OPINION

Corruption Kills

By Ifeanyi Nsoforl

Nigerians should not be pushing against global COVID-19 vaccine inequity amid widespread looting of the national treasury. 

Credit: UNICEF/Nahom Tesfaye

ABUJA, May 24 2022 (IPS) - Nigeria’s accountant-general, the administrative head of the country’s treasury, has been arrested by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission for allegedly stealing 80 billion naira ($134 million). This is a staggering theft in a country that has an estimated poverty rate of 95 million (48% of the population) and some of the worst health indices in the world.

As a universal health coverage and global health equity advocate, I know that Nigeria’s health system would be stronger and work better by blocking these leakages and channeling the funds to provide universal health coverage for every Nigerian.

Indeed, the stealing of public funds denies millions of people healthcare, which comes with severe health consequences. These include citizens living with chronic debilitating illnesses, loss of productivity, worsening poverty and even death. In our country, about 58,000 women die during pregnancy and childbirth yearly; and 1 in 8 children do not live to witness their 5th birthday. Simply put, corruption is a matter of life and death.

These are five examples of how the missing 80 billion naira could improve the health of Nigerians if rechanneled.

First, 80 billion naira would fund President Muhammadu Buhari’s plan to provide health insurance for 83 million poor Nigerians, as part of his implementation of the new National Health Insurance Authority Act that he recently signed into law.

Further, the missing 80 billion naira is 114 times the 701 million naira budgeted for the defunct National Health Insurance Scheme in 2022. It is unsurprising that the Scheme did not achieve a national health insurance coverage of up to 5% for the past 18 years.

A mandatory health insurance program is a way to achieve universal health coverage for Nigerians because out-of-pocket spending at the point of healthcare pushes people into poverty. Isn’t it ironic that millions of Nigerians are pushed into poverty when they access healthcare and the accountant-general is alleged to have stolen 80 billion naira? This is a classic case of suffering in the midst of plenty.

Second, the stolen 80 billion naira can fund tertiary healthcare for millions of Nigerians who access care at teaching hospitals. Lagos University Teaching Hospital, University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, University of Ibadan Teaching Hospital, Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital and Jos University teaching Hospital collectively have a budget of 78 billion naira for 2022.

Teaching hospitals do not just provide tertiary healthcare. They also provide primary and secondary healthcare services. In addition, they train medical students and other health professionals. They are also training institutions for doctors specialising to become consultants.

Third, the stolen 80 billion naira is 13 times the 6 billion naira collectively budgeted for National Obstetric Fistula Centres at Abakaliki, Bauchi and Katsina states in 2022. The World Health Organization describes obstetric fistula as an abnormal opening between a woman’s genital tract and her urinary tract or rectum.

It is caused by long obstructed labor and affects more than 2 million young women globally. The abnormal opening leads to leakage of urine and/or faeces from the vagina. Obstetric fistulas destroy the dignity of women. Victims are ostracized, stigmatized and lose economic power. It said that you smell victims before you see them.

That is the huge burden that victims carry. In Nigeria, prevalence of obstetric fistula is 3.2 per 1000 births. There are 13,000 new cases yearly. A review of obstetric fistula in Nigeria showed that the backlog of cases could take 83 years to clear.

In contrast, the stolen 80 billion naira would shorten the time it takes to clear this backlog. I know from my experience as a grantmaker. In 2012, I led the community health initiatives at the TY Danjuma Foundation. A one-year grant of 11 million naira awarded to a grantee in Kano state, northwest Nigeria provided surgical repairs of obstetric fistulas; training of health workers on repair and care of patients; economic empowerment of patients; and advocacy to communities to discourage early marriage and encourage health-facility-based deliveries.

Fourth, the missing 80 billion naira if allocated to the National Primary health Care Development Agency would improve COVID-19 vaccines procurement, distribution and administration in Nigeria. Indeed, that amount is more than 3 times the 24 billion naira budgeted for the NPHCDA in 2022.

So far, Nigeria is mostly depending on the generosity of vaccines donated by rich countries such as the U.S. through the COVAX facility. This is not sustainable. Recent news out of South Africa reveals that Aspen Pharmacare could shut down production of Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine because African countries are not placing orders as expected.

At a cost of $7.50 per dose of Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, $134 million would buy 18 million doses to vaccinate Nigerians and help the country achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible. Nigerians should not be pushing against global COVID-19 vaccine inequity amid widespread looting of the national treasury.

Lastly, the stolen 80 billion naira is 1.5 times the amount budgeted for the 54-billion-naira Basic Health Care Provision Fund. According to the National Primary Health Care Development Agency, the fund is to improve access to primary health care by making provision for routine costs of running primary health centres, and ensure access to health care for all, particularly the poor, by contributing to national productivity. Eighty billion naira increases the number of poor and vulnerable Nigerians who could access healthcare through the Basic Health Care Provision Fund.

Sadly, while still trying to come to terms with the allegation against the accountant-general, there is more news of fraud in Nigeria. A former Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission was arrested for allegedly stealing 47 billion naira. Also, the only female to have served as the speaker of Nigeria’s federal House of Representatives was also arrested for 130 million naira fraud.

These thefts must stop, and the funds should be put where they are most needed: funding healthcare. Without health, we have nothing.

Former UN ambassador ‘optimistic’ WNBA star Brittney Griner ‘will come home’

BY OLAFIMIHAN OSHIN - 05/24/22 

Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner sits during the first half of Game 2 of basketball’s WNBA Finals against the Chicago Sky, Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2021, in Phoenix. Griner is easily the most prominent American citizen known to be jailed by a foreign government. Yet as a crucial hearing approaches next month, the case against her remains shrouded in mystery, with little clarity from the Russian prosecutors. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri, File)

Bill Richardson, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said that he is “optimistic” that detained WNBA star Brittney Griner “will come home” as calls for her release from Russia continue to grow.

During an appearance on HBO’s “Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel,” Richardson told host Bryant Gumbel that he is “optimistic” about Griner’s return back to U.S. soil, adding it will “happen soon”.

Sources told sports media outlet ESPN earlier this month that Richardson agreed to work on Griner’s case.

“Bottom line. You optimistic?” Gumbel asked Richardson on Tuesday’s episode of the program.

“I’m optimistic,” Richardson replied. “I am. Hopefully, it’ll happen soon, but it will happen. Brittney Griner will come home. It’s gonna happen.”

Richardson also told Gumbel that he sees the similarities in Griner’s case with that of Trevor Reed, a former U.S. Marine who was released from Russian detainment last month, saying Moscow will ask for something in return for Griner due to her being a “very high profile” figure.

“Well, yes. Both, the Russians held them, I believe, as bargaining chips. They want something in return. Usually another prisoner, a Russian, in the United States,” Richardson told Gumbel.

“I’m convinced the Russians are gonna ask for something in return, because Brittney Griner is very high profile,” Richardson added. “There’s a lot of attention to her. She’s a world figure. And the Russians are gonna want something in return.”

This comes as national advocacy group Black Feminist Future (BFF) announced on Monday plans to hold a demonstration outside of a WNBA game in an effort to call for Griner’s release.

Griner, whose case was classified as a “top priority” by the State Department, has been detained in Russia for the last three months after being accused by Moscow authorities of illegally having vape cartridges containing hashish oil with her at an airport. South Korea says North Korea launched at least three ballistic missilesOn The Money — Biden faces soft deadlines, hard choices with agenda

The seven-time all-star and Olympic gold medalist’s current detainment in the country was extended for another 30 days earlier this month.

Recently, Democratic House Reps. Shelia Jackson Lee (D-Texas), Collin Allred (D-Texas), and Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) introduced a resolution calling for the “immediate release” of Griner from Russian custody.


“She is a victim of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s desperation to rule the world, and unfortunately, her freedom is made more difficult by inconsistent Russian responses to our embassy personnel and a bad legal system in Russia,” Jackson Lee said in a statement.

Russia’s new Arctic research ship starts sea trials

The Severny Polyus' first real expedition is due to start in 2023.

By

 Atle Staalesen, The Independent Barents Observer

 -

May 24, 2022

The Severny Polyus is ready for sea trials. (Admiralty Yard via The Independent Barents Observer)

The 83-meter-long Russian Arctic research ship Severny Polyus (“North Pole”) officially started sea trials this week.

“There is no other vessel in the world like this one,” said Minister of Natural Resources Aleksandr Kozlov in the ceremony.

It has taken the Admiralty Yard in St. Petersburg about two years to build the vessel that by its constructors is described as a ‘platform.’

“While researchers in the Arctic expeditions that took place several decades ago had to spend most of their time fighting for survival, they can now devote most of their time directly to research,” says yard General Director Aleksandr Buzakov.

The Severny Polyus is a research vessel that will be operated by the Russian Meteorology Service Roshydromet. It is capable of undertaking geological, acoustic, geophysical and marine research under the harshest of Arctic conditions. Even in temperatures down to minus 50 degrees Celsius it can provide comfortable living and working conditions for researchers and crew, according to the Admiralty Yard.

On board will be 15 labs where researchers can work year-round.

In the course of fall 2022, the vessel is due to set out for a minor expedition for testing of key equipment.

The first real expedition will start in 2023 when the Severny Polyus will sail into Arctic waters for a two-year expedition. The ship is designed to be able to drift uninterruptedly with the Arctic currents for two years.

“The ice platform is our country’s contribution to the development of the Arctic,” Minister Kozlov said in a comment early 2022.

The building of the vessel is seen also as a contribution to the current Russian presidency of the Arctic Council, and international researchers are expected to be invited to the maiden tour.

The Severny Polyus platform will replace Russia’s Arctic expeditions based on ice floes organised since the 1930s. The quickly vanishing Arctic sea-ice has made it increasingly hard to organise the expeditions and last real ice station, the “North Pole-40”, was held in the winter of 2012.

ITUC Welcomes Conclusions Of Global Conference On The Elimination Of Child Labour

Wednesday, 25 May 2022
Press Release: ITUC

The ITUC has welcomed the conclusions of the 5th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour, but called on governments to redouble their efforts to eliminate the scourge of child labour.

The Conference, held in Durban, South Africa, the 15 to 20 May, adopted a resolution known as the “Durban Call to Action” that includes calls to:

• make decent work a reality for adults and young people above the minimum age for work by accelerating multi-stakeholder efforts to eliminate child labour, with priority given to the worst forms of child labour;
• end child labour in agriculture;
• strengthen the prevention and elimination of child labour, including its worst forms such as forced labour, modern slavery and trafficking in persons, and the protection of survivors through data-driven and survivor-informed policy responses;
• realise children’s right to education and ensure universal access to free, compulsory, quality, equitable and inclusive education and training;
• achieve universal access to social protection; and
• increase financing and international cooperation for the elimination of child labour and forced labour.

ITUC General Secretary Sharan Burrow said: “The call to action comes against a background of rising child labour cases, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, with around 160 million children trapped in child labour according to global estimates.

“We must remember that SDG goal 8.7 seeks to eliminate child labour by 2025 and forced labour by 2030. But look at the time already? We call on governments to implement the priorities set out in the Durban Call to Action and we want social partners, civil society organisations, development agencies and financers to work together to realise goal 8.7.

“It is great that all ILO members states and their social partners have ratified Convention 182 on the worst forms of child labour, and other child labour conventions are being progressively ratified. The Minimum Age Convention 138 must also be universally ratified. But ratification alone does not address the scourge of child labour.

“It is action, the compliance measures that governments put in place, that will achieve 8.7. These measures must be complemented by investment in jobs, social protection, the care economy, education. We call on social partners to closely monitor their governments and to ensure they are implementing the steps set out in Durban.”

The Durban conference was attended by delegates from governments, trade unions, employers’ organisations, civil society organisations, UN agencies and, for the first time, child delegates.

Digital tech can reduce emissions by up to 20% in high-emitting industries: WEF

DAVOS, 24th May, 2022 (WAM) -- Digital technologies can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 20% by 2050 in the three highest-emitting sectors: energy, mobility and materials. As businesses and governments respond to global calls for action to tackle climate change, significant efforts must be put in place to achieve net zero.

These new estimates are the result of a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and Accenture. However, a large gap remains between commitments and action. Estimates of current commitments indicate a projected emissions reduction of merely 7.5% when a 55% reduction is needed. Closing this gap will require high-emitting sectors to rethink efficiency, circularity and sustainability.

The results were released during the WEF Annual Meeting 2022 - the focal point for leaders to accelerate the partnerships needed to tackle global challenges and shape a more sustainable and inclusive future. Convening under the theme, History at a Turning Point: Government Policies and Business Strategies, the Annual Meeting 2022 and its 450 sessions bring together global leaders from business, government and civil society.

Energy, materials and mobility constitute the highest emission sectors, contributing 43%, 26% and 24% respectively of total emissions in 2020. These industries can use four digital technologies to decarbonize their operations and value chains: foundational technologies such as big data analytics; decision-making technologies such as artificial intelligence/machine learning and digital twins; enabling technologies such as cloud, 5G, blockchain and augmented reality; and sensing and control technologies such as internet of things, drones and automation.

According to the estimates, digital solutions can reduce emissions by up to 8% in the energy sector by enhancing carbon-intensive processes, improving energy efficiency in buildings, and deploying and managing renewable energy.

In the materials sector, digital solutions can improve mining and upstream production and enhance efficiency and circularity of materials, reducing up to 7% of GHG emissions by 2050. The mobility sector can reduce emissions by up to 5% by supporting the transition from fossil fuel combustion to green molecules, improving supply chain efficiencies and optimizing travel routes.

"Digital technologies and business models are readily available levers for companies to accelerate their climate and energy transitions. Technology can bring transparency, efficiency and circularity to business processes and value chains. Shared learning and action by industry leaders and climate coalitions will be key to realizing the benefits of technology at scale while keeping its carbon footprint low," said Manju George, Head of Platform Strategy, Digital Economy, World Economic Forum.

The Forum is curating an inventory of lighthouse examples, companies that are leading the way in implementing digital technologies to reduce their carbon footprint and deliver economic growth to inspire more adoption and collaboration.

"The combination of digital and sustainability is already creating significant value across industries but many companies are still seeking the practical, strategic and impactful actions they must take now to realize the full impact of their ambitions and commitments," said Kathleen O'Reilly, Global Lead, Accenture Strategy. "While every digital transformation will look different, the use of real-time data to enable sustainable decision-making, new-skilling opportunities for workforces to scale digital, and collaboration both within the organization and across the value chain will be core to the success of all."

In each sector, digital technologies must be deployed together with new climate technologies and business models to deliver net zero. In addition, efforts to reduce emissions from the digital technologies themselves must continue, keeping their net impact on the planet overwhelmingly positive.

WAM/Tariq alfaham/Hatem Mohamed

War pushes Yemen’s disabled population over the 4.8 million mark


A Handicap International official authored a report with the latest on the disabled’s fate in a country of 30 million. In 2014, before the Yemen conflict broke out, fewer than three million people lived with disabilities. Strikes, mines, and stray bullets are the main causes. The “collapse of the health system " and the loss of services have aggravated the crisis.


Aden (AsiaNews) – Advocacy groups are warning that the number of people with disabilities in Yemen has “skyrocketed” after seven years of civil war, a conflict that continues to produce victims, virtually forgotten by the international community

The latest warning comes from Yasmine Daelman, Advocacy and Humanitarian Policy Advisor for the Yemen Mission at Handicap International, who recently authored a report for the NGO.

In it she notes that mutilated and disabled people are always "the first to be forgotten," forced to survive in extreme conditions.

According to UN estimates, around 4.8 million people suffer from at least one disability in Yemen out of a population of 30 million, up from around three million before the war – though it is impossible to verify the number because of a lack of official data.

“The rate of disabilities has skyrocketed since the beginning of the conflict,” Daelman told AFP, in particular due to the extensive use of explosive weapons in strikes, mines and stray bullets in populated areas, leading to large numbers of amputations.

Psychological traumas and mental health problems have also greatly increased, the report notes. With the “complete collapse of the health system,” people with disabilities suffer the most since access to hospitals and health services is thus severely limited.

Sometimes the disabled have to travel up to three days, on dangerous roads, to obtain basic healthcare. “It is quite shocking to see how they face very different challenges,” Daelman explained, citing the example of deaf people who fear leaving their homes since they cannot hear attacks or explosions.

Yemen plunged into civil war in 2014, which morphed into a regional conflict in March 2015 when Saudi Arabia and a coalition of Arab countries intervened.

So far, almost 400,000 people have died, including 10,000 children, in what the United Nations deems the “worst humanitarian crisis in the world,” made more “devastating” by the COVID-19 outbreak.

At present, hunger haunts millions of people with children likely suffering the consequences for decades. Included are the more than three million internally displaced people who live in conditions of extreme poverty, hunger and epidemics of various kinds, not the least cholera.

Against the tragic backdrop, a two-month truce agreed in April by the warring parties represents the first countrywide ceasefire since 2016. For the United Nations, this provides some hope.

Many now would like to see it extended to give the population some breathing space to cope with the ongoing humanitarian, economic and social catastrophe.

Monkeying Around with the People?

by Allen Forrest / May 24th, 2022

Facebook

TwitterRedditEmail

Allen Forrest is a writer, painter, graphic artist and activist. He has created covers and illustrations for literary publications and books, is the winner of the Leslie Jacoby Honor for Art at San Jose State University's Reed Magazine for 2015, and his Bel Red landscape paintings are part of the Bellevue College Foundation's permanent art collection in Bellevue, WA. He lives in Vancouver, BC, Canada. Read other articles by Allen, or visit Allen's website.

India: Birds Drop Out of the Sky, People Die

by Robert Hunziker / May 24th, 2022

In case you have lingering doubts about the reality of human-caused global warming, hop on an airplane to parts of India or Pakistan and spend a few days. And, as long as you’re there, maybe be a good citizen and pick up a few of the dehydrated birds that drop out of the sky. Then, use the syringe you brought along to feed it some water before it dies in your hands.

And, maybe do the same for some of the people sprawled out on the roadside before they die right before your eyes. After all, people are already dying from the humid heat. Maybe you could help them survive and while at it maybe bring along that friend who’s a climate denier to assist in saving some lives. It’s good for their soul to open his or her eyes to reality.

According to a recent Business Insider article: “Birds Are Falling From the Sky in India as a Record Heatwave Dries up Water Sources”, May 14th, 2022. And, it’s not just a few random instances: “Vets in an animal hospital in Ahmedabad said they had treated thousands of birds in recent weeks.”.¹

According to Yale Climate Connections: “The nearly ‘unsurvivable’ heat is increasingly as the result of human-caused climate change.”

Here’s a snippet from the Yale Climate Connections article entitled “India and Pakistan’s Brutal Heat Wave Poised to Resurge: Inferno-like temperatures of up to 50 degrees Celsius (122°F)”. The heat, when combined with high levels of humidity – especially near the coast and along the Indus River Valley – will produce dangerously high levels of heat stress that will approach or exceed the limit of survivability for people outdoors for an extended period.”

According to the prestigious UK Met Office: “The blistering heat wave in northwest India and Pakistan was made over 100 times more likely because of human-caused climate change.”²

The extraordinary blistering heat has prompted Umair Haque, a British economist (former blogger for the Harvard Business Review, but he attended University of Oxford, London Business School, and McGill University) to compose a special article about the scenario entitled: “The Age of Extinction Is Here — Some of Us Just Don’t Know It Yet”, published in Eudaimonia and Co, May 2022 in which he describes a world that has “already crossed the threshold of survivability.”

Umair has friends in the Indian Subcontinent. So, he hears first hand what’s happening without the filter of a news organization. Here’s one quote: “The heatwave there is pushing the boundaries of survivability. My other sister says that in the old, beautiful city of artists and poets, eagles are falling dead from the sky. They are just dropping dead and landing on houses, monuments, and shops. They can’t fly anymore.”

Here’s some more reporting directly from the streets, as related by Umair: “The streets, she says, are lined with dead things. Dogs. Cats. Cows. Animals of all kinds are just there, dead. They’ve perished in the killing heat. They can’t survive.”

People spend all day in canals and rivers and lakes. Some people in the streets are passed out and at the edge of a life or death scenario. He suggests the death count will not be known for some time and many probably won’t be counted.

Here’s an interesting take from Umair’s perspective: “You see, my Western friends read stories like this, and then they go back to obsessing over the Kardashians or Wonder Woman or Johnny Depp or Batman. They don’t understand yet. Because this is beyond the limits of what Homo sapiens can really comprehend, the Event. That world is coming for them, too.”

He claims: “We are at the threshold of the Cataclysm. Some of us are now crossing over to the other side, of a different planet, one that’s going to become unlivable. This isn’t ‘going to happen’ or ‘might happen,’ it is actually happening now.”

Here’s one more quote: “At 50 degrees, which is where the Subcontinent is now, life dies off. The birds fall from the sky. The streets become mass graves. People flee and try to just survive. Energy grids begin to break. Economies grind to a halt.”

Umair claims civilization collapses somewhere between 50 -60 degrees Celsius. “Nothing works after that point.” Animals die and systems shut down, economics crater, inflation skyrockets, people grow poorer, fascism erupts as a consequence. People become frightened and turn to fundamentalist religion or authoritarian rule to “give them answers.” The regular ole economics and politics don’t work any longer. Sound familiar?

Death by humid heat in India equates to the tolling of bells, slowly, repeatedly, as black pennants flutter along the distant horizon. Another one has died and another, and one more, and another and another, as the monotonous tolling becomes an atrocious irritation.

Postscript: It’s in every bird falling from the sky, every animal dropping dead from the heat, every democracy being shredded by lunatics, in all the deaths we will never count. Our systems — all of them — economic, social, political — are beginning to fail. (Umair Haque)

1. Ibid. []
2. “Climate Change Has Made India’s Heat Wave 100 Times More Likely, UK Weather Service Says”, CNBC, May 18, 2022. [Facebook
   Reddit

Robert Hunziker (MA, economic history, DePaul University) is a freelance writer and environmental journalist whose articles have been translated into foreign languages and appeared in over 50 journals, magazines, and sites worldwide. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.com. Read other articles by Robert.

India: Birds Are Falling From the Sky Amid Record Heatwave

https://www.businessinsider.com/india-birds-fall-from-sky-india-amid-record-122f-heatwave-2022-5

May 14, 2022 ... Dehydrated birds are falling from the sky in India as a record heatwave dries up water sources. · In India's Gujarat state dozens of high flying .....

‘Almost nobody is happy with Putin’

Meduza’s sources say a new wave of pessimism in the Kremlin has Russia’s hawks demanding more brutality in Ukraine while others scout for presidential successors

May 24, 2022
Source: Meduza

As of today, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been underway for exactly three months. Throughout Moscow’s “special military operation,” representatives of the Russian elite have repeatedly changed their positions on the war in Ukraine and the crisis at home. Moderate optimism replaced what was initially extreme pessimism, only to be ousted by a wave of moderate pessimism. Sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza that these moods have shifted again, as more elites express dissatisfaction with Vladimir Putin directly. Frustration with the president, moreover, is rising among both supporters and opponents of the invasion.

In the three months since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the general mood among the elites in Moscow has flipped more than once. In early March, insiders told Meduza that President Putin’s decision to go to war horrified most Kremlin and ministerial officials, who feared that Western sanctions would ruin their careers and maybe even their lives. Shortly thereafter, however, a “patriotic surge” took hold. By April, several prominent figures were calling publicly to fight “to the bitter end.”

Now, three months into the war, pessimism is staging a comeback. “It won’t be possible to live like before. Any talk of development is out the window. But life goes on. There are gray imports. There’s trade with China and India,” said a source close to the prime minister’s cabinet.

At the same time, officials in the Kremlin still see no realistic scenario in which President Putin could end the hostilities in Ukraine and retain his high approval rating in Russia. As Meduza reported previously, the administration’s domestic policy team has been brainstorming strategies to “withdraw with dignity” since just a few weeks into the invasion, but officials have yet to come up with anything.
Unhappiness on all sides

“There’s probably almost nobody who’s happy with Putin. Businesspeople and many cabinet members are unhappy that the president started this war without thinking through the scale of the sanctions. Normal life under these sanctions is impossible. The ‘hawks’ are mad about the pace of the ‘special operation’; they think more decisive action is possible.”

This is how a source close to the Kremlin described the mood among Russian elites. Another two sources with knowledge of the Putin administration’s operations confirmed this analysis, as did two more individuals with ties to the prime minister’s cabinet.

Sources close to the Kremlin said the “hawkish” position (most popular among Russia’s security elites) is simple: “They figure, since we’re entangled there already, there’s no going soft now. We need to go even harder.” This would entail a broad mobilization of reservists, and “playing to win,” ideally by capturing Kyiv itself.

The Kremlin, however, isn’t ready to declare a full mobilization. In early April, citing the results of closed sociological studies, sources with knowledge of the Putin administration’s domestic policy work told Meduza that even the Russians who say they support the “special operation” in Ukraine are reluctant either to volunteer for the fight or to send their own relatives to the frontlines.

At the same time, Russia’s major businesspeople and most of the “civilian” state officials are also unhappy with the president’s actions and criticize him for failing to take real steps toward peace with Ukraine. Meanwhile, economic difficulties mount by the day.

“The problems are already visible, and they’ll be raining down from all sides by the middle of the summer: transportation, medicine, even agriculture. There was just nobody thinking about the scale [of the sanctions],” a source close to the government told Meduza, adding that no one in the Kremlin calculated the consequences of European countries completely boycotting Russian oil and gas. While such a boycott is still being discussed in the EU, Meduza’s sources say the president and his more “militant” advisers nevertheless dismiss the prospect as an empty threat by the West.

Vladimir Putin simply doesn’t want to think about the economic difficulties that are obvious to most officials, and he’s especially unwilling to link these problems to the war in Ukraine, two sources with ties to the Kremlin told Meduza.

The president has expressed this perspective publicly, as well. For example, when Anton Alikhanov met with Putin on May 20, the Kaliningrad governor described the decline in the region’s construction industry, saying, “After the start of the special military operation, our logistics links were temporarily disrupted. We still managed to buy a lot abroad, and we’ve been focused on transit through neighboring states’ territories. It took us some time to adapt the supply chain to the new realities, but it’s done now.”

In response, Putin repeatedly told the governor not to blame the region’s supply problems on the war: “There’s no need in this case to link this to our special military operation. You had a recession back in 2020 and 2021, too, and there was a noticeable decline in construction. So, the military operation in the Donbas has absolutely nothing to do with this.”

Meduza’s sources with ties to the Kremlin and the federal government say talk about “the future after Putin” is increasingly common among Russia’s elites. “It’s not that they want to overthrow Putin right now, or that they’re plotting a conspiracy, but there’s an understanding (or a wish) that he won’t be governing the state maybe in the foreseeable future,” explained one individual. “The president screwed up, but he might still fix everything later, coming to some agreement [with Ukraine and the West],” added another source, admitting that some Kremlin officials are quietly discussing Putin’s potential successors. (The list supposedly includes Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, National Security Council Deputy Chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev, and First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko.)

Kiriyenko is reportedly in regular contact with Putin about the economy and the Donbas (where the president recently made him the administration’s point man). Meduza’s sources offer conflicting information, however, about Kiriyenko’s own plans: some say he aspires at least to the office of prime minister, while others guess that his current activity is intended to demonstrate his effectiveness inside the Kremlin.

Among Meduza’s sources, the consensus view is that Kiriyenko, like National Guard director Viktor Zolotov, for example, belongs to Putin’s “inner circle.” “[This group] now includes those participating in the operation — the ones leading the troops and dealing with the Donbas. The president is at war. These are the people who can cross the ‘red line,’ meaning they can wake the president with a phone call,” said one source.

Even when discussing Kiriyenko and Putin’s other hypothetical successors, Meduza’s sources said Russia’s elites recognize that only a major health issue could drive the president from office. As a result, dissatisfaction among senior officials amounts to little but idle conversations in private. As one source with ties to the government put it: “People are disgusted, but they’re still at their jobs, helping to put the country on a war footing.”

For instance, the Kremlin hasn’t abandoned the idea of annexing more of Ukraine by staging referendums in the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” and in the Kherson region, which Russian troops currently occupy. The situation at the frontlines will determine when these plebiscites can go ahead. Currently, the soonest voting could realistically take place is on September 11, when Russia holds its own local and regional elections. Meduza’s sources say Georgia’s breakaway Republic of South Ossetia might synchronize its own referendum on joining Russia for September, as well. Also, South Ossetian officials have announced a vote on July 17, but two sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza that the plebiscite’s date might be moved. (Anatoly Bibilov, South Ossetia’s former president who recently lost a reelection bid, is the one who set the July 17 date.)

The same sources didn’t rule out that Belarus might also hold a September plebiscite on the long-discussed question of “merging” with Russia. “But that depends on steamrolling [Belarusian President Alexander] Lukashenko, who resists this scenario in every way possible,” explained one individual.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to Meduza’s questions for this article.


Text by Andrey Pertsev

Translation by Kevin Rothrock

The Philippines unleashed 'death squads' on suspected drug users. 

Will Bongbong Marcos end the war?

By East Asia correspondent Bill Birtles and Mitch Woolnough in Manila

The war on drugs in the Philippines has left thousands dead.

 (Reuters: Erik De Castro)

In the final days of his wild and bloody presidency, Rodrigo Duterte was wistful about a few things he had yet to achieve for the Philippines.

"Before I leave, let's finish three or five drug lords," he said.

"I want to kill them. I do not want them alive."

From the moment he was sworn into power in 2016, Mr Duterte declared that Filipinos had one common enemy: the drug trade.

Claiming that there were 3 million addicts in need of "slaughter", he said he would offer bounties to police for killing suspected users and dealers.

A bloodbath ensued.

Estimates vary, but the Philippines government says more than 6,000 people have been killed in police anti-drug operations over the past six years, and there have been more than 300,000 arrests.

Some human rights groups believe the death toll is closer to 30,000 when including anti-drug deaths at the hands of vigilantes.

But the shock-and-awe enforcement methods have failed to severely reduce the nation's drug trade, leaving even passionate supporters of the outgoing the President to call for a more compassionate approach.

Now, his successor, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr, is under pressure to overhaul the brutal tactics.

Assassins, bounties and dead children

While Mr Duterte often portrayed the Philippines as a near "narco-state" awash with methamphetamines, the available data suggested a more complex situation.

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime claimed in 2007 that the Philippines had the highest prevalence of meth use in the world.

But just a few years later, the same office said the nation had a low prevalence rate of drug users compared to the global average.

Critics say Rodrigo Duterte used flawed and exaggerated data to support his claim that the Philippines was becoming a "narco state".

(AP: Bullit Marquez)

But Mr Duterte's war on drugs was still a broadly popular campaign, which was initiated after his election win in 2016 and saw mass arrests, police shootings and killings of alleged drug dealers and users.

He established a national task force to target drug use and the gang-related trade, encouraged shootings in multiple public speeches, and even called for the killing of critics of his violent campaign.

Human rights groups believe the shootings not attributed to police officers were often carried out by vigilante assassins linked to law enforcement, so called "death squads".

Dozens of children and teenagers were killed, as were more than a dozen mayors and other public officials.

Critics say many victims were not even related to the drug trade.

Due to its location and long coastline, the Philippines has been a major hub for drug traffickers.

 (Reuters: Romeo Ranoco)

A separate campaign against an alleged Communist insurgency has simultaneously seen the police and the military facing accusations of extra judicial killings.

Last year the International Criminal Court (ICC) was set to investigate some of the anti-drug killings, including allegations that police fabricated evidence to suggest the shootings were in self-defence.

But the ICC backed off when Mr Duterte's Department of Justice pledged to open its own investigation into the cases.
The poor were often in the crosshairs of Duterte's war

While the campaign peaked in the initial years of the Duterte government, there were still dozens of deaths linked to the anti-drugs effort in 2021, according to data from US-based research organisation ACLED.

And while Mr Duterte vowed to target drug lords in his war, it was overwhelmingly the poor who were killed and jailed.

Bilog spent more than two years in jail for drug dealing, but continued offending when he was released. (ABC News: Mitch Woolnough )

"In order to feed your family, you need to sell drugs," said Bilog, a methamphetamine dealer in Masambong.

Bilog's neighbourhood is a drug war hotspot in Quezon city — part of Manila's capital region.

The 49-year-old was jailed for more than two years during Mr Duterte's crackdown.

But as soon as he was released, he went back to dealing.

He lives in a humid one-room shack he shares with two teenage sons. Both boys are also meth dealers.

"It's our basic source of income so we'll keep doing it in spite of what happened," he said.

"The drug war devastated my family and every family in the Philippines that sells drugs."

Bilog and his sons deal meth. He says it is the only way they can make ends meet. 

(ABC News: Mitch Woolnough )

His two years of incarceration plunged his family even further into poverty, but he told the ABC he was now finding it easier than ever to make money because he had a reliable supplier.

"The dealers who were jailed in the crackdown of course returned to selling after they got out of prison," he said.

One social justice campaigner told the ABC there were other ways for those at the bottom to earn an income but drug dealing was seen as "easy money".

Nonetheless, advocates for victims of the drug war say it is the persistent nature of the illicit drug trade among the country's poor that should prompt the incoming administration of Bongbong Marcos to rethink it.
Giving the dead a proper burial

Father Flavie Villanuevahei was once upon a time in the throes of drug addiction.

Father Flavie Villanueva helps organise proper farewells for those killed in the drug war. (ABC News: Mitch Woolnough )

These days he helps the families of drug-war victims who were buried in temporary graves to have a proper cremation.

Some of the dead may have been small-time dealers, but the families of others say they weren't involved in drugs at all.

"What Mr Duterte has left us with is a legacy of blood and an enterprise of killing," he said.

He fears the drug war will continue even after Mr Duterte leaves office.

"The problem with Duterte's administration is that instead of approaching it as a medical and psychological issue, they brought in fear and used law and order as the solution," he said.

Lourdes, who lost her husband in the drug war, wants the incoming government to "no longer kill innocent and helpless victims". 

(ABC News: Mitch Woolnough )

Among the relatives at Father Flavie's church is Lourdes De Juant.

Her husband was killed in the early years of the anti-drugs campaign.

"My husband's ambition was that some day our children will finish school," she said through tears.

"All I wish now is that our new president will give us justice and that they no longer kill innocent and helpless victims."

Families who lost loved ones in the drug war are able to give them a proper Catholic funeral, thanks to Father Flavie Villanueva.

 (ABC News: Mitch Woolnough )

Another woman attending a ceremony in Quezon City had two sons shot dead. She is now helping to look after 12 grandchildren.

"It's mainly the family breadwinners — the sons and husbands — who have been targeted," Father Flavie said.
As Duterte steps down, his daughter rises

During his presidential campaign, Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr promised to maintain Mr Duterte's anti-drugs effort, but to "do it with love".

He has pledged more funding for rehabilitation programs and to shift the enforcement side of the campaign towards the big fish, rather than those at the bottom.

Supporters of the incoming president tend to defend the anti-drugs campaign, even if they think it needs an overhaul.

Vince Avena says the crackdown has been necessary. (ABC News: Mitch Woolnough )

"Duterte did the tough part to shake the country, to shake the people, to wake them up," said Vince Avena, a Manila-based political commentator who supported the Marcos campaign.

And the appointment of Mr Duterte's daughter Sara as the new vice-president to Bongbong Marcos underscores the "tough on crime" continuity the new government is seeking.

"I can only hope the new administration doesn't just look at [the drug issue] from a criminal perspective," Gwen Pimental Gana, the country's outgoing human rights commissioner, said.

"The drug war should be recalibrated to recognise the multidimensional nature of drug dependence in the country."

Aside from a change in tactics, she's hoping victims of extrajudicial killings get justice.

Sara Duterte, the daughter of the outgoing the President, will be the country's new deputy leader. (AP: Aaron Favila)

"The perpetrators need to be held accountable," she said.

The pressure of a potential International Criminal Court investigation appears to have prompted the Mr Duterte's government to review dozens of cases alleging unjustified shootings by police.

The Department of Justice has already recommended prosecutions against 154 police officers, stemming from a review of 52 cases last year.

It was a rare admission of misconduct from the government. And authorities have pledged to review thousands more police operations that involved shootings.

But it is a long wait for answers and justice for the families of those killed.

And without a change in the overall culture of the anti-drugs policy, critics fear there will be many more deaths.

Some of those killed during the drug war were previously buried in temporary graves. (ABC News: Mitch Woolnough )