Learn from past to protect oceans

by University of Exeter

Oyster fishing in the eastern US. Image shows oyster fishery, cannery of Pearson & Co., Baltimore. Credit: NOAA Photo Library

History holds valuable lessons—and stark warnings—about how to manage fisheries and other ocean resources, a new study says.

Researchers examined 20 historical examples of fisheries and aquaculture (fish farming), dating from 40 to 800 years ago.The study, led by the universities of Exeter, Hull and Boston, found consistent patterns that resulted in so-called "blue growth"—the development of sustainable ocean economies that benefitted whole communities.

It also noted common "recipes for failure"—and the authors say these offer grave warnings for today.

"Our aim was to see if we could learn from past successes and failures," said Dr. Ruth Thurstan, of the Centre for Ecology and Conservation at the University of Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall.

"We often assume our problems are new, but a look at the past shows societies have faced similar issues before—though many of our challenges today are on a bigger scale.

"Some past societies ultimately failed at blue growth, while others succeeded in balancing economic growth, social equity and sustainability for varying lengths of time."

Dr. Thurstan added: "In basic terms, success came when societies managed to achieve fair—rather than unlimited or open—access to resources, and when they were responsive to change.

"Basing decisions on evidence, getting all parties involved and planning for the long-term were also key.

"Failure occurred when short-term gains were prioritised over long-term sustainability."

Dr. Bryony Caswell, of the School of Geography, Geology and the Environment at the University of Hull said: "Worryingly, the recipes for success that we discovered are rarely included in even the most advanced blue growth agendas today.

"The seas are destined to play an ever-more vital role in food security. If we don't take this chance to learn from history, we may be condemning ourselves to repeating past mistakes."

The study, by an international team of 28 historians, environmental scientists and marine ecologists, looked at examples from around the world.

These included:

• Galway Bay in Ireland where, before the 1850s, community-based management led to equitable access and sustainable management of fish stocks. In the 1850s, trawlers from England arrived. Locally agreed rules were ignored and fish stocks were over-exploited.
• In the Lagoon of Venice, Italy, local regulations achieved a "balance" between the economic freedom of citizens and the protection of shared resources, lasting from the 12th to the 18th Century. After that, political instability and growing demand for food led to regulations being scrapped, resulting in over-exploitation.
• In Japan, access to seaweed resources that benefitted the majority rather than a minority of people, use of traditional knowledge systems and enhanced seaweed cultivation techniques, helped achieve a balance between market demand and ecological sustainability from the 1600s onwards.
• In the east USA, two centuries of over-exploitation and worsening water quality led to a 20th Century collapse of once-widespread oyster reefs. While oyster production today is still far lower than historical levels, a growing appreciation of their benefits to coastal ecosystems has led to large-scale efforts by local communities to restore oyster reefs.

"The question is, can our modern societies achieve blue growth rather than exploiting and depleting our oceans?" said Dr. Emily Klein, of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University.

"History shows us that there are ways to balance sustainability, social equity and economic growth.

"It is difficult, but we believe there are opportunities to make it happen—especially if we can learn from the past."

The paper, published in the journal Fish and Fisheries, is entitled: "Something old, something new: Historical perspectives provide lessons for blue growth agendas."

East African fish in need of recovery

More information: Bryony A. Caswell et al, Something old, something new: Historical perspectives provide lessons for blue growth agendas, Fish and Fisheries (2020). DOI: 10.1111/faf.12460

Journal information: Fish and Fisheries 

No time to waste to avoid future food shortages

by ARC Centre of Excellence for Translational Photosynthesis

Professor Robert Furbank, CoETP Director and Professor John Evans, CoETP Chief investigator at the ANU glasshouses in Canberra, Australia Credit: Natalia Bateman, ARC Centre of Excellence for Translational Photosynthesis

During the past few weeks, empty supermarket shelves, without pasta, rice and flour due to panic buying, has caused public concerns about the possibility of running out of food. Australian farmers have reassured consumers saying that the country produces enough food to feed three times its population. However, will this statement remain true in ten to twenty years in a country severely affected by climate change? The answer is yes, if we are prepared for this and if there is continuous funding towards creating solutions to increase crop production.


"Plant scientists are punching above their weight by participating in global, interdisciplinary efforts to find ways to increase crop production under future climate change conditions. We essentially need to double the production of major cereals before 2050 to secure food availability for the rapidly growing world population," says ANU Professor Robert Furbank from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Translational Photosynthesis (CoETP).

"It is similar to finding a virus vaccine to solve a pandemic, it doesn't happen overnight. We know that Australia's agriculture is going to be one area of the world that is most affected by climate extremes, so we are preparing to have a toolbox of plant innovations ready to ensure global food security in a decade or so, but to do this we need research funding to continue," Professor Furbank says.

Several examples of these innovative solutions were published recently in a special issue on Food Security Innovations in Agriculture in the Journal of Experimental Botany, including five reviews and five research articles.

Co-editor of the Special Issue, ANU Professor John Evans, says that this publication highlights the now widely accepted view that improving photosynthesis—the process by which plants convert sunlight, water and CO2 into organic matter—is a new way to increase crop production that is being developed.

"We are working on improving photosynthesis on different fronts, as the articles included in this special issue show, from finding crop varieties that need less water, to tweaking parts of the process in order to capture more carbon dioxide and sunlight. We know that there is a delay of at least a decade to get these solutions to the breeders and farmers, so we need to start developing new opportunities now before we run out of options," says Professor Evans, CoETP Chief Investigator.

The special issue includes research solutions that range from traditional breeding approaches to ambitious genetic engineering projects using completely different ends of the technological spectrum; from robot tractors, to synthetic biology. All these efforts are focused on finding ways to make crops more resistant to drought and extreme climate conditions and being more efficient in the use of land and fertilisers.

"Our research is contributing to providing food security in a global context, and people often ask what that has to do with Australian farmers and my answer is everything. Aside from the fact that economy and agriculture are globally inter-connected, if Australian farmers have a more productive resilient and stable crop variety, they are able to plan for the future, which turns into a better agribusiness and at the same time, ensures global security across the world," says Professor Furbank.

Too much sugar doesn't put the brakes on turbocharged crops



















































































































More information: John R Evans et al, From green to gold: agricultural revolution for food security, Journal of Experimental Botany (2020). DOI: 10.1093/jxb/eraa110
Provided by ARC Centre of Excellence for Translational Photosynthesis

Zero-emissions Boston could save 288 lives and $2.4 billion annually

by Boston University School of Medicine

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Air pollution from just the City of Boston contributes to nearly as many deaths across the wider region as car crashes do, as well as non-fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disease and days of missed work.

With much of the City of Boston shut down by COVID-19, the region is enjoying better air quality than it has seen in decades, a preview of the reduced emissions that will come as part of the city's ambitious "Carbon Free Boston" goals.

But what if Boston eliminated all emissions—and not just because of a pandemic, but for good? That is the question asked by a new Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

The study estimates that a zero-emissions Boston would mean over 200 deaths avoided in the city (and the rest of Suffolk County) each year, with reductions in fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular and respiratory illness extending all the way from Worcester to Barnstable and into southern New Hampshire and northern Rhode Island, with 6 deaths avoided per 100,000 people in the whole region—which the researchers note is roughly equivalent to the Massachusetts motor vehicle crash fatality rate.

"Public health and climate policymaking are intertwined," says study lead author Matthew Raifman, a doctoral student in environmental health at BUSPH. "While Boston's climate policies are focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, these actions will also likely reduce deaths and improve the quality of life of residents of Boston and the surrounding region."

The researchers also estimated that the resulting decrease in medical costs and lost/reduced work could save $1.7 billion in Suffolk County, and $2.4 billion for the entire 75-square-mile zone modeled in the study.

"In showing the substantial health and economic benefits that clean air can bring to Boston area residents, this study demonstrates that climate action isn't just about saving the planet; it's also about making us healthier," says study senior author Dr. Patrick Kinney, Beverly Brown Professor of Urban Health and professor of environmental health at BUSPH.

Raifman, Kinney, and colleagues used the US Environmental Protection Agency's Community Multiscale Air Quality model to estimate the 2011 emissions and air quality status quo for Boston and the surrounding 75 square miles, focusing on air pollutants known to harm health: PM2.5 (particulates with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers, or 3 percent of the diameter of a human hair) and O3 (ozone). They then set the model's human-made emissions—including motor vehicles, generators, rail, industry, all oil- and gas-burning, shipping and boating, and residential wood fire—from within Boston's city limits to zero.

They found that a zero-emissions Boston would halve PM2.5 concentrations in the city itself, and slightly decrease concentrations for the rest of the modeled zone. Concentrations of ozone would also decrease across much of zone, although Boston and areas west of the city would actually see an increase in ozone during warmer months—which the researchers explain is because of the reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions that would normally transform ozone into other compounds.

The researchers then used the EPA's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) Community Edition v1.5 to estimate how these changes in PM2.5 and ozone would affect health at the county level. The health benefits from the decrease in PM2.5 would mainly override the health harms of increased ozone, resulting in 288 fewer deaths per year across the 75-square-mile area, mainly in Boston and the Greater Boston area. A zero-emissions Boston would also prevent 116 non-fatal heart attacks, 46 cardiovascular hospitalizations, 117 cases of chronic bronchitis, and over 17,000 asthma attacks across the zone, again mainly in Boston. However, the high ozone levels would increase emergency room visits for asthma and respiratory hospitalizations.

Looking at the effects by race and ethnicity, the researchers found that the greatest reduction in deaths and non-fatal health issues relative to population size would be in black residents, who the researchers note currently bear the greatest burden of environmental injustice and are more likely to live in Boston than any other area in the larger modeled zone.

The researchers estimated that the decrease in deaths, hospitalizations, days of missed work, and other benefits of a zero-emission Boston would translate to savings of $1.7 billion for Suffolk County, $182 million for Norfolk County, $159 million for Middlesex County, and tens of millions of dollars in savings for other surrounding counties in eastern Massachusetts and bordering states.

"In this study, we focused only on the City of Boston's climate action plan, but it's important to note that Boston's actions will not occur in a vacuum," Raifman says. "Many cities across the region are pursuing similar climate goals. The sum may be different from the parts."Health effects of China's climate policy extend across Pacific

More information: Matthew Raifman et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 2020 in press https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842b

Journal information: Environmental Research Letters 

SMU professors detail how homeless students are doing educationally in Houston ISD

by Southern Methodist University

Simmons professors Alexandra Pavlakis and Meredith Richards look at research information with Kessa Roberts, post doctoral fellow. Credit: SMU

A new report by SMU professors Alexandra Pavlakis and Meredith Richards details how homeless students in Houston ISD are faring educationally.

Released by the Houston Education Research Consortium at Rice University, the report makes clear that homeless students are at an elevated risk of a range of adverse educational outcomes, and the findings also highlight the complexity of the relationship between homelessness and student outcomes. Pavlakis and Richards, who are both assistant professors at SMU's Simmons School of Education & Human Development, looked at students who were homeless from 2012-13 to 2016-17, the years immediately preceding Hurricane Harvey.

Some of the key findings include:

• Students experiencing homelessness were more likely to drop out of school than their matched, non-homeless peers.
• Students who were homeless four and five years tended to have higher attendance than students who were homeless for shorter periods of time.
• Unaccompanied youth had substantially lower attendance than accompanied homeless students, and less likely to pass the STAAR exams than accompanied homeless students.
• Where students sleep matters. Attendance gaps were large for unsheltered students and students in motels.
• Interestingly, homeless students tended to perform better on STAAR exams than their matched peers. This could hint at the potential value of educational supports and resources inherent in McKinney-Vento Act or provided at shelters or drop-in centers for homelessness. However, homeless students were also somewhat less likely to take STAAR tests—particularly in math.

Pavlakis and Richards also make recommendations on what the school district might consider to improve student outcomes. Simmons post doctoral fellow Kessa Roberts, Ph.D. assisted with the research. The Moody Foundation and SMU's University Research Council supported the research. This is a long-term project for the researchers.

Homeless on campus? New social work study examines student homelessness

More information:

https://kinder.rice.edu/sites/g/files/bxs1676/f/documents/Complexity%20in%20Student%20Homelessness.pdf

Provided by Southern Methodist University 

Pet stress has increased during COVID-19, bringing behavior problems

by Genevieve Rajewski, Tufts University

“Pets’ world just suddenly turned upside down,” said Stephanie Borns-Weil. “And while individual dogs and cats may vary in their reactions, change in general is very challenging for most animals.” Credit: Ingimage

As the COVID-19 pandemic closes many schools for the rest of the year and confines nonessential workers and the unemployed to staying at home, many of us are going a little stir crazy, not to mention experiencing feelings of anxiety about what the future holds.

Even the youngest elementary school kid can probably understand to some degree why what's happening is happening—and how she feels about the loss of her usual routine.

But dogs and cats aren't equipped to process what has happened or to guess how to adapt.

"Pets' world just suddenly turned upside down," said Stephanie Borns-Weil, V07, head of the behavior service at Cummings Veterinary Medical Center. "And while individual dogs and cats may vary in their reactions, change in general is very challenging for most animals."

Although our pets may enjoy getting to spend more time with us, the dramatic shift in their routines stresses many of them out. As a result, many people who may have dreamed of being home all day with their pets have realized that, in reality, it can be. . . challenging.

Many pets are acting needier than usual, noted Borns-Weil. This may include constantly being underfoot, relentlessly nosing us to pet them, or barking incessantly to go outside.

"A lot of it is because routines are upended, and pets have no idea how to function in the new world order," she explained. "Some of it is due to opportunity—pets have us around all the time, so why not keep begging for their next meal or sitting at the door? And much of it is that pets are looking for our attention to relieve their own stress or anxiety, and they only have one or two ways of asking us for that."

Other pandemic pet problems are behaviors that probably happened at other times, such as barking at passersby.

"Everybody and their brother are out walking their dogs or taking walks all day because that's the only exercise we can get with the gyms closed and our schedules disrupted," said Borns-Weil. "So now you may be seeing more territorial barking. When you used to experience that on the weekend, it wasn't a big deal. But when you're on a teleconference call with an important client, the constant barking becomes a big issue."

Cats in general experience stress differently than dogs, noted Borns-Weil. "Cats can be overwhelmed by having people around when they weren't expecting them, especially young kids, who tend to add more noise and chaos."

Cats can express stress—as do a much smaller number of dogs—through unwelcome changes in bathroom behavior, such as urinating outside the litter box.

And while dogs are more apt to turn toward us when they're feeling stressed, cats are more prone to turn away, Borns-Weil said. "So that's something to look out for—is your cat becoming depressed and hiding all day? If your cat has the opportunity to engage with members of the family, are they avoiding them instead?"

Although none of these pet-behavior problems are insurmountable, "when we're all trapped in the house together 24/7 and have to get things done, any of these situations can put a lot of tension on the human-animal bond," said Borns-Weil.

“Cats can be overwhelmed by having people around when they weren’t expecting them, especially young kids, who tend to add more noise and chaos,” said Stephanie Borns-Weil. Credit: Depositphotos

Fortunately, there are a few strategies you can follow to get back on track.

Be patient with your pet. For all of us, all the rules have changed, said Borns-Weil. "If you feel yourself getting angry with your pet, remember that they're not trying to be naughty. Animals don't know how to be vindictive.

"They don't know our buttons—so if they push them, it's by accident. Our pets are engaging in frustrating behaviors because they don't know what's going on and are trying to communicate an unmet need. What they're saying is, "I need more enrichment' or "I'm worried and I'm trying to get your attention.'"

Create and stick to a routine. The more consistent we can be with a daily routine, the clearer we are about what pets can expect during this time of change. Stick to regular meal and walk times for your pet and schedule in opportunities for social interactions such as play time and cuddling.

And be proactive about avoiding situations that may inadvertently reinforce attention-seeking behavior. For example, Borns-Weil advised, "just before you sit down in your home office, take your dog for a walk and then give him a Kong or another enrichment toy so he is otherwise occupied while you have a Zoom meeting with that important client."

Give dogs and cats some space. Pets need both quiet time and boundaries. "Being around people all day, every day, can be a lot for animals," said Borns-Weil. "To put it in human terms, they may start to feel like they're like they're always on call."

Give dogs and cats places they can escape to for a break. Whether it's a beanbag bed, open crate, or corner of the couch for your dog or a window perch or chair back for your cat, designate their favorite spot as a place where no one is allowed to bother them.

"And when your pet is in that place, don't let anyone pick them up, move them, pet them, or feed them," she said. "This will help your animal build their resilience and ability to cope with unusually high levels of social interaction."

Ensure a child-safe environment. "Parents may be used to keeping an eye on children around pets for limited periods of time," said Borns-Weil. "But with kids around in the house all day, every day, parents need to re-visit if the home is truly a child-safe environment with respect to the pets."

Never leave babies or small children alone with an animal. Make sure there are plenty of elevated surfaces where your cat can quickly get out of reach of a child before she loses her patience. And install a gate if necessary to keep children away from the dog's feeding area and resting place to prevent common dog-bite situations.

Plan for an eventual return to normal. "If your cat is loving having you home all day, she may start to feel some separation distress when we return to real life," Borns-Weil said. Make sure to guard against that by including some time away from pets in your pandemic routine. Go for a drive or walk or otherwise engage in safe activities elsewhere that do not include pets. This will help dogs and cats retain the skills of being able to entertain themselves and enjoy their alone time.

Although the new stay-at-home normal can be tough on us all, Borns-Weil said there may be a silver lining for our pets. "I think we'll come out of this with a much deeper sense of empathy for what our animals go through when we leave them locked in a house alone all day," she said.

"Look at how hard we are all striving to maintain mental stimulation, physical activity, and social connections now that we are stuck at home all day. When we're not doing our jobs from home, we're doing puzzles, watching movies, working out in our basements, and holding online parties with our friends," she said.

"We have gotten a taste of how most pets lived when they were spending all day home alone, every day, during normal times. But they need mental stimulation, social contact, and exercise during the day to be happy, too. And I hope this universal experience will end up being good for our pets going forward."

Is your dog really happy you're home?

Video: Why are we acting like wolves at night?

by University of Colorado at Boulder

A wolf howls in the forest. Credit: Steve Felberg / Pixabay

Around the world, people are collectively making noise while social distancing. In Colorado, we're howling like wolves. Joanna Lambert, a professor in the Program of Environmental Studies, studies wolf communication.

She discusses with CU Boulder Today why wolves howl, why Coloradans may be howling each night to connect with each other, and how to most accurately join in this nightly chorus.

Wolves howl because they care

New tsunami risk identified in Indonesia

by Sarah McDaid, Heriot-Watt University

Credit: Geological Society

A team of scientists led by Heriot-Watt University has identified a potential new tsunami risk in Indonesia by mapping below the seabed of the Makassar Strait.

The team says their findings mean that coastal communities currently without tsunami warning systems or mitigation systems could be at risk.

This includes the proposed site of the new Indonesian capital on the island of Borneo.

The researchers used seismic data to map underneath the seafloor of the Makassar Strait, a narrow seaway between the islands of Borneo and Sulawesi.

They found evidence of 19 ancient submarine landslides. Submarine landslides have triggered tsunami waves before, such as the 2018 event on Sulawesi in Indonesia, although most tsunamis are caused by large earthquakes.

Dr. Rachel Brackenridge, now at University of Aberdeen, said: "We found evidence of submarine landslides happening over 2.5million years.

"They happened every 160,000 years or so and ranged greatly in size.

"The largest of the landslides comprised 600 km3 of sediment, while the smallest we identified were five km3.

"There will be many smaller events that we have yet to identify."

Dr. Brackenridge explained how they identified the ancient landslides.

"Seismic data allows us to image the subsurface. The different characteristics of rocks below the seabed allow us to reconstruct the conditions they were deposited in.

"We can see a layered and orderly seabed, then there are huge bodies of sediment that appear chaotic.

"We can tell from the internal characteristics that these sediments have spilled down a slope in a rapid, turbulent manner. It's like an underwater avalanche."

The researchers say that the strong ocean current that flows through the Makassar Strait could be behind the prehistoric events and any potential submarine landslides.

Dr. Uisdean Nicholson, who led the research at Heriot-Watt University, said: "The Makassar Strait is an important oceanic gateway. It's through there the main branch of the Indonesian Throughflow transports water—over 10 million cubic metres a second—from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean.

"The current acts as a conveyor belt, transporting sediment from the Mahakam Delta and dumping it on the upper continental slope to the south, making the seabed steeper, weaker and more likely to collapse.

"We estimate the largest, tsunamigenic events—those that displace 100 km3—occurred every 500,000 years.

"Indonesia has mitigation and early warning measures in place in different parts of the country, but not the area that would be affected by a tsunami wave generated from these landslides.

"This includes the cities of Balikpapan and Samarinda, which have a combined population of over 1.6 million people.

"Such an event could be concentrated and amplified by Balikpapan Bay, the site selected for the new capital city of Indonesia.

"Our next step is to quantify the risk in this area by building various numerical models of landslide events and tsunami generation.

"This could help us predict a threshold size that causes dangerous tsunamis and help inform any mitigation strategies.

"We also plan to visit the coastal areas of Kalimantan to look for physical evidence for historic or prehistoric tsunamis, to test the model outcomes and further improve our understanding of this hazard."

Professor David Tappin of the British Geological Survey and UCL was involved in the study, and is working on the Sulawesi tsunami, which struck the opposite side of the Makassar Strait in September 2018.

Professor Tappin said: "The new study on submarine landslides is important in demonstrating that the tsunami hazard in this region of Indonesia is possibly greater than previously thought, but more research is necessary to confirm this."

Professor Ben Sapiie from Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia, said: "This research enriches the Indonesian geological and geophysical communities' knowledge about sedimentation and landslide hazards in the Makassar Strait. The future of earth sciences research is using an integrated, multi-scientific approach with international collaborators."

Dr. Nicholson recently identified ancient submarine landslides near the Falkland Islands in a separate research project.

Deep-ocean conveyor belt current creates tsunami risk for Falkland Islands

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More information: Rachel E. Brackenridge et al. Indonesian Throughflow as a preconditioning mechanism for submarine landslides in the Makassar Strait, Geological Society, London, Special Publications (2020). DOI: 10.1144/SP500-2019-171

Pandemics and pollution: A conversation with an atmospheric scientist

by Robert Perkins, California Institute of Technology

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

You may have seen the striking before-and-after photos: cities previously blanketed by a dense fog of air pollution now sporting clear skies, as COVID-19 stay-at-home orders bring auto traffic and industry to a halt.

But the issue of improved air quality is not as simple as the photos may suggest, says Caltech's Paul Wennberg, the R. Stanton Avery Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry and Environmental Science and Engineering. Wennberg, an atmospheric chemist and environmental geochemist, studies the influence of human activity on the global atmosphere.

We talked with Wennberg by Zoom to get his take on what we can learn by observing COVID-19's impact on air pollution, and why we are not seeing the same dramatic effects in the Los Angeles area that have been observed elsewhere in the world.

Can you describe the effects on the environment that have been attributed to the COVID-19 stay-at-home orders?

It really depends on where you are. We have seen substantial drops in air-pollution levels as indicated by nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels, first in China and then in Europe and North America. But there's a lot of nuance in how you interpret those observations because they're very sensitive to things like weather.

For example, Los Angeles had a very rainy period following the start of the stay-at-home orders, and the rain helps clear the air by removing a lot of the soluble pollutants such as aerosols and particles. Linkages between the reduction in emissions and improvements in the air quality are much easier to make in places like India and China than in a place like Los Angeles.

Why is that?

People sometimes don't realize it, but in Los Angeles cars are thought to contribute only a small fraction of the air pollution. Compared to decades past, cars have gotten incredibly clean. We anticipate that the reduction in car traffic reduced the emissions of major pollutants by maybe 10 percent, which is substantial, but pretty small overall. These days, NOx [nitrogen oxide] emissions in Los Angeles come primarily from trucks and other diesel-fueled engines. If you just go out on the highway now, you'll see there are still plenty of trucks.

What about elsewhere in the world?

In other places, the connection between the reduction in traffic associated with COVID-19 and a reduction in air pollution is easier to establish. In Europe, there are far more diesel cars, which emit a lot of NOx. Taking them off of the road has made a much more noticeable impact.

In India, there's been a substantial reduction in electricity demand—a 26 percent drop in just 10 days—so they're turning off coal plants, which also leads to cleaner air. You can contrast that with California, where electricity consumption is down, but not that much. We're down maybe 5 to 10 percent. We're all at home here, but we're still online, using our computers. A lot of the activities that demand electricity just really haven't changed in the way that they would have in a place like India or China, where the manufacturing sector is so dominant.

Will global weather patterns eventually have a homogenizing effect, causing cleaner air everywhere?

To an extent. We anticipate seeing the background levels of ozone in the atmosphere decrease in a more global way, which is a good thing. But a lot of particulate matter doesn't travel far, so the environment's response to this is still going to be pretty localized.

What impact will the changes in air quality have on cloud formation?

Two aspects of this are being tracked. We are interested in quantifying the role of aircraft in producing high-altitude cirrus clouds, which can be found above 16,500 feet and warm the earth. Studies done following 9/11 tried to pin that down using the lack of aircraft in that week following the attack, and these studies suggested that cirrus-cloud creation accounts for perhaps half of the total climate impact of aviation, trapping heat and contributing to global warming.

With the number of flights worldwide decreasing by about two thirds from the end of February to the end of March, we're seeing the 9/11 effect on a global scale. This will be much easier to interpret because it's persisting for a long time, and because it varies by region. For the most part, air travel decreased in China first, and then in Europe, and then in the United States. Presumably the return to aviation will also be heterogeneous, allowing one to try to disentangle the local effects from the effects of the airplanes themselves.

We're also interested in low-altitude clouds, which occur below 6,500 feet. Every cloud droplet has, at its core, a particle that was pre-existing in the atmosphere, so it has been suggested that aerosol pollution has led to changes in cloudiness, and that this has been an important component of climate forcing. Clouds can trap heat, warming the earth. The reduction in aerosol pollution associated with the COVID-19 situation should provide a very, very useful test of those theories which are hard to evaluate in other ways, because effectively both the climate and the pollution story have been co-evolving over 50 years.

What other research opportunities does this represent?

Right before this happened, we had submitted a proposal to the National Science Foundation to study what Los Angeles and the United States would look like, from an air-quality perspective, if we didn't have emitting vehicles anymore. Now we have a better idea based on hard data. As a side project to that proposal, the Resnick Sustainability Institute and the Ronald and Maxine Linde Center for Global Environmental Science commissioned an air-quality station for campus, and it was assembled by one of my staff members, John Crounse [Ph.D. '11], in January and February, just in time to start observing this.

What other tools will be useful for analyzing this?

Right now, we aren't able to get access to a lot of the national science assets that you'd use to track air quality. Normally, you can say, "Let's go take that National Science Foundation airplane and go fly over and have a look and see what's going on." Now, those planes are grounded.

However, we do have a number of remote-sensing instruments, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatories, OCO-2 and OCO-3. Most of the images that you'll see in the newspaper and on Twitter come from a Dutch instrument called Tropomi, which is a sensor that was launched just a couple of years ago and maps a number of criteria of pollutants, as we call them, from space at pretty high resolution. In addition, there are a couple of other JPL instruments [JPL is managed by Caltech for NASA] that are tracking changes in, for example, carbon monoxide pollution.

Is this going to have a long-term impact, or will air pollution just go back to where it was when the stay-at-home orders lift?

That's actually more of a social than an environmental question. Once you restart the activities that cause air pollution, it'll come roaring back. But there are places that have historically had really bad air pollution and a lot of the population has never really experienced clean air. Suddenly they're experiencing it, and I just can't believe that won't have an effect. People will have seen something different, and I wouldn't be surprised if they will then demand it. We've shown in the U.S. that you can have both good air quality and substantial economic activity. I think people haven't experienced this in a lot of the rest of the world.

What is next?

Springtime weather in Los Angeles is highly variable, making it complicated to interpret the air-quality data we're gathering now. If the stay-at-home orders go on through the summer—and let's hope they don't—we'll have a much better answer to the scientific question of what happens when you reduce car traffic by a factor of two, or three, or four, or whatever we've done.

From a climate-change standpoint, it's as though we've been conducting a centuries-long global experiment by slowly adding more and more carbon dioxide and particulate pollution into the atmosphere. Our knowledge of the impacts of those emissions is challenged by the lack of historical records. But now we've done the reverse—especially for particulate pollution—in a very dramatic and direct way, and at a time when we have better tools to understand it. Seeing how this plays out should be quite a bit more straightforward.Virus lockdown makes big dent in Paris air pollution: report

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Are bats to blame for the coronavirus crisis?

by Diana Yates, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Illinois Natural History Survey wildlife biologist Tara Hohoff holds a bat during mist netting to collect data on bat populations in central Illinois. Credit: Steve Taylor

Horseshoe bats in China are a natural wildlife reservoir of SARS-like coronaviruses. Some health experts think wildlife markets—specifically in Wuhan, China—led to the spillover of the new coronavirus into human populations. Though not confirmed, the hypothesis has given bats around the world a bad rap, and public fears of exposure to bats are on the rise. Illinois Natural History Survey wildlife biologist Tara Hohoff, the project coordinator of the Illinois Bat Conservation Program, spoke to News Bureau life sciences editor Diana Yates about bat biology and conservation, and the flying mammals' role in human health.

Are bats a danger to humans?

Generally, no, bats do not endanger people. Bats can be carriers of diseases such as coronaviruses and rabies, but these diseases are not a danger to humans unless people come into contact with bat blood or saliva—a rare occurrence in the U.S. Rabies can be contracted from almost any mammal species, but is commonly reported in bats, raccoons, skunks and foxes. Because bat species are able to withstand and survive infection with many viruses, there is a lot of interest in researching how their immune systems respond to these infections.

What are other common misconceptions about bats?

People tend to believe that bats are like rodents, that all bat species are similar, that they commonly carry dangerous diseases and that they seek to interact with humans—for example, by flying into their hair. But bats are not closely related to rodents and they are an incredibly diverse order of animals. They range from very tiny bumblebee bats that live in caves to large flying foxes. Bat species worldwide eat a wide range of food, including fruit, nectar, insects and fish.

Most bats try to stay as far away from humans as possible, but this is made more challenging as we continue to take away their habitat. Many bat species here in the Midwest prefer to roost in the shaggy bark of dead trees, but as there are fewer trees available, the bats may find their only shelter in people's attics, sheds and garages. This puts them in close proximity to humans where unwanted interactions may occur.

What is the relationship between wildlife markets and the emergence of diseases like the new coronavirus?

Wildlife markets commonly have numerous types of animals that have been harvested from the wild kept in very close proximity to one another. These are animals that would not naturally come into contact with one another. Sometimes live and dead animals are stacked on top of one another, making the transfer of blood or saliva commonplace. People who work in these markets or who purchase animals for the exotic animal trade or for culinary uses are at high risk of exposure to a multitude of diseases.

What is a spillover event? What factors influence whether this occurs?

A spillover event occurs when a pathogen is transferred from its host species to a new species, typically through unnatural contact such as occurs in a wildlife market. The historical host species may have evolved some immunity to the pathogen, while the newly affected species will likely have no natural resistance, making it susceptible to an outbreak.

Some factors that influence the potential for spillover in a wildlife market include the level of infection, sanitary conditions, food preparation methods and the pathogen's compatibility with the newly exposed species. Another interesting factor that influences whether an exposure will turn into an outbreak is how deadly the pathogen is. Diseases that quickly kill their hosts have reduced opportunities to infect new individuals, while less deadly diseases can spread to more individuals.

Is there a solution to this problem?

It is important to reiterate that bats do not choose to interact with humans. We put ourselves at risk when we take animals from the wild and bring them into contact with humans—as occurs, for example, in the Netflix documentary series "Tiger King." We also endanger ourselves when we don't think carefully about how we source animal-derived products, when we destroy habitat, when we live in close proximity to wildlife and when we feed and habituate wildlife to humans. We need to respect wildlife for what it should be, which is wild.

How do bat research and conservation aid human health and society?

Bats are an incredible group of organisms for research because they are so diverse. Their evolution of flight, echolocation (in many species) and adaptations for being nocturnal are all fascinating areas for research. Many species of bats are very long-lived considering their size, so scientists are interested in studying how they age. As mentioned earlier, species such as horseshoe bats have unique immune systems that allow them to survive infectious diseases that are detrimental to other species. We have a lot to learn about how that is possible.

Also, many species of bats perform vital ecosystem services that are useful to human health and economics, such as eating insects, pollinating plants by feeding on nectar and dispersing fruit seeds. For example, researchers at Southern Illinois University estimated that insectivore bat species provide about $1 billion globally in suppression of insects that damage corn crops. Here in Illinois, the suppression of agricultural pests is incredibly important, but we also benefit when local bats consume backyard pests like mosquitoes.Spillover: Why germs jump species from animals to people

Provided by University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 

Homelessness will worsen due to COVID-19 outbreak—but there are solutions

by Joan Brasher, Vanderbilt University

Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Eradicating homelessness in America is possible, but it will take "political will," according Vanderbilt University research professor and author Marybeth Shinn.

"The inequality that leads some to live in mansions while others live on the streets is not an inexorable consequence of market forces; it is a consequence of social policies," says Shinn, Cornelius Vanderbilt Professor at Vanderbilt Peabody College of education and human development. "We can choose differently. We can put an end to it."

Despite an abundance of social programs and interventions, large numbers of people continue to live on the streets and in shelters. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, there are more than 550,000 people who are homeless on any given night and far more over the course of a year. These numbers "will likely rise in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak," she says.

Shinn believes we must address key drivers of homelessness: a lack of affordable housing options; wages that have not kept pace with skyrocketing rent; and discriminatory housing practices. In her new book with Abt Associates researcher Jill Khadduri, "In the Midst of Plenty: Homelessness and What to Do About It" (Wiley-Blackwell 2020), she advocates for long-term subsidies that hold housing costs to 30 percent of income.

"Short term subsidies may be a cheaper and quicker solution, but when they run out, families often end up back in the cycle of homelessness," Shinn says. "Longer-term subsidies not only end homelessness but have radiating benefits for other aspects of family well-being."

The authors advocate for a massive expansion of the Housing Choice Voucher program, with deeper targeting to the neediest households; and robust enforcement of the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing mandate.

"Some people will need additional supports," Shinn says. "For people with serious mental illnesses, housing first programs that offer voluntary supportive services without requirements for sobriety or participation in treatment work well. But everyone needs housing."

Especially in times of economic uncertainty, funding and policy changes are needed. But there also must be a change of perception around homelessness in order to end it, Shinn believes.

"Homelessness should not be viewed as a permanent trait or condition. Like unemployment, it's a state that people pass through," she says. "Ultimately, we have the wealth and the knowledge to end homelessness; we need to find the political will. Homelessness is a choice—not a choice by people sleeping on the streets, but a choice by the rest of us to look the other way.

We must act on homelessness before COVID-19 winter

More information: In the Midst of Plenty: Homelessness and What To Do About It. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/In+the+Midst+of+Plenty%3A+Homelessness+and+What+To+Do+About+It-p-9781119