Victoria Fetcher
December 30, 2022
(Bloomberg) – When Myanmar carried out the death penalty in July by executing four activists for the first time in three decades, China and Russia remained silent while the US and its allies condemned the junta. Now the regime is about to do it again.
Seven university students were sentenced to death by a secret military tribunal last month for their alleged involvement in the shooting death of a retired military officer, and their punishment could come at any time.
They are among more than 130 people who have been put on death row since the junta seized control in a coup last year, ousting former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose sentence has now been extended to 33 years.
The military is employing increasingly brutal tactics to subdue its enemies – even as it further cements Myanmar as a pariah state abroad. A rare United Nations Security Council resolution last week called for an end to the violence and the release of all political prisoners.
But with China, Russia and India abstaining on the UN vote, it’s unlikely to make much of a difference as the junta sees regimes from Iran to North Korea defy international sanctions and test the will of world powers.
“With India on your side, with China not your enemy – a bit upset about what happened but clearly not keen on bringing Myanmar, with Russia a strong backer, the world looked like a comfortable enough place,” said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at the International Crisis Group.
Western sanctions on coup leaders and related companies, and an exodus of investors, have hurt the junta’s finances. But while presiding over an economy in disarray, it retains control of major economic interests, including lucrative natural gas exports.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s armed groups remain divided, with different factions fighting across the country. International support was elusive as Western aid flowed to Ukraine and diplomatic efforts were ineffective.
Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, senior spokesman for Myanmar’s ruling State Administrative Council, did not respond to requests for comment.
“The junta attaches little importance to international consensus or outside pressure,” said Hunter Marston, a research fellow at Melbourne’s La Trobe University, who has been following developments in Southeast Asia since 2007, of course, as long as no country sends troops to stop it. “
Solid ties
The impending executions point to a regime unable to look beyond immediate challenges as it struggles to hold territory against Suu Kyi supporters and ethnic armed groups. While the junta patrols key cities, it has stable control of only 17% of the country’s total land area, according to a group of Myanmar experts.
It is increasingly turning to airstrikes to secure ground. In October, the US and European nations accused them of causing “extraordinary harm” to civilians after more than 60 people were killed in an airstrike on a concert organized by ethnic rebels.
The regime has also failed to stabilize an economy that shrank 18% last year and is now experiencing rising inflation, a weakening currency and dwindling foreign exchange reserves. Myanmar approved inbound investment worth just US$1.46 billion in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, down 56.4% year-on-year.
This is where China and Russia have become of significant importance to the junta.
China remains Myanmar’s largest trading partner and continues to play a key role in its economic development. When China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar earlier this year, he said ties remained “rock-solid and unbreakable” and he praised cooperation on projects such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
What is not clear is how far this work is progressing. Government data on foreign investment shows that less than $100 million has come from China so far this fiscal year, with Singapore topping the list of foreign investors.
Military chief Min Aung Hlaing has increasingly turned to Russia for support, visiting the country at least twice this year and hailing Vladimir Putin as the “leader of the world.” The two sides have since made several economic pacts to strengthen ties.
Russia’s ambassador to Myanmar, Nikolay Listopadov, told Bloomberg News sanctions and international pressure would only exacerbate the crisis. He said Russia “never interferes in internal affairs” but supports the release of political prisoners and dialogue between all parties involved.
With Russia and China continuing to show support, Myanmar’s military will see little reason to deviate from a level of brutality that has surpassed that of previous regimes.
“China and Russia only care about their business and not about human rights and democracy,” said Soe Thura Tun, Minister of Electricity and Energy of the shadow government of national unity. “They have been in discussions with the junta to ensure that they become early risers for profitable projects in the long term.”
Deposed leader
Suu Kyi, 77, had his sentence extended to 33 years after completing an 18-month series of trials. A special court on Friday found her guilty of five corruption charges during her reign and extended her sentence by a further seven years.
Since the coup that overthrew Suu Kyi’s government and resulted in the deaths of more than 2,600 people, the US has spearheaded efforts to punish the regime. But it is wary of measures that could harm the country’s 55-million population, and the Western response has been largely limited to humanitarian aid, targeted financial sanctions and working with Myanmar’s Southeast Asian neighbors to pressure the junta.
America’s major security partners in the region, including Australia, have refused to impose sanctions, opting instead to keep lines of communication open. Japan has strong business ties, while India has known ties to the junta. Last month, Myanmar released four foreign prisoners under an amnesty, including Suu Kyi’s former adviser, Australian economist Sean Turnell, and a Japanese filmmaker.
“This is probably something we see as the end result of these governments’ diplomatic efforts,” said Moe Thuzar, a fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “But the death sentences that have been passed are against Burmese nationals, so we have to be aware of that too.”
(Updates with Aung San Suu Kyi’s verdict)
Most Read by Bloomberg Businessweek
(Bloomberg) – When Myanmar carried out the death penalty in July by executing four activists for the first time in three decades, China and Russia remained silent while the US and its allies condemned the junta. Now the regime is about to do it again.
Seven university students were sentenced to death by a secret military tribunal last month for their alleged involvement in the shooting death of a retired military officer, and their punishment could come at any time.
They are among more than 130 people who have been put on death row since the junta seized control in a coup last year, ousting former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose sentence has now been extended to 33 years.
The military is employing increasingly brutal tactics to subdue its enemies – even as it further cements Myanmar as a pariah state abroad. A rare United Nations Security Council resolution last week called for an end to the violence and the release of all political prisoners.
But with China, Russia and India abstaining on the UN vote, it’s unlikely to make much of a difference as the junta sees regimes from Iran to North Korea defy international sanctions and test the will of world powers.
“With India on your side, with China not your enemy – a bit upset about what happened but clearly not keen on bringing Myanmar, with Russia a strong backer, the world looked like a comfortable enough place,” said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at the International Crisis Group.
Western sanctions on coup leaders and related companies, and an exodus of investors, have hurt the junta’s finances. But while presiding over an economy in disarray, it retains control of major economic interests, including lucrative natural gas exports.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s armed groups remain divided, with different factions fighting across the country. International support was elusive as Western aid flowed to Ukraine and diplomatic efforts were ineffective.
Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun, senior spokesman for Myanmar’s ruling State Administrative Council, did not respond to requests for comment.
“The junta attaches little importance to international consensus or outside pressure,” said Hunter Marston, a research fellow at Melbourne’s La Trobe University, who has been following developments in Southeast Asia since 2007, of course, as long as no country sends troops to stop it. “
Solid ties
The impending executions point to a regime unable to look beyond immediate challenges as it struggles to hold territory against Suu Kyi supporters and ethnic armed groups. While the junta patrols key cities, it has stable control of only 17% of the country’s total land area, according to a group of Myanmar experts.
It is increasingly turning to airstrikes to secure ground. In October, the US and European nations accused them of causing “extraordinary harm” to civilians after more than 60 people were killed in an airstrike on a concert organized by ethnic rebels.
The regime has also failed to stabilize an economy that shrank 18% last year and is now experiencing rising inflation, a weakening currency and dwindling foreign exchange reserves. Myanmar approved inbound investment worth just US$1.46 billion in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, down 56.4% year-on-year.
This is where China and Russia have become of significant importance to the junta.
China remains Myanmar’s largest trading partner and continues to play a key role in its economic development. When China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar earlier this year, he said ties remained “rock-solid and unbreakable” and he praised cooperation on projects such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
What is not clear is how far this work is progressing. Government data on foreign investment shows that less than $100 million has come from China so far this fiscal year, with Singapore topping the list of foreign investors.
Military chief Min Aung Hlaing has increasingly turned to Russia for support, visiting the country at least twice this year and hailing Vladimir Putin as the “leader of the world.” The two sides have since made several economic pacts to strengthen ties.
Russia’s ambassador to Myanmar, Nikolay Listopadov, told Bloomberg News sanctions and international pressure would only exacerbate the crisis. He said Russia “never interferes in internal affairs” but supports the release of political prisoners and dialogue between all parties involved.
With Russia and China continuing to show support, Myanmar’s military will see little reason to deviate from a level of brutality that has surpassed that of previous regimes.
“China and Russia only care about their business and not about human rights and democracy,” said Soe Thura Tun, Minister of Electricity and Energy of the shadow government of national unity. “They have been in discussions with the junta to ensure that they become early risers for profitable projects in the long term.”
Deposed leader
Suu Kyi, 77, had his sentence extended to 33 years after completing an 18-month series of trials. A special court on Friday found her guilty of five corruption charges during her reign and extended her sentence by a further seven years.
Since the coup that overthrew Suu Kyi’s government and resulted in the deaths of more than 2,600 people, the US has spearheaded efforts to punish the regime. But it is wary of measures that could harm the country’s 55-million population, and the Western response has been largely limited to humanitarian aid, targeted financial sanctions and working with Myanmar’s Southeast Asian neighbors to pressure the junta.
America’s major security partners in the region, including Australia, have refused to impose sanctions, opting instead to keep lines of communication open. Japan has strong business ties, while India has known ties to the junta. Last month, Myanmar released four foreign prisoners under an amnesty, including Suu Kyi’s former adviser, Australian economist Sean Turnell, and a Japanese filmmaker.
“This is probably something we see as the end result of these governments’ diplomatic efforts,” said Moe Thuzar, a fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “But the death sentences that have been passed are against Burmese nationals, so we have to be aware of that too.”
(Updates with Aung San Suu Kyi’s verdict)
Most Read by Bloomberg Businessweek
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