to restore the internationally recognized government in the city of Aden, on the Red Sea coast.
The brutal conflict — widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran — has caused almost half a million deaths and resulted in the internal displacement of thousands of people. According to the United Nations, at least one-third of the population of 31 million is fully dependent on international aid. The situation in the war-torn country is widely considered one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
Peace talks 'may even increase the risk of a disintegration'
Marwa Baabbad, director of the Berlin-based think tank Yemen Policy Center Germany, doesn't think the current talks are actually aimed at ending the war. "Major differences between the Yemeni parties must be addressed to open a window for sustainable peace", she told DW.
"Oman's purpose was not to broker a wider Yemen national peace but to convince the Houthis to end their cross-border attacks, and ease the relationship between the Saudis and the Houthis," she said.
The Houthi group could indeed be next on Saudi Arabia's list of efforts to mend ties with regional enemies, after agreeing to reestablish diplomatic relations with archenemy Iran in March after seven years of frozen ties. And it's no secret that Saudi Arabia has become highly interested in exiting the costly proxy war in Yemen.
Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told DW he believed Yemen was being used as a pawn. "Saudi Arabia is pursuing short-term objectives at the expense of its long-term interests in durable stability and security in the region," he said.
"Saudi Arabia has given the Houthis the right to represent Yemen at the expense of all other parties," he added, warning that this, in combination with the Houthis' unwillingness to share political power, could accelerate the destabilization of the country.
"The current talks may even increase the risk of a disintegration of the state, as the other parties will not agree to live under Houthi control," Al-Iryani said.
He referred, above all, to a movement in the country's south that has been following its own agenda since 2017. The separatists of the Southern Transitional Council, or STC, will, in Al-Iryani's view, most likely increase their efforts to declare a unilateral secession.
Yemen's Southern Transitional Council might soon ramp up efforts to separate, destabilizing the country even further
SALEH OBAIDI/AFP
This could lead Yemen into further instability. "Neither the STC are ready to control all of the south, nor the Houthis can control all of the north, so we are facing the disintegration of the Yemeni state and not a separation into two states," he said.
He also doubts there would be international recognition for the Houthis or the STC as new governmental bodies.
This would, in turn, negatively affect international investment and could slow down reconstruction once the war ends.
Peace requires reconstruction, reconciliation and economic recovery
Hisham Al-Omeisy, a conflict analyst and senior Yemen adviser at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, also doubts that the exclusive peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could lead to tangible peace.
"Yemen has 21 governorates with 333 districts, each with its own unique problems. Without inclusivity, without a bottom-up approach in Yemen, any peace process is not going to be sustainable," he told DW.
Al-Omeisy said Yemen needed reconstruction plans, pathways to reconciliation and economic recovery to achieve peace. "And without all of that, and without trust-building measures as well, we are overselling the current peace talks."
This could lead Yemen into further instability. "Neither the STC are ready to control all of the south, nor the Houthis can control all of the north, so we are facing the disintegration of the Yemeni state and not a separation into two states," he said.
He also doubts there would be international recognition for the Houthis or the STC as new governmental bodies.
This would, in turn, negatively affect international investment and could slow down reconstruction once the war ends.
Peace requires reconstruction, reconciliation and economic recovery
Hisham Al-Omeisy, a conflict analyst and senior Yemen adviser at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, also doubts that the exclusive peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could lead to tangible peace.
"Yemen has 21 governorates with 333 districts, each with its own unique problems. Without inclusivity, without a bottom-up approach in Yemen, any peace process is not going to be sustainable," he told DW.
Al-Omeisy said Yemen needed reconstruction plans, pathways to reconciliation and economic recovery to achieve peace. "And without all of that, and without trust-building measures as well, we are overselling the current peace talks."
The UN-brokered prisoner swap is most likely to start this week, with hundreds of families hoping to be reunited
TWITTER OF ABDULQADER AL-MORTADA/AFP
Meanwhile, hopes are rising that a UN-brokered prisoner swap will actually take place later this week. In March, the Yemeni government promised to release 706 detained Houthis, while Houthi rebels said they would release 181 prisoners in exchange.
As of Thursday morning, the first 14 prisoners had been exchanged, with Majid Fadael, the official spokesman for the government delegation negotiating the exchange, confirming the swap on Twitter.
Edited by: Martin Kuebler
Meanwhile, hopes are rising that a UN-brokered prisoner swap will actually take place later this week. In March, the Yemeni government promised to release 706 detained Houthis, while Houthi rebels said they would release 181 prisoners in exchange.
As of Thursday morning, the first 14 prisoners had been exchanged, with Majid Fadael, the official spokesman for the government delegation negotiating the exchange, confirming the swap on Twitter.
Edited by: Martin Kuebler
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