Bill Kaufmann
3/12/2021
A governing Conservative Party battered by controversy trails the New Democratic Party by a whopping 2-1 margin, according to a recent poll.
And by a 14-point margin, more Albertans disapprove of the UCP government’s recent budget than support it, says the Leger online survey of 1,001 Albertans conducted March 5-8.
The poll found 40 per cent support for Rachel Notley’s NDP compared to 20 per cent for the governing UCP, with the Opposition party leading in all areas of the province.
And by a 14-point margin, more Albertans disapprove of the UCP government’s recent budget than support it, says the Leger online survey of 1,001 Albertans conducted March 5-8.
The poll found 40 per cent support for Rachel Notley’s NDP compared to 20 per cent for the governing UCP, with the Opposition party leading in all areas of the province.
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© Provided by Calgary Herald Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley and Premier Jason Kenney.
While the NDP predictably dominated in the Edmonton region with 49 per cent support versus 14 per cent for the Tories, it’s their strength in Calgary and rural areas that’s noteworthy, said Leger’s executive vice-president, Ian Large.
“The UCP led in rural areas and Calgary but that seems to have receded, but there’s still a large number of undecideds,” said Large, noting 27 per cent of respondents didn’t give an opinion provincewide, that number rising to 32 per cent in areas outside the two large cities.
While the NDP predictably dominated in the Edmonton region with 49 per cent support versus 14 per cent for the Tories, it’s their strength in Calgary and rural areas that’s noteworthy, said Leger’s executive vice-president, Ian Large.
“The UCP led in rural areas and Calgary but that seems to have receded, but there’s still a large number of undecideds,” said Large, noting 27 per cent of respondents didn’t give an opinion provincewide, that number rising to 32 per cent in areas outside the two large cities.
In the Calgary area, the NDP garnered 36 per cent of support versus 34 per cent for the UCP, which trailed its opposition foes 34 per cent to 24 per cent in rural Alberta.
In the 2019 provincial election, the UCP captured 55 per cent of the vote to the NDP’s 33 per cent and took 63 of 87 seats.
The government’s run into a political wood chipper with its handling of MLAs taking pandemic beach trips, provincial parks, a faltering economy and approval of coal mining in the Rockies’ eastern slopes.
But given there are two years until the next provincial election and probably brighter days ahead with the COVID-19 pandemic set to fade, Large said those voter trends are hardly carved in stone.
“What this government gets to own is the vaccination program, which is going quite well, and the economic recovery, which is coming,” he said.
“People will forget the missteps because they get to go dancing.”
A Calgary political scientist said he has no doubt the UCP trails the NDP but doubts it’s by 20 points.
And even if they did, a lot of that is likely a protest poll response that can be wooed back by a well-run COVID-19 vaccination rollout and a general end to the pandemic, said Duane Bratt of Mount Royal University.
“Even if the NDP gets 60 or 70 per cent of the vote in Edmonton, they’ve got 19 seats now so maybe they’ll get 20 there,” he said.
If the UCP dominates in the rural areas or smaller centres “and win a third of the Calgary seats, they can easily (win again),” he added.
But there’s no doubting the dramatic slide in fortunes for a UCP that’s led the NDP ever since the right-wing party was created in 2017, said Bratt.
“And there’s clear dissension in the (UCP) ranks,” he said, noting anger within the party over COVID-19 restrictions.
There’s a danger those on the UCP’s right flank could still leave for another right-wing party, given the questions being raised about Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership, said Bratt.
Dark political clouds rained on other parts of the Leger poll for the governing party.
In the 2019 provincial election, the UCP captured 55 per cent of the vote to the NDP’s 33 per cent and took 63 of 87 seats.
The government’s run into a political wood chipper with its handling of MLAs taking pandemic beach trips, provincial parks, a faltering economy and approval of coal mining in the Rockies’ eastern slopes.
But given there are two years until the next provincial election and probably brighter days ahead with the COVID-19 pandemic set to fade, Large said those voter trends are hardly carved in stone.
“What this government gets to own is the vaccination program, which is going quite well, and the economic recovery, which is coming,” he said.
“People will forget the missteps because they get to go dancing.”
A Calgary political scientist said he has no doubt the UCP trails the NDP but doubts it’s by 20 points.
And even if they did, a lot of that is likely a protest poll response that can be wooed back by a well-run COVID-19 vaccination rollout and a general end to the pandemic, said Duane Bratt of Mount Royal University.
“Even if the NDP gets 60 or 70 per cent of the vote in Edmonton, they’ve got 19 seats now so maybe they’ll get 20 there,” he said.
If the UCP dominates in the rural areas or smaller centres “and win a third of the Calgary seats, they can easily (win again),” he added.
But there’s no doubting the dramatic slide in fortunes for a UCP that’s led the NDP ever since the right-wing party was created in 2017, said Bratt.
“And there’s clear dissension in the (UCP) ranks,” he said, noting anger within the party over COVID-19 restrictions.
There’s a danger those on the UCP’s right flank could still leave for another right-wing party, given the questions being raised about Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership, said Bratt.
Dark political clouds rained on other parts of the Leger poll for the governing party.
Though there’s no majority opinion on last month’s 2021-2022 economic blueprint, 41 per cent of respondents said they disapprove of it, while 27 per cent gave their support.But while only four per cent of those polled strongly approve of the budget, those staunchly opposed numbered 20 per cent.
It’s the fruit of a largely status quo budget with a projected $18.2-billion deficit for the coming year that pleased few on the left or right of the political spectrum, said Large.
“If you were looking for spending cuts or wrestling the deficit, you didn’t see that and if you were hoping for support for building roads or education, you wouldn’t see that either,” he said.
To many Albertans, of whom 32 per cent didn’t know or preferred not to answer, the budget was a non-event, said Large.
“This one kind of came and went. Nobody really noticed,” he said.
More noticeable, said Large, is the 33 per cent support for a provincial sales tax compared to 59 per cent opposed to one, though the vast majority of the latter were strongly against it.
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“Five years ago, it would have been 80 per cent opposed, but this has been a conversation for decades in Alberta,” he said.
“And when you blow past an $18-billion deficit, this is an option for more of us.”
Of those surveyed, 69 per cent agreed the government would have to cut spending next year, while 51 per cent said the province was right not to cut spending in its latest budget.
On Friday, the NDP announced it was launching its candidate nomination process in preparation for the 2023 provincial election, saying the UCP’s missteps have given them momentum.
“We have been getting a flurry of interest from people who want to get involved,” said the party’s provincial secretary, Brad Stevens.
BKaufmann@postmedia.com
on Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn
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