BACKGROUNDER & UPDATES
Wagner Group’s Post-Mutiny Crack-Up Is a Threat to AfrikaJason Nichols
The Daily Beast.
Fri, July 14, 2023
Photo Illustration by Erin O'Flynn/The Daily Beast/Getty Images
The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military corporation filled with mercenaries and led by ignoble billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin, entered the American consciousness with Vladimir Putin’s Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Even more people came to know them when Prigozhin staged a short-lived mutiny where his forces briefly took the city of Rostov in southwestern Russia. Putin was able to end the mutiny without any damage, except to his fearsome reputation.
Since then, Wagner fighters in the region have turned over their arms to the Russian military and have avoided being imprisoned or executed for their role in the mutiny. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has stated the paramilitary groups would train the Belarusian military in weapons and tactics.
How Did We Get Putin So Wrong?
What’s less discussed about the Wagner Group is their activities in other parts of the world—namely war-torn areas in the Middle East and Africa.
Wagner is known to have operated in many areas throughout the African continent, including Chad, Libya, Central African Republic, and Mali. (There are unconfirmed rumors they may be invited into Burkina Faso by its new military leadership.)
Many believe that Wagner’s purpose is not only to extract key valuable resources from the mineral and oil-rich continent, but to extend Russia’s diplomatic influence by supporting a bloc of African states militarily. With the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin unknown and the status of Wagner unclear, their presence in these volatile areas present potentially grave security risks. In other words, having heavily armed soldiers of fortune open to the highest bidder and untethered to any nation-state in regions where human rights abuses are already common is incredibly dangerous.
Russia has assured some African leaders that they would not lose their fighting forces. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has promised the leadership in African nations like Chad and Mali that the “work will continue.” Russia extracts valuable resources from Africa as a result of Wagner’s presence.
However, questions remain about whether the loyalties of Wagner mercenaries are split between the Kremlin and Prigozhin. Though it has been reported that Prigozhin and Putin met in person days after the attempted mutiny—and more than likely worked out a deal for control of the Wagner Group—it is unclear how the mercenaries who are thousands of miles from the Kremlin feel about it.
Even if Putin is in charge, his image as a strongman was severely weakened by the mutiny attempt itself. Whether the Wagner mercenaries will accept his leadership without Prigozhin is anyone's guess.
America’s Tragedy Is Its Culture of Fear—Armed With Millions of Guns
Retired U.S. four-star General Robert Abrams told ABC News that he believes that Prigozhin is already dead and that the meeting between him and Putin was faked. While there’s no evidence to back up this assumption at the time, were it to be true, it’s unclear how Wagner mercenaries would accept their leader and cofounder being killed by the Russian state. The potential for desertion or illicit weapon sales rises as morale plummets.
Wagner already has a presence in the Central African Republic (CAR), a state whose political atmosphere was described by the United Nations as “fragile.” Religious-based sectarian violence has been commonplace since its independence in 1960. A Muslim rebel group called Seleka led a successful coup in late 2012. Seleka was disbanded soon after it gained control of Bangui, but violence between its former members and Christian “anti-balaka” fighters has continued. Both groups have since splintered off, causing more confusion and violence.
The Wagner Group has helped the CAR government to put down and deter insurgency efforts by these rebel factions. The CAR is one of the poorest nations in the world, with 71 percent of its population below the poverty line, but is home to an abundance of natural resources including oil, gold, and diamonds.
While it appears that some Wagner forces have left the country on planes, the government of CAR has said that these are rotations, and indicated that Wagner still has some structure despite the nebulous chain of command in Prigozhin’s absence. What is unclear is if CAR officials are bluffing about Wagner personnel rotations in order to deter the insurgents from mounting an offensive.
Debunking the Right-Wing Lie That Black Lives Matter Got $82 Billion From Corporations
If remaining Wagner mercenaries do not have a clear chain of command, or divided loyalties, or even lower morale since the removal of Prigozhin, they are more susceptible to offers from CAR’s many ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups. (It is believed by the UN and human rights organizations that both ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups have committed war crimes.)
Countries like CAR and Chad were violent and unstable and prone to coup attempts long before the arrival of Wagner. The west’s contributions to less stability and security in Africa also predate Russia and Wagner.
However, the potential human cost of an unstable mercenary group like Wagner in countries that are already struggling with Boko Haram and sectarian warring factions is very high.
While the world is rightly focused upon the unjust invasion of Ukraine, we must not lose sight of how the fallout could affect Africa and its people. We see how the developed world and its media has prioritized the lives of Ukrainians, it’s time they show the same regard for Black African lives.
Fri, July 14, 2023
Photo Illustration by Erin O'Flynn/The Daily Beast/Getty Images
The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military corporation filled with mercenaries and led by ignoble billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin, entered the American consciousness with Vladimir Putin’s Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Even more people came to know them when Prigozhin staged a short-lived mutiny where his forces briefly took the city of Rostov in southwestern Russia. Putin was able to end the mutiny without any damage, except to his fearsome reputation.
Since then, Wagner fighters in the region have turned over their arms to the Russian military and have avoided being imprisoned or executed for their role in the mutiny. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has stated the paramilitary groups would train the Belarusian military in weapons and tactics.
How Did We Get Putin So Wrong?
What’s less discussed about the Wagner Group is their activities in other parts of the world—namely war-torn areas in the Middle East and Africa.
Wagner is known to have operated in many areas throughout the African continent, including Chad, Libya, Central African Republic, and Mali. (There are unconfirmed rumors they may be invited into Burkina Faso by its new military leadership.)
Many believe that Wagner’s purpose is not only to extract key valuable resources from the mineral and oil-rich continent, but to extend Russia’s diplomatic influence by supporting a bloc of African states militarily. With the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin unknown and the status of Wagner unclear, their presence in these volatile areas present potentially grave security risks. In other words, having heavily armed soldiers of fortune open to the highest bidder and untethered to any nation-state in regions where human rights abuses are already common is incredibly dangerous.
Russia has assured some African leaders that they would not lose their fighting forces. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has promised the leadership in African nations like Chad and Mali that the “work will continue.” Russia extracts valuable resources from Africa as a result of Wagner’s presence.
However, questions remain about whether the loyalties of Wagner mercenaries are split between the Kremlin and Prigozhin. Though it has been reported that Prigozhin and Putin met in person days after the attempted mutiny—and more than likely worked out a deal for control of the Wagner Group—it is unclear how the mercenaries who are thousands of miles from the Kremlin feel about it.
Even if Putin is in charge, his image as a strongman was severely weakened by the mutiny attempt itself. Whether the Wagner mercenaries will accept his leadership without Prigozhin is anyone's guess.
America’s Tragedy Is Its Culture of Fear—Armed With Millions of Guns
Retired U.S. four-star General Robert Abrams told ABC News that he believes that Prigozhin is already dead and that the meeting between him and Putin was faked. While there’s no evidence to back up this assumption at the time, were it to be true, it’s unclear how Wagner mercenaries would accept their leader and cofounder being killed by the Russian state. The potential for desertion or illicit weapon sales rises as morale plummets.
Wagner already has a presence in the Central African Republic (CAR), a state whose political atmosphere was described by the United Nations as “fragile.” Religious-based sectarian violence has been commonplace since its independence in 1960. A Muslim rebel group called Seleka led a successful coup in late 2012. Seleka was disbanded soon after it gained control of Bangui, but violence between its former members and Christian “anti-balaka” fighters has continued. Both groups have since splintered off, causing more confusion and violence.
The Wagner Group has helped the CAR government to put down and deter insurgency efforts by these rebel factions. The CAR is one of the poorest nations in the world, with 71 percent of its population below the poverty line, but is home to an abundance of natural resources including oil, gold, and diamonds.
While it appears that some Wagner forces have left the country on planes, the government of CAR has said that these are rotations, and indicated that Wagner still has some structure despite the nebulous chain of command in Prigozhin’s absence. What is unclear is if CAR officials are bluffing about Wagner personnel rotations in order to deter the insurgents from mounting an offensive.
Debunking the Right-Wing Lie That Black Lives Matter Got $82 Billion From Corporations
If remaining Wagner mercenaries do not have a clear chain of command, or divided loyalties, or even lower morale since the removal of Prigozhin, they are more susceptible to offers from CAR’s many ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups. (It is believed by the UN and human rights organizations that both ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups have committed war crimes.)
Countries like CAR and Chad were violent and unstable and prone to coup attempts long before the arrival of Wagner. The west’s contributions to less stability and security in Africa also predate Russia and Wagner.
However, the potential human cost of an unstable mercenary group like Wagner in countries that are already struggling with Boko Haram and sectarian warring factions is very high.
While the world is rightly focused upon the unjust invasion of Ukraine, we must not lose sight of how the fallout could affect Africa and its people. We see how the developed world and its media has prioritized the lives of Ukrainians, it’s time they show the same regard for Black African lives.
Russia’s Wagner mercenaries hire Gurkha soldiers spurned by India
Samaan Lateef
Sat, July 15, 2023
Nepal's young soldiers have begun looking elsewhere for employment since the launch of India's controversial Agnipath Scheme
Dozens of elite Gurkhas have joined Russia’s Wagner mercenary group after India tightened the rules governing the recruitment of Nepalese troops into its army.
Gurkha soldiers have shared videos online showing them training with firearms at bases in Russia and Belarus, dining in military canteens and discussing the potential risks of fighting in Ukraine.
The mercenary force’s new recruits have become a cause for embarrassment for the government in Kathmandu, which has come under fire for failing to stop Nepalese citizens from joining Russia’s war effort.
Kamal Acharya, 22, left the small Nepalese village of Chisapani for Moscow in early May to join the Wagner Group.
On May 29, he shared a picture of himself holding an assault rifle inside a Russian military installation. A later TikTok video shows him effortlessly disassembling and reassembling the weapon.
Footage of the Russian training sessions has been shared on TikTok
Umesh Shahi, a friend of Mr Acharya, told The Telegraph he had travelled to Russia after learning that Moscow was paying good salaries for mercenary fighters.
“He told us it’s a risk but the money lured him to go,” he said.
Other Gurkhas who have joined up with the Kremlin’s forces have done so after completing university studies in Russia.
“I had two choices after finishing my studies: to remain unemployed or to join the Russian Army,” one man, who completed his medical degree in Russia and joined its military instead of returning home, told Nepal TV.
The Gurkha said his physical fitness was key to his acceptance into the army after he applied to join at the end of May.
He said more than a dozen Nepali citizens were undergoing intensive training alongside other foreign fighters at a base near the border with Ukraine.
“Our training encompasses the use of advanced weaponry, and it spans throughout the day and sometimes extends into the night,” he said.
“After one year, citizenship is also available. If I don’t die in one year, I will live here,” he said, adding that he is receiving a monthly payment equivalent to 50,000 Nepalese rupees (£290), along with insurance coverage, during the rigorous training.
The young men are choosing to join Russia's mercenary troops
A former Nepali Army soldier from Karnali Province, who has joined the mercenary group, told Nepal TV that he had found out about “opportunities in the Russian Army” while working as a security guard in Dubai.
Now enrolled in the Russian military, he found his prior training in the Nepali Army to be advantageous, as it eased his transition into the Russian forces.
“We are more than two hundred foreign comrades and three Nepali friends,” he said.
He had considered joining the French Foreign Legion, but was put off by a lengthy and challenging recruitment process.
At least 50 Gurkhas are believed to have joined the Wagner Group since the beginning of the war, with as many as 200 Nepalese citizens travelling to Russia to join its army.
A source in the Nepalese government said it did not know exactly how many Gurkhas had joined the mercenary force, but said “we have identified some of these youths and contacted their families to persuade them to return home”.
‘It should be stopped’
The Gurkhas, renowned around the world for their combat prowess, have served in the British Army since 1815. Tens of thousands of Gurkhas also serve in the Indian Army.
But last year, India replaced long-term employment with shorter contracts and eliminated pension benefits through the controversial Agnipath Scheme.
In response, Nepal temporarily suspended the recruitment process under the 1947 Tripartite Treaty involving Britain, India and Nepal.
The disruption to the established recruitment procedure has pushed Gurkha fighters towards Russia, which has also loosened its requirements for citizenship in an effort to entice volunteer fighters to join its forces in Ukraine.
Now, Nepal’s government is being urged to take action to stop its elite warriors from joining the Russian military.
“A Gurkha joining a Russian mercenary army tarnishes the pride of my nation. It should be stopped,” said Prem Singh Basnyat, a retired Nepalese Brigadier General.
“They might have been lured with good money and joined the mercenary group in disregard of the national interest,” he told The Telegraph.
Retired Major General Binoj Basnyat, a strategic analyst for the Nepal Army, said: “The Nepalese government should take immediate action and implement measures to prevent its citizens from joining the Russian military.
“Such participation goes against Nepal’s foreign policy of neutrality and non-alignment.”
The disruption to recruitment opportunities in the Indian Army have played a significant role in influencing the Gurkhas’ decision to join the Wagner Group, he added.
The Indian government has also been criticised for failing to protect the recruitment process that has helped Gurkhas find their way into service abroad for centuries.
“Gurkhas are universally acknowledged to be among the finest soldiers in the world,” said Jairam Ramesh, a spokesman for India’s main opposition Congress party. “Yet the ill-conceived Agnipath Scheme has interrupted a 200-year-old recruitment process and no Gurkha soldiers will be entering the Indian Army in 2023.”
He added: “This disruption is leading to Gurkhas being recruited by private military companies like the Wagner Group.”
Samaan Lateef
Sat, July 15, 2023
Nepal's young soldiers have begun looking elsewhere for employment since the launch of India's controversial Agnipath Scheme
Dozens of elite Gurkhas have joined Russia’s Wagner mercenary group after India tightened the rules governing the recruitment of Nepalese troops into its army.
Gurkha soldiers have shared videos online showing them training with firearms at bases in Russia and Belarus, dining in military canteens and discussing the potential risks of fighting in Ukraine.
The mercenary force’s new recruits have become a cause for embarrassment for the government in Kathmandu, which has come under fire for failing to stop Nepalese citizens from joining Russia’s war effort.
Kamal Acharya, 22, left the small Nepalese village of Chisapani for Moscow in early May to join the Wagner Group.
On May 29, he shared a picture of himself holding an assault rifle inside a Russian military installation. A later TikTok video shows him effortlessly disassembling and reassembling the weapon.
Footage of the Russian training sessions has been shared on TikTok
Umesh Shahi, a friend of Mr Acharya, told The Telegraph he had travelled to Russia after learning that Moscow was paying good salaries for mercenary fighters.
“He told us it’s a risk but the money lured him to go,” he said.
Other Gurkhas who have joined up with the Kremlin’s forces have done so after completing university studies in Russia.
“I had two choices after finishing my studies: to remain unemployed or to join the Russian Army,” one man, who completed his medical degree in Russia and joined its military instead of returning home, told Nepal TV.
The Gurkha said his physical fitness was key to his acceptance into the army after he applied to join at the end of May.
He said more than a dozen Nepali citizens were undergoing intensive training alongside other foreign fighters at a base near the border with Ukraine.
“Our training encompasses the use of advanced weaponry, and it spans throughout the day and sometimes extends into the night,” he said.
“After one year, citizenship is also available. If I don’t die in one year, I will live here,” he said, adding that he is receiving a monthly payment equivalent to 50,000 Nepalese rupees (£290), along with insurance coverage, during the rigorous training.
The young men are choosing to join Russia's mercenary troops
A former Nepali Army soldier from Karnali Province, who has joined the mercenary group, told Nepal TV that he had found out about “opportunities in the Russian Army” while working as a security guard in Dubai.
Now enrolled in the Russian military, he found his prior training in the Nepali Army to be advantageous, as it eased his transition into the Russian forces.
“We are more than two hundred foreign comrades and three Nepali friends,” he said.
He had considered joining the French Foreign Legion, but was put off by a lengthy and challenging recruitment process.
At least 50 Gurkhas are believed to have joined the Wagner Group since the beginning of the war, with as many as 200 Nepalese citizens travelling to Russia to join its army.
A source in the Nepalese government said it did not know exactly how many Gurkhas had joined the mercenary force, but said “we have identified some of these youths and contacted their families to persuade them to return home”.
‘It should be stopped’
The Gurkhas, renowned around the world for their combat prowess, have served in the British Army since 1815. Tens of thousands of Gurkhas also serve in the Indian Army.
But last year, India replaced long-term employment with shorter contracts and eliminated pension benefits through the controversial Agnipath Scheme.
In response, Nepal temporarily suspended the recruitment process under the 1947 Tripartite Treaty involving Britain, India and Nepal.
The disruption to the established recruitment procedure has pushed Gurkha fighters towards Russia, which has also loosened its requirements for citizenship in an effort to entice volunteer fighters to join its forces in Ukraine.
Now, Nepal’s government is being urged to take action to stop its elite warriors from joining the Russian military.
“A Gurkha joining a Russian mercenary army tarnishes the pride of my nation. It should be stopped,” said Prem Singh Basnyat, a retired Nepalese Brigadier General.
“They might have been lured with good money and joined the mercenary group in disregard of the national interest,” he told The Telegraph.
Retired Major General Binoj Basnyat, a strategic analyst for the Nepal Army, said: “The Nepalese government should take immediate action and implement measures to prevent its citizens from joining the Russian military.
“Such participation goes against Nepal’s foreign policy of neutrality and non-alignment.”
The disruption to recruitment opportunities in the Indian Army have played a significant role in influencing the Gurkhas’ decision to join the Wagner Group, he added.
The Indian government has also been criticised for failing to protect the recruitment process that has helped Gurkhas find their way into service abroad for centuries.
“Gurkhas are universally acknowledged to be among the finest soldiers in the world,” said Jairam Ramesh, a spokesman for India’s main opposition Congress party. “Yet the ill-conceived Agnipath Scheme has interrupted a 200-year-old recruitment process and no Gurkha soldiers will be entering the Indian Army in 2023.”
He added: “This disruption is leading to Gurkhas being recruited by private military companies like the Wagner Group.”
Ukraine, Poland say Wagner fighters arrive in Belarus
Wagner fighters are training Belarusian soldiers in Belarus
Reuters
Updated Sun, July 16, 2023
(Reuters) -Fighters from the Wagner group have arrived in Belarus from Russia, Ukrainian and Polish officials said on Saturday, a day after Minsk said the mercenaries were training the country's soldiers southeast of the capital.
"Wagner is in Belarus," Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian border agency, said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app. He said the movement of "separate groups" from Russia had been observed in Belarus.
Some Wagner fighters have been in Belarus since at least Tuesday, two sources close to the fighters told Reuters.
The Belarusian defence ministry released a video on Friday, showing what it said were Wagner fighters instructing Belarusian soldiers at a military range near the town of Osipovichi.
Wagner's move to Belarus was part of a deal that ended the group's mutiny attempt in June - when they took control of a Russian military headquarters, marched on Moscow and threatened to tip Russia into civil war - President Vladimir Putin said.
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has not been seen in public since he left the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don late on June 24.
Poland's deputy minister coordinator of special services, Stanislaw Zaryn, said Warsaw also has confirmation of Wagner fighters' presence in Belarus.
"There may be several hundred of them at the moment," Zaryn said on Twitter.
Poland said this month it was bolstering its border with Belarus to address any potential threats.
While not sending his own troops to Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory to launch its full-scale invasion on Ukraine in February 2022 and has since let his country be used as a base for Russian nuclear weapons.
The Belarusian Hajun project, which monitors military activity in the country and which is viewed as an extremist formation by Belarusian authorities, said a large column of at least 60 vehicles entered Belarus overnight Friday from Russia.
It said the vehicles, including trucks, pickups, vans and buses, had licence plates of the self-styled Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics in what is internationally recognised as eastern Ukraine. In a move widely condemned as illegal, Moscow moved last year to annex the republics, which have been Russian proxies since 2014.
Hajun said it appeared that a Wagner column was headed to Tsel in central Belarus, where foreign reporters were last week shown a camp with hundreds of empty tents.
Video shared by Russian war correspondent Alexander Kotz on Saturday evening appeared to show a convoy of trucks and military vehicles on a highway in southern Russia, some of which were flying the Wagner flag.
Reuters could not independently verify the Belarusian Hajun report. There was no immediate comment from Russia or Belarus on the reports.
(Writing by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne and Mark Trevelyan in London; Additional reporting by Caleb Davis in Gdansk;)
Wagner fighters are training Belarusian soldiers in Belarus
Reuters
Updated Sun, July 16, 2023
(Reuters) -Fighters from the Wagner group have arrived in Belarus from Russia, Ukrainian and Polish officials said on Saturday, a day after Minsk said the mercenaries were training the country's soldiers southeast of the capital.
"Wagner is in Belarus," Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian border agency, said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app. He said the movement of "separate groups" from Russia had been observed in Belarus.
Some Wagner fighters have been in Belarus since at least Tuesday, two sources close to the fighters told Reuters.
The Belarusian defence ministry released a video on Friday, showing what it said were Wagner fighters instructing Belarusian soldiers at a military range near the town of Osipovichi.
Wagner's move to Belarus was part of a deal that ended the group's mutiny attempt in June - when they took control of a Russian military headquarters, marched on Moscow and threatened to tip Russia into civil war - President Vladimir Putin said.
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has not been seen in public since he left the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don late on June 24.
Poland's deputy minister coordinator of special services, Stanislaw Zaryn, said Warsaw also has confirmation of Wagner fighters' presence in Belarus.
"There may be several hundred of them at the moment," Zaryn said on Twitter.
Poland said this month it was bolstering its border with Belarus to address any potential threats.
While not sending his own troops to Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory to launch its full-scale invasion on Ukraine in February 2022 and has since let his country be used as a base for Russian nuclear weapons.
The Belarusian Hajun project, which monitors military activity in the country and which is viewed as an extremist formation by Belarusian authorities, said a large column of at least 60 vehicles entered Belarus overnight Friday from Russia.
It said the vehicles, including trucks, pickups, vans and buses, had licence plates of the self-styled Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics in what is internationally recognised as eastern Ukraine. In a move widely condemned as illegal, Moscow moved last year to annex the republics, which have been Russian proxies since 2014.
Hajun said it appeared that a Wagner column was headed to Tsel in central Belarus, where foreign reporters were last week shown a camp with hundreds of empty tents.
Video shared by Russian war correspondent Alexander Kotz on Saturday evening appeared to show a convoy of trucks and military vehicles on a highway in southern Russia, some of which were flying the Wagner flag.
Reuters could not independently verify the Belarusian Hajun report. There was no immediate comment from Russia or Belarus on the reports.
(Writing by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne and Mark Trevelyan in London; Additional reporting by Caleb Davis in Gdansk;)
Lukashenko's Calls To Prigozhin Tapped; But German Intel Failed To Predict Russian Mutiny I Details
According to a recent inquiry, the German intelligence service was aware of the Wagner insurrection before it happened. The German intelligence agency BND tapped the phone calls between Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko and Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. However, BND is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. Watch this video to know more.
Story by Jason Burke • Jul 6, 2023
THE GUARDIAN
Photograph: AP© Provided by The Guardian
Four days after Wagner group mercenaries marched on Moscow, a Russian envoy flew into Benghazi to meet a worried warlord. The message from the Kremlin to Khalifa Haftar, the self-styled general who runs much of eastern Libya, was reassuring: the more than 2,000 Wagner fighters, technicians, political operatives and administrators in the country would be staying.
“There will be no problem here. There may be some changes at the top but the mechanism will stay the same: the people on the ground, the money men in Dubai, the contacts, and the resources committed to Libya,” the envoy told Haftar in his fortified palatial residence. “Don’t worry, we aren’t going anywhere.”
The conversation, relayed to the Guardian by a senior Libyan former official with direct knowledge of the encounter, underlines the degree to which the Wagner group’s deployments and its extensive network of businesses across Africa is yet to be hit by the fallout from the rebellion of its founder and commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The resilience of Wagner’s commercial operations despite the turmoil in Russia strongly suggests Vladimir Putin’s regime will seek to appropriate and exploit the lucrative web of hundreds of companies that Prigozhin built, rather than shut it down, experts believe.
Related: ‘He lived by the troll, he dies by the troll’: Putin takes on Prigozhin’s business empire
In Libya, there has been no abnormal movement of Wagner personnel, other than the redeployment of a small detachment of 50 closer to the border with Sudan.
The situation is similar elsewhere in the continent, according to sources in half a dozen African countries with knowledge of its operations.
“For the moment, it looks like Wagner’s operations are on hold. But they are successful and not so expensive, so it is very likely Wagner will be rebranded [by Moscow] while maintaining most of its assets and systems,” said Nathalia Dukhan, the author of a recent report on Wagner’s operations in Central African Republic (CAR) published by The Sentry, a US-based investigative organisation. “It is like a virus that spreads. They do not appear to be planning to leave. They are planning to continue.”
Though attention has mainly focused on Wagner’s combat role, particularly in Ukraine in recent months, analysts and western intelligence officials say that in Africa it is the group’s economic and political activities that are important to Putin’s regime.
“Since its first deployments in 2017, Wagner has really become much more widespread and high profile. Now the Kremlin certainly seems to be trying to emphasise continuity, if not immediate expansion,” said Julia Stanyard, an expert on Wagner at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, last week reassured allies in Africa that Wagner group fighters deployed to the continent would not be withdrawn. In an interview with Russia Today, Lavrov promised that “instructors” and “private military contractors” would remain in CAR and Mali, the two countries in sub-Saharan Africa where Wagner has the biggest presence.
A demonstration in Bangui, Central African Republic, in support of the Russian offensive against Ukraine, in May 2022.
Photograph: AP© Provided by The Guardian
Four days after Wagner group mercenaries marched on Moscow, a Russian envoy flew into Benghazi to meet a worried warlord. The message from the Kremlin to Khalifa Haftar, the self-styled general who runs much of eastern Libya, was reassuring: the more than 2,000 Wagner fighters, technicians, political operatives and administrators in the country would be staying.
“There will be no problem here. There may be some changes at the top but the mechanism will stay the same: the people on the ground, the money men in Dubai, the contacts, and the resources committed to Libya,” the envoy told Haftar in his fortified palatial residence. “Don’t worry, we aren’t going anywhere.”
The conversation, relayed to the Guardian by a senior Libyan former official with direct knowledge of the encounter, underlines the degree to which the Wagner group’s deployments and its extensive network of businesses across Africa is yet to be hit by the fallout from the rebellion of its founder and commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The resilience of Wagner’s commercial operations despite the turmoil in Russia strongly suggests Vladimir Putin’s regime will seek to appropriate and exploit the lucrative web of hundreds of companies that Prigozhin built, rather than shut it down, experts believe.
Related: ‘He lived by the troll, he dies by the troll’: Putin takes on Prigozhin’s business empire
In Libya, there has been no abnormal movement of Wagner personnel, other than the redeployment of a small detachment of 50 closer to the border with Sudan.
The situation is similar elsewhere in the continent, according to sources in half a dozen African countries with knowledge of its operations.
“For the moment, it looks like Wagner’s operations are on hold. But they are successful and not so expensive, so it is very likely Wagner will be rebranded [by Moscow] while maintaining most of its assets and systems,” said Nathalia Dukhan, the author of a recent report on Wagner’s operations in Central African Republic (CAR) published by The Sentry, a US-based investigative organisation. “It is like a virus that spreads. They do not appear to be planning to leave. They are planning to continue.”
Though attention has mainly focused on Wagner’s combat role, particularly in Ukraine in recent months, analysts and western intelligence officials say that in Africa it is the group’s economic and political activities that are important to Putin’s regime.
“Since its first deployments in 2017, Wagner has really become much more widespread and high profile. Now the Kremlin certainly seems to be trying to emphasise continuity, if not immediate expansion,” said Julia Stanyard, an expert on Wagner at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, last week reassured allies in Africa that Wagner group fighters deployed to the continent would not be withdrawn. In an interview with Russia Today, Lavrov promised that “instructors” and “private military contractors” would remain in CAR and Mali, the two countries in sub-Saharan Africa where Wagner has the biggest presence.
A demonstration in Bangui, Central African Republic, in support of the Russian offensive against Ukraine, in May 2022.
Photograph: Carol Valade/AFP/Getty Images© Provided by The Guardian
The most developed commercial operation run by Wagner is in CAR, where the group’s mercenaries arrived in 2018 to bolster the regime of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, which was struggling to fight off a rebel offensive.
From multiple bases in and around Bangui, CAR’s capital, Wagner has run an extensive mining operation across the country. The group has also begun making and selling beer and spirits, and has been granted a hugely profitable concession to exploit rainforests in the south of CAR.
The biggest single project is the vast Ndassima goldmine, which has been taken over by Wagner and is being developed. Poor infrastructure is thought to have restricted output at Ndassima, however, forcing Wagner to seek profits through the takeover of smaller mines along CAR’s remote eastern frontier region. Last year, Wagner fighters launched raids on goldmines there that killed dozens of people, witnesses interviewed by the Guardian said.
These operations are thought to be the primary responsibility of a small detachment of Wagner fighters, which also oversees the smuggling of gold and much else into Sudan, where the Wagner group has close contacts with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo currently fighting for control of the state.
Last month the US Treasury imposed a new round of sanctions that aimed to “disrupt key actors in the Wagner group’s financial network and international structure”.
Three companies were targeted, all involved in Africa. One was Midas Ressources, a CAR-based mining company linked to Prigozhin, which the US Treasury said “maintains ownership of CAR-based mining concessions and licenses for prospecting and extracting minerals, precious and semi-precious metals, and gems”, including the Ndassima mine.
A man waves a flag thanking Wagner in Mali, where the military group has a growing presence. Photograph: Florent Vergnes/AFP/Getty Images© Provided by The Guardian
The most developed commercial operation run by Wagner is in CAR, where the group’s mercenaries arrived in 2018 to bolster the regime of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, which was struggling to fight off a rebel offensive.
From multiple bases in and around Bangui, CAR’s capital, Wagner has run an extensive mining operation across the country. The group has also begun making and selling beer and spirits, and has been granted a hugely profitable concession to exploit rainforests in the south of CAR.
The biggest single project is the vast Ndassima goldmine, which has been taken over by Wagner and is being developed. Poor infrastructure is thought to have restricted output at Ndassima, however, forcing Wagner to seek profits through the takeover of smaller mines along CAR’s remote eastern frontier region. Last year, Wagner fighters launched raids on goldmines there that killed dozens of people, witnesses interviewed by the Guardian said.
These operations are thought to be the primary responsibility of a small detachment of Wagner fighters, which also oversees the smuggling of gold and much else into Sudan, where the Wagner group has close contacts with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo currently fighting for control of the state.
Last month the US Treasury imposed a new round of sanctions that aimed to “disrupt key actors in the Wagner group’s financial network and international structure”.
Three companies were targeted, all involved in Africa. One was Midas Ressources, a CAR-based mining company linked to Prigozhin, which the US Treasury said “maintains ownership of CAR-based mining concessions and licenses for prospecting and extracting minerals, precious and semi-precious metals, and gems”, including the Ndassima mine.
A man waves a flag thanking Wagner in Mali, where the military group has a growing presence. Photograph: Florent Vergnes/AFP/Getty Images© Provided by The Guardian
Related video: Wagner troops surrender arms after aborted mutiny (France 24)
Duration 1:51 View on Watch
A second company targeted was Diamville, described by the Treasury as “a gold and diamond purchasing company based in the CAR and controlled by Prigozhin”, which the US alleges shipped diamonds mined in the CAR to buyers in the UAE and in Europe, using a third company under sanctions called Industrial Resources.
Experts have said diamonds would be useful for evading sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. “You can buy any goods anywhere with diamonds,” Dukhan, the analyst, said.
An earlier round of US and EU sanctions targeted Wagner’s holdings in Sudan, in particular a company called Meroe Gold. Recent EU sanctions listed further companies alleged to be “illegally trading gold and diamonds looted by force from local traders”.
Until fighting between rival factions in Sudan broke out in April, Wagner operatives ran an office near the airport in the capital, Khartoum, with bullion flown out from an airbase a short distance away in the desert, local officials and diplomats told the Guardian last year. Bullion is sent to the United Arab Emirates and Moscow for sale on to international markets.
The conflict in Sudan is thought to have constrained – but not entirely halted – Wagner’s extensive operations there, which are focused on gold mining and refining in collaboration with the paramilitary RSF.
The small Wagner detachment in Sudan has also had sporadic contacts in recent months with RSF, and may have supplied them with weapons, according to local sources, but has otherwise stayed away from significant involvement in the fighting.
“The priority is basically to keep the gold moving,” said one western security source who was recently forced to leave Khartoum by the fighting.
Last weekend, observers with multiple sources on the ground in CAR said there had been no evidence of movement of Wagner personnel on any of the poverty-hit country’s few major roads, nor at its principal airport.
On the Sudanese frontier, it was “business as usual”, according to Enrica Picco, central Africa director of the International Crisis Group.
A truck belonging to the Wagner group at an abandoned military base in Bangassou, Central African Republic.
Duration 1:51 View on Watch
A second company targeted was Diamville, described by the Treasury as “a gold and diamond purchasing company based in the CAR and controlled by Prigozhin”, which the US alleges shipped diamonds mined in the CAR to buyers in the UAE and in Europe, using a third company under sanctions called Industrial Resources.
Experts have said diamonds would be useful for evading sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. “You can buy any goods anywhere with diamonds,” Dukhan, the analyst, said.
An earlier round of US and EU sanctions targeted Wagner’s holdings in Sudan, in particular a company called Meroe Gold. Recent EU sanctions listed further companies alleged to be “illegally trading gold and diamonds looted by force from local traders”.
Until fighting between rival factions in Sudan broke out in April, Wagner operatives ran an office near the airport in the capital, Khartoum, with bullion flown out from an airbase a short distance away in the desert, local officials and diplomats told the Guardian last year. Bullion is sent to the United Arab Emirates and Moscow for sale on to international markets.
The conflict in Sudan is thought to have constrained – but not entirely halted – Wagner’s extensive operations there, which are focused on gold mining and refining in collaboration with the paramilitary RSF.
The small Wagner detachment in Sudan has also had sporadic contacts in recent months with RSF, and may have supplied them with weapons, according to local sources, but has otherwise stayed away from significant involvement in the fighting.
“The priority is basically to keep the gold moving,” said one western security source who was recently forced to leave Khartoum by the fighting.
Last weekend, observers with multiple sources on the ground in CAR said there had been no evidence of movement of Wagner personnel on any of the poverty-hit country’s few major roads, nor at its principal airport.
On the Sudanese frontier, it was “business as usual”, according to Enrica Picco, central Africa director of the International Crisis Group.
A truck belonging to the Wagner group at an abandoned military base in Bangassou, Central African Republic.
Photograph: Alexis Huguet/AFP/Getty Images© Provided by The Guardian
In Mali, where Wagner’s commercial operation is less well-developed, the group is thought to have struggled to make significant profits since deploying in December 2021. Diplomatic sources told the Guardian that Wagner had experienced difficulty accessing the goldmines they were allowed to exploit under the deal struck with the regime of military ruler Assimi Goïta but had been paid handsomely by the military regime.
The US believes Mali’s transition government has paid more than $200m (£157m) to Wagner since late 2021, the White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, told reporters last week.
Political dividends have also been significant. Last week, the UN security council voted to withdraw its peacekeeping mission in Mali after a decade, allowing the country to swing further under the influence of Moscow. Earlier this month, Mali had asked the UN peacekeeping force to leave “without delay”, citing a “crisis of confidence” between Malian authorities and the UN mission.
Kirby said Prigozhin had helped engineer the UN’s departure “to further Wagner’s interests. We know that senior Malian officials worked directly with Prigozhin employees to inform the UN secretary general that Mali had revoked consent for the [UN] mission,” he said.
Local sources in Mali said a routine rotation of Wagner staff had been completed without incident in the days after the mutiny and mercenaries had continued operations with Malian forces fighting insurgents across the centre and north of the country.
In Libya, another sizeable contingent of Wagner mercenaries is deployed in the eastern part of the country controlled by the warlord Khalifa Haftar. The deployment has earned hundreds of millions of dollars in direct payments since the group participated in an abortive offensive to seize Tripoli in 2019, but has also offered opportunities to engage in oil smuggling on a massive scale, potentially earning similar sums.
There have been no abnormal movements of Wagner personnel in Libya either, since Prigozhin’s “mutiny”, according to a well-placed former official and analysts. Low-level fuel and weapons trafficking is thought to be continuing across Libya’s vast and largely unpoliced southern borders.
Speculation has been rife on social media accounts used by Wagner fighters in Mali, CAR and elsewhere that the group’s employees would be offered new contracts with the Russian state.
However, any process of “nationalisation” could lead to tensions, analysts said. Alia Brahimi, an expert on mercenaries at the Atlantic Council, said: “In theory, this should be quite straightforward, given the Wagner group’s origins as the Kremlin’s creature. But the commanders who ran the day to day in Africa, like [Ivan] Maslov in Mali who’s been personally sanctioned, were elevated by Prigozhin.
“They will have to reconcile the personal debt they owe to Prigozhin and their tribal identity as private operatives rather than public soldiers with more centralised Kremlin control,” he added.
“From the Kremlin’s side, the whole point and draw of letting Wagner off the leash in Africa was that they were a deniable force. Now the horrific crimes and abuses, as well as the economic predation, will have a clear return address.”
The destabilising effects on local regimes are already evident. There have been public disputes in CAR between ministers over Wagner’s exact role there, and senior officials have sought assurances that Russia will continue its support for Touadéra’s campaign to change the constitution to allow a third term as president. A referendum is due next month.
US officials believe Wagner in Mali has been using false documentation to hide the acquisition and transit of mines, uncrewed aerial vehicles, radar and counterbattery systems for use in Ukraine.
As the head of Wagner in Mali, Maslov “arranges meetings between Prigozhin and government officials from several African nations”, sanctions documents claim.
In the weeks before Prigozhin’s mutiny in Russia, there was evidence that Wagner was committing new resources and reinforcements to Mali and CAR, where Moscow wants to ensure a successful result for Touadéra’s ally in a coming referendum. Officials and diplomats in CAR have described Russia’s plan for a new major base, with capacity for up to 5,000 fighters, which would be a launchpad for Moscow’s geopolitical interests and operations in the surrounding countries.
Two other targets for the Kremlin are believed to be Burkina Faso and Chad, but the biggest prize would be the vast and resource-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Last year, approaches were made by Wagner representatives to the president of DRC, Félix Tshisekedi, who eventually decided against hiring the group to fight against rebels in the vast country’s restive east in return for giving Wagner access to lucrative mining concessions. The bid to win new contracts and business opportunities in DRC was preceded by a significant influence operation masterminded by Prigozhin’s media specialists in St Petersburg.
Just four months ago, Wagner was mounting recruitment campaigns specifically for African operations, as evidence suggested deployments were being reinforced in CAR, Mali and elsewhere.
Wagner’s operations have always been closely aligned with Russia’s longer-term foreign policy objectives, analysts point out. In 2019, leaked memos obtained by the Guardian revealed the Kremlin’s aim to use clandestine influence operations in Africa to build relations with existing rulers, strike military deals, and groom a new generation of “leaders” and undercover “agents” in Africa. One goal was to “strong arm” the US and the former colonial powers the UK and France out of the region. Another was to see off “pro-western” uprisings, the documents said.
In Mali, where Wagner’s commercial operation is less well-developed, the group is thought to have struggled to make significant profits since deploying in December 2021. Diplomatic sources told the Guardian that Wagner had experienced difficulty accessing the goldmines they were allowed to exploit under the deal struck with the regime of military ruler Assimi Goïta but had been paid handsomely by the military regime.
The US believes Mali’s transition government has paid more than $200m (£157m) to Wagner since late 2021, the White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, told reporters last week.
Political dividends have also been significant. Last week, the UN security council voted to withdraw its peacekeeping mission in Mali after a decade, allowing the country to swing further under the influence of Moscow. Earlier this month, Mali had asked the UN peacekeeping force to leave “without delay”, citing a “crisis of confidence” between Malian authorities and the UN mission.
Kirby said Prigozhin had helped engineer the UN’s departure “to further Wagner’s interests. We know that senior Malian officials worked directly with Prigozhin employees to inform the UN secretary general that Mali had revoked consent for the [UN] mission,” he said.
Local sources in Mali said a routine rotation of Wagner staff had been completed without incident in the days after the mutiny and mercenaries had continued operations with Malian forces fighting insurgents across the centre and north of the country.
In Libya, another sizeable contingent of Wagner mercenaries is deployed in the eastern part of the country controlled by the warlord Khalifa Haftar. The deployment has earned hundreds of millions of dollars in direct payments since the group participated in an abortive offensive to seize Tripoli in 2019, but has also offered opportunities to engage in oil smuggling on a massive scale, potentially earning similar sums.
There have been no abnormal movements of Wagner personnel in Libya either, since Prigozhin’s “mutiny”, according to a well-placed former official and analysts. Low-level fuel and weapons trafficking is thought to be continuing across Libya’s vast and largely unpoliced southern borders.
Speculation has been rife on social media accounts used by Wagner fighters in Mali, CAR and elsewhere that the group’s employees would be offered new contracts with the Russian state.
However, any process of “nationalisation” could lead to tensions, analysts said. Alia Brahimi, an expert on mercenaries at the Atlantic Council, said: “In theory, this should be quite straightforward, given the Wagner group’s origins as the Kremlin’s creature. But the commanders who ran the day to day in Africa, like [Ivan] Maslov in Mali who’s been personally sanctioned, were elevated by Prigozhin.
“They will have to reconcile the personal debt they owe to Prigozhin and their tribal identity as private operatives rather than public soldiers with more centralised Kremlin control,” he added.
“From the Kremlin’s side, the whole point and draw of letting Wagner off the leash in Africa was that they were a deniable force. Now the horrific crimes and abuses, as well as the economic predation, will have a clear return address.”
The destabilising effects on local regimes are already evident. There have been public disputes in CAR between ministers over Wagner’s exact role there, and senior officials have sought assurances that Russia will continue its support for Touadéra’s campaign to change the constitution to allow a third term as president. A referendum is due next month.
US officials believe Wagner in Mali has been using false documentation to hide the acquisition and transit of mines, uncrewed aerial vehicles, radar and counterbattery systems for use in Ukraine.
As the head of Wagner in Mali, Maslov “arranges meetings between Prigozhin and government officials from several African nations”, sanctions documents claim.
In the weeks before Prigozhin’s mutiny in Russia, there was evidence that Wagner was committing new resources and reinforcements to Mali and CAR, where Moscow wants to ensure a successful result for Touadéra’s ally in a coming referendum. Officials and diplomats in CAR have described Russia’s plan for a new major base, with capacity for up to 5,000 fighters, which would be a launchpad for Moscow’s geopolitical interests and operations in the surrounding countries.
Two other targets for the Kremlin are believed to be Burkina Faso and Chad, but the biggest prize would be the vast and resource-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Last year, approaches were made by Wagner representatives to the president of DRC, Félix Tshisekedi, who eventually decided against hiring the group to fight against rebels in the vast country’s restive east in return for giving Wagner access to lucrative mining concessions. The bid to win new contracts and business opportunities in DRC was preceded by a significant influence operation masterminded by Prigozhin’s media specialists in St Petersburg.
Just four months ago, Wagner was mounting recruitment campaigns specifically for African operations, as evidence suggested deployments were being reinforced in CAR, Mali and elsewhere.
Wagner’s operations have always been closely aligned with Russia’s longer-term foreign policy objectives, analysts point out. In 2019, leaked memos obtained by the Guardian revealed the Kremlin’s aim to use clandestine influence operations in Africa to build relations with existing rulers, strike military deals, and groom a new generation of “leaders” and undercover “agents” in Africa. One goal was to “strong arm” the US and the former colonial powers the UK and France out of the region. Another was to see off “pro-western” uprisings, the documents said.
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