Saudi Arabia-Iran détente: a setback for Israel and wake-up call on relations with US
Reuters Published March 13, 2023
Saudi Minister of State and National Security Adviser Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban, meets the Iranian Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, in Beijing, China, March 10, 2023. — Saudi Press Agency/Handout via Reuters
JERUSALEM: The Saudi-Iran detente sets back Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to isolate Tehran, but time will tell whether it also hinders his outreach to Riyadh or planning for any eventual military strike against Iranian nuclear sites.
The more pressing worry for Israel, some experts argue, is that Friday’s Chinese-brokered deal between the top Muslim powers suggests the United States is giving ground in the region just when the Netanyahu government needs it most.
An Israeli official who requested anonymity described the detente as an unsurprising and preliminary process that should not hinder any parallel progress towards normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. After all, Israel has drawn close to the United Arab Emirates despite Abu Dhabi also engaging Tehran.
Meanwhile, Israel is keeping up a campaign of veiled threats to attack Iran alone if it deems nuclear diplomacy a dead end. But all scenarios still hinge on Washington — a sponsor and sweetener of Israeli-Arab peace accords and guardian ally which, if it red-lights military action, Israel will be loath to cross.
“This is a brilliant stroke by China and Iran to undercut Saudi-American and Saudi-Israeli normalisation. It helps bring Tehran in from the cold and undermines American and Israeli efforts to build a regional coalition to confront Iran as it is on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons,” said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies in Washington.
There are unrelated strains on the Israeli-US alliance, however. The Democratic administration of President Joe Biden, which has yet to invite Netanyahu to the White House, has voiced unusually strong concern at his religious-nationalist coalition.
Netanyahu is also beset by unprecedented mass demonstrations in Israel against his judicial overhaul push. The protests have included pledges by some air force reservists not to turn up for training, a signal that combat readiness and morale have been shaken.
Amos Yadlin, a former military intelligence chief under Netanyahu, said the Saudi-Iran detente should be a wake-up call.
“The government’s focus on the judicial overhaul, which is tearing the nation apart and weakening Israel in all dimensions, reflects a deep disconnect between Netanyahu and international geopolitical trends,” Yadlin said on Twitter.
Screengrab of Amos Yadlin’s tweet.
Accusing Netanyahu of “generating extraordinary damage to our national security,” Yadlin said he should scrap the reforms — which critics call an attempt to subordinate the courts to the government — and close ranks with Biden on how to forge Israeli-Saudi ties and jointly tackle Iran’s nuclear programme.
That suggested that Yadlin — who was among pilots who bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and served as a top general during Israel’s 2007 attack on a suspected reactor in Syria — may not place much store in Israel’s ability to go solo against Iran, whose nuclear sites are distant, dispersed and defended.
Similarly, Ehud Barak, a former Netanyahu defence minister turned political critic, described Iran as “marching confidently towards becoming a de facto nuclear threshold state”. “US-Israeli coordination appears to be strong in the defence sphere but weak and in need of change in the offence sphere,” he wrote in the best-selling Yedioth Ahronoth daily.
Published in Dawn, March 13th, 2023
Accusing Netanyahu of “generating extraordinary damage to our national security,” Yadlin said he should scrap the reforms — which critics call an attempt to subordinate the courts to the government — and close ranks with Biden on how to forge Israeli-Saudi ties and jointly tackle Iran’s nuclear programme.
That suggested that Yadlin — who was among pilots who bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and served as a top general during Israel’s 2007 attack on a suspected reactor in Syria — may not place much store in Israel’s ability to go solo against Iran, whose nuclear sites are distant, dispersed and defended.
Similarly, Ehud Barak, a former Netanyahu defence minister turned political critic, described Iran as “marching confidently towards becoming a de facto nuclear threshold state”. “US-Israeli coordination appears to be strong in the defence sphere but weak and in need of change in the offence sphere,” he wrote in the best-selling Yedioth Ahronoth daily.
Published in Dawn, March 13th, 2023
Beijing breakthrough
Editorial
THE Chinese capital is not usually associated with Middle East peacemaking. Yet it was in Beijing on Friday that smiling top officials from the host country, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced to a surprised world that Riyadh and Tehran had decided to re-establish diplomatic relations.
This is no mean achievement, considering the terse ties between the two states, particularly in the decades since 1979’s Islamic Revolution in Iran. The deal, if all goes according to plan, would open up a new vista of cooperation between two of the Muslim world’s most influential states, while the breakthrough also brings to the fore a dominant China’s newfound role as international peacemaker.
Relations have alternated between lukewarm ties and open hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran ever since the revolution. However, the relationship suffered a severe jolt when Riyadh executed prominent Saudi Shia cleric Sheikh Baqir al-Nimr in 2016. Thereafter, Iranian protesters attacked Saudi missions in Tehran and Mashhad, which led to the rupture in diplomatic ties. During and before this period, both sides have competed for influence in Lebanon, Bahrain, Iraq and most notably Yemen, where the devastating civil war has pitted the pro-Iran Houthi militia against the Saudi-allied government. Therefore, a Saudi-Iranian détente has the potential to bring stability to all these states, particularly Yemen.
Moreover, improved ties between what are seen as the Muslim world’s leading Sunni and Shia powers can also mean better intra-Muslim relations. This is especially true for countries like Pakistan, which have witnessed significant sectarian violence, much of it influenced by the Saudi-Iran rivalry.
Coming to China’s role, the peace deal signals that Beijing is willing to take a more active role in international diplomacy. This may be partly due to the fact that China wants stability in an important market — the Gulf — and maintains good relations with both Riyadh and Tehran. Iraq and Oman have also played quiet, important roles in bringing both sides to the table.
However, the deal has sent alarm bells ringing in important capitals, most significantly Washington. The US has welcomed the move, albeit in a cagey manner. The American establishment seems to be wary of Iran breaking out of isolation — that the US has worked quite hard to maintain — and is also not too happy to see China playing an active role in global diplomacy. Meanwhile, in Tel Aviv, there is disquiet bordering on panic, as senior opposition figures have termed the peace deal a “failure of Israel’s foreign policy”.
The path to peace for the Saudis and Iranians will not be easy, as there remains a wide gulf of mistrust while there are spoilers aplenty who will be seeking to sabotage the deal. But for the sake of their people and the Muslim world, both sides need to make it work.
Published in Dawn, March 12th, 2023
Editorial
Published March 12, 2023
THE Chinese capital is not usually associated with Middle East peacemaking. Yet it was in Beijing on Friday that smiling top officials from the host country, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced to a surprised world that Riyadh and Tehran had decided to re-establish diplomatic relations.
This is no mean achievement, considering the terse ties between the two states, particularly in the decades since 1979’s Islamic Revolution in Iran. The deal, if all goes according to plan, would open up a new vista of cooperation between two of the Muslim world’s most influential states, while the breakthrough also brings to the fore a dominant China’s newfound role as international peacemaker.
Relations have alternated between lukewarm ties and open hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran ever since the revolution. However, the relationship suffered a severe jolt when Riyadh executed prominent Saudi Shia cleric Sheikh Baqir al-Nimr in 2016. Thereafter, Iranian protesters attacked Saudi missions in Tehran and Mashhad, which led to the rupture in diplomatic ties. During and before this period, both sides have competed for influence in Lebanon, Bahrain, Iraq and most notably Yemen, where the devastating civil war has pitted the pro-Iran Houthi militia against the Saudi-allied government. Therefore, a Saudi-Iranian détente has the potential to bring stability to all these states, particularly Yemen.
Moreover, improved ties between what are seen as the Muslim world’s leading Sunni and Shia powers can also mean better intra-Muslim relations. This is especially true for countries like Pakistan, which have witnessed significant sectarian violence, much of it influenced by the Saudi-Iran rivalry.
Coming to China’s role, the peace deal signals that Beijing is willing to take a more active role in international diplomacy. This may be partly due to the fact that China wants stability in an important market — the Gulf — and maintains good relations with both Riyadh and Tehran. Iraq and Oman have also played quiet, important roles in bringing both sides to the table.
However, the deal has sent alarm bells ringing in important capitals, most significantly Washington. The US has welcomed the move, albeit in a cagey manner. The American establishment seems to be wary of Iran breaking out of isolation — that the US has worked quite hard to maintain — and is also not too happy to see China playing an active role in global diplomacy. Meanwhile, in Tel Aviv, there is disquiet bordering on panic, as senior opposition figures have termed the peace deal a “failure of Israel’s foreign policy”.
The path to peace for the Saudis and Iranians will not be easy, as there remains a wide gulf of mistrust while there are spoilers aplenty who will be seeking to sabotage the deal. But for the sake of their people and the Muslim world, both sides need to make it work.
Published in Dawn, March 12th, 2023
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