US Seeks Strategic Dialogue With Russia
Almost four weeks into Hamas’ attack on Israel, Russia is in no hurry to exploit the Joe Biden administration’s quandary over the collapse of West Asia’s security. The Western media was unanimous that Russia was waiting in the wings to seize the opportunity once the US took its eye off the ball in Ukraine. However, no such thing happened.
The Ukraine war is on autopilot. The compass has been set, the die is cast and the calculus is holding steady with regard to the strategic objectives set by President Vladimir Putin in February last year. Russia senses that it has gained the upper hand in the war and that is irreversible.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed and the fighting is presently restricted to two sectors of the frontline, as Russian forces strengthen the security of the Donetsk region and seek to regain control of territories up north in the borderlands of Donbass and Kharkov region from where they retreated for tactical reasons last September and October.
Yet, Moscow has not begun its grand offensive, as many had predicted. One plausible explanation is that Moscow is watching the maelstrom sweeping through West Asia. Moscow is particularly sensitive about any spillover into Syria.
With an eye on the formidable US naval build-up in Eastern Mediterranean with the deployment of two aircraft carrier groups, President Vladimir Putin has publicised that Russian jets equipped with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles are roaming the skies above the Black Sea, which can strike targets 1,000 km away at Mach 9 speed, which no existing missile defence system can intercept. Suffice to say, the war in Ukraine remains attritional.
Curiously, Russia conducted a simulated nuclear strike in a drill on Wednesday overseen by Putin, hours after the Russian parliament voted to rescind the country’s ratification of the global comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty (CTBT). The drill needs to be seen in the broader context of global strategic stability.
A Kremlin statement said, “The purpose of the training exercise was to check the level of preparedness of military command bodies, as well as the skill of the leadership and operational personnel in managing the troops (forces) under their command.” Everything, however, adds up in these extraordinary times.
At its most obvious level, the Palestine-Israel conflict is a manifestation of the growing imbalance in the existing system of international relations. New wars are emerging; long standing conflicts are mutating (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh). Last week, Pakistan bracketed Palestine and Kashmir as the UN’s unfinished business in the post-colonial era. North Korea and Iran are flash points that have no military solution.
In the months ahead, without doubt, Washington will continue to provide Israel with military and diplomatic support but an extended Israeli operation lasting months in Gaza will mean dispersal of US resources that might be needed in other theatres. The conflict in Gaza underscores the imperative for a rethink in the US’ notions of global hegemony. The fact remains that the US, despite its self-proclaimed status as the “Indispensable Nation” (Madeleine Albright) and the guarantor of “rules-based order,” failed to prevent the latest eruption of conflict in West Asia.
Arguably, therefore, the latest US proposal for a systematic resumption of strategic dialogue with Russia can be seen as a sign of positive thinking. Unsurprisingly, Moscow has displayed a studied indifference to the US proposal. But that needn’t be taken as the last word. Historically, Soviet-American strategic dialogue brought on board into the agenda all major issues and most minor issues affecting international security.
The big question, therefore, is the timing of the US proposal. Against the backdrop of the gathering storms in West Asia, the Biden Administration probably seeks to calm the nerves by proposing talks with Russia on global strategic balance, since the guardrails in arms control no longer exist. This is one thing.
At any rate, Russia’s “neutrality” in a West Asian conflict could also be a consideration. Equally, Western leaderships understand that the war against Russia is practically lost — although they will not admit it publicly — and engagement with Russia is needed.
Again, although the US has provided Israel with significant military and diplomatic support and keep influencing the latter not to escalate the conflict, there are variables in the situation and any big conflagration in West Asia will require a massive concentration of material and financial resources that are limited even for a superpower, since there are other unresolved problems in the world, too.
The breakdown of trust in the Russian-American ties hurts the US interests. Fundamentally, it must also be understood that what Moscow seeks even today after nearly 20 months of battling NATO and the US in Ukraine’s killing fields is a sustained engagement with Washington and a willingness to accommodate mutual interests.
On its part, Russia is conducting itself as a responsible power vis-a-vis the crisis in Gaza. There is no shred of evidence to show that Russia has acted as a “spoiler”. On the contrary, Moscow has been projecting its credentials as a potential peacemaker who enjoys good relations with all key players — Israel, Hamas, Iran and other regional states alike.
In fact, President Biden’s recent remarks on the Gaza situation bring the US position rather close to Russia’s. Biden read out the following from a prepared text at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia:
“Israel has the right and, I would add, responsibility to respond to the slaughter of their people. And we will ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself against these terrorists. That’s a guarantee…
“But that does not lessen the need for — to operate and align with the laws of war for the Israeli — it has to do everything in its power — Israel has to do everything in its power, as difficult as it is, to protect innocent civilians. And it’s difficult. I also want to take a moment to look ahead toward the future that we seek.
“Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity, and peace. And there’s no going back to the status quo as it stood on October the 6th. That means ensuring Hamas can no longer terrorise Israel and use Palestinian civilians as human shields.
“It also means that when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next. And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution.”
Putin couldn’t have put this across differently. There is a sense of expectation in Moscow that in the emergent conditions in regional security, the US and its allies will “reconsider their notions of defeating Russia in the Ukraine conflict at any cost” — as an establishment think tanker wrote in the Kremlin-funded RT last week.
Trust is lacking, he concluded, “compromises without the full consideration of Russian interests” are difficult to reach, but “a pivotal stage in the (world) order … is taking shape before our eyes.”
US Diplomacy Losing Traction in West Asia
Russia’s Dy Foreign Minister & Special Envoy Mikhail Bogdanov (C) held talks with Iran’s Dy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Hamas’ head of International Relations Mousa Marzouk, Moscow, Oct. 26, 2023
The US President Joe Biden is convinced that one of the reasons why Hamas launched the attack on Israel was because of the announcement during the G20 Summit in New Delhi on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor . But he also admitted that this reading was based purely on his instinct and he did not have any proof for it.
Biden’s motivation in saying so lies in the US’ desperate need to reclaim its leadership role in the Muslim West Asia. The two most compelling realities rejecting the American leadership are: one, a strong united regional solidarity cutting across sectarian divides to seek a settlement on Palestine, like at no time before, and, two, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.
The latest developments involving Hamas and Israel undermined the US efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel. No doubt, the Saudi stance on the Palestine problem has hardened. Biden reached out to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday in an attempt to create as much convergence as possible between Washington and Riyadh.
But the White House readout shows that a critical mass remained elusive; even as the two leaders agreed on generalities, they couldn’t agree on the all-important specific issue of an urgent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
This profound disagreement is also reflected in the UN Security Council where the United Arab Emirates supported the Russian draft resolution, which called for “an immediate, durable and fully respected humanitarian ceasefire”, but opposed the US draft resolution, which was evasive on ending the fighting and instead harped on Israel’s right to self-defence.
A joint statement on Thursday signed by the Foreign Ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Morocco called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. In an admonition to the US and Israel, the statement stated, “The right to self-defence by the United Nations Charter does not justify blatant violations of humanitarian and international law.”
Looking ahead, the big question is about American intention. Is it muscle-flexing or a hidden plot to create facts on the ground that can be seized as casus belli to launch an offensive against Iran, which has been a longstanding project of the neoconservatives dominating the US foreign policy discourse?
Biden declared at a press conference in the White House on Wednesday that he had warned Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that if Tehran continued to “move against” US forces in the region, Washington would respond.
To quote Biden, “My warning to the Ayatollah was that if they continue to move against those troops, we will respond. And he should be prepared. It has nothing to do with Israel.” (Biden was referring to growing attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria.)
The political deputy at the Iranian president’s office, Mohammad Jamshidi has since countered Biden’s remark, saying, “The US messages were neither directed to the leader of the Islamic Revolution nor were they anything but requests from the Iranian side. If Biden thinks he has warned Iran, he should ask his team to show him the text of the messages.”
Hours later, when asked to clarify, the US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby parried, “There was a direct message relayed. That’s as far as I’m going to go.” Conceivably, the recent attacks by militant groups in Syria and Iraq pose a headache to Biden in domestic politics. Reportedly, some two dozen US servicemen have been injured and one military contractor killed so far. There are roughly 2,500 American troops in Iraq and some 900 in Syria.
Possibly, Biden was grandstanding. That is not something unusual in US-Iran standoffs. But more likely, the US hopes to nudge Iran to rein in the free-wheeling militia groups in Syria and Iraq from exacerbating the situation.
Iran is on the same page as China and Russia and the Arab States in calling for an immediate ceasefire so that conditions are available for diplomacy to meaningfully tackle the Palestine problem. They stand for a two-state solution. Ironically, the US also claims it supports a two-state solution.
This is what Biden stated at a press conference in the White House yesterday, reading out of a prepared text: “Israel has the right and, I would add, responsibility to respond to the slaughter of their people. And we will ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself against these terrorists. That’s a guarantee…
“But that does not lessen the need for — to operate and align with the laws of war for the Israeli — it has to do everything in its power — Israel has to do everything in its power, as difficult as it is, to protect innocent civilians …
“I also want to take a moment to look ahead toward the future that we seek. Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live side by side in safety, dignity, and peace. And there’s no going back to the status quo as it stood on October the 6th …
“It also means that when this crisis is over, there has to be a vision of what comes next. And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution. It means a concentrated effort from all the parties — Israelis, Palestinians, regional partners, global leaders — to put us on a path toward peace.”
Do these words sound as if Biden is preparing for a war with Iran? For the first time, perhaps, there is a ray of hope that the US will no longer work around the Palestine problem. The bottom line, as the deliberations at the UN Security Council also testify, is that all responsible powers understand that West Asia continues to be the centre of gravity in world politics and a conflagration in the region could easily turn into a world war. And none of the big powers wants such an apocalyptic outcome.
That said, while the US still has unrivalled power in West Asia, its influence has diminished, as new realities emerged:
- Israel has grown more powerful militarily and economically vis-a-vis Palestinians, but no longer enjoys regional dominance.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two dominant powers in West Asia, are increasingly asserting their own interests.
- China, although a relatively new player, is no longer confining itself to economic diplomacy.
- The US has lost the capacity to leverage the world oil market, as Russia works closely with Saudi Arabia within the ambit of OPEC+ to calibrate oil production level and prices.
- Consequently, the petrodollar is weakening.
- The Abraham Accords have been shelved practically.
- The Arab-Israeli conflict has assumed new dimensions in recent years, thanks to the ascendance of the axis of resistance, which requires new postures and operational thinking on the part of the US.
- Israeli politics has swung sharply to the extreme right.
- The global environment is highly complicated; the peace process can no longer be under US mentorship. On Thursday, Russia hosted a trilateral meeting in Moscow with Iran’s deputy foreign minister and a Hamas delegation. Later, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also Special Presidential Envoy for West Asia and Africa, announced that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas “will soon arrive on an official visit” to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In an all-out war with Iran, the US will take heavy casualties and the state of Israel may face destruction. Indeed, Iran may opt for nuclear deterrent capability. It is a near-certainty that a US-Iran war will turn into a world war. Clearly, war is not an option.
There is high risk, therefore, in an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. If Israel gets bogged down in Gaza, which by no means cannot be ruled out, there is a high possibility that Hezbollah may open a second front. And that, in turn, can trigger a chain reaction that may spin out of control. Herein lies the danger if a ceasefire is not agreed upon early enough in the conflict.
MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. The views are personal.
Courtesy: Indian Punchline
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