Peak Oil Will Lead To WWIII

From Defense And The National Interest a Power Point presentation in PDF by Robert Hirsch on the impact of Peak Oil and US national security. Don't plan for Peak Oil then prepare for WWIII says Hirsch.

And he is serious as are the folks who published his report.

Welcome to Defense and the National Interest. Our aim is to foster debate on the roles of the U.S. armed forces in the post-Cold War era and on the resources devoted to them. The ultimate purpose is to help create a more effective national defense against the types of threats we will likely face during the first decades of the new millennium.Contributors to this site are, with a few exceptions, active/reserve, former, or retired military. They often combine a knowledge of military theory with the practical experience that comes from trying their ideas in the field.

Peak Oil is now a given reality. And its potential threat to create a crisis that needs a military response is no longer thought of as the rantings of just a tiny fringe group. Instead it is a crisis scenario being seriously discussed by military and security wonks.

10/23/07 World Oil Shortage - Scenarios for Mitigation Planning, by Robert L. Hirsch. "The more you think about it, the uglier it gets." Stand by for World War III. [114 KB PDF]

Background
“…it only requires a relatively small amount of oilto be taken out of the system to have huge economic and security implications.”
Robert M. Gates. Oil Shockwave. June 2005.

“The rate of decline after a peak is an important consideration because a decline that is more abrupt will likely have more adverse economic consequences than a decline that is less abrupt.”
GAO-07-283. February 2007.

IEA: There’s Trouble

•“The recent apparent surge in oil and gas investment is illusory, because costs have soared. Real investment in 2005 was barely higher than in 2000.”

•“This energy future is not only unsustainable, it is doomed to failure," because of underinvestment.

•"... we are on course for an energy system that will evolve from crisis to crisis…”
•Excess capacity and demand converge in 2012 (Peaking).

See:

Technocracy Inc. Predicted Oil Crisis Over 50 years ago

Canada Reaches Peak Oil In 2020

Peak Oil: France and Canada Agree

Ontario Succumbs to Peak Oil Crisis

Impeach Bush.....Over Peak Oil

The End of the Oil Age

Caspian Oil

Capitalism Creates Global Warming

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A Glass Half Full Or Half Empty

Two Progressive Bloggers views of Farmer Ed's Royalty compromise. The glass is half full, the glass is half empty. I of course take the latter view.

Stelmach Finds the Balance in the Response to the Royalty Review

alberta's royalty review: who's side is ed stelmach on?

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A Half Billion Short

Not our Fair Share. It's short by a half billion. It doesn't take effect until two years from now, and Ed still has to address the fact that while he was in cabinet we lost between $1 billion and $2 billion a year in what was owed us for ten years.

The new royalty framework announced today will boost overall royalties by $1.4 billion or 20 per cent in 2010. But Stelmach has rejected a call to impose an oilsands severance tax that established producers would have had to begin paying next year.

The new rates, which will hike royalties from current highs of 35 per cent to a maximum 50 per cent for conventional oil and natural gas, won't take effect until 2009.

Under the new framework, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2009, the government projects it will squeeze $1.4-billion more from the oil and gas sector, with most of the increases coming from the oilsands.

The government take from oilsands projects will increase from the current 1% before project payout, to a range of 1% to 9%, depending on oil prices.

When investment is recovered, projects will see royalty increases from the current 25% to a range of 25% to 40%, depending on oil prices. At current oil prices, that translates into a government take of about 65% of net revenue, up from the current 47%.

The new framework will boost government take for natural gas from 58% today to 60%, rather than 63% recommended by the panel; for conventional oil, government take goes up 5% to 49%, which is what the panel proposed; for oilsands, government share increases to between 57% and 66%, when the panel was recommending an increase of 64%.

Even so watch the whining and sniveling begin, as was shown by Oil Lobbyist and Ralph Klein's brain; Rod Love on CBC today.

What Big Oil pays in royalties is a mere $2.2 billion more than what the government brings in from you and I.

Energy royalties and taxes are vital to the Alberta government's Canada-leading wealth. They brought in $9.8 billion last year, compared to only $7.6 billion in personal income taxes.

Auditor General Fred Dunn bolstered the case for higher royalties earlier this month, when he revealed that the government has ignored its own conclusions since 2004 that it could reap $1 billion more a year without damaging oil and gas companies' business prospects.

SEE:

Hugo Stelmach

I Am Malcontent

Who Will Decide About Royalties

Headline Says It All

Ohhh Pulllleeeaasse

Alberta Needs A Chavez

Albertans Are Simpletons Says Government

Royalty Is NOT A Tax

Fearless Prediction Confirmed

Morons

More Shills For Big Oil

Stelmach Sells Out

King Ralph Shills For Big Oil

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December 3 Alberta Election

The cat is out of the bag. Rod Love, Ralph Klein's brain, was on Don Newman's Politics show on CBC today reacting to Ed Stelmach's Royalty announcement. As the guy who worked with Klein to give away our wealth at a penny on the dollar he was in shock. As predicted here Stelmach raised the royalties but not as much as the Royalty report had recommended.

In shock Love inadvertently blurted out the Premier's planned election date as December 3. Mark your calendars.

See:

Mason Hits The Bricks

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Black and White

What a difference it makes in America if you are rich, white and live in California, rather than poor, black and live in New Orleans.

Bush Travels To California To See Fires
President Bush flew to fire-ravaged California Thursday with promises of federal help, supportive words for those who've lost home and businesses and thanks to overworked firefighters.

After Katrina he failed to visit New Orleans until the anniversary of 9/11. Weeks after the hurricane hit. And then it was for another photo op like 9/11.


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Someone Tell Don

Gee now maybe the CBC will dis' him too.

Ezra Levant Disowned By The Sun

See:

Ezra Says Gay Bashers Are Muslims

Don Newmans No Spin Zone

Western Standard RIP

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Cheap Smokes

Lot's of folks get upset when gas prices go up. Amongst those of us who smoke we are always looking for a deal just like them folks buying gas.

And thanks to the competition to get our bucks the oligopolies that are Big Tobacco are willing to provide us with cheaper and cheaper smokes. as the State taxes and taxes them, while the Anti-Smoking lobby fumes and fusses over ways to stop us smoking.

For you smokers in Alberta, and this applies in other areas of Canada as well, here are two cheap brands.

The new kid on the block this month is John Player Standard; Blue and Silver, they have eliminated the term 'light' (due to a court ruling saying it was deceptive advertising which it is since the light brands had MORE nictone than the standard) . Which retails in some parts of Alberta for $62 a carton, GST included,whether in 20's or 25's.

The next cheapest is my favorite union label brand, Canadian. It carries the union bug for the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco workers & Grain Millers union. Which is $64 a carton 20's or 25's, GST included.

So while other brands for sell for anywhere from $7.50-$9 a pack before GST, these are selling for just over $6 a pack. That's like the price from a decade ago!

And the reason for these cheap brands? Why competition. The very nature of the market and capitalism.

Press release: 22 per cent of cigarettes smoked in Canada are illegal

Hot trail leads to cigarettes -ON

Sun, March 4, 2007

By JOE MATYAS, SUN MEDIA

The search for cheap smokes in the area includes smuggling and contraband

Every three weeks or so, Rita and her spouse take a half-hour drive from London to a local First Nations community to buy cheap cigarettes.

In Rita's house, every penny counts. With a modest family income, $70 for a carton of brand-name cigarettes is a steep price to pay for "one of the simple pleasures of life." On the reserve, Rita can buy 200 no-name, untaxed, machine-rolled cigarettes with filter tips in a plastic bag for about $8.

In Edmonton cigarettes still retail in bars, lounges and cigarette machines for price c$10-$12 a pack, despite a wide variety of cheaper brands being available. That' a 100% mark up! Why doesn't Jim Flaherty say something about that, eh?
After all tobacco is a domestic product and industry in Canada.

In 2001, the total revenue from tobacco exports to the USA and the E.E.C combined is over $140 million (140, 535, 000). In other words, Canada sells far more tobacco domestically than is exported abroad. Three large tobacco companies dominate the cigarette market in Canada: Imperial Tobacco Canada Limited, Rothmans, Benson & Hedges Incorporated, and JTI-Macdonald Corporation. In 1999-2000, their combined net sales was approximately $3 billion. Imperial is the largest, followed by RBH and then JTI-Macdonald. Health Canada’s Tobacco Control Programme has compiled cigarette sales data for 2001-2002 on the three major cigarette companies for each province and the total for Canada. For the year ending December 2002, the “big three” combined sales was $3.2 billion

Oh right of all the horrors of capitalism, smoking is the worst.


SEE:

Casablanca R Rated

Anti-Smoking Hypocrites

Punishing the Victim

Forget Cigarettes Ban Asbestos

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The Return of Harry Strom

Fellow progressive blogger Ken Chapman whom the National Post called a Left Wing Conservative says that Farmer Ed's TV speech last night is the return of the Progressive Conservatives. What he really means is the Peter Lougheed Conservatives.

Premier Stelmach Brought Progressive Conservative Politics Back to Alberta Tonight

Well it sure did sound like the platitudes voiced by the old Lougheed government. However he is so bland and boring that despite the Lougheed platitudes he is actually the ghost of Harry Strom.

Nice try Ken. But you can't make a purse out of a sows ear. Or compare the dynamism that was Alberta in 1971 under Lougheed with the dour dull plodding regime of Tired Old Tories that now rules. Nice try though. And congrats for getting quoted in the Pest.



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God bless Alberta

Taking a tact used by Stephen Harper this is how Farmer Ed ended his TV broadcast last night with this little homilie; And God bless Alberta. Hoping to appeal to Ted Morton's supporters I suppose. Since we are an oil state he should have been more inclusive and also said Allah bless Alberta, heck even Yod Heh Vau Heh bless Alberta as a sop to Ezra and his pals. All these are just another way of saying God. Whoever she is.

On the other hand the God of Capitalism is Mammon, and considering Ed is the servant of Big Oil perhaps that's whom was referring to.




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Alberta Election In The Offing

Here is the slogan Alberta CEO Ed Stelmach and his Tired Old Tories will be using in the upcoming election he prepared us for in his Ed TV show last night; The Future Is Bright" and " Our Future is Secure"

The future of our province is indeed bright."

We will secure Alberta’s future.

We need new ideas — new attitudes — to secure Alberta’s future.

In the case of the last slogan there was nothing new in his speech last night, no new ideas, nor any new commitments. It was Forward To The Past. It was a pre-election announcement speech. And it didn't fail to disappoint.

Add these possible Election slogans;

we will get it done!

sound and practical environmental vision.

And this one; Strong communities built with strong families.

Strong communities are much more than roads and buildings.

They’re built with strong families.

Suddenly I am having a flashback to 1971 and Peter Lougheed.

Central to our future prosperity is a commitment to add value to our traditional strengths in energy, agriculture, forestry, tourism, and health sciences.

We must build on those strengths, and develop new areas of promise.

This will involve making choices — and even taking some risks.

But being timid and doing nothing is a far greater threat to our future.

The diversification of our economy will be driven by the creativity and innovation of Albertans.

While we all waited with baited breathe in anticipation of the much predicted announcement on Oil Royalties, it didn't come last night. Near the end of his forty minute snoozer that we got told that the government would take decisive action but we have to wait till later today to find out what it is says Mr. Ed. Big Oils Talking Horse.

As I’m sure you know, the review panel delivered their recommendations a few weeks ago. I made their report public as soon as we received it — so that it could receive the widest possible public debate.

And that’s certainly happened.

We’ve taken the time to give this important issue the serious thought Albertans would expect from their government.

And we’ve taken the time to get it right.

Now we’re ready to take decisive action.

Tomorrow we’ll be releasing details of a new royalty framework. One that delivers the fair share Albertans rightly expect from the development of their resources.

The Royalty report was released a month ago, giving the Big Oil Lobby lots of time to create a climate of fear. And Ed is trembling. And what do you think he will announce. Well it won't be anything the Royalty Report recommends. As he told us in his wrap up. And of course he will be announcing his historic betrayl of the Volk of Alberta in Calgary with the Petro-Towers of Big Oil as his backdrop.

A province where government gets out of your way — and where you can keep the fruits of your hard work.

That’s my promise as your Premier.

So if you snoozed through his bland, milquetoast TV show last night you didn't miss anything. It was all platitudes and homilies spun by Farmer Ed. Paid for by you and I as it was broadcast on CTV. And it didn't get broadcast on radio.

Also passing strange it was not broadcast on the hour. It wasn't broadcast at 6pm or 6:30 pm but at 6:40. So if you were channel flipping looking for it well it was easy to miss, just like so much this Tired Old Government does. It came right after the weather report which reflects the farmer mentality of our Premier.

He is a lame duck Premier like his historic predecessor that other farmer Premier; Harry Strom. And his decision on Royalties will determine if he will repeat Harry's folly. So far he has been true to script.

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