Trump reportedly okayed assassinating Soleimani 7 months ago

IN A PETULANT MOMENT HE HAD OVER IMPEACHMENT

WAS ALL THE EXCUSE HE NEEDED TO USE HIS PRE SIGNED

APPROVAL

SEVEN MONTHS IS NOT IMMINENT

 IT'S PRE PLANNING ASSASSINATION 

Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Gen. Qassem Soleimani's killing was reportedly in the works since June.

As other sources have reported, President Trump had been given several options for acting against Iran, ranging from the relatively delicate to the most extreme. Killing Soleimani was on the latter end of that spectrum, but Trump still went with it — provided an American was killed first, five current and former senior officials tell NBC News.

The Soleimani decision reportedly started back in June, when Iran shot down a U.S. drone over the Strait of Hormuz. John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser at the time, pushed for the harsh response of killing Soleimani, as did Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, officials said. Trump turned them down, but did say "that's only on the table if they hit Americans," a person briefed on the discussion told NBC News. That option became valid when an Iranian proxy attack killed a U.S. contractor*** and wounded U.S. service members.

This report is also backed up by a comment from Vice President Mike Pence at a Trump rally last week. "When one American life was lost at the hands of Iranian-backed militias just a few short weeks ago, President Trump launched the first air strikes against Iranian-backed militias in 10 years," Pence said to explain the rationale behind the Soleimani strike. 

Kathryn Krawczyk

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***DON'T CALL THEM CONTRACTORS THEY ARE MERCENARIES NOT BOUND BY THE REGULATIONS OF WAR OR CONFLICT

THE ATTACK WAS IN PUBLIC ON A PUBLIC HIGHWAY GOING TO A PUBLIC AIRPORT IN A FOREIGN COUNTRY NOT IRAN SO THIS WAS AN ACT OF WAR

BY PLANNED ASSASSINATION 

Does Iran Have Secret Armed Dolphin Assassins?

THE USA, RUSSIA AND ISRAEL DO

Andrew Daniels,Popular Mechanics•January 13, 2020

Photo credit: Ingo Menhard / EyeEm - Getty Images
From Popular Mechanics


In 2000, Iran purchased a fleet of killer dolphins from the Soviet Navy.


Twenty years later, we don’t know whatever happened to the mammals. But if they’re still alive, could Iran potentially use them for warfare against the U.S.?


The U.S. invented the concept of military dolphins in 1960. Today, the Navy trains about 30 dolphins and 30 sea lions at Naval Base Point Loma, San Diego to track sea mines.

As the U.S. military prepares to deal with the fallout from the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani earlier this month, we can expect Iran and Iranian-backed militias to retaliate in any number of ways, from traditional missile strikes to cyber attacks on our oil and gas facilities, banks, electrical grids, and more. But we might not want to count out the possibility of the country employing its fleet of killer Communist dolphins, which may or may not still exist.

Let’s rewind 20 years ago to the spring of 2000, when a Russian man named Boris Zhurid made a painful, fateful sale.

For years, Zhurid had been training a pack of dolphins to kill for the Soviet Navy, according to the BBC. He and other experts taught the mammals to target enemy combat swimmers and divers with harpoons strapped to their backs, capture them, and carry mines to enemy ships in suicide attacks. (The dolphins could tell the difference between Soviet and foreign subs by how their propellers sounded.)
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But when funding for that project ran out—and the Soviet dolphin program transferred to the Ukrainian Navy—Zhurid brought his animals to a private dolphinarium on the Crimean Peninsula, where they performed for tourists. Eventually, however, Zhurid couldn’t afford to feed the dolphins anymore.

“I cannot bare to see my animals starve,” the trainer told the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda. “We’re out of medicine, which costs thousands of dollars, and have no more fish or food supplements.”

So Zhurid bit the bullet and sold his beloved dolphins—along with walruses, sea lions, seals, and a white beluga whale—to a custom-built oceanarium in Iran, where, the BBC reported, the trainer would be “continuing his scientific research.” Zhurid didn’t say what he and his aquatic mercenaries would do in their new home, but he did tell Komsomolskaya Pravda that he was “prepared to go to Allah, or even to the devil, as long as my animals will be OK there.”

We don’t know what ever happened to the dolphins in the Persian Gulf since that March 2000 sale. Dolphins do have a lifespan of 50 years or more, as Blake Stilwell of Military points out, so the original assassins could still very much be alive. Zhurid “could also have trained more killer dolphins for use against Western shipping,” Stilwell speculates.

If Iran is indeed relying on the mammals for reconnaissance, the country isn’t alone. Russia seized control of its dormant military dolphin program in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. In 2016, the Russian Defense Ministry was actively scouting dolphins “with perfect teeth,” while last year, Norwegian fishermen spotted a whale wearing a harness from St. Petersburg, suggesting the Russian Navy was recruiting belugas for undersea warfare.

Of course, the U.S. invented the concept of military dolphins. In 1960, the U.S. Navy launched the Marine Mammal Program to research dolphins’ and beluga whales’ underwater sonar capabilities and see what tips the branch could take from the speedy swimmers and divers when designing its vessels. The Navy also trained dolphins, sea lions, and belugas to transport gear to divers, track and retrieve lost objects, and do some underwater spying with special mouth cameras—including during the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars.

After the Cold War, the Navy downsized and ultimately declassified the Marine Mammal Program. Today, the Navy trains about 30 dolphins and 30 sea lions at Naval Base Point Loma, San Diego to track sea mines and mark them for disposal. (Dolphins can search an area for mines much faster than humans.) The animals are part of the Navy’s Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Pacific. But could our super dolphin soldiers soon have a new mission?

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Australian prime minister's approval rating goes up in flames

By Sonali Paul, Reuters•January 12, 2020



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Australian prime minister's approval rating goes up in flames
An Australian Army combat engineer from the 5th Engineer Regiment utilises a JD-450 Bulldozer to spread out burnt woodchip at the Eden Woodchip Mill in southern New South Wales

 By Sonali Paul

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Public support for Prime Minister Scott Morrison has slumped to its lowest levels amid widespread anger over his government's handling of Australia's bushfire crisis, according to a survey released by Newspoll on Monday.

At least 28 people have been killed in the fires that have destroyed 2,000 homes, and razed 11.2 million hectares (27.7 million acres), nearly half the area of the United Kingdom

Morrison has come under attack for being slow to respond to the crisis, even taking a family holiday to Hawaii while fires were burning. He acknowledged during a television interview on Sunday that he had made some mistakes.

"We have heard the message loud and clear from the Australian people," Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said on Monday, when asked about the poll result as he announced a A$50 million ($34.56 million) wildlife protection fund.

"They want to see a Federal Government adopt a very direct response to these natural and national disasters," Frydenberg said.

The Newspoll survey showed Morrison's approval rating dropped 8% since the last poll on Dec 8 to stand at 37%, scoring lower than opposition Labor leader Anthony Albanese.


It is Morrison's worst showing in the poll since he took over leadership of the ruling Liberal Party in August 2018 when a backbench uprising ousted former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

No margin of error was provided for the poll, which surveyed 1,505 people from Wednesday to Saturday, although it was about 2.5% points in previous Newspolls.

The poll was taken after Morrison announced a A$2 billion bushfire recovery fund and called out 3,000 army reservists to back up state emergency workers - responses that were viewed as belated.

Morrison said on Sunday he would take a proposal to Cabinet to hold a Royal Commission national inquiry into the bushfires, including examining the response to the crisis, the role and powers of the federal government and the impact of climate change.

After weeks of raging fires whipped up by erratic winds and temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), conditions eased over the weekend with showers forecast for New South Wales (NSW), the worst hit state, over the next few days.

"If this BOM (Bureau of Meteorology) rainfall forecast comes to fruition then this will be all of our Christmas, birthday, engagement, anniversary, wedding and graduation presents rolled into one. Fingers crossed," the NSW Rural Fire Service said on Twitter.

Here are key events in the crisis:

-Australia's pristine 'AAA' sovereign rating is not at "immediate risk" from the fiscal and economic impact of bushfires raging across the country's east coast, S&P said on Monday.

-The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said on Monday bushfire victims can submit damaged banknote claims to redeem their lost money.

-The Australian government committed A$50 million to an emergency wildlife recovery program on Monday, calling the bushfires crisis engulfing the country "an ecological disaster" that threatens several species, including koalas and rock wallabies.

-German engineering giant Siemens said it would fulfill its contract to provide signaling for a rail line to a controversial new coal mine being built by India's Adani Group in Australia's outback, drawing criticism from green groups on Monday.

-Frydenberg announced A$50 million in funding on Monday for protecting wildlife and restoring damaged habitat, with a focus on threatened species, like koalas, with heartbreaking images of rescues of burned animals having gone viral around the world.

-Since October, thousands of Australians have been subjected to repeat evacuations as huge and unpredictable fires scorched more than 11.2 million hectares (27.7 million acres), an area nearly half the size of the United Kingdom.

-Across New South Wales, 111 fires were still burning late on Sunday, 40 of them not yet contained, but none at emergency level.

-A number of fires burning in the Snowy Mountains region in New South Wales and into Victoria have merged across more than 600,000 hectares (1.5 million acres) of land. They do not pose a threat, authorities say, despite being in an area hard to reach.

-The government said on Sunday it would provide A$76 million ($52 million) for mental health counseling and healthcare consultations to firefighters, emergency workers, individuals and communities.

-Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services said on Sunday an out-of-control and unpredictable fire that is moving slowly in the state's south, poses a possible threat to lives and homes in the area.

-South Australia said on Sunday that more than 32,000 livestock animals, mostly sheep, had died in recent fires on Kangaroo Island, while fire services are working to strengthen containment lines ahead of expected worsening weather conditions on Monday.

-Thousands of Australians took to the streets on Friday to protest against government inaction on climate change, and were supported by protesters in London.

-Australia's wildfires have dwarfed other recent catastrophic blazes, with its burnt terrain more than twice the extent of that ravaged by 2019 fires in Brazil, California and Indonesia combined.


-Westpac estimated total bushfire losses to date at about A$5 billion, higher than the 2009 bushfires in Victoria but smaller than the Queensland floods in 2010/11. It forecast a hit of 0.2% to 0.5% on gross domestic product.

-The Insurance Council of Australia increased to more than A$900 million its estimate of damage claims from the fires, and they are expected to jump further.

-About 100 firefighters from the United States and Canada are helping, with 140 more expected in coming weeks.


-The fires have emitted 400 megatons of carbon dioxide and produced harmful pollutants, the European Union's Copernicus monitoring program said.

-Smoke has drifted across the Pacific, affecting cities in South America, and may have reached the Antarctic, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization said.

(Reporting by Sonali Paul; additional reporting by Colin Packham in Sydney, Editing by Peter Cooney & Simon Cameron-Moore)

China's latest move in its Uighur crackdown is forcing Muslims to redecorate their homes to make them look more Chinese

sbaker@businessinsider.com (Sinéad Baker), Business Insider•January 13, 2020

China GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images

China's crackdown against its Uighur population reportedly involves it ordering people in the Muslim minority to redecorate their homes to make them more Chinese.

Radio Free Asia reported that Uighurs had been ordered to remove traditional furniture or design elements — and witnesses said that the vast majority are complying under threat of being sent to internment camps.

The US estimates that China has up to three million Uighur people detained in these camps, where people who have left speak of torture and medical experiments.

China denies the allegations and calls the camps "re-education" camps.

Uighurs are under heavy surveillance and China sends Chinese men to live with Uighur women, many of whose husbands have been sent to camps, and reports also say that China harvests the organs of Uighurs.

China is reportedly forcing members of its Uighur Muslim minority to redecorate their homes to make them look more traditionally Chinese.

Radio Free Asia reported that officials in China's Xinjiang western region are ordering Uighurs get rid of their their traditional home decoration and to "modernize" the spaces to make them more Chinese-influenced.

This includes replacing rugs and pillows traditionally used to sleep on with beds and the introduction of other furniture like desks, Radio Free Asia reported — with the threat of being placed in an internment camp if they do not comply.

The US State Department estimated last year that China could have up to three million Uighur people detained in these camps and in prisons across Xinjiang.

China calls them "re-education" camps, while those who have left speak of torture and medical experiments in the places. China denies such actions.

As well as these camps, China has taken steps to remove features of Uighur culture.

uighur china prison camps protest xinjiang Achmad Ibrahim/AP

China also runs a "Pair Up and Become Family" program, where it sends Chinese men to live with Uighur women, many of whose husbands have been sent to these camps.

Radio Free Asia previously reported that the men often sleep in the same bed as the women, and discuss the ideology of China's Communist Party during their stay.

One US-based Uighur activist, whose family are detained, called it "mass rape."

"The government is offering money, housing, and jobs to Han people to come and marry Uighur people," the unnamed activist said.

According to Radio Free Asia, China has created a $575 million fund to "modernize" the Uighur people, which includes destroying traditional design features in their homes.

Radio Free Asia spoke to one person in the region who said that Uighur people are complying with the order, and that around 80% or 90% of people in one village have complied.

FILE PHOTO: A propaganda banner and a security camera are placed on the walls of a mosque in the Old City in Kashgar, Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, China September 6, 2018. Picture taken September 6, 2018. REUTERS/Thomas PeterMore

It also spoke to one resident whose husband is at a Chinese camp who said that she had changed her home such that "you can't even recognize it anymore" and that she had "gotten rid of pretty much all of the carpets" under the order.

"We don't even wait for the officials to tell us what to do anymore because we all are so enlightened now," she said.

China sees Uighurs' religion as a threat, and began its movement against the people in 2016.

Reports have detailed a coordinated government effort detain them, and to subject them to extremely high levels of surveillance, including installing spyware on their phones and forbidding them from communicating with people outside of the Xinjiang region.

China has also been accused of harvesting organs from persecuted groups including Uighurs, though it denies this.

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China defends barring Human Rights Watch head from Hong Kong

Jing Xuan TENG, AFP•January 13, 2020
  

Kenneth Roth was supposed to give a press

 conference in Hong Kong to unveil the 

New York-based rights group's latest global survey

 (AFP Photo/JOHN MACDOUGALL)

Beijing (AFP) - China on Monday defended barring the head of Human Rights Watch from entering Hong Kong, saying non-governmental organisations were responsible for political unrest in the city and should "pay the proper price".

Kenneth Roth was supposed to give a press conference in Hong Kong this week to unveil the New York-based rights group's latest global survey, which accuses China of prosecuting "an intensive attack" on international human rights agencies.

The long-time executive director said Sunday that he was turned back by authorities at the city's airport.

China last month announced sanctions on American NGOs, including HRW, in retaliation for the passage of a US bill backing Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement.

"Allowing or not allowing someone's entry is China's sovereign right," foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press briefing.

"Plenty of facts and evidence show that the relevant NGO has through various means supported anti-China radicals, encouraged them to engage in extremist, violent and criminal activity, and incited Hong Kong independence separatist activities," Geng said.

"They bear major responsibility for the current chaos in Hong Kong. These organisations should be punished, and should pay the proper price."

Hong Kong has been battered by nearly seven months of occasionally violent protests, its biggest political crisis in decades.

Millions have turned out on the streets of the semi-autonomous financial hub to demand greater democratic freedoms.

"Why does Beijing advance the ludicrous fiction that @HRW incited the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests?" Roth fired back on Twitter.

"Because it is desperate to pretend that hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens aren't protesting Beijing's increasingly dictatorial rule."

- Not the first -

Roth joins a growing list of openly critical academics, researchers, politicians and activists who have been refused entry in recent years.

Financial Times journalist Victor Mallet was denied a visa renewal without reason in 2018 after he hosted a talk with the leader of a small and now banned independence party at the city's press club.

Last September, an American academic was barred from entering after he testified in a Congressional hearing alongside prominent Hong Kong democracy activists.

"I had hoped to spotlight Beijing's deepening assault on international efforts to uphold human rights," Roth said. "The refusal to let me enter Hong Kong vividly illustrates the problem."

Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's Asia division, said that when Roth asked why he was prevented from entering Hong Kong, he was only told that it was "immigration reasons".

"What we believe is that he was stopped because the Chinese government is afraid to have the world know what they are doing to the people of Hong Kong and the people of China," Robertson told AFP in Bangkok.

The unrest that began last June is the biggest crisis the former British colony has faced since its return to Chinese rule in 1997.

Under the terms of the handover, Hong Kong enjoys unique freedoms unseen on the mainland, but in recent years fears have increased that these liberties are being chipped away as Beijing exerts more control over the territory.

China and the Hong Kong administration have refused to cede to the protesters' demands, which include fully free elections in the city, an inquiry into alleged police misconduct, and amnesty for the nearly 6,500 people arrested during the movement -- nearly a third of them under the age of 20.

Hong Kong's Foreign Correspondents' Club, which was to host Roth's press conference on Wednesday, said in a statement it was concerned that the city's government was using the immigration department to "act punitively against organisations and media representatives it does not agree with, which is a violation of the commitment to free expression and free speech in Hong Kong law."

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The True Aim of the Gun Sanctuary Movement

WHITE POWER MILITIA'S LIKE RUBY RIDGE

Francis Wilkinson,Bloomberg•January 13, 2020

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- At first glance, the Second Amendment sanctuary movement currently burrowing into rural Virginia looks like a ballistic twist on the immigrant sanctuary cities movement. Both movements defy the law, one to protect undocumented immigrants from legally sanctioned deportation, the other to protect unlicensed firearms from legally sanctioned regulation.

But there is a significant difference, more political than legal. One sanctuary movement aims to protect a vulnerable population from personal harm. The other movement seeks to protect a group’s capacity to do harm — no matter how loud the outcry from a population vulnerable to gun violence.

Advocates for immigrant sanctuaries commonly invoke humanitarian, economic and public-safety arguments. Leaders of the guns-everywhere-for-anybody movement tend to dress up their concerns in the legal finery of the Second Amendment (minus the “well-regulated militia” part). Their argument, reduced to its essence, is two words: It’s unconstitutional.

Roughly 100 Virginia cities and counties have embraced some kind of sanctuary provision regarding guns. Other locales around the nation have as well. In the extremes of gun culture, commonplace proposals are treated as existential threats.

Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, a Democrat, now has a legislative majority in Richmond, and a host of gun proposals is in the works. They include background checks for all gun sales, bans on assault weapons, silencers and high-capacity magazines and a limit on gun purchases to one per month. (Michael Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg LP and a Democratic candidate for president, has voiced his support for the proposals.)

The National Rifle Association, which has its headquarters in Virginia, and other gun-rights groups are rallying to fight the proposals, sometimes with a curious inattention to detail. Last month Erich Pratt, senior vice president of Gun Owners of America, and Philip Van Cleave, president of the Virginia Citizens Defense League, released a 12-page letter to the people of Virginia. Over 12-single-spaced pages, they never quite get around to saying what those proposed regulations are — their broad outlines were debated in the campaign — or what makes them so awful. You will search the document in vain for the phrase “background check” or the word “silencer.”

You just have to take Pratt and Van Cleave at their word. And their word, which appears no fewer than 19 times, is “unconstitutional.” If any proposal “affects any law-abiding person,” Van Cleave told the Washington Post, “then we oppose it.”

One possible explanation for the pair’s reticence is that Pratt and Van Cleave have gotten a whiff of some polling data and it doesn’t smell good. A November survey of 901 registered Virginia voters found that 86% support making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks, while 73% support a “red flag” law enabling family members or police to obtain a court order to remove guns temporarily from those deemed a threat to themselves or others. A majority of Virginians, 54%, even support a ban on the semi-automatic rifles frequently called “assault weapons.”

As it turns out, gun regulation is pretty popular in Virginia, as it is in many other states (at least 17 of which have some type of red flag law). That, more than anything, also explains the resort to Second Amendment sanctuaries.

“Looking at a map of Virginia,” Pratt and Van Cleave wrote, “it becomes clear that only a few, geographically small, yet heavily populated, jurisdictions have declined to stand up against the current threats to the Virginia and United States Constitutions.”

In other words, the “heavily populated” parts of Virginia do not have the same view of gun rights as the sparsely populated parts. And since the Virginia legislature was duly elected by popular vote, legislators will likely be more responsive to the interests of the majority than of the minority.

America is a representative democracy. But the gun lobby and other parts of the conservative coalition are increasingly skeptical of that. Armed with an all-purpose Constitution that means whatever they want it to mean, they seek to block popular government action.

The Second Amendment sanctuaries emerging in Virginia and elsewhere may mark a burgeoning conservative counterculture. Contempt for the “geographically small, yet heavily populated” regions where most Americans reside is becoming a conservative tic. It’s the impetus behind those triumphal MAGA maps depicting countless hectares of American forest, farm and pasture in bold Republican red, while little enclaves such as Brooklyn, with a higher population than 15 states, are dismissed with a tiny blotch of blue.

Densely populated America, in other words, is not real America, and opposing real America is by definition unconstitutional. What the gun sanctuary movement is seeking is not protection from government overreach, but from democracy.

To contact the author of this story: Francis Wilkinson at fwilkinson1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Newman at mnewman43@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Francis Wilkinson writes editorials on politics and U.S. domestic policy for Bloomberg Opinion. He was executive editor of the Week. He was previously a writer for Rolling Stone, a communications consultant and a political media strategist.

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

The Iran Crisis Is Far From Over

Cyril Widdershoven Oilprice.com January 12, 2020

After a week of extreme turmoil in the Middle East, due to the killing of Iranian IRGC leader Soleimani, Iran’s 2nd in command, and the Iranian missile retaliation, global media and analysts are getting convinced that there is room for negotiation.

U.S. President Trump stated that he is open for dialogue with Iran, a move that calmed markets worldwide. Oil prices, which had spiked on the risk of an all-out war between the US and Iran and the possible fall-out for oil and gas production in the region, are now falling back to pre-Soleimani assassination levels.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo and UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei added to this bearish sentiment by saying that there is no risk of an oil shortage if hostilities do flare up. Al Mazrouei also reiterated that he doesn’t see any risk that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. This was confirmed by his Iranian colleague Zanganeh, who claimed that the crisis is profitable for Iran as oil and gas prices increased. These official statements need, however, to be taken with a truckload of salt. OPEC’s confidence that there is enough spare capacity in the market, and that there is ample supply, is a political statement to quell existing fears. The spare capacity of OPEC is at present almost totally in the hands of two main players, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while the rest of the members are struggling to reach even their own set targets. In case of a military confrontation between Iran (or proxies) and the US, a real possibility exists that total OPEC spare capacity is taken out. No other producer could substitute a possible loss of Saudi oil production.

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In reality, the crisis in Iran and Iraq will have a much larger impact than experts at Top-5 banks and trading houses are currently anticipating. At the same time, media reporting is biased, looking for possible light at the end of the tunnel, while taking any positive statement made by Washington, Riyadh-Abu Dhabi or Tehran as fact. The conflict is not over, you could even say that the current status of the conflict is like a smoldering peat-fire. You can feel the heat but you don’t see the flames.

Related: Iranian Cyberattack Hits Bahrain Oil Company

Assessments of last week’s developments have been largely looking at conventional military reactions. The Iranian missile attack on US forces in Iraq has been without casualties, reported in the media as a low-intensity retaliatory strike by Iran. The reality is more diffuse. Tehran has understood at present that an all-out military reaction, leading to a lot of US or Western casualties, was not going to be beneficial to the cause of the Mullahs. However, a reaction to Soleimani’s killing was demanded by extremist forces inside of Iran and its proxies. To expect that this will be the only reaction by Iran is naive. Trump has upped the ante, and Iranian leader Khamenei and his IRGC compatriots will almost certainly react in kind. Several scenarios need to be addressed by analysts and be integrated in their oil and gas assessments. Forget the Strait of Hormuz as the risks for Iran are likely higher than for its direct opponents. Other options are more likely.





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A proxy response via Hezbollah, Hamas or the pro-Iranian Shi’a militias in Iraq, against the main oil and gas operations of Western and Arab national oil companies now seems the most likely reaction. This type of response can be executed by proxies at a low cost, as these targets are easily accessible and high profile. Even without the direct involvement of Iran (IRGC), Tehran can put immense pressure on its Arab neighbors while at the same time hitting Western and Asian economies. Next to this, Tehran could escalate the proxy war by Hezbollah or Hamas against Israel.

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Even if no direct war is expected, as indicated by UAE Energy Minister Suhail today at the UAE Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi, experts expect that energy and water sectors in the Arab countries could be targeted. As shown by the Abqaiq attack, all these operations are very vulnerable to drones or possibly cyberattacks. By striking critical infrastructure, Iran and proxies will be able to destabilize not only the economies of the GCC region, but deal a blow to global economies too.

Related: Bearish Sentiment Returns To Oil Markets

A real asymmetric war threat is the use of cyberattacks to bring down specific or nationwide assets, such as oil-gas assets, desalination and power plants (IWPP). Tehran already has threatened to start a cyberwar against the U.S. and its allies, but at present no actions have been reported. Saudi Aramco, ADNOC or BAPCO could be targeted. Qatar’s energy installations are less vulnerable, looking at the reasonably strong relations between Doha and Tehran. Qatar, however, could get caught in the crossfire because of its large U.S. and Western military presence.

More worrying could be a cyberattack or even missile attack on energy-water projects, as this type of infrastructure is crucial for the entire region. A proxy or asymmetric war strategy by Iran is the most feasible and will be hard to counter by the West or Arab states. The Mullah regime understands its options. A full-scale attack on Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhabi, or a military confrontation in Iraq will be met this time by a large military reaction by U.S. President Trump, with possible support of his NATO partners.

Looking at the current situation, Iranian leader Khamenei and his cohorts will need to react soon. A long delay will be considered a sign of weakness. WWIII can be virtually ruled out as Iran is too weak and the Western-Arab alliance has not yet got enough men on the ground. Proxy wars will continue to plague the region, and these conflicts could escalate further if Iran continues its current nuclear program.

The above scenarios could all have a detrimental impact on oil and gas production and exports from the world’s most important hydrocarbon region. Taking out Saudi or UAE oil infrastructure will remove spare capacity with a bang. Just the disruption of Iraqi oil supply could cause a shock in the world’s oil markets. Geopolitics are real and even if the risk premium in oil prices seems to be fading, analysts should not ignore the current risks in the Middle East, The East-Mediterranean and Libya.

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IRAN UPDATES 1/13/2020

Video appears to show Iranian police firing live ammunition at protesters

Catherine Garcia, The Week•January 13, 2020


Videos posted online Monday appear to show Iranian police firing live ammunition and tear gas at demonstrators protesting the government accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian International Airlines jet, The Associated Press reports.

Tehran originally denied any involvement in last Wednesday's crash, which killed all 176 people on board, but later admitted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had mistakenly shot down the plane. The incident occurred shortly after Iran fired ballistic missiles at two Iraqi air bases hosting U.S. troops, launched in response to President Trump authorizing an airstrike that killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

Protests were held throughout the weekend, with demonstrators speaking out against what they consider a cover-up by the government. One video shot on Sunday night shows protesters near Tehran's Azadi Square fleeing after a tear gas canister fell by them, AP reports. Another video shows a woman being carried away from the scene, with a person shouting that she had been shot in the leg by live ammunition. Late last year, Iranians took to the streets to protest against high gas prices, and the unrest reportedly led to the deaths of more than 300 people.

Rob Macaire, the British ambassador to Iran, attended a vigil in Tehran for the plane crash victims on Saturday night. He left once the vigil became a protest, and was detained about 30 minutes later; he was released after speaking with Iran's deputy foreign minister. Britain called this a "flagrant violation of international law," while Iran's Foreign Ministry considered Macaire's presence at the gathering "illegal and inappropriate."
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Popular anger swelled Monday in Iran over the accidental shootdown of a Ukrainian jetliner and the government's attempt to conceal its role in the tragedy, as online videos appeared to show security forces firing live ammunition and tear gas to disperse protests in the streets.

Iranians, already suffering under crippling U.S. sanctions, expressed shock and outrage over the plane crash that killed scores of young people. They also decried the misleading statements from top officials, who only admitted responsibility three days later in the face of mounting evidence.

The country began last week engulfed in mourning after a U.S. drone strike killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who led Iran's regional military interventions. Then on Jan. 8, it responded with a ballistic missile attack on two bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq, although there were no casualties. Hours after that barrage, as it braced for a U.S. counterattack that never came, Iranian forces accidentally shot down the Ukraine International Airlines jetliner, killing all 176 people aboard shortly after it took off from Tehran for Kyiv.

For a growing number of critics — from ordinary citizens to notable athletes and artists — the events have revealed a government that is incapable of following through on its incendiary rhetoric and willing to mislead its own people about a national tragedy in order to avoid embarrassment.

Those sentiments first boiled over late Saturday, shortly after the Revolutionary Guard admitted to shooting the plane down by mistake. A candlelight vigil at a university rapidly turned into an anti-government demonstration.

“They are lying that our enemy is America! Our enemy is right here!” students shouted.

On Sunday night, protesters massed in Tehran's Azadi, or Freedom, Square.

Videos sent to the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran and later verified by The Associated Press show a crowd of demonstrators near Azadi Square fleeing as a tear gas canister lands among them. People cough and sputter while trying to escape the fumes, with one woman calling out in Farsi: “They fired tear gas at people! Azadi Square! Death to the dictator!”

Another video shows a woman being carried away in the aftermath of the violence, a trail of blood visible on the ground. Those around her cry out that she has been shot in the leg.

“Oh my God, she’s bleeding nonstop!” one person shouts. Another shouts: “Bandage it!”

Photos and video after the incident show pools of blood on the sidewalk.

Tehran's police chief, Gen. Hossein Rahimi, later denied that his officers opened fire.

“Police treated people who had gathered with patience and tolerance,” Iranian media quoted Rahimi as saying. “Police did not shoot in the gatherings since broad-mindedness and restraint has been the agenda of the police forces of the capital.”

The semi-official Fars news agency reported that police had “shot tear gas in some areas."

Fars, which is close to the Revolutionary Guard, carried videos purportedly shot Sunday night showing demonstrators chanting: “We are children of war. Fight with us, we will fight back.” Another Fars video showed demonstrators in Tehran tearing down a poster of Soleimani.

On Sunday, authorities deployed forces across Tehran — police, members of the Revolutionary Guard on motorcycles and plainclothes security men. The heavy security presence continued into Monday, when protests were largely confined to universities and there were no reports of clashes.

President Donald Trump has openly encouraged the demonstrators, even tweeting messages of support in Farsi and warning the government not to fire on them. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tweeted that “we are following the protests in Tehran very attentively,” adding that Iranians “have a right to free expression without repression and persecution."

But earlier, larger waves of protests going back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution have been crushed by security forces. Amnesty International says more than 300 people were killed in November during days of protests sparked by an increase in gasoline prices.

Most of the people aboard the Ukraine International Airlines jet were Iranians and Iranian-Canadians. For three days, Iranian officials ruled out any attack on the plane, suggesting the crash of Flight 752 was caused by a technical failure. Only on Saturday did authorities acknowledge shooting it down, as evidence mounted and after Western leaders accused Iran of culpability.

Several activists in Ukraine rallied in front of the Iranian Embassy in Kyiv on Monday, expressing solidarity with protesters and condemning Iran's “dictatorship."

The European Union's aviation agency has since advised carriers against overflight of Iran “at all altitudes” until further notice. Several airlines have already canceled flights to and from Iran and rerouted flights to avoid Iranian airspace.

Ali Rabiei, a government spokesman, insisted Iran's civilian officials learned only on Friday that the Revolutionary Guard had shot down the plane. The Guard answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“The point is that we did not lie,” Rabiei said. He went on to blame the U.S. for “spreading the shadow of war over Iran.”

Ebrahim Raisi, the head of Iran's judiciary, issued a warning to protesters, saying “the agents of America and agents of foreign countries” want to use anger over Flight 752 to “compromise” Iran’s security. Iran often blames anti-government protests on foreign conspiracies.

On Saturday, Iranian authorities briefly arrested British Ambassador Rob Macaire, who said he went to the candlelight vigil to pay his respects and left as soon as the chanting began.

Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the British ambassador Sunday to protest what it said was his presence at an illegal protest. Britain, in turn, summoned Iran's ambassador on Monday “to convey our strong objections” over the weekend arrest.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman, James Slack, said the envoy's detention was “an unacceptable breach of the Vienna Convention.”

“We are seeking full assurances from the Iranian government that it will never happen again,” he said.

In addition to the street protests, Iran's government has also faced harsh criticism from prominent artists, athletes and journalists.

A number of artists, including famed director Masoud Kimiai, withdrew from an upcoming international film festival. Two state TV hosts resigned in protest over the false reporting about what happened to Flight 752.

Taraneh Alidoosti, one of Iran's most famous actresses, posted a picture of a black square on Instagram with the caption: “We are not citizens. We are hostages. Millions of hostages.”

Saeed Maroof, the captain of Iran’s national volleyball team, also wrote on Instagram: “I wish I could be hopeful that this was the last scene of the show of deceit and lack of wisdom of these incompetents but I still know it is not.”

He said that despite Iran's national team qualifying for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics after years of effort, “there is no energy left in our sad and desperate souls to celebrate.”

Associated Press writers Joseph Krauss in Dubai, Jill Lawless in London, Frank Jordans in Berlin and Yuras Karmanau in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed.

Iran protesters take to the streets in third day of demos over plane

By Babak Dehghanpisheh,Reuters•January 13, 2020


DUBAI (Reuters) - Protesters took to the streets of Iran for a third day on Monday, expressing outrage over the authorities' admission that they had shot down a passenger plane by accident during a confrontation with the United States.

Video from inside Iran showed riot police and protesters back out on the streets on Monday after two days of violent anti-government demonstrations. Images of the earlier protests showed slogans chanted against the supreme leader, with pools of blood on the streets and gunfire in the air.

Authorities denied that police had opened fire, while U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted: "don't kill your protesters."

Demonstrations at home against Iran's rulers are the latest twist in one of the most destabilizing escalations between the United States and Iran since the Iranian revolution of 1979.

Tehran has acknowledged shooting down the Ukrainian jetliner by mistake on Wednesday, killing 176 people, hours after it had fired at U.S. bases to retaliate for the killing of Iran's most powerful military commander in a drone strike ordered by Trump.

Iranian public anger, rumbling for days as Iran repeatedly denied it was to blame for the plane crash, erupted into protests on Saturday when the military admitted its role.

Videos posted late on Sunday recorded gunshots in the vicinity of protests in Tehran's Azadi Square. Wounded were being carried and security personnel could be seen running with rifles. Other posts showed riot police hitting protesters with batons as people nearby shouted "Don't beat them!"

"Death to the dictator," footage circulating on social media showed protesters shouting, directing their fury at Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the system of clerical rule.

"They killed our elites and replaced them with clerics," demonstrators chanted at a protest outside a university on Monday, an apparent reference to Iranian students returning to studies in Canada who were among those killed on the flight.

Reuters could not independently authenticate the footage. State-affiliated media reported the protests on Saturday and Sunday in Tehran and other cities, without giving such details.

SHOWDOWN

"At protests, police absolutely did not shoot because the capital's police officers have been given orders to show restraint," Hossein Rahimi, head of the Tehran police, said in a statement carried by the state broadcaster's website.

Iran's latest showdown with the United States has come at a precarious time for the authorities in Tehran and their allies across the Middle East, when sanctions imposed by Trump have caused deep harm to the Iranian economy.

Iranian authorities killed hundreds of protesters in November in what appears to have been the bloodiest crackdown on anti-government unrest since the 1979 revolution. In Iraq and Lebanon, governments that have the support of Iran-backed armed groups have also faced months of hostile mass demonstrations.

Trump wrote on Twitter late on Sunday that National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien had "suggested today that sanctions & protests have Iran 'choked off', will force them to negotiate."

"Actually, I couldn’t care less if they negotiate. Will be totally up to them but, no nuclear weapons and 'don’t kill your protesters'," he wrote, repeating his earlier tweets making similar calls to the Iranian authorities not to open fire.

Iran's government spokesman dismissed Trump's comments, saying Iranians were suffering because of his actions and they would remember that he had ordered the killing in a drone strike of Qassem Soleimani, the general whose death on Jan. 3 prompted huge morning ceremonies in Iran over several days.



Trump precipitated the escalation with Iran in 2018 by pulling out of a deal between Tehran and world powers under which sanctions were eased in return for Iran curbing its nuclear program. He has said the goal is to force Iran to agree to a more stringent pact.

Iran has repeatedly said it will not negotiate as long as U.S. sanctions are in place. It denies seeking nuclear arms.

The recent flare-up began in December when rockets fired at U.S. bases in Iraq killed a U.S. contractor. Washington blamed pro-Iran militia and launched air strikes that killed at least 25 fighters. The militia surrounded the U.S. embassy in Baghdad for two days, and Trump later ordered the strike on Soleimani, who had built up Iran's regional network of allied militia.

Iran retaliated on Wednesday by firing missiles at Iraqi bases where U.S. troops were stationed, but did not kill any Americans. The Ukrainian plane, on its way to Kiev, crashed hours later. Most of those killed were Iranians or Iranian dual nationals. Scores were Canadians, most believed to be dual nationals who had traveled to Iran to visit relatives there.

After days of denying responsibility, commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued profuse apologies. Iran's president called it a "disastrous mistake". A top commander said he had told the authorities on the day of the crash it had been shot down, raising questions about why Iran had initially denied it.

Canada held vigils. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told one event: "We will not rest until there are answers."

Canada's Transportation Safety Board (TSB) said it had obtained visas for two of its investigators to travel to Iran

(Reporting by Babak Dehghanpisheh and Parisa Hafezil; Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Peter Graff)

Iran protests continue for third day

Iranian officials are trying to contain a third day of angry protests after the country admitted it accidentally shot down a Ukranian airliner. All 176 people on board, including 82 Iranians, were killed when the plane went down shortly after takeoff. CBS News senior foreign correspondent Elizabeth Palmer joined CBSN AM from London with more.3H AGO

Capitalism, the climate crisis and hope: your priorities for 2020

AS A LONG TIME PROMOTER OF A FREE PRESS, AN ALTERNATIVE UNDERGROUND PRESS OPPOSING CAPITALISM I SUPPORT THIS FUNDING REQUEST 

Guardian staff, The Guardian•January 13, 2020



In November, we launched an ambitious year-end campaign to to raise $1.5m from our US readers to support our journalism in 2020. We’re excited to report that thanks to more than 30,000 Guardian readers from all 50 states, we’ve already raised more than $1.3m. Your support will give us the resources to cover what’s already proving be a pivotal year for America – with everything from the presidential election to climate policy to the supreme court at stake.

We also asked Guardian US readers to vote on what they want our newsroom to focus on in 2020. More than a thousand of you voted on topics, and almost as many submitted story ideas.

The five topics that received the most support were, in descending order:


Disinformation and the 2020 election


America’s sick healthcare system


Climate refugees and forced displacement in the US


The high price of American food production: pollution, pesticides, etc


America’s neglected schools and classrooms

We’ve already started tackling all five winning topics in the new year, from the Americans dying young because they lack healthcare to the strain that our insatiable appetite for almonds is placing on America’s bee population. And in the coming months, we’ll be developing bigger series and investigations based on some of the hundreds of story ideas readers submitted. Here are some of the topics that came up most frequently.
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The future of capitalism

Dozens of you want to see more reporting on wealth inequality, executive pay, out-of-control housing costs, and the economic pressures confronting ageing Americans.

Many of you also linked American capitalism to the planet’s growing climate crisis. Garry Thomas, for example, asks that the Guardian “explore the economic barriers to adjusting our capitalistic society to deal with climate change”. Another reader wants to hear from “scientists, ethicists, theologians and ordinary people what their ideas would be for how to shift our values to an ethical economic system that will be less destructive to our environment”.

Related: From the editor of Guardian US: why we need your support in 2020
The climate crisis

The plurality of story ideas we received had do with the climate crisis. Readers want coverage on clean water shortages, the climate’s impact of American food production, how the Trump administration’s rollback on environmental protections is contributing to the crisis, whether recycling makes a meaningful difference, species extinction, overpopulation and more.

“Everything must be framed through the lens of climate change as every societal ill will be exacerbated by it,” writes Marshall McComb. Anne Fenimore agrees: “Climate change is the most important issue of our time. All the stories suggested are worthy of coverage, but they are meaningless if we do not address climate change.”

Sign up to the Green Light email to get the planet’s most important stories
2020 elections and voting rights

Guardian readers are particularly concerned about the health of America’s elections going into 2020. Readers expressed anxiety about voter suppression, the electoral college and money in politics, among other electoral ills. “Keep us informed about the real effects of political gerrymandering and how it has taken the voice from voters in many states, and defeats the popular vote by increasingly wider margins,” Mike requests. Another reader asks that the Guardian “state the number of people purged from the voter rolls since the supreme court gutted the Voting Rights Act”. (We’re tracking the purges closely in our Fight to vote project and will keep doing so through the election.)
America’s broken healthcare

In a country where up to 25% of the population delays medical care because of costs, it’s no surprise that readers want more coverage of America’s broken, convoluted healthcare system. A number of readers want more coverage of the pharmaceutical industry. Bart wants us to dig into the “collusion between government, doctors, hospitals and pharmaceutical industries”. Another reader asks: “If the motive of the medical industry was wellness instead of profit, and if the goal of the insurance industry was care instead of profit, then could we realize universal healthcare for all?”
Hope and solutions

We also heard repeated requests to break up the relentless pace of bad news with inspiring, solutions-oriented reporting on activists and innovators bringing change to their communities. Here, too, the overlap with climate change kept coming up. A reader named Nicholas asks for “stories about people and organizations that are effectively organizing and working against systemic injustice, inequality, and climate change … Reading about people who are creating solutions and being their own change is also critical for instilling hope and offering models of how we can work against humanity’s worst impulses.” Another reader wants stories about “people doing amazing and proactive changes to better our world. I want to meet the people who made paper straws, bamboo diapers, eco-friendly products etc.”

We couldn’t agree more with the need for more news that inspires hope and optimism. That’s the thinking behind the Upside, a project that focuses on the people, ideas and initiatives trying to solve some of the world’s biggest problems. For a weekly antidote to the gloom so prominently featured in daily headlines, you can sign up for the Upside’s weekly newsletter here – and we’re committed to finding more hopeful stories in the US as well.
Less Trump?

On what’s perhaps a related note, a lot of you would like to see less of Trump. Literally – several readers acknowledged the necessity of reporting on the American president but want fewer visual reminders. “Skip the picture, please,” writes one reader.

To everyone who voted, shared an idea and supported the Guardian in the last year: thank you. Your input and support make our work possible.

It’s not too late to support the Guardian’s journalism in 2020 and beyond; you can do so here

Puerto Ricans hoping Trump signs major disaster declaration


CBS News•January 12, 2020


Millions of Puerto Ricans are waiting to see if President Donald Trump will sign a major disaster declaration to authorize much needed aid. Four thousand people are still in shelters and many others are sleeping outside after yet another powerful earthquake.

A 5.9 magnitude earthquake shook southwestern Puerto Rico on Saturday just before 9 a.m. It was the strongest since last week's 6.4 quake. More than 2,000 tremors have occurred since December 28.Saturday's earthquake didn't injure or kill anyone, but there were landslides and damage to homes and businesses.

"You never know what could happen. Anything can just go just like this," said Praxides Rodriguez, snapping her fingers. "Love your family, appreciate them, you know, just thank God every day for what you have."

Rodriguez and her husband have been living in a tent in Guanica, one of the hardest hit areas. Many people there have set up camps at the top of a mountain because that's where they feel safest as aftershocks continue.

Rodriguez said she's okay, but hopes more help is coming for those less able to take care of themselves.

"We don't know how much longer we're going to be here," she told CBS News correspondent David Begnaud. "We have a lot of elderly that are really in bed, that can't even move out of bed."

UP CLOSE: A grandmother with Alzheimer's was in a bed in the front yard of her family's home, sunburned and sweating. After a series of earthquakes in Puerto Rico, the family had no power, no water and couldn't find an ambulance. @DavidBegnaud reports: https://t.co/PHLCSKu63j pic.twitter.com/ZzMmsdtj1D

— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) January 12, 2020

Elizabeth Vanacore, with the Puerto Rico Seismic Network, warned residents that they should still expect "some aftershocks." The network has more than 20 sensors installed around the island to detect earthquake magnitude.

Mr. Trump has not yet signed the major disaster declaration. The island also hasn't received more than $18 billion in federal funding that was designated after hurricanes that struck more than two years ago, according to the Washington Post.

But, FEMA's top official in Puerto Rico, Alex Amparo, said they're not waiting.

"We've got our teams out in the field," he said. "The tremendous amount of mutual aid that's happening from the island, I'm sure you saw on your way here."

Traffic was backed up Sunday in the mountains of the hardest hit regions as Puerto Ricans came from near and far to bring supplies to their neighbors in need. Since Hurricane Maria, many Puerto Ricans say they've learned they can't rely on the government in times of disaster.

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Puerto Ricans Unable to Reach Earthquake Shelters Say They’re Getting ‘No Help from Government’

Jhoni Jackson,The Daily Beast•January 12, 2020
 

REUTERS

PONCE, PUERTO RICO—Squinting at the blistering sun, Jeanette Fontánez looks overheated and exasperated. “We can’t live in our houses because they’re cracked,” she tells The Daily Beast. “We need soap, mattresses, tents, water, supplies—a little bit of everything, because there’s a lot of us here.”

But as of Saturday afternoon, government officials and agencies had yet to arrive to where the 49-year-old Fontánez has sought refuge: In a public park within walking distance from her home, which she says is unsafe to be inside.

“We’ve been here since Tuesday,” says Fontánez, who was there with her 9-year-old daughter. Families are spread throughout the park, some set up near parked cars, other stationed under tarps.

‘You’re Never Prepared For This’: Puerto Rico Reels From Fresh Quake Nightmare

Fontánez is one of an estimated 2,000 Puerto Ricans displaced by an unrelenting streak of earthquakes in the island’s southern region beginning Dec. 28 and culminating, at least so far, in Tuesday’s 6.4 magnitude event, followed by subsequent tremblors and then, on Sunday morning, an unexpected jump to 5.9. Electrical outages are widespread in the area. Some residents are also without water service.

Many families are living within sight of their rattled homes without stepping inside, much less sleeping in them. The constant shaking has compounded fears of being indoors even for those whose houses bear no noticeable ruptures. And the recently restored electricity departed again with Sunday morning’s quake.

Saturday, an LGBT-led caravan of volunteers arrived to serve meals and hand out water, sanitary wipes, diapers, and other supplies. It was only the second time donations were disbursed at the park, Fontánez says.

The supplies they have received may have been surplus items from well stocked shelters being supplied by Puerto Rican authorities, politicians, NGOs, and other groups. But little of that is so far making its way to smaller encampments, like the one in La Luna, says Fontánez.

Her appeal is echoed by the families of Barrio Macaná in Guayanilla, another hard-hit municipality, and one where more than 50 percent of residents live below the poverty line. The neighborhood is only about a mile from the downtown area, but many residents lack transportation, and physically, the hilly trek is challenging for a person carrying supplies.

These residents need the aid to come to them, says army veteran Diego Cruz, 59.

Cruz is among a group of about 10, comprised of immediate and extended family of separate homes who’ve banded together. This includes three minors, plus an 81-year-old man with a leg amputation whose dilapidated wheelchair badly needs replacing.

“If you’re going to help and you’re going to an encampment that you know is already being given supplies, everything they need, then I don't understand,” Cruz says. “What about the people outside that need things, like us? There are people who can't get down [there].”

(Representatives of the municipalities of Ponce and Guayanilla dd not return requests for comment for this story.)

One home among the group’s is especially unsound, Cruz notes, showing The Daily Beast a long, vertical split in the cement on the structure’s rear wall, and an apparently unsturdy foundation beneath. At night, the front area of the house—a shared patio between two homes —becomes one big outdoor bedroom, complete with makeshift beds of mattresses atop cinder blocks.

As noted in the mission statement of Maria Fund, a nonprofit created to cull funding specifically for local, grassroots organizations in Puerto Rico post-Hurricane Maria, it’s the “vulnerable communities” that “are too often underserved by relief agencies.” To offset this problem, donations to the overall fund are diffused to an island-wide network of collectives and groups — like La Brigada Solidaria del Oeste (Western Solidarity Brigade), various Centros de Apoyo Mutuo (Centers for Mutual Support), and others — that are more familiar with the needs of local populations.

Ayuda Legal Puerto Rico, a nonprofit advocating for the legal rights of low-income communities, is another Maria Fund recipient. The group has organized a petition on Change.org calling on Governor Wanda Vazquez to provide free transportation to shelters and to establish more shelters in unaffected structures in the northern part of the island, away from the earthquake epicenters.

Executive Director Ariadna Godreau tells The Daily Beast that the government has not adequately addressing long-term displacement, and is repeating the same mistakes seen post-Maria.

“The government is preparing as if this is the normal state for refugees: portable bathrooms, portable beds,” she says. “Nobody’s thinking about how to solve the issue of temporary housing, nobody’s thinking about transitional housing. They are trying to make displacement the new normal for these people, who are entitled to housing.”

Issues around protocol — hygeine, sexual violence, and other risks — in the unofficial camps is another concern expressed by Godreau. Those camps are ultimately the government’s responsibility too, she says.

“The governor said yesterday at a press conference that people don’t want to move. But some people don’t want to move because they don’t have the alternative, or don’t have the transportation.”

Displaced Puerto Ricans post-Maria spent months in shelters and, Godreau says, were ultimately pressured out by FEMA and government authorities. “They told them you have two options: The shelters are closing… or you have to move to the U.S. That is forcibly displacing people,” she says.

If residents hoped the swarm of earthquakes was tapering off, Saturday’s 8:54 a.m. jolt, which was felt throughout the island, likely renewed anxieties about the duration of this already lengthy natural disaster. Aftershocks have continued since.

More than $18 billion in disaster relief funds allocated for Puerto Rico after the devastation of Hurricane Maria, in which upwards of 4,000 people died (many of them post-storm), is still being withheld by the Trump administration.

Four deaths total—direct or indirect—have been reported so far in connection with the earthquakes. Low-income populations, the elderly, young children, and people with chronic illnesses and disabilities are most at risk after any natural disaster.

“We’re thankful, because if the cell phones weren't working, nobody would get here,” Cruz says. “Through phone calls and reaching out, that's how people have gotten here. We've had help from different people, but no help from the government.”

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