Rosneft overtakes ExxonMobil to take fourth slot in global energy ranking 

HOW ARE THOSE SANCTIONS DOING?!

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By bne IntelliNews February 25, 2025

Russia’s biggest state-owned oil major Rosneft has overtaken ExxonMobil to take the fourth slot in the Energy Intelligence Top 100: Global NOC and IOC Rankings, TASS reported on February 25.

Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of the the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), retained its position at the top of the ranking, followed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) in second and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in third. ExxonMobil has now dropped to fifth place.

“Rosneft’s advance to No. 4 is due in part to growing gas output, along with lower Exxon results,” said Alex Schindelar, President of Energy Intelligence, as cited by TASS.

Rosneft’s growth comes after the outgoing Biden administration imposed the “harshest ever oil sanctions” on Russia in December, which caused logistic disruptions in Asia amongst Russia’s biggest customers.

The EU has also just imposed a sixteenth sanctions package, which included new measures against Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. However, as reported by bne IntelliNews, the oil sanctions have largely become a spent cannon and had little effect on Russian oil exports. The headline oil price cap sanctions  have been widely ignored and not on barrel of Russian oil has been sold for less than the $60 cap.

Other companies in the top ten include Chevron, Gazprom and PDVSA, which are tied for position, as well as Shell and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).

Several other Russian firms featured in the ranking, with Lukoil placed 13th, Surgutneftegaz 30th, Novatek 32nd, Tatneft 52nd, and Russneft 85th.

The Energy Intelligence Top 100: Global NOC and IOC Rankings is the only system that evaluates both National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs) using a standardised methodology. The ranking is based on six key parameters: oil reserves, natural gas reserves, oil production, natural gas production, refining capacity, and petroleum product sales.

 

Romanian opposition demands probe into Russia-linked contractor for Nato base

Defence Minister Angel Tilvar visiting the Mihail Kogălniceanu military base. /

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By bne IntelliNews February 25, 2025

Romanian opposition party Union Save Romania (USR) has called on Defence Minister Angel Tilvar to clarify how a company with alleged ties to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska was awarded a contract for the construction of Nato’s largest military base in Europe at Mihail Kogalniceanu. 

The party has raised concerns over national security and called for an immediate parliamentary inquiry into the matter, G4Media reported.

A press investigation revealed that one of the companies involved in the Nato base project has links to Deripaska, a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin who is under international sanctions. According to USR, Romania’s Nato allies have repeatedly warned the government about this potential security risk, and Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu was reportedly informed during his visit to the United States in 2024.

USR has formally requested explanations from Tilvar, demanding answers on who approved the contract, why immediate measures were not taken when warnings were issued, and why the government failed to inform the public about the situation. The issue will also be raised during a parliamentary session.

"Romania is on the verge of war, and we are building a Nato base with a company linked to the Putin regime. This is an outrageous situation that raises serious concerns. We demand immediate answers from the Minister of Defence on who authorised this contract and what steps the government is taking to safeguard national security and that of our Nato allies," said Ionuț Moșteanu, leader of the USR deputies.

Romania initiated a €2.5bn project to expand the base back in 2019, with the aim of consolidating Nato's Eastern Flank. The project is expected to take 20 years to complete.

In addition to the Nato base controversy, USR is also pressing for answers on allegations of corruption within the Romanian military, citing the case of three-star General Cătălin Zisu, who was reportedly found in possession of 2,000 paintings and luxury watches.

The party also questioned why Romania appears diplomatically sidelined compared to Poland, arguing that Tilvar’s recent meeting with his Luxembourg counterpart at the Munich Security Conference underscores the country’s diminished role in strategic discussions.

 

Iran kills Peugeot model after 25 years production

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By bnm Tehran bureau February 24, 2025

Iranian automaker Iran Khodro Co (IKCO) reduced losses in its Peugeot vehicle division to IRR14.4 trillion ($15.5mn) in the nine months to December 2024, down from IRR110.14 trillion ($118.4mn) in the same period last year, killing off major models as part of its new private owner’s redevelopment plan, Eghtesad News reported on February 24.

The recently privatised manufacturer, which has haemorrhaged money for decades, discontinued its Peugeot 405/Pars model line in spring 2024, following extensive internal deliberations following privatisation. The 40-year-old model, despite still being produced, had lost buyers due to the influx of Chinese players into the local market offering electric and hybrid vehicles. Initially created as a joint venture with PSA Groupe, since merging into Stellantis, the French firm dropped any rights to the production of the model in the Islamic Republic.

The dropping of the Pars lineup resulted in a 42% reduction in overall Peugeot production to 122,750 units, compared with 213,550 units in the previous period, according to consolidated financial statements filed with the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Despite lower production volumes, the company increased average selling prices to IRR3.95bn ($4,247) per vehicle, up from IRR2.6bn ($2,796). Total revenue from Peugeot sales reached IRR484.2tn ($520.6mn) against production costs of IRR498.5 trillion ($536mn) on the back of an agreed price increase due to the weakening rial.

The Peugeot Pars emerged as IKCO’s main model, which is used by the government, diplomats, and families alike. Originally designed as a facelift of the Peugeot 405, the vehicle incorporated design elements from the Peugeot 605 and 406 models. Iran Khodro introduced it following a decade of local Peugeot 405 production.

Since its privatisation, IKCO has redirected its manufacturing focus towards higher-margin vehicles, particularly the 15-year-old Peugeot 207 series, after removing the entire Pars family from production.

Iranian regulators approved a 30% price increase across the company's product range in November 2024, marking its first price adjustment in 18 months.

The regulatory approval followed extended negotiations with automotive sector policymakers. The restructuring initiative has significantly altered the company's product mix, with average unit prices rising 52% compared to the previous period.

"The removal of Peugeot Pars from our production line and realignment towards other models has shown clear results in our financial performance," the company spokesperson said to local media.

As part of the privatisation, the new board composition includes Ganjineh Iranian Investments, Behineh Sazan Bahman Company, Etebar Afarin Company – all considered allies of Crouse – as well as the National Investment Management of Iran and Saba Energy, bnm IntelliNews earlier revealed.

Crouse, the largest auto part manufacturer in the country, started buying shares of major automakers via its affiliated companies in recent months. The move has been criticised by many observers, as automakers have repeatedly blamed part makers for the low quality of their products.

IKCO expanded its regional reach in recent years with joint venture deals with companies in countries including Iraq and Azerbaijan. The company also used to produce vehicles in Syria under Bashar al-Assad’s regime but has since discontinued operations in that market.

The shift to private sector management through Crouse Group has generally received positive reactions in the press. The move represents a significant change for Iran's largest automaker, which has struggled with losses, though its future performance under private management remains to be seen.

Cars produced by IKCO’s joint venture with Azerbaijan’s AzerMash – under the Khazar brand – are to be sold in Russia if all goes to plan. Khazar’s plant is in the Naftchala department of Azerbaijan, 168 kilometres south of Baku. In Azerbaijan, in the basic configuration, a Dena sedan costs AZN16,000 ($9,411).

Iran Turns to Solar to Address Electricity Shortage

By Andrew Topf - Feb 24, 2025

Iran is turning to solar energy to address its worsening electricity shortages.

High domestic energy consumption, gas wastage, and U.S.-led sanctions have exacerbated Iran’s energy crisis.

A lack of energy diversity and aging infrastructure have left Iran vulnerable to energy shortfalls.


Iran isn’t the first nation that springs to mind when it comes to solar power.

The Middle Eastern country is one of the richest in energy resources, holding the second-largest natural gas reserves behind Russia, at 17 percent, and 9.4 percent of global oil reserves. It is a founding member of OPEC and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

But over the past few years, Iran has faced an energy imbalance in its gas and electricity sectors, necessitating gas imports from Turkmenistan and recently Russia, states Manara Magazine.

This has led to Iran announcing earlier this month an agreement with private investors to develop solar plants by this summer.

“Our priority is to entrust existing infrastructure to the private sector before the government intervenes,” said Mohsen Tarztalab, deputy energy minister and head of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Organization (SATBA), during the signing ceremony.

According to the head of Tehran Regional Electricity Company, a 3-megawatt solar power plant worth approximately 900 billion rials (USD$1.8 million) will be constructed in the Iranian capital.

Once operational it will be connected to the national power grid.

Farhad Shabihi also launched the construction of 120 megawatts of renewable power plants, each with a capacity of 3 megawatts or less, in Tehran Province.

There are several reasons why Iran needs solar power and to import natural gas to address its energy imbalance.

First is abnormally high energy consumption. Iran produces about 260 billion cubic meters of gas a year, with only 18 billion allocated for export and the remainder consumed internally. Iran’s annual natural gas demand has risen 7 percent a year over the past decade, with the residential sector and power plants driving most of the growth.

According to Manara, Iran is the world’s fourth-largest gas consumer behind the United States, Russia and China, and consumes 10 billion cubic meters more gas than over 30 European countries combined.

Besides being a glutton for natural gas, Iran also wastes a lot of it. According to the World Bank and the International Energy Agency, the country flares 18 billion cubic meters annually due to the lack of gas collection equipment at oil fields. An additional 7 billion cubic meters is leaked from the transmission and distribution network each year.

US-led sanctions have also played a role in preventing foreign investment, and in developing gas production capacity and power plants.

In December 2022, Manara reported that Iran’s then-oil minister, Javad Owji, warned that Iran would become a net energy importer if it failed to attract $240 billion in investment to its oil and gas sector.

The final factor contributing to Iran’s gas imbalance is its lack of energy diversity. Just over two-thirds (68 percent) of Iran’s energy consumption relies on gas, compared to 26 percent for Turkey and 31 percent for Canada. These two countries also generate a respective 35 times and 30 times more solar and wind energy than Iran, and nine times and 53 times more electricity from hydroelectric power.

Iran’s gas imbalance has resulted in gas shortages and power outages.

During winter the country experiences a daily shortfall of at least 260 million cubic meters of gas, straining the electricity supply. Iran’s power industry is warning of a 30 percent energy deficit by this summer. According to Manara, the widespread and recurring problem of power outages in summer is forcing many industrial facilities, including gas power plants, to switch to mazut, a heavy oil that is highly polluting.

Iran International reported at year-end 2024 that 50 percent of Iran’s industrial parks ceased operations due to power outages. Aging infrastructure, international sanctions, and poor management have compounded the problem, leading to the shutdown of approximately 80 power plants, the publication stated, adding that in industrial regions, power cuts have resulted in damages amounting to hundreds of billions of rials.

Iran’s electricity shortage was estimated at 14,000 megawatts last summer. Heavy state subsidies have encouraged inefficient energy consumption, while geopolitical tensions and sanctions have hindered infrastructure investments, Iran International stated.

By Andrew Topf for Oilprice.com

Texas to Become Hub for Advanced Nuclear Energy Development

By ZeroHedge - Feb 25, 2025

Texas is actively pursuing the development of advanced nuclear reactors to meet its increasing energy demands, with significant investments and legislative support.

Companies like Natura Resources and Kairos Power are leading the way in building and testing new reactor designs, which offer improved safety and efficiency compared to traditional nuclear technology.

Texas A&M University is establishing an "Energy Proving Ground" to host multiple commercial advanced reactors, aiming to become a hub for nuclear energy innovation.



The small West Texas city of Abilene is better known for country music and rodeos than advanced nuclear physics. But that's where scientists are entering the final stretch of a race to boot up the next generation of American atomic energy.

Amid a flurry of nuclear startups around the country, Abilene-based Natura Resources is one of just two companies with permits from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to construct a so-called "advanced" reactor. It will build its small, one megawatt molten salt reactor beneath a newly-completed laboratory at Abilene Christian University, in an underground trench 25 feet deep and 80 feet long, covered by a concrete lid and serviced by a 40-ton construction crane.

The other company, California-based Kairos Power, is building its 35 megawatt test reactor in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, the 80-year capital of American nuclear power science. Both target completion in 2027 and hope to usher in a new chapter of the energy age.

"A company and school no one has heard of has gotten to the forefront of advanced nuclear," said Rusty Towell, a nuclear physicist at Abilene Christian University and lead developer of Natura's reactor. "This is going to bless the world."

The U.S. Department of Energy has been working for years to resuscitate the American nuclear sector, advancing the development of new reactors to meet the enormous incoming electrical demands of big new industrial facilities, from data centers and Bitcoin mines to chemical plants and desalination facilities.


Leaders in Texas, the nation's largest energy producer and consumer, have declared intentions to court the growing nuclear sector and settle it in state. The project at Abilene Christian University is just one of several early advanced reactor deployments already planned here.

Dow Chemical plans to place small reactors made by X-energy at its Seadrift complex on the Gulf Coast. Last month, Natura announced plans to power oilfield infrastructure in the Permian Basin. And in February, Texas A&M University announced that four companies, including Natura and Kairos, would build small, 250 megawatt commercial-scale reactors at a massive new "proving grounds" near its campus in College Station.

"We need energy in Texas, we need a lot of it and we need it fast," said state Sen. Charles Perry, chairman of the Senate Committee on Water, Agriculture and Rural Affairs. "The companies that are coming here are going to need a different type of energy long term."

During this year's biennial legislative session, state lawmakers are hoping to make billions of dollars of public financing available for new nuclear projects, and to pass other bills in support of the sector.

"If we do what we're asked to do from industry groups out here, if we do what we think we should do and we know we should do, we could actually put a stake in the ground that Texas is the proving ground for these energies," Perry said, speaking this month in the state capitol at a nuclear power forum hosted by PowerHouse Texas, a nonprofit that promotes energy innovation.


But, he added, "Texas is going to have to decide: At what level of risk is it prudent for taxpayer dollars to be risked?"

The first new reactors might be commercially ready within five years, he said; most are 10 to 20 years away.

Dozens of proposed new reactor designs promise improved efficiency and safety over traditional models with less hazardous waste. While existing nuclear reactors use cooling systems filled with water, so-called "advanced" reactor designs use alternatives like molten salt or metal. It enables them, in theory, to operate at a higher temperature and lower pressure, increasing the energy output while decreasing the risks of leaks or explosions.

"Texas is going to have to decide: At what level of risk is it prudent for taxpayer dollars to be risked?" — State Sen. Charles Perry

Before it can be built, each design is extensively reviewed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in a yearslong process to ensure they meet safety requirements.


"We understand how much work we're facing and getting that done means finding every appropriate efficiency in our reviews," said Scott Burnell, public affairs officer for the NRC.

The commission is also reviewing a permit application by Washington-based TerraPower, founded by Bill Gates in 2006, to build a full commercial nuclear power plant in Wyoming. It expects to receive a construction permit application for the X-energy reactor at Dow in Texas this year, Burnell said.

After construction, the companies will require a separate permit to operate their projects. None have sought an operating license for an advanced nuclear reactor, but Natura plans to file its application this year.

For Towell, an Abilene native and the son of two ACU faculty members, this moment was a decade in the making. In 2015 he founded the NEXT Lab at ACU for advanced nuclear testing, got a $3 million donation from a wealthy West Texas oilman in 2017, entered into partnership with the Energy Department in 2019 and formed the company Natura in 2020. Construction finished in 2023 on NEXT's shimmering new facility. And in 2024, the NRC issued a permit to build the first advanced reactor at an American university.
What are Advanced Nuclear Reactors?

Towell, a former instructor at the U.S. Naval Nuclear Power School, said these new projects represent the first major advancement in American nuclear power technology in 70 years. While layers and layers of safety systems have been added, the basic reactor design has remained unchanged.


It uses a cooling system of circulating water to avoid overheating, melting down and releasing its radioactive contents into the atmosphere. The system operates at extremely high pressure to keep the water in liquid state far above its boiling point. If circulation stops due to power loss or malfunction, a buildup of pressure can cause an explosion, as it did at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan in 2011.



In contrast, new "advanced" reactor designs use alternatives to water for cooling, like liquid metal or special gases.

Natura's design, like many others, uses molten salt. It's not table salt but fluoride salt, a corrosive, crystalline substance that melts around 750 degrees Fahrenheit and remains liquid until 2,600 degrees under regular pressure.

As a result, the reactor can operate at extremely high temperatures without high pressure. If the system ruptures, it won't jettison a plume of steam, but instead leak a molten sludge that hardens in place.


"It doesn't poof into the air and drift around the world," Towell said. "It drips down to a catchpan and freezes to a solid."

Rather than solid fuel rods, Natura's design also uses a liquid uranium fuel that is dissolved into the molten coolant. According to Towell, a former research fellow at Los Alamos National Laboratory, that decreases the amount of radioactive waste produced by the reactor and makes it easier to recycle.

The Kairos reactor design uses molten salt coolant with hundreds of thousands of uranium fuel "pebbles," while the X-energy design uses fuel pebbles with a gas coolant.

Critically, many new reactor designs are also small and modular. Instead of massive, custom construction projects, they are meant to be built in factories with assembly line efficiency and then shipped out on truck trailers and installed on site. That will allow large industrial facilities or data centers to operate their own power sources independent from public electrical grids.

Natura president Doug Robison, a retired oil company executive who worked 13 years as an ExxonMobil landman, said small reactors could run oilfield infrastructure in the Permian Basin, from pumpjacks to compressor stations.

"By powering the oil and gas industry, which uses a tremendous amount of power for their operations, we're helping alleviate the grid pressure," he said.

He also wants to power new treatment plants for the enormous quantities of wastewater produced each day in the Permian Basin. In January, Natura announced a partnership with the state-funded Texas Produced Water Consortium at Texas Tech University aimed at using small reactors to purify oilfield wastewater, most of which is currently pumped underground for disposal.
"It Always Gets Back to the Funding"

The new reactor projects fit into plans by state leaders to establish Texas as a global leader of advanced nuclear reactor technology. In 2023, Gov. Greg Abbott directed the state's Public Utility Commission to study the question and produce a report.

"Texas is well-positioned to lead the country in the development of ANRs," said the 78-page report, issued late last year. "Texas can lead by cutting red tape and establishing incentives to accelerate advanced nuclear deployment, overcome regulator hurdles and attract investment."

The report made several recommendations, and state lawmakers this year have already filed bills to enact several of them, including the creation of a Texas Advanced Nuclear Authority and a nuclear permitting officer. Most significantly, the report also recommended two new public funds to support nuclear energy deployment, including one modeled after the Texas Energy Fund, which was created in 2023 and made $5 billion in financing available for new gas power plants.

"When I talk to folks, it always gets back to the funding," said Thomas Gleeson, chairman of the Public Utility Commission, during the PowerHouse forum. "All of those issues are somewhat ancillary to: How are we going to fund this?"

Gleeson said developers will expect the state to put up at least $100 million per project through public-private partnerships in order to help reduce financial risk.

"Given the load growth in this state that we're projecting, if you want clean air and you want a reliable grid, you have to be in favor of nuclear," he said.

Critics of the plan oppose the use of public money on private projects and worry about safety.

"We don't use tax dollars to fund a bunch of experimental and pie-in-the-sky designs that should be the responsibility of private industry," said John Umphress, a retired Austin Energy program specialist who is evaluating the nuclear efforts on contract for the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen. "Nobody has really penciled out the cost because there's still a lot of proof of concept that's going to have to be pursued before these things get built."

Umphress raised concerns over materials in development to withstand the astronomical temperatures and extremely corrosive qualities of molten salt coolants.

He also noted that the U.S. still lacks a permanent repository for nuclear waste following decades of unsuccessful efforts. Most waste today is stored on site in specialized interim facilities at nuclear power plants, which wouldn't be possible if small reactors were deployed to individual industrial projects.

"That's the big issue that we still haven't solved, but it's not stopping some of these developers from pushing forward with their designs," he said. "They're hoping the federal government will take ownership of the waste and be responsible for its storage and disposal."

During the PowerHouse forum, officials expressed hope that the private sector would develop a solution after new reactor projects create demand for waste disposal.
The Energy Proving Ground

Those reactor projects are still many years away. So far, the NRC has only authorized advanced reactor construction for university research. Next it will issue permits for larger commercial reactors before they can be deployed.

Perhaps the largest early deployment of commercial advanced reactors is set to take place at Texas A&M University. In February, the school announced that four companies had committed to install their commercial reactor designs at a new 2,400-acre "Energy Proving Ground" near its College Station campus.

The site is an old Army air base, currently home to vehicle crash test facilities and an advanced warfare development complex.

The university will build infrastructure there and help streamline permitting for the reactor projects, said Joe Elabd, vice chancellor for research at the Texas A&M System. The university is requesting $200 million in state appropriations to help develop the site, he said.

"We're providing a little bit more of a plug-and-play site for these companies, as opposed to them going to a true greenfield and having to do everything for themselves," he said.

Reactors on the site will be connected to Texas' electrical GRID, Elabd said.

A&M began seeking proposals from companies to build at the site last August, and a panel of university experts selected the four finalists, which include Natura and Kairos.

A Kairos spokesperson, Christopher Ortiz, said the company is building a manufacturing facility in Albuquerque, New Mexico, which will produce the reactors deployed to Texas A&M. He said the company is currently working to identify sites for future commercial reactors, evaluating factors like workforce availability, existing infrastructure and community support.

"The Texas A&M site presents a unique opportunity to site multiple commercial power plants in one location, which makes it particularly attractive," he said.

The site will also include Terrestrial Energy, a Canadian company. And it will include Aalo Atomics, a two-year-old investor-funded startup that is currently building a 40,000-square-foot reactor factory in Austin, which it plans to unveil in April.

More than modular reactors, Aalo plans to produce entire modular power plants, called Aalo Pods, including several reactors, a turbine and a generator, which are designed to be installed at data centers.

"It's made in the factory, shipped to the site and assembled like Legos," said Aalo CEO Matt Loszak.

He estimated five to 10 years for deployment at the A&M site but said that depended on continued financial support from investors. Aalo is developing its reactor design at the Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory, a 70-year-old national nuclear research center.

But Loszak, a former software engineer from Canada, decided to locate his factory in Texas, he said, to be close to massive incoming energy demands and to take advantage of the state's business-friendly approach to regulation.

"Politicians here are really pro-nuclear, they want to see nuclear get built, and that's not the case in other places across the country," he said. "From a regulatory and permitting perspective, it's a great place to build stuff."

Authored by Dylan Baddour of Inside Climate News via Zerohedge.com

Trump’s Oil Tariffs Could Cost Foreign Producers $10 Billion Annually

By Alex Kimani - Feb 24, 2025

Goldman Sachs: a proposed 10% U.S. oil tariff could cost foreign producers $10 billion per year.

Goldman Sachs: oil tariffs would result in a $22 billion annual price tag for U.S. consumers.

Last week, China announced retaliatory tariffs on American energy imports.



Goldman Sachs has provided estimates that a proposed 10% U.S. oil tariff could cost foreign producers $10 billion per year, with Canadian and Latin American heavy crude producers heavily reliant on U.S. refiners due to limited alternative buyers and processing capabilities. Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican crude and a 10% levy on Canadian crude starting in March. However, Goldman Sachs has predicted that the U.S. will remain the primary destination for heavy crude thanks to advanced refining capabilities and low costs. However, Goldman says that U.S. consumers would pay a much higher price, with an annual tariff cost of $22 billion, while the government would generate $20 billion in revenue.

Last week, China announced retaliatory tariffs on American energy imports and also announced an antitrust investigation into Google, just minutes after a sweeping levy on Chinese products imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump took effect. Beijing said it would implement a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) products as well as a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars. Well, the tariffs came into force on 10 February, marking the beginning of another trade war between the world’s biggest economies under Trump. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have delved into the potential effects of the tariffs on the U.S. energy sector.

StanChart has pointed out that China first levied a tariff of 10% on U.S. LNG imports in September 2018 and then increased to 25% in June 2019. StanChart notes that whereas some imports continued at the 10% rate, there were none at the higher rate. Beijing then granted tariff waivers for LNG in February 2020 as part of a trade war de-escalation and after 11 months of zero flows, with the first US cargo arriving in April 2020. According to the analysts, in the following 59 months, there have been cargoes in all but three months. Further, the relationship between U.S. producers and Chinese LNG buyers has deepened with some long-term contracts signed. In contrast, no long-term LNG contracts between the two countries were signed prior to 2021.Related: U.S. Imposes New Sanctions On Iran's Shadow Fleet


However, the potential negative effects of the latest tariffs on LNG are likely to be limited. The U.S. currently provides less than 6% of China LNG imports, while China accounts for just 6% of U.S. exports. With Europe’s demand for U.S. LNG likely to remain robust, StanChart has predicted that displaced flows are unlikely to become distressed. StanChart sees the tariffs cutting the flow of spot cargoes to China dramatically, with some flows under longer-term contracts likely to continue, depending on the nature of re-export clauses. The experts have warned that the biggest threat of these tariffs is the economics of future long-term contracts, including contracts amounting to at least 15 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) that have already been signed.

Oil Prices Steady On Potential Ukraine Peace Deal


Oil prices were little moved on Monday as markets awaited clarity on ongoing talks by the U.S. and Russia to end the war in Ukraine, as well as a potential resumption of crude exports from northern Iraq. Brent crude for April delivery was up 0.4% to trade at $74.76 per barrel at 12.15 pm ET while WTI crude for March delivery gained 0.6% to change hands at $70.77 per barrel.

Trump initiated talks with Russia without inviting Ukraine or the European Union to the table. Russian and U.S. teams plan to meet for further discussions this week. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on Sunday that he is willing to step down if it means peace for his country.

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil prices if Trump pushes for removal of sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Geopolitical stability may also "largely extinguish the still simmering 'fear bid' in the oil market." The latest sanctions by the Biden administration roughly tripled the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). Whereas it’s highly likely that Russia will try to circumvent the sanctions by employing even more shadow fleet tankers and ship-to-ship transfers, StanChart sees 500,000 bpd of displacements over the next six months.

However, the oil price selloff kicked off before Trump’s latest mediation efforts in the Ukraine war thanks to rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the Fed is not rushing to cut interest rates further because the economy is in a good place, but it is prepared to do so if inflation drops or the job market weakens. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can slow economic activity and weaken oil demand. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased at a faster-than-expected clip in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance before cutting interest rates further amid growing uncertainty over the economy. The CPI jumped 0.5% last month, up from 0.4% in December, and advanced 3.0% in the 12 months through January after advancing 2.9% in December.


By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Is Trump Breaking the Wind Industry?

By Julianne Geiger - Feb 25, 2025

On his first day in office, President Trump paused leasing and permitting for new wind energy projects.

Wind developers are now playing a high-stakes waiting game.

Rising costs, supply chain snags, and high interest rates plagued the wind energy industry already before Trump took office.



The Biden administration wanted to paint America’s skies with spinning blades, but Trump has once again sent the wind industry into a tizzy.

On Trump's first day back in office, he took an axe to federal wind policies, pausing leasing and permitting for new projects and leaving developers in limbo. Offshore and onshore wind giants—Shell, TotalEnergies, and Orsted among them, according to the WSJ—are suddenly staring at billion-dollar write-downs and wondering if their investments just got sucked into a policy tornado.

“We aren’t going to do the wind thing,” Trump declared at a rally earlier this year, dismissing turbines as “big ugly windmills” that “ruin your neighborhood.”

Love him or hate him, the man is consistent.

The Permitting Freeze and Its Fallout

The immediate fallout is a regulatory standstill. The Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the Bureau of Land Management are all reassessing their roles in permitting. The Lava Ridge Wind Project in Idaho was specifically called out in Trump’s executive order, at the urging of Senator Jim Risch, who praised the decision, saying, “He gets it. It’s not a hard lift because he shares my reticence about windmills.”

Wind developers are now playing a high-stakes waiting game. It’s not just about missing out on tax credits from Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (which Trump has labeled a “scam”), but about the industry’s ability to plan for the long term. David Hindman of AlixPartners summed up the uncertainty: “All parties—developers, financers, others—are going to want to have more certainty than we have now.” And certainty is in short supply.

The Trump Doctrine: Fossil Fuels First

Trump isn’t just hitting pause on wind—he’s fast-tracking fossil fuels. His first move? Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. Again. “I’m immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off,” he announced. His second move? Reversing Biden’s restrictions on offshore oil and gas drilling.

Trump’s philosophy is simple: More drilling, more exports, and energy dominance. “America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have: the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth.”

Hyperbole aside (according to Rystad, OPEC members held 40% of the world's total recoverable oil reserves at 657 billion barrels, with Saudi Arabia holding the top spot at 247 billion barrels, with the United States holding the next recoverable--not proven--oil reserves powerhouse with 156 billion barrels), his administration has promised to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, drive energy prices down, and boost U.S. exports—while giving wind and solar the cold shoulder. But will the energy industry play ball? Oil producers have already signaled that they appreciate the friendlier regulatory environment but are unlikely to jump back into “drill, baby, drill” mode with both feet unless market conditions demand it.

Trump can clear bureaucratic hurdles, but he can’t force private companies to flood the market with oil.

A Wind Industry Already Facing Headwinds

To be fair, the wind industry was already struggling before Trump slammed on the brakes. Rising costs, supply chain snags, and high interest rates had already put projects on shaky ground. Offshore wind, in particular, has been an expensive experiment in patience. Germany’s biggest utility, RWE, recently pointed out that offshore wind costs 30% more in the U.S. than in Europe. And with interest rates still biting, investors are less eager to pour money into projects with long payback periods.

Biden had ambitious offshore wind goals—up to 12 lease auctions by 2028, with a vision for a zero-emission grid by 2035. But even with tax credits and federal backing, developers were canceling projects left and right due to cost overruns. Now, with Trump freezing federal support, those cancellations might turn into an industry-wide exodus.

Is This the End of U.S. Wind?

Even if Trump guts federal incentives, wind energy still has traction at the state level. Texas and Iowa, both deeply red states, have quietly become wind powerhouses thanks to favorable economics. And while offshore wind may take a hit, onshore wind and solar could keep growing—especially if power companies continue to push for renewables as a hedge against fossil fuel volatility.

For now, though, the industry is stuck in purgatory. No new federal leases, no permitting clarity, and the looming threat of tax credit rollbacks mean developers are going to tread cautiously.

Trump has made his stance clear: Fossil fuels are king, and wind is an eyesore. His permitting freeze has left the U.S. wind industry in a state of paralysis, and unless states pick up the slack, new projects are in danger of grinding to a halt. Meanwhile, oil and gas are back in the driver’s seat—at least for now.

Whether this is a long-term death blow for U.S. wind or just another political speed bump will depend on what happens in the courts, on Wall Street, and—of course—at the ballot box in 2028.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

Tshisekedi seeks mineral deal with US and EU as M23 gains ground in eastern DRC

24 February 2025


Congolese president Felix Tshisekedi has called on the US and EU to buy minerals directly from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). His appeal comes as M23 advances in eastern DRC, seizing Goma and other key cities.

Tshisekedi’s spokesperson, Tina Salama, said on X the offer was first extended to the U.S., arguing that the Trump administration had exposed Rwanda’s role in exploiting DRC’s wealth. She then added that the proposal was also open to European nations, warning that “receiving stolen goods will become increasingly complicated.”

The EU and US currently source minerals such as coltan and cobalt from Rwanda. This is facing growing scrutiny as M23 expands its control over Congo’s resource-rich areas. The European Parliament has already called for suspending the EU’s 935 million euro deal with Rwanda over concerns about illicit minerals. On Monday, the EU Foreign Affairs Council will debate the suspension and consider further sanctions.

M23-advance

M23, which resurfaced in 2021, has captured Bukavu and is now advancing toward Uvira, near Burundi’s border. The militant group seized the city of Goma in January. Over 3,000 people were killed and thousands were displaced in the fighting.

Tshisekedi has rejected direct talks with M23 and has insisted on negotiations with Rwanda instead. As peace efforts falter and the DRC military struggles to contain rebel advances, Kinshasa is betting on Western support to regain control over its territory and resources.

The Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) struggle to keep control over mineral-rich areas in the east of the country, where the Rwandan-backed group M23 is seizing towns 

© Luis TATO / AFP

Democratic Republic Of The Congo Offers Resources In Exchange For Security Support

The President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has offered the United States and the European Union access to its mineral deposits in exchange for security support to deter Rwanda.

24 February, 2025March 23 Movement fighters in the captured city of Goma, DR Congo, February 2025

The New York Times reported on this.

In order to deter the aggression of the Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement militants, who are increasingly advancing in the east of the country, President Félix Tshisekedi has offered the United States and the European Union access to its mineral resources.

The country has some of the world’s largest mineral reserves, such as gold, tin, and tantalum, which are critical materials for the production of microelectronics and batteries. The country’s coltan deposits account for most of the world’s tantalum production. It also contains more than half of the world’s reserves of cobalt, which is used in electric vehicles.

Tshisekedi is pinning his hopes on Western pressure on Rwanda, hoping that large investments in Congo, including a possible minerals deal, will bring his country much more security and stability. He said the Trump administration had already shown interest in the deal.

China now has far more access to Congo’s mineral wealth than the United States, while the European Union has negotiated with Rwanda, agreeing to provide it with about $935 million in exchange for access to minerals such as tin, tungsten and gold.
Hybrid war with Rwanda

Earlier this year, the paramilitary group of the March 23 Movement, also known as M23, began fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, rapidly seizing key cities and territories.

After taking control of the small town of Sake, the Rwandan-backed militants launched an operation on April 27 to surround Goma, the largest city in the eastern part of the DRC, and Bukavu, the administrative center of South Kivu province.



Having driven government forces out of the besieged border town on January 30, the militants took control of key positions and the Mpumalanga airport, which was located in the middle of a building and was home to troops and Congolese warplanes.

One of the successes of the rebels of the March 23 Movement was the capture of Congolese armored vehicles and artillery, in particular, T-55 tanks, BATT UMG armored vehicles, 122 mm D-30 and M-30 howitzers, as well as the Bastion multiple rocket launcher system, which was purchased in Ukraine.

However, the most significant trophy of the militants was a Su-25 attack aircraft based at the captured airport.

A DR Congo Su-25 attack aircraft captured by March 23 Movement militants, January 30, 2025. Photo: RBA Digital

Following these successes, the March 23 Movement continued its advance, attacking the main government positions on the road to Butembo, a town north of Goma.

China cobalt stocks jump as Congo exports ban sparks “chaos”

Bloomberg News | February 25, 2025 |

Processing facilities at Tenke Fungurume mine. (Image courtesy of Lundin Mining.)

Cobalt stocks rose in China on Tuesday as a surprise export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo lifted the near-term outlook for the material used in alloys and batteries.


Shares in Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co. jumped as much as 17% in Shenzhen, while Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. rose as much as 7.8%. Meanwhile, CMOC Group Ltd., which has been ramping up its two giant mines in Congo, slipped 2% in Hong Kong.

Congo, the top producer of the raw material, is suspending cobalt exports for four months in an attempt to rein in global oversupply. The government also said it will prepare additional measures to balance the market. The news has sent shockwaves through the industry as Congo’s cobalt production accounts for about three-quarters of world’s total.

“Everybody is panicking and we don’t know how to secure the material,” said Ian Liu, cobalt procurement director at CNGR Advanced Material Co., a Chinese battery-component manufacturer. “We need a long-term mechanism to support cobalt prices, not a sudden halt on exports, which will cause chaos downstream,” he said at a Fastmarkets conference in Shanghai on Tuesday.

The African nation’s production has increased in recent years thanks to the expansion from China’s CMOC, but that has also pushed down prices. Benchmark metal has dropped below $10 a pound, a level not breached for 21 years apart from a brief dip in late 2015, according to Fastmarkets data. Cobalt hydroxide, the main form of the metal produced in Congo, has slid below $6 a pound.

Congo’s policy could cut global cobalt supply by around 20,000 tons a month, but the market has adequate inventory to fill the gap, Xu Aidong, an analyst with Beijing Antaike Information Co. said on the sidelines of the Shanghai conference.

While questions remains over policy uncertainty in the Congo after four months, the ban, for now, could be a blessing for companies in Indonesia, the second-biggest cobalt producing country that’s seeing a growing share in the global market.

US, Ukraine reach minerals deal

IT'S ALL OVER BUT THE CRYING

Staff Writer | February 25, 2025 | 

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Credit: Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s official X account

The United States and Ukraine have reached terms on a critical minerals deal, media outlets including the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, in a move Trump administration regards as crucial to brokering a ceasefire with Russia.


Earlier this week, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said that the minerals deal is close, and a new draft has been almost agreed for both country’s leaders to sign off on. Ukraine’s parliament is expected to recommend on Wednesday that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sign the deal.

Sources later confirmed to Reuters that Zelenskiy is due in Washington on Friday make the deal official.

Both sides have been locked in negotiations since Ukraine rejected the initial offer presented by the US earlier this month. President Zelenskiy has repeatedly stated that guaranteed US military support must be part of any deal. A breakthrough was made this past weekend when the US reduced its demand of $500 billion worth of critical mineral resources as repayment for military aid.

Various reports have suggested that Ukraine has upwards of $10 trillion in mineral deposits, including those containing rare earth elements that are essential to defense and other high-tech industries. However, these deposits have yet to be internationally recognized as economically viable. Ukrainian data shows that the country has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the EU as critical.

While details of the agreement are undisclosed, and it is expected that the parties will jointly develop these minerals on a 50/50 basis.

On the US side, a deal represents a way for President Donald Trump to encourage buy-in from his supporters for continued backing for Ukraine, which relies on US and European allies for weapons and ammunition.

Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato institute, told Bloomberg that the deal was about Trump being able to “domestically market a political win,” and for Zelenskiy about deescalating tensions with the US.