PANDEMICS, PLACES, AND POPULATIONS:EVIDENCE FROM THE BLACK DEATH Mark Koyama, Remi Jedwab and Noel Johnson

Discussion Paper DP13523 
 Published 12 February 2019
 Submitted 11 February 2019 

Centre for Economic Policy Research 
 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK 
 www.cepr.org 

Abstract 
The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347-1352, making it one of the largest shocks in history. Despite its importance, little is known about its spatial effects and the effects of pandemics more generally. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in Plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of the Black Death on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. In addition, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with a Malthusian model in which population returns to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study highlights the role played by pandemics in determining both the sizes and placements of populations.

Pandemics, places, and populations: Evidence from the Black Death

Rémi Jedwab, Noel Johnson, Mark Koyama 08 May 2019

The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1352, but little is known about its spatial effects. The column uses variation in Plague mortality at the city level to explore the short-run and long-run impacts on city growth. After less than 200 years the impact of Black Death mortality in cities was close to zero, but the rate of urban recovery depended on advantages that favoured trade.