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Strategic Use Of Migration: The View From Cuba, Nicaragua, And Venezuela – Analysis


By 

By Giacomo Mattei and Luis Campos

Countries can strategically employ emigration as a means to economic development, political stability, and geopolitical leverage. However, such strategies can carry risks and prove unsustainable. The United States should tailor its regional policies to the considerations of sending countries to maximize regional cooperation on migration management.

Emigration as Economic Alleviation

Some countries actively encourage emigration as a strategy for development. Migrant laborers send back a portion of their earnings – remittances – which can have multiplier effects on the home economy.

For many countries, remittances make up a larger portion of gross domestic product (GDP) than foreign direct investment (FDI). The World Bank’s data shows that Nicaragua’s 2022 GDP was over 20% remittances and just over 8% FDI. In 2023, remittances to Nicaragua were nearly 50% higher than the year before, standing at $4.24 billion, an estimated 28% of GDP.

Venezuela, on the other hand, has consistently received fewer remittances and very little FDI between 2000-2022 (both remaining largely below 2% of GDP according to World Bank data), though the Inter-American Dialogue estimates that remittances reached 5% of GDP in 2023. Interesting hypotheses can be considered to explain this behavior, such as the migration of entire family households, and/or a lack of confidence in the country’s future as a destination for personal and family investment.

While there is not sufficient data about the amount of remittances and their weight in Cuba’s economy, indirect evidence suggests that the chronic economic crisis was aggravated further after an estimated decrease of 3.31% in remittances since 2022, despite an amendment to the limit approved by the US government. Thus, in Cuba, migration appears to be an asset for political stability rather than a path for economic alleviation, given other structural factors that exert a more significant effect on the national economy.

However, the inherent risk is that overreliance on remittances does not constitute a sustainable economic development model. Remittances present an “easy” lifeline for governments, which may disincentivize diversification and state-sponsored investment in the economy. As Manuel Orozco observes in Nicaragua, remittances are unsustainably shouldering the responsibility of supporting private investment, providing access to credit, and reducing debt. Nicaragua taxes the added income from remittances, which supports the regime. Nicaragua is not reinvesting such taxes in the country.

Overreliance on remittances can also increase the vulnerability of governments antagonistic to the United States. For example, as Nicaragua increasingly relies on remittances, future policy pressure from Washington may significantly tamper growth and increase the prospect for new civil unrest crises. This is also echoed in previous debates in the U.S. about using the Patriot Act antiterrorism law to cut off remittances to hostile governments.

Emigration as a Political Stabilizer

Allowing or encouraging emigration can politically stabilize countries with high labor surplus or political dissatisfaction. Emigration reduces unemployment, which can reduce economic grievances, known as the “safety valve” effect. Relatedly, the emigration of political dissidents or economically dissatisfied citizens leaves only the more satisfied, passively dissatisfied, and regime-supporting citizens in the country, which translates to reduced risks of political violence and protest.

This safety valve effect was well understood by Fidel Castro. Over his decades-long rule, he repeatedly allowed political dissidents or economically disaffected Cubans to emigrate to the United States, with the most salient example being the 1980 Mariel Boatlift. Cuba continued to use the emigration safety valve while the US’ “wet foot, dry foot” policy was in place.

In Cuba, after the mass protests of July 11, 2021 the regime developed major legal disincentives for future protests. The penal code approved in September 2022 included more severe penalties for individuals who commit acts against the socialist constitutional order. Similarly, Nicaragua and Venezuela have approved legislation such as Nicaragua’s 977, 1042, and 1055 laws, and Venezuela’s laws against organized crime and financing of terrorism, and against hate, for peaceful coexistence and tolerance. These new pieces of legislation along with high discretionary application deter many from further engaging in domestic political life and incentivize greater emigration.

Emigration, however, also creates chances for the potential formation of external diaspora opposition or internal opposition groups supported by diasporas. For example, diasporas can “remit” democratic values and opposition back home. In Venezuela, the diaspora has represented opportunities for increased engagement from the opposition with international organizations, foreign governments, and even the formation of a contending parallel government (as in the appointment of Juan Guaidó as interim president and a series of congress members in exile). For this reason, some diasporas have faced measures to restrict the entry of funding into the home country. For example, Nicaragua has approved a foreign agent law, increased monitoring and restriction of remittances, awardsfrom abroad, and cryptocurrency transactions.

Emigration for Geopolitical Leverage

Internationally, countries can leverage emigration crises to destabilize or extract concessions from neighboring countries. This is a form of “reputational blackmail” often directed at more liberal destination countries, which highlights liberal countries’ inconsistent commitments to championing life and liberty while simultaneously attempting to keep asylum seekers out.

The central historical example of this strategy is Cuba’s 1980 Mariel Boatlift, when Castro sent thousands of “socially undesirable” migrants to the U.S., turning up the political heat on President Jimmy Carter in the hope of reducing criticism of the Castro regime.

Migration, not only from but also through Nicaragua, has allegedly been used as an attempt by the Ortega-Murillo regime to exert geopolitical leverage by increasing the weight of migration on the U.S., presumably in exchange for sanction relief. Charter and scheduled flights from several migration origins have been reported to arrive in Managua as part of global migrant trafficking networks, as Nicaragua represents an attractive “shortcut” to alternatives like the Darien Gap. Flights with Cuban, Haitian, Indian, Moroccan, and Senegalese migrants among several others, have been reported to arrive regularly in Managua, from where migrants travel by land to the U.S.

Similarly, in 2024, facing the prospect of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez told the United States: “If they carry out the false step of intensifying economic aggression against Venezuela, at the request of extremist lackeys in the country, from Feb. 13 the repatriation flights of Venezuelan migrants will be immediately revoked.” The logic behind these strategies is to threaten Washington with more migrants (or to be stuck with migrants presently on US territory) to deter the US government from levying sanctions.

However, this strategy can invite retaliation. For example, Washington imposed sanctions on “flight operators facilitating irregular migration” from Nicaragua in November 2023February 2024, and March 2024, which have been also addressed by the governments of Haiti and Belize.

Policy Recommendations for the United States

The diversity of strategic interests related to migration in the surveyed Latin American countries highlights the necessity of tailor-made policies rather than one-size approaches to migration from Latin America. The US government should reward more cooperation with more economic support.

In terms of carrots, along with developmental aid, the United States should implement incentives for governments in the region to cooperate with the enforcement of regular migration, thus creating a buffer zone that distributes the weight of temporary migrant assistance across several countries. This assistance is something Washington should be directly involved in.

The U.S. should also consider the implementation of incentives for local companies to nearshore business processes to disincentivize economic emigration. This is the underlying motivation for the 2021 “Root Causes Strategy,” which the U.S. should continue and also expand to include the countries discussed above.

To address political emigration, the United States has often promoted democracy and good governance. While the long-term impact of such policies may reduce emigration by political dissidents, democratizing pressures may antagonize autocratic governments, which may then weaponize migration against the U.S. An alternative is to build countries’ migration management capacity, but this effectively strengthens autocratic governments’ repressive apparatus. Short-term emigration may decline at the cost of greater future political emigration.

In addressing both root causes, the United States could expand its avenues for “regular” migration, while investing in its processing capacity to ensure its own security. Increased opportunities for safe and regular migration would disincentivize irregular crossings, while simultaneously allowing the U.S. to vet incoming migrants. Allowing vetted migrants would help the U.S. address its own labor shortages and help Latin American countries reduce unemployment and increase remittances.

In terms of sticks, Washington can use economic and selective sanctions against countries being actively uncooperative on (i.e. weaponizing) migration. This has been the response to Nicaragua. The U.S. should mitigate any expected backlash by increasing regional multilateral efforts at migration management.

Overall, the United States must match its policies to the emigration countries’ motivations, crafting a holistic approach that acknowledges the interrelated impacts of diplomatic, security, economic, and migration management policies.

About the authors:

  • Giacomo Mattei is a PhD student at The George Washington University studying migration geopolitics and security.
  • Luis Campos is chief analyst and editor for the Americas at Horizon Intelligence and author of Puentes y Cercos: La Geopolítica de la Integración Centroamericana published by Glasstree Academic Publishing.

Source: This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

Geopolitical Monitor

Geopoliticalmonitor.com is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service, providing research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs.


No, Mr Biden! You're Wrong to Say That Japan is 'Xenophobic'

The clumsy remarks made by President Biden were incorrect and unhelpful. Japan is welcoming more immigrants than ever, a trend the government wants to continue.
US President Joe Biden delivers brief remarks in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington on May 2, 2024. (©Reuters/Nathan Howard)

It was an astonishing diplomatic faux pas by United States President Joe Biden to describe Japan as "xenophobic." He even bundled the country together with Russia and India as being anti-immigrant.

Such injudicious comments are inaccurate. This has the potential to cause serious damage to the US-Japan relationship.

It is particularly disappointing that the President uttered such crass comments just a few weeks after hosting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Japanese business leaders at a grand state dinner in Washington.

Asakusa, Tokyo, is bustling with foreign visitors to Japan in August 2023. (© Sankei by Masahiro Sakai)

International Presence

Has Mr Biden realized that there are around 63,000 American citizens who are registered as foreign residents of Japan? Surely, if he had consulted members of this thriving community, he would have realized that most of them greatly appreciate the hospitality of the Japanese.

Unfortunately, Joe Biden did not do any research before speaking out. The US leader has become notorious for his loose talk. This has left some people wondering if he has lost the ability to appraise the impact of his words, perhaps as a result of his advanced age.

The president's gaffe was made at a fundraising event. Mr Biden argued that Japan, along with India, Russia, and China, would perform better economically if the countries embraced more immigration.

"You know, one of the reasons why our economy is growing is because of you and many others. Why? Because we welcome immigrants. We look to – the reason – look, think about it. Why is China stalling so badly economically? [And] why is Japan having trouble? Why is Russia? [And] India? Because they're xenophobic. They don't want immigrants," Mr Biden said, according to CNN.
Lawmakers added nine new fields to the category of Specified Skilled Worker (ii) on June 9, 2023 (© Kyodo)

Welcoming Skilled Immigrants

In reality, the Japanese government is not opposed to immigration. It actively encourages qualified people from other countries to take up permanent residency in Japan. For those eligible, it also offers homes to their families.

There were about 600,000 high-level foreign professionals with specialized skills living in Japan in October 2023, according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. That is more than double the 270,000 in 2018.

The Cabinet Office has appointed a special task force with the aim of attracting skilled tech workers from Southeast Asia and India. Some companies have asked their Japanese managers to ensure that the new arrivals find life easy to navigate - even if they don't speak much Japanese.

Alongside this, a scheme offering entrepreneur visas to people who want to establish businesses in Japan is thriving. It is proving particularly popular with people from Hong Kong.

Plans are also afoot to encourage thousands more immigrants to work in industries where there are currently skills shortages. This could mean opportunities for bus and taxi drivers. Immigrants may also wish to head into the woods, as the timber industry is crying out for help.
A simultaneous safety patrol of Japanese police and immigrant leaders, including community leaders such as Waqas Chikan representing the Japan Kurdish Cultural Association. November 4, 2023. (© Sankei by Kanata Iwasaki)

Charges of Racism

What about the idea that Japan is "xenophobic"?

It would have been wise for Joe Biden to have paused before using such a strong word. If he'd looked in a dictionary, he would have realized that xenophobia suggests a fear and contempt of foreigners, perhaps even a hatred of their customs.

The Encyclopedia Britannica notes that xenophobia derives from the ancient Greek words xenos, meaning stranger, and phobos, meaning fear.



A xenophobic country would be hostile to foreigners and see them as a threat. This is not the case in modern Japan.

In a post on the Quora Forum, Paul Newman, a Pole who has lived in Osaka since 2015, strongly rebuked a suggestion that Japan is xenophobic.

"I have never encountered this Japanese racism that Westerners keep talking about," wrote Newman.

"The worst I've ever experienced was a waitress ignoring me and instead addressing my Japanese girlfriend, asking her "Does this person need a fork?" while talking about me."

Newman says that this encounter was probably due to his poor command of the Japanese language at the time. He maintains that he's never heard anyone treating him in a racist way. Neither does he think he's ever been denied work due to being a foreigner.

"There's literally nothing I can complain about when it comes to Japanese manners and attitude. If they're saying bad things about me behind my back, then I've never heard it, and it never affected me in any noticeable way," says Newman, who has 172,000 followers on Quora.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre speaks during the daily press briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House in Washington on May 1, 2024. (© Reuters)
Press Headache

In Washington, it was down to Joe Biden's long-suffering press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre to try to prevent the President's remarks from causing too much of a furor.

She said her boss was attempting to make a larger point when he described Japan and India as "xenophobic."

"He was saying that when it comes to who we are as a nation, we are a nation of immigrants, that is in our DNA," she told reporters on board Air Force One.

It is not in the interest of Japan or India to stir up too much of a fuss about an off-the-cuff remark made by the President at a Democratic Party fundraiser.

Nevertheless, it would be appreciated if the US leader would show Japan an appropriate level of respect. That would include taking into consideration the respectful attitude of the Japanese towards foreigners.



Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.
Universities as factories

BRANKO MILANOVIC
MAY 04, 2024
Global Inequality and More 3.0 | Branko Milanovic | Substack



I have seen, and read about, of many instances when the police would clear universities of students who were demonstrating. The police would come in on the orders of the authorities unhappy with student-created oases of freedom. It would come, armed, beat up students, and end the protest. University administration would side with the students, invoke “the autonomy of the university” (that is, the right to be exempt from policing), resign, or be removed. This is the usual pattern.

The novelty, for me, in the current wave of freedom of speech demonstrations in the United States was that it was the university administrators who called for the police to attack students. In at least one case, in New York, the police were puzzled why they were brought in, and thought it was counter-productive. One could understand that this attitude by the administrator might happen in authoritarian countries where the administrators may be appointed by the powers-to-be to keep order on campuses. Then, obviously, as obedient civil servants, they would support the police in its “cleansing” activity although they would rarely have the authority to call it in.

But in the US, university administrators are not appointed by Biden, nor by Congress. Why would they then attack their own students? Are they some evil individuals who love to beat up younger people?

The answer is, No. They are not. They are just in a wrong job. They are not seeing their role as what traditionally was the role of universities, that is to try to impart to the younger generation values of freedom, morality, compassion, self-abnegation, empathy or whatever else is considered desirable. Their role today is to be the CEOs of factories that are called universities. These factories have a raw material which is called students and which they turn, at regular annual intervals, into graduates. Consequently, any disturbance in that production process is like a disturbance to a supply chain. It has to be eliminated as soon as possible in order for the production to resume. Graduating students have to be “outputted”, the new students brought in, moneys from them have to be pocketed, donors have to be found, more funds to be secured. Students, if they interfere with the process, need to be disciplined, if necessary by force. Police has to be brought in, order to be restored.

The administrators are not interested in values, but in the bottom-line. Their job is equivalent to that of a CEO of Walmart, CVS, or Burger King. They will use the talk about values, or “intellectually-challenging environment”, or “vibrant discussion” (or whatever!), as described in a recent article in The Atlantic, as the usual promotional, performative speech that top managers of companies nowadays produce at the drop of a hat. Not that anyone believes in such speeches. But it is de rigueur to make them. It is a hypocrisy that is widely accepted. The issue is that such a level of hypocrisy is still not entirely common at universities because they were, for historical reasons, not seen exactly like sausage factories. They were supposed to produce better people. But this was forgotten in the run for revenue and donors’ money. Thus the sausage factory cannot stop, and the police needs to be called in.
With a final flourish, United Methodist conference eliminates all anti-LGBTQ policies

The reversals came in the wake of a schism that saw the departure of a quarter of its US churches — more than 7,600 congregations — over the past five years.


Delegates, visitors and staff of the 2024 United Methodist General Conference in Charlotte, N.C., dance in the aisles following morning worship on the final day of the conference, Friday, May 3, 2024.
(Photo by Mike DuBose, UM News)

May 3, 2024
By Yonat Shimron


CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (RNS) — United Methodists concluded their General Conference on Friday (May 3) by removing the last barriers to full equality of LGBTQ+ members in the life of the church.

After repealing a 52-year-old declaration on Thursday that the practice of homosexuality is “incompatible with Christian teaching,” delegates on Friday went further, eliminating a passage in their Book of Discipline, or church law, that states: “Ceremonies that celebrate homosexual unions shall not be conducted by our ministers and shall not be conducted in our churches.”

They also eliminated provisions that would have charged clergy with immorality if they were not “faithful in a heterosexual marriage” or “celibate in singleness.” Instead, delegates supported adding a requirement of integrity in all personal relationships.

Earlier in the week they dropped a ban on the ordination of gay clergy. Most of the measures passed by a 3-1 margin.

The effect of all those measures was to expunge from the rulebook all punitive measures against LGBTQ+ people, a striking change for a denomination. The reversals came in the wake of — and were in part made possible by — a schism that saw the departure of more than 7,600 congregations, or about a quarter of its U.S. churches, over the past five years.

In striking its punitive language on homosexuality, the 11 million-member United Methodist Church joins the majority of the nation’s liberal Protestant denominations, which have extended full equality to LGBTQ+ members in recent decades.

Unlike other liberal U.S. Protestant groups, however, the United Methodist Church is a global denomination, with a presence on four continents, and it remains far from clear how churches in Africa and across the Philippines will respond to the bold new policy measures passed in Charlotte this week.


Virginie Umba at the 2024 United Methodist General Conference in Charlotte, N.C., Friday, May 3, 2024. (RNS photo/Yonat Shimron)

“We are not happy,” said Virginie Umba, a pastor from the Republic of the Congo. “In American society, (homosexuality) is OK. In my country it is not. Our church will have a problem if they put this in the Book of Discipline.”

Homosexuality is illegal in more than two dozen African countries, and many overseas clergy worried whether the relaxing of prohibitive policies on LGBTQ+ people would put their churches in direct conflict with government laws.

The differing church views on homosexuality were evident in the conference’s deliberations over the definition of marriage. On Wednesday, a Zimbabwean delegate proposed an amendment to the definition that acknowledged that marriage is a union between a man and woman, adding that it can also be a union between “two adult persons of consenting age.”

That amendment was overwhelmingly agreed to by delegates as a way to accommodate Methodists in Africa. But it is not clear if it will be enough to sway United Methodists in more socially conservative regions.

The denomination did pass a series of measures to restructure the worldwide denomination to give each region greater equity in tailoring church life to its own customs and traditions, a plan called “regionalization.” If ratified by two-thirds of delegates to its numerous annual conferences around the world over the next year, the restructuring would allow church regions to write their own rules on sexuality. But the church has tried to regionalize its work before and it has failed. It’s unclear if it it will succeed this time.

Churches outside the U.S. were not eligible to exit the denomination under the disaffiliation plan that saw American churches depart with minimal cost. Two dissenting groups — Good News Magazine and the Wesleyan Covenant Association — attended the conference as observers to try to help African delegates to push for a disaffiliation plan for congregations abroad.

“This seems like a matter of simple justice to extend that disaffiliation option to them as well,” said Scott Field, president of the Wesleyan Covenant Association. They were not successful.



Over 700 delegates to the 2024 United Methodist General Conference work on church business in Charlotte, N.C., Friday May 3, 2024. (Photo by Larry McCormack, UM News)

The WCA brought a group of 27 observers to Charlotte, including nine Africans. Delegates instead voted to eliminate from its rulebook the pathway for disaffiliation that was created in 2019 for U.S. churches.

As they left the Charlotte Convention Center Friday, the United Methodist Queer Delegate Caucus could credibly claim an overwhelming victory.

“We met all the goals that we were aiming for this time,” said Austin Adkinson, pastor of Light of the Hill United Methodist Church in Puyallup, Washington, a gay man and a delegate to the conference. “We didn’t get an affirmation, but for the sake of moving forward as a denomination, we wanted to get this far this time. It was an exciting day for the church, and we can’t wait to live into it.”

The large gay presence at the conference celebrated their accomplishments at a Wednesday evening singalong in the cavernous sanctuary of First United Methodist Church in downtown Charlotte.

They also wasted no time in recognizing the historic shift they made. After eliminating a ban on funding for LGBTQ+ affinity groups or ministries, Ashley Boggan, who heads the church’s archives and history commission, announced that its executive committee has approved the creation of a Center for LGBTQ+ United Methodist Heritage.


“This center,” Boggan said, “will allow us to intentionally seek out, preserve, and tell the stories of those whose voices, ministries, and witness have, for far too long, been cast aside and silenced.”

 DEA Agrees to Reclassify Marijuana as Schedule III Controlled Substance



From The Associated Press article


The DEA will move to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug, The Associated Press has learned, a historic shift to generations of American drug policy that could have wide ripple effects across the country.

The proposal, which still must be reviewed by the White House Office of Management and Budget, would recognize the medical uses of cannabis and acknowledge it has less potential for abuse than some of the nation’s most dangerous drugs. However, it would not legalize marijuana outright for recreational use.

The agency’s move, confirmed to the AP on Tuesday by five people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive regulatory review, clears the last significant regulatory hurdle before the agency’s biggest policy change in more than 50 years can take effect.


Currently, Marijuana is classified as more harmful than Schedule II narcotics including meth, fentanyl, and cocaine.

Once the White House signs off, the DEA will take public comments on the plan to move marijuana from its current classification as a Schedule I drug, alongside heroin and LSD. It moves pot to Schedule III, alongside ketamine and some anabolic steroids, following a recommendation from the federal Health and Human Services Department. 

After the public comment period and a review by an administrative judge, the agency would eventually publish the final rule.

“Today, the Attorney General circulated a proposal to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III,” Justice Department Director of Public Affairs Xochitl Hinojosa said in a statement. The DEA is a component of the Department of Justice. “Once published by the Federal Register, it will initiate a formal rulemaking process as prescribed by Congress in the Controlled Substances Act.”

Attorney General Merrick Garland’s signature throws the full weight of the Justice Department behind the move and appears to signal its importance to the Biden administration.

It comes after President Joe Biden called for a review of federal marijuana law in October 2022 and moved to pardon thousands of Americans convicted federally of simple possession of the drug. He has also called on governors and local leaders to take similar steps to erase marijuana convictions.

“Criminal records for marijuana use and possession have imposed needless barriers to employment, housing, and educational opportunities,” Biden said in December. “Too many lives have been upended because of our failed approach to marijuana. It’s time that we right these wrongs.”

The election-year announcement could help Biden, a Democrat, boost flagging support, particularly among younger voters.

Biden and a growing number of lawmakers from both major political parties have been pushing for the DEA decision as marijuana has become increasingly decriminalized and accepted, particularly by younger people. A Gallup poll last fall found 70% of adults support legalization, the highest level yet recorded by the polling firm and more than double the roughly 30% who backed it in 2000.

The DEA didn’t respond to repeated requests for comment.

Possible Impact

Schedule III drugs are still controlled substances and subject to rules and regulations, and people who traffic them without permission could still face federal criminal prosecution. Some critics argue the DEA shouldn’t change course on marijuana, saying rescheduling isn’t necessary and could lead to harmful side effects.

Jack Riley, a former deputy administrator of the DEA, said he had concerns about the proposed change because he thinks marijuana remains a possible “gateway drug,” one that may lead to the use of other drugs. “But in terms of us getting clear to use our resources to combat other major drugs, that’s a positive,” Riley said, noting that fentanyl alone accounts for more than 100,000 deaths in the U.S. a year.

On the other end of the spectrum, others argue marijuana should be treated the way alcohol is.

“While this rescheduling announcement is a historic step forward, I remain strongly committed to continuing to work on legislation like the SAFER Banking Act as well as the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act, which federally deschedules cannabis by removing it from the Controlled Substances Act,” Senate Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York said in a statement. “Congress must do everything we can to end the federal prohibition on cannabis and address longstanding harms caused by the War on Drugs.”

Federal drug policy has lagged behind many states in recent years, with 38 having already legalized medical marijuana and 24 legalizing its recreational use.

That’s helped fuel fast growth in the marijuana industry, with an estimated worth of nearly $30 billion. Easing federal regulations could reduce the tax burden which can be 70% or more for businesses, according to industry groups. It could also make it easier to research marijuana since it’s very difficult to conduct authorized clinical studies on Schedule I substances.

The immediate effect of rescheduling on the nation’s criminal justice system would likely be more muted since federal prosecutions for simple possession have been fairly rare in recent years. But loosening restrictions could carry a host of unintended consequences in the drug war and beyond.

Critics point out that as a Schedule III drug, marijuana would remain regulated by the DEA. That means the roughly 15,000 cannabis dispensaries in the U.S. would have to register with the DEA like regular pharmacies and fulfill strict reporting requirements, something that they loathe to do and that the DEA is ill-equipped to handle.

Then there’s the United States’ international treaty obligations, chief among them the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, which requires the criminalization of cannabis. In 2016, during the Obama administration, the DEA cited the U.S.’ international obligations and the findings of a federal court of appeals in Washington in denying a similar request to reschedule marijuana.

Sources AP News

Marijuana backers eye proposed federal

 regulatory change as an aid to legalizing pot

 in more states


A federal proposal to reclassify marijuana as a less


 dangerous drug has raised the hopes of some pot backers


 that more states will embrace cannabis



ByDAVID A. LIEB 
Associated Press
May 3, 2024, 
 




As the U.S. government moves toward reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug, there may be little immediate impact in the dozen states that have not already legalized cannabis for widespread medical or recreational use by adults.

But advocates for marijuana legalization hope a federal regulatory shift could eventually change the minds — and votes — of some state policymakers who have been reluctant to embrace weed.

“It is very common for a state legislator to tell me, ‘Well, I might be able to support this, but ... I’m not going to vote for something that’s illegal under federal law,’” said Matthew Schweich, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, which advocates for cannabis legalization.

Although a proposal to reclassify marijuana would not make it legal, “it is a historic and meaningful change at the federal level that I think is going to give many state lawmakers a little less hesitation to support a bill,” Schweich added.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration has proposed to shift marijuana from a “Schedule I” drug, which includes heroin and LSD, to a less tightly regulated “Schedule III” drug, which includes ketamine and some anabolic steroids. Federal rules allow for some medical uses of Schedule III drugs. But the proposed change faces a lengthy regulatory process, which may not be complete until after the presidential election.

In the meantime, the proposed federal change could add fresh arguments for supporters of ballot measures seeking to legalize marijuana. Florida voters will decide on a constitutional amendment allowing recreational cannabis this November. Public votes could also be held in several other states, including South Dakota, where supporters plan to submit signatures Tuesday for a third attempt at legalizing recreational marijuana.

Following two previous failed attempts, a Nebraska group is gathering signatures to get two measures onto this year’s ballot: one to legalize medical marijuana and another to allow private companies to grow and sell it.

In North Dakota, criminal defense attorney Mark Friese is a former police officer who is backing a marijuana legalization ballot initiative. He said the proposed federal reclassification could immensely help this year's initiative campaign. North Dakota voters rejected legalization measures in 2018 and 2022 but approved medical marijuana in 2016.

“The bottom line is the move is going to allow intelligent, informed discussion about cannabis legislation instead of succumbing to the historical objection that marijuana is a dangerous drug like LSD or black tar heroin,” Friese said.

Others aren't so sure the reclassification will make a difference.

Jackee Winters, chairperson of an Idaho group backing a ballot initiative to legalize medical marijuana, said it's tough to get would-be supporters to sign their petition.

“People are literally afraid to sign anything in Idaho that has to do with marijuana,” she said. “They’re afraid the cops will be coming to their house."

The proposed federal change may have little affect in 24 states that already legalized recreational marijuana for adults, or in an additional 14 states that allow medical marijuana. But advocates hope it could sway opinions in a dozen other states that either outlaw cannabis entirely or have limited access to products with low levels of THC, the chemical that makes people high.

Georgia has allowed patients with certain illnesses and physician approval to consume low-THC cannabis products since 2015. But until last year, there was no legal way to buy them. Eight dispensaries are now selling the products.

The Georgia Board of Pharmacy last year also issued licenses for low-THC products to 23 independent pharmacies, but the federal DEA in November warned pharmacies that dispensing medical marijuana violated federal law.

Dawn Randolph, executive director of the Georgia Pharmacy Association, said a federal reclassification of marijuana could open the way for pharmacists to treat marijuana products “like every other prescription medication.”

In other states, such as Tennessee, elected leaders remain hesitant to back either medical or recreational marijuana. Tennessee Senate Speaker Randy McNally, a Republican, previously said he wouldn’t support changing state law until the federal government reclassifies marijuana.

But after reports about the DEA’s recommended reclassification, McNally still held off on supporting any push to legalize medical marijuana.

Removing marijuana as a Schedule I drug “would only start the conversation in my mind. It would not end it. There would still be many issues to resolve if the downgrade to Schedule III happens as proposed,” he said Thursday.

A proposal to legalize medical marijuana died in a Kansas Senate committee without a vote this year, and an attempt to force debate in the full Senate failed by a wide margin. The strongest and most influential opposition came from law enforcement officials, who raised concerns that any legalization could invite organized crime and make it difficult to assess whether people are driving under the influence.

Kansas Bureau of Investigation Director Tony Mattivi considers the DEA effort to reschedule marijuana “misguided and politicized,” KBI spokesperson Melissa Underwood said.

The head of the South Carolina state police force also has opposed efforts to legalize medical marijuana, saying it opens the door to other drug use. A legalization bill backed by Republican state Sen. Tom Davis passed the Senate this year but has stalled in a House committee.

“It’s difficult to rewire a lot of people who have been conditioned to think of marijuana in a certain way,” said Davis, who vowed to push a medical marijuana bill again next year if reelected.

Although not fully embracing medical marijuana, Iowa and Texas both have laws allowing limited access to some cannabis products with low levels of THC. Some Texas cities have passed ordinances allowing small amounts of marijuana. But a similar effort in Lubbock, home to Texas Tech University, was derided in a Facebook post by Republican state Rep. Dustin Burrows as part of “nationwide effort by the left to undermine public safety.”

In Wyoming, a decade of pro-marijuana efforts through ballot initiatives and legislation has gotten nowhere. Gov. Mark Gordon, a Republican, has been ambivalent about legalizing medical marijuana and opposes legal recreational pot. The GOP-led Legislature didn’t even debate the latest bill to decriminalize marijuana and legalize medical marijuana.

Yet one organizer, who helped unsuccessful petition efforts in 2022 and 2023, hopes federal reclassification of marijuana nudges more lawmakers to support legalization.

“Resistance will be a lot less palpable,” legalization advocate Apollo Pazell said.

___

Associated Press writers Jeff Amy in Atlanta, Margery Beck in Omaha, Nebraska, Rebecca Boone in Boise, Idaho; Acacia Coronado in Austin, Texas; Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina, Jack Dura in Bismarck, North Dakota, Hannah Fingerhut in Des Moines, Iowa, Mead Gruver in Cheyenne, Wyoming, John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas, and Kimberlee Kruesi in Nashville, Tennessee, contributed to this report.


CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Exiled Chinese businessman's chief-of-staff pleads guilty in US to fraud


Billionaire businessman Guo Wengui, seen here in 2017, is accused of carrying out a massive scheme that defrauded thousands of investors out of more than US$1 billion.


MAY 03, 2024 

NEW YORK — The chief of staff of exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui pleaded guilty on Friday (May 3) to conspiring with him to carry out a massive scheme that defrauded thousands of investors out of more than US$1 billion (S$1.35 billion).

Yvette Wang, 45, pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court to conspiring to commit wire fraud and money laundering.

Her plea came just three weeks before she was set to face trial alongside Guo.


Wang has been held in custody since she and Guo were arrested in March 2023.

Wang now faces up to 10 years in prison when she goes before US District Judge Analisa Torres for sentencing on Sept 10, according to her plea agreement.

"Wang inflicted pain and loss on so many, and she will now be held to account for the harm she and others caused," US Attorney Damian Williams said in a statement.


Wang's attorney did not respond to a request for comment.

Also known as Ho Wan Kwok and Miles Kwok, Guo is a critic of China's Communist Party and a business associate of former US President Donald Trump's one-time adviser Steve Bannon.

Guo has been jailed in Brooklyn since his March 2023 arrest and is set to face trial on May 22 on charges that he and his accomplices defrauded investors in a media company, cryptocurrency and other ventures.

An indictment alleges that Guo took advantage of his prolific online presence and hundreds of thousands of followers by promising outsized financial returns and other benefits to carry out a scheme that helped fund his extravagant lifestyle.

During the May 3 hearing, Wang pleaded guilty to conspiring with Guo and others to fraudulently induce victims to send money through entities including Guo's GTV Media Group, Himalaya Farm Alliance and Himalaya Exchange from 2018 to 2023.

ALSO READ: Terraform Labs and founder Do Kwon found liable in US civil fraud trial

Source: Reuters

Report on China-EU environment, climate cooperation released


Xinhua, May 4, 2024


A think tank report titled "China-EU Cooperation on Environment and Climate: Progress and Prospects" was released globally on Friday.

The report was jointly released by the Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Ecological Civilization, the National Energy Conservation Center, the Xinhua Institute and the Institutes of Science and Development under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

It consists of five sections, namely the introduction, bilateral joint efforts to build a community of all life on Earth, deepened bilateral cooperation to address climate change, concrete progress in bilateral cooperation on the eco-environment, and steady long-term development of bilateral cooperation concerning the environment and climate.

In the face of ecological and environmental challenges, China and the European Union (EU), the largest developing country and the largest union of developed countries, respectively, must shoulder their responsibilities, carry out cooperation on the environment and climate, and work together to maintain sustainable development of the Earth, according to the report.

Noting green as the distinctive color of China-EU cooperation, the report said this cooperation not only enriches and develops the bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership, but also directly advances the environmental governance, trade and investment of both sides, benefiting the entire world.

Looking at the future, the two sides should work together to promote more in-depth and pragmatic cooperation, further dovetail their environmental and climate policies through high-level dialogue and cooperation mechanisms, establish a long-term cooperation framework, and promote global environmental governance and climate action, the report stated.

The report also called for the further strengthening of the bilateral green partnership, and jointly building a community of all life on Earth, and make contributions to promoting a cleaner and more beautiful world. 

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CLIMATE CRISIS 
At least 39 dead in worst flooding in southern Brazil in 80 years

May 03, 2024 
By Associated Press
Residents and their pets evacuate a flooded area after heavy rain
in Sao Sebastiao do Cai, Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, May 2, 2024.

SAO PAULO —

Heavy rains in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul killed 39 people, with 68 more missing, the state civil defense agency said Friday, as record floods devastated cities and forced thousands to leave their homes.

It was the fourth such environmental disaster in a year, following floods in July, September and November 2023 that killed 75 people in total.

The flooding statewide has surpassed that seen during a historic 1941 deluge, according to the Brazilian Geological Service. In some cities, water levels were at their highest since records began nearly 150 years ago, the agency said.

On Thursday, a dam at a hydroelectric plant between the cities of Bento Goncalves and Cotipora partially collapsed and entire cities in the Taquari River valley, like Lajeado and Estrela, were completely overtaken by water. In the town of Feliz, 80 kilometers from the state capital, Porto Alegre, a massively swollen river swept away a bridge that connected it with the neighboring city of Linha Nova.

Operators reported electricity, communications and water cuts across the state. More than 24,000 people had to leave their homes, according to the civil defense agency.

Without internet, telephone service or electricity, residents struggled to provide updates or information to their relatives living in other states. Helicopters flew continually over the cities while stranded families with children awaited rescue on the rooftops.

Isolete Neumann, 58, lives in the city of Lajeado in the Taquari River valley and told The Associated Press she has never before seen what she is seeing now.

"People were making barricades in front of hospitals with sand and gravel. It felt like a horror movie," she said by phone. Some people in her region were so desperate, she added, that they threw themselves into the water currents.

Neumann's neighborhood wasn't inundated but has no running water and she hasn't showered since Tuesday. She said she's collecting rainwater in a basin so she can cook. A clothing store she owns in the city's central area is flooded, she added.

The downpour started Monday and is expected to last at least through Saturday, Marcelo Seluchi, chief meteorologist at the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters, told Brazil's public television network Friday.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva acknowledged the flood victims at a press conference on Friday alongside Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Brasilia.

"The first words from Minister Fumio Kishida in the meeting we held were of solidarity with the people of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, who are victims by one of the largest floods we have ever known. Never before in the history of Brazil had there been such a quantity of rain in one single location," Lula said.

Weather across South America is affected by the climate phenomenon El Niño, a periodic, naturally occurring event that warms surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific region. In Brazil, El Niño has historically caused droughts in the north and intense rainfall in the south.

This year, the impacts of El Niño have been particularly dramatic, with a historic drought in the Amazon. Scientists say extreme weather is happening more frequently because of human-caused climate change.

Dams strain as water, death toll keep rising in south Brazil


AFP
May 3, 2024

More than 350,000 people have suffered some form of property damage, according to authorities - Copyright AFP Anselmo Cunha
Carlos Fabal with Louis Genot in Rio de Janeiro

The death toll from floods and mudslides triggered by torrential storms in southern Brazil climbed to 39 on Friday, officials said, as they warned of worse to come.

As the rain kept beating down, rescuers in boats and planes searched for scores of people reported missing among the ruins of collapsed homes, bridges and roads.

Rising water levels in the state of Rio Grande do Sul were straining dams and threatening the metropolis of Porto Alegre with “unprecedented” flooding, authorities warned.

“Forget everything you’ve seen, it’s going to be much worse in the metropolitan region,” Governor Eduardo Leite said Friday as the streets of the state capital, with a population of some 1.5 million, started flooding after days of heavy downpours in the region.

The state’s civil defense department said at least 265 municipalities had suffered storm damage in Rio Grande do Sul since Monday, injuring 74 people and displacing more than 24,000 — a third of whom have been brought to shelters.

At least 68 people were missing, and more than 350,000 have experienced some form of property damage, according to the latest data.

And there was no end in sight, with officials reporting an “emergency situation, presenting a risk of collapse” at four dams in the state.



– ‘Disastrous cocktail’ –



The level of the state’s main Guiaba river, meanwhile, was estimated to have risen 4.2-4.6 meters (about 13.7-15 feet), but could not be measured as the gauges have washed away, the mayor of Porto Alegre said.

As it kept rising, officials raced to reinforced flood protection.

Porto Alegre’s worst recorded flood was in 1941, when the river reached a level of 4.71 meters.

Elsewhere in the state, several cities and towns have been completely cut off from the world in what Governor Leite described as “the worst disaster in the history” of Rio Grande do Sul.

Many communities have been left without access to drinking water, telephone or internet services.

Tens of thousands have no electricity.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visited the region Thursday, vowing “there will be no lack of human or material resources” in responding to the disaster, which he blamed on climate change.

The central government has sent aircraft, boats and more than 600 soldiers to help clear roads, distribute food, water and mattresses, and set up shelters.

School classes have been suspended state-wide.

“I feel very sorry for all those who live here… I feel pain in my heart,” Maria Luiza, a 51-year-old resident of Sao Sebastiao do Caí, some 40 miles (70 km) from Porto Alegre, told AFP.

In Capela de Santana, north of the state capital, Raul Metzel explained that his neighbors had to abandon their livestock.

“You don’t know if the water will continue to rise or what will happen to the animals, they may soon drown,” he said.

Climatologist Francisco Eliseu Aquino told AFP on Friday the devastating storms were the result of a “disastrous cocktail” of global warming and the El Nino weather phenomenon.

South America’s largest country has recently experienced a string of extreme weather events, including a cyclone in September that claimed at least 31 lives.

Aquino said the region’s particular geography meant it was often confronted by the effects of tropical and polar air masses colliding — but these events have “intensified due to climate change.”

And when they coincide with El Nino, a periodic weather system that warms the tropical Pacific, the atmosphere becomes more unstable, he said.

Extreme flooding hit the state in the last two years at “a level of recurrence not seen in 10,000 years,” said Aquino, who heads the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul’s geography department.