Wednesday, October 05, 2022

Brazil election: Third-place candidate endorses Lula ahead of runoff

Simone Tebet urged her voters to back Lula due to his "commitment to democracy." Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso also endorsed his leftist former rival.

Lula is currently leading in the polls, but pollsters overestimated his win on Sunday

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has received two major endorsements as his campaign prepares for a runoff election against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro on October 30.

Simone Tebet, the center-right candidate who came in third place during the first round with 4% of the vote, called on the 5 million people who voted for her to back Lula in the second round.

"For my love for Brazil, for democracy and for the constitution, for the courage I never lacked, I apologize to my friends and companions who begged for neutrality in this second round," Tebet told reporters in Sao Paulo. "What is at stake is far greater than each of us."

Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, was popular among some conservative voters and women. Analysts say her endorsement of Lula is a symbolic win for the leftist who was president from 2003 to 2010.

"I maintain my criticism of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva," she added. "But I will give him my vote, because I recognize his commitment to democracy and the constitution, which I have never seen from the current president."

Former president backs Lula

On the same day, former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who is still respected in business circles, announced he too would cast his vote for Lula's "history of struggle for democracy and social inclusion" over Bolsonaro.

The 91-year-old posted photos of himself with a young Lula distributing pro-democracy pamphlets during the military dictatorship that lasted from 1964 to 1985.

Lula was defeated by Cardoso at the 1994 and 1998 presidential elections until he eventually won against a different candidate in 2002.

Lula leading in the polls

An opinion poll released on Wednesday by IPEC found that Lula had 51% voter support compared to 43% for Bolsonaro.

The poll surveyed 2,000 with a error margin of 2 percentage points.

However, IPEC and other pollsters also projected that Lula would have a more decisive lead over Bolsonaro than the slimmer margin that actually eventuated during the first round.

After his better-than-expected result on Sunday, Bolsonaro told reporters: "We beat the lie."

"Now the campaign is ours," he said. "I’m completely confident."

zc/wd (AP, AFP, Reuters)

LATIN AMERICA | TODAY 

Experts: Lula must fight for centre to win Brazil run-off


Known as a deft politician, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will need to tap his acumen to strike alliances if he is to defeat Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 showdown.

To prevail in Brazil's tighter-than-expected presidential run-off, leftist veteran Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will have to strike alliances with centrists, woo the business sector and offer voters more than just his legacy, analysts say.

The long-time front-runner may have won last Sunday's first-round vote against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, but the latter appears to have the momentum, having shattered pollsters' forecasts of a rout to finish within five points of Lula and force a second round.

If Lula is to stymy Bolsonaro, analysts say, he will have to redouble his efforts to win back the political middle, still disillusioned over the devastating corruption charges – since annulled – that controversially sent him to jail in 2018.

The 76-year-old Workers' Party (PT) founder acknowledged as much himself after Sunday's disappointing results.

"We'll have to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time talking to voters... those who appear not to like us," he said Monday after meeting his campaign team to chart their strategy for the final stretch. "Little peace-and-love Lula is ready to talk to everyone."

Known as a deft politician, Lula will need to tap that acumen to strike alliances.

"He will have to make some gestures and concessions" to the centre-left and centre-right, whose votes Bolsonaro will also be after, said political analyst Leandro Gabiati, head of consulting firm Dominium.

Lula already made a giant nod to centrists by picking centre-right veteran Geraldo Alckmin – the candidate he beat in the 2006 presidential race – as his running-mate.

Now he needs to chase the votes that went to Sunday's third- and fourth-place finishers, centre-right candidate Simone Tebet (four percent) and centre-left candidate Ciro Gomes (three percent).

Lula got a clutch endorsement Tuesday from Gomes' Democratic Labour Party (PDT), despite a long history of animosity between the two men.

Gomes grudgingly went along, saying in a video he "supported" the endorsement as "the only exit, under the circumstances."


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Alberto Fernández congratulates 'dear' Lula for Brazil election 'victory'

Getting the backing of Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, could meanwhile be key to luring socially conservative women voters. She is ready to back Lula. But it will be another matter winning over her party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has a strong pro-Bolsonaro wing.

"Make your decision soon. Mine is already made," Tebet told the divided party's leadership.

Big spending shelved

Lula will also have to sell the business sector on his plans for Latin America's biggest economy. He presided over a watershed economic boom in the 2000s, blending market-friendly policy with ambitious social programmes.

But Bolsonaro has more backing from the market this time around – as seen when stocks surged Monday on his better-than-expected showing.

Lula will have to be "malleable" on economic policy to woo the business sector, said Arthur Ituassu, professor of political communication at Pontifical Catholic University in Rio de Janeiro.

The former president will likely have to renegotiate his plans to expand social spending and overhaul the tax system, Ituassu said.

"That's going to be fundamental," he said. "That's how he wins the volatile centre."

Back to the future?


Lula, who left office basking in a record 87-percent approval rating, also must stop leaning so heavily on his legacy and offer voters concrete, forward-looking policy plans, analysts say.

"He's only talked about his achievements from his past administrations," said Paulo Calmon, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia. "He needs to present plans for the future."

If that weren't enough, the former president also will have to perform one final feat of political gymnastics: execute all the above without losing the 57 million votes he won Sunday.

"A lot of voters who aren't necessarily on the left voted for Lula out of anti-Bolsonaro sentiment," said Dominium's Gabiati. "But if Bolsonaro improves his message, he might reverse that rejection... and win that vote."

Lula and Bolsonaro court new allies for Brazil’s competitive Oct. 30 runoff

ANTHONY BOADLE AND RICARDO BRITO
BRASILIA
REUTERS
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY
Brazil's former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gives a statement to the media in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Oct. 3
.


Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his leftist challenger were hunting endorsements on Tuesday, party officials said, as they fine tuned their campaigns for a runoff in an election that has proven more competitive than expected.

Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won 48.4% of the votes on Sunday, just short of the majority needed for an outright win against the far-right Bolsonaro, whose surprisingly strong showing won him 43.2% of votes.

The highly polarized race, marked by threats from Bolsonaro that he might contest the results, will be decided on Oct. 30.

Lula’s Workers Party has begun to reach out to the parties whose presidential candidates placed third and fourth on Sunday – Simon Tebet of the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement party and Ciro Gomes of the left-of-center Democratic Labor Party (PDT) – to win their endorsement.

Tebet, who won 4.16% of the votes, is expected to back Lula and could announce her support on Tuesday, though some sectors of her arty may still lean toward Bolsonaro.

“Simone (Tebet) will likely join Lula. Ciro (Gomes) is likely to abstain,” said analyst Leonardo Barreto, director of political consultancy Vector.

Although a history of clashes between Gomes and Lula may stand in the way of a personal endorsement, Barreto said PDT leadership could still throw their support behind the leftist.

Bolsonaro also nailed a key endorsement on Tuesday, meeting with the newly re-elected governor of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s second-most populous state. Governor Romeu Zema, who stayed neutral in the first round of the election, formally endorsed Bolsonaro after their meeting in Brasilia.

“Zema’s support is more than welcome, it is decisive for my re-election,” Bolsonaro told reporters after the meeting.

The president also enters the second round with wind in his sails after his surprising success in rallying conservative sentiment, turning his Liberal Party into the largest in both chambers of Congress in Sunday’s general election.

“We always knew Brazil was a conservative country, but we did not realize it was so conservative,” said a campaign adviser who asked not to be named.

Party officials said Bolsonaro’s strategy will now focus on drawing more votes from women while toning down the attacks on Brazil’s electronic voting machines.

The president is planning to increase payments to women who are breadwinners with an extra year-end payment under an expanded welfare program, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.

The initiative, which would go into effect next year, could help Bolsonaro’s popularity with women and poor families, two segments where he has faced resistance.

“His runoff campaign will have a positive agenda, with less attacks on Lula and no criticism of the electronic voting system,” said the campaign aide.

Bolsonaro’s attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electoral system, suggestions that he may not concede if he loses and pressure on the military to conduct a parallel vote count have made this election the most tense in Brazil in decades.

Election result showed Brazil's far-right was sold short, say analysts

Jair Bolsonaro was not the only one to have a surprisingly strong night in Brazil's elections: the far-right incumbent's allies also outperformed expectations in key congressional and governor's races.

If anything, last Sunday's surprise first-round election surge for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro revealed a bigger-than expected appetite for his polarising brand of conservative "God, homeland and family" politics, analysts say.

Bolsonaro got nearly two million more votes on Sunday than during his 2018 election, coming in at 43 percent of the vote compared to 48 percent for his opponent, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The incumbent president went into the first round with about 36 percent of polled voters saying they intended to vote for him. But instead of trailing Lula by 14 percentage points as predicted by pollsters, Bolsonaro ended the vote only five points or about six million votes behind, and a real chance at a second term.

"A demonstration of the strength of Bolsonarismo," the Folha de São Paulo daily announced on its front page – referring to the incumbent's mix of pro-God, anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, anti-left and anti-establishment political rhetoric.

"Bolsonarismo is growing more and more, and this is a reflection of a very conservative country," voter Mateus Alcantara, a 26-year-old publicist, told AFP in Rio de Janeiro in the aftermath of Sunday's vote.

His country, he added, was living a moment of "enormous polarisation."

Bolsonaro was thought to be entering the race damaged by a controversial four-year tenure marked by a shocking pandemic death toll blamed in part on his Covid-sceptic approach, surging destruction of the Amazon rainforest, and a sharp rise in Brazilians living in hunger

He is frequently criticised for racist, homophobic and sexist remarks and for his vitriolic, combative approach to the media and critics.

But Bolsonaro's "Bibles, bullets and beef" base – Evangelical Christians, security hardliners and the powerful agribusiness sector – now appears to be larger than thought.

"This election shows how deeply rooted the conservative movement is in Brazil," sociologist Angela Alonso of the University of São Paulo wrote in a Folha de São Paulo opinion piece.

'More to the right'


Bolsonaro could also boast with better-than-predicted performances by many of his allies in congressional and gubernatorial races.

With his election in 2018, Brazil experienced an unprecedented wave in ultra-conservative voting that analysts at the time attributed to disgust with Lula's Workers' Party and its connection to a string of corruption scandals.

Now it seems that was not merely a reactive vote. More than half the senators elected in the first round last Sunday (15 out of 27) are Bolsonaro allies and his Liberal Party is on track to be the largest party in the lower house of Congress.

Victors included highly-controversial Bolsonarists such as Eduardo Pazuello, who led the Health Ministry during the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic from May 2020 to March 2021.

Pazuello, who won a seat for Rio de Janeiro, had appeared before a Senate committee investigating a shortage of medical oxygen that caused the deaths of several dozens of patients in the northern city of Manaus.

"The polls had failed to perceive the strength of Jair Bolsonaro and his candidates," commentator Vera Magalhães noted in an editorial for the O Globo daily.

The results, she added, had been "more to the right than predicted."

Common touch


For Jairo Nicolau, a political scientist at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, "some Brazilians are far-right, but Bolsonarism is more an expression of the country’s conservative movement."

His movement had replaced centre-right parties like the PSDB in power in the 1990s.

"The PSDB was a party of elites... This is where Bolsonaro makes a difference: he is truly a leader with the common touch, something the Brazilian right has not had for a long time," added analyst Mayra Goulart.

Commentator Jamil Chade with the website UOL drew parallels with populist movements in Viktor Orban’s Hungary or in the United States under Donald Trump.

Like there, "the Bolsonarists' strategy is to delegitimise the press, civil society or any external control body by creating channels of direct communication with the population to spread lies," he said.


Big night for far-right

Jair Bolsonaro was not the only one to have a surprisingly strong night in Brazil's elections: the far-right incumbent's allies also beat expectations in congressional and governor's races.

Political analysts say that means hardline conservatives will be powerful players in the Latin American giant's new political landscape, weakening leftist front-runner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his Workers' Party (PT), even if he beats Bolsonaro in the October 30 presidential run-off.

Here’s a look at some of the big wins for "Bolsonarismo":


Congress

Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) is on track to be the largest party in the lower house of Congress, according to analysts. Its newly elected congressmen include some of Bolsonaro's most controversial allies:

– Ex-environment minister Ricardo Salles won a seat for São Paulo. He presided over a surge in destruction in the Amazon rainforest and was forced to resign last year after coming under investigation for involvement in a timber-trafficking scheme.

– Ex-health minister Eduardo Pazuello won a seat for Rio de Janeiro. The Army general oversaw Brazil's response to Covid-19 during the worst phase of the pandemic, when hundreds of thousands of people died and severe oxygen shortages brought the health system in the northern city of Manaus to the brink of collapse.

– PL candidate Nikolas Ferreira, a 26-year-old social media personality, was the most-voted congressman-elect in the country, winning 1.4 million votes.

Senate


The PL and its allies won at least 15 of the 27 seats up for grabs in the 81-member Senate. Bolsonaro allies elected include:

– Former football star Romario, a Senate member since 2015.

– Ex-science minister Marcos Ponte, Brazil's first and only astronaut, who defied opinion polls to beat Lula ally Márcio França in São Paulo.

– Ex-women's minister Damares Alves.

– Ex-agriculture minister Tereza Cristina.

– Ex-development minister Rogerio Marino.

– Vice-President Hamilton Mourão, an Army reserve general.

Governors

Far-right incumbent Claudio Castro (PL) easily won re-election as Rio de Janeiro state governor.

In São Paulo, Brazil's most populous and wealthiest state, PL candidate Tarcisio Freitas, Bolsonaro's former infrastructure minister and a top ally, shattered forecasts to win the first-round vote and force a run-off with Lula protégé Fernando Haddad.

Frenemies

Adding to the bleak picture for Lula's camp, the lead judge and prosecutor who sent him to jail on controversial corruption charges – since overturned – both won seats in the Senate.

Ex-judge Sergio Moro and ex-prosecutor Delton Dallagnol are not exactly Bolsonaro allies – especially Moro, who quit his post as the far-right president's justice minister in 2020, accusing Bolsonaro of interfering in police investigations. But they are certainly no friends of Lula, whom their mega-graft-busting probe, Operation Lava Jato (“Car Wash”), sent to prison for 18 months.

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